Start of August - Playoff Prognostications

[TexasTerror]

It has been about a month since we last visited the subject of playoff prognostications, so let's try it again based on feedback I have received, information on transfers and other relevant things that have come about.

This will be the final prognostication before the start of the season, when we'll do our weekly discussion and breakdown.

And criticize me all you want, but it sure is fun to take a stab at this thing and I'd encourage you guys to try as well! xnodx

PREVIOUS PROGNOSTICATIONS
Memorial Day Playoff Prognostications (http://anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?t=69543)
End of June Playoff Prognostications (http://anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?69953-End-of-June-Playoff-Prognostications)

CHANGES FROM LAST PROGNOSTICATION
New AQ: Jacksonville State
Out as AQ: Eastern Illinois

IN: Furman
OUT: Southeastern Louisiana

AUTOMATIC BIDS (10)
Big Sky: Montana
Big South: Liberty
Colonial: Villanova
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: South Dakota State
Northeast: Central Connecticut State
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Lafayette
SoCon: Appalachian State
Southland: Stephen F. Austin

AT-LARGE BIDS (10)

Big Sky: Eastern Washington
Colonial: William & Mary, New Hampshire, Richmond
Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa
Ohio Valley: Eastern Illinois
Southern: Elon, Furman
Southland: McNeese State

OPENING ROUND GAMES
Jacksonville State @ Furman
Lafayette @ Richmond
CCSU @ Eastern Illinois
Liberty @ South Carolina State

SECOND ROUND GAMES

Lafayette/Richmond winner @ #1 Villanova
Eastern Washington @ Northern Iowa

Liberty/SCST winner @ #4 Appalachian State
Elon @ William & Mary

CCSU/EIU winner @ #3 Southern Illinois
New Hampshire @ Stephen F Austin

McNeese State @ South Dakota State
Furman/JaxState winner @ #2 Montana[/QUOTE]

ON THE BUBBLE

Florida A&M (MEAC) - FAMU could be 9-2 at season's end. The losses are likely to FBS Miami (Fla.) and the MEAC Champion. If they have another hiccup, 8-3 would put them at OUT. A 9-2 record could be the red carpet the Rattlers need especially if there are plenty of unimpressive 7-4 teams to choose from. An unimpressive 9-2 would be better.

Samford (Southern) - Picked fourth in the SoCon, the Bulldogs first four games should tell us a lot. They head to Florida State (FBS) in a game that is a likely loss. They must beat Northwestern State on the road and Div II Newberry to set the stage for a Family Weekend showdown at home against Appalachian State. Appy, at Elon and home vs Furman are 3 of 4 conference games to start the year. Wins in 2 of 3 could set the Bulldogs up for a playoff run down the stretch.

Southeastern Louisiana (SLC) - I'm pulling for the Lions, but as we get closer to the season, it is hard to overlook the difficulty of their non-conference slate. They have two FBS games - ULM and Tulane. Both are winnable, but they need to win one of them to really change the face of their season. SLU could win their way in with wins in the last two games - at SFA and at Nicholls. Both teams beat them in meaningful games last year.

Stony Brook (Big South) - I do not believe an 8-3 record (one sub-Div I win) will get them in. A 9-2 record with losses to FBS South Florida and Big South champion Liberty would. This would mean OOC wins vs UMass and on the road at Lafayette. They could be the first to receive a 'boost' from the extended at-large process.

[Go...gate]

Looks pretty good, but I don't think Lafayette is hands-down to win the Patriot. HC, LU, LC and Colgate all have a shot.

[busybee14]

Looks pretty good, but I don't think Lafayette is hands-down to win the Patriot. HC, LU, LC and Colgate all have a shot.

I agre its going to be colgate.

[TexasTerror]

Looks pretty good, but I don't think Lafayette is hands-down to win the Patriot. HC, LU, LC and Colgate all have a shot.

I do not think Lafayette is the hands-down winner of the Patriot. It's going to be a toss-up between 2-4 teams, they are just who I have slotted at this point.

Media Day on Tuesday - is Holy Cross going to be the favorite? selected by the coaches Losing a starting QB to graduation hurts. Isn't their top returning QB only have two pass attempts to his name?

[TexasTerror]

I agre its going to be colgate.

Colgate has a very intriguing OOC.

Monmouth at home, which needs to be won. At Syracuse and at Furman to follow. Those will not be games in which the Raiders will be favored. Only four games period though they include Holy Cross and Lafayette, which may end up being a good thing. Three of four games on the road to end the slate.

If they win the PL this year, it'll be because they went out on the road and took care of business!

