3 weeks and closing until Selection Sunday so time for an updated playoff prognostication. I broke it down by conference listing the teams in order from where I think (using Massey as a guide) each team sits in terms of easiest path to the playoffs to toughest path within their conference. You can see all of Massey's updated numbers at https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/fcs/ratings. The numbers in brackets behind each team is Massey's expected remaining wins and losses and the percentage in parenthesis behind each remaining game is Massey's percentage that each team wins that respective game. Using Massey percentages to project the remaining game I put together what I think would be the field at the bottom of this post if it all played out like it's supposed to (which we all know it won't).
Big Sky
There's basically 4 teams in contention here as UC Davis and Portland St play an elimination game this week and probably only UC Davis has a realistic shot at 7-4 which still puts them at the mercy of the bubble which is looking pretty tough. Idaho's big win last week sets them up for a nice seed if they win out but Montana St can still get back to the top of this heap if they also win out. Montana matches up with 2 of the other top 3 in these last 3 weeks (and @Portland St won't be a gimme either) so they could still play themselves up to a top 2 seed or down to the bubble. Sac St is still in decent shape since they don't need a win in Missoula this week but getting one would basically lock them in. I think this league gets 4 bids this year and up to 3 seeds.
Likely in
Montana St 6-2 (4-1) [2.28/0.78] - NAU (89%), EWU (80%), @Montana (59%)
Montana 7-1 (4-1) [1.71/1.29] - Sac St (57%), @Portland St (73%), Montana St (41%)
Idaho 6-2 (4-1) [2.39/0.61] - @UNC (96%), @Weber St (54%), Idaho St (89%)
Trending towards in
Sac St 6-2 (3-2) [1.99/1.01] - @Montana (43%), Cal Poly (97%), @UC Davis (59%)
Work left to do
UC Davis 4-4 (2-3) [1.86/1.14] - Portland St (69%), @Idaho St (75%), Sac St (41%)
Portland St 4-4 (3-2) [1.33/1.67] - @UC Davis (31%), Montana (27%), @UNC (75%)
CAA
The playoff contenders in the CAA thinned yesterday with Monmouth, Towson, and Campbell all bowing out. The problem with this league is there's so many teams already right on the bubble that they're going to knock each other out which softens the bubble but it also devalues the wins for the teams that got them since they were against teams now out of contention. Delaware is still looking very good and tracking towards a high seed. I'm starting to wonder if 7 wins will even be enough for Nova or Albany so each might need to win 2 of their last which could be iffy. William & Mary and Richmond are in if they win out but I think they're on even tougher footing if they only get to 7 wins. The rest need to win out and even then I'm not sure it'll be enough. A lot still depends on who amongst these CAA bubble teams is still standing at 7-4 come Selection Sunday and then the head-to-head wins amongst that group will be magnified. I'm thinking 3-4 bids is all this list of contenders in this league can hope for this year.
Likely in
Delaware 7-1 (5-0) [2.22/0.78] - Elon (81%), @Campbell (77%), Nova (64%)
Trending towards in
Villanova 6-2 (4-1) [1.75/1.25] - @UNH (54%), Towson (85%), @Delaware (36%)
Albany 6-3 (4-1) [2.08/0.92] - W&M (58%), @SBU (91%), Monmouth (59%)
Work left to do
William & Mary 5-3 (3-2) [1.94/1.06] - @Albany (42%), @Hamptom (92%), Richmond (60%)
Richmond 6-3 (5-1) [1.09/0.91] - Elon (69%), @W&M (40%)
Rhode Island 5-4 (3-3) [1.51/0.49] - NC A&T (90%), @Towson (61%)
Elon 4-4 (4-1) [1.43/1.57] - @Delaware (19%), @Richmond (31%), Hampton (94%)
New Hampshire 4-4 (2-3) [1.68/1.32] - Nova (46%), @Monmouth (48%), Maine (74%)
Hampton 4-4 (2-3) [0.36/2.64] - @Maine (21%), W&M (8%), @Elon (6%)
MVFC
The MVFC is still looking like it could hoard a ton of at-large bids (as many as 6) if things play out according to the Massey percentages - which they did last week. SDSU is the first lock in the field IMO and Massey like SIU's chances to get 8 wins which puts them easily in. USD and NDSU have some big tests coming up but they probably each only need to win one to get in although they'll put their fates on the bubble at 7-4. UND won yesterday but their numbers took a hit and Massey now projects them to lose to USD which took them from a low seed last week to shaky footing on the bubble this week. UNI continues to plug along and might get to that last game vs NDSU at 7-3 (6-1) which should get them regardless of how that game turns out and seeded if they win out. Even YSU has a manageable path to 7 wins although I think they'd be squarely on the bubble in that case. Illinois St is probably not going to make it to Selection Sunday with 4 losses but if they do they could make it in (which would likely knock out UND). I think 5 bids is the floor for the MVFC this year with a decent shot at 6 and even 7 is possible.
