3 weeks to go until Selection Sunday and this is list of teams I have in playoff contention along with a few teams who I see as locking themselves in with wins yesterday. I attempted to handicap their odds based primarily on the Massey projections for them to win/lose their remaining games. You can see all of Massey's updated numbers at https://masseyratings.com/cf2022/fcs/ratings. The numbers in brackets behind each team is Massey's expected remaining wins and losses and the percentage in parenthesis behind each remaining game is Massey's percentage that each team wins that respective game.


Big Sky
Sac St is a lock and Montana St and Weber St are virtually locks but after that it gets tricky. According to Massey Idaho has toss-ups the next two weeks and they'll need to at least split those to stay in the conversation and probably win both to avoid a Selection Sunday sweat. I feel like Montana is heading towards a very polarizing 7-4 resume unless they can beat the Bobcats in the brawl which would lock them in even if they're upset once in the next couple weeks. UC Davis is still in it but they'll probably have to sweep Idaho and Sac St on the road to get in which is a tall order indeed. I see the Big Sky with 3-5 bids so I'll split the difference and say 4 as of right now.

Locks
Sac St 8-0 (5-0) [2.02/0.98] - @Weber St (50%), @PSU (82%), UC Davis (70%)

Should be in
Montana St 7-1 (5-0) [2.15/0.85] - @NAU (77%), @Cal Poly (86%), Montana (52%)
Weber St 7-1 (5-1) [2.35/0.65] - Sac St (50%), Idaho St (98%), @NAU (87%)

Work left to do
Idaho 5-3 (4-1) [1.95/1.05] - EWU (61%), UC Davis (51%), @Idaho St (83%)
Montana 5-3 (2-3) [2.14/0.86] - Cal Poly (95%), EWU (72%), @Montana St (48%)

In the hunt
UC Davis 4-4 (3-2) [1.69/1.31] - Idaho St (91%), @Idaho (49%), @Sac St (30%)


CAA
If the CAA was a mess last week it's in utter chaos this week. W&M is looking good but after that it's anyone's guess. Massey like Richmond to win out which might even get them seeded with those impressive wins but I'm still skeptical they can do it. UNH could plausibly end up anywhere from 3-0 and 0-3 in their last 3 - would 7-4 (6-2) be good enough??? Elon's big win over Delaware has them sitting pretty with 3 quality wins and a pretty clear path to 8-3 but if they drop another one things will get dicey in a hurry. Delaware and Rhode Island are looking shaky as 7-4 (or worse) look like a real possibility for them which will put them firmly on the bubble and Nova is still lurking with a chance to throw a monkey wrench into things. I have no clue how this plays out but just based on the sheer number of teams still in contention I'm going to say the CAA gets 4 into the field.

Should be in
William & Mary 7-1 (4-1) [1.84/1.16] - @Hampton (86%), Nova (58%), @Richmond (41%)

Work left to do
Richmond 6-2 (4-1) [1.93/1.07] - UNH (77%), @Delaware (57%), William & Mary (59%)
New Hampshire 6-2 (5-0) [1.34/1.66] @Richmond (23%), URI (54%), @Maine (59%)
Elon 6-3 (4-2) [1.56/0.44] - Albany (69%), @Hampton (87%)
Delaware 6-2 (3-2) [1.46/1.54] - Monmouth (62%), Richmond (43%), @Nova (41%)
Rhode Island 5-3 (3-2) [1.73/1.27] - Maine (68%), @UNH (46%), Albany (59%)

In the hunt
Villanova 5-3 (3-2) [1.74/1.26] - @Towson (73%), @W&M (42%), Delaware (59%)


MVFC
Could the MVFC end up with only 2 playoff teams??? I think it's definitely within the realm of possibilities. SDSU is locked in and NDSU looks to be in pretty good shape - beyond that no one can feel very comfortable. 7-4 looks doable for Illinois St and UND if they win and lose the games the Massey odds say they will but neither would have a marquee win so they couldn't feel too comfortable. YSU has some margin for error but they'll need to win at least 2 of 3 and Massey sees them as underdogs in each of their last 3. SIU and UNI both probably need to win out which is going to be a tough task for either. I'm going to say the MVFC only gets 3 but 4 is also a decent possibility with 2 or 5 both being unlikely but possible.

Locks
SDSU 8-1 (6-0) [1.59/0.41] - @UNI (64%), Illinois St (92%)

Should be in
NDSU 6-2 (4-1) [2.39/0.61] - @WIU (92%), @SIU (65%), UND (78%)

Work left to do
Illinois St 5-3 (3-2) [1.43/1.57] - YSU (58%), @SDSU (8%), WIU (81%)
UND 5-3 (3-2) [1.55/1.45] - @Indiana St (68%), USD (60%), @NDSU (22%)
YSU 5-3 (3-2) [1.31/1.69] - @Illinois St (42%), @Missouri St (40%), SIU (39%)

In the hunt
SIU 5-4 (4-2) [0.90/1.10] - NDSU (35%), @YSU (61%)
UNI 5-4 (3-2) [0.97/1.03] - SDSU (36%), @USD (58%)


SOCON
Chattanooga's loss to Furman yesterday was the SOCON's gain as it's looking like 4 playoff bids for the conference is a very strong possibility. Massey sets Samford, UTC, and Furman all with fairly clear paths to 8 wins which should lock any and all of them in. Mercer closes out with two tough ones but a win in either should lock them in. I'm seeing 4 bids for the SOCON but probably no seeds given how no team seems likely to separate themselves from the pack unless Samford wins out.

