Big Sky Power Rankings 10-24

[JALMOND]

As we approach the end of October, some things are coming into place in the Big Sky. Entering the home stretch, obviously the two Montana schools are the elite in the conference, but where are the rest. Really, all that means, however, is there is still a good chance for everything to be topsy-turvy again. Here are this week's power rankings for the Big Sky (last week's rankings). All are my opinion only and all are open for discussion. Not much movement, is this close to where they will finish?

1. Montana State (1)---So it wasn't the prettiest of the Bobcats wins this season but they did accomplish what they wanted and crossed Northern Colorado off their conference game list this season. All the changes going on in the conference and the Bobcats still roll along. This weekend they welcome their former coach who is now at Idaho State and will relish a chance for an upset.

2. Montana (2)---Wins may not be all that pretty for the Grizzlies, case in point their last game at Northern Arizona, but they are still wins and they still count for that. To win there, you don't have to win pretty, you just have to win and at the end, they were on top. This week, they return home to face Weber State. Another game that may not be easy.

3. Eastern Washington (3)---With the way the season began for the Eagles, hardly anyone thought they could turn it around like they did. If there was a game that exemplified their run so far, it was last week when they needed to rally in the fourth quarter at Sacramento State, then win it in overtime. Now, they march back home and face Portland State in their quest to return to the playoffs.

4. Sacramento State (5)---Heartbroke. That is the perfect word to describe the Hornets last week as they let Eastern Washington escape with a win that was theirs by most accounts, except that at the end. Now, it is their backs that are against the wall and, with Northern Arizona coming to town, that is quite the tall order to fill. Still, a win would erase some of those memories.

5. Weber State (4)---Speaking of teams that let one get away, the Wildcats seemed to be in control of their game against Southern Utah at the half. Then they let up in the third quarter and could not get it going again. The good news is that it was non conference so it didn't hurt them in the conference. The bad news is now they need a win at Montana, a place that has not been too kind to them recently.

6. Portland State (6)---Other teams played some meaningful games last weekend. Then there was the Vikings that held a scrimmage against DIII Willamette, who are a good team in DIII, but who proved no match for the Vikings. Now, they need to shake off the good feelings and get back to the FCS as they have to go on the road to Eastern Washington.

7. Northern Arizona (7)---The Lumberjacks had Montana right there and did play Montana tough for the whole game. Yet they just could not pull it out at the end and it resulted in another close loss. Now they are relegated to playing spoiler the rest of the season. This weekend, they look to end the aspirations of Sacramento State and their magical season.

8. Idaho State (8)---If there was a team in the conference that is transforming before our eyes, it is the Bengals. Obviously they are taking a look at different people and getting ready for next year, which is why a game with Brigham Young was probably a good thing. This week, they head to Montana State and, if there was one game circled at the beginning of the Bengals' season, this may have been it.

9. Northern Colorado (9)---The bad news first, the Bears did what was expected and lost last week to Montana State. The good news, they showed they are becoming a much better team than they were as the Bobcats could never totally pull away from the Bears. Good, however, will only get you so far if you cannot win football games. This week they venture out of conference and welcome North Dakota to their home turf. Is that win just around the corner?

[wapiti]

1. Montana State ---After listening to the game against UNC I was tempted to move MSU to 2nd, but then after seeing the griz struggle against NAU I could not.

2. Montana ---Had a chance to prove a 1st place ranking, but fell short of that proof. But the win keeps them in a solid 2nd and not far behind 1st. Will the off field issues prove a distraction to the Griz. And is the Griz coaching staff going to do anything to the offending players? or is a loud drunken party at 2:40 in the morning not unbecoming of a Griz football player? (getting suspended for the Western Oregon game would be a light slap on the wrist.)

3. Eastern Washington ---EWU played a really good 4th quarter and OT and brought home the W. EWU is still in the hunt.

4. Sacramento State ---One more loss and Sac state will be out of the playoff hunt. A bit of a suprise after beating a BCS FBS confrence team to start the season.

5. Weber State ---Still in the hunt for 7 wins, but that is a mighty big order with the remaining schedule.

6. Portland State ---Nice to see the expected W last weekend, now back to BSC games and the role of spoiler

7. Northern Arizona ---Tough loss against UM

8. Idaho State ---With the improved play of UNC, ISU is in threat of being ranked last in my ranking. A big game in Bozeman with Kramer playing his former team.

9. Northern Colorado ---Played a good game against MSU. I like seeing the improved play from UNC. Hopefully that continues and they may move up a spot.

