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Thread: No more 2020 football season?

  1. #41
    AGS FCS Expert PAllen's Avatar
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    Re: No more 2020 football season?

    Quote Originally Posted by lionsrking2 View Post
    The economy will bounce back, lost lives won't. A few months of fiscal pain and disruption will pale in comparison if this thing gets out of control more than it already has. I know people and families who've been devastated. COVID-19 doesn't respect borders, age, race, sex, political affiliation or socioeconomic status. We'll eventually get through it.
    I really hope that you're right about the months part, but I think it will take much longer than that for the economy to recover.

  2. #42
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    Re: No more 2020 football season?

    Quote Originally Posted by ming01 View Post
    Hopefully next time we dont cancel things when we have an above average flu season
    Funny.....I don't remember them lining up refrigeration trucks in NYC for the bodies of flu victims.

  3. #43
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    Re: No more 2020 football season?

    Quote Originally Posted by PAllen View Post
    I really hope that you're right about the months part, but I think it will take much longer than that for the economy to recover.
    That's not what the stock market is saying.....

  4. #44
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    Re: No more 2020 football season?

    The NFL will play. Possibly with no fans, but there is too much TV money not to play. Teams may be isolated.

    As for college football, the season may be moved up to summer and the season end in October. To a great extent, it will depend on when non-Liberty schools reopen their campuses.

    Vaccines are still a year or more away. Of the 5 being tested (of which I am aware), 4 of them are in Phase 1 testing - this is basically where the vaccine is given to healthy people to see if the vaccine does bad things. One potential vaccine is in Phase 2 which is where they fine tune dosage and administration issues. No vaccine is in Phase 3 which is when we find out if the vaccine actually works.

    Viruses in nature tend to follow a bell curve pattern, but that assumes no interventions are taken. Social distancing will change the curve, but also create a situation leaving a large proportion of the population with no immunity. We also don't know how the curve will play out in more rural areas. It may be a gentler, but more prolonged curve than we are seeing in New York, but no-one really knows. Things may normalize some this summer, but we may have to re-distance again in late fall.

    The last estimate I heard was that approximately 50% of all Americans will be exposed this year, and 70% by the end of two years. At that point, the combination of herd immunity as well as potential vaccines and treatments will likely put an end to COVID-19 for the time being and football and other sports will be back by 2021 or 2022. I hope I am wrong and this virus disappears as quickly as it came.

    If college football is played this year, it may be in empty stadia. Imagine if just one carrier of the virus got into the Fargodome. It would change the complexion of this board overnight.

  5. #45
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    Re: No more 2020 football season?

    Quote Originally Posted by walliver View Post
    The NFL will play. Possibly with no fans, but there is too much TV money not to play. Teams may be isolated.

    As for college football, the season may be moved up to summer and the season end in October. To a great extent, it will depend on when non-Liberty schools reopen their campuses.

    Vaccines are still a year or more away. Of the 5 being tested (of which I am aware), 4 of them are in Phase 1 testing - this is basically where the vaccine is given to healthy people to see if the vaccine does bad things. One potential vaccine is in Phase 2 which is where they fine tune dosage and administration issues. No vaccine is in Phase 3 which is when we find out if the vaccine actually works.

    Viruses in nature tend to follow a bell curve pattern, but that assumes no interventions are taken. Social distancing will change the curve, but also create a situation leaving a large proportion of the population with no immunity. We also don't know how the curve will play out in more rural areas. It may be a gentler, but more prolonged curve than we are seeing in New York, but no-one really knows. Things may normalize some this summer, but we may have to re-distance again in late fall.

    The last estimate I heard was that approximately 50% of all Americans will be exposed this year, and 70% by the end of two years. At that point, the combination of herd immunity as well as potential vaccines and treatments will likely put an end to COVID-19 for the time being and football and other sports will be back by 2021 or 2022. I hope I am wrong and this virus disappears as quickly as it came.

    If college football is played this year, it may be in empty stadia. Imagine if just one carrier of the virus got into the Fargodome. It would change the complexion of this board overnight.
    They traced Italy's **** show to a single soccer match and like 2 or 3 people

    Think about that

    Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk


  6. #46
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    Re: No more 2020 football season?

