Ball State Coming to Hancock in 2013!!!

[Redbird Ray]

http://www.goredbirds.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/111209aaa.html

Hopefully we will have a new east side of our stadium by then. Exciting news for us at ISU!

[Silenoz]

Now if only we could get some WAC teams to do that (again)

What is ISU's average attendance?

[Redbird Ray]

Now if only we could get some WAC teams to do that (again)

What is ISU's average attendance?

The last ten years or so we average between 10-12K. Our current capacity is listed at 15K, but about 3K of that is grass berm seating. I think if we had more legitimate seats, our attendance would be higher. There are thousands each game that prefer to keep tailgating over sitting on a grass hill.

[MSUBear42]

Wow, congrats to ISU!

[OSBF]

really just about simple economics

Ball State is just your typical cash strapped crappy MAC football program

They give us a return game and either eliminate or substantially reduce the payout they have to give us when we go there.

I'm sure they can bus from Muncie to Normal cheaper/easier than they can pay us the 250K or whatever the going rate is for these games.

[GannonFan]

Pretty cool - when was the last time a FBS-level team played at an FCS level team? It used to happen a lot, but it really died off a few years ago. Curious if anyone knows.

[bostonspider]

I am pretty sure Army will be playing at Yale in 2014 as well, to commemorate the 100th Anniversary of the Bowl...

[89Hen]

Pretty cool - when was the last time a FBS-level team played at an FCS level team? It used to happen a lot, but it really died off a few years ago. Curious if anyone knows.
I'm only guessing, but I think it may have been Idaho at Montana a few years ago. Griz fans? xeyebrowx

[Shellin]

Yeah, in 2003 Idaho played the Griz in Missoula.

[MaximumBobcat]

Very cool! Good luck and get the W!

[UNI Pike]

Big Ten specifically prohibits its members from playing FB at non FBS schools.

[MaximumBobcat]

Big Ten specifically prohibits its members from playing FB at non FBS schools.

Sunbelt too IIRC.

[Silenoz]

Sunbelt too IIRC.

Must be a pride thing

As in, a ploy to salvage what little pride they have xlolx

[OSBF]

Sunbelt too IIRC.

Then how do they play at each other's stadiums?

[MaximumBobcat]

Must be a pride thing

As in, a ploy to salvage what little pride they have xlolx




Then how do they play at each other's stadiums?

Meh. Haters can hate, but I'd certainly take the top half the Sunbelt over the top FCS teams in a straight up W/L bet.

[OSBF]

Meh. Haters can hate, but I'd certainly take the top half the Sunbelt over the top FCS teams in a straight up W/L bet.

i'd take that bet, SunJoke or MAC

[MaximumBobcat]

i'd take that bet, SunJoke or MAC

Ok, you schedule the games and call me when it's all done. :)

[OSBF]

Ok, you schedule the games and call me when it's all done. :)


Neither the SunJoke nor the MAC has the stones to schedule non-cons that difficult unless they're getting paid

[Big Al]

i'd take that bet, SunJoke or MAC

I'd take the top of the FCS over the Sunbelt. MAC it depends on the team and the year.

[txst80]

If the top FCS schools joined the Sunbelt next year, Troy would still win the conference. But the FCS schools would finish 2nd, 3rd, etc.

The only sunbelt team better than top FCS schools is Troy.

[MaximumBobcat]

Neither the SunJoke nor the MAC has the stones to schedule non-cons that difficult unless they're getting paid

Don't have the stones...have the brains...same thing.

same reason you don't see most the CAA schedule DII powerhouses...not much good can come out of it.

[putter]

I'm only guessing, but I think it may have been Idaho at Montana a few years ago. Griz fans? xeyebrowx

Yea, I think that is where Tom Cable got his temper. Watching his Vandals get slapped by 3 scores in Missoula is too much to take. He is having flashbacks xeekx

[aust42]

Big Ten specifically prohibits its members from playing FB at non FBS schools.

