Just 2 week until Selection Sunday so time for an updated playoff prognostication. I broke it down by conference listing the teams in order from where I think (using Massey as a guide) each team sits in terms of easiest path to the playoffs (or who's already in) to toughest path within their conference. You can see all of Massey's updated numbers at https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/fcs/ratings. The numbers in brackets behind each team is Massey's expected remaining wins and losses and the percentage in parenthesis behind each remaining game is Massey's percentage that each team wins that respective game. Using Massey percentages to project the remaining game I put together what I think would be the field at the bottom of this post if it all played out like it's supposed to (which we all know it won't).
Big Sky
Montana locked themselves in this week with a big win over Sac St and Idaho and Montana St kept trucking as they're only a win away from locking in their spot and might be in regardless. How the seeds break down amongst these teams will be interesting - if Montana St beats Montana as Massey predicts it could be a mess at the top with three 9-2 teams all 1-1 against each other. Massey thinks Idaho's next game at Weber St is closer to a toss up than most would think so that could throw another monkey wrench into things. That Sac St/UC Davis finale might be interesting if UC Davis wins and they both finish 7-4. UC Davis would have the head-to-head win but Sac St has that nice FBS/Pac-12 pelt - would there be enough room for both? I still think this league gets 4 bids this year and probably 3 seeds.
Locked in
Montana 8-1 (5-1) [1.22/0.78] - @Portland St (77%), Montana St (45%)
Likely in
Idaho 7-2 (5-1) [1.41/0.59] - @Weber St (52%), Idaho St (89%)
Montana St 7-2 (5-1) [1.34/0.66] - EWU (79%), @Montana (55%)
Work left to do
Sac St 6-3 (3-3) [1.51/0.49] - Cal Poly (97%), @UC Davis (54%)
UC Davis 5-4 (3-3) [1.22/0.78] - @Idaho St (76%), Sac St (46%)
CAA
Another week and another couple teams (UNH and Hampton) falling of this list of CAA playoff contenders. Delaware knocked themselves out of the top 4 seed conversation with their loss to Elon but are still just a win away from locking in their playoff spot. Both Nova and Albany picked up big wins that has them on the verge of locking in their spot as well. I'm having a hard time seeing more than one playoff bid, if that, from the group in the "work left to do category". Richmond/Elon and William & Mary/Richmond will be huge games these least two weeks and the loser of both of those games is likely out. I think even if URI wins out they're on the wrong side of the bubble. We'll see who can make it to Selection Sunday with 4 or fewer losses out of the CAA but I'm thinking 3-4 bids for the league is it with 3 more likely than 4.
Likely in
Delaware 7-2 (5-1) [1.33/0.67] - @Campbell (76%), Nova (57%)
Villanova 7-2 (5-1) [1.28/0.72] - Towson (85%), @Delaware (43%)
Albany 7-3 (5-1) [1.52/0.48] - @SBU (94%), Monmouth (58%)
Work left to do
Richmond 6-3 (5-1) [1.06/0.94] - Elon (64%), @W&M (41%)
Elon 5-4 (5-1) [1.29/0.71] - @Richmond (36%), Hampton (93%)
William & Mary 5-4 (3-3) [1.48/0.52] - @Hamptom (89%), Richmond (59%)
Rhode Island 5-4 (3-3) [1.49/0.51] - NC A&T (90%), @Towson (59%)
MVFC
Another week closer to Selection Sunday and another week where the list of playoff contenders in the MVFC stays huge (what a difference from last year). SDSU is locked in and I'm thinking they're probably only one more win away from locking up the #1 seed as well. USD got a huge win @SIU and is tracking towards a decent seed. At least 2 in the group of NDSU/UNI/SIU is going to be at 4 losses or more come Selection Sunday - UNI probably has the best shot of those 3 at 7-4 but head-to-head matchups between them these last 2 weeks will loom large even though I tend to think all of them are in at 7-4. UND could also end up in the 7-4 group to make things even messier but if they lose to USD next week they're likely already playing a playoff game in week 12 vs Illinois St who hung on this list by a thread yesterday. YSU is yet another MVFC team likely to end up at 7-4 - their head-to-head win over SIU should help them but they lost to UNI and don't play NDSU or UND so it'll be tough to place them until we see who else is at 7-4 with them. 6 bids is looking more and more likely but it could drop to 5 or get all the way to 7 depending on how things shake out these last 2 weeks.