    Quote Originally Posted by clenz View Post
    They traced Italy's **** show to a single soccer match and like 2 or 3 people

    Think about that

    Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk
    I have serious doubts how plausible that explanation is. Millions of people were traveling in and out of Wuhan all over the world before they locked it down and there is still not adequate testing even now anywhere really much less in Italy in mid-February. The fact that people can be asymptomatic and contagious and/or carrying it, potentially spreading it, for 5-14 days before showing symptoms makes my highly skeptical they can trace any of the outbreaks other than the very first one in Wuhan.
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  7. #47
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    Re: No more 2020 football season?

    Quote Originally Posted by Professor Chaos View Post
    I have serious doubts how plausible that explanation is. Millions of people were traveling in and out of Wuhan all over the world before they locked it down and there is still not adequate testing even now anywhere really much less in Italy in mid-February. The fact that people can be asymptomatic and contagious and/or carrying it, potentially spreading it, for 5-14 days before showing symptoms makes my highly skeptical they can trace any of the outbreaks other than the very first one in Wuhan.
    https://time.com/5809848/game-zero-soccer-game-italy/
    (ROME) — It was the biggest soccer game in Atalanta’s history and a third of Bergamo’s population made the short trip to Milan’s famed San Siro Stadium.


    Nearly 2,500 fans of visiting Spanish club Valencia also traveled to that Champions League match.


    More than a month later, experts are pointing to the Feb. 19 game as one of the biggest reasons why Bergamo has become one of the epicenters of the coronavirus pandemic — a “biological bomb” was the way one respiratory specialist put it — and why 35% of Valencia’s team became infected.


    The match, which local media have dubbed “Game Zero,” was held two days before the first case of locally transmitted COVID-19 was confirmed in Italy.


    “We were mid-February so we didn’t have the circumstances of what was happening,” Bergamo Mayor Giorgio Gori said this week during a live Facebook chat with the Foreign Press Association in Rome. “If it’s true what they’re saying that the virus was already circulating in Europe in January, then it’s very probable that 40,000 Bergamaschi in the stands of San Siro, all together, exchanged the virus between them. As is possible that so many Bergamaschi that night got together in houses, bars to watch the match and did the same.

    “Unfortunately, we couldn’t have known. No one knew the virus was already here,” the mayor added. “It was inevitable.”


    Less than a week after the game, the first cases were reported in the province of Bergamo.


    At about the same time in Valencia, a journalist who traveled to the match became the second person infected in the region, and it didn’t take long before people who were in contact with him also had the virus, as did Valencia fans who were at the game.


    While Atalanta announced its first positive case Tuesday for goalkeeper Marco Sportiello, Valencia said more than a third of its squad got infected, “despite the strict measures adopted by the club” after the match in Milan.


    As of Tuesday, nearly 7,000 people in the province of Bergamo had tested positive for COVID-19 and more than 1,000 people had died from the virus — making Bergamo the most deadly province in all of Italy for the pandemic. The Valencia region had more than 2,600 people infected.

    Luca Lorini, the head of the intensive care unit at the Pope John XXIII hospital in Bergamo, currently has 88 patients under his care with the coronavirus; not including many more in other parts of the hospital.


    “I’m sure that 40,000 people hugging and kissing each other while standing a centimeter apart — four times, because Atalanta scored four goals (the final result was 4-1) — was definitely a huge accelerator for contagion,” Lorini told The Associated Press on Wednesday.


    “Right now we’re at war. When peace time comes, I can assure you we will go and see how many of the 40,000 people who went to the game became infected,” Lorini added. “Right now we have other priorities.”


    Silvio Brusaferro, the head of Italy’s Superior Institute of Health, said over the weekend at the nightly nationally televised briefing by the civil protection agency that the game was “one of the hypotheses” being evaluated as a source of the crisis in Bergamo.


    “It’s certainly an analysis that can be made,” Brusaferro said.


    By last week, Bergamo’s cemetery became so overwhelmed by the number of dead that military trucks began transporting bodies to a neighboring region for cremation.

    The official attendance for the Feb. 19 game was 45,792 — a “home” record for Atalanta, a small club making its debut in Europe’s top club competition.