Obviously Big Ten Stadiums are 5 times the size of any FCS stadium and they sell out. MAC teams can make out financially by playing away games at come FCS stadiums. xlolx

[onbison09]

Then how do they play at each other's stadiums?

LMAO!! I go to UNT and it's so true.

[JohnStOnge]

If the top FCS schools joined the Sunbelt next year, Troy would still win the conference. But the FCS schools would finish 2nd, 3rd, etc.

The only sunbelt team better than top FCS schools is Troy.

I think that, like a lot of people, you overestimate Troy. Of course I think you're overestimating the entire Sun Belt.

For what it's worth: Right now the Sun Belt is rated higher by Sagarin's system than any FCS league...but just barely (59.14 vs. the Colonial's 58.32). But that's because the Colonial has more teams and some of them are very bad. Three CAA teams are rated higher than Troy.

Overall, Troy is rated behind 4 FCS teams. Most years they don't do that well. Same with Massey.

When you're evaluating Troy's performance, you need to go back to how bad the Sun Belt has been. Since the Trojans have been in the Sun Belt, they are 8-18 against non conference I-A/FBS competition. But two of the wins were over transitioning Western Kentucky before Western Kentucky began Sun Belt Play and another was over transitioning Florida Atlantic. By any reasonable measure that takes things in full context, Troy is a bad FBS program that fields bad FBS teams that are almost always within the range of calibers reflected by FCS teams. And the Sun Belt is a REALLY bad FBS league that most years is not as strong overall as the top league in FCS (usually the CAA).

[JohnStOnge]

Meh. Haters can hate, but I'd certainly take the top half the Sunbelt over the top FCS teams in a straight up W/L bet.

Now, I know that you will probably just dismiss Sagarin ratings but, just for fun, let's look at who the favorites would be for Top Half of the Sun Belt vs. the equal number of top FCS teams. Neutral fields.

Troy (70.41) vs. Villanova (76.13): Villanova by 5.72
Middle Tennessee (66.83) vs. Richmond (72.34): Richmond by 5.51
Louisiana Monroe (66.61) vs. William & Mary (71.78): William & Mary by 5.17
Arkansas State (59.32) vs. Southern Illlinois (71.66): Southern Illinois by 12.34
Florida Atlantic (57.76) vs. Montana (68.40): Montana by 10.64

Now, there's a lot of uncertainty there. But one can use the information at http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaresults.php to estimate the percentage of the time that a favorite by a given Sagrin margin wins. At the lowest point spread above, 5.17, the estimate is that the favorite wins about 62% of the time. If we do the first thing for each of the spreads above this is what we get (to the nearest percentage point):

At 5.17, favorites expected to win about 62% of the time
At 5.51, favorites expected to win about 63% of the time
At 5.72, favorites expected to win about 63% of the time
At 10.64, favorites expected to win about 74% of the time
At 12.34, favorites expected to win about 78% of the time

The series would never happen. But if it did, you'd be a fool to bet on the Sun Belt schools to win it.

Now, I know people like to criticize the models. But one thing we can objectively establish is that they are right a whole lot more often than they are wrong. Also, we can objectively establish that the larger the spreads are the more often they are right. If you spend a whole lot of time picking against all five Sagarin favorites in groups of five games, you're going to lose most of the time. By lose I mean you're going to get more than half the games wrong most of the time. And if you do it with spreads like 10 and 12 you're going to get killed. Yes, you will win sometimes. But you'll lose a WHOLE lot more often.

[EKUSteve]

Sunbelt too IIRC.

This rule killed the EKU/WKU series. They even would not let it continue by EKU playing the home leg at Papa Johns in Louisville.

[MaximumBobcat]

Now, I know that you will probably just dismiss Sagarin ratings but

Yep. I've got a lot more faith in Sags for teams within the same subdivision as there's more direct linkages that can be made between the teams. Interesting numbers though. I think I'd take all the SBC teams besides FAU and ASU in the matchups you posted above. Where'd you get ASU from anyways? They're down at the bottom of the SBC, maybe you meant UL-L?

Anyways, I like to stick my nose in these arguments here and there, but it's useless arguing over crap like this, so I'm off to go have dinner.

