Playoff Prognostications - 10/19

[TexasTerror]

A friendly reminder -- do this just to spur discussion and while you guys are going to rip me apart, I continue to be willing to give it a try. Pairings were very tough this week, especially since I have FIVE teams from out west (3 Big Sky, 1 Southland, 1 GWFC). I wanted a Cal Poly-Montana rematch, so I gave myself one. ;)

Auto-Bids
Big Sky: Northern Arizona
CAA: James Madison
MEAC: Hampton
MVFC: Southern Illinois
OVC: Tennessee-Martin
Patriot: Lafayette
SoCon: Wofford
SLC: McNeese State

At-Large
1) Montana (Big Sky)
2) Cal Poly (Great West)
3) New Hampshire (CAA)
4) Villanova (CAA)
5) Weber State (Big Sky)
6) Northern Iowa (MVFC)
7) Elon (SoCon)
8) Appalachian State (SoCon)

Hampton at (1) James Madison
Villanova at Northern Iowa

Weber State at New Hampshire
McNeese St ate (4) Northern Arizona

Lafayette at (3) Wofford
Elon at Southern Illinois

Tennessee-Martin at (2) Appalachian State
Cal Poly at Montana

[th0m]

Looks pretty good. Don't think they'll put all 3 CAA teams in one bracket, and all 3 Socon teams in the other bracket though.

[TexasTerror]

Looks pretty good. Don't think they'll put all 3 CAA teams in one bracket, and all 3 Socon teams in the other bracket though.

I don't think so either -- but I was having loads of problems with the abundance of west teams. Caused all sorts of problems and I tried "regionalization" (yes, not a word) to some degree...

[th0m]

Well there's an easy way to get rid of that :p Don't select 3 Big Sky teams, and pair the SLC winner and CP with the 2 Big Sky teams ;)

[uofmman1122]

I'll throw in my own. xwhistlex

Auto-Bids
Big Sky: Weber State
CAA: James Madison
MEAC: Hampton
MVFC: Northern Iowa
OVC: Tennessee State
Patriot: Lafayette
SoCon: Appalachian State
SLC: McNeese State

At-Large
1) Montana (Big Sky)
2) Cal Poly (Great West)
3) Villanova (CAA)
4) Elon (SoCon)
5) Southern Illinois (MVFC)
6) Northern Arizona (Big Sky)
7) Richmond (CAA)
8) Wofford (SoCon)

Matchups (Winners in Bold):

Hampton at (1) James Madison
Wofford at Northern Iowa

Villanova at Weber State
Tennessee State at (4) Appalachian State

Northern Arizona at (3) Cal Poly
Richmond at Elon

Lafayette at (2) Montana
Southern Illinois at McNeese State

xcoffeex

[TexasTerror]

I'll throw in my own. xwhistlex

Auto-Bids
Big Sky: Weber State
CAA: James Madison
MEAC: Hampton
MVFC: Northern Iowa
OVC: Tennessee State
Patriot: Lafayette
SoCon: Appalachian State
SLC: McNeese State

At-Large
1) Montana (Big Sky)
2) Cal Poly (Great West)
3) Villanova (CAA)
4) Elon (SoCon)
5) Southern Illinois (MVFC)
6) Northern Arizona (Big Sky)
7) Richmond (CAA)
8) Wofford (SoCon)

Matchups (Winners in Bold):

Hampton at (1) James Madison
Wofford at Northern Iowa

Villanova at Weber State
Tennessee State at (4) Appalachian State

Northern Arizona at (3) Cal Poly
Richmond at Elon

Lafayette at (2) Montana
Southern Illinois at McNeese State

xcoffeex

Montana gets a seed over the team that won their conference? Guess we'll see if that plays out...gotta love prognostications!

[uofmman1122]

Montana gets a seed over the team that won their conference? Guess we'll see if that plays out...gotta love prognostications!An 11-1 Montana gets a seed. Hell, a 10-2 Montana has a good chance of getting a seed. xnodx

Besides, Weber could lose to EWU or NAU and still win the auto, even if Montana wins out, and would have a lower record.

NAU @ UM and WSU vs. NAU are going to (most likely) be the championship games. Unless some other teams throw a wrench in there somewhere. WSU did not look as stellar vs. UNC.

[danefan]

I'm pretty sure Liberty has really been knocked out of the discussion.

I guess if they beat Elon by a huge margin and Elon keeps winning - maybe. But that isn't looking too likely now.

[BeauFoster]

TT, I like your bracket for one reason only...Montana gets to travel to Boone in the second round (provided both teams win 1st rounders) and we get payback, on our turf!