[TheValleyRaider]

Media Day on Tuesday - is Holy Cross going to be the favorite? selected by the coaches Losing a starting QB to graduation hurts. Isn't their top returning QB only have two pass attempts to his name?

Probably not, for the reasons you've just stated. From the sound of it, Colgate will likely earn the kiss of death as the early favorite, but all the contenders have questions


If they win the PL this year, it'll be because they went out on the road and took care of business!

That's how we roll xthumbsupx

[Keeper]

My numbers say (no particular order):

AQ's….
Big Sky=Montana
Big South=Liberty
Colonial=Wm & Mary
MEAC=SC State
MVC=S Dakota St
NEC=Robert Morris
OVC=Jax State
Patriot=Lehigh
Southern=App St
Southland=McNeese

At Large….
Eastern Wash
Northern Ariz
Villanova
Delaware
South Dakota
Illinois St
Northern Iowa
Elon
SF Austin
Texas State

(ready, set, fire one torpedo......)

[Tribe4SF]

My numbers say (no particular order):

AQ's….
Big Sky=Montana
Big South=Liberty
Colonial=Wm & Mary
MEAC=SC State
MVC=S Dakota St
NEC=Robert Morris
OVC=Jax State
Patriot=Lehigh
Southern=App St
Southland=McNeese

At Large….
Eastern Wash
Northern Ariz
Villanova
Delaware
South Dakota
Illinois St
Northern Iowa
Elon
SF Austin
Texas State

(ready, set, fire one torpedo......)

No SIU? Two at-large from the Southland? Only two at-large from the CAA?

The world turned upside down!

[Keeper]

AQ's….
Big Sky=Montana
Big South=Liberty
Colonial=Wm & Mary
MEAC=SC State
MVC=S Dakota St
NEC=Robert Morris
OVC=Jax State
Patriot=Lehigh
Southern=App St
Southland=McNeese

At Large….
Eastern Wash
Northern Ariz
Villanova
Delaware
Fordham
Illinois St
Northern Iowa
Elon
SF Austin
Texas State

(correction, U So Dak of course not eligible)

[darell1976]

AQ's….
Big Sky=Montana
Big South=Liberty
Colonial=Wm & Mary
MEAC=SC State
MVC=S Dakota St
NEC=Robert Morris
OVC=Jax State
Patriot=Lehigh
Southern=App St
Southland=McNeese

At Large….
Eastern Wash
Northern Ariz
Villanova
Delaware
Fordham
Illinois St
Northern Iowa
Elon
SF Austin
Texas State

(correction, U So Dak of course not eligible)

And won't be for quite a while. xsmiley_wix

[Jacked_Rabbit]

And won't be for quite a while. xsmiley_wix

... And they aren't a playoff team even if they were eligible. Don't assume they are good only because they have "South Dakota" in the title! haha

[slostang]

If Cal Poly can get through a brutal five straight games on the road, I would not want to be a team that has to face them in the openning round. Cal Poly returns 9 starters on offense and adds West Virginia transfer Mark Rodgers to the backfield. They return 8 starters on defense. I would not over look them this season.

[RabidRabbit]

And won't be for quite a while. xsmiley_wix

Just as soon as UND is eligible....

[RabidRabbit]

If Cal Poly can get through a brutal five straight games on the road, I would not want to be a team that has to face them in the openning round. Cal Poly returns 9 starters on offense and adds West Virginia transfer Mark Rodgers to the backfield. They return 8 starters on defense. I would not over look them this season.


Like every year. CP has a top-notch bunch of opponents lined up. Stangs need to go no worst than 2-3 on the starting road swing, and cannot afford a stumble in the Great West this year. If Cal Poly knocks off and FBS this season, WATCH OUT!.

[unialum95]

SIU has to be in there. Unless you are going to be generous to the MVFC, SIU has to bump out UNI or Illinios State in the preseason.

[RabidRabbit]

I'll be surprised if SIU isn't the MVFC AQ again this year. Although play IL St, UNI and SDSU for the first three weekends of Oct. The top four MVFC picks play each other by mid Oct. Either they beat up on one another, and open the door for a Youngstown or Mo St to jump into the title race, or someone will have it sewn up by the middle of Oct.

[Jacked_Rabbit]

SIU has to be in there. Unless you are going to be generous to the MVFC, SIU has to bump out UNI or Illinios State in the preseason.

Agreed, SIU has to be penciled in as the AQ for the MVFC. SDSU, UNI, & Ill. St. fight for the at-large bid.

