BSC vs MVC by Sagarin numbers.....

[GrizNzonecrazy]

First we have the MVC:

Team - Record - Sagarin Rank - Avg Sag. Rank of Conf Opps - Avg Sag. Rank of OOC Opps - Avg Sag. Rank of All Opps

SIU -----------(8-1) - 61 - 145.75 - 179.67 - 155.00
SDSU ---------(7-2) - 86 - 142.63 - 121.33 - 136.82
UNI -----------(6-3) - 82 - 143.13 - 134.33 - 140.73
ILL St --------(5-4) - 139 - 136.00 - 132.33 - 135.00
Missouri St --(6-4) - 148 - 134.88 - 134.33 - 134.73
YSU -----------(4-5) - 155 - 134.00 - 132.00 - 133.45
NDSU ---------(2-7) - 163 - 133.00 - 157.67 - 139.73
Indiana St ----(1-9) - 202 - 128.13 - 151.33 - 134.45
Western ILL --(1-8) - 191 - 129.50 - 130.33 - 129.73

Average Sagarin Rank of MVC teams is 136.33

And now for the BSC:

Team - Record - Sagarin Rank - Avg Sag. Rank of Conf Opps - Avg Sag. Rank of OOC Opps - Avg Sag. Rank of All Opps

UM ---(9-0) - 80 - 144.87 - 170.33 - 151.82
EWU --(6-3) - 103 - 142.00 - 133.00 - 139.55
NAU --(5-4) - 109 - 141.25 - 60.00 - 119.10
WSU --(5-4) - 113 - 140.75 - 113.33 - 133.27
MSU --(6-3) - 122 - 139.63 - 149.33 - 142.27
CSUS -(4-5) - 158 - 135.13 - 121.33 - 131.36
UNC --(3-7) - 174 - 133.13 - 148.00 - 137.18
PSU --(2-8) - 176 - 132.88 - 131.00 - 132.26
ISU --(0-10)- 204 - 129.38 - 108.67 - 123.72

Average Sagarin Ranking of BSC teams is 137.66

These two conferences match up well in terms of overall strenth as the MVC has a 1.33 point advantage in the average ranking of their teams. However, as you will see below, the BSC far out performed the MVC in OOC play and given the even conference strength is overall a better conference this year.


For future purposes assume Top 5 BSC teams to be UM, EWU, NAU, WSU, and MSU
For future purposes assume Top 5 MVC teams to be SIU, SDSU, UNI, Illinois St, and Missouri St
Also assume in the MVC that SIU beats SE Missouri St on 11/21 and SDSU loses to Minnesota on 11/14
Assume for the BSC that EWU beats SUU on 11/14 and Weber beats Cal Poly on 11/21
And last, as D-2 teams do not have Sagarin Ratings and hence do not have a rank, i used a rank of 246 which is one lower than the worst Division 1 team for all D-2 teams to calculate averages.

Total OOC Record by Top 5 MVC - 8-7 (7-2 vs FCS)(1-0 vs D-2)(0-5 vs FBS)
Total OOC Record by Top 5 BSC - 9-6 (6-0 vs FCS)(3-0 vs D-2)(0-6 vs FBS)
Total OOC Record by All MVC - 12-15 (11-5 vs FCS)(1-1 vs D-2)(0-9 vs FBS)
Total OOC Record by All BSC - 12-14 (9-2 vs FCS)(3-1 vs D-2)(0-11 vs FBS)

A) Average Sagarin Ranking of All OOC teams faced by MVC Top 5 = 140.4
A) Average Sagarin Ranking of All OOC teams faced by BSC Top 5 = 125.2
B) Average Sagarin Ranking of All OOC teams which MVC Top 5 defeated = 198.0
B) Average Sagarin Ranking of All OOC teams which BSC Top 5 defeated = 171.7
C) Average Sagarin Ranking of All OOC teams which defeated MVC Top 5 = 74.6
C) Average Sagarin Ranking of All OOC teams which defeated BSC Top 5 = 55.3

D) Average Sagarin Ranking of FBS Opponents of Top 5 MVC teams = 53.20
D) Average Sagarin Ranking of FBS Opponents of Top 5 BSC teams = 55.33
E) Average Sagarin Ranking of FCS OOC Opponents of Top 5 MVC teams = 177.11
E) Average Sagarin Ranking of FCS OOC Opponents of Top 5 BSC teams = 134.67
F) Average Sagarin Ranking of ALL Opponents of Top 5 MVC teams = 140.46
F) Average Sagarin Ranking of ALL Opponents of Top 5 BSC teams = 137.20


From exhibits B and C above, its reasonable to say that the BSC beat Non Conference teams that were an average of 26.3 points better than those the MVC beat and lost to OOC teams that were 19.3 points better than those the MVC lost to.



http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt09.htm

[FargoBison]

You went through a lot of work for something Sagarin's rankings basically tells you...



15 BIG SKY (AA)= 55.94 55.29 ( 16) 9
16 MISSOURI VALLEY (AA)= 55.56 55.81 ( 15) 9

[Saluki09]

For future purposes assume Top 5 BSC teams to be UM, EWU, NAU, WSU, and MSU
For future purposes assume Top 5 MVC teams to be SIU, SDSU, UNI, Illinois St, and Missouri St
Also assume in the MVC that SIU beats SE Missouri St on 11/21 and SDSU loses to Minnesota on 11/14
Assume for the BSC that EWU beats SUU on 11/14 and Weber beats Cal Poly on 11/21


Those are rather bold assumptions (no pun intended). Despite being a down year for Cal Poly, just assuming Weber will beat them is a little disingenuous.

And since you are using Sagarin, SUU actually has the edge on EWU since homefield gives them a 3.11 point boost. Sagarin has SUU beating EWU by 1 (61.59 to 60.59). Once again...just assuming a win for EWU is quite the assumption.

Edit : Here are the sagarin spreads for the 4 assumptions.

SIU @ SEMO (SIU by 32.2)
SDSU @ Minnesota (Minnesota by 4.64)
Cal Poly @ WSU (WSU by 9.37)
EWU @ SUU (SUU by 1)

3 of those games are predicted to be less than 10 point games (meaning they will probably be close).

[Saluki09]

Also of note... This really only shows the Big Sky is more balanced. The MVFC is quite obviously top heavy, jumping from 86 ranked SDSU to 139 ranked Illinois state. Once again the Sagrin predictor has all top 3 MVFC schools beating Montana.

On a neutral field (add or subtract 3.11 depending on which team has home field)

SIU vs. Montana (SIU by 9.68)
UNI vs. Montana (UNI by 11.09)
SDSU vs. Montana (SDSU by 5.88)

Let's just wait until the playoffs to see how this all shakes out.