Probable winners:

Ralph might be able to get Dr. Massey to do a better job of this but here are my estimates of probable winners and how probable they are to win, with the most probable winner first. I used Sagarin because his reporting format makes it easiest and Massey says his system is not designed for prediction. But I'm thinking one should probably get something similar using the Massey system and doing it properly instead of crudely as I did. Maybe Ralph can get Dr. Massey to do some so I can see if I'm in the ballpark. By "probable" I'm saying I'm estimating that favorites by a certain predicted margin can be expected to win a certain percentage of the time. For example: Sagarin favors App to beat Lafayette by 21.28 and I'm estimating that favorites by that system in I-AA games can be expected to win about 90 percent of the time (0.90).

App State (0.90) over Lafayette
New Hampshire (0.85) over Colgate
Texas State (0.66) over Georgia Southern
Southern Illinois (0.64) over Eastern Illinois
Northern Iowa (0.58) over Eastern Washington
Hampton (0.56) over Richmond
Montana (0.53) over Cal Poly
Nicholls State (0.52) over Furman

What that basically boils down to in my eyes is that it'd surprise me if Lafayatte and or Colgate won (1 chance in 10 and 1 in 7). But all of the other games are in the 1 in 2 to 1 in 3 range so whoever wins wouldn't represent anything unusual. The bottom four are basically coin flips.

My gut feeling is:

App State over Lafayette
New Hampshire over Colgate
Georgia Southern over Texas State
Southern Illinois over Eastern Illinois
Northern Iowa over Eastern Washington
Richmond over Hampton
Montana over Cal Poly
Furman over Nicholls State