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November 10th, 2008, 06:54 AM
Here are a few clarifications for who is and who is eligible for the playoff field:
Below, take a look at the prospects of FCS teams that can still entertain realistic playoff hopes. Ranked by their chances of making the 16-team field, as determined by me. Current overall and conference records are in parentheses, and each team’s remaining schedule is listed with a brief synopsis of its chances. The adds of AQ means they received the Autobid or IN means I believe they have already made the field of 16, regardless of how they finish. The rank below is based on being in the tournament.
1. James Madison (8-1, 6-0 CAA)
The Games: W&M (11/15), at Towson (11/22)
Outlook: IN The Dukes are in the playoffs but could still get the autobid if they win out and N. Hampshire loses. Winning out would certainly give the Dukes the #1 seed. One loss could still have them as a Top 4 seed, but no guarantee.
2. Weber State (9-2, 7-0 Big Sky)
The Games: E. Washington (11/22)
Outlook: AQ Weber State took care of business this weekend and got the Autobid for the big sky. A tough game with E. Washington, but winning puts them in consideration for a top 4 seed.
3. South Carolina State (8-2. 6-0 MEAC)
The Games: at Morgan St (11/15), at NC A&T (11/22)
Outlook: AQ I believe that SCSt has captured the Autobid due to some other losses. Now the Bulldogs need to keep winning. The first round opponent still looks to be Wofford or ASU. Either way they still should win one of their last two.
4. Montana (9-1, 5-1 Big Sky)
The Games: Idaho State (11/15), Montana St. (11/22)
Outlook: IN With their only loss to top ranked Weber State, Montana looks to be the 2 team from the big sky. Hard to deny Montana a Top 4 seed, but it seems unlikely that the Big Sky could grab two, it will certainly be discussed. More importantly is the large fan base that will turnout. This makes Montana an easy choice when it comes to money.
5. Appalachian State (8-2, 6-0 Southern)
The Games: Elon (11/15), at Western Carolina (11/22)
Outlook: The Mountaineers are in if they win 1 out of the last 2. A win against Elon this week will secure a tie for the SoCon Title and Autobid, win out and they get a #2 seed. They grab the top seed if JMU falters. Based on their play this year, ASU will need homefield advantage if they hope to reach Chattanooga again.
6. Northern Iowa (8-2, 6-1 MVC)
The Games: at Indiana St (11/15), at S. Utah (11/22)
Outlook: A 10-2 regular season record looks to be a lock with and a potential top 4 seed but a down year in the MVC could lead to no seed at all. Either way must win win 1 of its last two to secure a playoff berth.
7. . Villanova (7-2, 5-1 CAA)
The Games: Towson (11/15), at Delaware (11/22)
Outlook: Wow the CAA has so many possibilities but Villanova looks to be a lock. If they win this week, they can secure a bid. Losing one still puts them in the field.
8. Richmond (7-3, 7-1 CAA)
The Games: Delaware (11/15), at W&M (11/22)
Outlook: The Spiders should be in good shape but must win out, based on the opponents I think they are looking good. If Richmond loses either of the last two – they will miss the playoffs . Should Richmond win out they could be in discussion to host a first round game.
9. Elon (8-2, 6-1 Southern)
The Games: at ASU (11/15), at Liberty (11/22)
Outlook: Elon slides in ahead of some other SoCon Teams. The reason is the remaining schedule, I believe the Phoenix can beat both Liberty, so a lost to ASU will not hurt, a win could give them the force a 3 way tie in the SoCon, they could win the Autobid. However a first round trip to JMU looks likely, ouch!
10. Wofford (7-2, 5-1 Southern)
The Games: at Samford (11/15), Furman (11/22)
Outlook: Wofford continues to navigate their tough year end schedule. They must win one of the last two to secure a playoff berth, however they may be eaiser said than done, Samford has been the surprise of the SoCon this year and will put the Terriers to the test, then Furman. Wofford can still can win the SoCon Autobid, and they will be pulling hard for Elon this weekend as that will force a potential tie in the SoCon.