Should be in
Samford 7-1 (5-0) [1.69/1.31] - VMI (86%), @UTC (37%), Mercer (46%)
Chattanooga 6-2 (4-1) [2.30/0.70] - @Citadel (92%), Samford (63%), @WCU (75%)
Furman 7-2 (5-1) [1.21/0.79] - @Mercer (35%), Wofford (86%)

Work left to do
Mercer 7-2 (5-1) [1.19/0.81] - Furman (65%), @Samford (54%)


OVC and Southland
I think UIW locked themselves yesterday while SEMO didn't do themselves any favors but should still be fine if they take care of business as they should these last 3 weeks. SLU and UTM are both favored pretty heavily in their final 3 but if either drops one of them, UTM especially, I think they'd find themselves on the outside looking in. I'm still going to guess all 4 of these teams take care of business and make it in.

Locks
Incarnate Word 8-1 (3-1) [1.80/0.20] - HCU (94%), NWSU (86%)

Should be in
SEMO 6-2 (2-0) [2.45/0.55] - @TSU (77%), @EIU (79%), Murray St (89%)

Work left to do
SLU 5-3 (2-1) [2.46/0.54] - @Lamar (87%), NWSU (87%), @Nicholls (73%)
UT Martin 5-3 (3-0) [2.30/0.70] - KSU (70%), @TSU (76%), EIU (84%)


Others
There will probably be 3 autos (from the Patiot, ASUN/WAC, and Big South) from teams in this group so that will thin the at-large candidates considerably. Fordham would make it really tough to leave them out if they win out to get to 9-2 (like they should) with a razor thin loss to Holy Cross. I don't know how the WAC/ASUN auto will play out but with unexpected losses from both SFA and Austin Peay (by Massey's standards) I think it's pretty unlikely any team other than the auto gets in which includes EKU ,UCA, and ACU in the below group. NC A&T is in the driver's seat for the Big South auto and that looks like their only path to the playoffs but Massey favors Gardner-Webb in their last game which could derail them. NC Central continues to be an intersting wild card - despite SCSU's loss yeserday I still don't think NCCU is in line for the Celebration Bowl as the MEAC champ right now but if they win out to get to 9-2 with wins over UNH and NC A&T it would be tough to leave them our. Depending on what happens in the leagues listed above there may not be any at-large spots for these teams so the bubble will play just as much of a role in their playoff fates as their own play will. I'm going to guess no one in this group makes the field other than the autos.


Locks
Holy Cross 8-0 (4-0) [2.69/0.31] - Lehigh (96%), Bryant (84%), @Georgetown (89%)

Work left to do
Fordham 6-2 (3-1) [2.20/0.80] - @Bucknell (78%), Lafayette (73%), Colgate (70%)
EKU 5-3 (1-1) [1.50/1.50] - UCA (48%), @Jax St (40%), KSU (62%)

In the hunt
Austin Peay 5-3 (1-2) [1.27/1.73] - @UNA (68%), @KSU (58%), @Alabama (0%)
ACU 5-3 (2-0) [1.34/1.66] - @Tarleton St (60%), @SHSU (22%), SFA (52%)
NC Central 6-2 (2-1) [1.80/1.20] - Howard (64%), @Norfolk St (70%), @TTU (46%)
NC A&T 5-3 (3-0) [1.83/1.17] - Norfolk St (83%), CSU (63%), @Gardner-Webb (35%)
UCA 4-4 (3-0) [1.61/1.39] - @EKU (52%), @SFA (55%), Jax St (54%)
Campbell 4-4 (2-1) [1.97/1.03] - @Bryant (61%), Gardner-Webb (50%), @Delaware St (85%)
Stephen F Austin 5-4 (2-2) [0.93/1.07] - UCA (48%), @ACU (45%)



So there's 13 at-large available - this is where I see them landing if things go to plan the last 3 weeks (which of course they won't) - the lists includes the autos so there's one additional team for each conference on top of the at-larges:
Big Sky: 3 - Montana St (10-1), Weber St (10-1), Sac St (10-1), Idaho (7-4)
CAA: 3 - Richmond (9-2), William & Mary (9-2), Elon (8-3), UNH (8-3)
MVFC: 2 - SDSU (10-1), NDSU (9-2), UND (7-4)
SOCON: 3 - Chattanooga (9-2), Mercer (9-2), Samford (8-3), Furman (8-3)
OVC: 1 - SEMO (9-2), UT Martin (8-3)
Southland: 1 - UIW (10-1), SLU (8-3)
For the autos I have listed in the "others" category I've got Holy Cross (11-0) out of the Patriot, UCA (7-4) for the WAC/ASUN, and NC A&T (7-4) out of the Big South.

The seeds as I see them (in no particular order): Montana St (10-1), Weber St (10-1), Sac St (10-1), Richmond (9-2), SDSU (10-1), NDSU (9-2), UIW (10-1), Holy Cross (11-0)

On the outside looking in amonst the teams I've listed above: Montana (7-4), Rhode Island (7-4), Villanova (7-4), Delaware (6-5), Illinois St (7-4), UNI (6-5), SIU (6-5), YSU (5-6), Fordham (9-2), EKU (6-5), Austin Peay (7-4), ACU (7-4), NC Central (8-3), Campbell (7-4), SFA (5-6)

Last 4 in (in no particular order): Idaho (7-4), UND (7-4), UT Martin (8-3), SLU (8-3)
First 4 out (in no particular order): Montana (7-4), Rhode Island (7-4), Illinos St (7-4), Fordham (9-2)

The bubble looks tough this year but it usually seems to look tougher at this point in the season with 2-3 games left than it ends up being - each upset that happens in the last 3 weeks (which is bound to happen) softens it up so there's still plenty of opportunity for these projections to change a lot.

I'm not going to take a crack at the bracket since this is all a whole lot of guessing even to put a projected field together


What do you think?