Lehigh Football Nation
November 7th, 2005, 09:56 AM
Here's my thoughts as to "who's in, who's out" of the I-AA playoffs as of this moment:
Autobids: App St., Lehigh, E. Illinois or Jax St., Hampton, UNH, Montana, Nicholls St., SIU
At-large: UMass, Georgia Southern, Furman, Cal Poly, Montana St., Texas St., Youngstown St., Western Kentucky
Bubble teams (in order):
Coastal Car
Richmond
Colgate
South Carolina St.
Towson
I think what the bubble teams are clearly rooting for is Montana to win out. That gives only one bid from the Big Sky.
Is Texas St. in, even with a loss in their last two games? Nicholls and McNeese both play the last week of the year. Assuming both win next week, would either have a shot at a playoff spot if one goes 6-3? It looks to me like the Southland is very strong for 2 bids. Either Nicholls gets the autobid and Texas St. is at-large, or Nicholls loses to McNeese, which gives Texas St. the title and maybe an at-large bid for McNeese (with an OOC win versus Georgia Southern.) So, if you're a bubble team, you're rooting for Stephen F. Austin and SeLa, basically.
You're also going to be huge Army and Hofstra fans closing out the year, since that's the only way UMass could be eliminated (and in the process making the A-10 a single-bid conference).
In the Gateway, it's a fascinating situation. It's a possibility that you could only have 1 bid or 3. I'd guess you're rooting for the following situation: SIU loses to UNI and North Dakota St.; WKU beats YSU, and then loses to Florida International. That makes the Gateway a 1-bid conference.
The SoCon seems pretty set, although you're huge Western Carolina fans versus App St. That would give the SoCon 2 bids instead of 3.
Finally, all at-large teams are huge Idaho St. fans on November 19th versus Cal Poly.
Richmond, should they win out, would appear to be in a great situation to get a spot. They have quality wins and a strong conference. Richmond/Towson this weekend would appear to be a playoff game, but I think Towson is weaker than even South Carolina St. for an at-large bid. I think they're the next team in - granted, if they win out.
Coastal and Colgate to me are huge x-factors. Colgate has those awful early-season losses, but a win against UMass. Coastal has a bad loss to App St., but a win over SC St. Both could be in consideration, or completely off the radar. I'm finding myself thinking, what do voters think about Colgate? Are they below Richmond, Towson, SC St, and Coastal? Or are they in the middle? There would seem to be a great shot for a "middle team" to make the field, but they would need help.
SC St. at 9-2 needs help in my mind, but if they win out and 3 of the current contenders fall out of contention, I think they're in. There's even a chance they would be in over Coastal as well IMO, and if Richmond falters they may even be next in line.
Towson also needs to win out and get a lot of help. I put them behind Coastal, Colgate and SC St. due to their lack of a quality wins.
Autobids: App St., Lehigh, E. Illinois or Jax St., Hampton, UNH, Montana, Nicholls St., SIU
At-large: UMass, Georgia Southern, Furman, Cal Poly, Montana St., Texas St., Youngstown St., Western Kentucky
Bubble teams (in order):
Coastal Car
Richmond
Colgate
South Carolina St.
Towson
I think what the bubble teams are clearly rooting for is Montana to win out. That gives only one bid from the Big Sky.
Is Texas St. in, even with a loss in their last two games? Nicholls and McNeese both play the last week of the year. Assuming both win next week, would either have a shot at a playoff spot if one goes 6-3? It looks to me like the Southland is very strong for 2 bids. Either Nicholls gets the autobid and Texas St. is at-large, or Nicholls loses to McNeese, which gives Texas St. the title and maybe an at-large bid for McNeese (with an OOC win versus Georgia Southern.) So, if you're a bubble team, you're rooting for Stephen F. Austin and SeLa, basically.
You're also going to be huge Army and Hofstra fans closing out the year, since that's the only way UMass could be eliminated (and in the process making the A-10 a single-bid conference).
In the Gateway, it's a fascinating situation. It's a possibility that you could only have 1 bid or 3. I'd guess you're rooting for the following situation: SIU loses to UNI and North Dakota St.; WKU beats YSU, and then loses to Florida International. That makes the Gateway a 1-bid conference.
The SoCon seems pretty set, although you're huge Western Carolina fans versus App St. That would give the SoCon 2 bids instead of 3.
Finally, all at-large teams are huge Idaho St. fans on November 19th versus Cal Poly.
Richmond, should they win out, would appear to be in a great situation to get a spot. They have quality wins and a strong conference. Richmond/Towson this weekend would appear to be a playoff game, but I think Towson is weaker than even South Carolina St. for an at-large bid. I think they're the next team in - granted, if they win out.
Coastal and Colgate to me are huge x-factors. Colgate has those awful early-season losses, but a win against UMass. Coastal has a bad loss to App St., but a win over SC St. Both could be in consideration, or completely off the radar. I'm finding myself thinking, what do voters think about Colgate? Are they below Richmond, Towson, SC St, and Coastal? Or are they in the middle? There would seem to be a great shot for a "middle team" to make the field, but they would need help.
SC St. at 9-2 needs help in my mind, but if they win out and 3 of the current contenders fall out of contention, I think they're in. There's even a chance they would be in over Coastal as well IMO, and if Richmond falters they may even be next in line.
Towson also needs to win out and get a lot of help. I put them behind Coastal, Colgate and SC St. due to their lack of a quality wins.