Just 2 weeks to go until Selection Sunday so here's my list of teams I have in playoff contention - the locks are starting to roll in but that bubble is still looking fairly tough as we hit the final 2 weeks of the regular season. I attempted to handicap everyone's odds based primarily on the Massey projections for them to win/lose their remaining games. You can see all of Massey's updated numbers at https://masseyratings.com/cf2022/fcs/ratings. The numbers in brackets behind each team is Massey's expected remaining wins and losses and the percentage in parenthesis behind each remaining game is Massey's percentage that each team wins that respective game.
Big Sky
Sac St and Montana St are both locks and Sac St is probably a lock for a seed as well. Weber St is virtually a lock given their last 2. Idaho is probably ok winning only one of their last two but would need to win both to avoid a Selection Sunday sweat. I feel like Montana is heading towards a very polarizing 7-4 resume unless they can beat the Bobcats in Bozeman (and Massey actually favors them now) which would lock them in even if they're upset next week by EWU. UC Davis is still in it but they'll probably have to sweep Idaho and Sac St on the road to get in which is a tall order indeed. I see the Big Sky with very solid chance of at least 4 bids but that 5th one might depend on the rest of the bubble.
Locks
Sac St 9-0 (6-0) [1.52/0.48] - @PSU (82%), UC Davis (70%)
Montana St 8-1 (6-0) [1.34/0.66] - @Cal Poly (86%), Montana (48%)
Should be in
Weber St 7-2 (5-2) [1.82/0.18] - Idaho St (98%), @NAU (84%)
Work left to do
Idaho 6-3 (5-1) [1.42/0.58] - UC Davis (55%), @Idaho St (87%)
Montana 6-3 (3-3) [1.28/0.72] - EWU (76%), @Montana St (52%)
In the hunt
UC Davis 5-4 (4-2) [0.75/1.25] - @Idaho (45%), @Sac St (30%)
CAA
The CAA sorted itself out a bit yesterday. W&M is a lock and Elon is looking good needing only to beat Hampton to get to 8-3. Next Saturday will provide some clarity as all 4 teams with "work left to do" play each other - of the 4 Richmond and Delaware are in better shape as the winner next week locks themselves in and the loser could still get in by winning their finale (which isn't a gimme for either team). The winner of UNH and URI will be in very good shape while I think the loser will have a tough time making it to the right side of the bubble even if they finish 7-4 with a win in their finale. Nova is still in the hunt since winning their last two would give them the impressive wins to probably get them in at 7-4 but after getting stomped by Towson that seems very unlikely. I see the CAA getting to 4 bids fairly easily but, like the Big Sky, that 5th one probably depends on the rest of the bubble - even 6 is a possibility with a bubble implosion.
Locks
William & Mary 8-1 (5-1) [1.05/0.95] - Nova (64%), @Richmond (41%)
Should be in
Elon 7-3 (5-2) [0.90/0.10] - @Hampton (90%)
Work left to do
Richmond 7-2 (5-1) [1.10/0.90] - @Delaware (51%), William & Mary (59%)
Delaware 7-2 (4-2) [1.03/0.97] - Richmond (49%), @Nova (53%)
New Hampshire 6-3 (5-1) [1.16/1.84] URI (56%), @Maine (60%)
Rhode Island 6-3 (4-2) [1.05/0.95] - @UNH (44%), Albany (61%)
In the hunt
Villanova 5-4 (3-3) [0.83/1.17] - @W&M (36%), Delaware (47%)
MVFC
The MVFC playoff contenders could really thin next week with the top 2 teams playing the 2 teams clinging for dear life. SDSU is locked for the autobid and a seed and just needs a win in their finale next week against reeling Illinois St to get a top 2 seed. NDSU looks to be in pretty good shape but I'm more nervous than Massey is about their final two. 7-4 looks doable UND but they'll have a Selection Sunday sweat unless they sweep their final 2. Massey still isn't buying YSU but they can still drop a game and finish at 7-4 although will that be enough with a head-to-head loss to UND if there's only room for 3 from the MVFC? SIU and Illinois St both need to win out which is a tall order for them next week but their finale should be easier if they can pull it off. With the way the Big Sky, CAA, and SOCON are hoarding the at-larges I'm going to say the MVFC only gets 2 or 3 teams in but 4 is also still a decent possibility.
Locks
SDSU 9-1 (6-0) [0.94/0.06] - Illinois St (94%)
Should be in
NDSU 7-2 (4-1) [1.42/0.58] - @SIU (66%), UND (76%)
Work left to do
UND 6-3 (4-2) [0.90/1.10] - USD (66%), @NDSU (24%)
YSU 6-3 (4-2) [0.85/1.15] - @Missouri St (41%), SIU (44%)
In the hunt
SIU 5-4 (4-2) [0.90/1.10] - NDSU (34%), @YSU (56%)
Illinois St 5-4 (3-3) [0.91/1.09] - @SDSU (6%), WIU (85%)
SOCON
Pretty boring week in the SOCON as none of the big 4 played each other (Furman and Mercer were on bye) so it's still looking like 4 playoff bids for the conference is a very strong possibility. Samford locked themselves in while UTC and Furman both have a pretty clear path to 8 wins which should lock either of them in. Mercer closes out with two tough ones but a win in either should lock them in and Massey favors them in both. I'm seeing 4 bids for the SOCON but probably only one of the lower seeds given how no team seems likely to separate themselves from the pack unless Samford wins out.