[elon77]

If Cal Poly can get through a brutal five straight games on the road, I would not want to be a team that has to face them in the openning round. Cal Poly returns 9 starters on offense and adds West Virginia transfer Mark Rodgers to the backfield. They return 8 starters on defense. I would not over look them this season.

They will have their hands full at ODU. Wait and see. Why did they take that game anyway?

[DFW HOYA]

AUTOMATIC BIDS (10)
Big Sky: Montana
Big South: Liberty
Colonial: Villanova
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: South Dakota State
Northeast: Central Connecticut State
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Lafayette
SoCon: Appalachian State
Southland: Stephen F. Austin

AT-LARGE BIDS (10)

Big Sky: Eastern Washington
Colonial: William & Mary, New Hampshire, Richmond
Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa
Ohio Valley: Eastern Illinois
Southern: Elon, Furman
Southland: McNeese State

OPENING ROUND GAMES
Jacksonville State @ Furman
Lafayette @ Richmond
Robert Morris @ Eastern Illinois
Liberty @ South Carolina State

SECOND ROUND GAMES

Lafayette/Richmond winner @ #1 Villanova
Eastern Washington @ Northern Iowa

Liberty/SCST winner @ #4 Appalachian State
Elon @ William & Mary

RMU/EIU winner @ #3 Southern Illinois
New Hampshire @ Stephen F Austin

McNeese State @ South Dakota State
Furman/JaxState winner @ #2 Montana

Who does Central Connecticut open with?

[TexasTerror]

Who does Central Connecticut open with?

Eastern Illinois.

[R3TRO]

Eastern Illinois.

UNH

[aggiemba]

Any playoff scenario without UC Davis in it is purely poppycock. xnodx

[OL FU]

It has been about a month since we last visited the subject of playoff prognostications, so let's try it again based on feedback I have received, information on transfers and other relevant things that have come about.

This will be the final prognostication before the start of the season, when we'll do our weekly discussion and breakdown.

And criticize me all you want, but it sure is fun to take a stab at this thing and I'd encourage you guys to try as well! xnodx

PREVIOUS PROGNOSTICATIONS
Memorial Day Playoff Prognostications (http://anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?t=69543)
End of June Playoff Prognostications (http://anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?69953-End-of-June-Playoff-Prognostications)

CHANGES FROM LAST PROGNOSTICATION
New AQ: Jacksonville State
Out as AQ: Eastern Illinois

IN: Furman
OUT: Southeastern Louisiana

AUTOMATIC BIDS (10)
Big Sky: Montana
Big South: Liberty
Colonial: Villanova
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: South Dakota State
Northeast: Central Connecticut State
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Lafayette
SoCon: Appalachian State
Southland: Stephen F. Austin

AT-LARGE BIDS (10)

Big Sky: Eastern Washington
Colonial: William & Mary, New Hampshire, Richmond
Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa
Ohio Valley: Eastern Illinois
Southern: Elon, Furman
Southland: McNeese State

OPENING ROUND GAMES
Jacksonville State @ Furman
Lafayette @ Richmond
CCSU @ Eastern Illinois
Liberty @ South Carolina State

SECOND ROUND GAMES

Lafayette/Richmond winner @ #1 Villanova
Eastern Washington @ Northern Iowa

Liberty/SCST winner @ #4 Appalachian State
Elon @ William & Mary

CCSU/EIU winner @ #3 Southern Illinois
New Hampshire @ Stephen F Austin

McNeese State @ South Dakota State
Furman/JaxState winner @ #2 Montana

ON THE BUBBLE

Florida A&M (MEAC) - FAMU could be 9-2 at season's end. The losses are likely to FBS Miami (Fla.) and the MEAC Champion. If they have another hiccup, 8-3 would put them at OUT. A 9-2 record could be the red carpet the Rattlers need especially if there are plenty of unimpressive 7-4 teams to choose from. An unimpressive 9-2 would be better.

Samford (Southern) - Picked fourth in the SoCon, the Bulldogs first four games should tell us a lot. They head to Florida State (FBS) in a game that is a likely loss. They must beat Northwestern State on the road and Div II Newberry to set the stage for a Family Weekend showdown at home against Appalachian State. Appy, at Elon and home vs Furman are 3 of 4 conference games to start the year. Wins in 2 of 3 could set the Bulldogs up for a playoff run down the stretch.

Southeastern Louisiana (SLC) - I'm pulling for the Lions, but as we get closer to the season, it is hard to overlook the difficulty of their non-conference slate. They have two FBS games - ULM and Tulane. Both are winnable, but they need to win one of them to really change the face of their season. SLU could win their way in with wins in the last two games - at SFA and at Nicholls. Both teams beat them in meaningful games last year.

