Sagarin a number of other good power rating systems compare very well to the Vegas line in terms of anticipating winners and point spreads. If you're interested in looking at comparisons of how well different systems and the Vegas line have done, they are available at this link:Originally Posted by Purple Knight
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/
at "Results."
Even though this has been the worst year for Sagarin of those presented (1999 - 2005), its percent correct is not "significantly" different than that achieved by the closing Vegas line (p = 0.29 while, by standard convention, a "significant" difference would require p = 0.05). In other words, there is not sufficient evidence to conclude that the Vegas line is any better at identifying favorites than Sagarin's system is (and the same can be said for other good power rating systems).
While I'm not going to do it now, I'm confident that I'd get the same result in terms of evidence for differences in effectiveness if I looked at all the results 1999-2005 instead of just 2005.
It does not suck. It does remarkably well. It's amazing that you can have people betting on football, considering everything from weather to injuries to the quarterbacks' girlfriend breaking up with him, establish the lines then have mathematical models that don't "know" about any of that stuff achieve equivalent performance.
People who criticize these models either are unaware of or choose to ignore the overall results they achieve. I like Sagarin mainly because he presents his information in a good format and directly provides for prediction. But quite a few of them are very good.
Reply With Quote
Bookmarks