11. Colgate (8-2, 4-0 Patriot)
The Games: Holy Cross (11/22)
Outlook: The showdown with Holy Cross will determine the outcome of the Patriot, win and you are in with the Autobid. Otherwise a loss will most likely keep them out of the playoffs.
12. Northwestern State (6-4, 3-2 Southland)
The Games: McNeese St (11/15), at SFA (11/22)
Outlook: Thanks to Central Ark for being playoff ineligible – this conference race is a bit of a mess – even with losing this weekend NWSTN St has the inside track – the McNeese St game should provide the winner.
13. Southern Illinois (7-2, 5-1 MVC)
The Games: SDSt (11/15), at Illinois St (11/22)
Outlook: The MVC is not having a great year, but S. Ill still can make the playoffs by winning out, a loss could leave them wondering about their playoff future. A tough game coming up this week.
14. New Hampshire (7-2, 4-2 CAA)
The Games: UMASS (11/15), at Maine (11/22)
Outlook: N Hampshire have put themselves in a bind, they may need to win both of their final games to get a berth. They will find an upset minded UMASS and an upstart Maine team – this schedule is a tall task. If NH loses two more times they are out, lose once and it will put them in a tough spot.
15. Tennessee State (8-2, 5-1 OVC)
The Games: at Jacksonville St (11/15), at Murray St (11/22)
Outlook: The OVC will be a one bid this conference. Right now Tenn State has the inside track, but a tough game this weekend could bring others back in the race. Win out and you clinch the title..
16. Cal Poly (7-1, 2-0 Great West)
The Games: UC Davis (11/15), at Wisconsin (11/22)
Outlook: Last week I did not like Cal Poly’s chances and much grief came my way. Let me say that I believe they belong in the field, but things don’t always go as planned. Agreed with their ranking it would seem impossible to leave them out. They will lose to Wisconsin, but UC Davis could provide a test. For the moment I see them in the playoffs based on other movement around the country, of course they need to win this week.
17. Layfayette (7-2, 3-1 Patriot)
The Games: Holy Cross (11/15), Lehigh (11/22)
Outlook: I still like the looks of this conference and I feel that if Layfayette can win out – it steals a bid from the CAA, MVC or SoCon. A surprise entry in 2005 it could work out again in their favor. For this to happen some other schools need to lose.
18. Maine (7-3, 4-2 CAA)
The Games: at R. Island (11/15), N. Hampshire (11/22)
Outlook: A huge victory this weekend and the schedule looks to be good for another week. The game at NH may determine the final entry from the CAA. Maine controls their fate.
19. Holy Cross (6-3, 4-0 Patriot)
The Games: Layfayette (11/15), at Colgate (11/22)
Outlook: The toughest remaining schedule in the Patriot puts their chances at the bottom, however winning out – puts them in the playoffs and they snag the Autobid. If they win out they will help the rest of the at large teams as it will leave Colgate and Layfayette out of any post season discussion.
20. McNeese State (6-3, 3-2 Southland)
The Games: at N’western St (11/15), at Central Ark (11/22)
Outlook: Still alive for the title, but winning out is a must and this schedule is about to turn ugly! Showdown this week with NWSt should help clarify this race.
21. Furman (7-3, 5-2 Southern)
The Games: Ga Southern (11/15), at Wofford (11/22)
Outlook: Two monster games remain for Furman – but they can win and if they do they will get into the playoffs. This is perhaps the most dangerous team on the bubble.
25. William & Mary (7-3, 4-2 CAA)
The Games: at JMU (11/15), Richmond (11/22)
Outlook: Just like Maine, they must win out, this schedule just looks too tough.
