FCS Playoff Records by Conf: 2011-18
On the MVFC thread, I said I would pull the playoff record results by conference. Let me first point out that I purposely selected 2011-18 because that is period subsequent to the Colonial's domination of FCS landscape for the period 2010 & prior going back to 2003 .. they clearly dominated that era. My point in doing this is to shed some light on fact that MVFC continues to get short end of stick. And the playoff results in the last 8 years bear that out ... even removing NDSU from our results.
My thanks to Clenz for the running start with his sspreadsheet for 2014 & prior.
Below are playoff records for 2011-18 by conference, with MVFC split into NDSU and "not NDSU". I also split the conferences into Pools A & B based on # of games played ... meaning conferences that have recently relied more on autobids would fall into Pool B. I then compare Pool A and B, including further splitting Pool A into Pool A exc NDSU and MVFC.
I would then point on that MVFC excl NDSU has outperformed every other conference over this period with a .553 win %. Note, if I removed MVFC head-to-head playoff games, our win % would improve to about .600 against all othe conferences. Colonial was not far behind at .515, but imagine that number if we removed one of their best teams from their results. So the notion that MVFC is Paul McCartney and the Wings .. well, the Wings are doing quite well on their own since 2011.
But the larger point is how on earth did we only get 3 teams into playoff in 2018 ... the FCS selection committee reverted to their old ways 2013 & prior, when MVFC was routinely screwed out of playoff bids. And if ever a conference deserved 6 teams, who wuoldn't assum MVFC 2014 should have had 6 .. but no Colonial got that distinction in 2018 and went 3-6. Then the other insult in 2018, 2 teams with identical 6-4 D-I records from Southland got bids over a 6-4 MVFC team .. on what planet does that make any sense .. Southland had been the 4th bext conference the last several years .. yet got 3 teams just like MVFC ... 2 of which were 6-4, while ISUb 6-4 stayed home.
Sp never mind NDSU domination, the rest of MVFC flat out has deserved more bids and better seeds. 2018 took a step backwards. Quite simply, our playoff record would tend towards the average if the committee was more objectively considering MVFC teams for playoff bids and giving us more at large bids ... the results below are all the evidence one should need.
Sincerely,
One of The Wings
|
|
|
|
2011-18 |
2018 |
2017 |
2016 |
2015 |
2014 |
2013 |
2012 |
2011 |
Conference |
Pool |
Games |
W-L% |
W |
L |
W |
L |
W |
L |
W |
L |
W |
L |
W |
L |
W |
L |
W |
L |
W |
L |
Big Sky |
A |
47 |
0.447 |
21 |
26 |
6 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
Colonial |
A |
66 |
0.515 |
34 |
32 |
3 |
6 |
6 |
4 |
8 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
6 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
3 |
5 |
MVFC |
A |
78 |
0.718 |
56 |
22 |
7 |
2 |
8 |
4 |
7 |
4 |
8 |
4 |
10 |
4 |
5 |
1 |
6 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
MVFC - NDSU |
A |
31 |
0.968 |
30 |
1 |
4 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
MVFC - not NDSU |
A |
47 |
0.553 |
26 |
21 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
6 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
Southern |
A |
35 |
0.429 |
15 |
20 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
Southland |
A |
40 |
0.500 |
20 |
20 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
2 |
Big South |
B |
23 |
0.478 |
11 |
12 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
MEAC |
B |
6 |
0.000 |
0 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
NEC |
B |
10 |
0.200 |
2 |
