The Bubble (2019 edition)

[Professor Chaos]

So I made an attempt to put together a list of the bubble teams to get an idea of who is in, can get in with a win, and who needs help. For some of the conferences where the autobid is in flux I just included the auto in with the playoff locks for simplicity's sake.

Autos and locks
Note: Teams with the autobid clinched in ALL CAPS - at large bids locked up in parenthesis

Big Sky (3): Montana, Weber St, Sacramento St, Montana St
Big South (0): MONMOUTH
CAA (1): JAMES MADISON, Villanova*
MVFC (3): NORTH DAKOTA ST, Illinois St, South Dakota St, Northern Iowa**
NEC (0): CENTRAL CONNECTICUT ST
OVC (1): Austin Peay, Southeast Missouri St
Patriot (0): Holy Cross (or whoever would get the auto if they lose next week)
Pioneer (0): SAN DIEGO
SOCON (0): WOFFORD
Southland (1): NICHOLLS, Central Arkansas

*Villanova is the weakest of the potential "locks". I think they're probably ok even if they lose to Delaware but they wouldn't be as comfortable as the rest of these teams (outside of UNI) if they lost.
**Probably not completely accurate to call UNI a lock because if they lose to 1-10 WIU at home in week 13 they're asking to be left out but that's not happening


So that's 9 at-arge bids spoken for leaving only 5 up for grabs. This is how I see the bubble stacking up with 12 teams vying for those 5 spots:

Win and you should be in - lose and you'll need help
Albany (@ Stony Brook)
Towson (vs Elon)
Southern Illinois (vs NDSU)
UT Martin* (@ Kentucky)

In the clubhouse on the bubble
Southeastern Louisiana

Win and you've got a shot - lose and you're done
North Dakota (vs SUU)
South Carolian St** (@ Norfolk St)
Kennesaw St (vs Gardner-Webb)
Furman (vs Point(D2))
The Citadel (vs Wofford)

Win and hope for a lot of help from the above teams
Chattanooga (@ VMI)
Maine (@ UNH)


*UT Martin is in if they beat an SEC Kentucky team but I don't think they have any shot without it
**If South Carolina St wins and NC A&T loses then SCSU goes to the Celebration Bowl softening the bubble


So I see the two CAA teams with good shots to lock up 2 of those 5 available bids but if either lose it's pretty unlikely they're selected at 7-5. SIU is unlikely to beat NDSU but I think they're in decent shape probably lumped in with the winners in that 3rd group of 5 if they lose. I think SLU has a strong argument at 7-4. So if SIU loses and that 3rd group of 5 teams all win you've got 7 teams going for potentially only 3 spots.

EDIT: Made a few changes with Nicholls' win over SLU. Also moved The Citadel up a tier since I think wins over Georgia Tech and potentially Wofford would make them look pretty good at 7-5.

[Reign of Terrier]

I think people are too hard on Furman. They're 7-2 against the FCS, those FBS losses are somewhat quality and they're not dropping out of the top 20 in the coaches poll IMO, which the committee uses, so I think they're in.

>Insert my spiel about 7 D1 wins and the socon getting two in.

I just don't see a team getting dropped from seeding consideration to out after a single loss to a team that will make the playoffs. I think people are overthinking this.

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[Professor Chaos]

I think people are too hard on Furman. They're 7-2 against the FCS, those FBS losses are somewhat quality and they're not dropping out of the top 20 in the coaches poll IMO, which the committee uses, so I think they're in.

>Insert my spiel about 7 D1 wins and the socon getting two in.

I just don't see a team getting dropped from seeding consideration to out after a single loss to a team that will make the playoffs. I think people are overthinking this.

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IMO Furman was at the top of a massive jumble between 9 and roughly 30 so it doesn't take as much as you'd think for them to shuffle down to that low to mid 20s range bubble territory. Kennesaw was in that same spot in the polls, lost to a team that will make the playoffs, and I think they're squarely on the bubble as well even with a win next week. They're probably going to be 8-1 vs FCS teams.

And don't try to act like the committee uses the Coach's poll for any kind of a guideline. The proof is in the pudding and the AGS Poll (and STATS poll for that matter) have been better than the Coach's poll at predicting who the committee will select as seeds and at-large teams.

[Reign of Terrier]

IMO Furman was at the top of a massive jumble between 9 and roughly 30 so it doesn't take as much as you'd think for them to shuffle down to that low to mid 20s range bubble territory. Kennesaw was in that same spot in the polls, lost to a team that will make the playoffs, and I think they're squarely on the bubble as well even with a win next week. They're probably going to be 8-1 vs FCS teams.

And don't try to act like the committee uses the Coach's poll for any kind of a guideline. The proof is in the pudding and the AGS Poll (and STATS poll for that matter) have been better than the Coach's poll at predicting who the committee will select as seeds and at-large teams.

Kennesaw will get in

You can think they don't deserve (I don't), but the committee is not going to leave them out.

Conflating the socon and the big south is bonkers.

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[Professor Chaos]

Kennesaw will get in

You can think they don't deserve (I don't), but the committee is not going to leave them out.

Conflating the socon and the big south is bonkers.

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So what has Furman done that's so much more impressive than what Kennesaw has done? If it comes down to 8-4 Furman or 10-2 Kennesaw for that last spot flip a coin I say.

[Reign of Terrier]

So what has Furman done that's so much more impressive than what Kennesaw has done? If it comes down to 8-4 Furman or 10-2 Kennesaw for that last spot flip a coin I say.

Beat Chattanooga. Play Georgia State and Virginia Tech competitive.

We can look to 2017 Furman that made the field with more losses and just as many quality wins.

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[katss07]

Furman fans, wya?

FU has lost to the two teams they needed to beat in conference. Wofford and The Citadel. Playing one of Kennesaw’s punching bags this weekend won’t do anything for them. They’re firmly on the bubble.

[gofurman]

Furman fans, wya?

FU has lost to the two teams they needed to beat in conference. Wofford and The Citadel. Playing one of Kennesaw’s punching bags this weekend won’t do anything for them. They’re firmly on the bubble.

im here. Chattanooga is a good win. Chatt Took Woff to OT at Woff. Chat just BEAT Citadel (the team you name that is a quality team). Furman put their backup QB in and beat Chatt 35-20. So that’s good. Then Furman has TWO FBS games of some quality. You know the VTech team that is going to a bowl and beat Georgia Tech by FORTY FIVE today? The VT that beat UNC Miami and Wake Forest. That team barely beat Furman 24-17 at VT. Georgia State beat Tennesse by 8 at UT. GSU then beat us by 6 at GSU.

[ST_Lawson]

*Probably not completely accurate to call UNI a lock because if they lose to 1-10 WIU at home in week 13 they're asking to be left out but that's not happening

It's a lock.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Maine's been on a roll and were s preseason top 5 team. Definitely get a bit of a "new staff" break from me. How much that excuses the bad start? I have no clue...