Locked in
SDSU 9-0 (6-0) [1.80/0.20] - @YSU (84%), Missouri St (95%)
Likely in
USD 7-2 (5-1) [1.52/0.48] - UND (54%), @WIU (97%)
Work left do to
NDSU 6-3 (3-3) [1.47/0.53] - SIU (80%), @UNI (67%)
UNI 6-3 (5-1) [0.97/1.03] - @Missouri St (63%), NDSU (33%)
SIU 6-3 (3-3) [1.19/0.81] - @NDSU (20%), Indiana St (99%)
UND 6-3 (4-2) [1.10/0.90] - @USD (46%), Illinois St (65%)
YSU 6-3 (4-2) [1.01/0.99] - SDSU (16%), @Murray St (85%)
Illinois St 5-4 (3-3) [1.26/0.74] - Murray St (91%), @UND (35%)
SOCON
Furman is the autobid here and is a massive favorite to finish 10-1 which probably gets them the #2 or #3 national seed. As for the rest they're in if they get to 8 wins but any and all of them would be on the bubble at 7-4. WCU is in the best shape of that group with 2 very winnable games to close out the season but they've been sputtering lately and might need some help if they drop one of those although head-to-head wins over Chattanooga and Samford may come in handy for them. Chattanooga is in the uneviable position of needing another win to lock themselves in and having to go to Bama for their final game so they're destined to be on the bubble at 7-4. Mercer and Samford play a coin flip game next week and if Samford wins they play what's likely another coin flip game in week 12 vs UTM. I'm not sure Samford will even be in at 7-4 with a sub-D1 win amongst those 7 wins but they could make a strong case. This league could still get anywhere from 2-4 bids IMO - it's just too early to tell.
Locked in
Furman 8-1 (6-0) [1.93/0.07] - VMI (98%), @Wofford (94%)
Work left to do
Western Carolina 6-3 (4-2) [1.46/0.54] - ETSU (72%), @VMI (74%)
Mercer 7-3 (5-2) [0.51/0.49] - Samford (51%)
Chattanooga 7-3 (6-2) [0.00/1.00] - @Bama (~0%)
Samford 5-4 (4-3) [0.99/1.01] - @Mercer (49%), UTM (50%)
Patriot
Lafayette's loss to Colgate yesterday turned this group upside down as Lafayette went from being on the fringe of a seed if they win out to now probably sitting on the wrong side of the bubble if they lose to Fordham next week (as Massey predicts). Holy Cross will be rooting for that to happen as one more league loss for Lafayette puts them back in the driver's seat for the autobid. They could take matters into their owns hands and essentially lock up a bid by beating Army next weekend but that's a tall order. I think Fordham is actually hurt by Lafayette's loss to Colgate because, even though Fordham can get above Lafayette in the playoff pecking order with a win next week, a win over Lafayette all of a sudden probably isn't a win over a playoff team like it looked like it would be last week. Whether the Patriot gets an at-large is probably a coin flip unless both HC and Lafayette win out.
Work left to do
Lafayette 7-2 (3-1) [1.18/0.82] - Fordham (46%), @Lehigh (73%)
Holy Cross 6-3 (4-1) [1.16/0.84] - @Army (22%), Georgetown (94%)
Fordham 6-3 (2-2) [1.21/0.79] - @Lafayette (54%), @Colgate (67%)
OVC/Big South
The OVC/Big South is still a mess - UTM barely avoided what would've been a crippling loss to TTU but SEMO didn't as they dropped a game to RMU meaning no one in this league (as far as I can tell) controls their own destiny for the autobid due to the fact that SEMO and G-W don't play each other. It seems like UTM's only path to the playoffs would be through an at-large since, if they beat SEMO next week, and G-W wins out they lose the tie breaker to G-W but if they get to 9-2 with that win and another win over Samford in week 12 they're looking good for a playoff bid no matter what. EIU and Tennessee St play an elimination game next week - I'm not sure TSU is in even if they finish 8-3 after an ugly loss to CSU yesterday. EIU could definitely make a case for an at-large at 8-3 but that head-to-head loss to UTM could bite them unless UTM snags the auto. It's possible this league gets an at-large especially if UTM and G-W win out but that'll be the most they can hope for.