Standings:
Conf All
Montana State 5-0 7-1
Montana 5-1 6-2
Weber State 3-1 3-4
Eastern Washington 4-2 4-4
Portland State 2-2 4-3
Sacramento State 2-3 3-4
Northern Arizona 1-4 2-5
Idaho State 1-4 2-6
Northern Colorado 0-6 0-8

[MSUBobcat]

Here's my weekly stab at this. No change from last week.

#1-3 are my picks to make the playoffs.
1. MSU (1) - I said last week that they stay #1 until someone knocks them off their perch. Some poor play against a surprising UNC team almost had that happen and made me question their hold on the spot. But who would replace them. UM had an ugly game also and MSU beat EWU at the Inferno. MSU stays #1, but I hope last week was a fluke.
2. UM (2)- Not their best game @NAU, but it can be a tough place to play. They did win though, and of my 2-5 spots, only EWU can say that and the Griz have beaten them. They also need to put on a dominating performance to reaffirm this position.
3. EWU (3) - After a bad start to the season, they appear to have righted the ship. Sac St. gave them all they could handle, but that same team, in their only other home game so far, handed the Griz their only conference loss (to date ;)) so EWU getting out with a win, even in OT, is nothing to take for granted.

#4-5 are fairly close in my rankings, and both can still reach 7 D-I wins to become playoff eligible. Neither has a particularly easy path however.
4. WSU (4) - Even with a loss last weekend, I give WSU the nod over Sac St. due to their head-to-head victory and common opponents. BBQ beat Sac St. convincingly, albeit at home, and WSU played SUU much closer than Sac St. (again w/ WSU at home and Sac St. getting them on the road).
5. Sac St. (5) - I wanted to put them at #4, because that is where I think they end up after the upcoming games. WSU will be playing the top 2 teams in the next 2 weeks, with the next one being in Wa-Griz. However, this is a ranking for this week and the games up to date and not how I think they end up next week, so Sac St. gets the 5-spot.

#6-9 cannot make the magic number of 7 D-I wins, and are mathematically ineligible for the playoffs.
6. PSU (6) - Only team besides the top 3 to win last weekend, but it was a D-III school so they did what was expected. Until I can see how they perform w/o McCaffrey against a comparable foe, I couldn't justify moving them up.
7. NAU (7) - Though they played the Griz tough, the loss mathematically eliminates them from the playoffs.
8. ISU (8) - They have been getting blown out of late. Hopefully, this trend continues for at least one more week :D, as Kramer heads up to Bozeman to play his former team.
9. UNC (9) - I came away pretty impressed with UNC last weekend (or was I UNimpressed by the Bobcats?). I couldn't justify moving them over ISU yet, due to having no wins and ISU having 2, including the head-to-head advantage. This weekend's game hosting UND may be their best chance at a victory, and a potential move out of the basement. Good luck, Bears.

[Walkon79]

BLM is playing better than anyone right now. My hope is they keep it going as it's probably our only chance to get 3 teams in. I thought Weber had to now win out to get the AQ?

[veinup]

fully agree with your rankings, jalmond.

MSU and UM on top. as the season nears it's end, this is how i like it. brawl of the wild will be intense this year.

[MSUBobcat]

BLM is playing better than anyone right now. My hope is they keep it going as it's probably our only chance to get 3 teams in. I thought Weber had to now win out to get the AQ?

If Weber wins out, they finish 7-1 in conference play, with the tie-breaker of winning the head-to-head over MSU (assuming that is the Cats' only loss). However, there is still at least one scenario where they can lose one more and still win the AQ. This scenario involves beating both MT schools, then losing v. NAU or @PSU, to finish 6-2. UM would have to beat MSU in the Brawl, making all 3 finish 6-2. Weber would get the AQ by virtue of beating the other co-champs. This assumes EWU loses one game v. PSU or @ ISU, because if they didn't, EWU, WSU, MSU, and UM ALL finish 6-2, and I don't want to figure out who wins the tie-breaker in that case. xrotatehx Basically, its still a 4 horse race, but only MSU and UM control their own destiny, i.e. if both win out, the Brawl of the Wild is for the AQ.

[Uncle Rico's Clan]

Montana State has 0 conference losses, Montana has 1 conference loss. This is why msu should be 1, and UM 2.

[Walkon79]

Montan State - 31
Northern Colorado (0-8) - 21

score was 24-21 going into the fourth qtr....

