One week until Selection Sunday and there's still plenty up in the air in terms of teams competing for playoff spots and playoff positioning. The autobids and at-large locks are starting to roll in but that bubble is still looking tough as we hit the final week of the regular season - I think there's going to be some very upset teams who feel they were snubbed come next Sunday. I attempted to handicap everyone's odds based primarily on the Massey projections for them to win/lose their remaining game. You can see all of Massey's updated numbers at https://masseyratings.com/cf2022/fcs/ratings. The numbers in brackets behind each team is Massey's expected remaining wins and losses and the percentage in parenthesis behind each remaining game is Massey's percentage that each team wins that respective game.
Big Sky
The Big Sky has 3 locks in Sac St, Montana St, and Weber St. Either Sac St or Montana St will be the autobid and both are probably locks to be seeded - each has a chance to either impress or fall a bit though with tough final games. Weber St is a lock and could be seeded if they win to get to 9-2 but they might need a result or two to go their way elsewhere to secure that seed I think. The other 3 are going to get tricky - I think both Montana or UC Davis would lock themselves in with a win next week but Montana could make it in even with a loss although they'd probably need a bit of help. Some of that help they might need is Idaho dropping a game since if both Idaho and Montana finish at 7-4 Idaho has the head-to-head win and probably the edge to get that selection if there's only room for one of them. It's crazy to think that with one game to play the Big Sky could still finish with anywhere from 3-6 bids depending on how things shake out. For now I have them with 5 assuming Montana and Idaho win while UC Davis loses their respective finales.
Locks
Sac St 10-0 (7-0) [0.68/0.32] - UC Davis (68%)
Montana St 9-1 (7-0) [0.44/0.56] - Montana (44%)
Weber St 8-2 (6-2) [0.88/0.12] - @NAU (88%)
Work left to do
Montana 7-3 (4-3) [0.56/0.44] - @Montana St (56%)
In the hunt
Idaho 6-4 (5-2) [0.85/0.15] - @Idaho St (85%)
UC Davis 6-4 (5-2) [0.32/0.68] - @Sac St (32%)
CAA
The CAA is starting to make some sense finally. Richmond and Elon joined W&M as playoff locks. The autobid will either be Richmond (if they beat W&M next week), W&M, or UNH (the latter two depending on conference game point differential if they tie). UNH and Delaware should both be locked in if they win next week which they're both favored to do but Massey doesn't see either as overwhelming favorites. URI made things tough on themselves with their loss to UNH today - they'll be 6th in the CAA pecking order at best and I just don't see there being room for 6 CAA teams. I see the CAA getting to 5 bids if things go to plan next week but it could be 3 or 4 as well if UNH and/or Delaware drop their final game and the bubble is as unforgiving as it looks like it'll be.
Locks
William & Mary 9-1 (6-1) [0.43/0.57] - @Richmond (43%)
Richmond 8-2 (6-1) [0.57/0.43] - William & Mary (57%)
Elon 8-3 (6-2)
Work left to do
New Hampshire 7-3 (6-1) [0.59/0.41] @Maine (59%)
Delaware 7-3 (4-3) [0.57/0.43] - @Nova (57%)
In the hunt
Rhode Island 6-4 (4-3) [0.62/0.38] - Albany (62%)
MVFC
The MVFC playoff contenders continue to dwindle and it's looking more and more like 3 bids is the ceiling while 2 bids is still very much a possibility. SDSU is locked in as the autobid and should be a top 2 seed. NDSU joined them as a lock but needs to win next week to get a seed IMO. UND is in the uneviable position of needing a win @NDSU to lock themselves in and if they lose I think they're in for a sweat given how tough the bubble is shaping up to be and if UND is sweating at 7-4 YSU is in worse shape given their head-to-head loss to UND. I think the Penguins need a bubble implosion (and a win) next week to have a shot while UND just needs a bit of help from other teams on the bubble if they finish 7-4. I'm going to say the MVFC only gets 3 in but another Big Sky, CAA, and SOCON team could definitely leave a 7-4 UND feeling snubbed.
Locks
AUTO: SDSU 10-1 (8-0)
NDSU 8-2 (6-1) [0.76/0.24] - UND (76%)
Work left to do
UND 7-3 (5-2) [0.24/0.76] - @NDSU (24%)
In the hunt
YSU 6-4 (4-3) [0.44/0.56] - SIU (44%)
SOCON
The SOCON got spicy this week with Samford and Furman picking up huge wins. Samford has the autobid locked up and I think they're a win away from potentially a top 4 seed. Furman is practically a lock but I couldn't put them there yet since if they lose at home to 3-7 Wofford next week with a sub-D1 win I think 8-3 for them might get tricky if the bubble stays as tough as it's looking. Of the two with work left to do Chattanooga is in a much better spot as a win @WCU should lock them in. I think Mercer needs to take matters into their owns hands and beat Samford next week if they want to avoid another potential snub. 7-4 with an 0-3 record against the top other top SOCON teams is going to put them on shaky footing given the strength of the bubble. I'm seeing at least 3 bids for the SOCON with 4 still a possibility but if Samford beats Mercer next week, as Massey predicts, I think Mercer drops just barely onto the wrong side of the bubble.
