SoCon analysis: halfway point in the season

[Reign of Terrier]

I'd say right now there are about 3 or 4 tiers to the SoCon.

1st Tier:
Wofford/GSU-GSU continues to impress on offense, I do think Wofford's defense is better but right now both teams are too close to call on both sides of the football. Special teams probably favors GSU and Wofford doesn't put the ball on the ground as much as GSU either.

2nd Tier:
Samford/Chattanooga/ASU-These teams can make the playoffs if they win out against FCS competition. ASU seemed to have a spark offensively with playcalling but continued to let The Citadel back in to the game with mistakes; ASU may be a playoff team this year but they aren't on the level they have been in years past. Chattanooga can beat anyone remaining on their schedule, and that's pretty much all that can be said. Samford can beat any team left on their schedule except Auburn and that's what they'll have to do. Their offense is improving, averaging about 35 points in the last 2 games and the defense is good enough to get the job done.

3rd Tier:
Furman/Elon/The Citadel- The problem is that these teams can't put it together for a full 60 minutes. Furman looks human when playing Socon competition. The Citadel is a tough team to figure; they keep losing, but they're in most of their games in the fourth quarter, the defense plays really well in some games and really poor in others while the offense is having a hard time putting it together in general. Elon is well.....I honestly can't say much about them besides what the box score tells me. They are playing on a pretty low level, it honestly wouldn't surprise me if they didn't win another SoCon game with App, Wofford, Furman, and Chattanooga left on the schedule.

4th Tier-Western-Offense is above average but that other unit they put on the field when the other team has the ball doesn't do much to stop the other team from scoring. They could beat the Citadel, but I wouldn't bank on it.

I'd rank them:
Wofford (homer pick)
GSU
Appalachian
Samford
Chattanooga
Furman
Elon
The Citadel
Western Carolina

[noogamoc]

i would put UTC ahead of Samford.

[Reign of Terrier]

i would put UTC ahead of Samford.

I wouldn't until they beat them

[noogamoc]

Good point...

[GSU_Alum08]

I agree with that list 100% except I honestly could not pick a number 1 between GSU and Wofford. The game between them will honestly be a coin flip, and if they meet in the playoffs, whoever won the first match-up, will probably lose the 2nd match-up..... I would put my money on either 1 of these teams winning the NC, especially since they will probably be seeded 1 and 2.

[phoenix3]

Sadly, I disagree. I would have to put Elon in the 4th tier. I have said before and still feel that if we could stop the turnovers we could be in the top tier. But, with 6 more turnovers today, we are averaging over 4 TOs per game. There is absolutely no sign that we are trying to change this or that we could even if we tried.

[Squealofthepig]

I still find it interesting that, if GSU can get by Wofford, there's a chance the #1 teams in FBS and FCS will play when GSU goes to Alabama. (A lot of football to play, but an interesting possibility).

[Mr. C]

I still find it interesting that, if GSU can get by Wofford, there's a chance the #1 teams in FBS and FCS will play when GSU goes to Alabama. (A lot of football to play, but an interesting possibility).

It has happened in various forms before. LSU played Western Illinois when WIU was No. 1 and LSU was on its way to the BCS title in 2003, and LSU and ASU were the defending BCS and FCS champions when they opened the season against each other in 2008. There may be other examples, too.

[GSC75]

After watching GSU play - I truly believe that if we meet Wofford 100% healthy - we'll have the edge... so far there has been injury issues with all our key players at one time or the other. One of the most dangerous players on our team is playing with a broken hand. Still carrying the ball and catching passes - but need him to be completely healed to take on Wofford.

[ElonPride]

Sadly, I disagree. I would have to put Elon in the 4th tier. I have said before and still feel that if we could stop the turnovers we could be in the top tier. But, with 6 more turnovers today, we are averaging over 4 TOs per game. There is absolutely no sign that we are trying to change this or that we could even if we tried.

I would also put us in the 4th tier. I like Sweps as our HC, but man, if he's not looking for a new OC by now something's wrong.

Smith or Quinn need a shot at QB. Wilson has a strong arm, but just doesn't make sound decisions.

1854 yards passing - good
13 TD passes - decent
15 INTs - horrid! (4 yesterday)

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

So here is what the playoff picture looks like....
I will go out on a limb and say any SoCon team that gets at least 7 DI wins will get in.

