Playoff Prognostications - 11/1

[TexasTerror]

Again, I'm making the effort - throw me a bracket and show me what you think! A lot of teams "eliminated" from consideration this past week.

Automatic Bids
Big Sky: Montana
Colonial: Richmond
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois
Ohio Valley: Eastern Illinois
Patriot: Holy Cross
SoCon: Elon
Southland: McNeese State

At-Large
Stephen F. Austin
New Hampshire
Villanova
William & Mary
Northern Iowa
South Dakota State
Appalachian State
Lafayette

Bracket

South Carolina State @ (1) Richmond
William & Mary @ Appalachian State

Lafayette @ Villanova
Eastern Illinois @ (4) Southern Illinois

Elon @ Northern Iowa
Holy Cross @ (3) New Hampshire

South Dakota State @ McNeese State
Stephen F. Austin @ (2) Montana

Last Teams In

Northern Iowa - At 5-3, the schedule ahead is favorable with YSU and WIU at home before traveling to Illinois St. I think UNI can win all three. Last two games were losses, but that was SDSU and SIU, who are locks.

Lafayette - On a year when there are not as many options, a 9-2 Patriot League team could easily break the field. Loss to Liberty may hurt.

Bubble Teams

Albany - The loss to CCSU threw this one for a loop. An 8-3 NEC team would be hard pressed barring any surprises to come in the FCS landscape.

Central Connecticut State - Could a 10-1 NEC team get in? They'll make a good argument and with a lone loss to William & Mary, one could make the case they are one of the first two teams out.

Colgate - Game at Lafayette this week. Win that and Colgate could start making waves. Lose and the season is practically over.

Eastern Washington - Eligible now, they are 7-3 in Div I games by winning out. Tough road ahead at SUU and Northern Arizona. Could a 6-2 Big Sky team be overlooked? This year, possibly.

Delaware - Has to win out and with games at Navy and at Villanova - good luck. May be joining UC-Davis on the sidelines soon enough!

Florida A&M - Fall out this week, even with the nice win at Morgan State. A little second-guessing on my part that FAMU could run into trouble at Hampton and perhaps even in the Classic vs BCCU. They are in the playoffs already, since it will take three wins and a 9-2 mark to get there.

Liberty - A 9-2 squad translates to 8-2 when you take away sub-Div I win. Is the RPI there? James Madison loss does not look as bad since they beat Delaware and the win over Lafayette may be the difference. They conceivably are one of the first two teams out.

Northern Arizona - The loss to Sac St may have ended the season. Tough games at Ole Miss and at Weber State. A 7-4 Big Sky team is enjoying the postseason.

[Tribe4SF]

If your bracket comes to pass, you can switch Holy Cross and Lafayette for their road trips. The committee won't have those two waving from the bus as they pass each other headed in opposite directions.

If Lafayette and Liberty get to 9-2, look for Liberty to get the nod, D-II win aside. Committee won't be able to get past the head-to-head at Lafayette. Liberty would get paired against Richmond, W&M, ASU or Elon.

[tribe_pride]

That is a deadly top quarter.

[TexasTerror]

If your bracket comes to pass, you can switch Holy Cross and Lafayette for their road trips. The committee won't have those two waving from the bus as they pass each other headed in opposite directions.

Switched - thanks!


If Lafayette and Liberty get to 9-2, look for Liberty to get the nod, D-II win aside. Committee won't be able to get past the head-to-head at Lafayette. Liberty would get paired against Richmond, W&M, ASU or Elon.

Agreed.

Liberty is looking more and more attractive with each passing week. If Lafayette loses to Colgate, it really gets interesting...

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

I don't think anyone can beat App. the way they are playing now. App gets the autobid for the SoCon and Elon finishes 9-2 and hopefully gets an AL bid.

[jcmanson]

How can you have Lafayette in over Liberty? As stated, we beat them in the head to head and the game was at Lafayette. Our 2 losses are to better teams than anyone else Laffy has played.

I'm hoping Laffy and JMU win out. If they do, we're in.

[Ronbo]

If EWU goes 8-3 they won't be left out. You think they will snub the Big Sky with no Great West team eligible? Every year you guys say the BSC will be one bid and you are always wrong. After several years it starts to seem stupid.

[B&G]

Alternate Take...

Automatic Bids
Big Sky: Montana
Colonial: Richmond
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois
Ohio Valley: Eastern Illinois
Patriot: Holy Cross
SoCon: Appalachian State
Southland: McNeese State

At-Large
Stephen F. Austin
New Hampshire
Villanova
William & Mary
Northern Iowa
South Dakota State
Elon
Liberty

Bracket

Liberty @ (1) Richmond
South Dakota State @ McNeese State
... last team in gets the #1 team, a lot depends on SDSU vs So.Ill.

Stephen F. Austin @ Villanova
South Carolina State @ (4) Appalachian State
... tried to keep the 4 CAA teams in different brackets, Liberty's inclusion would virtually seal a SCSU vs ASU rematch

Holy Cross @ New Hampshire
Eastern Illinois @ (3) Southern Illinois
... these are geographical no-brainers

Elon @ William & Mary
Northern Iowa @ (2) Montana
... as 2nd to last team in UNI didn't deserve the chance at a home game

[B&G]

If EWU goes 8-3 they won't be left out. You think they will snub the Big Sky with no Great West team eligible? Every year you guys say the BSC will be one bid and you are always wrong. After several years it starts to seem stupid.

I agree. I have EWU lingering but they have work to do. They could take Liberty's spot if able to win out.

[Digby]

If Lafayette takes the PL, Holy Cross could get in at-large which would complicate things. I do not think any other PL team is likely to get the at-large offer.
HC could offer a regional opponent as an at-large.
Lafayette could be undefeated in the league. Lehigh as bad it they have played at times could mess things up. Colgate struggled with Princeton and that is a problem and none of the three -- LU, HC and LC -- has a good OOC win.
There are a lot of games left.
I expect to see Elon and 'Nova at the final.

[TexasTerror]

Alternate Take...

Automatic Bids
Big Sky: Montana
Colonial: Richmond
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois
Ohio Valley: Eastern Illinois
Patriot: Holy Cross
SoCon: Appalachian State
Southland: McNeese State

At-Large
Stephen F. Austin
New Hampshire
Villanova
William & Mary
Northern Iowa
South Dakota State
Appalachian State
Liberty

Bracket

Liberty @ (1) Richmond
South Dakota State @ McNeese State
... last team in gets the #1 team, a lot depends on SDSU vs So.Ill.

Stephen F. Austin @ Villanova
South Carolina State @ (4) Appalachian State
... tried to keep the 4 CAA teams in different brackets, Liberty's inclusion would virtually seal a SCSU vs ASU rematch

Holy Cross @ New Hampshire
Eastern Illinois @ (3) Southern Illinois
... these are geographical no-brainers

Elon @ William & Mary
Northern Iowa @ (2) Montana
... as 2nd to last team in UNI didn't deserve the chance at a home game

You got Appy State listed twice - once in your AQ, once in at large.

[B&G]

You got Appy State listed twice - once in your AQ, once in at large.

Whoops. I made alterations to yours. Meant to switch the at large to Elon. Thanks!

[Schfourteenteen]

EWU will be 7-3.

Lafayette AND Holy Cross is NOT a 2 team Patriot Combo with Holy Cross as the AQ. Lafayette losing to Holy Cross will keep them out even with a win over Colgate.

And the Southland needs to be listed as A MESS. No team in that conference controls their destiny. That conference 1-4 will be shaped on November 14, and it is possible that only 1 team makes the playoffs.

[SCSUDog4Life]

Alternate Take...

Automatic Bids
Big Sky: Montana
Colonial: Richmond
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois
Ohio Valley: Eastern Illinois
Patriot: Holy Cross
SoCon: Appalachian State
Southland: McNeese State

At-Large
Stephen F. Austin
New Hampshire
Villanova
William & Mary
Northern Iowa
South Dakota State
Appalachian State
Liberty

Bracket

Liberty @ (1) Richmond
South Dakota State @ McNeese State
... last team in gets the #1 team, a lot depends on SDSU vs So.Ill.

Stephen F. Austin @ Villanova
South Carolina State @ (4) Appalachian State
... tried to keep the 4 CAA teams in different brackets, Liberty's inclusion would virtually seal a SCSU vs ASU rematch

Holy Cross @ New Hampshire
Eastern Illinois @ (3) Southern Illinois
... these are geographical no-brainers

Elon @ William & Mary
Northern Iowa @ (2) Montana
... as 2nd to last team in UNI didn't deserve the chance at a home game

Would the committee send SCSU back to Boone after sending them there last season? Not only that, but both SCSU and App State are in the Top 5 in FCS Attendance this season.

