One week until the playoff selections are announced so this will be my final playoff prognostication breakdown of the season as there won't be much time to speculate on the potential selections after next week's games before they're announced. I broke it down by conference listing the teams in order from where I think (using Massey as a guide) each team sits in terms of easiest path to the playoffs (or who's already in) to toughest path within their conference. You can see all of Massey's updated numbers at https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/fcs/ratings. The numbers in brackets behind each team is Massey's expected remaining wins and losses and the percentage in parenthesis behind each remaining game is Massey's percentage that each team wins that respective game. Using Massey percentages to project the remaining games I put together what I think would be the field at the bottom of this post if it all played out like it's supposed to (which we all know it won't).
Big Sky
Montana St joined Montana as a lock and both are almost certainly going to be seeded despite what happens in their matchup this week - I think Montana would be the #2 seed with a win while Montana St would probably be the #3 (behind Furman) if they win. Idaho may have played themselves out of the seeds with a loss @Weber St but they're still likely in the playoffs and, assuming they beat Idaho St this week, might still sneak out a seed. That UC Davis/Sac St game is interesting - Massey sees it as virtually a toss up so if UC Davis wins they've almost got to get in over Sac St but would that Stanford win be enough to get Sac St in at 7-4 (4-4)? I'd tend to think so but they would be in for a sweat. It looks like the Big Sky will get at least 4 in and possibly 5 if UC Davis wins this week - 2 of them should be seeded with a possibility of 3 seeds.
Locked in
Montana 9-1 (6-1) [0.43/0.57] - Montana St (43%)
Montana St 8-2 (6-1) [0.57/0.43] - @Montana (57%)
Likely in
Idaho 7-3 (5-2) [0.89/0.11] - Idaho St (89%)
Sac St 7-3 (4-3) [0.52/0.48] - @UC Davis (52%)
Work left to do
UC Davis 6-4 (4-3) [0.48/0.52] - Sac St (48%)
CAA
Three CAA teams locked themselves into the playoffs yesterday but there's a still a lot to be decided in terms of who amongst them is seeded first/higher. I think the winner of that Delaware/Nova game is likely looking at a #5-#7 seed. Nova winning would be a boost for Albany since their head-to-head win over Nova probably gets them the highest CAA seed (as long as they beat Monmouth) but I'm thinking they've got a strong shot at a seed regardless. I'm having a hard time seeing more than one playoff bid from the group in the "work left to do" category. I think the loser of Richmond/William & Mary is out and even if W&M wins I think the bubble is probably too tough for them to crack. Likewise, if URI beats Towson I think they're still on the wrong side of the bubble but a Richmond win might give them a bit more hope. I'm thinking 3 playoff bids is the number for the CAA unless Richmond beats W&M, then it's 4, with 1-2 seeds (probably in the #5-#8 range).
Locked in
Delaware 8-2 (6-1) [0.59/0.41] - Nova (59%)
Villanova 8-2 (6-1) [0.41/0.59] - @Delaware (41%)
Albany 8-3 (6-1) [0.61/0.39] - Monmouth (61%)
Work left to do
Richmond 7-3 (6-1) [0.42/0.58] - @W&M (42%)
William & Mary 6-4 (4-3) [0.58/0.42] - Richmond (58%)
Rhode Island 6-4 (4-3) [0.60/0.40] - @Towson (60%)
MVFC
The list of teams here didn't shrink but the number of bids they'll get may have with UNI's loss to Missouri St. SDSU is locked in and I'm thinking they've already locked up the #1 seed as well (although it's very unlikely they lose to Missouri St anyway). USD has gotten back-to-back huge wins and might be looking at a #4 seed if they beat WIU. NDSU picked up a monster win over SIU and I think they're probably in even if they lose at UNI next week but it would be a sweat - I think they could sneak into a #7 or #8 seed with a win. The rest is a mess... IMO the only simple thing is UNI - they're in if they beat beat NDSU (which means they would have wins over 2 or 3 fellow MVFC bubble teams) and out if they lose. Even the Illinois St @ UND game isn't simple - I think UND is in with a win but I wonder about Illinois St at 7-4 as that EIU loss could come back to bite them if both teams are on the bubble. SIU and YSU should get to 7-4 - both are probably in pretty good shape if they get there since SIU has wins over FBS NIU and Austin Peay and YSU has a convincing win over SIU (an NDSU win over UNI would help YSU's chances). I still think the MVFC gets 6 bids but the bubble tightened yesterday so 5 is still a possibility but 7 is now most likely out of the question. There might just be 2 seeds in this group with a chance at 3.