Locked in
SDSU 8-0 (5-0) [2.50/0.50] - NDSU (73%), @YSU (82%), Missouri St (95%)
Likely in
SIU 6-2 (3-2) [2.02/0.98] - USD (81%), @NDSU (22%), Indiana St (99%)
Trending towards in
USD 6-2 (4-1) [1.65/1.35] - @SIU (19%), UND (50%), @WIU (96%)
NDSU 6-2 (3-2) [1.74/1.26] - @SDSU (27%), SIU (78%), @UNI (70%)
Work left do to
UNI 5-3 (4-1) [1.89/1.11] - WIU (98%), @Missouri St (61%), NDSU (30%)
UND 5-3 (3-2) [2.05/0.95] - @Murray St (88%), @USD (50%), Illinois St (67%)
YSU 5-3 (3-2) [1.87/1.13] - @Indiana St (84%), SDSU (18%), @Murray St (85%)
Illinois St 4-4 (2-3) [1.70/1.30] - @Missouri St (45%), Murray St (93%), @UND (33%)
SOCON
Mercer's big win over WCU complicates things a bit in the SOCON. Furman and Chattanooga play the de facto conference title game this Saturday - Massey still likes UTC at home and if that happens things get a little simpler and could get the SOCON an extra playoff bid IMO. If Furman wins that jumble of UTC, Mercer, and WCU might be a mess to sort out with everyone going 1-1 against each other. If any of those teams get to 8 wins they're in but 7 wins would be get sketchy for any and all of them and head-to-head may play a big factor if only 2 of them are on the bubble at 7-4. Samford is still hanging around but needs to win both of their final two which isn't impossible but seems unlikely. This league could still get anywhere from 2-4 bids IMO - it's just too early to tell.
Likely in
Furman 7-1 (5-0) [2.39/0.61] - @UTC (47%), VMI (98%), @Wofford (94%)
Work left to do
Chattanooga 7-2 (6-1) [0.53/1.47] - Furman (53%), @Bama (~0%)
Mercer 6-3 (4-2) [1.44/0.56] - @The Citadel (93%), Samford (51%)
Western Carolina 5-3 (3-2) [2.21/0.79] - @Wofford (73%), ETSU (71%), @VMI (77%)
Samford 5-4 (4-3) [0.96/1.04] - @Mercer (49%), UTM (47%)
Patriot
As Massey projected Holy Cross beat Fordham which means not much changed from last week in the Patriot. I think Lafayette's win over Georgetown solidified their playoff chances as Massey has them as a strong favorite to get to 9-2 which means they'd be the autobid since only HC has fewer than 2 losses in league play and Lafayette beat them head-to-head. If Holy Cross can win out, which would include a win over FBS Army, they should get an at-large but that might knock Fordham out even if they win out (as Massey projects). If either HC or Fordham loses one more they're probably on the outside looking in but Fordham might even get snubbed at 8-3. I think the Patriot could snag an at-large bid again but 2 seems unlikely and it could even be a one bid league still.
Trending towards in
Lafayette 7-1 (3-0) [2.07/0.93] - Colgate (81%), Fordham (46%), @Lehigh (81%)
Work left to do
Holy Cross 5-3 (3-1) [2.14/0.86] - @Lehigh (92%), @Army (28%), Georgetown (94%)
Fordham 5-3 (1-2) [2.13/0.87] - Bucknell (87%), @Lafayette (54%), @Colgate (72%)
UAC
Despite UCA being upset by Tarleton not much changed in the UAC. All 3 of these teams listed control their own destiny for the autobid. However, an at-large for this conference looks increasingly unlikely - APSU may have a shot at 8-3 but they'd need some help elswhere on the bubble to get in. I think this is just a one-bid league with these 3 teams duking it out over the next 3 weeks to see who takes the auto.