If Elon wins the SoCon and gets the seed, how can the committee conceivably send AQ SCSU to at-large App State when home attendance is about even???

[Digby]

I do not disagree about the PL. The only way there is a chance at two bids is if Holy Cross does not take the title and gets an at-large bid.

[B&G]

Would the committee send SCSU back to Boone after sending them there last season? Not only that, but both SCSU and App State are in the Top 5 in FCS Attendance this season.

If Elon wins the SoCon and gets the seed, how can the committee conceivably send AQ SCSU to at-large App State when home attendance is about even???

Well that was in the scenario that ASU wins the SoCon. I thinks SCSU will be sent to play a seeded SoCon Champ whether it be ASU or Elon.

I believe the committee chooses the opponents for the seeded teams first based on proximity as long as they aren't in the same conference. For this reason, it is very possible we could see a rematch in the seeded ASU scenario.

Granted, a lot needs to take place for that to happen. ;)

[EKUSteve]

Would the committee send SCSU back to Boone after sending them there last season? Not only that, but both SCSU and App State are in the Top 5 in FCS Attendance this season.

If Elon wins the SoCon and gets the seed, how can the committee conceivably send AQ SCSU to at-large App State when home attendance is about even???

Yes they would send SC State back. EKU went to Richmond in the first round the last two years.

[Saint3333]

Would the committee send SCSU back to Boone after sending them there last season? Not only that, but both SCSU and App State are in the Top 5 in FCS Attendance this season.

If Elon wins the SoCon and gets the seed, how can the committee conceivably send AQ SCSU to at-large App State when home attendance is about even???

Ask UNH and UNI about seeing each other in back to back playoffs.

If ASU is the last team in the field and isn't paired with a seeded team they will get a home game due to the bidding process. If it fair, no, but this is way they need to seed the top 8 teams to take the money aspect out of the equation.

[SCSUDog4Life]

Yes they would send SC State back. EKU went to Richmond in the first round the last two years.

Well, in the words of Ric Flair "To be the man you gotta beat the man." So whether we have to go to Elon or Boone, we'll be ready to play...no doubt about that. xthumbsupx

Still think it's hard for the committee to pass up that potential revenue in Orangeburg if we were pitted against Elon.

[tribe_pride]

Well, in the words of Ric Flair "To be the man you gotta beat the man." So whether we have to go to Elon or Boone, we'll be ready to play...no doubt about that. xthumbsupx

Still think it's hard for the committee to pass up that potential revenue in Orangeburg if we were pitted against Elon.

If you are pitted against Elon and Elon is seeded, by the rules the game is in Elon (I think this assumes that Elon submits the minimum required bid).


If you are pitted against Elon and Elon is not seeded, it is determined by which school submits the better bid. In that case, SC St. will get it most likely because of the revenue reasons you state.

[TexasTerror]

If you are pitted against Elon and Elon is not seeded, it is determined by which school submits the better bid. In that case, SC St. will get it most likely because of the revenue reasons you state.

If Elon takes care of business from here forward - it'll be hard to overlook them for a seed.

[Schfourteenteen]

Funny how the team that holds it's own destiny for that #8 playoff spot is........


Montana State

[DSUrocks07]

Well, in the words of Ric Flair "To be the man you gotta beat the man." So whether we have to go to Elon or Boone, we'll be ready to play...no doubt about that. xthumbsupx

Still think it's hard for the committee to pass up that potential revenue in Orangeburg if we were pitted against Elon.

Agreed. If SCSU plays App again it will be in Boone. But if Elon is matched up with the Bulldogs. I can virtually guarentee that they can outbid them. What's Elon's home attendance avg?

[TexasTerror]

Agreed. If SCSU plays App again it will be in Boone. But if Elon is matched up with the Bulldogs. I can virtually guarentee that they can outbid them. What's Elon's home attendance avg?

Elon could be seeded if they take care of business, including a win against Appy.

[DSUrocks07]

Elon could be seeded if they take care of business, including a win against Appy.

I understand that. I'm referring to a hypothetical unseeded Elon vs SC State matchup.

[tribe_pride]

I understand that. I'm referring to a hypothetical unseeded Elon vs SC State matchup.

In that case, you are right. I looked before and Elon's attendance figures are 8559 average as compared to SC St.'s 20552. That is only behind Montana (25,736), App. St. (25,321), and Delaware (21,213)

http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/2009/Internet/attendance/FCS_AVGATTENDANCE.pdf

[DSUrocks07]

And for the record, my seeded teams as of right now are:

#1 Richmond
#2 Montana
#3 Villanova
#4 South Dakota State

[catbob]

Funny how the team that holds it's own destiny for that #8 playoff spot is........


Montana State

There is a chance, but we don't wana get our hopes up. :) Just gotta focus on each week and hope the system rewards us in the end.

[Schfourteenteen]

AUTOBIDS
(1)Big Sky: Montana
(2)Colonial: Richmond
(3)MEAC: South Carolina State
(4)Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois
(5)Ohio Valley: Eastern Illinois
(6)Patriot: Holy Cross / Lafayette – loser is out, IMO.
(7)SoCon: Elon

(8)Southland – Four teams at 3-1, 2 games on November 14 will decide the conference. McNeese State vs Texas State, Stephen F. Austin vs SE Louisiana. Below is th

Winners----Champ----AQ?
McNeese State + Stephen F. Austin----Stephen F. Austin----McNeese State.
McNeese State + SE Louisiana----McNeese State----No At Large Bid
Texas State + Stephen F. Austin----Texas State----Stephen F. Austin
Texas State + SE Louisiana----SE Louisiana----No At Large Bid


At-Large Bids "Secured"
(9)New Hampshire IN
(10)Villanova IN
(11)William & Mary IN
(12)South Dakota State IN
(13)Appalachian State IN

Probable At Large Bids
(14)Northern Iowa - 8-3 seems to be the magic number to secure a playoff spot, especially with all the losses over this past week.

(15)Southland #2 - Stephen F. Austin will probably beat SE Lousiana. This victory will secure an At Large Bid for the Southland. How it shakes up depends on the other Nov. 14 game, but 2 teams would be a lock with a SFA win.

That Last Spot

Montana State – 7-3 with WIN over MONTANA, Wins over Montana and Weber State, Losses to NAU and Eastern Washington. They control their own destiny.

Eastern Washington (7-3) / Northern Arizona (7-4) – NAU is likely out regardless, but EWU can make it with a win here. EWU would have wins over teams 4-9 in the Big Sky. The committee will also look to get two teams from the Western Conferences in.

Liberty 8-2 – Win over Lafayette, Losses to James Madison and FBS West Virginia

Florida A&M 9-2 – Win over Tennessee State, Losses to SC State and FBS Miami

Holy Cross/Lafayette loser - IMO is out. Holy Cross would have 2 FCS losses (Lafayette and Brown), which is more than both Liberty and FAMU. Liberty would have also beatten a team HC could not. Lafayette doesn't get in ahead of Liberty.

Central Conn. State - 10-1 with win over Albany. With the Big South being a better conference, I don't see them getting in over Liberty, either.

My monopoly money is on Eastern Washington.

[RabidRabbit]

Again, I'm making the effort - throw me a bracket and show me what you think! A lot of teams "eliminated" from consideration this past week.

Automatic Bids
Big Sky: Montana
Colonial: Richmond
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois
Ohio Valley: Eastern Illinois
Patriot: Holy Cross
SoCon: Elon
Southland: McNeese State

At-Large
Stephen F. Austin
New Hampshire
Villanova
William & Mary
Northern Iowa
South Dakota State
Appalachian State
Lafayette

Bracket

South Carolina State @ (1) Richmond
William & Mary @ Appalachian State

Lafayette @ Villanova
Eastern Illinois @ (4) Southern Illinois

Elon @ Northern Iowa
Holy Cross @ (3) New Hampshire

South Dakota State @ McNeese State
Stephen F. Austin @ (2) Montana

Last Teams In

Northern Iowa - At 5-3, the schedule ahead is favorable with YSU and WIU at home before traveling to Illinois St. I think UNI can win all three. Last two games were losses, but that was SDSU and SIU, who are locks.

Lafayette - On a year when there are not as many options, a 9-2 Patriot League team could easily break the field. Loss to Liberty may hurt.

Bubble Teams

Albany - The loss to CCSU threw this one for a loop. An 8-3 NEC team would be hard pressed barring any surprises to come in the FCS landscape.

Central Connecticut State - Could a 10-1 NEC team get in? They'll make a good argument and with a lone loss to William & Mary, one could make the case they are one of the first two teams out.

Colgate - Game at Lafayette this week. Win that and Colgate could start making waves. Lose and the season is practically over.

Eastern Washington - Eligible now, they are 7-3 in Div I games by winning out. Tough road ahead at SUU and Northern Arizona. Could a 6-2 Big Sky team be overlooked? This year, possibly.