This is the reason why Montana should be at #1 and not Montana State

Really? We b-tch-slapped NAU and SAC, while the Griz won by 4 and lost.

[veinup]

Montan State - 31
Northern Colorado (0-8) - 21

score was 24-21 going into the fourth qtr....

This is the reason why Montana should be at #1 and not Montana State

uh, no. in no way can montana feasibly be ranked ahead of state.

[Grizalltheway]

so MSU you state that you never trailed once to the 0-8 team that you played last week, but do you think that it is the mark of the top team in this league to barely be ahead 24-21 to an 0-8 team at the start of the 4th quarter and barely beat them by a few points in the final score?

oh wait, but you never trailed once

ok, I get it

Dude. They're undefeated in conference play, and we have one (bad) loss. How hard is this for an Ivy League-er to understand? xrolleyesx

[ursus arctos horribilis]

MSU, I ask you again, why in the world would you ever viciously attack and call someone a pussy when you have no idea who they are or what they are capable of doing, particularly when it is unprovoked....

He never called you a pussy. He said this sort of stuff makes your pussy moist. Don't try and start making threats against people because that is the line in case you are thinking of going there. Being insulted is not a personal attack but if you start threatening personal violence then it is.

If you want to dish it out then please be good enough to take it.

[Ginsbach]

Dude. They're undefeated in conference play, and we have one (bad) loss. How hard is this for an Ivy League-er to understand? xrolleyesx

Well, after MSU suffers a bad loss in conference this week, there will be reason to talk... xsmiley_wix

Maybe in my dreams.

[MSUBobcat]

JALMOND, I apologize, as do the other gentlemen I'm sure for taking this off track.

If you'd like pm me and I'll move this alternate discussion to it's own thread.

I like your power ranking threads a lot but in this instance we got a little off track.:o

I apologize immensely JALMOND. I am ashamed that I let him bait me into arguing with him for so long, especially on your Power Rankings, which I look forward to each week. I'm going to delete my unrelated posts to clear up this clutter. TheFan, if you are indeed classy, please do the same.

[MTfan4life]

What is happening here?

Montana State
Montana
Eastern Washington
Weber State
Sacramento State
Portland State
Northern Arizona
Idaho State
Northern Colorado

Montana struggled against cellar dweller Idaho State in 2009, and it didn't change their season. I can't really make a close win over lowly NC a reason to drop Montana State below anyone.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

What is happening here?

Montana State
Montana
Eastern Washington
Weber State
Sacramento State
Portland State
Northern Arizona
Idaho State
Northern Colorado

Montana struggled against cellar dweller Idaho State in 2009, and it didn't change their season. I can't really make a close win over lowly NC a reason to drop Montana State below anyone.

I was thinking of that exact scenario and it happened almost every year we went to the NC by a team that was low if not the cellar dweller. It doesn't have anything to do with where a team is going to end up or what their actual power is especially when they do it on the road.

[MSUBobcat]

Montana struggled against cellar dweller Idaho State in 2009, and it didn't change their season. I can't really make a close win over lowly NC a reason to drop Montana State below anyone.

I always feel that winless teams can be dangerous, because they want to win so badly that they give everything they've got. And when they play the conference leader, it's just that much more inspirational. One big victory can salvage some semblance of dignity for the players. I'm not trying to make excuses for that game; we didn't play up to our potential, and we can't have any more games like that.

[veinup]

TheFan, could you just stop ****ting up the thread?

[montanafan]

Hey Jalmond,

Just want to give credit where credit is due. I think all the big sky fans look forward to your post and appreciate the level of effort that you put into these weekly reports. Good job and like most intelligent people on this site, I have choosen to ignore the endless rants of one socially inept individual. Keep it up.

Thanks

[bobcathpdevil56]

Just want to say how much i appreciate this thread as well. I look forward to it every week. Thanks

[MSUBobcat]

Well, after MSU suffers a bad loss in conference this week, there will be reason to talk... xsmiley_wix

Maybe in my dreams.

If we overlook the Bengals and play like we did last week, I can easily see this being the case. Hopefully, the 'Cats use it as motivation to not sleep on any team, regardless of record. We've come too far in the season to lose our seed now.

[MTfan4life]

Coach Kramer will have his team ready. Idaho State likes bringing their best to play the Montana teams, especially the one that is atop the league. They have been pretty awful this year, and the game IS in Bozeman. You never know with the Big Sky though, showing up is a must.

