Week one potential "upsets" over FBS teams

[bonarae]

Bleacher Report lists two FCS over FBS potential upsets:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/221319-five-college-football-upsets-for-week-one

No. 5: North Dakota State over Iowa State
No. 4: Appalachian State over East Carolina

Are these the most likely upsets by FCS teams in week 1? Or are there more likely upsets than these? Discuss. (But please only cover week 1 games vs. FBS teams, list is here: http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/schedules?year=2009&week=1&season=2&groupId=81)

[Uncle Buck]

If Weber State is as good as advertised, they could have a shot at Wyoming, but better chances would be Villanova over Temple IMO.

[GP91HEN]

Some publications have East Carolina as a potential "dark horse" in the BCS picture and they have the potential to run the table this season

[FCS_Fan]

Well, just because I am a homer, I will go with :

Eastern Kentucky 21
Indiana 17

[Bam]

Wooo! I am with ya FCS_Fan.

[Redbird Ray]

I think all of these sound doable. I would add SIU over Marshall as a possibility. Maybe Richmond over Duke as well.

[NU Hound29]

If Northeastern was a half-way decent team I would say they had a shot over Boston College due to all the losses BC has suffered along with a new coach.

However, I don't think NU is good enough to pull it off, however it might be closer than first thought

[Woof]

I'm not sure what Richmond's got this year, but would think they could compete with Duke.

[bostonspider]

Normally I would think UR would have a great shot at Duke, but this year I don't think so. Duke is rapidly improving under their new coach, and has the added motivation of revenge for 2006's shutout loss to UR. I think the Spiders will play well, but are more focused on Delaware in Week 2.

[catbob]

MSU is gonna beat MSU, that's all I know!

[89Hen]

Villanova over Temple IMO.
IMO too. xnodx

[Uncle Buck]

IMO too. xnodx

I was surprised to not see them on the list. I think this is the most likely upset on the board.

[aust42]

I would have mentioned JMU over Maryland as a potential upset but then remembered that they get slaughtered every time they play a 1A team including last years embarrassing 31-7 loss to Duke. (Although MD only beat them 23-15 in 1999). Maryland typically "plays to their level of competition" and always starts out slow in the beginning of the season. MD barely beat a horrible Delaware team last year 14-7 and on paper is not as good as last years team.

So if JMU can come out balls to the wall and Mickey doesn't cowardly just play for the money and play conservativley (as JMU fans like to point out) I still say JMU can pull this one out.

[EmeryZach]

UMass is going to keep it close against Kansas State.








(Just Kidding)

[Uncle Buck]

I would have mentioned JMU over Maryland as a potential upset but then remembered that they get slaughtered every time they play a 1A team including last years embarrassing 31-7 loss to Duke. (Although MD only beat them 23-15 in 1999). Maryland typically "plays to their level of competition" and always starts out slow in the beginning of the season. MD barely beat a horrible Delaware team last year 14-7 and on paper is not as good as last years team.

So if JMU can come out balls to the wall and Mickey doesn't cowardly just play for the money and play conservativley (as JMU fans like to point out) I still say JMU can pull this one out.

Don't see it happening. JMU, errr, Mickey Mathews doesn't play 1A games to win them, just to get past them.

[89Hen]

So if JMU can come out balls to the wall and Mickey doesn't cowardly just play for the money and play conservativley (as JMU fans like to point out) I still say JMU can pull this one out.
But remember, that conservative play is what kept the Hens in it. If they had trie to open it up, it would have been 31-7. :(

[WMTribe90]

I think WM has a shot against UVA.

[Native]

If Weber State is as good as advertised, they could have a shot at Wyoming, but better chances would be Villanova over Temple IMO.

Hey, Uncle Buck! Weber could win! It could happen!

...Sagarin's numbers says ... xrolleyesxxnodx

[Uncle Buck]

Hey, Uncle Buck! Weber could win! It could happen!

...Sagarin's numbers says ... xrolleyesxxnodx

If you guys are as stacked as people are saying, it could definitely happen. I'll be rooting for you! xthumbsupx

[Native]

If you guys are as stacked as people are saying, it could definitely happen. I'll be rooting for you! xthumbsupx

Why THANK YOU, UncleB!

The new Weber defense has been an unknown quantity but word is that it will be the fastest - and maybe even the best - of the past five years. If they have the skill along with the speed, as well as good coaching and the depth for those fast defenders play on special teams, it should help in taking advantage of Williams' KO average of 67 yards (with the requisite 4+ sec hang time) to establish great field position. They shouldn't be too tired from kickoffs because he hits about a 40% TB rate.

