Ok so in my boredom and after spending way too long browsing the boards and reading anti BSC/anti Griz posts repeatedly, i decided to do some studying. This is what resulted:
First we have the CAA:
Team - Record - Sagarin Rank - Avg Sag. Rank of Conf Opps - Avg Sag. Rank of OOC Opps - Avg Sag. Rank of All Opps
UNH ---------------(8-1) - 98 - 137.75 - 202.33 - 155.36
UMass ------------(5-4) - 115 - 134.25 - 135.33 - 134.55
Maine -------------(4-5) - 147 - 130.25 - 172.00 - 134.36
Hofstra -----------(4-5) - 154 - 129.38 - 166.33 - 139.46
Northeastern ----(1-8) - 192 - 126.00 - 110.67 - 121.82
URI ----------------(1-8) - 193 - 125.88 - 137.33 - 129.00
Villanova ---------(8-1) - 46 - 125.50 - 138.67 - 129.09
Richmond --------(8-1) - 57 - 118.75 - 178.33 - 135.00
William & Mary --(8-1) - 60 - 126.75 - 136.00 - 129.27
Delaware --------(6-3) - 116 - 111.38 - 158.67 - 124.64
JMU ---------------(4-5) - 117 - 111.25 - 150.67 - 122.00
Towson ----------(2-7) - 195 - 109.88 - 153.33 - 121.73
And now for the BSC:
Team - Record - Sagarin Rank - Avg Sag. Rank of Conf Opps - Avg Sag. Rank of OOC Opps - Avg Sag. Rank of All Opps
UM ----(9-0) - 80 - 144.87 - 170.33 - 151.82
EWU --(6-3) - 103 - 142.00 - 133.00 - 139.55
NAU ---(5-4) - 109 - 141.25 - 60.00 - 119.10
WSU --(5-4) - 113 - 140.75 - 113.33 - 133.27
MSU ---(6-3) - 122 - 139.63 - 149.33 - 142.27
CSUS --(4-5) - 158 - 135.13 - 121.33 - 131.36
UNC ---(3-7) - 174 - 133.13 - 148.0 - 137.18
PSU ---(2-8) - 176 - 132.88 - 131.00 - 132.26
ISU ---(0-10) - 204 - 129.38 - 108.67 - 123.72
Average Sagarin Ranking of CAA teams is 124.16
Average Sagarin Ranking of BSC teams is 137.66
Average Sagarin Ranking of all CAA opponents (Strength of schedule) = 131.37
Average Sagarin Ranking of all BSC opponents = 134.51
The difference in the entire SOS for all teams in CAA and BSC is only a 3.14 point edge to the CAA. And if only averaging the Top 5 BSC and Top 6 CAA teams it is even a narrower 137.20 BSC and 134.65 CAA. A difference of only 2.55 points.
For future purposes assume Top 5 BSC teams to be UM, EWU, NAU, WSU, and MSU
For future purposes assume Top 6 CAA teams to be Nova, Richmond, W&M, UNH, Delaware, and UMass
Also assume in the CAA that Richmond beats Georgetown and Delaware loses to Navy on 11/14
Assume for the BSC that EWU beats SUU on 11/14 and Weber beats Cal Poly on 11/21
And last, as D-2 teams do not have Sagarin Ratings and hence do not have a rank, i used a rank of 246 which is one lower than the worst Division 1 team for all D-2 teams to calculate averages.
Total OOC Record by Top 6 CAA - 16-2 (11-0 vs FCS)(1-0 vs D-2)(4-2 vs FBS)
Total OOC Record by Top 5 BSC - 9-6 (6-0 vs FCS)(3-0 vs D-2)(0-6 vs FBS)
Total OOC Record by All CAA - 23-13 (21-5 vs FCS)(2-0 vs D-2)(4-8 vs FBS)
Total OOC Record by All BSC - 12-14 (9-2 vs FCS)(3-1 vs D-2)(0-11 vs FBS)
A) Average Sagarin Ranking of All OOC teams faced by CAA Top 6 = 158.2
A) Average Sagarin Ranking of All OOC teams faced by BSC Top 5 = 125.2
B) Average Sagarin Ranking of All OOC teams which CAA Top 6 defeated = 171.5
B) Average Sagarin Ranking of All OOC teams which BSC Top 5 defeated = 171.7
C) Average Sagarin Ranking of All OOC teams which defeated CAA Top 6 = 52.0
C) Average Sagarin Ranking of All OOC teams which defeated BSC Top 5 = 55.3
*Note the 33 point difference in the level of competition faced by the BSC as opposed to the CAA
D) Average Sagarin Ranking of FBS Opponents of Top 6 CAA teams = 77.83
D) Average Sagarin Ranking of FBS Opponents of Top 5 BSC teams = 55.33
E) Average Sagarin Ranking of FCS OOC Opponents of Top 6 CAA teams = 194.09
E) Average Sagarin Ranking of FCS OOC Opponents of Top 5 BSC teams = 134.67
*Note the 59.42 point difference in FCS OOC level of competition faced by the BSC as opposed to the CAA
*Also note that there is a 22.5 point difference in strength of FBS opponents faced by BSC
From exhibits B and C above, its reasonable to say that the CAA and the BSC essentially fared the same in OOC play. The CAA posted more OOC wins but also played a weaker OOC schedule by 23 points per team as shown in exhibit A.
