AGS Top 25 - How They Fared - Week 5, Fall 2023

[crusader11]

Serious question. What win does Holy Cross have that makes you feel they are top 15? Is it just because they were ranked high in the preseason or do they have a game you watched that impressed you enough to vault Harvard up 15 slots and leave Holy Cross in the 13 range?

One big reason people complain about the early polls is many voters just simply slot teams. How many times have we seen a team start the year in top 10 and lose to an unranked team but many voters take the stance you did and the 1-0 team is ranked 5-6 slots behind the team they just beat at home? We have to totally forget the preseason and go by the resume that teams are putting out. If this was week 10 I would agree with you but it is early enough that big moves need to be made to get the rankings about where they deserve to be.

The only way I think you can argue not dropping Holy Cross out of the top 20 is if you put Holy Cross close to the top 10 and have Holy Cross in the 15 range but I feel that is too high because neither has the SOS that will warrant them being ranked in the top 5 at the end of the year and if they keep winning and voters just slot like you are suggesting then that could very easily happen with their schedules.

Harvard could be very good but I need to see them win by good margins in their league since it is weaker. They only beat Brown by 3 and I don't think Brown is a legit top 40 team.

Simply put, HC ended last season ranked inside the top ten and played SDSU better than anyone in the playoffs. They returned a bulk of their team and projected to be better this season. This was the reason for the high ranking this season. They backed it up the first four weeks by blowing out opponents in their three wins (one of which looked good on paper, Yale, the Ivy preseason favorites), and their one loss was by a field goal to an ACC team.

Right or wrong, rankings aren’t exclusively based on the current season’s performance in the first few weeks. If it was done that way, the rankings would be so out of whack the first few weeks.

[smallcollegefbfan]

Simply put, HC ended last season ranked inside the top ten and played SDSU better than anyone in the playoffs. They returned a bulk of their team and projected to be better this season. This was the reason for the high ranking this season. They backed it up the first four weeks by blowing out opponents in their three wins (one of which looked good on paper, Yale, the Ivy preseason favorites), and their one loss was by a field goal to an ACC team.

Right or wrong, rankings aren’t exclusively based on the current season’s performance in the first few weeks. If it was done that way, the rankings would be so out of whack the first few weeks.

I 100% understand the high ranking but it is a new year and nothing is guaranteed. We have seen teams finish top 5 and return a lot but tank. I believe both HC and Harvard are top 25 teams but my main argument is that HC has to drop a lot and behind Harvard. I think it is hard to argue they are both top 15 for sure this early but could put them back there in a few weeks.

Rankings are not only based on the season's performance early and that is why we honestly should not vote until after 5 or 6 weeks but we do so I try to adjust based on how the current season is going. I have always had a problem with slot voting and when Harvard beat you guys by a good margin I think it invalidates an argument to say Harvard could be behind you right now. Maybe by the end of the year HC looks to be better but I will take the undefeated team over the 2-loss when they have a head to head match-up at this point.

What do you think about Coker and Hanson? I am not sure if HC realizes it but those two could get drafted. I won't be shocked if Hanson ends up going in the 4th-5th round.

[crusader11]

It is still early enough to make a big move, especially if a team does not have a key win and the meat of their schedule is later.

You said you are not slotting teams but if you keep USD behind NDSU and Harvard behind HC then that is EXACTLY what you are doing. There is no argument to have HC ahead of Harvard if you watched that game. Harvard was the superior team. HC is lucky Harvard did not try to score again. If could have been a 17 point game.

You just admitted that Harvard and Holy Cross could flame out and if they had a strong resume you would be confident they won't flame out. I try to avoid pushing teams too early who don't have quality wins, especially from bottom 5 leagues in FCS (Ivy, Patriot, MEAC, NEC, Pioneer).

I am evaluating based on the speed of the teams and how good teams are rather than just going by points. The transitive property is what you are talking about and I would only consider that with multiple common opponents. 1 game can be an outlier.

Hard to disagree here.

Can I assume then that USD is ahead of NDSU?

Is Elon ahead of W&M?

The more the season progresses and bodies of work develop, head to head records take on less weight. For instance, if by some chance SDSU loses to Missouri St to end the regular season, we aren’t slotting the Bears ahead of the Bunnies.

[smallcollegefbfan]

Hard to disagree here.

Can I assume then that USD is ahead of NDSU?

Is Elon ahead of W&M?

The more the season progresses and bodies of work develop, head to head records take on less weight. For instance, if by some chance SDSU loses to Missouri St to end the regular season, we aren’t slotting the Bears ahead of the Bunnies.

Yes on USD. I have Elon slightly behind W&M because of their loss to Gardner-Webb and I don't think GWU is top 25 worthy now. I will put Elon in the top 15 though if they handle NCCU by 10 or more. I do want to see how Elon responds coming off such a big win. That is another reason why I won't put Harvard in my top 15 because I want to see how they respond. If both of them win next weekend then I will push them both up a good bit.

