I think you're right that Norfolk State could end up in the CAA. League used to have a major presence in the Norfolk/Virginia Beach area with Old Dominion and NSU would fill that void. In me "where they end up" MEAC blow-up prediction list, I had Morgan State to the CIAA with in-state rival Bowie.
Why not South Carolina State to the SoCon? I don't see the Big South booting Monmouth (b2b champ) and Bob Morris (literally just admitted for football). But I find your creation of a new conference with the northern CAA schools interesting. Would become America East Football.