Locked in
SDSU 10-0 (7-0) [0.96/0.04] - Missouri St (96%)
USD 8-2 (6-1) [0.98/0.02] - @WIU (98%)
Likely in
NDSU 7-3 (4-3) [0.72/0.28] - @UNI (72%)
Work left do to
SIU 6-4 (3-4) [0.99/0.01] - Indiana St (99%)
UNI 6-4 (5-2) [0.28/0.72] - NDSU (28%)
YSU 6-4 (4-3) [0.86/0.14] - @Murray St (86%)
UND 6-4 (4-3) [0.62/0.38] - Illinois St (62%)
Illinois St 6-4 (4-3) [0.38/0.62] - @UND (38%)
SOCON
Mercer joined Furman amongst the locks in the SOCON (well done Bears for leaving the committee no outs this year to snub you with). Furman should be the #2 or #3 seed as long as they take care of business against Wofford. Western Carolina is probably in although in the unlikely event that they end their season with a bad loss to VMI they might not want to get too comfy. Chattanooga is going to be interesting - unless a meteor hits Bama's sideline next week they'll finish 7-4 with a good win over Mercer but a bad loss to UNA and nothing else of note on their resume (although Samford beating UTM could help them). I think they're going to be right in the middle of the bubble so who knows. It seems likely this league gets at least 3 bids and could get 4 with a little help.
Locked in
Furman 9-1 (7-0) [0.96/0.04] - @Wofford (96%)
Mercer 8-3 (6-2)
Likely in
Western Carolina 7-3 (5-2) [0.80/0.20] - @VMI (80%)
Work left to do
Chattanooga 7-3 (6-2) [0.00/1.00] - @Bama (~0%)
OVC/Big South
Things are finally starting to clear up in the OVC/Big South. Gardner-Webb is the autobid with a win over CSU and out if they lose (giving UTM the auto). UTM is likely in regardless if they beat Samford since they would get them to 9-2. EIU picked up a big win over Tennessee St yesterday but still seems destined for the bubble even at 8-3 - Illinois St winning @UND next Saturday would help EIU's chances I think but even with that it seems unlikely especially if UTM is already getting an at-large. This league has got a good chance of getting one at-large but two seems pretty unlikely.
Work left to do
UT Martin 8-2 (5-1) [0.54/0.46] - @Samford (54%)
EIU 7-3 (3-2) [0.85/0.15] - @RMU (85%)
Gardner-Webb 6-4 (4-1) [0.81/0.19] - CSU (81%)
Others
The autobids from the Patriot, SLC, and UAC will all come from teams in this group. In the Southland Nicholls has already locked up the autobid. In the Patriot a Lafayette win over Lehigh would secure the autobid and eliminate Holy Cross - Lafayette might have a shot at an at-large at 8-3 but that would be a bad loss to take the day before Selection Sunday. In the UAC the top two play each other with the winner getting the auto - UCA needs to win or they're out but APSU might have a shot if they lose although I think their convincing loss to SIU early in the season might doom them. UIW and NCCU are going to be polarizing for at-large consideration - UIW has a sub-D1 win and a forfeit win so they'll only have 7 actual D1 wins at most and none of those wins are all that impressive. NCCU could still be the MEAC's Celebration Bowl rep if Morgan St beats Howard next week but if not I don't think it's a given they're in at 9-2 (with sub-D1 win) either - they have a decent win over Elon but that's it and Massey rates them as the #53 team in the FCS right now with a finishing SOS of #99 so the computers won't like them. In short APSU (at 8-3), Lafayette (at 8-3), NCCU, and UIW all have a shot at an at-large but I don't think anyone from this group makes it outside of the autos.
