Top Rankings for Computer and Human Poll Biases - After 10/17 Games

[eastbayaggie]

Top Rankings for Computer and Human Poll Biases - After 10/17 Games

This is partly inspired by looking at UNIFanSince1983's FCS BCS poll, so I'm giving him credit for this idea.
By looking at the GPI rankings, I've calculated the top computer and human poll's biases using the BCS formula.*


Top Rankings Biased Towards the Computer's Favor

1 Northern Arizona 0.527
2 Delaware 0.429
3 Jacksonville State 0.269
4 Montana State 0.238
5 UC Davis 0.204
6 Massachusetts 0.171
7 SF Austin 0.128
8 Eastern Washington 0.110
9 Lafayette 0.088
10 South Dakota State 0.087
11 William & Mary 0.080
12 Villanova 0.063
13 Liberty 0.061
14 Northern Iowa 0.037
15 Cal Poly SLO 0.031
16 Georgia Southern 0.031
17 Missouri State 0.030


Northern Arizona: 0.527
Middle 5 computer poll rankings: #8, #9, #12, #12, #13
3 human poll rankings: #24, #24, #25



Top Rankings Biased Towards the Human Poll's Favor

1 Appalachian State -0.626
2 McNeese State -0.446
3 Colgate -0.335
4 Central Arkansas -0.300
5 Elon -0.207
6 Eastern Kentucky -0.174
7 South Carolina State -0.162
8 Holy Cross -0.124
9 Southern Illinois -0.094
10 E. Illinois -0.067
11 New Hampshire -0.057
12 Weber State -0.048
13 Priairie View A&M -0.038
14 Furman -0.037
15 Florida A&M -0.023


Appalachian State: -0.626
Middle 5 computer poll rankings: #21, #24, unranked, unranked, unranked
3 human poll rankings: #8, #8, #9


*Computer Poll: Using BCS formula, % of points of the 7 computer rankings used in the GPI(-high and low rankings)
Human Poll: Using BCS formula, (% of points AGS + % of points SN + % of points coaches poll)/3
Bias = computer poll - human poll

The biases don't seem to be significant until at least the 0.1 to 0.2 level.

Personal Terse Disclosure: Both computer and human polls have their own unique biases and misgivings.


Bonus Ranking

Top 2 Rankings of Biases Between Human Polls

1 Delaware 0.277** AGS poll - FCS poll (BCS formula)
2 Furman 0.179*** AGS poll - FCS poll (BCS formula)

** Delaware received 982 points out of 99 voters in the Any Given Saturday poll and only 84 points out of 28 voters in the FCS Coaches poll.
*** Furman received 444 points out of 99 voters in the Any Given Saturday poll and only 0 points out of 28 voters in the FCS coaches poll.

Gridiron Power Index (GPI)
http://www.collegesportingnews.com/stats/writer/GPI/20091019gpi.html

[89Hen]

Yikes. That's a lot of computation. xbowx

[JMUNJ08]

Bias towards the computers and human polls seem extremely similar. Both view a similar amount of teams in different ways. Being a math guy myself, thanks for the formulas!xthumbsupx

[jmufan999]

that makes my head hurt.

[OhioHen]

Bias towards the computers and human polls seem extremely similar. Both view a similar amount of teams in different ways. Being a math guy myself, thanks for the formulas!xthumbsupx

Among those ranked in the polls, it should work out to almost exactly half higher in the polls and almost exactly half higher in the computer. Only the few (if any) that get exactly the same love from the polls as the computer won't show any bias. If one team is too high, another team (or more) has to offset by being too low.

[Bam]

My hangover is back after this one. xrotatehx

[JMUNJ08]

Among those ranked in the polls, it should work out to almost exactly half higher in the polls and almost exactly half higher in the computer. Only the few (if any) that get exactly the same love from the polls as the computer won't show any bias. If one team is too high, another team (or more) has to offset by being too low.

I understand the half and half. Still, you could just have one or 2 real outliers and the rest only slight bias.

[eastbayaggie]

I should have shown the poll results of the largest computer bias and the largest human bias. I'll edit and add it later in my original post so that people can see the difference.

Northern Arizona: 0.527
Middle 5 computer poll rankings: #8, #9, #12, #12, #13
3 human poll rankings: #24, #24, #25

Appalachian State: -0.626
Middle 5 computer poll rankings: #21, #24, unranked, unranked, unranked
3 human poll rankings: #8, #8, #9

[Native]

VERY nice analysis, Aggie! Thank you! xthumbsupx

The obvious conclusion, which matches my gut, is that Northern Arizona is overratted in the computer polls and underrated in the computer ratings, and vice-versa for Appalachian State.