22. Eastern Kentucky (6-3, 5-1 OVC)
The Games: Murray St (11/15), at Tenn-Martin (11/22)
Outlook: First EKU needs to win out and second they need some help from others but they are still alive for the Autobid
23. Tennessee Martin (7-3, 5-1 OVC)
The Games: at SE MO St (11/15), EKU (11/22)
Outlook: They are still alive for the AB – but things don’t look so good. The OVC will only get one team into the field, TM’s chances are fading! Great job this weekend at Auburn – but they need to win and some help!
24. Liberty (8-2, 3-0 Big South)
The Games: Gardner Webb (11/15), Elon (11/22)
Outlook: A win in the final 2 could keep them in discussions – but they need lots of help!
25. Praire View (8-1, 6-1 SWAC)
The Games: Alcorn St (11/15)
Outlook: Everyone around the country needs to lose multiple times
26. Bethune Cookman (7-2, 4-2 MEAC)
The Games: Howard (11/15), Florida A&M (11/22)
Outlook: Still with an outside chance – but must win each of their remaining games.
27. South Dakota State (6-4, 5-1 MVC)
The Games: at S. Ill (11/15), at NDSt (11/22)
Outlook: The Jackrabbits will stay in the discussion for one more week as they still could win the AB. However their remaining schedule is very difficult.
Below are my current projections for the I-AA playoff field and possible match-ups, based on expectations for the remaining games this season.
Automatic Bids: Patriot: Colgate, A10: JMU, Big Sky: Weber State, Southland: N’wstern State, Southern: ASU, Gateway: Northern Iowa, MEAC: SCSt, OVC: Tenn State
At-large: Elon, Cal Poly, Wofford, S. Illinois, Montana, Maine, Richmond, and Villanova.
Seeds: Northern Iowa, JMU, Weber State, Appalachain State.
Last In: Cal Poly and Maine
Last Out: Layfayette, N Hampshire and W&M
Bracket I: Elon at No. 1 JMU; Colgate at Villanova;
Cal Poly at No. 4 Weber State; N’wstn at Montana
Bracket II: Tenn State at No. 2 ASU; SCSt at Wofford ;
Maine at No. 3 N. Iowa; Richmond at S. Illinois.
Below, take a look at the prospects of FCS teams that can still entertain realistic playoff hopes. Ranked by their chances of making the 16-team field, as determined by me. Current overall and conference records are in parentheses, and each team’s remaining schedule is listed with a brief synopsis of its chances. The adds of AQ means they received the Autobid or IN means I believe they have already made the field of 16, regardless of how they finish. The rank below is based on being in the tournament.
1. James Madison (8-1, 6-0 CAA)
The Games: W&M (11/15), at Towson (11/22)
Outlook: IN The Dukes are in the playoffs but could still get the autobid if they win out and N. Hampshire loses. Winning out would certainly give the Dukes the #1 seed. One loss could still have them as a Top 4 seed, but no guarantee.
2. Weber State (9-2, 7-0 Big Sky)
The Games: E. Washington (11/22)
Outlook: AQ Weber State took care of business this weekend and got the Autobid for the big sky. A tough game with E. Washington, but winning puts them in consideration for a top 4 seed.
3. South Carolina State (8-2. 6-0 MEAC)
The Games: at Morgan St (11/15), at NC A&T (11/22)
Outlook: AQ I believe that SCSt has captured the Autobid due to some other losses. Now the Bulldogs need to keep winning. The first round opponent still looks to be Wofford or ASU. Either way they still should win one of their last two.
4. Montana (9-1, 5-1 Big Sky)
The Games: Idaho State (11/15), Montana St. (11/22)
Outlook: IN With their only loss to top ranked Weber State, Montana looks to be the 2 team from the big sky. Hard to deny Montana a Top 4 seed, but it seems unlikely that the Big Sky could grab two, it will certainly be discussed. More importantly is the large fan base that will turnout. This makes Montana an easy choice when it comes to money.