Locks
AUTO: Samford 9-1 (7-0) [0.52/0.48] - Mercer (52%)
Should be in
Furman 8-2 (6-1) [0.88/0.12] - Wofford (88%)
Work left to do
Chattanooga 7-3 (5-2) [0.71/0.29] - @WCU (71%)
Mercer 7-3 (5-2) [0.48/0.52] - @Samford (48%)
OVC and Southland
The Southland is pretty simple - UIW is locked in and should be seeded if they win their finale while SLU is the autobid (if they win) or out (if they lose). The OVC is another story since if both SEMO and UTM win (and they're both massively favored) the OVC auto will be determined by a coin flip and if UTM wins that flip the OVC could be a 2 bid league. UTM's only shot is the autobid in my opinion. As crazy as it may sound Northwestern St could still win the Southland auto if they beat UIW and Nicholls beats SLU but the SLC is a 2 bid league in that scenario as well.
Locks
Incarnate Word 9-1 (4-1) [0.83/0.17] - @NWSU (83%)
Should be in
SEMO 8-2 (4-0) [0.92/0.08] - Murray St (92%)
Work left to do
SLU 7-3 (4-1) [0.72/0.28] - @Nicholls (72%)
In the hunt
UT Martin 6-4 (4-0) [0.85/0.15] - EIU (85%)
Others
There will be 3 autos (Holy Cross and from the ASUN/WAC and Big South) from teams in this group so that will thin the at-large candidates considerably. Florida A&M is a new addition this week but I think, unlike last year, the bubble is going to be too tough for the SWAC to swipe an at large especially with FAMU's 59-3 obliteration at the hands of Jackson St. Holy Cross is locked in as the Patriot League auto and will be seeded if they win their finale - everyone else listed is playing for their playoff lives. The Big South will be simple as the winner of NC A&T @ Gardner-Webb will be the auto and the loser will be done. Fordham would make it really tough to leave them out if they finish 9-2 (like they should) with a razor thin loss to Holy Cross but, as I've mentioned a few times, the bubble is looking to be reallly tough this year and their SOS and quality wins are severely lacking. The WAC/ASUN autobid scenarios are a mess - ACU will be the WAC's candidate for the auto while the ASUN's would be UCA if they win or APSU/EKU/UCA (depending on tie breakers) if UCA's loses. I can't find the most recent ASUN/WAC Power Rankings that would decide the auto but I'd think ACU would be sitting pretty good regardless if they finish 8-3 even with a sub-D1 win. I'm going to guess no one in this group makes the field other than the three autos.
Locks
AUTO: Holy Cross 10-0 (5-0) [0.89/0.11] - @Georgetown (89%)
In the hunt
Fordham 8-2 (4-1) [0.74/0.26] - Colgate (26%)
ACU 7-3 (4-0) [0.58/0.42] - SFA (58%)
Austin Peay 7-3 (3-2) [0.00/1.00] - @Alabama (0%)
NC A&T 7-3 (4-0) [0.36/0.64] - @Gardner-Webb (36%)
EKU 6-4 (2-2) [0.62/0.38] - KSU (62%)
UCA 5-5 (3-1) [0.51/0.49] - Jax St (51%)
Gardner Webb 5-5 (4-0) [0.64/0.36] - NC A&T (64%)
Florida A&M 8-2 (6-1) [0.74/0.26] - BCU(74%)
The Field
So there's 13 at-large available - this is where I see them landing if things go to plan based on Massey odds this last week (which of course they won't) - the lists includes the autos so there's one additional team for each conference on top of the at-larges:
Big Sky: 4 - Sac St (11-0), Montana St (9-2), Weber St (9-2), Montana (8-3), Idaho (7-4)
CAA: 4 - Richmond (9-2), William & Mary (9-2), UNH (8-3), Elon (8-3), Delaware (8-3)
MVFC: 2 - SDSU (10-1), NDSU (9-2), UND (7-4)
SOCON: 2 - Samford (10-1), Furman (9-2), Chattanooga (8-3)
Southland: 1 - UIW (10-1), SLU (8-3)
The other 6 autos:
OVC: SEMO (9-2)
Patriot: Holy Cross (11-0)
ASUN/WAC: ACU (8-3)
Big South: Gardner-Webb (6-5)
NEC: St Francis (9-2)
Pioneer: Davidson (8-3)
The seeds as I see them:
1. Sac St (11-0)
2. SDSU (10-1)
3. NDSU (9-2)
4. Samford (10-1)
5. UIW (10-1)
6. Holy Cross (11-0)
7. Montana St (9-2)
8. Richmond (9-2)
First two out of the seeds: Weber St (9-2), William & Mary (9-2)
Last 4 in: Elon (8-3), Delaware (8-3), Idaho (7-4), UND (7-4)
First 4 out: Mercer (7-4), Fordham (9-2), Rhode Island (7-4), Austin Peay (7-4)
Others on the outside looking in amongst the teams I've listed above: UC Davis (6-5), YSU (6-5), UT-Martin (7-4), EKU (7-4), UCA (6-5), NC A&T (7-4), FAMU (9-2)
The bubble looks super tough this year - seems like most any other year I can recall a team like a 7-4 Mercer or 9-2 Fordham would be in but I don't see it happening this year although there's still plenty that can happen this last week.
What do you think? Feel free to throw out your projection - it's kind of a fun exercise IMO.
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