8 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
OVC |
B |
23 |
0.391 |
9 |
14 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
Patriot |
B |
16 |
0.375 |
6 |
10 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Pioneer |
B |
8 |
0.250 |
2 |
6 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Total |
|
352 |
0.500 |
176 |
176 |
23 |
23 |
23 |
23 |
23 |
23 |
23 |
23 |
23 |
23 |
23 |
23 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2011-18 |
2018 |
2017 |
2016 |
2015 |
2014 |
2013 |
2012 |
2011 |
Conference Pool |
Pool |
Games |
W-L% |
W |
L |
W |
L |
W |
L |
W |
L |
W |
L |
W |
L |
W |
L |
W |
L |
W |
L |
Pool A |
A |
266 |
0.549 |
146 |
120 |
18 |
17 |
20 |
17 |
22 |
17 |
17 |
15 |
20 |
15 |
16 |
13 |
16 |
13 |
17 |
13 |
Pool A exc NDSU |
A* |
235 |
0.494 |
116 |
119 |
14 |
17 |
16 |
17 |
20 |
16 |
13 |
15 |
16 |
15 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
Pool A excl MVFC |
A* |
188 |
0.479 |
90 |
98 |
11 |
15 |
12 |
13 |
15 |
13 |
9 |
11 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
12 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
12 |
Pool B |
B |
86 |
0.349 |
30 |
56 |
5 |
6 |
3 |
6 |
1 |
6 |
6 |
8 |
3 |
8 |
7 |
10 |
3 |
6 |
2 |
6 |
Total exc NDSU |
AB* |
321 |
0.455 |
146 |
175 |
19 |
23 |
19 |
23 |
21 |
22 |
19 |
23 |
19 |
23 |
19 |
23 |
15 |
19 |
15 |
19 |
Re: FCS Playoff Records by Conf: 2011-18
After I crunched this and the posted results, I was kinda expecting something more like this ....
https://thumbs.gfycat.com/IdealScornfulDeer-max-1mb.gif
BUt I got this instead xdontknowx
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/i...fWyMqAUBCxg1tg
Re: FCS Playoff Records by Conf: 2011-18
Below is what I wrote in another thread about something similar to this. Basically, the FCS is not a subdivision run by a single conference, so much as it is run by a handful of teams. As for the MVFC itself, they benefit greatly by playing the lesser OVC teams, sketchy Big Sky teams (see: not EWU), Southland teams that haven't won a playoff game (or have only won 1-2) in the last two decades, or schools like Monmouth who have no business being there. To be fair, the Big Sky also benefits from this. Basically, because of the travel restricts of the subdivision, the CAA and Socon get kind of screwed with first round games (with the exception of the CAA team that draws the Patriot team, usually, but even then that game isn't a given at times) so a lot of edge teams (ETSU, Elon) have a harder time winning playoff games whereas UNI can draw Monmouth and piledrive them into oblivion.
Anyway, here's what I wrote wrt the FCS not being about conferences:
Here are the conferences with the most top 4 finishes since 2010:
MVFC: 12
CAA: 9
Southland: 5
Socon: 3
OVC:1
Now, let's take out the teams that have the most top 4 appearances (NDSU, EWU, SHSU--those three teams account for literally half of the top 4 appearances in the last decade) and rank them. We will also take out Georgia Southern, for obviously reasons:
CAA: 9
MVFC: 4
OVC: 1
Big Sky: 1
Southland: 0
Socon: 0
And really, the discrepancy gets worse if you throw in JMU, New Hampshire, SDSU and in the conversation, which I think you should when talking about top programs in the FCS for obvious reasons. That brings it to:
CAA: 5
MVFC: 2
Big Sky: 1
OVC: 1
Southland: 0
Socon: 0
Now, this is where that the well of comparisons run a little dry. I think it's safe to say that the FCS is conclusively run by NDSU, followed by EWU, SHSU and JMU. Then after that, it's a second tier of New Hampshire and SDSU. After those 6 teams, you have this mass of humanity with teams like Jacksonville State, Kennesaw state, Wofford, Maine, Illinois State, Youngstown State, Montana, and a bunch of CAA teams.
