Just thought I'd start a seperate thread so all the SLC teams can weigh in on what they think their team's chances are of getting in.
I'll gather my data for UCA and post momentarily.
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Just thought I'd start a seperate thread so all the SLC teams can weigh in on what they think their team's chances are of getting in.
I'll gather my data for UCA and post momentarily.
Here's my take:
Playoffs
IN:
UCA (7-2) - Good wins: Austin Peay, McNeese, SHSU, Western Kentucky (FBS). Bad losses: None. Left on schedule: SLU, SFA, UIW.
Predicted finish: 10-2 with a seed.
Potential at large:
SHSU (5-4) - Good wins: Nicholls, UIW, McNeese. Bad loss: Lamar. Left on schedule: ACU, NWST, HBU
Win out and in. Lose one and out.
ACU (5-4) - Good wins: McNeese, Nicholls. Bad loss: Lamar. Left on schedule: SHSU, SLU, Mississippi State (FBS)
Win two conference games with a good showing against Miss. State, bubble. Lose either conference game and out.
SLU (5-3) - Good wins: none. Bad losses: none. Left on schedule: UCA, ACU, Nicholls (That's a tough finishing stretch)
Win out and in. Win two of three (especially UCA)and bubble. Lose two and out.
UIW (5-4) - Good wins: SLU, ACU. Bad loss: Northwestern State. Left on schedule: SFA, NMSU (FBS), UCA
Win out and in. Win out in conference and lose close to NMSU, bubble. Lose two and out.
McNeese (6-4) - Good wins: SLU. Bad loss: none. Left on schedule: Nicholls, Lamar
Win out and bubble. Lose one and out.
Nicholls (5-4) - Good wins: UCA, UIW. Bad loss: None. Left on schedule: HBU, McNeese, SLU
Win out and in. Lose one and out.
UCA: 7-2 overall, 5-1 conference
Remaining games: Massey win percentage:
SLU: UCA 58% (Big game. Only an 8% margin and we're at home. Ugh. Win this and UCA gets 8 wins for what I believe will be good enough for at least an at large if we fail the next two games)
SFA: UCA 88% (SFA even on a down year gives us fits. Win this + the SLU game and worst we can do is share the conference title.)
UIW: UCA 65% (Not looking forward to this road game. Win and the conference title is outright. Not much other than that.)
Lots of fans of SLC teams pulling for a few UCA losses of course. xlolx
Positives:
1. One game lead over second place SLC teams for autobid.
2. Win over FBS Western Kentucky.
3. Win over #25 Austin Peay
4. Win over #21/25 SHSU
5. Wins over McNeese, ACU, (maybe SLU & UIW later xprayx )
Negatives:
1. Loss to FBS (But this may be seen as more of a nuetral. )
2. Loss to #15 Nicholls (though this was after a bye week and a game AT Hawaii...who knows).
Intangible positives:
Averaging close to 10k in home game attendance.
Only 3 home games this season so far. Not a bad record for a team traveling as much as the Bears.
QB Smith is completing nearly 67% of his passes with a QB Efficiency rating of 152.
We have a bend don't break defense. Not amazing but will do for now.
2 of the last three are at home. UIW the last game is on the road.
Kicking game is solid. Ray is 11/12 on field goals and 30 of 31 on extra points.
With all the injuries to our WR corp, the young talent has come in and stepped up to fill the voids.
Intangible negatives:
Leading receiver Winningham is out for the season with broken arm.
Numerous other injuries are forcing our already young lines to play even younger kids. Freshmen are out there!
Outlook: I think we will win 2 of the last 3. Just seems reasonable to me. That should be good enough for at least a share of the conference title and either an at large or a seed in the playoffs.
This is pretty much as I see it. If UCA wins out, we're a seed. We really need to go 1-2 in the final stretch to make it, as long as one of the losses is not to SFA. If we beat either SLU or UIW but lose to SFA, we may be a bubble team with a bad loss.
I think almost everyone else is in a win-out scenario. The teams that win out have a shot at an at-large. I think SHSU has a great shot, even though they will only have 7 D1 wins if they win out. They definitely have the easier road than anyone else. This week with ACU is a big one for both of those teams. A win keeps hopes alive, a loss and they are done.
What about Nicholls?
5-4 with three games left. They could be 8-4 with wins over UCA, UIW, McNeese and SLU. xeyebrowx
Prediction: Southland will get three in the playoffs.
Most likely scenario: Auto: UCA At-large: SHSU and Nicholls
Nobowls not showing the SLC any love.