Delaware - Has to win out and with games at Navy and at Villanova - good luck. May be joining UC-Davis on the sidelines soon enough!

Florida A&M - Fall out this week, even with the nice win at Morgan State. A little second-guessing on my part that FAMU could run into trouble at Hampton and perhaps even in the Classic vs BCCU. They are in the playoffs already, since it will take three wins and a 9-2 mark to get there.

Liberty - A 9-2 squad translates to 8-2 when you take away sub-Div I win. Is the RPI there? James Madison loss does not look as bad since they beat Delaware and the win over Lafayette may be the difference. They conceivably are one of the first two teams out.

Northern Arizona - The loss to Sac St may have ended the season. Tough games at Ole Miss and at Weber State. A 7-4 Big Sky team is enjoying the postseason.

The only way that McNeese gets the nod over SFA is if SFA loses again. SFA has the head-to-head tie breaker.

IMHO, SDSU will be the auto-bid, and SIU an at-large. Game at Brookings Sat. will decide that.

An 8-3 UNI will be tough to trump by available choices. Although, as stated, no "quality" wins. Looks to get in based on "quality" losses.

IMHO, CCSU, if 10-1, and NEC champ will be tough to ignor. As would a 9-2 FAMU.

An undefeated Big South Champ fits into that discussion with CCSU, with Liberty maybe getting the nod over CCSU because of the Lafayette win.

[gofurman]

If Lafayette takes the PL, Holy Cross could get in at-large which would complicate things. I do not think any other PL team is likely to get the at-large offer.
HC could offer a regional opponent as an at-large.
Lafayette could be undefeated in the league. Lehigh as bad it they have played at times could mess things up. Colgate struggled with Princeton and that is a problem and none of the three -- LU, HC and LC -- has a good OOC win.
There are a lot of games left.
I expect to see Elon and 'Nova at the final.

If Elon makes the final I'll be sick. FU was every bit their equal. FWIW, I think the CAA will win it or App State.

Teams with no playoff history usually can't just show up and win it. - that being Elon

[Redwyn]

How can you have Lafayette in over Liberty? As stated, we beat them in the head to head and the game was at Lafayette. Our 2 losses are to better teams than anyone else Laffy has played.

I'm hoping Laffy and JMU win out. If they do, we're in.

Gotta think that a Liberty undefeated in conference would beat any Patriot league team in, every time. You're talking about sweeping a stronger conference too, according to team by team rankings. The hill for a 2nd PL team is very steep...

[Saint3333]

There are no locks for any two loss teams with three games remaining. ASU has UTC first, then Elon, and WCU. Those looking ahead will be at home for Thanksgiving

Average home attendance doesn't mean anything only the bid submitted if Elon averages 8K and bids 60K and SCSU averages 20K and bids 50K Elon gets the home game.

[tribe_pride]

There are no locks for any two loss teams with three games remaining. ASU has UTC first, then Elon, and WCU. Those looking ahead will be at home for Thanksgiving

Average home attendance doesn't mean anything only the bid submitted if Elon averages 8K and bids 60K and SCSU averages 20K and bids 50K Elon gets the home game.

Agreed with what is in bold but generally the higher the attendance, the higher the bid. SC St. will probably be able to afford to bid more because they have a higher attendance by 12 thousand fans per game. That's not to say that Elon won't try to outbid a SC St. in this scenario (I know that bids are submitted before the bracket is determined but with the regional concept, you can take an educated guess at who will face whom) but I don't know that a team with that many fewer fans per game (and has not been seeded) has hosted a 1st round game before.

[WestCoastAggie]

WCA's prognostications with 3 weeks left

Seeds
1. Richmond CAA AQ
2. Montana Big Sky AQ
3. South Dakota State MVFC AQ
4. Elon Southern AQ

Other AQ's
South Carolina State MEAC AQ
McNeese State Southland AQ
Holy Cross Patriot AQ
Eastern Illinois OVC AQ

At Large Berths
Villanova CAA
Southern Illinois MVFC
Willam & Mary CAA
New Hampshire CAA
Applachian St. Southern
S. F. Austin SLC
*Northern IowaMVFC
*East. Wash. Big Sky

**Liberty Big South
**Lafayette Patriot
**Tx. StateSLC

* - Last two in
** - First three Out


First Round Games
Holy Cross vs. (1) Richmond
Villanova vs. South Carolina St
S. F. Austin vs. (2) Montana
Northern Iowa vs. McNeese St.
Eastern Wash. vs. (3) South Dakota St
East. Illinois vs. Southern Ill.
New Hampshire vs. (4) Elon
Willam & Mary vs App St.

[DOME]

I want a first round match up with UNH. I also want to see UNI win big their last three games, as in play like they played the first five weeks!

[Tribe4SF]

I don't see Elon outbidding SCSU if it came to that. SCSU not only draws way more fans, their tickets are more expensive than Elon's. Unless Elon is willing to take a finacial loss on a playoff game, SCSU probably gets the home game.

[aceinthehole]

IMHO, CCSU, if 10-1, and NEC champ will be tough to ignor. As would a 9-2 FAMU.

An undefeated Big South Champ fits into that discussion with CCSU, with Liberty maybe getting the nod over CCSU because of the Lafayette win.

I agree!! CCSU's win over Albany is just as good as Liberty's win over Lafayette, especially if they don't win the PL AQ.

That win (along with a 10-1 record), with their only loss to top-5 W&M should get Central SIGNIFIGANT consideration.

I'm not saying we should be in, but we have as good of a case as any PL/BS/OVC at-large candidate.

[WestCoastAggie]

I agree!! CCSU's win over Albany is just as good as Liberty's win over Lafayette, especially if they don't win the PL AQ.

That win (along with a 10-1 record), with their only loss to top-5 W&M should get Central SIGNIFIGANT consideration.

I'm not saying we should be in, but we have as good of a case as any PL/BS/OVC at-large candidate.

They should be considered but the only thing holding them back is these teams strength of schedule. It is an important factor in the information that the selection committee will look into.

With Central Conn., I don't see the game with W&M (a loss) proping up the overall strength of their schedule, unfortunately. xnonono2x

[aceinthehole]

They should be considered but the only thing holding them back is these teams strength of schedule. It is an important factor in the information that the selection committee will look into.

With Central Conn., I don't see the game with W&M (a loss) proping up the overall strength of their schedule, unfortunately. xnonono2x

BS - Look at the those teams SOS vs CCSU. Its lower in every computer ranking. Don't evaulate conference, evaluate teams.

How is Liberty's loss to JMU really helping them? Their best win is Lafayette.

Or how about Holy Cross's loss to Brown? Their best win is Harvard.

Or maybe, Lafayette's loss to Liberty? What is their best win - again, Harvard.


IMO - CCSU's win over Albany and loss to #5 W&M trumps those 3 teams right now.

[Houndawg]

The only way that McNeese gets the nod over SFA is if SFA loses again. SFA has the head-to-head tie breaker.

IMHO, SDSU will be the auto-bid, and SIU an at-large. Game at Brookings Sat. will decide that.

An 8-3 UNI will be tough to trump by available choices. Although, as stated, no "quality" wins. Looks to get in based on "quality" losses.

IMHO, CCSU, if 10-1, and NEC champ will be tough to ignor. As would a 9-2 FAMU.

An undefeated Big South Champ fits into that discussion with CCSU, with Liberty maybe getting the nod over CCSU because of the Lafayette win.

One quality loss, actually. They didn't look that great against either SDSU or SIU.

[Grabholdofyosef]

CAA-Richmond
Big Sky-Montana
MVFC-SDSU
MEAC-SCSU
SOCON-ASU
Southland-SFA
OVC-Eastern Illinois
Patriot-Holy Cross

Villanova
W&M
UNH
SIU
Elon
McNeese St.


Last two spots: If any of these teams win out, I think they all would be deserving of the last two spots. I havnt heard much about jacksonville st, but if they win out, they will have losses to just Ga tech, FSu and eastern illinois and they have looked impressive in most of their wins even though the competition hasnt been of the highest quality.

UNI
Delaware (would probably have edge if they win out with wins over Navy and nova)
Montana St
EWU
Jacksonville St
NAU (would have wins over Ole miss, weber and EWU)

[B&G]

CAA-Richmond
Big Sky-Montana
MVFC-SDSU
MEAC-SCSU
SOCON-ASU
Southland-SFA
OVC-Eastern Illinois
Patriot-Holy Cross

Villanova
W&M
UNH
SIU
Elon
McNeese St.


Last two spots: If any of these teams win out, I think they all would be deserving of the last two spots. I havnt heard much about jacksonville st, but if they win out, they will have losses to just Ga tech, FSu and eastern illinois and they have looked impressive in most of their wins even though the competition hasnt been of the highest quality.