Work left to do
Austin Peay 6-2 (3-0) [2.17/0.83] - @EKU (65%), Utah Tech (87%), UCA (65%)
UCA 5-3 (2-1) [1.78/1.22] - @UNA (78%), EKU (66%), @APSU (35%)
EKU 4-4 (3-0) [1.19/1.81] - Austin Peay (35%), @UCA (34%), SFA (49%)
OVC/Big South
UTM's loss to G-W made a real mess out of the OVC/Big South. Only SEMO controls their own destiny for the autobid and UTM, EIU, and Tennessee St could all make strong cases for an at-large if any of them wins out but doesn't get the autobid. I added Bryant and Gardner-Webb to this list this week since both could still tie for a share of the conference title should SEMO lose (and Bryant still plays them) but they play each other this week which almost certainly eliminates the loser. It's possible this league gets an at-large especially if UTM wins out but doesn't get the auto but who knows with so much still to be decided.
Work left to do
UT Martin 6-2 (3-1) [1.94/1.06] - @TTU (90%), SEMO (51%), @Samford (53%)
SEMO 4-4 (3-0) [2.26/0.74] - RMU (98%), @UTM (49%), @Bryant (79%)
EIU 5-3 (1-2) [2.14/0.86] - @Lindenwood (67%), TSU (60%), @RMU (87%)
Tennessee St 6-2 (2-1) [1.84/1.16] - @CSU (67%), @EIU (40%), TTU (78%)
Gardner-Webb 4-4 (2-1) [2.00/1.00] - @Bryant (54%), @TTU (66%), CSU (80%)
Bryant 4-4 (2-1) [1.25/1.75] - G-W (46%), @Lindenwood (58%), SEMO (21%)
Others
Still just lonely UIW in this group for now as FAMU and NCCU kept their grips on their Celebration Bowl bids and the previous 3 leagues mentioned still have 3 or more teams in contention. Nicholls could crash this party if they beat UIW (and the way UIW has been squeaking by lately they might be ripe for plucking) which would put UIW in a tough spot since they only have 10 games scheduled now with the NWSU game cancelled and they have a sub-D1 win so 7-2 vs D1 probably puts them on the bubble if they lose to Nicholls.
Likely in
Incarnate Word 7-1 (4-0) [1.65/0.35] - Nicholls (73%), @HCU (92%)
The Field
So there's 14 at-large available (1 more than last year with the Big South and OVC merging) - this is where I see them landing if things go to plan based on Massey odds over the last 3 weeks (which of course they won't) - the lists includes the autos so there's one additional team for each conference on top of the at-larges:
Big Sky: 3 - Idaho (9-2), Montana St (9-2), Montana (9-2), Sac St (8-3)
CAA: 2 - Delaware (10-1), Albany (9-3), Villanova (8-3)
MVFC: 5 - SDSU (11-0), USD (8-3), NDSU (8-3), SIU (8-3), UNI (7-4), UND (7-4)
SOCON: 3 - Furman (9-2), Chattanooga (8-3), Mercer (8-3), WCU (8-3)
Patriot: 1 - Lafayette (9-2), Fordham (8-3)
The other 5 autos:
OVC/Big South: UTM (9-2)
UAC: APSU (9-2)
SLC: UIW (9-1)
NEC: Duquesne (8-3)
Pioneer: Davidson (9-2)
The seeds
1. SDSU (11-0)
2. Delaware (10-1)
3. Idaho (9-2)
4. Montana St (9-2)
5. Furman (9-2)
6. Montana (9-2)
7. USD (8-3)
8. NDSU (8-3)
Last 4 in: WCU (8-3), UNI (7-4), UND (7-4), Fordham (8-3)
First 4 out: YSU (7-4), EIU (8-3), William & Mary (7-4), Holy Cross (7-4)
Others on the outside looking in amongst the teams I've listed above: TSU (8-3), Richmond (7-4), Rhode Island (7-4), UCA (7-4), Gardner-Webb (7-4), UC Davis (6-5)
I gave UTM the Big South/OVC auto for sake of ease since Massey projects a 3-way tie with SEMO and G-W (who don't play each other) so not sure how the tie breakers would work. Mercer grabbing another at-large for the SOCON tightened the bubble from last week which bumped YSU out for me. I think they could make an arugment over Fordham (or UND) but I wonder if politics come into play, even though it's not supposed to, with 6 MVFC teams already in the field. I think UIW at 9-1 or Sac St at 8-3 would be in play for that 8 seed but I think UIW's SOS is just too poor and Sac St would be 4 seeds for the Big Sky (which they've done before) but thinking that's not going to happen (EDIT: Chattanooga at 8-3 probably in play for the #8 seed as well - could see them getting the nod over NDSU probably moreso than the other 2 I mentioned).
What do you think? Feel free to throw out your projection - it's kind of a fun exercise IMO.
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