Massey Ratings & Playoffs Prognostications 10/10

[eastbayaggie]

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf


Massey Ratings

1. Richmond 5-0
2. Northern Iowa 5-1
3. Montana 5-0
4. William & Mary 5-1
5. Villanova 5-1
6. New Hampshire 5-0
7. S. Illinois 4-1
8. Elon 5-1
9. S. Dakota St. 4-1
10. Delaware 4-2
11. Jacksonville St. 4-2
12. Massachusetts 3-2
13. N. Arizona 3-2
14. Weber St. 3-3
15. Cal Poly SLO 2-3
16. E. Washington 4-2
17. SF Austin 4-1
18. James Madison 2-3
19. Central Arkansas 4-1
20. Appalachian St. 3-2
21. UC Davis 2-3
22. Montana State 3-2
23. Furman 3-2
24. Harvard 3-1
25. S. Carolina St. 4-1
26. Southern Utah 2-3
27. Holy Cross 4-1
28. Hofstra 3-3
29. Colgate 6-0
30. McNeese St. 3-2


Automatic Bids

Big Sky #3 Montana
Colonial #1 Richmond
MEAC #25 SC State
MVFC #2 Northern Iowa
OVC #11 Jacksonville State
Patriot #27 Holy Cross
SoCon #8 Elon
Southland #17 SF Austin


At-Large

#4 William & Mary (CAA)
#5 Villanova (CAA)
#6 New Hampshire (CAA)
#7 S. Illinois (MVFC)
#9 S. Dakota St. (MVFC)
#10 Delaware (CAA)
#12 Massachusetts (CAA)
#13 N. Arizona (BSC)


Bubble Teams

#14 Weber St. (BSC)
#15 Cal Poly SLO (GWFC)
#16 E. Washington (BSC)
#18 James Madison (CAA)
#20 Appalachian St. (SC)
#21 UC Davis (GWFC)
#22 Montana State (BSC)
#23 Furman (SC)

[HensRock]

6 CAA Teams in the fiekd of 16?

If only we didn't need to play each other before then....

[unigriff]

7 with a bubble team

[93henfan]

I move to make Mr. Massey and Mr. Sagarin members of the selection committee. Do I have a second? xlolx

[soccerguy315]

why is W&M ahead of Nova?

[Green26]

Sagarin and Massey is sorta "on" the selection committee, as their ratings are part of the GPI, which is used by the selection committee.

Anyway, this is my recollection. Feel free to correct, if I'm wrong.

[Squealofthepig]

While the CAA will invariably knock a few of these six out of contention (not sure if it is even possible for all six to get to seven wins simultaneously), it also shows that the CAA has a better than even-odds chance of getting at least one of the top two seeds.

Also a bit surprised to see the rest of the BSC right at the cutoff - NAU, Weber and EWU (currently ineligible).

[Native]

Sagarin and Massey is sorta "on" the selection committee, as their ratings are part of the GPI, which is used by the selection committee.

Anyway, this is my recollection. Feel free to correct, if I'm wrong.

Your recollection is pretty good, but I think the NCAA changes the composition of the GPI once in a while.

[Native]

Things will change due to the upcoming top 20 matchups, but Massey is probaby the most accurate current assessment of the FCS.

[Green26]

UMass is 3-2, with remaining games against UNH, Richmond, Maine and JMU. They are going to have to play well to be even 7-4. Even though they don't have any quality wins yet, at 7-4 with a win over either UNH or Richmond, I'd could see them getting in the playoffs.

Delaware is 4-2, with reamaining games against Nova, JMU and Navy. At 7-4, they wouldn't have 7 D-I wins.

JMU is 2-3, with a bad loss to Hofstra. They have an uphill battle, with remaining games against Nova, W&M, Delaware, Maine and UMass. I don't see how they can even get to 7-4.

So. Dak. St. is 4-1, but they have remaining games against UNI, Youngstown, So. Ill. and Minnesota.

So. Ill. is 4-1 with games remaining against UNI, Youngstown and So. Dak. St. They don't have a very tough schedule.

I follow the Big Sky but can't predict who's going to win from week to week. EWU is ineligible for the playoffs, unless they can win their appeal.

Davis is a good team, but with losses to two I-A's and a win over a D-II, I don't see how they get 7 D-I wins.

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

why is W&M ahead of Nova?

i don't see the problemxrolleyesx

[skinny_uncle]

So. Ill. is 4-1 with games remaining against UNI, Youngstown and So. Dak. St. They don't have a very tough schedule.