UNI
Delaware (would probably have edge if they win out with wins over Navy and nova)
Montana St
EWU
Jacksonville St
NAU (would have wins over Ole miss, weber and EWU)

Jax St is ineligible

[Schfourteenteen]

IMO - CCSU's win over Albany and loss to #5 W&M trumps those 3 teams right now.

CCSU - 9 games vs. Bottom 50 teams in the GPI. Wins of 7 points, 8 points, 12 points, 7 points, and 1 point against said teams.

Give me a break.

[gophoenix]

I have hated this whole bidding and no seeding thing from the start. Elon home attendance so far is 8559, right. But, 12,000 tickets were sold to homecoming even though only a fraction of those were used because of the rain. We still had two other dates this year with over 10,000 not that that makes difference and the App game is sold out. Despite what App fans will say, the majority of those are not App fans (many of those people will say 1 elon fan showed up and the rest were App fans).

Not that it makes a difference, just saying that fans have been buying tickets. Only problem is, for SC state, Elon or whoever, home attendance averages don't matter. This is thanksgiving weekend and attendance is always smaller then.

Just love how the NCAA awards bigger schools rather than who is the more deserving teams. Typical

[WrenFGun]

UNI suddenly looks really good if they get to 8-3. I think Eastern Washington is the next most likely to draw consideration, but you have to wonder how CCSU at 10-1 stands up to a 7-4 club. If UD or UMass can get to 7-4 it might not be so impossible that one of them draws consideration. Same with Weber, etc.

[NovaHater]

UNI suddenly looks really good if they get to 8-3. I think Eastern Washington is the next most likely to draw consideration, but you have to wonder how CCSU at 10-1 stands up to a 7-4 club. If UD or UMass can get to 7-4 it might not be so impossible that one of them draws consideration. Same with Weber, etc.


You can eliminate UD, of those 7 wins you're giving them, one of them is against a Div II. 6 wins won't qualify anyone

[IaaScribe]

Eastern has to sweep road games at Southern Utah and NAU ... just don't see it happening.

[bigskyrocks]

just wanted to point out that montana clinches at least a share of the big sky title with a win this weekend, and with a montana st. loss UM wins the aq.
1 montana 5-0
2 EWU 5-2 (loss to UM)
WSU 5-2 (loss to UM)
4. NAU 4-2 (loss to UM)
5 MSU 3-2

[R.A.]

I don't see Elon outbidding SCSU if it came to that. SCSU not only draws way more fans, their tickets are more expensive than Elon's. Unless Elon is willing to take a finacial loss on a playoff game, SCSU probably gets the home game.

xthumbsupx

Logic.

[crusader11]

BS - Look at the those teams SOS vs CCSU. Its lower in every computer ranking. Don't evaulate conference, evaluate teams.

How is Liberty's loss to JMU really helping them? Their best win is Lafayette.

Or how about Holy Cross's loss to Brown? Their best win is Harvard.

Or maybe, Lafayette's loss to Liberty? What is their best win - again, Harvard.


IMO - CCSU's win over Albany and loss to #5 W&M trumps those 3 teams right now.

Have fun in the Gridiron Classic.

[IaaScribe]

The Big South is a better league than the Northeast. More funding. Nearly every team has the full allotment of scholarships. Unfortunately for CCSU, its best non-league win came against a Lehigh team having a really down year.

[carney2]

BS - Look at the those teams SOS vs CCSU. Its lower in every computer ranking. Don't evaulate conference, evaluate teams.

How is Liberty's loss to JMU really helping them? Their best win is Lafayette.

Or how about Holy Cross's loss to Brown? Their best win is Harvard.

Or maybe, Lafayette's loss to Liberty? What is their best win - again, Harvard.


IMO - CCSU's win over Albany and loss to #5 W&M trumps those 3 teams right now.

And, most importantly, you are a completely objective observer.

[Native]

If EWU goes 8-3 they won't be left out. You think they will snub the Big Sky with no Great West team eligible? Every year you guys say the BSC will be one bid and you are always wrong. After several years it starts to seem stupid.

You are probably right, Ronbo, but the CAA's four FBS OOC victories may change the equation a bit.

If Weber manages to beat NAU and Cal Poly at home, I suspect they will edge out EWU for that BSC at-large bid.

[aceinthehole]

And, most importantly, you are a completely objective observer.

don't worry, I can make my case with numbers, something others fans here can't do.

Sagarin Schedule Rank (11/1)
FAMU (6-2) - 189
Liberty (6-2) - 193
Lafayette (7-1) - 214
CCSU (7-1) - 218
Holy Cross (7-1) - 224
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbc09.htm

The percieved weak SOS for CCSU is unfounded by some NEC haters out here. They rank comparably to any of the other "bubble" teams, specifically the PL teams. xreadx

[aceinthehole]

The Big South is a better league than the Northeast. More funding. Nearly every team has the full allotment of scholarships. Unfortunately for CCSU, its best non-league win came against a Lehigh team having a really down year.

They don't evaluate teams based on conference funding or schollys.

They compare wins and losses, and the strength of the opponents.

[UNH Fanboi]

You can eliminate UD, of those 7 wins you're giving them, one of them is against a Div II. 6 wins won't qualify anyone

If they manage to win out, they'll be 8-3 with 7 D1 wins. Tough path with them playing Nova and Navy,but it's theoretically possible.

[Dane96]

The Big South is a better league than the Northeast. More funding. Nearly every team has the full allotment of scholarships. Unfortunately for CCSU, its best non-league win came against a Lehigh team having a really down year.

So funding equals better league.

Ridiculous.

Actually, CCSU's best win came against an Albany team that came within a second of beating GSU at Paulson to open the season...and absolutely throttled Maine in the 2nd half of our game with them...the same Maine team that just bitch slapped UMASS.

So...tell me again how CCSU doesnt have some quality under their belt? We are talking about a team that beat a Patriot League team...the same league that is being promoted for two bids by many. Oh...and the score of the Lehigh win was just about the same as the Colgate-Lehigh game won by Lehigh.

You people need to get your heads out of your asses with biases already and look at BODY OF WORK. Some teams are being universally promoted as stronger based on "NAME" and "FUNDING."

That is a load of ****.

Now...do I think CCSU MUST BE IN?!?! No...I dont...but i think they have as good of an argument as a ton of teams seeing that quite frankly...there are only 10-12 teams this year that have distinguished themselves as AUTOMATIC PLAYOFF CALIBER!

[crusader11]

So funding equals better league.

Ridiculous.

Actually, CCSU's best win came against an Albany team that came within a second of beating GSU at Paulson to open the season...and absolutely throttled Maine in the 2nd half of our game with them...the same Maine team that just bitch slapped UMASS.

So...tell me again how CCSU doesnt have some quality under their belt? We are talking about a team that beat a Patriot League team...the same league that is being promoted for two bids by many. Oh...and the score of the Lehigh win was just about the same as the Colgate-Lehigh game won by Lehigh.

You people need to get your heads out of your asses with biases already and look at BODY OF WORK. Some teams are being universally promoted as stronger based on "NAME" and "FUNDING."

That is a load of ****.

Now...do I think CCSU MUST BE IN?!?! No...I dont...but i think they have as good of an argument as a ton of teams seeing that quite frankly...there are only 10-12 teams this year that have distinguished themselves as AUTOMATIC PLAYOFF CALIBER!

Have fun in the Gridiron Classic. Oh wait, no postseason for you. Sorry.

[Dane96]

So who has Holy Cross played?

And is that all the analytical and logical skills you gained at Holy Cross.

You have made two weak ass statements without a sensible factual basis so far....do your school some pride and show some thought.

[WrenFGun]

Have fun in the Gridiron Classic. Oh wait, no postseason for you. Sorry.

Glad to see you've carried your absurd, no facts discussion about Decker over to this absurd, no facts analysis about why an NEC shouldn't be in but a Patriot League Team that lost to Brown should be...please..

I hope LaFayette wins the PL and that boosts Liberty's resume so your team can sit at home for the playoffs, again.

[IaaScribe]

So funding equals better league.

Ridiculous.

Actually, CCSU's best win came against an Albany team that came within a second of beating GSU at Paulson to open the season...and absolutely throttled Maine in the 2nd half of our game with them...the same Maine team that just bitch slapped UMASS.

So...tell me again how CCSU doesnt have some quality under their belt? We are talking about a team that beat a Patriot League team...the same league that is being promoted for two bids by many. Oh...and the score of the Lehigh win was just about the same as the Colgate-Lehigh game won by Lehigh.

You people need to get your heads out of your asses with biases already and look at BODY OF WORK. Some teams are being universally promoted as stronger based on "NAME" and "FUNDING."