By one measure, you could say Montana is a better team/program than Wofford right now because they made the semifinals in 2011, though Wofford hasn't made the semifinals since 2003. This, in spite of the fact that Montana has won less games in the last decade and has not made the playoffs since 2015. Is Youngstown State or Towson or Delaware a better program right now than Kennesaw State or Wofford right now? Because each of those three programs indeed made it to a championship game, but they haven't won a playoff game or made the playoffs in the last decade other than that outlier, single year.
Is Maine a better program right now than Wofford because Maine made it to the semifinals this past year, even though their coach bailed after the season, while the program hadn't won a playoff game in like the previous decade?
Fact is, we're a subdivision run by teams, not conferences. Also, you could argue that some of those teams benefit from geography (JMU is a better program than SHSU but has less semifinal appearances), but that's another discussion. The top/relevant teams are:
1) NDSU
2) EWU
3) JMU (even though they have less semifinal appearances)
4) SHSU
5) SDSU
6) New Hampshire
7) stalwart quarterfinalists like JSU, Maine, Kennesaw State, Wofford etc. Each has something special about them (Wofford=gets at least a win and only gets boatraced by NDSU, JSU had the magical run, KSU is a wunderkind, etc)
***Admittedly, the above rant is the response of an MVFC troll who keeps popping up on socon threads telling us how terrible the Socon is because we haven't had a team make the semifinals or advance to a certain point in the playoffs. But it illuminates why MVFC teams often have a good record. Take away SDSU and NDSU and the MVFC isn't super duper better than everyone else. Illinois State had a good year a few years ago, but hasn't won a playoff game in a while. UNI has quite a few wins, but they also have had a lot easier draw than any socon team, I would argue.
Basically, if you control for NDSU/SDSU and you look at what the MVFC does, you see just as much noise as signal.
Re: FCS Playoff Records by Conf: 2011-18
The TL;DR of my above comment:
The FCS is run by 6 teams: NDSU, EWU, JMU, SHSU, SDSU, New Hampshire, and then a handful of other teams who are good but haven't had the same level of consistency
The fact that New Hampshire is measurably the 6th best FCS program in the last decade (as measured by consistency, making the playoffs, winning games, and getting to at least the quarterfinals) and the fact that they have more playoff wins in the last decade than Illinois State, yet Illinois State is elevated by the MVFC types because they had one good run in the playoffs a few years ago (that didn't win a championship), kind of demonstrates an MVFC bias by their fans.
Because if you're looking just at wins, yes the MVFC has more of them, but those opponents are a lot easier than most of the CAA and Socon has to deal with, on average, in the first round.
But if you look at final playoff position, (which is kind of noisy, because a team advancing to the quarterfinals instead of exiting in the second round, or advancing to the semis compared to the quarterfinalist in another bracket, can come down to matchups), there's not much special about the MVFC. NDSU and SDSU are the only consistent teams. They inflate the significance of Youngstown State and Illinois State in the playoffs, but you don't see CAA fans doing that with Towson, who also made the FCS championship.
Re: FCS Playoff Records by Conf: 2011-18
Going back to the SWAC's playoff days, they were oh-and-(?). Right?
Re: FCS Playoff Records by Conf: 2011-18
Great analysis but to really tell the tale, we need to see those results with head to head conference opponent playoff games omitted. The CAA and MVFC routinely have to play other conference teams in the playoffs, often in the QF rounds or earlier. It seems to skew the numbers if you're adding in an 1-1 record with each of those matchups.
Re: FCS Playoff Records by Conf: 2011-18
Quote:
Originally Posted by
RootinFerDukes
Great analysis but to really tell the tale, we need to see those results with head to head conference opponent playoff games omitted. The CAA and MVFC routinely have to play other conference teams in the playoffs, often in the QF rounds or earlier. It seems to skew the numbers if you're adding in an 1-1 record with each of those matchups.
Same with SoCon.
In 2017, Furman beat the #3 team in the CAA on the road in the post season (Elon). They then immediately had to play Wofford.