Stony Brook (Big South) - I do not believe an 8-3 record (one sub-Div I win) will get them in. A 9-2 record with losses to FBS South Florida and Big South champion Liberty would. This would mean OOC wins vs UMass and on the road at Lafayette. They could be the first to receive a 'boost' from the extended at-large process.[/QUOTE]

I like that you have us in but I don't like playing Jacksonville State. 3-0 against them says they would be more than a little fired up;)

[UNHFootballAlum]

Who does Central Connecticut open with?

They open at UNH. Tough opener

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

Elon is going to have a very difficult time making the playoffs. You have games at Duke, at Richmond, at App. State, and at GSU (scoff if you want, but even in the slump GSU has been tough to beat at home when we still have something to play for). That, plus a sub-DI game means it will be tough to get to 7 DI wins.

[IaaScribe]

If Liberty is in that first-round game, I doubt there's anyone who will outbid the Flames for a home game.

[jstclmet]

If Liberty is in that first-round game, I doubt there's anyone who will outbid the Flames for a home game.

Except maybe JMU (can you say rematch), UR, W&M, UD should one of these CAA teams not be ranked in the top 5. There's also ELON to consider. LU would probably hope for a MEAC first round opponent who is in close proximity.

I think SBU and one of the PL teams would be a good first round matchup. Anyone knows what happens to Fordham if they have the best record in the PL?? Do the PL get to send their 1st place team and Fordham??

Can't wait for September.

[JaxSinfonian]

I like that you have us in but I don't like playing Jacksonville State. 3-0 against them says they would be more than a little fired up;)

We were fired up enough the last two games, don't you think? One more try ought to be enough to finally pull it off, I'll bet. I like the pick, but I don't like the thought of going to Montana in week 2. I'd probably have to wear all my clothes to the game (as in, all the clothes I own).

[JMUNJ08]

Except maybe JMU (can you say rematch), UR, W&M, UD should one of these CAA teams not be ranked in the top 5. There's also ELON to consider. LU would probably hope for a MEAC first round opponent who is in close proximity.

I think SBU and one of the PL teams would be a good first round matchup. Anyone knows what happens to Fordham if they have the best record in the PL?? Do the PL get to send their 1st place team and Fordham??

Can't wait for September.

Thanks for the helping rep the CAA and JMU! No one is talking about us after a brutal 4 game stretch last year that everyone remembers. However, we did win the last 4 against decent competition and have Dudzik back at QB. JMU should be in the mix in that top 4/6 teams in the CAA. Nova I believe is the only one you can put into a lock for the playoffs status right now. The rest? Thats for us to keep guessing!

Sadly, due to our stadium construction, a Liberty rematch would be @ Liberty and would be 2nd round since we play in the regular season...

[jlandrus23]

What happens if Indiana State surprises the nation and wins the MVFC?

[NHwildEcat]

My numbers say (no particular order):

AQ's….
Big Sky=Montana
Big South=Liberty
Colonial=Wm & Mary
MEAC=SC State
MVC=S Dakota St
NEC=Robert Morris
OVC=Jax State
Patriot=Lehigh
Southern=App St
Southland=McNeese

At Large….
Eastern Wash
Northern Ariz
Villanova
Delaware
South Dakota
Illinois St
Northern Iowa
Elon
SF Austin
Texas State

(ready, set, fire one torpedo......)

No offense meant here...but no UNH as an at-large? You need to open your eyes man! Even if those three make it in, UNH will still make it esp. with the expanded playoff field!

[Screamin_Eagle174]

What happens if Indiana State surprises the nation and wins the MVFC?

xlolxxlolx That's a good one!

[TexasTerror]

No offense meant here...but no UNH as an at-large? You need to open your eyes man! Even if those three make it in, UNH will still make it esp. with the expanded playoff field!

Pretty certain that Keeper has a ratings system based on returning production and that his projections are no reflection of his personal thoughts on the subject matter.

[NHwildEcat]

Pretty certain that Keeper has a ratings system based on returning production and that his projections are no reflection of his personal thoughts on the subject matter.

I was unaware of that...still couldn't disagree more though :)

[jmufan999]

Sadly, due to our stadium construction, a Liberty rematch would be @ Liberty and would be 2nd round since we play in the regular season...

i didn't think there was anything saying a playoff team can't have a first round rematch... only that they couldn't play a conference opponent in the first round. seems like it would be way too convenient for the committee to send us to Liberty if we both made it. they like convenience.