That is a load of ****.

Now...do I think CCSU MUST BE IN?!?! No...I dont...but i think they have as good of an argument as a ton of teams seeing that quite frankly...there are only 10-12 teams this year that have distinguished themselves as AUTOMATIC PLAYOFF CALIBER!

Dude, calm the hell down. I think the top two teams in the NEC are very good. But any decent team from any of the power leagues would run through the bottom seven teams in that conference unbeaten. Do you think James Madison loses to Bryant, Monmouth, St. Francis, Robert Morris, Sacred Heart, Duquesne or Wagner? No. I think Gardner-Webb would go unbeaten against that schedule. And Stony Brook. And Cal Poly. These are partial-scholarship teams with no ambition to be any better than that ... with maybe the exception of Bryant.

So we'll look at CCSU's body of work. Good win against Albany. They fell behind 16-0 at W&M and never got closer than nine after that. Never in the game. And they beat a Lehigh team that might win three games.

Great body of work that is.

[Dane96]

I have seen Gardner-Webb play...and they are not impressive. So if that is what you are basing your argument on, then it is weak.

And Stony Brook would not run through that schedule...we know a little something about Stony Brook.

And your lack of knowledge is ridiculous. Duquense, Albany, Bryant, Monmouth, and CCSU definitively have aspirations to go tofull rides. The problem is Bryant, Albany and Duquense do not hold any voting power right now (I dont think Bryant gets theirs until 2012).

[IaaScribe]

Learn how to spell, then talk to me about my lack of knowledge.

[Black Saturday]

I don't think anyone can beat App. the way they are playing now. App gets the autobid for the SoCon and Elon finishes 9-2 and hopefully gets an AL bid.

I've read this whole thread and everyone posting has their heads in the sand. You are correct in what you've seen the last 2 weeks of football about APP. The game in 2 weeks will finally open some of their eyes to the truth.

Elon goes to SCSt round 1

[soccerguy315]

alternatively, if a team that has a good offense can slow App State down, then they will have a chance, since apparently App State can't stop anyone.

that said, I wouldn't want to play them. lol

[Dane96]

Learn how to spell, then talk to me about my lack of knowledge.

A) I can spell-- my academics are pretty solid for those who know me on the board. I was typing fast.

B) You still havent come up with an argument worth its salt.

Everyone who is a sportswriter is a genius now. Just sayin...

[WestCoastAggie]

alternatively, if a team that has a good offense can slow App State down, then they will have a chance, since apparently App State can't stop anyone.

that said, I wouldn't want to play them. lol

Elon is the only team that has shown that they have the ability to slow em down somewhat and can score with em. Will they beat them? I don't know but either way, both teams deserve and should be locks for the playoffs.

BTW: McNeese St. gave the blueprint on how to do beat them.

[joecooll6]

I would think that a FAMU or Liberty would get in before a Patriot League team. Liberty beat Lafayette.

Were definately back in the conversation after the crapstorm last week of bubbles being burst. What about Montana State? They have to at least be on the bubble. If they win out and beat Montana dont you think they would have a very good chance to get in?

[Keenan]

I would think that a FAMU or Liberty would get in before a Patriot League team. Liberty beat Lafayette.

Were definately back in the conversation after the crapstorm last week of bubbles being burst. What about Montana State? They have to at least be on the bubble. If they win out and beat Montana dont you think they would have a very good chance to get in?

Montana State is in over Liberty if they win out. There would be no questions about that. I think Montana State holds their own destiny. Liberty only 1/2 holds their own and has to hope for a lot of other pieces to fall in place.

[bostonspider]

I think that if HC and Colgate both win out, Colgate will get an at-large at 10-1. I realize that the PL has not done so well in the playoffs as of late, but I imagine the committee remembers Colgate's run to the title game only 5 years ago, and gives them a bid...

[joecooll6]

Also, don't pencil UNI in for 8-3 just yet. Next week vs. YSU will be tough. If we play like were capable, we win, but if we play like we have the last two weeks we will lose. We only beat YSU by 1 point the last 2 years.

What if it came down to 9-2 Liberty vs. 9-2 FAMU. Who gets in?

Its tough, but I say FAMU because they wouldnt have a bad loss, James Madison is a bad loss. Also FAMU, I believe, would have 9 DI wins while Liberty would only have 8.

Too bad the playoffs havent expanded yet, this would be a very entertaining opening round.

[phillyAPP]

Elon is the only team that has shown that they have the ability to slow em down somewhat and can score with em. Will they beat them? I don't know but either way, both teams deserve and should be locks for the playoffs.

BTW: McNeese St. gave the blueprint on how to do beat them.

You might say the "blueprint" has changed but, not really. The APP defense is evolving and getting better. The only answer/blueprint i see is the need to score 40+ points to beat APP. APP has soo many weapons and AE is ending his career with a nightmare of a highlight real.

[crusader11]

Glad to see you've carried your absurd, no facts discussion about Decker over to this absurd, no facts analysis about why an NEC shouldn't be in but a Patriot League Team that lost to Brown should be...please..


And I was real wrong about Decker right?

[WrenFGun]

Is he still on the bench, Crusader? I'd say so.

[aceinthehole]

I think that if HC and Colgate both win out, Colgate will get an at-large at 10-1. I realize that the PL has not done so well in the playoffs as of late, but I imagine the committee remembers Colgate's run to the title game only 5 years ago, and gives them a bid...

So Colgate gets in on the basis of its win over Lafayette this year and a playoff run from 2003 when all those guys have graduated? xrolleyesx

[crusader11]

Is he still on the bench, Crusader? I'd say so.

Many UNH fans agree with me that Decker should at least be getting a legit shot/look. Toman has been pretty bad this year, even prior to his injury. I don't see you guys getting passed the first round in the playoffs with him as the starter.

[santosballnewhampshire]

Have fun in the Gridiron Classic. Oh wait, no postseason for you. Sorry.

No postseason for you too buddy...xcoffeex

[crusader11]

No postseason for you too buddy...xcoffeex

Why's that? We are the favorite to win the league right now...although Lafayette will have something to say about that.

[Grabholdofyosef]

Jax St is ineligible
Why is Jacksonville St ineligible?

[gmoney55]

So Colgate gets in on the basis of its win over Lafayette this year and a playoff run from 2003 when all those guys have graduated? xrolleyesx

It would probably depend who things play out other places, but it's hard to ignore a 10-1 team with all D-I wins whose only loss would be to a team that could end up in the top 10-15.

[gmoney55]

AUTOBIDS
(1)Big Sky: Montana
(2)Colonial: Richmond
(3)MEAC: South Carolina State
(4)Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois
(5)Ohio Valley: Eastern Illinois
(6)Patriot: Holy Cross / Lafayette – loser is out, IMO.
(7)SoCon: Elon

(8)Southland – Four teams at 3-1, 2 games on November 14 will decide the conference. McNeese State vs Texas State, Stephen F. Austin vs SE Louisiana. Below is th

Winners----Champ----AQ?
McNeese State + Stephen F. Austin----Stephen F. Austin----McNeese State.
McNeese State + SE Louisiana----McNeese State----No At Large Bid
Texas State + Stephen F. Austin----Texas State----Stephen F. Austin
Texas State + SE Louisiana----SE Louisiana----No At Large Bid


At-Large Bids "Secured"
(9)New Hampshire IN
(10)Villanova IN
(11)William & Mary IN
(12)South Dakota State IN
(13)Appalachian State IN

Probable At Large Bids
(14)Northern Iowa - 8-3 seems to be the magic number to secure a playoff spot, especially with all the losses over this past week.

(15)Southland #2 - Stephen F. Austin will probably beat SE Lousiana. This victory will secure an At Large Bid for the Southland. How it shakes up depends on the other Nov. 14 game, but 2 teams would be a lock with a SFA win.

That Last Spot

Montana State – 7-3 with WIN over MONTANA, Wins over Montana and Weber State, Losses to NAU and Eastern Washington. They control their own destiny.

Eastern Washington (7-3) / Northern Arizona (7-4) – NAU is likely out regardless, but EWU can make it with a win here. EWU would have wins over teams 4-9 in the Big Sky. The committee will also look to get two teams from the Western Conferences in.

Liberty 8-2 – Win over Lafayette, Losses to James Madison and FBS West Virginia

Florida A&M 9-2 – Win over Tennessee State, Losses to SC State and FBS Miami

Holy Cross/Lafayette loser - IMO is out. Holy Cross would have 2 FCS losses (Lafayette and Brown), which is more than both Liberty and FAMU. Liberty would have also beatten a team HC could not. Lafayette doesn't get in ahead of Liberty.

Central Conn. State - 10-1 with win over Albany. With the Big South being a better conference, I don't see them getting in over Liberty, either.

My monopoly money is on Eastern Washington.