[txst80]

I think that, like a lot of people, you overestimate Troy. Of course I think you're overestimating the entire Sun Belt.

You could say I'm overestimating Troy but I did say the FCS schools are better than the rest of the Sunbelt. So I wouldn't say I'm overestimating the entire Sunbelt. You may have thought Max and I were the same person maybe?

[MaximumBobcat]

You could say I'm overestimating Troy but I did say the FCS schools are better than the rest of the Sunbelt. So I wouldn't say I'm overestimating the entire Sunbelt. You may have thought Max and I were the same person maybe?

No, I think he's saying that Troy wouldn't even be at the top of the SBC if the top FCS teams moved in. And over estimating the rest of the Sunbelt as that's the competition Troy has to face.

Anyways, I like to stick my nose in these arguments here and there, but it's useless arguing over crap like this, so I'm off to go have dinner.

[txst80]

No, I think he's saying that Troy wouldn't even bet at the top of the SBC if the top FCS teams moved in.

Yeah I know he thinks that. So he thinks I overestimated Troy which makes sense. Then he said I overestimate the whole Sunbelt. I guess that means by saying that they have one decent team is overestimating the entire conference? That must be it.

I think the top FCS schools would run through the Sunbelt pretty easy aside from Troy. Maybe Troy wouldn't win it, but I think Troy would be a top 10 FCS team for sure.

[JohnStOnge]

Yep. I've got a lot more faith in Sags for teams within the same subdivision as there's more direct linkages that can be made between the teams. Interesting numbers though. I think I'd take all the SBC teams besides FAU in the matchups you posted above.

And what objective basis do you have for that other than their being in FBS? Villanova beat Temple, which has been bad in the past but is 7-2 this year. Richmond beat Duke, another team with past problems but one that is 5-4 overall and 3-2 in the ACC this year. William & Mary beat Virginia. Not great but better than Louisiana Monroe. Southern Illinois did lose by 3 to Marshall, but I think most would consider Marshall a good bit better than 2-6 Arkansas State. Montana...well...Montana hasn't played any FBS opponents. But Florida Atlantic?

I'll go back to the Sun Belt's 4-9 record vs. the Southland. I think we went through that in another thread. You said it was all upper level Southland teams beating lower level Sun Belt teams and I showed that the situation can't be explained by that. I pointed out stuff like a 3rd place team in the Southland knocking off a team that tied for the Sun Belt championship and also showed that the conference records of the Southland teams in the matchups were not dramatically better than the conference records of the Sun Belt teams in the matchups.

In any case, there's no way to sweep the record under the rug no matter who played who. You're talking about a FCS league that is, year in and year out, maybe 6th best in FCS. What would've happened if the Sun Belt had been matching up with the Gateway/Missouri Valley or the A-10/CAA? The answer is that it'd almost certainly look even worse for the Sun Belt.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Ball State is having one rough year after going undefeated prior to the MAC Championship last year. The MAC has been down for a the last 3-4 years because their "name" schools, Miami(OH) and Toledo have struggled. However, Central Michigan, NIU and Temple are all good football teams. CMU might be one of the more underrated teams in the country. LeFevour is a great QB. The MAC is not bottom of the barrel FCS football. The bad teams in our conference are horrible i'll grant ya that, but the top 5-6 teams are all pretty solid.

[MaximumBobcat]

And what objective basis do you have for that other than their being in FBS?

Trying to argue for an objective basis for teams that play each other in our little fantasy land? LOL John.

If your objective basis for your argument is based on the Sags, then well...xlolx xlolx xlolx I deal with and build computer models all the time, there are more linkages that can be made between FBS teams because there is simply more good data to compare within the respective subdivisions. Trying to compare a top ranked FBS team through 1 team that played another team that played another team that played another team is prone to lots of errors in real world. That's my main problem with comparing FBS teams and FCS teams on the same scale.