5. Appalachian State (8-2, 6-0 Southern)
The Games: Elon (11/15), at Western Carolina (11/22)
Outlook: The Mountaineers are in if they win 1 out of the last 2. A win against Elon this week will secure a tie for the SoCon Title and Autobid, win out and they get a #2 seed. They grab the top seed if JMU falters. Based on their play this year, ASU will need homefield advantage if they hope to reach Chattanooga again.
6. Northern Iowa (8-2, 6-1 MVC)
The Games: at Indiana St (11/15), at S. Utah (11/22)
Outlook: A 10-2 regular season record looks to be a lock with and a potential top 4 seed but a down year in the MVC could lead to no seed at all. Either way must win win 1 of its last two to secure a playoff berth.
7. . Villanova (7-2, 5-1 CAA)
The Games: Towson (11/15), at Delaware (11/22)
Outlook: Wow the CAA has so many possibilities but Villanova looks to be a lock. If they win this week, they can secure a bid. Losing one still puts them in the field.
8. Richmond (7-3, 7-1 CAA)
The Games: Delaware (11/15), at W&M (11/22)
Outlook: The Spiders should be in good shape but must win out, based on the opponents I think they are looking good. If Richmond loses either of the last two – they will miss the playoffs . Should Richmond win out they could be in discussion to host a first round game.
9. Elon (8-2, 6-1 Southern)
The Games: at ASU (11/15), at Liberty (11/22)
Outlook: Elon slides in ahead of some other SoCon Teams. The reason is the remaining schedule, I believe the Phoenix can beat both Liberty, so a lost to ASU will not hurt, a win could give them the force a 3 way tie in the SoCon, they could win the Autobid. However a first round trip to JMU looks likely, ouch!
10. Wofford (7-2, 5-1 Southern)
The Games: at Samford (11/15), Furman (11/22)
Outlook: Wofford continues to navigate their tough year end schedule. They must win one of the last two to secure a playoff berth, however they may be eaiser said than done, Samford has been the surprise of the SoCon this year and will put the Terriers to the test, then Furman. Wofford can still can win the SoCon Autobid, and they will be pulling hard for Elon this weekend as that will force a potential tie in the SoCon.
11. Colgate (8-2, 4-0 Patriot)
The Games: Holy Cross (11/22)
Outlook: The showdown with Holy Cross will determine the outcome of the Patriot, win and you are in with the Autobid. Otherwise a loss will most likely keep them out of the playoffs.
12. Northwestern State (6-4, 3-2 Southland)
The Games: McNeese St (11/15), at SFA (11/22)
Outlook: Thanks to Central Ark for being playoff ineligible – this conference race is a bit of a mess – even with losing this weekend NWSTN St has the inside track – the McNeese St game should provide the winner.
13. Southern Illinois (7-2, 5-1 MVC)
The Games: SDSt (11/15), at Illinois St (11/22)
Outlook: The MVC is not having a great year, but S. Ill still can make the playoffs by winning out, a loss could leave them wondering about their playoff future. A tough game coming up this week.
14. New Hampshire (7-2, 4-2 CAA)
The Games: UMASS (11/15), at Maine (11/22)
Outlook: N Hampshire have put themselves in a bind, they may need to win both of their final games to get a berth. They will find an upset minded UMASS and an upstart Maine team – this schedule is a tall task. If NH loses two more times they are out, lose once and it will put them in a tough spot.
15. Tennessee State (8-2, 5-1 OVC)
The Games: at Jacksonville St (11/15), at Murray St (11/22)
Outlook: The OVC will be a one bid this conference. Right now Tenn State has the inside track, but a tough game this weekend could bring others back in the race. Win out and you clinch the title..
16. Cal Poly (7-1, 2-0 Great West)
The Games: UC Davis (11/15), at Wisconsin (11/22)
Outlook: Last week I did not like Cal Poly’s chances and much grief came my way. Let me say that I believe they belong in the field, but things don’t always go as planned. Agreed with their ranking it would seem impossible to leave them out. They will lose to Wisconsin, but UC Davis could provide a test. For the moment I see them in the playoffs based on other movement around the country, of course they need to win this week.