So you're discounting Colgate's chance to beat Lafayette? If they do you can book them for 10-1, all DI games, and they'd have the exact same big win that Liberty does.

[McNeese75]

AUTOBIDS
(1)Big Sky: Montana
(2)Colonial: Richmond
(3)MEAC: South Carolina State
(4)Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois
(5)Ohio Valley: Eastern Illinois
(6)Patriot: Holy Cross / Lafayette – loser is out, IMO.
(7)SoCon: Elon

(8)Southland – Four teams at 3-1, 2 games on November 14 will decide the conference. McNeese State vs Texas State, Stephen F. Austin vs SE Louisiana. Below is th

Winners----Champ----AQ?
McNeese State + Stephen F. Austin----Stephen F. Austin----McNeese State.
McNeese State + SE Louisiana----McNeese State----No At Large Bid
Texas State + Stephen F. Austin----Texas State----Stephen F. Austin
Texas State + SE Louisiana----SE Louisiana----No At Large Bid


At-Large Bids "Secured"
(9)New Hampshire IN
(10)Villanova IN
(11)William & Mary IN
(12)South Dakota State IN
(13)Appalachian State IN

Probable At Large Bids
(14)Northern Iowa - 8-3 seems to be the magic number to secure a playoff spot, especially with all the losses over this past week.

(15)Southland #2 - Stephen F. Austin will probably beat SE Lousiana. This victory will secure an At Large Bid for the Southland. How it shakes up depends on the other Nov. 14 game, but 2 teams would be a lock with a SFA win.

That Last Spot

Montana State – 7-3 with WIN over MONTANA, Wins over Montana and Weber State, Losses to NAU and Eastern Washington. They control their own destiny.

Eastern Washington (7-3) / Northern Arizona (7-4) – NAU is likely out regardless, but EWU can make it with a win here. EWU would have wins over teams 4-9 in the Big Sky. The committee will also look to get two teams from the Western Conferences in.

Liberty 8-2 – Win over Lafayette, Losses to James Madison and FBS West Virginia

Florida A&M 9-2 – Win over Tennessee State, Losses to SC State and FBS Miami

Holy Cross/Lafayette loser - IMO is out. Holy Cross would have 2 FCS losses (Lafayette and Brown), which is more than both Liberty and FAMU. Liberty would have also beatten a team HC could not. Lafayette doesn't get in ahead of Liberty.

Central Conn. State - 10-1 with win over Albany. With the Big South being a better conference, I don't see them getting in over Liberty, either.

My monopoly money is on Eastern Washington.


xrolleyesx I wouldn't bet the farm on SFA beating SELU in Hammond.

[UAalum72]

It would probably depend who things play out other places, but it's hard to ignore a 10-1 team with all D-I wins whose only loss would be to a team that could end up in the top 10-15.
I believe you just described CCSU. (although Bryant's transitioning)

[putter]

There are no locks for any two loss teams with three games remaining. ASU has UTC first, then Elon, and WCU. Those looking ahead will be at home for Thanksgiving

Average home attendance doesn't mean anything only the bid submitted if Elon averages 8K and bids 60K and SCSU averages 20K and bids 50K Elon gets the home game.

I disagree. I believe that there are only bid minimums so if $50k is the minimum bid then they both qualify. The NCAA also takes a % of the ticket sales so the SCSU offer may be the more lucrative offer because of the gate..

[aceinthehole]

I believe you just described CCSU. (although Bryant's transitioning)

xnodx Exactly my point!

Yes, Bryant counts as an D-I win. And W&M (CCSU's loss) is a top-5 team.

[Schfourteenteen]

So you're discounting Colgate's chance to beat Lafayette? If they do you can book them for 10-1, all DI games, and they'd have the exact same big win that Liberty does.

I am discounting Colgate. I don't mind admitting that and it sure would be interesting to see that debate between Colgate and Liberty. Same big win, roughly the same loss. They would have beaten Stony Brook as well, although Liberty played at Stony Brook

I think it comes down to whether Lafayette beats Holy Cross, and whether the committee sees 10 wins or 8 wins to slightly better competition(Gardner Webb being that "good" win.

[tribe_pride]

I disagree. I believe that there are only bid minimums so if $50k is the minimum bid then they both qualify. The NCAA also takes a % of the ticket sales so the SCSU offer may be the more lucrative offer because of the gate..

The rules say:


When determining the host institutions when both teams are unseeded, criteria shall apply as follows: (1) quality of facility, (2) revenue potential plus estimated net receipts, (3) attendance history and potential, (4) team's performance (e.g., conference place finish, head-to-head results and number of Division I opponents, and (5) student-athlete well-being (e.g., travel, missed class time)

In reality 5 is dumb because it will effect one side or the other once the matchup has been set the same so 5 is out. 2 and 3 go towards the bid in reality. 1 would also seem to favor the bigger facilities. Only 4 goes towards how a team has played if they are both unseeded and I don't know if we have ever seen that out do the bid.

Minimum bids are:

1st round $30,000
2nd round $40,000
3rd round - $50,000

http://web1.ncaa.org/web_files/champ_handbooks/football/2009/09_1AA_Football.pdf - See page 7

[Schfourteenteen]

xnodx Exactly my point!

Yes, Bryant counts as an D-I win. And W&M (CCSU's loss) is a top-5 team.

Central Connecticut has too many meaningless games to consider. There is no gauge to how good they are, and the committee has never looked at that as a good thing.

And there's a good chance theyre too far down in the computer polls to be seriously in the mix.

[joecooll6]

I dont think that a 2nd Patriot League team or an NEC team should get a bid over an 8-3 team from the CAA, MVFC, SoCon, Big Sky or Southland unless they have gone out and played and beat decent competition from one of these leagues. Those are the conferences you need to compare yourselves to, you have to prove you belong in this category. The Patriot League as a whole has a total of ONE win against teams with even .500 records in a full scholarship awarding league (Colgates win over 5-4 Stony Brook). And the NEC has only ONE as well, Albany's win over 4-4 Maine.

Not saying that the NEC and P League teams arent good, they just havent proven that they are, and I personally think when you dont fully fund like the rest of the division, the burden of proof lies with you in the regular season. You shouldnt get the benefit of the doubt.

[Purple7]

Although no. 1 below leaves a lot open, I would think no. 6 below would place Liberty in trouble since they don't have 2 wins against non-conference foes from auto bid conferences. Am I reading this wrong? What is everyone's take on the FCS handbook?

[Reference: Bylaws 31.01.2, 31.01.3 and 31.3 in the NCAA Manual.]
The following principles shall apply when selecting at-large teams:
1. The committee shall select the best teams available on a national at-large basis to
complete the bracket;
2. There is no limit to the number of teams the committee may select from one
conference;
3. The won-lost record of a team will be scrutinized to determine a team’s strength of
schedule; however, less than seven Division I wins may place a team in jeopardy of
not being selected;
4. The committee may give more consideration to those teams that have played all
Division I opponents; and
5. If the team of a committee member is under consideration, the member may not vote
for the team being considered and will not be in the room when a vote is taken.
6. For those conferences that qualify for automatic qualification but do not receive it,
a guaranteed at-large position shall be awarded in any year in which its conference
champion team meets all of the following conditions:
a. Team wins a minimum of eight Division I games during the season;
b. Team wins a minimum of two non-conference games against Division I teams
representing a conference that has earned an automatic qualification in that year;
and
c. Team finishes the season ranked 16 or higher in an average of the last regularseason media, coaches and/or computer polls (which will be determined by the
committee on an annual basis). For 2009, the media poll will be the Sports
Network Poll, the coaches poll will be the FCS Coaches poll and the computer
poll will be a variation of the Gridiron Power Index – using only the following
computer rankings: The Massey Ratings, Wolfe Rankings, Ashburn Rankings,
Self Rankings and the Laz Index.

[IaaScribe]

A) I can spell-- my academics are pretty solid for those who know me on the board. I was typing fast.

B) You still havent come up with an argument worth its salt.

Everyone who is a sportswriter is a genius now. Just sayin...

I came up with an argument. And what the NEC plans to do in the future has nothing to do with the present. CCSU's schedule stinks THIS YEAR. CCSU has no quality wins outside of Albany. The NEC outside of CCSU and Albany is not very good. And the worst teams in every major conference would at worst break even against the NEC dregs. Deal with it.ealm.

[Tribe4SF]

Although no. 1 below leaves a lot open, I would think no. 6 below would place Liberty in trouble since they don't have 2 wins against non-conference foes from auto bid conferences. Am I reading this wrong? What is everyone's take on the FCS handbook?

