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  1. #1
    AGS FCS Master carney2's Avatar
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    Patsy Ratings: PL Recruiting Classes

    This is the first – and, given the hours and hours that it took to assemble it – possibly the last Patsy Ratings for Patriot League football recruits. If you think that I’ve jumped the gun, you’re right. I am posting now – with only 3 of the 7 schools reported – because (1) I’m ready, and (2) people are interested NOW, not when Biddle and Kelly and Landis and Gilmore return from vacation. I will update if and when these dawdlers get around to releasing their recruiting lists.

    At the outset let me say that this is one big heap of crapola. If anyone thinks that he or she can rate 18 and 19 year old high school football players or declare one group of these kids superior to another is delusional. This, however, is an attempt to do just that, so what does it say about me? It is, to the best of my knowledge, the first such effort of its type. Many of you will take issue with the methodology or will rail against the outcome because you “know” that [fill in the name of your favorite school] had its best recruiting year ever. I invite you to post your criticism. Even more, I invite you to give us something better. It’s easy to say “you’re wrong.” It is much more difficult to find a better way and actually create the results.

    METHODOLGY

    Quality points: I wouldn’t know a “quality” high school recruit if I tripped over him while he was wearing a name tag. I therefore needed to consult the “experts.” I ran every recruit thru Rivals.com and Scout.com, who maintain data bases for football recruits. Neither is perfect and I found some “holes” in both data bases.

    Rivals has much the larger data base and theoretically lists every senior high school football player who has created some D-I recruiting buzz. Beyond that, they separate the better recruits and rate them with a star system. Five stars is the highest rating and denotes recruits you will eventually find on the rosters at Southern California and Florida. Patriot League schools will get a few players with one-star ratings and an occasional two star guy – seldom more. Scouts simply uses the 5-star system and does not list recruits who generated interest but who do not merit a star.

    I awarded 2 Patsy Points for each recruit included in the Rivals.com data base who did not receive any stars. Two additional points are awarded for each star in his rating. In other words, a one-star recruit earns 4 points (2 for being in the data base + 2 more for the star) for his chosen school. If there was a difference between the Rivals and Scout ratings, I used the higher rating to assign the Patsy Points. A “Rated recruit” is any recruit who was included in either data base.

    (NOTE – There are other recruiting systems. I was either unable to find access and/or too cheap to pay for them. As I said at the outset, this isn’t a perfect rating system.)

    Class Size points: Football is a physical game; a game of attrition. In addition, not all of these recruits are going to be up to the challenge of playing D-I football in a demanding academic environment. Some will get homesick, or will dislike their roommate or position coach, or their girlfriend back home will call to say that she’s pregnant. Males in this age group are among the most unpredictable and irrational creatures on the planet. In any event, quantity is, in many respects, almost as important as quality in the recruiting process.

    It is arbitrary I admit, but I determined that a bare subsistence recruiting class should number 18. If you multiply this number by 4 years you get 72, which gives you three deep plus some leftovers for kickers, kick returners, “athletes,” etc. Most Patriot League preseason rosters number in the 90+ range, so this should not be a problem. I awarded 2 Patsy Points for reaching a class size of 18 and awarded an additional point for every two recruits above that number. For example, a recruiting class of 21 would yield 4 Patsy Points for that school – 2 for reaching 18 + 1 more for numbers 19 and 20 + 1 more for number 21. There is, therefore, no difference between 21 and 22 – the point is awarded either way.

    Distribution points: You need to keep the pipeline filled at each position. I therefore awarded 1 Patsy Point for each of the following positions where the team had at least one recruit: QB, RB, WR, TE, OL, DL, LB, DB, K/P. That is a maximum of 9 points. You can argue that Team X doesn’t need a kicker because last year’s freshman was great, or that Team Y already has 4 quarterbacks and doesn’t need one this year. I made no allowances for any of this. In fact, you have found one of the key deficiencies of this system because nowhere is the fact that a team may or may not have met its needs taken into consideration.

    Speed points: This one was really difficult, but since “speed kills," it needed to be considered. Times for the 40 are not tattooed on a recruit’s forehead and are rarely included in the college’s press release. Rivals or Scout will frequently (but not always) include this information for players in their data base. Other than that it is a matter of getting lucky with online resources. Freely admitting that I may have missed a “burner” or two, I awarded the Patsy Points for speed as follows: 4.8 – 4.701 = 1 point; 4.7 – 4.601 = 2 points; 4.6 – 4.501 = 3 points; etc.

    Trigger points: Quarterback is the most important position on any football team. I have therefore determined that demonstrably superior quarterback recruits should earn additional Patsy Points for their schools. I have again used the Rivals and Scout data bases to determine “superior,” and if you view this as merely a way to award additional Quality points, so be it. I have awarded one point for each QB recruit that is in the Rivals data base without any stars, and one additional point for each star assigned by either rating system. Again, I use the higher rating of the two systems in each case. Fordham recruit, Sean Mara, for instance, is 2-star rated by Rivals, but only receives one star from Scout. I used the Rivals 2-star rating to award 3 Patsy points to the Rams.

