Beating Up On The Patsy Ratings

[carney2]

It's February. That means it's time for yet another Hallmark holiday, you shovel some snow (well, most years you do), it hits you just how far it is to September's opening kickoff, and, yes, it is officially open season on the Patsy Ratings. They're meaningless. They're sheeeet. They are for entertainment purposes only.

I have a day job and don't do many look backs on the Patsies. I certainly don't do any of the player by player look backs that have been suggested by some. In preparing the recently released Lehigh rating for 2012 however, I was struck by just how firmly the Patsies predicted Lehigh's total dominance of the 2011 season, and thought it might be fun (that word again) to see how the Patsies did in predicting the 2011 Patriot League season. I took a very simple approach: I left out the freshmen and took an average of the Patsy Ratings for the 3 upper class years. No weighting; no analysis of who left school or who got injured. Nothing fancy. Here are the results with Fordham included as a full member:

Actual 2011 Patriot League order of finish:
1. Lehigh
2. Georgetown
Holy Cross
4. Bucknell
5. Colgate
Lafayette
7. Fordham

Here is what the Patsy Ratings would have predicted:
1. Lehigh (in a total blowout)
2. Holy Cross
3. Georgetown
4. Bucknell
5. Lafayette
6. Fordham
7. Colgate

Not even close, right? Confirmation at last that the Patsies are the pile of crap that most of you say they are.

Oh yeah, just for more chuckles, here's what the Patsies say for 2012:

1. Lehigh (a big drop as they come back to the pack)
2. Holy Cross
3. Georgetown
4. Bucknell
5. Lafayette
6. Fordham
7. Colgate

Laughable.

[RichH2]

Touchy or Touche can't decide. Regardless ,still enjoy Patsy. Would seem to coorelate . Is it the prioryear's rank or an avg of the prior 3 or 4 yrs that you use to predict?

Must admit my analysis of of past Patsy ratings focused on * players vs non * recruits and their individual career success over their careers.

[carney2]

Touchy or Touche can't decide. Regardless ,still enjoy Patsy. Would seem to coorelate . Is it the prioryear's rank or an avg of the prior 3 or 4 yrs that you use to predict?

Average ratings. i.e., (50+60+70)/3 = 60. No correlation at all. Isn't that the point?

[RichH2]

Thanks Carney. I had edited my 1st response to reflect how I had reviewed Patsy. Never really reviewed them from a predictive angle only historical. Good job

[DFW HOYA]

For February, that's probably a good observation of the 2012 race, although I'd flip HC and GU: Georgetown returns 11 starters on offense and 18 overall and gets the Crusaders at home.

[carney2]

For February, that's probably a good observation of the 2012 race, although I'd flip HC and GU: Georgetown returns 11 starters on offense and 18 overall and gets the Crusaders at home.

It won't change when we get to September. The ratings do not factor in spring practice, late bloomers, injuries, or, as you just did, experience. They are cast in stone on the day the recruiting class is announced. This is, after all, what makes them so ridiculous and leads to the ludicrous results detailed in this thread.

[carney2]

Now you've gone to the absurd. Just stick with the program. Repeat after me: Patsies are meaningless. Patsies are meaningless. Patsies are...

As for Picasso, he was a masterful money machine. He paid for everything - everything, down to, and including a pack of chewing gum - with a check in the hopes that the recipient would value the autograph more than the cash.

See, trivia. You don't get that with other rating systems.

Want more? How about Billy the Kid's real name? William Bonney, you say. Wrong. That was an alias. His real name was William Henry McCarty, Jr.

And the hits just keep coming.

[Mr. C]

I am still trying to figure out who the heck this Patsy is?

[Seawolf97]

I am still trying to figure out who the heck this Patsy is?

A local Italian singer from Pennsylvania. Nice guy good voice .

[Pard4Life]

A local Italian singer from Pennsylvania. Nice guy good voice .

Also a victim of Dr. Hannibal Lector.