[Reference: Bylaws 31.01.2, 31.01.3 and 31.3 in the NCAA Manual.]
The following principles shall apply when selecting at-large teams:
1. The committee shall select the best teams available on a national at-large basis to
complete the bracket;
2. There is no limit to the number of teams the committee may select from one
conference;
3. The won-lost record of a team will be scrutinized to determine a team’s strength of
schedule; however, less than seven Division I wins may place a team in jeopardy of
not being selected;
4. The committee may give more consideration to those teams that have played all
Division I opponents; and
5. If the team of a committee member is under consideration, the member may not vote
for the team being considered and will not be in the room when a vote is taken.
6. For those conferences that qualify for automatic qualification but do not receive it,
a guaranteed at-large position shall be awarded in any year in which its conference
champion team meets all of the following conditions:
a. Team wins a minimum of eight Division I games during the season;
b. Team wins a minimum of two non-conference games against Division I teams
representing a conference that has earned an automatic qualification in that year;
and
c. Team finishes the season ranked 16 or higher in an average of the last regularseason media, coaches and/or computer polls (which will be determined by the
committee on an annual basis). For 2009, the media poll will be the Sports
Network Poll, the coaches poll will be the FCS Coaches poll and the computer
poll will be a variation of the Gridiron Power Index – using only the following
computer rankings: The Massey Ratings, Wolfe Rankings, Ashburn Rankings,
Self Rankings and the Laz Index.

Not meeting those criteria means they wouldn't qualify for "a guaranteed at-large position". Doesn't mean they couldn't be selected for an at-large position, only that it wouldn't be guaranteed.

[Dane96]

It would probably depend who things play out other places, but it's hard to ignore a 10-1 team with all D-I wins whose only loss would be to a team that could end up in the top 10-15.

Oh...you mean kinda like Central Ct., who will have lost to a team likely to finish in the Top 4? That would be their only loss.

I really wish that the NEC, PL and Ivy's would just bang it out for two-three seasons in an exclusive OOC scheduling deal.

All I hear is how your top is good...and your bottom is bad...that's why those two conferences get more respect. My answer:

1. Our top has had PROVEN better wins than both those leagues combined in the past three years.
2. Our bottom is bad...but no worse than the PL and IVY bottom.

Yet, the rankings and polls give weight to "history" so there is no way, for example, that an NEC school can climb to a huge level because the bottom is always being ranked lower than the IVY and PL based on nothing but history.

Tell me why a 10-1 Colgate team vs. a 10-1 CCSU (and conference champion if they finish with that record) should be a stronger candidate than the latter.

[Dukie95]

So, Liberty and a second patriot or MEAC team are now seriously top 16 teams to many of you? Are you guys serious or overly PC?

Ok, here goes...

Let me be clear. In no way am I making a case for JMU to be in the playoffs. BUT, would any of those teams have fared any better against UR, NOVA or W&M?

Granted, Hofstra was a bad loss for JMU, but have any of those teams receiving these hypothetical at larges even played ONE team as good as Hofstra, let alone four others better than Hofstra?

Again, this isn't all about JMU. We've just not been good this year - Delaware and UMass are in the same boat. This is more an indictment on that whole 7-win thing. There WILL be some teams that fail to reach 7 wins that will be better than several teams in the field.

Yeah, I know...CAA Fanboi, flame away, but...seriously... How does Liberty, that almost everyone agreed would need to beat JMU to make the playoffs, make it in regardless (even after that same JMU team falls out of the polls)

I also get that we have a playoff for a reason, those other CAA teams had their chances and failed...now it's time for those other 9-2 and 10-1 teams to get their lumps. :)

[McNeese72]

Why is Jacksonville St ineligible?

APR

[gmoney55]

Oh...you mean kinda like Central Ct., who will have lost to a team likely to finish in the Top 4? That would be their only loss.

I really wish that the NEC, PL and Ivy's would just bang it out for two-three seasons in an exclusive OOC scheduling deal.

All I hear is how your top is good...and your bottom is bad...that's why those two conferences get more respect. My answer:

1. Our top has had PROVEN better wins than both those leagues combined in the past three years.
2. Our bottom is bad...but no worse than the PL and IVY bottom.

Yet, the rankings and polls give weight to "history" so there is no way, for example, that an NEC school can climb to a huge level because the bottom is always being ranked lower than the IVY and PL based on nothing but history.

Tell me why a 10-1 Colgate team vs. a 10-1 CCSU (and conference champion if they finish with that record) should be a stronger candidate than the latter.

CCSU would have the exact same resume as Colgate and would deserve to be in at 10-1 IMO. I'm a believer that winning your games is a big deal. The question I responded to had nothing to do with CCSU, he was talking about Liberty.

[SuperJon]

The "guaranteed access" only applies to the NEC. We learned that the hard way last year when we had all of the qualifications and didn't get in. It's only "auto-bid eligible conferences" and this year, we're not auto-bid eligible.

[Dane96]

CCSU would have the exact same resume as Colgate and would deserve to be in at 10-1 IMO. I'm a believer that winning your games is a big deal. The question I responded to had nothing to do with CCSU, he was talking about Liberty.

gotcha...

...my post was just pure frustration in general.

[89Hen]

I don't have the stomach to read all this playoff talk this week, but the fact that a Lafayette or Liberty will be in the field as an at-large makes me even more sick to my stomach. Yeah, we really needed to expand to 20. xnonono2x xnonono2x

[Montana_Mojo]

I'll take a crack at this...

Automatic Qualifiers

Big Sky: Montana
Colonial: Richmond
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: South Dakota State
Ohio Valley: Eastern Illinois
Patriot: Holy Cross
SoCon: Appalachian State
Southland: McNeese State

At-Large Bids

-Elon
-New Hampshire
-Northern Iowa
-Southern Illinois
-Stephen F. Austin
-Villanova
-William & Mary
-Stephen F. Austin**
-Weber State**

**-Last two teams in

I project the Southland getting a second team in. I project Weber State will get in by winning its last two games at home against Northern Arizona and Cal Poly. Weber State would finish 7-4, but they will have beaten Eastern Washington head-to-head, and two of their losses were close losses to FBS teams (they should have beaten Colorado State). And beating Cal Poly will give them a strong FCS win to close out the slate.

Also, I project all CAA at-large teams will have two conference losses, which will rule them out for a seed (Villanova and W&M both lose to Richmond and New Hampshire loses to W&M). However, there are several scenarios that could lead to the CAA getting two teams seeded, with the primary one being both Richmond and New Hampshire winning out.

Projected Seeds:
1. Richmond
2. Montana
3. McNeese St. (If they win out, win at App. State carries major weight and delivers a seed)
4. Appalachian St.

Playoff Field Projection:

Bracket I

Elon at #1 Richmond
South Dakota St. at New Hampshire

Holy Cross at Villanova
South Carolina State at #4 Appalachian State

Bracket II

Stephen F. Austin at #2 Montana
Eastern Illinois at Northern Iowa

Weber State at Southern Illinois
William & Mary at #3 McNeese State

[UNH Fanboi]

I don't see McNeese State getting a seed over the winner of SIU v. SDSU. UNH, Nova or W&M would also have better resumes if either of them win out.

[appstfan]

Automatic Qualifiers

Big Sky: Montana
Colonial: Richmond
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: South Dakota State
Ohio Valley: Eastern Illinois
Patriot: Holy Cross
SoCon: Appalachian State
Southland: McNeese State

At-Large Bids

-Elon
-New Hampshire
-Northern Iowa
-Southern Illinois
-Stephen F. Austin
-Villanova
-William & Mary
-Stephen F. Austin**
-Weber State**

**-Last two teams in

I project the Southland getting a second team in. I project Weber State will get in by winning its last two games at home against Northern Arizona and Cal Poly. Weber State would finish 7-4, but they will have beaten Eastern Washington head-to-head, and two of their losses were close losses to FBS teams (they should have beaten Colorado State). And beating Cal Poly will give them a strong FCS win to close out the slate.

Projected Seeds:
1. Richmond
2. Montana
3. McNeese St. (If they win out, win at App. State carries major weight and delivers a seed)
4. Appalachian St.

Playoff Field Projection:

Bracket I

Elon at #1 Richmond
South Dakota St. at New Hampshire

Holy Cross at Villanova
South Carolina State at #4 Appalachian State

Bracket II

Stephen F. Austin at #2 Montana
Eastern Illinois at Northern Iowa

Weber State at Southern Illinois
William & Mary at #3 McNeese State

These are same 16 teams we projected yesterday. We did have Southern Ill as the 3 seed if they can beat SDSU.

[Montana_Mojo]

These are same 16 teams we projected yesterday. We did have Southern Ill as the 3 seed if they can beat SDSU.

Sorry if I missed that, but I didn't find anyone in this particular thread that had those same 16 teams (most notably a bracket that included Weber State). Most are saying Eastern Washington will be the second Big Sky team, but that won't happen if Weber State wins out.