On offense the skill players all return, so they shouldn't need many snaps to get the offensive execution up to full speed. We've also got some great returning O-linemen IF they can stay injury free and keep up their grades. But Mac always seems to pull a rabbit out of his hat, so I think they will probably be ready.

MAN-OH-MAN, 5 September seems a long ways off!

[g-webb1994]

Appy over ECU seems like a logical choice.

I also expect both Citadel (at UNC) and Wofford (at South Florida), to represent the SOCON well that Saturday.

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

Normally I would think UR would have a great shot at Duke, but this year I don't think so. Duke is rapidly improving under their new coach, and has the added motivation of revenge for 2006's shutout loss to UR. I think the Spiders will play well, but are more focused on Delaware in Week 2.


I agree that the Delaware game in Week 2 is the more important game, but there is no reason we cannot beat Duke again. Duke may be better than they were in 2006, but so are we.

[ViennaSpider]

I would love to see one of the three CAA South teams come out with an opening-day victory over the ACC. W&M probably has the best chance. Unfortunately, the deck is pretty much stacked against you, playing in their house with their officials.

[ericsaid]

I hope App can make it a good game but i'll have to go with ECU by 14+.

[bkrownd]

UMass is going to keep it close against Kansas State.

Nah, I don't see UMass running up the score against them. A low double-digit victory over the mildcats is about right.

[McNeese75]

I hope App can make it a good game but i'll have to go with ECU by 14+.

ERIC, where ya been man??? Long time no post :)

Are you going to be at the rock on September 12th?

[SpidersSportsEditor]

Richmond definitely has a chance over Duke. Duke is improving and talented but coming out for their first game as the defending national champs should serve as motivation for the Spiders. UR also just announced that they will be running a fan bus from Richmond to Durham for the game, so the Spider fans should also be out in force, not that that really matters, just an interesting note considering we struggle to draw fans even for home games. In terms of other upsets, App St always has a chance, but I don't see W+M beating UVa, especially not in Charlottesville.

[Gringer1]

I would be surprised if Richmond doesn't beat Duke. Duke is certainly going to play hard to get revenge and to establish a new era of winning, but Richmond is a much more established team. I predict a close one, but Richmond just has the know how that Duke is still lacking.

[zilla]

Coastal over Kent State xthumbsupx

[JMU Newbill]

Duke will beat UR. Maryland will beat JMU. ECU will beat App St. UVA will beat W&M.



I do think Villanova has a shot against Temple.

[Redbird Ray]

Someone mentioned Wofford over USF, that one could be a sleeper.

Win or lose, I bet that Temple/Nova game at the link will be a rowdy atmosphere.

I still think SIU has a legit shot over Marshall.

App St./ECU should be close but I'll take ECU.

Richmond is capable of beating Duke, but the Dukies are better than in 06'.

NDSU had a definite shot at Iowa State.

Oh, yeah, Indiana State over Louisville. xlolx

[Husky Alum]

If Northeastern was a half-way decent team I would say they had a shot over Boston College due to all the losses BC has suffered along with a new coach.

However, I don't think NU is good enough to pull it off, however it might be closer than first thought

NU isn't good enough to beat Hofstra.

We're not going to come close to the Beagles.

42-7 is a reasonable expectation - and they don't know who their QB is yet.

Then again, we don't either.

[NU Hound29]

NU isn't good enough to beat Hofstra.

We're not going to come close to the Beagles.

42-7 is a reasonable expectation - and they don't know who their QB is yet.

Then again, we don't either.

I will bet that its closer than 42-7.

I am not saying NU will win, they won't. However it might be closer to a 15-20 point loss....

[Stricker46]

I will bet that its closer than 42-7.

I am not saying NU will win, they won't. However it might be closer to a 15-20 point loss....



NU does have a QB that has at least practice with the offense for a few years and I here he was very good in high school. NU also has a new offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator, In addition to a lot of players with a lot of game experience this year. I look forward to watching what happens with NU this year. I think the new coordinators are going to make a big impact. I can promise you that the defense will be better than it has been in years and the offense will do a lot better than expected. Play-off’s maybe not, but a lot better than last year definitely!

[Bam]

I like SIU over Marshall. F the Blundering Turds.

[JALMOND]

The only upset I see for Portland State in the first week is myself on the way back from Oregon State. When this Beavers team were healthy last year, they beat USC (and we are definitely not USC). This game could get ugly very quickly.

