2 teams playoff hopes were dashed in week 9 with South Dakota and Youngstown St taking losses they couldn't afford to take. There's still 7 MVFC teams with playoff aspirations but only 2 can feel very comfortable at this point. It seems more and more likely that the conference will get 4 bids with a small possibility of 5 but only getting 3 is still a possibility as well. Here's how they stack up going into the final 3 weeks of the season.
Locks
North Dakota St (8-0, 5-0)
Quality wins: Delaware, SDSU, @UNI, @WIU, ISUr
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: YSU, @MSU, SIU
The Bison are locked in after their win in Vermillion. I think they could drop a game and still be in the top 2 seeds and drop 2 games and probably still be seeded. Needless to say they're in the catbird seat with essentially a 2.5 game lead in the conference standings with 3 to play. An 11-0 regular season seems to be a likely possiblity at this point given their remaining schedule.
Trending towards in
South Dakota St (5-2, 3-2)
Quality wins: Montana St (being generous here due to margin of victory), @ISUr
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: MSU, @SIU, USD
The Jackrabbits picked up a huge win against Illinois St today and are now in great shape to not only make the playoffs but get a 1st round bye as a seeded team. I think they need to win 2 or 3 to assure themselves a spot in the field but winning out seems very likely to put them in the top 8. Their remaining schedule is very manageable with their toughest remaining game being a Missouri St team in a freefall coming to Brookings next week.
Work left to do
Illinois St (5-3, 2-3)
Quality wins: @Colorado St, WIU
Bad losses: MSU
Remaining games: @UNI, @ISUb, YSU
The Redbirds are suddenly kind of reeling after getting swept by the xDSUs. I think any chance they had at a seed went out the window today and they need to win out to avoid a sweat since they've got a sub-D1 win on their resume. I think if they only win 2 of 3 to get to 7-4 they'll probably be ok but they'll need a bit of help elsewhere on the bubble to ensure their spot. They've got a tough 2 game road trip coming up starting with a trip to Cedar Falls to face a UNI team that'll need to get back on track to right their own playoff chances and then a trip to Terre Haute to face a suddenly revitalized Indiana St squad.
Must win out
Western Illinois (4-4, 3-2)
Quality wins: UNI
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @SIU, @USD, ISUb
The Necks kept their momentum going picking up a surprisingly lopsided win against a surging UNI team today. Their playoff hopes are suddenly revitalized with 2 games coming up against the 2 of the 3 bottom teams in the conference to this point and a winnable home game against Indiana St to close out the season. They still need to win out to get in but it's definitely doable for them.
Northern Iowa (4-4, 3-2)
Quality wins: SDSU
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: ISUr, @YSU, MSU
The Panthers lost any momentum they had from sweeping the South Dakota schools with their loss in Macomb today. They went from sole posession of 2nd place in the conference to faced with the proposition of having to win out just to make the playoffs. They have a very interesting matchup next week with a desperate Illinois St team coming to the UNI-dome. If they can win that one it seems pretty likely they can win out from there and get into the playoffs.
Indiana St (4-4, 2-3)
Quality wins: None
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: USD, ISUr, @WIU
The Trees are suddenly formidable with a very real shot at the playoffs following their win in Youngstown today. Their remaining schedule is no piece of cake and they'll need to win out to have any shot at the playoffs with a D2 win amongst their 4 victories but they have a very winnable game against USD next week and if they can win that anything is possible. Given where they came from last year just being in the playoff conversation as the calendar turns to November is a huge improvement for this program.
Missouri St (4-4, 2-3)
Quality wins: ISUr
Bad losses: SIU
Remaining games: @SDSU, NDSU, @UNI
The Bears are essentially out of it after taking a horrible loss at home to SIU today. Their remaining schedule is brutal and they need to win out to have any shot at the playoffs. For now they're still on the list of playoff contenders but they seem destined for the "Eliminated" category very soon.
Eliminated
South Dakota (3-5, 2-3) - The Coyotes saw their playoff hopes dashed today but they've got meaningful games remaining on the schedule so they can still impact the playoff race.
Youngstown St (3-5, 2-3) - The Penguins find themselves in the "Eliminated" section sooner than anticipated following a surprising home loss to ISUb today. We'll see how much effort they give from here on out with possibly a lame duck coach at the helm.
Southern Illinois (2-6, 1-4) - The Salukis win in Springfield today showed that they aren't just going to roll over and be an automatic win from here and out and they'll have more chances to wreak havoc in the MVFC playoff picture in the last 3 weeks.
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