People also keep entertaining fantasies of a second Patriot team or Liberty getting in, which simply won't happen. No way a weak Patriot League gets two in, while the Big Sky only gets one.

I agree that if So Illinois beats South Dakota State, they're at the very least a three seed. Maybe a two seed.

[JMUNJ08]

Also, don't pencil UNI in for 8-3 just yet. Next week vs. YSU will be tough. If we play like were capable, we win, but if we play like we have the last two weeks we will lose. We only beat YSU by 1 point the last 2 years.

What if it came down to 9-2 Liberty vs. 9-2 FAMU. Who gets in?

Its tough, but I say FAMU because they wouldnt have a bad loss, James Madison is a bad loss. Also FAMU, I believe, would have 9 DI wins while Liberty would only have 8.

Too bad the playoffs havent expanded yet, this would be a very entertaining opening round.

If JMU wins 2 of 3 or all 3 to end the season it will not be a bad loss.

[Montana_Mojo]

I don't see McNeese State getting a seed over the winner of SIU v. SDSU. UNH, Nova or W&M would also have better resumes if either of them win out.

I don't project that UNH, Nova, or W&M will win out. All three would have two conference losses in my projection which would preclude them from gaining seeds. Also, I project that SIU loses to SDSU. I don't think SDSU will gain a seed over App State or McNeese if both win out (which I also project happening). And I think McNeese will gain a #3 seed by virtue of its win at Appalachian State earlier this season, which is a powerful win that will carry weight when the NCAA committee selects the field and seeds.

That's my reasoning behind my predictions, which I already clarified in my original projection post.

[89Hen]

South Dakota St. at New Hampshire
I think it may be the other way around.

[joecooll6]

I think that its pretty obvious that CCSU makes at least as good an arguement as Colgate does if both finish 10-1. That is what a lot of people have been arguing here. But does either make a better arguement than a 9-2 Liberty? Or a 9-2 Florida A&M? Or an 8-3 UNI, or an 8-3 Eastern Washington or an 8-3 Montana State, or a 7-4 Weber?

Those are the questions we should be answering. Right now it doesnt just come down to CCSU vs. Colgate.

[WrenFGun]

I think it may be the other way around.

I KNOW it will be the other way around. xbawlingx

[knucklehead]

I think that its pretty obvious that CCSU makes at least as good an arguement as Colgate does if both finish 10-1. That is what a lot of people have been arguing here. But does either make a better arguement than a 9-2 Liberty? Or a 9-2 Florida A&M? Or an 8-3 UNI, or an 8-3 Eastern Washington or an 8-3 Montana State, or a 7-4 Weber?

Those are the questions we should be answering. Right now it doesnt just come down to CCSU vs. Colgate.

Here Here. It's way too early to narrow anything down on any of those teams. This past weekend was all the proof you need for the ups and downs that are still to come. It could be any of those teams at this point.

[rcny46]

I KNOW it will be the other way around. xbawlingx

And as you indicate, that's just plain sad,no matter whom UNH is paired with in the first round.

[knucklehead]

I don't have the stomach to read all this playoff talk this week, but the fact that a Lafayette or Liberty will be in the field as an at-large makes me even more sick to my stomach. Yeah, we really needed to expand to 20. xnonono2x xnonono2x

Sorry it makes you sick, but don't panic yet there are a lot of games left before you need worry about getting sick or not. Didn't you have other issues to make you sick on Saturday?

[19Duke97]

Alternate Take...

Automatic Bids
Big Sky: Montana
Colonial: Richmond
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois
Ohio Valley: Eastern Illinois
Patriot: Holy Cross
SoCon: Appalachian State
Southland: McNeese State

At-Large
Stephen F. Austin
New Hampshire
Villanova
William & Mary
Northern Iowa
South Dakota State
Elon
Liberty

Bracket

Liberty @ (1) Richmond
South Dakota State @ McNeese State
... last team in gets the #1 team, a lot depends on SDSU vs So.Ill.

Stephen F. Austin @ Villanova
South Carolina State @ (4) Appalachian State
... tried to keep the 4 CAA teams in different brackets, Liberty's inclusion would virtually seal a SCSU vs ASU rematch

Holy Cross @ New Hampshire
Eastern Illinois @ (3) Southern Illinois
... these are geographical no-brainers

Elon @ William & Mary
Northern Iowa @ (2) Montana
... as 2nd to last team in UNI didn't deserve the chance at a home game

+1 I like this setup, and Villanova vs App state in the second round would be a nasty matchup, but Appy and nova both have huge games over the next 2 weeks that could throw this in the air.

[gmoney55]

I think that its pretty obvious that CCSU makes at least as good an arguement as Colgate does if both finish 10-1. That is what a lot of people have been arguing here. But does either make a better arguement than a 9-2 Liberty? Or a 9-2 Florida A&M? Or an 8-3 UNI, or an 8-3 Eastern Washington or an 8-3 Montana State, or a 7-4 Weber?

Those are the questions we should be answering. Right now it doesnt just come down to CCSU vs. Colgate.

Weber would be the most interesting case IMO. Played well in their two FBS losses and have some nice wins.

[19Duke97]

So, Liberty and a second patriot or MEAC team are now seriously top 16 teams to many of you? Are you guys serious or overly PC?

Ok, here goes...

Let me be clear. In no way am I making a case for JMU to be in the playoffs. BUT, would any of those teams have fared any better against UR, NOVA or W&M?

Granted, Hofstra was a bad loss for JMU, but have any of those teams receiving these hypothetical at larges even played ONE team as good as Hofstra, let alone four others better than Hofstra?

Again, this isn't all about JMU. We've just not been good this year - Delaware and UMass are in the same boat. This is more an indictment on that whole 7-win thing. There WILL be some teams that fail to reach 7 wins that will be better than several teams in the field.

Yeah, I know...CAA Fanboi, flame away, but...seriously... How does Liberty, that almost everyone agreed would need to beat JMU to make the playoffs, make it in regardless (even after that same JMU team falls out of the polls)

I also get that we have a playoff for a reason, those other CAA teams had their chances and failed...now it's time for those other 9-2 and 10-1 teams to get their lumps. :)

Dukie, I get your point, but you could argue we were a different team when we had our starting QB out there, and he was the one who won that game for us. I think if we had Dudczik start the whole season our record may be quite different than 3-5. It's all speculation, but teams do change from week to week due to injury. You could also argue that JT is finally getting his feet under him. the argument between EWU v Liberty v CCSU is a no brainer if all teams win out, EWU will get the spot.

[Walkon79]

You are probably right, Ronbo, but the CAA's four FBS OOC victories may change the equation a bit.

If Weber manages to beat NAU and Cal Poly at home, I suspect they will edge out EWU for that BSC at-large bid.

If the Bobcats win out it probably doesn't matter how WSU finishes. Big IF I know :)

[MSU_77]

I'll take a crack at this...

Automatic Qualifiers

Big Sky: Montana
Colonial: Richmond
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: South Dakota State
Ohio Valley: Eastern Illinois
Patriot: Holy Cross
SoCon: Appalachian State
Southland: McNeese State

At-Large Bids

-Elon
-New Hampshire
-Northern Iowa
-Southern Illinois
-Stephen F. Austin
-Villanova
-William & Mary
-Stephen F. Austin**
-Weber State**

**-Last two teams in

I project the Southland getting a second team in. I project Weber State will get in by winning its last two games at home against Northern Arizona and Cal Poly. Weber State would finish 7-4, but they will have beaten Eastern Washington head-to-head, and two of their losses were close losses to FBS teams (they should have beaten Colorado State). And beating Cal Poly will give them a strong FCS win to close out the slate.

Also, I project all CAA at-large teams will have two conference losses, which will rule them out for a seed (Villanova and W&M both lose to Richmond and New Hampshire loses to W&M). However, there are several scenarios that could lead to the CAA getting two teams seeded, with the primary one being both Richmond and New Hampshire winning out.

Projected Seeds:
1. Richmond
2. Montana
3. McNeese St. (If they win out, win at App. State carries major weight and delivers a seed)
4. Appalachian St.

Playoff Field Projection:

Bracket I

Elon at #1 Richmond
South Dakota St. at New Hampshire

Holy Cross at Villanova
South Carolina State at #4 Appalachian State

Bracket II

Stephen F. Austin at #2 Montana
Eastern Illinois at Northern Iowa

Weber State at Southern Illinois
William & Mary at #3 McNeese State

I don't believe there is any way McNeese gets a seed this year, regardless of their final record or the win over App State. Plus, given the Cowboys' bad first round performances in past when seeded, I would just as soon they not be seeded. The only thing I wish for is that they NOT be sent to Missoula again in the first round. And, I'm sure App would like another crack at McNeese. xthumbsupx