1. Wofford only needs 3 more wins to get to 7. Still not quite as safe of a bet as GSU IMO.
2. GSU needs only 2 more wins to get to 8. Remaining FCS games are Presbyterian, The Citadel, @ App. State, and @ Wofford. We will have to outchoke the Red Sox to not make it at this point.
3. App. State has an all-DI schedule and is 3 losses from elimination. Has GSU and Samford at home. App. State got to play 3 of their top 4 SoCon opponents at home. Not bad.
4. Samford has 2 losses, a sub-DI game, and still has yet to play Auburn, which means they almost certainly need to win out to get in. The good news is if they can somehow beat App. State in Boone the last major hurdle to a playoff bid will be Chatty.
5. Chatty has an all-DI schedule, but still needs to win out to get to 7 wins. They play Samford in Birmingham and Wofford at home. The good news is: only 4 games left.

These are the remaining games that will determine the playoff picture. All of this is assuming teams from the bottom four don't beat anyone from these 5, which we know is not any guarantee by any means.

This week...
Samford @ App. State

October 29
Georgia Southern @ App. State

November 5
Samford @ Chattanooga

November 12
Georgia Southern @ Wofford

November 19
Wofford @ Chattanooga

So assuming there are no more wins of the bottom 4 over the top 5 (which like I said is not a sure thing) there are 32 possible scenarios created by these 5 games. And there are only 2 that result in the SoCon having more than 3 teams with 7 DI wins. Too bad. The SoCon has at least 4 playoff-caliber teams

[Eaglesrus]

So here is what the playoff picture looks like....
I will go out on a limb and say any SoCon team that gets at least 7 DI wins will get in................................................ .................................................. ...................................

2. GSU needs only 2 more wins to get to 8. Remaining FCS games are Presbyterian, The Citadel, @ App. State, and @ Wofford. We will have to outchoke the Red Sox to not make it at this point............................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .........................................

These are the remaining games that will determine the playoff picture. All of this is assuming teams from the bottom four don't beat anyone from these 5, which we know is not any guarantee by any means............................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................

So assuming there are no more wins of the bottom 4 over the top 5 (which like I said is not a sure thing) there are 32 possible scenarios created by these 5 games. And there are only 2 that result in the SoCon having more than 3 teams with 7 DI wins. Too bad. The SoCon has at least 4 playoff-caliber teams

While this is all true I think it's important to note that though 2 more wins gets us to 8 total, we also have to have those 2 to get us to 7 D-Is. Yes, I'm still having a hard time getting over the fact that we played Tusculum.

[Apphole]

While this is all true I think it's important to note that though 2 more wins gets us to 8 total, we also have to have those 2 to get us to 7 D-Is. Yes, I'm still having a hard time getting over the fact that we played Tusculum.
No one in this conference should feel bad about playing any school when Wofford played VA-Wise. There should be an NCAA rule against it.

[BlackNGoldR3v0lut10n]

I know three SoCon teams will make the cut: Wofford, Georgia Southern and Appalachian. I can see a fourth team getting there but one more loss in the case of three teams will eliminate them.

[OL FU]

I'd say right now there are about 3 or 4 tiers to the SoCon.

1st Tier:
Wofford/GSU-GSU continues to impress on offense, I do think Wofford's defense is better but right now both teams are too close to call on both sides of the football. Special teams probably favors GSU and Wofford doesn't put the ball on the ground as much as GSU either.

2nd Tier:
Samford/Chattanooga/ASU-These teams can make the playoffs if they win out against FCS competition. ASU seemed to have a spark offensively with playcalling but continued to let The Citadel back in to the game with mistakes; ASU may be a playoff team this year but they aren't on the level they have been in years past. Chattanooga can beat anyone remaining on their schedule, and that's pretty much all that can be said. Samford can beat any team left on their schedule except Auburn and that's what they'll have to do. Their offense is improving, averaging about 35 points in the last 2 games and the defense is good enough to get the job done.

3rd Tier:
Furman/Elon/The Citadel- The problem is that these teams can't put it together for a full 60 minutes. Furman looks human when playing Socon competition. The Citadel is a tough team to figure; they keep losing, but they're in most of their games in the fourth quarter, the defense plays really well in some games and really poor in others while the offense is having a hard time putting it together in general. Elon is well.....I honestly can't say much about them besides what the box score tells me. They are playing on a pretty low level, it honestly wouldn't surprise me if they didn't win another SoCon game with App, Wofford, Furman, and Chattanooga left on the schedule.

4th Tier-Western-Offense is above average but that other unit they put on the field when the other team has the ball doesn't do much to stop the other team from scoring. They could beat the Citadel, but I wouldn't bank on it.

I'd rank them:
Wofford (homer pick)
GSU
Appalachian
Samford
Chattanooga
Furman
Elon
The Citadel
Western Carolina

I agree somewhat. I don't think there is a question that GSU and WC stand alone at the top and Western sits alone at the bottom. I do think there is a question as to whether there is a just a third or a third and fourth tier. While certainly, their are differences within the group, it may be looking like 3 through 8 may be close enough to be one group.