Work left to do
UT Martin 7-2 (4-1) [1.03/0.97] - SEMO (53%), @Samford (50%)
EIU 6-3 (2-2) [1.51/0.49] - TSU (65%), @RMU (86%)
Tennessee St 6-3 (2-2) [1.03/0.97] - @EIU (35%), TTU (69%)
Gardner-Webb 5-4 (3-1) [1.39/0.61] - @TTU (63%), CSU (76%)
SEMO 4-5 (3-1) [1.21/0.79] - @UTM (47%), @Bryant (74%)
Others
I combined the SLC and UAC here but that's it for now as FAMU and NCCU kept their grips on their Celebration Bowl bids and the previous 2 leagues mentioned still have 3 or more teams in contention. You could see that UIW loss to Nicholls coming the way they'd been sputtering the last few weeks - I don't know what to make of UIW's at-large chances now. Their cancelled game vs NWSU now counts as a forfeit win but are they dinged for a sub-D1 win and a forfeit win if they win their finale against HCU??? Your guess is as good as mine but I think their at-large chances are sketchy. To get back in the conversation for the auto they need Lamar to beat Nicholls next week. The UAC is less tricky as both APSU and UCA control their own destiny. APSU might have a case for an at-large at 8-3 but I think they'd be in trouble - UCA is autobid or bust.
Work left to do
Austin Peay 7-2 (4-0) [1.54/0.46] - Utah Tech (89%), UCA (65%)
UCA 6-3 (3-1) [1.00/1.00] - EKU (65%), @APSU (35%)
Incarnate Word 7-2 (4-1) [0.90/0.10] - NWSU (100% - forfeit), @HCU (90%)
Nicholls 4-4 (5-0) [1.31/0.69] - Lamar (86%), @SLU (45%)
The Field
So there's 14 at-large available (1 more than last year with the Big South and OVC merging) - this is where I see them landing if things go to plan based on Massey odds over the last 2 weeks (which of course they won't) - the lists includes the autos so there's one additional team for each conference on top of the at-larges:
Big Sky: 3 - Idaho (9-2), Montana St (9-2), Montana (9-2), Sac St (8-3)
CAA: 2 - Delaware (9-2), Albany (9-3), Villanova (8-3)
MVFC: 6 - SDSU (11-0), USD (9-2), NDSU (8-3), UNI (7-4), UND (7-4), YSU (7-4), SIU (7-4)
SOCON: 3 - Furman (10-1), Mercer (8-3), WCU (8-3), Chattanooga (7-4)
The other 6 autos:
Patriot: Holy Cross (7-4)
OVC/Big South: Gardner-Webb (7-4)
UAC: APSU (9-2)
SLC: Nicholls (5-5)
NEC: Duquesne (8-3)
Pioneer: Davidson (9-2)
The seeds
1. SDSU (11-0)
2. Furman (10-1)
3. Idaho (9-2)
4. Montana St (9-2)
5. USD (9-2)
6. Montana (9-2)
7. Delaware (9-2)
8. NDSU (8-3)
Last 4 in: UND (7-4), YSU (7-4), SIU (7-4), Chattanooga (7-4)
First 4 out: Fordham (8-3), Lafayette (8-3), UTM (8-3), UIW (8-2)
Others on the outside looking in amongst the teams I've listed above: EIU (8-3), TSU (7-4), William & Mary (7-4), Richmond (7-4), Rhode Island (7-4), UCA (7-4), UC Davis (6-5), Elon (6-5), Illinois St (6-5), Samford (6-5)
Some big movement in the projected seeds this week - this would be a tough draw for top seed SDSU since they'd probably have regular season rematches all the way until Frisco. A lot of tough decisions with this projected bubble as well - Fordham or Chattanooga was basically a coin flip for me. I still kinda doubt the committee gives the MVFC 7 bids and my logic is admittedly circular since I'm giving credit to these MVFC teams for wins over teams in my projected field which is easier to get when you have 7 teams from one conference in the projected field. Still it's tough to make a case for the projected 8 wins teams in weaker conferences over the proejected 7 win teams in the MVFC.
What do you think? Feel free to throw out your projection - it's kind of a fun exercise IMO.
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Originally Posted by grizband
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