17. Layfayette (7-2, 3-1 Patriot)
The Games: Holy Cross (11/15), Lehigh (11/22)
Outlook: I still like the looks of this conference and I feel that if Layfayette can win out – it steals a bid from the CAA, MVC or SoCon. A surprise entry in 2005 it could work out again in their favor. For this to happen some other schools need to lose.
18. Maine (7-3, 4-2 CAA)
The Games: at R. Island (11/15), N. Hampshire (11/22)
Outlook: A huge victory this weekend and the schedule looks to be good for another week. The game at NH may determine the final entry from the CAA. Maine controls their fate.
19. Holy Cross (6-3, 4-0 Patriot)
The Games: Layfayette (11/15), at Colgate (11/22)
Outlook: The toughest remaining schedule in the Patriot puts their chances at the bottom, however winning out – puts them in the playoffs and they snag the Autobid. If they win out they will help the rest of the at large teams as it will leave Colgate and Layfayette out of any post season discussion.
20. McNeese State (6-3, 3-2 Southland)
The Games: at N’western St (11/15), at Central Ark (11/22)
Outlook: Still alive for the title, but winning out is a must and this schedule is about to turn ugly! Showdown this week with NWSt should help clarify this race.
21. Furman (7-3, 5-2 Southern)
The Games: Ga Southern (11/15), at Wofford (11/22)
Outlook: Two monster games remain for Furman – but they can win and if they do they will get into the playoffs. This is perhaps the most dangerous team on the bubble.
25. William & Mary (7-3, 4-2 CAA)
The Games: at JMU (11/15), Richmond (11/22)
Outlook: Just like Maine, they must win out, this schedule just looks too tough.
22. Eastern Kentucky (6-3, 5-1 OVC)
The Games: Murray St (11/15), at Tenn-Martin (11/22)
Outlook: First EKU needs to win out and second they need some help from others but they are still alive for the Autobid
23. Tennessee Martin (7-3, 5-1 OVC)
The Games: at SE MO St (11/15), EKU (11/22)
Outlook: They are still alive for the AB – but things don’t look so good. The OVC will only get one team into the field, TM’s chances are fading! Great job this weekend at Auburn – but they need to win and some help!
24. Liberty (8-2, 3-0 Big South)
The Games: Gardner Webb (11/15), Elon (11/22)
Outlook: A win in the final 2 could keep them in discussions – but they need lots of help!
25. Praire View (8-1, 6-1 SWAC)
The Games: Alcorn St (11/15)
Outlook: Everyone around the country needs to lose multiple times
26. Bethune Cookman (7-2, 4-2 MEAC)
The Games: Howard (11/15), Florida A&M (11/22)
Outlook: Still with an outside chance – but must win each of their remaining games.
27. South Dakota State (6-4, 5-1 MVC)
The Games: at S. Ill (11/15), at NDSt (11/22)
Outlook: The Jackrabbits will stay in the discussion for one more week as they still could win the AB. However their remaining schedule is very difficult.
Below are my current projections for the I-AA playoff field and possible match-ups, based on expectations for the remaining games this season.
Automatic Bids: Patriot: Colgate, A10: JMU, Big Sky: Weber State, Southland: N’wstern State, Southern: ASU, Gateway: Northern Iowa, MEAC: SCSt, OVC: Tenn State
At-large: Elon, Cal Poly, Wofford, S. Illinois, Montana, Maine, Richmond, and Villanova.
Seeds: Northern Iowa, JMU, Weber State, Appalachain State.
Last In: Cal Poly and Maine
Last Out: Layfayette, N Hampshire and W&M
Bracket I: Elon at No. 1 JMU; Colgate at Villanova;
Cal Poly at No. 4 Weber State; N’wstn at Montana
Bracket II: Tenn State at No. 2 ASU; SCSt at Wofford ;
Maine at No. 3 N. Iowa; Richmond at S. Illinois.