Week 10 Playoff Prognostication

[JacksFan40]

I can't wait to see the following situation play out and the heads exploding trying to justify who to seed, not to seed, where each should be ranked, etc.

UNI>MOSU
UND>USD
NDSU>SIU
YSU>SDSU
UNI>NDSU

That would give UNI a share of the Valley title at 8-3 (7-1) and the Valley standings would look like

SDSU 10-1 7-1
UNI 8-3 7-1
UND 8-3 6-2
USD 8-3 6-2
NDSU 7-4 4-4
SIU 7-4 4-4

The absolute hilarity of the outrage that would ensure giving UNI a seed - though it'd be hard to argue against given they'd be sharing the Valley title. Though we've seen UNI finish second, outright, in the Valley and the seed given to a team that finished 5th 2 games behind them in the the standings.

I say that because USD is going to be "ranked" the seed line before UNI would. They likely won't fall much because the UND win moves UND to 8-3 so it's "not a bad loss". Would that UND win be late enough in the year to bump them back ahead of UNI in the rankings (if UNI has even moved in front of them yet by that point)? If USD and UND are ranked a head of UNI and UNI gets the seed because they shared the conference title? *chefs kiss*. Though it's more likley that shared title and head to head blow out of UND is ignored and UNI isn't seeded and is instead fed to a seeded USD.


The double standard application and spin cycles are going to be oh so fun to read the next few weeks if that plays out.

If UNI wins out they should be a lock for a seed with only two FCS losses. Right now I would predict SDSU, USD, Montana, Montana State, Idaho, and Furman to all be seeded with one of those last two spots coming down to NDSU, UNI, or SIU.

[clenz]

Didn’t see any mention of the Pioneer outside of you giving Davidson the auto, but I’m pretty sure I read that if both Davidson and Drake win out that Drake would get the auto due to tiebreaker, as they don’t play each other. Pretty sure it was because Drake beat St. Thomas and that gives them the edge.

Drake owns the edge in SOV and SOR but Massey gives better odds to Davidson to not drop one of the final 2 as of now.

[clenz]

If UNI wins out they should be a lock for a seed with only two FCS losses. Right now I would predict SDSU, USD, Montana, Montana State, Idaho, and Furman to all be seeded with one of those last two spots coming down to NDSU, UNI, or SIU.

Should, but I've followed the FCS long enough to know that if UNI, USD, UND, and YSU all finish at 8-3 it won't matter than UNI beat YSU and UND. It won't matter than UNI finished with a share of the conference title while the others didn't. If history has shown us anything it's that UNI would be the bottom of that group in terms of getting a seed or even a seat at the playoff table.

UND and USD are both already ranked ahead of UNI and UNI isn't going to get the same NDSU boost those two did so they won't jump them. UND beats USD that moves UND up a ton and the other side would be "You can't fault USD for losing to UND like that". So they both stay ahead of UNI. YSU beats SDSU and they'll skyrocket because they beat SDSU and the H2H between those two gets thrown out because YSU beat SDSU late in the year.

It's pre-emptive conspiracy theory thinking on my part, but if you take a step back and truly think about it you'll see what I said absolutely would happen.

None of it matters if UNI doesn't win out and that exact situation doesn't play out. To get every single game to play out to get to that scenario is almost statistically impossible. Just a fun though experiment

EDIT - additional thought that i'm not sure where to put elsewhere

UNI's loss to WSU has been called a boat anchor, and it's not a good loss for sure. But don't look now as Weber is at 20 in Massey (laughable, I realize) and could finish 6-5 as they have a virtual lock win against Poly and are a 50/50 toss up with Idaho per massey. If Weber is at 6-5 are they still a "boat anchor"? What's even better with that is should Weber win that it puts Idaho also at 8-3 going to the playoffs. Does Idaho get hit with a "boat anchor" loss though pattern?

[atthewbon]

Interesting tweet about fcs playoff odds. The account further breaks it down by conference and has odds for receiving a bye. https://x.com/RedHerringBets/status/...039377247?s=20

[geaux_sioux]

Might as well mark us down for an L in Verm. Even our great teams from the past struggled there. Factor in our recent road ineptitude and it’s not looking good for the f’n hawks

[SDFS]

Should, but I've followed the FCS long enough to know that if UNI, USD, UND, and YSU all finish at 8-3 it won't matter than UNI beat YSU and UND. It won't matter than UNI finished with a share of the conference title while the others didn't. If history has shown us anything it's that UNI would be the bottom of that group in terms of getting a seed or even a seat at the playoff table.

UND and USD are both already ranked ahead of UNI and UNI isn't going to get the same NDSU boost those two did so they won't jump them. UND beats USD that moves UND up a ton and the other side would be "You can't fault USD for losing to UND like that". So they both stay ahead of UNI. YSU beats SDSU and they'll skyrocket because they beat SDSU and the H2H between those two gets thrown out because YSU beat SDSU late in the year.

It's pre-emptive conspiracy theory thinking on my part, but if you take a step back and truly think about it you'll see what I said absolutely would happen.

None of it matters if UNI doesn't win out and that exact situation doesn't play out. To get every single game to play out to get to that scenario is almost statistically impossible. Just a fun though experiment

EDIT - additional thought that i'm not sure where to put elsewhere

UNI's loss to WSU has been called a boat anchor, and it's not a good loss for sure. But don't look now as Weber is at 20 in Massey (laughable, I realize) and could finish 6-5 as they have a virtual lock win against Poly and are a 50/50 toss up with Idaho per massey. If Weber is at 6-5 are they still a "boat anchor"? What's even better with that is should Weber win that it puts Idaho also at 8-3 going to the playoffs. Does Idaho get hit with a "boat anchor" loss though pattern?

If UNI wins out and they are tied with USD and UND. UNI would be the second team for a seed in the MVFC - due to head to head record. I mean you think UND is the playoff darling compared to UNI? I don't think so. Just win both games and UNI will be a seed - end of story.

[smilo]

Interesting tweet about fcs playoff odds. The account further breaks it down by conference and has odds for receiving a bye. https://x.com/RedHerringBets/status/...039377247?s=20

6-5 New Hampshire gonna get in, but not even a sliver for Rhode Island. Mad respect for sticking with the analytics, but you know the committee would never.

Font looks like the old 538 modelling.

[caribbeanhen]

PC
just know Massey math doesn’t figure in curses, Nova is certain to be a loss for Delaware

Likely in
Delaware 7-2 (5-1) [1.33/0.67] - @Campbell (76%), Nova (57%)

[SteelSD]

Didn’t see any mention of the Pioneer outside of you giving Davidson the auto, but I’m pretty sure I read that if both Davidson and Drake win out that Drake would get the auto due to tiebreaker, as they don’t play each other. Pretty sure it was because Drake beat St. Thomas and that gives them the edge.

If Drake wins out it’s crazy to think they would make the FCS playoffs with resume that includes a loss to a NAIA school. Not to mention 2 losses to MVFC schools by a combined 125-14. But yeah, the Pioneer deserves an auto bud…

[Puddin Tane]

Hey. If Lamar wins out, 7-4 with losses to Idaho, South Dakota, Uiw, and fbs ULM

UIW would get auto…give my Cardinals an at larggggge! Frisco bound!

peck em