I had some time on my hands and find this kind of stuff interesting, so I tried to run as many scenarios as I could to figure out this stuff. I'll give you the basic assumptions I made and the standings and schedules, then run through what I found. It's certainly possible I screwed up somewhere, so anybody who would like to add corrections please feel free.
Assumption 1: The AQ will have no more than two conference losses. (JMU, NU, TU, URI, HU eliminated).
Assumption 2: The remaining contenders will beat the eliminated teams whenever they play (I know this is dangerous, but even I don't have the time to run all the options if we include unlikely upsets).
So the standings of the "potential champs" right now are:
UR 5-0
VU 4-1
UNH 3-1
W&M 3-1
UD 3-2
UMass 2-2
Maine 2-2
And the remaining games between these teams are:
UMass@Maine (10/31)
VU@UR (11/7)
UNH@W&M (11/14)
Maine@UNH (11/21)
UD@VU (11/21)
W&M@UR (11/21)
Barring a doomsday scenario I'll mention at the end, this will probably come down to the 0 and 1 loss teams. The first game between them is the 11/7 Nova @ UR contest, so what happens if either team wins?
Scerario 1: UR beats Nova
This is the easiest option. It leaves UR at a max of one loss, with only two teams, W&M and UNH (who play the very next week) that can match them. There are three possibilities:
1) UR beats W&M - UR is undefeated and wins the conference outright.
2) W&M beats UR AND UNH - UR and W&M finish tied at 7-1, W&M wins H2H tiebreaker.
3) W&M beats UR AND UNH beats W&M - UR and UNH finish tied at 7-1. They did not play H2H and they would finish tied against common opponents (UNH loss to UMass, UR loss to W&M). The league's third tiebreaker for teams from different divisions is road wins. UR would be 4-0 on the road, UNH 3-1. UR wins the AQ in this situation.
Boiled down, if UR beats Nova (and our "no upsets" assumption holds), they win the AQ unless W&M runs the table.
Scenario 2: Nova beats UR
This is more complicated, as it gives us four teams tied at one conference loss with two weeks to play (and gives the two loss teams a bit of hope) We can further break it out based upon the outcome of the W&M/UNH tilt:
1)W&M beats UNH and:
A) Nova beats UD - This means Nova finishes with one loss, tied with the winner of the W&M @ UR tilt. Since Nova would hold a H2H win over both, they would win the AQ regardless of the outcome of that game. or:
B) UD beats Nova - Only UR and W&M remain with one loss. The winner of their game wins the AQ (and the conference outright).
If the UNH/W&M game goes the other way, we get
2)UNH beats W&M and:
A) UNH beats Maine - UNH ends the season with one loss. Only Nova and UR can tie them. We can break it out further:
i) W&M beats UR - The outcome of Nova/UD doesn't matter, UNH is the AQ. Either UNH wins the title outright with a UD win or wins a H2H tiebreaker if Nova wins. or:
ii) UR beats W&M - Now the UD/Nova game matters.
a) Nova beats UD - Nova, UR, UNH finish in a three way tie. The division tie is broken first, so Nova knocks out UR on H2H. UNH then beats Nova the same way. UNH wins the AQ. or:
b) UD beats Nova - UNH and UR finish in a two way tie. They have no H2H, and finish with the same 5-1 record against common opponents (UR loss to Nova, UNH loss to Umass). UR wins via the aforementioned road wins tiebreaker, 4 to 3. UR wins the AQ.
OR:
B) Maine beats UNH - UNH joins W&M and a host of others with two losses. We're back to Nova and UR
i) Nova beats UD - Nova finishes with one loss, wins AQ either outright (with UR loss to W&M) or via H2H tiebreaker (if UR beats W&M) or:
ii) UD beats Nova - UR the last one loss team remaining; we're nearing our doomsday possibility
a) UR beats W&M - UR only one loss team, wins AQ. BUT IF...
b) W&M beats UR - There are no one loss teams. ALL the two loss teams are back in it. I have no idea how to work all the different tiebreak possibilities; in the end there is only chaos (and, perhaps, blood).
The takeaway, as best as I can figure it:
UR wins if they win out.
If UR beats Nova, W&M wins if they win out.
If Nova beats UR, nobody entirely controls their own fate.
If I did that right, there are your possibilities. At least until Towson or URI or JMU go beat somebody and wreck the thing all to heck. Also, if anybody knows how to set that up in outline form (with the ability to indent multiple times to show a hierarchy) on this site, let me know; I'd love to make it visually clearer.
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