Facing two ranked teams on the road is not exactly a walk in the park.
xeyebrowx

[WestCoastAggie]

the SLC & SoCon are just getting slighted in this poll. And where is Liberity? xwhistlex

[Tribe4SF]

why is W&M ahead of Nova?

The computer only looks at numbers, and W&M is getting big time help from UVA which has beaten UNC and Indiana by a combined 63-10 the past two weeks. CCSU is now 4-1, which is also helping. I'm sure all of us here would rank W&M behind UNH and Nova at this point.

One of the possible scenarios for the CAA would be Villanova and W&M winning out, which could result in a 3-way tie with UNH, and a coin flip for the auto-bid. If UNH and Richmond win out, they would face a coin flip. There are other scenarios that could also result in a coin flip, and a 3-way tie with 10-1 teams would give the committee fits in deciding seeds if UNI and Montana keep rolling. Odds are the CAA teams will make it easier on them, but it would be an interesting situation.

[Tribe4SF]

the SLC & SoCon are just getting slighted in this poll. And where is Liberity? xwhistlex

It's not a poll, it's a computer ranking.

[Green26]

Skinny Uncle, various teams have already played several ranked teams on the road, as well as ranked teams at home, and have more ranked teams coming up.

Besides UNI and perhaps SDS, what tough I-AA games do you think So. Ill. has on the schedule this year?

[GoAgs72]

If UC Davis wins out on the remaining six games, they will have 7 Div 1 wins. The big game will be Cal Poly - both teams on the bubble and fairly evenly matched this year.

[ToTheLeft]

the SLC & SoCon are just getting slighted in this poll. And where is Liberity? xwhistlex

We're just outside the top 30. 31st, to be exact.

[Cocky]

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf


Massey Ratings

1. Richmond 5-0
2. Northern Iowa 5-1
3. Montana 5-0
4. William & Mary 5-1
5. Villanova 5-1
6. New Hampshire 5-0
7. S. Illinois 4-1
8. Elon 5-1
9. S. Dakota St. 4-1
10. Delaware 4-2
11. Jacksonville St. 4-2
12. Massachusetts 3-2
13. N. Arizona 3-2
14. Weber St. 3-3
15. Cal Poly SLO 2-3
16. E. Washington 4-2
17. SF Austin 4-1
18. James Madison 2-3
19. Central Arkansas 4-1
20. Appalachian St. 3-2
21. UC Davis 2-3
22. Montana State 3-2
23. Furman 3-2
24. Harvard 3-1
25. S. Carolina St. 4-1
26. Southern Utah 2-3
27. Holy Cross 4-1
28. Hofstra 3-3
29. Colgate 6-0
30. McNeese St. 3-2


Automatic Bids

Big Sky #3 Montana
Colonial #1 Richmond
MEAC #25 SC State
MVFC #2 Northern Iowa
OVC #11 Jacksonville State
Patriot #27 Holy Cross
SoCon #8 Elon
Southland #17 SF Austin


At-Large

#4 William & Mary (CAA)
#5 Villanova (CAA)
#6 New Hampshire (CAA)
#7 S. Illinois (MVFC)
#9 S. Dakota St. (MVFC)
#10 Delaware (CAA)
#12 Massachusetts (CAA)
#13 N. Arizona (BSC)


Bubble Teams

#14 Weber St. (BSC)
#15 Cal Poly SLO (GWFC)
#16 E. Washington (BSC)
#18 James Madison (CAA)
#20 Appalachian St. (SC)
#21 UC Davis (GWFC)
#22 Montana State (BSC)
#23 Furman (SC)

JSU won't be the auto bid for the OVC.

[WestCoastAggie]

Looking at this computer ranking (thanks Tribe :p) it seems just about right. I still think that EWU will win their Appeal and App. will go 8-3 and be chosen due to their past achievements, which is ok! UMass & Northern Ariz. will be on the outside looking in.

[soccerguy315]

The computer only looks at numbers, and W&M is getting big time help from UVA which has beaten UNC and Indiana by a combined 63-10 the past two weeks. CCSU is now 4-1, which is also helping. I'm sure all of us here would rank W&M behind UNH and Nova at this point.

One of the possible scenarios for the CAA would be Villanova and W&M winning out, which could result in a 3-way tie with UNH, and a coin flip for the auto-bid. If UNH and Richmond win out, they would face a coin flip. There are other scenarios that could also result in a coin flip, and a 3-way tie with 10-1 teams would give the committee fits in deciding seeds if UNI and Montana keep rolling. Odds are the CAA teams will make it easier on them, but it would be an interesting situation.

I guess that kinda makes sense. And it might well turn out that way, but for right now I agree W&M is behind Nova and UNH (and UNH should be ahead of Nova).