I'll go back to the Sun Belt's 4-9 record vs. the Southland. I think we went through that in another thread. You said it was all upper level Southland teams beating lower level Sun Belt teams and I showed that the situation can't be explained by that. I pointed out stuff like a 3rd place team in the Southland knocking off a team that tied for the Sun Belt championship and also showed that the conference records of the Southland teams in the matchups were not dramatically better than the conference records of the Sun Belt teams in the matchups.


Now, now John, don't be putting words in my mouth, I never said all the Sunbelt upsets were by upper level Southland over lower SBC.

From the old thread...

Sun Belt losses:
2001 Arkansas State (2-4) 22, Nicholls State (1-5) 28
2001 Arkansas State (2-4)28, Jacksonville State (2-4) 31
2001 Louisiana Monroe (2-4) 9, Sam Houston State (5-1) 20
2002 Louisiana Monroe (2-4) 19, McNeese State (6-0) 24
2003 Louisiana Monroe (1-5) 10, Northwestern State (1-4) 14
2003 Louisiana Monroe (1-5) 21, Stephen F. Austin (4-1) 23
2005 Louisiana Monroe (5-2) 23, Northwestern State (3-3) 27
2007 Louisiana Lafayette (3-4) 17, McNeese State (7-0) 38


I stick by my argument that these numbers are skewed because of UL-M and the year 2001! When over 50% of the wins come over UL-M, that is just not an accurate overall picture of the conference. 2001 was the first year for the SBC, when over 1/3 of those wins took place. The two solid wins I see on that sheet that could lend any legitimacy for the SBC < SLC argument are the last two. That they are the most recent gives hope that the SLC has recently began becoming a stronger conference.






In any case, there's no way to sweep the record under the rug no matter who played who. You're talking about a FCS league that is, year in and year out, maybe 6th best in FCS. What would've happened if the Sun Belt had been matching up with the Gateway/Missouri Valley or the A-10/CAA? The answer is that it'd almost certainly look even worse for the Sun Belt.

The only change I see in the SBC wins if they were playing stronger FCS teams would be in the 04 ULL/NSU match up. Even then, that was a top tier SLC team. The rest were blow outs.

2001 Louisiana Lafayette (2-4) 20, Nicholls State (1-5) 0
2002 North Texas (6-0) 23, Nicholls State (3-3) 0
2004 Louisiana Lafayette (2-5) 14, Northwestern State (4-1) 7
2005 Louisiana Lafayette (5-2) 49, Northwestern STate (3-3) 28

The SBC is slowly becoming stronger and the only reason you don't see more SBC wins in the above list is that the winning teams don't really have a need to schedule SLC teams at the same rate they used to, they'd rather increase their SOS and play some money games and have a shot to knock off one of the big boys (like the big win @ Bama a few years ago). The weaker teams like WKU and other struggling SBC teams want to pad their W-L record so they'll schedule more SLC/FCS teams, and since we know the SLC is not a pushover conference, they'll probably get their butts whooped.

Sorry ISU fans for hijacking this thread!!! Beat Ball State!!!

[Redbird Ray]

I don't know if anyone here ever reads MACbbs (MAC conference board), but people over there are flipping out over this. Some of the comments are hysterical. I'm glad our school was able to pull this off, and I'm hopeful that it's a sign of even better things to come.

I think FBS and FCS fans equally devalue each others merits (for the most part), but I will say this. WKU was an above average FCS team that was ranked just about every year for its last ten years or so in FCS. After a solid first year of their transition, they had a rude awakening last year. This year they are winless in the so-called "Sunjoke". I'm not saying top teams the SunBelt or the MAC are better than those from the CAA or MVFC, but I think it's safe to say the middle and lower tier teams are stronger than those from FCS leagues (give or take an EMU here or there).

[JohnStOnge]

If your objective basis for your argument is based on the Sags, then well...xlolx xlolx xlolx I deal with and build computer models all the time, there are more linkages that can be made between FBS teams because there is simply more good data to compare within the respective subdivisions.