    Atalanta captain Alejandro “Papu” Gómez told Argentine daily Olé it was “terrible” to have played that game.


    “It’s a city of 120,000 people and that day (40,000) went to the San Siro,” the Argentine said. “It was a historic match for Atalanta, something unique. To give you an idea, my wife took three hours to get to Milan, when that trip normally takes 40 minutes.”

    The game was played in Milan because Atalanta’s stadium in Bergamo didn’t meet the requirements set by European soccer governing body UEFA.


    Before the match, Valencia fans freely roamed around Milan and gathered at some of the city’s plazas, including the Piazza del Duomo, drinking and chanting team songs.


    Looking back, the conditions for virus contagion were high, with thousands of people gathering without much concern — at a time when the outbreak in Europe wasn’t yet known — and then traveling back home. Nearly 30 busloads of fans made the 60-kilometer (37-mile) trip from Bergamo to Milan.


    The evening before the match, there was no social distancing as officials from both clubs mingled and exchanged gifts and handshakes at a gala dinner offered by Atalanta.


    “I have heard a lot (of theories), I’ll say mine: Feb. 19, 40,000 Bergamaschi went to San Siro for Atalanta-Valencia,” Fabiano di Marco, the chief pneumologist at the hospital in Bergamo, told Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera. “In buses, cars, trains. A biological bomb, unfortunately.”


    Valencia defender Ezequiel Garay was the first Spanish league player to test positive for COVID-19. The team played a Spanish league game against Alavés about two weeks after the game in Milan, and later Alavés reported that 15 people in the club were infected, though it did not say the cases were directly related to the match against Valencia.


    Italian soccer players’ association president Damiano Tommasi believes sports authorities should look long and hard at the Atalanta match before restarting leagues.





    Much more in the link but you get the idea of it


  8. #48
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    Re: No more 2020 football season?

    Quote Originally Posted by clenz View Post
    https://time.com/5809848/game-zero-soccer-game-italy/


    Much more in the link but you get the idea of it
    Good info. I don't think there's any doubt that it facilitated and accelerated the spread. The virus would've gotten there anyway but it could've been be much more muted had it not been for that match. My skepticism is that all or even a majority of cases in Italy could be traced back to that particular soccer match. I'd bet plenty of them could be traced to people traveling out of country to China or anywhere else the virus has become active since then and then had normal everyday interactions after that which spread it.
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  9. #49
    First Class FCS Ruler NY Crusader 2010's Avatar
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    Re: No more 2020 football season?

    Quote Originally Posted by walliver View Post
    The NFL will play. Possibly with no fans, but there is too much TV money not to play. Teams may be isolated.

    As for college football, the season may be moved up to summer and the season end in October. To a great extent, it will depend on when non-Liberty schools reopen their campuses.

    Vaccines are still a year or more away. Of the 5 being tested (of which I am aware), 4 of them are in Phase 1 testing - this is basically where the vaccine is given to healthy people to see if the vaccine does bad things. One potential vaccine is in Phase 2 which is where they fine tune dosage and administration issues. No vaccine is in Phase 3 which is when we find out if the vaccine actually works.

    Viruses in nature tend to follow a bell curve pattern, but that assumes no interventions are taken. Social distancing will change the curve, but also create a situation leaving a large proportion of the population with no immunity. We also don't know how the curve will play out in more rural areas. It may be a gentler, but more prolonged curve than we are seeing in New York, but no-one really knows. Things may normalize some this summer, but we may have to re-distance again in late fall.

    The last estimate I heard was that approximately 50% of all Americans will be exposed this year, and 70% by the end of two years. At that point, the combination of herd immunity as well as potential vaccines and treatments will likely put an end to COVID-19 for the time being and football and other sports will be back by 2021 or 2022. I hope I am wrong and this virus disappears as quickly as it came.

    If college football is played this year, it may be in empty stadia. Imagine if just one carrier of the virus got into the Fargodome. It would change the complexion of this board overnight.
    This is not going to happen. Already talk that warmer temperatures might not kill this virus so summer activities may be in jeopardy. I can't see campuses across the board opening up for camps in June or July.

  10. #50
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    Re: No more 2020 football season?

    there might be a 2020 season, but it will be played in front of empty stadiums

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