[bluehenbillk]

I doubt Richmond will even have a winning record much less make the playoffs, way too many holes to fill. New QB behind 4 new OL equals trouble.

[jstclmet]

I doubt Richmond will even have a winning record much less make the playoffs, way too many holes to fill. New QB behind 4 new OL equals trouble.

While I do agree with you re: w/l record and playoff possibility, no one expected ML to do what he did in his first year either. In fact there was an expectation that the Spiders would fall after Clawson left, much like the same expectation now. So, it's not too far fetched that LS could do something great in his first year. However unlike ML, I don't think LS would bolt after 2 years.

[danefan]

Except maybe JMU (can you say rematch), UR, W&M, UD should one of these CAA teams not be ranked in the top 5. There's also ELON to consider. LU would probably hope for a MEAC first round opponent who is in close proximity.

I think SBU and one of the PL teams would be a good first round matchup. Anyone knows what happens to Fordham if they have the best record in the PL?? Do the PL get to send their 1st place team and Fordham??

Can't wait for September.
Fordham is not a Patriot League team anymore. They merely have a scheduling arrangement with the Patriot League.

So you can't think of them even as having the "best record in the PL." They're an Indy in the eyes of the playoff committee and they'll have to get an at-large.

Looking at their schedule I doubt that's possible:

Sept. 4 at Bryant University
Sept. 11 UNIVERSITY OF RHODE ISLAND
Sept. 18 at Columbia University
Sept. 25 ASSUMPTION COLLEGE
Oct. 2 at Holy Cross
Oct. 9 at Lehigh University
Oct. 16 at Yale University
Oct. 23 LAFAYETTE COLLEGE
Oct. 30 GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY
Nov. 6 at Bucknell University
Nov. 13 OPEN
Nov. 20 COLGATE UNIVERSITY

Throw out the Assumption game and they'll probably need to go 10-0 or 9-1 to get an at-large bid. Not sure they have the chops for that without Skelton. But it is possible that Fordham could still make the playoffs along with the winner of the PL.

[jstclmet]

Fordham is not a Patriot League team anymore. They merely have a scheduling arrangement with the Patriot League.

So you can't think of them even as having the "best record in the PL." They're an Indy in the eyes of the playoff committee and they'll have to get an at-large.

Looking at their schedule I doubt that's possible:

Sept. 4 at Bryant University
Sept. 11 UNIVERSITY OF RHODE ISLAND
Sept. 18 at Columbia University
Sept. 25 ASSUMPTION COLLEGE
Oct. 2 at Holy Cross
Oct. 9 at Lehigh University
Oct. 16 at Yale University
Oct. 23 LAFAYETTE COLLEGE
Oct. 30 GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY
Nov. 6 at Bucknell University
Nov. 13 OPEN
Nov. 20 COLGATE UNIVERSITY

Throw out the Assumption game and they'll probably need to go 10-0 or 9-1 to get an at-large bid. Not sure they have the chops for that without Skelton. But it is possible that Fordham could still make the playoffs along with the winner of the PL.

I knew they weren't in the PL anymore, I was just wondering if they swept the PL and secured 7 D1 wins, would the PL Champion get in over Fordham. This would pose an interesting Committee decision. Having to take the PL Champ might keep another more deserving team out of the playoffs.

[PhoenixPhan06]

Whats the seating capacity at Zable Stadium?

[UNH Fanboi]

I knew they weren't in the PL anymore, I was just wondering if they swept the PL and secured 7 D1 wins, would the PL Champion get in over Fordham. This would pose an interesting Committee decision. Having to take the PL Champ might keep another more deserving team out of the playoffs.

I don't think a Patriot sweep and 7 D1 wins would be enough for them, because that would mean that they went 1-3 against Bryant, URI, Columbia and Yale. I think they would need to sweep and go 9-1 or maybe 8-2 in D1. Their OOC schedule is just too weak to allow for many losses. Colgate couldn't even get in last year with 9 D1 wins. This discussion is highly theoretically anyway since they couldn't even beat URI last year and have lost Skelton.

[danefan]

I knew they weren't in the PL anymore, I was just wondering if they swept the PL and secured 7 D1 wins, would the PL Champion get in over Fordham. This would pose an interesting Committee decision. Having to take the PL Champ might keep another more deserving team out of the playoffs.

The PL champ is getting in regardless of what Fordham does. The Committee has no say in that. They've already got their AQ.

[LeadBolt]

Whats the seating capacity at Zable Stadium?

12,259, approximately the same number of negative votes you have sent our way...