carney2
February 5th, 2011, 01:45 PM
Here we go again. Hopefully, each year gets a little better, whatever that means. For newcomers, and those who have forgotten (which would be all of you), the Committee feels obligated to explain the rules. This long-winded explanation is appended to this, the first, ratings of the year, and will not be repeated. The actual ratings for the first team to announce are included as the third post of this thread.
There are three changes in methodology from 2010:
1. The ESPN online recruiting ratings have been added to Rivals and Scout. With three services now included, the Committee anticipates that overall ratings will be slightly higher than in previous years when only two were used. This will, of course, make year-to-year comparisons a little more difficult.
2. “Confirmation” (receiving equal – and they must be equal – star ratings – and they must be stars, not merely Rated - from multiple recruiting services) will be deemed to have been accomplished if two of the three services agree.
3. Tight end has been eliminated from the Distribution evaluation. Frankly, the position is limping toward dinosaur status and many teams no longer use or recruit one. Total available Distribution points will therefore be reduced from 9 to 8.
A (large) number of you say that this exercise is bogus and that we won’t know about these recruits until we’ve seen them play and have a career. Who can argue with that logic? Still, the Committee has three things to say in that regard:
1. In a presidential election, some folks say that polling is ridiculous. Their logic is “we’ll know who won after it’s over.” Still, the polling continues, and the vast majority of Americans get caught up in it.
2. The Committee invites the folks with this argument to create a system that rates a team’s seniors after they have played their last game. It would be interesting and would create some controversy. It would not however, address the question in the here and now as to how the team’s recruiting is going and what we might expect in the future.
3. The Committee readily admits that its methodology is flawed. It could, in fact, compose a treatise as long as this post detailing the problems. It invites someone – anyone – to come up with something better. Please!
Oh yeah, one more thing, don’t take any of this too seriously. It’s a last stab at some football FUN before we continue the long off-season doldrums.
The Patsy Ratings
(Patriot League Football Recruiting)
METHODOLGY
QUALITY: The Committee wouldn’t know a “quality” high school recruit if they tripped over him while he was wearing a name tag. They therefore have chosen to consult the “experts.” Every recruit is run thru Rivals.com, Scout.com, and ESPN who maintain data bases for football recruits. None are perfect and there are “holes” in all of the data bases. The theory is that the recruiting services keep track of kids who have established a recruiting persona - in other words those recruits with multiple suitors. To put it another way, if (almost) no one else wanted this recruit, can he truly be labeled as “quality?”
Each of the data bases uses a “star” system to rate recruits. Beyond that, they separate the better recruits and rate them with a star system. Five stars is the highest rating and denotes recruits you will eventually find on the rosters at big time FBS schools. Patriot League schools will get many players with one star ratings and an occasional two star recruit, seldom more. Scout simply uses the 5-star system and does not list recruits who generated interest but who do not merit a star.
One Patsy Point is awarded for each recruit included in any of the data base, but who did not receive any stars. Two additional points are awarded for each star in a recruit’s rating. In other words, a Rivals one-star recruit earns 3 points (1 for being in the data base + 2 more for the star) for his chosen school. If there is a difference between the recruiting service ratings, the higher rating is used to assign Patsy Points. The term “rated” refers to any recruit who was included in any of the data bases.
One additional Patsy Point is awarded to each recruit who is “confirmed.” It is rare that a recruit gets an equal (starred) rating by each of the recruiting services. When this happens, the Committee deems that the recruit has not gotten “lucky” or otherwise “snuck by one of the recruiting service’s screening systems, but has been independently confirmed in his quality ranking. The point is awarded for “confirmation” by two of the three services.
(NOTE – There are other recruiting systems. The committee was either unable to find access, too lazy, and/or too cheap to pay for them.)
CLASS SIZE: Football is a physical game; a game of attrition. In addition, not all of these recruits are going to be up to the challenge of playing D-I football in a demanding academic environment. Some will get homesick, or will dislike their roommate or position coach, or their girlfriend back home will call to say that she’s pregnant. Males in this age group are among the most unpredictable and irrational creatures on the planet. In any event, quantity is, in many respects, almost as important as quality in the Patriot League recruiting process. Unlike many of the large state universities that have become FCS powerhouses, the Patriot League does not make a living off FBS transfers. The overwhelming majority of the League’s key performers are high school recruits that have never attended another college.
It is arbitrary we admit, but the Committee has determined that a bare subsistence recruiting class should number 18. If you multiply this number by 4 years you get 72, which gives you three deep plus some leftovers for kickers, kick returners, “athletes,” etc. Most Patriot League preseason rosters number in the 90+ range, so this should not be a problem. We awarded 2 Patsy Points for reaching a class size of 18 and awarded an additional point for every three recruits above that number. For example, a recruiting class of 23 would yield 4 Patsy Points for that school – 2 for reaching 18 + 1 more for numbers 19 thru 21 + 1 more for numbers 22 and 23. There is, therefore, no difference between 22 and 23 – the point is awarded either way.