Have you tried to validate your belief by actually assessing the effectiveness of FBS/FCS predictions? I'll admit that I haven't looked at that directly either. But I've had discussions like this before and every time someone assumes that one of those models isn't as "good" for a particular type of prediction I find that the bias and error of predictions for that type of prediction is pretty much consistent with the overall performance. If I do it now I'd pretty much have to go with retrodiction because most of the FBS/FCS games have already transpired and I have no way of going back to see what the predictions were. So I'll have to wait until next year to really get the answer. However, I can tell you what's going to happen: There's not going to be sufficient evidence to conclude that Sagarin is any less effective in predicting the outcomes of games between FBS and FCS schools than it is in predicting the outcomes of games between FBS and FBS or FCS and FCS.



Now, now John, don't be putting words in my mouth, I never said all the Sunbelt upsets were by upper level Southland over lower SBC.

If it wasn't you it was another Texas State guy.



I stick by my argument that these numbers are skewed because of UL-M and the year 2001! When over 50% of the wins come over UL-M, that is just not an accurate overall picture of the conference. 2001 was the first year for the SBC, when over 1/3 of those wins took place.

If you take ULM out of it it's 4-4 for the Sun Belt vs. the Southland now. If you take 2001 out of it it's 3-6. If you take both 2001 and ULM out of it it's 3-3.

I happen to think that the Sun Belt has indeed stronger than the Southland. I think that because that's what the power ratings say. But I also think the CAA and MVC, for example, have been stronger than the Southland and that the Sun Belt has been comparable to those leagues. The point, I think, is that if the Sun Belt was distinctly separated from FCS in caliber you wouldn't see it with a 4-8 record against a middle of the pack (maybe 6th or 7th strongest over recent time) FCS league regardless of what the matchups were. There is nothing that has happened with the Sun Belt vs. the Southland to make one say, "Those are two completely different levels of play" such as what's happend, for instance, when the Southland has played against Conference USA schools (14 - 2 CUSA for 2001 on with an average outcome of CUSA 36, Southland 18).

Anyway, after this post I'll stop posting on this subject in this thread. I'll start a new thread on this issue in Other Sports after I assess Sagarin's retrodiction performance and see if there's sufficient evidence there to suggest that the model is any less "accurate" for FBS vs. FCS games than it is for FBS vs. FBS games.


The SBC is slowly becoming stronger

What's your basis for saying that? I happen to believe there has been a trend towards becoming slightly stronger but I'm interested in your reason for thinking that? I still say that there is absolutely no objective basis in terms of on the field results for thinking that the Sun Belt is distinctly separated from the world of FCS in terms of caliber. An example of the kinds of things you can look at is the fact that Troy's record as a Sun Belt member against I-A/FBS teams that aren't in the Sun Belt right now is 4-16. New Hampshire's record over the same period against I-A/FBS teams not in the Sun Belt is 4-1. You could talk about Troy beating Oklahoma State but you can talk about Appalachian State pulling off an even bigger accomplishment by beating Michigan. Once you look at what's happened outside of the very weak Sun Belt, Troy has done nothing that wouldn't be within the reasonable range of possibliities for a top FCS program.

[Dukie95]

That's not cool. Apparently JMU had a H and H set with BSU, but they backed out the week after UNH beat them. Now they turn around and sign up with ISU?

Oh well.

[JMUNJ08]

Don't have the stones...have the brains...same thing.

same reason you don't see most the CAA schedule DII powerhouses...not much good can come out of it.

JMU played Bloomsburg a few years back after they were in the DII playoffs. Most nerve racking game ever. We ran about 6 different plays and won 14-3 IIRC. We must of thought they were just like Lock Haven who isn't very good at allxoopsx


That's not cool. Apparently JMU had a H and H set with BSU, but they backed out the week after UNH beat them. Now they turn around and sign up with ISU?

Oh well.

Darn UNH! That would have been great especially with phase 1 at least of our new stadium complete!

[JmuSkinsfan]

Ball State was supposedly about to sign a contract to play at Harrisonburg in 2011 (home- and home series we would go there) but they didn't return the contract signed after UNH beat them and we took UMD to OT ... would have been cool to have them here ... even if they suck