From exhibit D i believe it can be reasoned that the CAA won 4 FBS games this season as to none for the BSC due to the 22.5 point gap in strength of their opponents as opposed to ours.
Listed below will be the FBS opponents of the Top 6 CAA teams with the results and the Top 5 BSC teams with the results (Winning teams will be in bold):
Nova 27 @ Temple 24
Richmond 24 @ Duke 16
W&M 26@ Virginia 14
UNH 23 @ Ball St 16
UMass 17 @ Kansas St 21
Delaware ?? @ Navy ??
Weber St 22 @ Wyoming 29
Weber St 23 @ Colorado St 24
EWU 7 @ Cal 59
NAU 17 @ Arizona 34
NAU 14 @ Mississippi 38
MSU 3 @ Michigan St 44
If we use the the top team in FCS based on the Sagarin Ratings which is Villanova at #46 with a 76.13 rating (not to be confused with the position rankings used above) and factor in the 3.11 point advantage given to home teams (as all FCS vs FBS games occur on the FBS field), all teams ranked #55 (Wake Forest with a 72.96 rating) and lower should be winnable games for the top tier FCS teams.
Team - Sagarin Ranking - Observation
Temple - 65 - Villanova got the win vs a team that they would have been favored against on a neutral field.
Duke - 70 - Again, Richmond won a game that, according to the ratings, would've been basically a pick em.
Virginia - 66 - William & Mary had the best win of the CAA teams but the game was still technically a winnable one according to Virginia's #66 ranking.
Ball St - 162 - New Hampshire should have won this game and did vs a team that actually ranks below Sac St and is a 1-8 team in the lowly MAC. This almost doesn't count as a quality win.
Kansas St - 63 - UMass lost this one 21-17 @ K St in a good matchup that was only borderline a "winnable game".
Navy - 41 - Game is on 11/14 but do not look for Delaware to compete in this one as Navy should win handily.
Wyoming - 107 - Higgins had a bad day and WSU still hung aroung and had chances to win it. WSU really should have came away with the W in this one.
Colorado St - 97 - Again, WSU had many chances to steal this game and come away with the W.
Cal - 25 - EWU really didnt have a chance in this one and the 59-7 outcome no surprise.
Arizona - 14 - NAU probably competed better in this one than the number say they should have by only going down 34-17.
Mississippi - 38 - NAU hung around in the first half and was tied 14-14 late in the 2nd Quarter but again, this game should not have been close.
Michigan St - 51 - MSU got blown away in what is really the only bad showing for the BSC vs a potentially (though still unlikely) beatable opponent.
In summary, the CAA won 4 games against FBS opponents that the Sagarin Ratings said they should have been competitive in and lost only 1. The Navy game should be a blow out and isnt a "winnable" game for the Blue Hens. The BSC on the other hand played tougher FBS competition and should have been dismantled in 3 of their games but NAU kept 2 close until the 2nd half. EWU was throttled. The Michigan St game is borderline but going by the #55 team cutoff can be considered a non "winnable" game and therefore the results are not relevant. Weber on the other hand SHOULD have beaten both WY and CSU and did not. These two games were obviously the best chances for a BSC victory in OOC FBS play but were not capitalized on.
But also to be considered is the fact that Weber is only the 4th best team in the league according to the rankings which would then make them comparable to UNH in the CAA. Weber lost by 1 point to #97 CSU and 7 points to #107 WY while UNH beat #162 Ball St by 7. It is likely that WSU could have had a similar performance to that of UNH's against Ball St.
Overall, i think the two conferences actually compare well with one another and while there is no doubt that the top 3 in the CAA are of the same caliber as only the Griz in relation to Big Sky; EWU, NAU, WSU, and MSU all compare well to UNH, Delaware, and UMass. I cant wait till playoff time to find out! Too bad the Sky will only get one team other than the Griz in and the second team will likely be at a western team in round 1 (and likely at WA-Griz in round 2). Would really like to send them to the CAA and see the Sky bring home a W.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt09.htm
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