    Jumbo points: Size matters. Frank Tavani’s Lafayette teams have set the gold standard here. Andy Coen at Lehigh saw the results for the first time last year and has vowed that it won’t happen again. 35% of this year’s Lehigh recruiting class are dozers for down in the trenches – and Andy may very well have set the gold standard for defensive linemen with this group. Since Patriot League teams are not stealing skill position recruits from Notre Dame or Michigan – the kind of guys who could make a difference despite what is going on in the lines – my assumption is that, for the time being, line play – and the size of the people making that play – is critical. I therefore assigned 1 Patsy point for each OL recruit of 275 pounds or more and 1 point for each DL recruit of 250 pounds or more.

    Players to Watch: As much as I’d like to list everyone’s entire recruiting class, I set a limit and picked out a few recruits who caught my eye. I tried to focus on guys whose names could very well be called this fall, but threw in one or two with longer term appeal. You may not agree, or counter with “How about Smith – or Jones – or Whatsit?!!” On the other hand, you could create your own ratings. Good luck with that.

    Mea culpa: I tried to be as fair and dispassionate in creating and researching these ratings as I could. I confess however, to knowing far more about Lafayette and Lehigh recruiting than about the other five schools. I can’t be sure how I did. You be the judge.

    PATSY RATINGS FOR THE CLASS OF 2011 (so far):

    1. LAFAYETTE (80 Patsy Points)

    Quality = 44 (14 Rated recruits)
    Class Size = 8 (30 recruits)
    Distribution = 8
    Speed = 14
    Trigger = 5
    Jumbo = 1

    Players to Watch: Nick BANDONI, LB; Patrick CAREY/Marc QUILLING/Peter RAYMOND, QBs; Tom Kondash, K/P; Mark LAYTON, WR; Nathan PADILA, WR

    Summary: This group could wear out that monster scoreboard at Fisher Stadium.

    2. LEHIGH (68 Patsy Points)

    Quality = 34 (11 Rated recruits)
    Class Size = 8 (29 recruits)
    Distribution = 9
    Speed = 8
    Trigger = 2
    Jumbo = 7

    Players to Watch: Charles BRALLIER, DL, J.B. CLARK, QB; Trace CISNEROS, QB; Dan JONES, DL; Tom RANDAZZA, K; Phil WINNETT, DL

    Summary: Wendy’s once asked “Where’s the beef?” Answer: it’s in Bethlehem, PA

    3. FORDHAM (42 Patsy Points)

    Quality = 20 (5 Rated recruits)
    Class Size = 6 (25 recruits)
    Distribution = 7
    Speed = 4
    Trigger = 5
    Jumbo = 0

    Players to Watch: Clay BUSCH, QB; Andre Delaire, LB; Nick MAGIERA, LB; Sean MARA, QB; Martin XAVIER, RB

    Summary: This group should help the Rams move back into contention.

  2. #2
    First Class FCS Ruler cosmo here's Avatar
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    :beerchug: :beerchug:

    Carney, based on my new ratings system, I give you three cheers and two beer chugs for your passion, effort, and time spent breaking down Patriot League recruiting. You'll outdo RichH yet . .

  3. #3
    AGS FCS Master carney2's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cosmo here
    You'll outdo RichH yet . .
    RichH (now RichH2) is my hero, my mentor, the guru of all PL recruiting postors. The sequel is never better than the original.

    Confession: I merely took RichH's info and added a heavy dose of anal retention.

  4. #4
    FCS Master youwouldno's Avatar
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    Using weight as a measure is problematic because some guys can add a lot of bulk whereas others are near the max already. For instance, Furman a few years ago brought in a raw 6'7, 260 lb tackle, who now starts at LT and measures 6'7, 320. Compare that to a guard we bring in who is 6'2, 300, but isn't going to add weight (though obviously you hope a college conditioning program will make for better athleticism). Scouts talk about "frame" size in that context.

    It also seems odd to punish a team for not having a need at a particular position, but then, with such limited information I guess it's going to be totally arbitrary regardless.

  5. #5
    AGS FCS Champion RichH2's Avatar
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    IOk Carney cannot disagree with your methodology too much but your Quality points are way off on LU. There are 10 listed recruits. I do not have my list but off the top Cisneros*,Randazza*,Rackley*,Brallier**,Clark* Clerge,,Doukouslis,linder,Shaw,McNamara and Walters from last yr,he prepped. I probably missed one or 2 but I am old and lazy.

    Carney the task you have undertaken is something I've thought about and even started a couple of times but just too much work. Your results are good but perhaps Andy, myself and a few other s might help by feeding you the info on each of our schools for you to plug into your formula and we'll all help on Bucknell, and HC.