In 2016, the Citadel beat Charleston Southern and then had to play Wofford.
Could the SoCon have had a deeper run in the post season if they didn't have to play their own conference in the second round? Probably.
Re: FCS Playoff Records by Conf: 2011-18
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Reign of Terrier
The TL;DR of my above comment:
The FCS is run by 6 teams: NDSU, EWU, JMU, SHSU, SDSU, New Hampshire, and then a handful of other teams who are good but haven't had the same level of consistency
The fact that New Hampshire is measurably the 6th best FCS program in the last decade (as measured by consistency, making the playoffs, winning games, and getting to at least the quarterfinals) and the fact that they have more playoff wins in the last decade than Illinois State, yet Illinois State is elevated by the MVFC types because they had one good run in the playoffs a few years ago (that didn't win a championship), kind of demonstrates an MVFC bias by their fans.
Because if you're looking just at wins, yes the MVFC has more of them, but those opponents are a lot easier than most of the CAA and Socon has to deal with, on average, in the first round.
But if you look at final playoff position, (which is kind of noisy, because a team advancing to the quarterfinals instead of exiting in the second round, or advancing to the semis compared to the quarterfinalist in another bracket, can come down to matchups), there's not much special about the MVFC. NDSU and SDSU are the only consistent teams. They inflate the significance of Youngstown State and Illinois State in the playoffs, but you don't see CAA fans doing that with Towson, who also made the FCS championship.
I haven't put a ton of thought in this, but we may well get to the point where the playoffs are going to spit out essentially the same matchups every season.
It won't happen every year, but it seems pretty likely that we are going to continue to see some combination of Elon v. SoCon v. JSU v. SoCon v. Kennesaw State v. SoCon. Since 2016, SoCon teams have played 8 of 10 first and second round contests against either (1) the BigSouth Champ (CSU/KSU), (2) JSU, (3) Elon, or (4) another SoCon team.
I'm not sure it's great for FCS football to essentially see the same post season matchups every year.
Re: FCS Playoff Records by Conf: 2011-18
I'm just extremely skeptical of the MVFC chest-beating (as is evident by my posting habits). The subtext of the argument of the OP is that 1) the playoff committee should give preference to MVFC teams because 2) they win more playoff games.
But I'll be honest, I really don't care about what your 3rd, 4th or 5th team does in the first round of the playoffs, which is really where the meat of the argument that the MVFC has depth comes from. Because the pattern is essentially "beat a team in the first round, lose to a good team in the second." And well...if you have a certain amount of teams in the field, as a matter of raw probability you'll likely have most advance.
For example, Wofford's playoff losses have come to:
2003: National champion (#2 seed)
2007: semifinalist
2008: semifinalist (#1 seed)
2010: semifinalist
2011: quarterfinalist (#2 in some polls, #5 seed)
2012: National Champion (#1 seed)
2016: national runner up
2017: National Champion (#2 seed)
2018: Quarterfinalist (#4 seed)
(notes: only 2007 and 2010 were home games, for whatever that's worth)
Now, you can uncharitably look at this and say "well, Wofford just chokes, but that's not the entire story. 2017 (NDSU) and 2003 (Delaware) were the only games not in doubt within the last 5 minutes. The point is, given Wofford's history of strong performances in the playoffs, many of them coming as at-large teams (2008, 2010, 2011, 2012,2016) I have a hard time believing that the playoff selection committee should operate under the heuristic that the 4th or 5th place MVFC team has more of a place in the playoffs than the third place socon team just because they play in a tougher conference and on occasion they win a playoff game.
Really, if you look at the performances of the 4th and 5th place MVFC team any given year, and how they perform in the playoffs, I'm skeptical that the opponents that eliminate them (sans NDSU) are equally or even more impressive.
Re: FCS Playoff Records by Conf: 2011-18
The fact we have to remove a team just to make one conference fall back into the pack is....well it's a thing.