Locks
Samford 8-1 (6-0) [0.84/1.16] - @UTC (38%), Mercer (46%)
Should be in
Chattanooga 7-2 (5-1) [1.35/0.65] - Samford (62%), @WCU (73%)
Furman 7-2 (5-1) [1.20/0.80] - @Mercer (34%), Wofford (86%)
Work left to do
Mercer 7-2 (5-1) [1.20/0.80] - Furman (66%), @Samford (54%)
OVC and Southland
There will be two autobids in this group - UIW is locked in and SEMO looks to be in good shape with a pretty easy path to 9 wins. SLU is favored pretty heavily in their final 2 but if they drop either I think they'd find themselves on the outside looking in. The two teams "in the hunt" are basically just playing for the autobid right now. If UTM and SEMO both finish 5-0 in the OVC the autobid would be decided by a coin flip (since they didn't play each other) which could make the OVC a 2 bid league if UTM wins that flip. As odd as it may sound Northwestern St clinches a share of the Southland title if they win @SLU next week - although it sounds like the NCAA SRS decides the auto if all 3 SLC teams finish 5-1 in conference so NWSU probably has to win out to get in which is, needless to say, going to be very tough for them.
Locks
Incarnate Word 9-1 (4-1) [0.83/0.17] - @NWSU (83%)
Should be in
SEMO 7-2 (3-0) [1.75/0.25] - @EIU (83%), Murray St (92%)
Work left to do
SLU 6-3 (3-1) [1.55/0.45] - NWSU (83%), @Nicholls (72%)
In the hunt
UT Martin 5-4 (3-0) [1.59/0.41] - @TSU (76%), EIU (83%)
Northwestern St 4-5 (4-0) [0.34/1.66] - @SLU (17%), UIW (17%)
Others
There will be 3 autos (from the Patriot, ASUN/WAC, and Big South) from teams in this group so that will thin the at-large candidates considerably. NC Central also dropped from this list as they're back in line for the Celebration Bowl. Holy Cross is locked in and one win away from the PL auto. Fordham would make it really tough to leave them out if they win out to get to 9-2 (like they should) with a razor thin loss to Holy Cross. The WAC/ASUN autobid scenarios are a mess but it seems pretty unlikely there's an at-large coming from that group (which would include EKU, APSU, ACU, UCA, and SFA). The Big South auto will come down to who wins the NC A&T/Gardner-Webb game in a couple weeks - the loser is almost certainly out. It depends on what happens with the leagues above but there may not be any at-large spots left for these teams so the bubble will play just as much of a role in their playoff fates as their own play will. I'm going to guess no one in this group makes the field other than the autos.
Locks
Holy Cross 9-0 (5-0) [1.70/0.30] - Bryant (82%), @Georgetown (88%)
Work left to do
Fordham 7-2 (3-1) [1.46/0.54] - Lafayette (74%), Colgate (72%)
EKU 6-3 (2-1) [1.06/0.94] - @Jax St (43%), KSU (63%)
In the hunt
Austin Peay 6-3 (2-2) [0.52/1.48] - @KSU (52%), @Alabama (0%)
ACU 6-3 (3-0) [0.74/1.26] - @SHSU (22%), SFA (52%)
NC A&T 6-3 (3-0) [0.99/1.01] - CSU (64%), @Gardner-Webb (36%)
UCA 4-5 (3-1) [1.01/0.99] - @SFA (51%), Jax St (50%)
Gardner Webb 4-5 (3-0) [1.17/0.83] - @Campbell (52%), NC A&T (64%)
Stephen F Austin 5-4 (2-2) [0.98/1.02] - UCA (49%), @ACU (48%)
The Field
So there's 13 at-large available - this is where I see them landing if things go to plan based on Massey odds the last 2 weeks (which of course they won't) - the lists includes the autos so there's one additional team for each conference on top of the at-larges:
Big Sky: 4 - Sac St (11-0), Montana St (9-2), Weber St (9-2), Idaho (8-3), Montana (8-3)
CAA: 4 - Richmond (9-2), William & Mary (9-2), Elon (8-3), Delaware (8-3), UNH (8-3)
MVFC: 1 - SDSU (10-1), NDSU (9-2)
SOCON: 3 - Chattanooga (9-2), Mercer (9-2), Samford (8-3), Furman (8-3)
Southland: 1 - UIW (10-1), SLU (8-3)
The other 6 autos:
OVC: SEMO (9-2)
Patriot: Holy Cross (11-0)
ASUN/WAC: UCA (6-5) or ACU (7-4)
Big South: Gardner-Webb (6-5)
NEC: St Francis (9-2)
Pioneer: Davidson (9-2)
The seeds as I see them (in no particular order): Sac St (11-0) Montana St (9-2), Weber St (9-2), Richmond (9-2), SDSU (10-1), NDSU (9-2), Chattanooga (9-2), UIW (10-1), Holy Cross (11-0) - first two out of the seeds: William & Mary (9-2), Mercer (9-2)
On the outside looking in amongst the teams I've listed above: UC Davis (5-6), Rhode Island (7-4), Villanova (5-6), UND (7-4), YSU (6-5), Illinois St (6-5), SIU (6-5), UT-Martin (7-4), Northwestern St (4-7), Fordham (9-2), EKU (7-4), Austin Peay (7-4), ACU (7-4) or UCA (6-5), NC A&T (7-4), SFA (5-6)
Last 4 in (in no particular order): Montana (8-3), UNH (8-3), Furman (8-3), SLU (8-3)
First 4 out (in no particular order): Rhode Island (7-4), UND (7-4), Fordham (9-2), Austin Peay (7-4)
The bubble still looks tough this year but there's still a lot to be decided in the last 2 week - each upset (which are bound to happen) softens it up so there's still plenty of opportunity for these projections to change a lot.
What do you think? Feel free to throw out your projection - it's kind of a fun exercise IMO.
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