    Now that you've done the really hard work don't give up if we work together this is something the PL fans can fight over for years.

  6. #6
    AGS FCS Champion RichH2's Avatar
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    Thank you for the kudos Carney but Andy is the man and now you . I'm like the old gunfighter time for me to retire and let you young fellows takeover.

  7. #7
    FCS Expert Fordham's Avatar
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    Good stuff and a heckuva lot of work there carney. I'm a fan of any PL thread on here, so hopefully this one will get some legs as well.

    2 comments and 1 question:

    *our marquee recruit at this point is Nicholas Mageira, who is a 2 Star on rivals and is listed as having a written offer from Eastern Michigan and was reportedly asked to be a preferred walk-on at Northwestern. He's at the top of our "Players to Watch" group and he'll likely play at SS. Here is what I posted about him on our Fordham board:
    1. Nicholas Magiera; 6' 204lbs; LB; Barrington (IL); A 2 star LB on both Scout & Rivals. He had an offer from Eastern Michigan and interest listed from Air Force, Northwestern and almost every directional Illinois school you could imagine (Northern, Southern & Eastern). Listed as Illinois All-State 'Special Mention' here: Tribune HS Football All-State Following is his "Coach's Comments" section on Scout (I don't subscribe so I'm assuming this is all public info: Coach's Comments "Just a freak of nature. Explosive hitter, great hits. Played fullback as a sophomore and moved to the defensive backfield as a junior. Broke Jamil Walker's (Wisconsin) 200-meter dash record at the state track meet.". Given his size and speed and our defensive backfield needs, think he'll be a SS for us? Regardless, sounds like a great pick up.
    2. Quasand Lewis from CA is supposed to be our second kid most likely to make an impact this year. He had a written offer from Colorado St.

    Quasand Lewis ; 5'6 191lbs; All purpose back; Rancho Cucamonga (CA); 4.72/40; 3.6 GPA; SPARQ: 80.48. Had offers from Colorado St., Cal Poly & CS Sacramento.
    Question - I threw this one up in on Lehigh board to you but where on rivals are you getting your numbers from? Here is the post I put up on their board to you (and others):

    In terms of listed commits, here's all I see on Rivals currently (2/20): Bucknell (Shantz Medley, Paul Brazinski); Colgate (Charles Babb, Nick Cvetic, Andrew Woizesko); Fordham (Kevin Conachan; Andre Delaire, Quasand Lewis; Nick Magiera [2 Stars]; Sean Mara [2 Stars]); Georgetown (Mychal Harrison); Holy Cross (Anthony DiMichele); Lafayette (Nick Bandoni); Lehigh (Charles Brallier [2 Stars]; Billy Dokouslis; RJ McNamara).

    Interesting to note that Lewis (Colorado St.) & Magiera (Eastern Michigan) both had FBS offers listed, as opposed to just interest. Also, interesting to note that Lewis was not on our announced list but the word is that he is indeed coming (hope so).

    Back to topic - not sure why my numbers vary with carney's or anyone else's. Again, I'm simply looking at those who have committed to each PL school v. just interest. If I broaden the search ("Advanced search", "Choose School", etc.), I get 10 kids for Fordham, including some who have chosen other schools as well as a few who still have "list" up there. I see 15 for Lafayette (that includes some Penn commits who showed interest in Laf as well as some others) and 30 kids for Lehigh, but again, many of them have committed elsewhere.

    Is there a search method I'm missing here? What accounts for the disparity in results?

  8. #8
    AGS FCS Champion RichH2's Avatar
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    Neither rivals nor scout make it easy .Rivals is not just one database. I E ,u can go to Ohiopreps for nice writeup on Sean linder, if you go to national database he is not listed. W/o subscription and even with one sometimes you have to go into the different db s for various preps and colleges and states. Both systems update fairly regularly. Don"t worry about your numbers varying. Andy on LC board ,the best and most thorough on rivals and scout ,Carney ,PaRam ,myself all come up with a little bit different results. In order really to clarify the lists we all should post where we got the info ie, rivals ,scout and at which site

  9. #9
    AGS FCS Master carney2's Avatar
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    This is a rookie first at bat, so I am taking all comments/suggestions seriously. Will not be able to comment for a while - possibly not until tomorrow.

  10. #10
    Major FCS Ruler Pard94's Avatar
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    Carney, I am shocked. First of all this type of list assumes that there is quality within any recruting class...I assumed you were of the mind that there is no such thing as these guys haven't played a down of college ball. Your rating system is built upon a foundation of optimism. Didn't know you had it in you.

    Great job on this. I suspect you will get skewered before it is all said and done as this kind of thing will produce a loser and I suspect that won't go over well. But screw 'em! I am even willing to overlook the fact that you didn't mention me as one of your hero posters. Afterall, wasn't it I who introduced you to this site?:smiley_wi :thumbsup:

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