I fully agree on the head to head meaning less as you go. In the first 4 or 5 weeks it carries a ton of weight but by November it does not carry the same weight.

[Milktruck74]

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[crusader11]

What do you think about Coker and Hanson? I am not sure if HC realizes it but those two could get drafted. I won't be shocked if Hanson ends up going in the 4th-5th round.

Luke Newman gets most of the attention on the OL, but Hanson has been right there dating back to the off-season. Rest assured HC fans know how good these two are.

Coker is playing at the wrong level. He’s a power five receiver. An incredible catch radius, route runner, and catches everything. Doesn’t have the burners that some guys who play power five have, IMO.

He was a user recruited guy who’s become the best receiver in the FCS, IMO. His draft measurables might not jump off the page so I could see him as an UDFA.

Be interesting to see what he decides to do with his extra year. Could come back to HC if he wanted, but feel like he transfers to FBS (a la Ayir Asante…but at a bigger school).

[smallcollegefbfan]

Luke Newman gets most of the attention on the OL, but Hanson has been right there dating back to the off-season. Rest assured HC fans know how good these two are.

Coker is playing at the wrong level. He’s a power five receiver. An incredible catch radius, route runner, and catches everything. Doesn’t have the burners that some guys who play power five have, IMO.

He was a user recruited guy who’s become the best receiver in the FCS, IMO. His draft measurables might not jump off the page so I could see him as an UDFA.

Be interesting to see what he decides to do with his extra year. Could come back to HC if he wanted, but feel like he transfers to FBS (a la Ayir Asante…but at a bigger school).

Newman is real good for the FCS level but Hanson has been so good this year I predict he will get a lot of NFL interest. I think he is going to attract directors from NFL teams this fall. I thought same for Coker. If he can run 4.55 that is a win for him. He is the type who I think gets drafted if he does well in an all-star game and has a good 40 but if he runs 4.65 or so he won't. I have him as a 4.6 guy so I don't project draft right now but I think he will at least make a practice squad. He has been fun to watch.

If Coker hits the portal he should end up in the ACC or SEC.

[bobcathpdevil56]

To quote my Upper Great Plains friends, "Oooooffffttttaa", that was a heck of an exercise to complete the poll this week. Well done to all you fellow pollsters in getting through that ***** storm!

[WileECoyote06]

It is still early enough to make a big move, especially if a team does not have a key win and the meat of their schedule is later.

You said you are not slotting teams but if you keep USD behind NDSU and Harvard behind HC then that is EXACTLY what you are doing. There is no argument to have HC ahead of Harvard if you watched that game. Harvard was the superior team. HC is lucky Harvard did not try to score again. If could have been a 17 point game.

You just admitted that Harvard and Holy Cross could flame out and if they had a strong resume you would be confident they won't flame out. I try to avoid pushing teams too early who don't have quality wins, especially from bottom 5 leagues in FCS (Ivy, Patriot, MEAC, NEC, Pioneer).

I am evaluating based on the speed of the teams and how good teams are rather than just going by points. The transitive property is what you are talking about and I would only consider that with multiple common opponents. 1 game can be an outlier.

Thus the use of the word 'may.' I hadn't done a deep dive into the ebb and flow of the game and after looking through it, maybe it's appropriate to rank Harvard higher. I try to avoid overreact to upsets. My argument is that dropping Holy Cross out of the top 20 is a bit of an overreaction. If you don't think that Holy Cross is still a top-20 team, then we disagree on that point.

Holy Cross doesn't have the 'signature win'; however, I saw them gash Boston College for 250+ yards rushing in a close game. I also saw that Holy Cross piled up the yards on Harvard and Sluka threw four TDs but gave up three interceptions. And Holy Cross lost two fumbles. Does this mean that Holy Cross beats Harvard in two out of three? No, but HC definitely had an 'Any Given Saturday' bad game. It happens to the best teams. To put things in context. . . suppose Auburn upset UGA yesterday. . .would you honestly put Auburn at #9 and drop Georgia outside the top ten? Or would you give Georgia the benefit of the doubt?

And that's how I arrive at my other argument for not ranking USD above NDSU. Like many posters, they were in my top 5: reflecting their finish last year; their dominance of the subdivision over the past 14 seasons and a healthy respect for their recruiting, style of play and strength program. Like I implied the 'transitive' property is just one of many factors that can influence how I evaluate teams. Scores, SOS, win-totals, personnel, offensive and defensive power ratings, home/away wins and losses, and various ratings help. And then there is the eye test. My eye test says that USD wasn't definitively a better team than NDSU. But should USD continue their winning ways, they'll get a "multiplier" in my rankings.

We can agree to disagree. Despite our different ways of evaluating and ranking teams, we're probably going to have a lot of alignment closer to the end of the season.

[taper]

The problem with Holy Cross is there's only 3 teams even remotely worthwhile on their schedule and they've already lost 2. Seriously doubt they beat Army later on. When your SoS is this bad you need to win.