WrenFGun
November 10th, 2008, 12:03 PM
I think most people are on the record as saying that the CAA will get four playoff teams, and I'm in agreement with them. I think five is unlikely given the breakdown of conferences, though it's possible that Elon or Cal Poly could play themselves out of playoff contention. I think it's possible the CAA could get 3 if the committee were to frown on a UNH team that closed the season at 1-2 and not want to take a 4-loss team (Perhaps LaFayette or Holy Cross could be considered as at-large candidates, or maybe Liberty comes back into the discussion, though I think it's unlikely). Still, I think an 8-3 UNH has better position than a 9-2 Liberty (if they upset Elon) or a two-loss LaFayette team.
Anyhow, here's my breakdown.
James Madison-IN. They would clinch the auto-berth with a win over W&M, I believe, but would be in even if they lost their final two games to Towson and William & Mary.
Villanova-IN with a win over Towson or Delaware. Looking at a potential seed with a win over both.
William & Mary-IN with a win over either James Madison or Richmond. They would then have wins over UNH and one of those two teams, which would enough to warrant inclusion. OUT if they lose to both, though I think you have to consider them favorites with Richmond at home. I think the James Madison game will be close, too.
Richmond-IN by beating William & Mary and Delaware. Assuming a William & Mary loss to James Madison (a big leap, the way they're playing, though JMU is obviously the favorite), the game between William & Mary and Richmond will be an elimination game. If William & Mary beats James Madison and then loses to Richmond, all hell will break lose and I'll have no idea what would happen.
Imagine that scenario, with UNH winning out. That would leave the following records: Villanova (9-2), James Madison (9-2), Richmond (9-3), William & Mary (8-3), UNH (9-2, loss to W&M)...what would happen with that hypothetical?
UNH-IN by beating UMass and Maine, LIKELY IN losing to UMass but beating Maine. The CAA North has the potential to go completely bidless if UNH falls to UMass and beats Maine, and William & Mary beats JMU but loses to Richmond. That would put the best four teams in the South, and like I said, the CAA will need a lot of help to get five teams in (like the committee deciding that the fifth option has a better resume than Elon). I think UNH is LIKELY OUT with a win over UMass and a loss to Maine, as Maine would be in over them.
MAINE-IN by beating URI and UNH. 8-3, Red Hot. Out otherwise.
UMass-Need a lot of help, might get a sniff if they win out, UNH beats Maine and Richmond knocks W&M out.
To recap:
IN:
James Madison
Villanova
DRIVER'S SEAT (meaning games at home with deciding factor):
Maine
William and Mary
LIKELY NEED A ROAD WIN TO GET IN:
UNH
Richmond
NEED a LOT OF HELP:
Massachusetts
Curious about others input..Hope this helps people making prognostications.
Anyhow, here's my breakdown.
James Madison-IN. They would clinch the auto-berth with a win over W&M, I believe, but would be in even if they lost their final two games to Towson and William & Mary.
Villanova-IN with a win over Towson or Delaware. Looking at a potential seed with a win over both.
William & Mary-IN with a win over either James Madison or Richmond. They would then have wins over UNH and one of those two teams, which would enough to warrant inclusion. OUT if they lose to both, though I think you have to consider them favorites with Richmond at home. I think the James Madison game will be close, too.
Richmond-IN by beating William & Mary and Delaware. Assuming a William & Mary loss to James Madison (a big leap, the way they're playing, though JMU is obviously the favorite), the game between William & Mary and Richmond will be an elimination game. If William & Mary beats James Madison and then loses to Richmond, all hell will break lose and I'll have no idea what would happen.
Imagine that scenario, with UNH winning out. That would leave the following records: Villanova (9-2), James Madison (9-2), Richmond (9-3), William & Mary (8-3), UNH (9-2, loss to W&M)...what would happen with that hypothetical?
UNH-IN by beating UMass and Maine, LIKELY IN losing to UMass but beating Maine. The CAA North has the potential to go completely bidless if UNH falls to UMass and beats Maine, and William & Mary beats JMU but loses to Richmond. That would put the best four teams in the South, and like I said, the CAA will need a lot of help to get five teams in (like the committee deciding that the fifth option has a better resume than Elon). I think UNH is LIKELY OUT with a win over UMass and a loss to Maine, as Maine would be in over them.
MAINE-IN by beating URI and UNH. 8-3, Red Hot. Out otherwise.
UMass-Need a lot of help, might get a sniff if they win out, UNH beats Maine and Richmond knocks W&M out.
To recap:
IN:
James Madison
Villanova
DRIVER'S SEAT (meaning games at home with deciding factor):
Maine
William and Mary
LIKELY NEED A ROAD WIN TO GET IN:
UNH
Richmond
NEED a LOT OF HELP:
Massachusetts
Curious about others input..Hope this helps people making prognostications.