Locked in
SLC Auto: Nicholls 5-4 (6-0) [0.41/0.59] - @SLU (45%)
Work left to do
Austin Peay 8-2 (5-0) [0.65/0.35] - UCA (65%)
Lafayette 8-2 (4-1) [1.18/0.82] - Fordham (46%), @Lehigh (73%)
North Carolina Central 8-2 (3-1) [0.91/0.09] - Delaware St (91%)
Incarnate Word 7-2 (5-1) [0.90/0.10] - @HCU (90%)
UCA 7-3 (4-1) [0.35/0.65] - @APSU (35%)
Holy Cross 6-4 (4-1) [0.93/0.07] - Georgetown (93%)
The Field
So there's 14 at-large available (1 more than last year with the Big South and OVC merging) - this is where I see them landing if things go to plan based on Massey odds over the final week (which of course they won't) - the lists includes the autos so there's one additional team for each conference on top of the at-larges:
Big Sky: 3 - Montana St (9-2), Montana (9-2), Idaho (8-3), Sac St (8-3)
CAA: 2 - Delaware (9-2), Albany (9-3), Villanova (8-3)
MVFC: 5 - SDSU (11-0), USD (9-2), NDSU (8-3), UND (7-4), YSU (7-4), SIU (7-4)
SOCON: 3 - Furman (10-1), Mercer (8-3), WCU (8-3), Chattanooga (7-4)
OVC/Big South: 1 - Gardner-Webb (7-4 - autobid), UTM (9-2)
The other 5 autos:
Patriot: Lafayette (9-2)
UAC: APSU (9-2)
SLC: Nicholls (5-5)
NEC: Duquesne (6-5)
Pioneer: Davidson (8-3)
NOTE: It doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of the playoffs but the NEC and Patriot autobids are messy - I don't believe Merrimack is postseason eligible so Duquesne should be the NEC auto even if they lose to Merrimack next Saturday. Drake is the Pioneer auto if they beat Butler but Massey projects them to lose and in that case I think Davidson would win the tie breaker due to them beating Butler and Drake losing to Butler.
The seeds
1. SDSU (11-0)
2. Furman (10-1)
3. Montana St (9-2)
4. USD (9-2)
5. Montana (9-2)
6. Delaware (9-2)
7. Albany (9-3)
8. Idaho (8-3)
Last 4 in: YSU (7-4), UTM (9-2), SIU (7-4), Chattanooga (7-4)
First 4 out: UIW (8-2), NCCU (9-2), EIU (8-3), William & Mary (7-4)
Others on the outside looking in amongst the teams I've listed above: Richmond (7-4), Rhode Island (7-4), UCA (7-4), Holy Cross (7-4), UC Davis (6-5), UNI (6-5), Illinois St (6-5)
I shuffled the seeds up a bit this week with Idaho's loss and I think I've been undervaluing Albany's seed chances (although not as badly as the Coaches Poll) which knocks a projected 8-3 NDSU out of the seeds. The bubble actually didn't turn out as tough as I thought it was going to be but I'm also not super convinced that the committee will see the shiny W-L records of UIW and NCCU as underwhelmingly as I did. There's some games next Saturday that could throw the bubble into pandemonium though like Sac St @ UC Davis, Richmond @ William & Mary, and NDSU @ UNI along with some others so these projections are guesses at best.
What do you think? Feel free to throw out your projection - it's kind of a fun exercise IMO.
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