[tribe_pride]

Duke will beat UR. Maryland will beat JMU. ECU will beat App St. UVA will beat W&M.



I do think Villanova has a shot against Temple.

Agreed. We'll probably stay close in the first half and then lose by 14-20. Not bad, not great.

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

Agreed. We'll probably stay close in the first half and then lose by 14-20. Not bad, not great.

Our experiences in Charlottesville indicate you will probably be playing against 12 out there and not 11. And I'm not talking about the fans.

[aust42]

But remember, that conservative play is what kept the Hens in it. If they had trie to open it up, it would have been 31-7. :(

Probably since Robbie would have thrown 5 interceptions if KC opened it up. But fortunately with a new QB and O-Line we were limited in our play calling and ability to open it up. 2007's Delaware team would have beat MD last year. xnodx

[Uncle Buck]

NU isn't good enough to beat Hofstra.

Thanks! I think? xconfusedxxrotatehx

[Spider]

Spidahs over Dook; will not be an upset......

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Homer pick: NDSU over Iowa State

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Temple returns 17 starters from a team that was very competitve last year. Villanova will have to play very very well to beat the Owls this year. This is not the same Temple from 4 or 5 years ago. Golden has got the program to the point where it should not lose to an FCS team if focused. I'm confident the team will have their complete attention directed at Villanova. Villanova will be very good this year but i think some are over rating them just a bit. By that i mean i don't see them being a top 4 or 5 team come December.

Also ECU should take care of App by a couple scores. Skip will have the Pirates ready to go. ECU should be a Top 25 team this year, perhaps better than Michigan in '07.

History has shown that the odds of thse FCS teams winning is very very low and the odds of beating a team from a BCS league even lower.

[ngineer]

If Weber State is as good as advertised, they could have a shot at Wyoming, but better chances would be Villanova over Temple IMO.

Is the Temple/VU game "week one" or is there an earlier start in late August? And, as for this game, I'm not sure I would call it an "upset"....Most likely win over an FBS imo.

[jstclmet]

Is the Temple/VU game "week one" or is there an earlier start in late August?

9/3 Thu 7:00 @ The Linc. Be There. Phillies have a home game that night also, so plan your trip accordingly.

[wideright82]

Temple returns 17 starters from a team that was very competitve last year. Villanova will have to play very very well to beat the Owls this year. This is not the same Temple from 4 or 5 years ago. Golden has got the program to the point where it should not lose to an FCS team if focused. I'm confident the team will have their complete attention directed at Villanova. Villanova will be very good this year but i think some are over rating them just a bit. By that i mean i don't see them being a top 4 or 5 team come December.

Also ECU should take care of App by a couple scores. Skip will have the Pirates ready to go. ECU should be a Top 25 team this year, perhaps better than Michigan in '07.

History has shown that the odds of thse FCS teams winning is very very low and the odds of beating a team from a BCS league even lower.

When we put up 63 on Lehigh that overrated nonsense will be very apparent. xnodxxlolxxlolxxlolx

[Tribe4SF]

Temple returns 17 starters from a team that was very competitve last year. Villanova will have to play very very well to beat the Owls this year. This is not the same Temple from 4 or 5 years ago. Golden has got the program to the point where it should not lose to an FCS team if focused. I'm confident the team will have their complete attention directed at Villanova. Villanova will be very good this year but i think some are over rating them just a bit. By that i mean i don't see them being a top 4 or 5 team come December.


What do you see that has changed from last year that leads to the belief they will be a lesser team this year? The consensus among CAA opponents is that the Wildcats will be even better this year.

[Cobblestone]

I will bet that its closer than 42-7.

I am not saying NU will win, they won't. However it might be closer to a 15-20 point loss....



I don't think they'll win either but I agree that it could be closer than most might think. For one thing BC has a new coach. Their starting QB got kicked out of school so whoever their starter is, he'll be taking his first game snaps. Their defensive captain is out for the season due to illness. Right now BC looks to be in disarray so there is a chance NU could give them a scare for at least a half. I think the biggest factor will be the depth charts. Also weather will come into play. I've been to games in September at Alumni Stadium and that place is like an oven at that time of the season; no breeze seems to blow in there. BC will have more players to substitute in and out if heat exhaustion becomes an issue.

An upset is not likely but a close game is not out of the question.