[JALMOND]

Here I thought I'd come home from work and we'd be pushing 100 posts on this.:)

Thanks to all for the kind words and comments. I'm glad these have evolved into something everyone can enjoy and have some good dialogue. About the only difficult part of the whole thing is that I try not to give the same analysis as I do on CS. That's where having a B.S. in BS comes in handy.

[veinup]

i'll throw in on the JALMOND love fest. dude is the man. just wish he was a griz fan.

[veinup]

http://www.college-sports-journal.com/index.php/79-college-sports-journal/chuck-burton/69-projecting-the-fcs-playoff-field-week-9

Big Sky Conference: Four teams have a shot at the championship, but I think Montana - not 7-1 Montana State - will be the team that wins the autobid.

wow. what. why!? article doesn't give much clarification.. is he also saying montana will get a seed? whaaaat?

[MSUBobcat]

http://www.college-sports-journal.com/index.php/79-college-sports-journal/chuck-burton/69-projecting-the-fcs-playoff-field-week-9

Big Sky Conference: Four teams have a shot at the championship, but I think Montana - not 7-1 Montana State - will be the team that wins the autobid.

Meh. I have a hard time putting any stock in someone who figures Sac St. beats EWU this week (the only way Sac St. can reach 7-4), then in the next sentence says, "And don't be surprised id (sic) the Eastern Washington/Cal Poly game on November 12th is a de-facto play-in game for both teams." I'd put money on it that the only way the BSC gets even 3 teams is if whoever wins between Sac St and EWU this week runs the table. If you finish with 6 D-I wins, they'll be on the outside looking in.xcoffeex

That said, if both MT teams win out, the Brawl of the Wild will be for the AQ (and likely a seed) because if the Griz win, there will be co-champs at 7-1 and the Griz win the head-to-head tie-breaker. Man, I hope both teams win out 'til Nov. 19. WHAT A GAME THAT WILL BE!!!xnodx

[veinup]

That said, if both MT teams win out, the Brawl of the Wild will be for the AQ (and likely a seed) because if the Griz win, there will be co-champs at 7-1 and the Griz win the head-to-head tie-breaker. Man, I hope both teams win out 'til Nov. 19. WHAT A GAME THAT WILL BE!!!xnodx

this is what i am praying for. god damn that would be an amazing game. griz would certainly be the underdogs.. and i'd prefer that it be played in missoula (heh).. but, hey. i hope we get to do it for all the marbles. games that like are what this is ABOUT. so epic.

[MTfan4life]

Meh. I have a hard time putting any stock in someone who figures Sac St. beats EWU this week (the only way Sac St. can reach 7-4), then in the next sentence says, "And don't be surprised id (sic) the Eastern Washington/Cal Poly game on November 12th is a de-facto play-in game for both teams." I'd put money on it that the only way the BSC gets even 3 teams is if whoever wins between Sac St and EWU this week runs the table. If you finish with 6 D-I wins, they'll be on the outside looking in.xcoffeex

That said, if both MT teams win out, the Brawl of the Wild will be for the AQ (and likely a seed) because if the Griz win, there will be co-champs at 7-1 and the Griz win the head-to-head tie-breaker. Man, I hope both teams win out 'til Nov. 19. WHAT A GAME THAT WILL BE!!!xnodx

That article is rather fishy. He has Northern Iowa not just losing to NDSU, but also likely losing at least one other remaining game because he has them playing in the first round. They haven't shown any weakness throughout their schedule and almost knocked off Iowa State. Also he has Montana State playing that first weekend. They would have to drop two out of three to fall that low! How in the world would Montana State end up seeded lower than Sacramento State? This is some far-fetched predicting.

Also, MSUbobcat, Sac St. and EWU already played each other. Eastern won in overtime.

[MSUBobcat]

That article is rather fishy. He has Northern Iowa not just losing to NDSU, but also likely losing at least one other remaining game because he has them playing in the first round. They haven't shown any weakness throughout their schedule and almost knocked off Iowa State. Also he has Montana State playing that first weekend. They would have to drop two out of three to fall that low! How in the world would Montana State end up seeded lower than Sacramento State? This is some far-fetched predicting.

Also, MSUbobcat, Sac St. and EWU already played each other. Eastern won in overtime.

:o You are right. Disregard my reasoning. Not sure how I did that, as I already made my picks for the week and was even looking at their schedules on BSC's website. Only thing I can think of is that I was playing a tournament on Poker Stars and not giving my full attention. D'oh!! xbangx