(CONTINUED IN THE SECOND POST OF THIS THREAD)
There are three changes in methodology from 2010:
1. The ESPN online recruiting ratings have been added to Rivals and Scout. With three services now included, the Committee anticipates that overall ratings will be slightly higher than in previous years when only two were used. This will, of course, make year-to-year comparisons a little more difficult.
2. “Confirmation” (receiving equal – and they must be equal – star ratings – and they must be stars, not merely Rated - from multiple recruiting services) will be deemed to have been accomplished if two of the three services agree.
3. Tight end has been eliminated from the Distribution evaluation. Frankly, the position is limping toward dinosaur status and many teams no longer use or recruit one. Total available Distribution points will therefore be reduced from 9 to 8.
A (large) number of you say that this exercise is bogus and that we won’t know about these recruits until we’ve seen them play and have a career. Who can argue with that logic? Still, the Committee has three things to say in that regard:
1. In a presidential election, some folks say that polling is ridiculous. Their logic is “we’ll know who won after it’s over.” Still, the polling continues, and the vast majority of Americans get caught up in it.
2. The Committee invites the folks with this argument to create a system that rates a team’s seniors after they have played their last game. It would be interesting and would create some controversy. It would not however, address the question in the here and now as to how the team’s recruiting is going and what we might expect in the future.
3. The Committee readily admits that its methodology is flawed. It could, in fact, compose a treatise as long as this post detailing the problems. It invites someone – anyone – to come up with something better. Please!
Oh yeah, one more thing, don’t take any of this too seriously. It’s a last stab at some football FUN before we continue the long off-season doldrums.
The Patsy Ratings
(Patriot League Football Recruiting)
METHODOLGY
QUALITY: The Committee wouldn’t know a “quality” high school recruit if they tripped over him while he was wearing a name tag. They therefore have chosen to consult the “experts.” Every recruit is run thru Rivals.com, Scout.com, and ESPN who maintain data bases for football recruits. None are perfect and there are “holes” in all of the data bases. The theory is that the recruiting services keep track of kids who have established a recruiting persona - in other words those recruits with multiple suitors. To put it another way, if (almost) no one else wanted this recruit, can he truly be labeled as “quality?”
Each of the data bases uses a “star” system to rate recruits. Beyond that, they separate the better recruits and rate them with a star system. Five stars is the highest rating and denotes recruits you will eventually find on the rosters at big time FBS schools. Patriot League schools will get many players with one star ratings and an occasional two star recruit, seldom more. Scout simply uses the 5-star system and does not list recruits who generated interest but who do not merit a star.
One Patsy Point is awarded for each recruit included in any of the data base, but who did not receive any stars. Two additional points are awarded for each star in a recruit’s rating. In other words, a Rivals one-star recruit earns 3 points (1 for being in the data base + 2 more for the star) for his chosen school. If there is a difference between the recruiting service ratings, the higher rating is used to assign Patsy Points. The term “rated” refers to any recruit who was included in any of the data bases.
One additional Patsy Point is awarded to each recruit who is “confirmed.” It is rare that a recruit gets an equal (starred) rating by each of the recruiting services. When this happens, the Committee deems that the recruit has not gotten “lucky” or otherwise “snuck by one of the recruiting service’s screening systems, but has been independently confirmed in his quality ranking. The point is awarded for “confirmation” by two of the three services.
(NOTE – There are other recruiting systems. The committee was either unable to find access, too lazy, and/or too cheap to pay for them.)
CLASS SIZE: Football is a physical game; a game of attrition. In addition, not all of these recruits are going to be up to the challenge of playing D-I football in a demanding academic environment. Some will get homesick, or will dislike their roommate or position coach, or their girlfriend back home will call to say that she’s pregnant. Males in this age group are among the most unpredictable and irrational creatures on the planet. In any event, quantity is, in many respects, almost as important as quality in the Patriot League recruiting process. Unlike many of the large state universities that have become FCS powerhouses, the Patriot League does not make a living off FBS transfers. The overwhelming majority of the League’s key performers are high school recruits that have never attended another college.
It is arbitrary we admit, but the Committee has determined that a bare subsistence recruiting class should number 18. If you multiply this number by 4 years you get 72, which gives you three deep plus some leftovers for kickers, kick returners, “athletes,” etc. Most Patriot League preseason rosters number in the 90+ range, so this should not be a problem. We awarded 2 Patsy Points for reaching a class size of 18 and awarded an additional point for every three recruits above that number. For example, a recruiting class of 23 would yield 4 Patsy Points for that school – 2 for reaching 18 + 1 more for numbers 19 thru 21 + 1 more for numbers 22 and 23. There is, therefore, no difference between 22 and 23 – the point is awarded either way.
(CONTINUED IN THE SECOND POST OF THIS THREAD)