[jmufan999]

anyone that "expects" ANY FCS team to beat an FBS team is living in fantasyland. that doesn't mean it won't happen, but EXPECTING it is like expecting to win the lottery today. very, very, very few FCS teams will beat FBS teams this year. probably no more than 3 wins, tops.

if i were guessing, Villanova has a shot. if i were betting, though, i'd go with UNH. 4 straight wins over FBS teams is not a fluke, i don't care who you're playing. that's really, really impressive. especially since they not only beat Army last year (hey, it's still an FBS team one way or another), they embarrassed them. i'd bet on UNH before anyone, but that's mainly because of their past success that obviously gives them confidence in those games. it's HUGE for their tournament resume, i wish we could win one. or even get close, that would be great.

[aust42]

anyone that "expects" ANY FCS team to beat an FBS team is living in fantasyland.

I expect Delaware to beat Navy every year in my fantasy world. 6-6 overall and winning two out of the last three games gives me high expectations.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

What do you see that has changed from last year that leads to the belief they will be a lesser team this year? The consensus among CAA opponents is that the Wildcats will be even better this year.

Talley's teams have never done well with high expectations. Plus, i still believe the 'Cats are still the 2nd or 3rd best team in the CAA this year.

[Tribe4SF]

Talley's teams have never done well with high expectations. Plus, i still believe the 'Cats are still the 2nd or 3rd best team in the CAA this year.

Well I guess last year would be the exception, as I know they had high expectations of themselves, and many (including myself) had them top 10 starting the year. Who in the CAA do you think is better than them going in? Have you really looked at what they have returning?

[Redbirdz]

Another hopeful homer pick: Jacksonville State vs Georgia Tech close in the first half, then lose by 14-21 in second. Jax State is saving up for Florida State the next week.

Last year JSU and Ga. Tech each scored 14 points in the second half but Tech won 41-14.

PS: Our band is better.

[Gringer1]

Well, since Georgia Tech doesn't have a music department, so all of the marchers are just hobbyists, I would hope you're better. As a fellow college marcher from Georgia, I have a lot of respect for the Tech band. They're not doing it because they have to in order to be music majors, they just love marching.

[BEAR]

anyone that "expects" ANY FCS team to beat an FBS team is living in fantasyland. that doesn't mean it won't happen, but EXPECTING it is like expecting to win the lottery today. very, very, very few FCS teams will beat FBS teams this year. probably no more than 3 wins, tops.

if i were guessing, Villanova has a shot. if i were betting, though, i'd go with UNH. 4 straight wins over FBS teams is not a fluke, i don't care who you're playing. that's really, really impressive. especially since they not only beat Army last year (hey, it's still an FBS team one way or another), they embarrassed them. i'd bet on UNH before anyone, but that's mainly because of their past success that obviously gives them confidence in those games. it's HUGE for their tournament resume, i wish we could win one. or even get close, that would be great.

I expect it to happen 10% of the time...and the previous years stats back that up.

I think UCA has a chance to beat Hawaii. They lost 9 starters on defense and 6 on offense, new system by new coach, mass confusion, lions sleeping with lambs etc... Will UCA beat them...due to more scholly players..time zone adjustment..and a crowd of 60,000...probably not..but there's a better than not chance-- about 49%. I do however think my Bears will beat Western Kentucky of the Sun Belch Conference....90% sure of that. So 1 out of the two gives the FCS more wins anyway. Just MHOxthumbsupx

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Well I guess last year would be the exception, as I know they had high expectations of themselves, and many (including myself) had them top 10 starting the year. Who in the CAA do you think is better than them going in? Have you really looked at what they have returning?

Villanova should have a very talented team but i honestly don't believe they will be true national title contenders by December mainly because of their schedule. They could easily have 5 or 6 losses because of it. Games with Temple, William & Mary, New Hampshire, JMU and Delaware are real potential pitfuls and Lehigh and Penn could give the Cats trouble as well.

The other thing is Talley's track record in the playoff. He's done great things for the 'Nova program but he really hasn't had great postseason success. He's 4-7 all time with 1 trip to the semi's that coming in '02.

Who knows maybe Talley breaks through this year and proves to be a true national title type team. Until he does i'll say 'Nova goes 9-4, 3rd in the CAA, and loses in the second round of the playoffs.

[Pantherpower]

The Iowa Hawkeyes are being hyped quite a bit up here, but per usual, I think the fan base is out of touch w/ reality. I won't be surprised to see UNI hang with Iowa and with a few breaks, pull an "ASU".xnodx

[ItsyBitsySpider]

Would love to see UNI pull it off, but let's be real ... I don't care what Iowa's ranking is going into the game. An upset here wouldn't approach what ASU did at Michigan. Iowa does not have nearly the same prestige and tradition. It wouldn't turn the college football world upside down like ASU's upset.