[uofmman1122]

TT, I like your bracket for one reason only...Montana gets to travel to Boone in the second round (provided both teams win 1st rounders) and we get payback, on our turf!I wouldn't count on it. Also according to his bracket, we play Cal Poly again, and I don't think we can beat them twice. :(

[jmu_duke07]

A friendly reminder -- do this just to spur discussion and while you guys are going to rip me apart, I continue to be willing to give it a try. Pairings were very tough this week, especially since I have FIVE teams from out west (3 Big Sky, 1 Southland, 1 GWFC). I wanted a Cal Poly-Montana rematch, so I gave myself one. ;)

Auto-Bids
Big Sky: Northern Arizona
CAA: James Madison
MEAC: Hampton
MVFC: Southern Illinois
OVC: Tennessee-Martin
Patriot: Lafayette
SoCon: Wofford
SLC: McNeese State

At-Large
1) Montana (Big Sky)
2) Cal Poly (Great West)
3) New Hampshire (CAA)
4) Villanova (CAA)
5) Weber State (Big Sky)
6) Northern Iowa (MVFC)
7) Elon (SoCon)
8) Appalachian State (SoCon)

Hampton at (1) James Madison
Villanova at Northern Iowa

Weber State at New Hampshire
McNeese St ate (4) Northern Arizona

Lafayette at (3) Wofford
Elon at Southern Illinois

Tennessee-Martin at (2) Appalachian State
Cal Poly at Montana

I don't think 2 socon teams will have seeds... You may need to switch Villanova and Wofford.

[PaladinFan]

Theres a very likely senario where Furman, App, Wofford, and Elon could all finish at 9-3 or better.

If Furman can upset either App or Wofford (not a completely unreasonable scenario) they would then have to beat both Samford and GSU to go 9-3. Can you really leave that team out?

[SeattleGriz]

I wouldn't count on it. Also according to his bracket, we play Cal Poly again, and I don't think we can beat them twice. :(

Agreed. That is the one reason TT's bracket stinks! Other than that, its wonderful. xlolx

[SeattleGriz]

I'll throw in my own. xwhistlex


Lafayette at (2) Montana


Wouldn't that be nice. To see someone different in the first round. Other than last year, it seems as if we either start with Cal Poly, or Northwestern St.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

I'm curious as to why you switched from Elon to Wofford on your SoCon AQ pick? Wofford still has to play Elon, App. Furman, and The Citadel. Elon only has Wofford, App., and Western Carolina left.

[Pauly LB]

A friendly reminder -- do this just to spur discussion and while you guys are going to rip me apart, I continue to be willing to give it a try. Pairings were very tough this week, especially since I have FIVE teams from out west (3 Big Sky, 1 Southland, 1 GWFC). I wanted a Cal Poly-Montana rematch, so I gave myself one. ;)

Auto-Bids
Big Sky: Northern Arizona
CAA: James Madison
MEAC: Hampton
MVFC: Southern Illinois
OVC: Tennessee-Martin
Patriot: Lafayette
SoCon: Wofford
SLC: McNeese State

At-Large
1) Montana (Big Sky)
2) Cal Poly (Great West)
3) New Hampshire (CAA)
4) Villanova (CAA)
5) Weber State (Big Sky)
6) Northern Iowa (MVFC)
7) Elon (SoCon)
8) Appalachian State (SoCon)

Hampton at (1) James Madison
Villanova at Northern Iowa

Weber State at New Hampshire
McNeese St ate (4) Northern Arizona

Lafayette at (3) Wofford
Elon at Southern Illinois

Tennessee-Martin at (2) Appalachian State
Cal Poly at Montana

This looks good, however, the matchup that really needs to happen is Cal Poly at McNeese State. For those with short memories, this is the game that was cancelled because of Hurricane Ike.

[McNeeserocket]

This looks good, however, the matchup that really needs to happen is Cal Poly at McNeese State. For those with short memories, this is the game that was cancelled because of Hurricane Ike.

I agree. If it plays out that both McNeese and Cal Poly get into the playoffs, then they should be paired. I don't think Montana would be paired with Cal Poly first round as I seem to remember that the committee would not pair two teams that played in the regular season in the first round. I am not sure who Montana would play as they wouldn't pair them with a conference member first round either.

[RazorEdge19]

I agree. If it plays out that both McNeese and Cal Poly get into the playoffs, then they should be paired. I don't think Montana would be paired with Cal Poly first round as I seem to remember that the committee would not pair two teams that played in the regular season in the first round. I am not sure who Montana would play as they wouldn't pair them with a conference member first round either.

Maybe Wofford will travel to Wa-Griz for the second straight year...

[SeattleGriz]

Maybe Wofford will travel to Wa-Griz for the second straight year...

That would be great. I just wished we played more option teams out here to prepare.

[Pauly LB]

I agree. If it plays out that both McNeese and Cal Poly get into the playoffs, then they should be paired. I don't think Montana would be paired with Cal Poly first round as I seem to remember that the committee would not pair two teams that played in the regular season in the first round. I am not sure who Montana would play as they wouldn't pair them with a conference member first round either.

There is one thing that could change as a result of the team records and that is that rather than McNeese State hosting the playoff game it could end up at Cal Poly. That would be ironic since the McNeese State Athletic Director supposedly was offered the opportunity to play the game that was cancelled either at Cal Poly or a neutral site. Regardless, this matchup makes a lot of sense.

[uofmman1122]

I agree. If it plays out that both McNeese and Cal Poly get into the playoffs, then they should be paired. I don't think Montana would be paired with Cal Poly first round as I seem to remember that the committee would not pair two teams that played in the regular season in the first round. I am not sure who Montana would play as they wouldn't pair them with a conference member first round either.In 2005, Montana played Cal Poly in the regular season, and won, then hosted them in the first round and lost. (Probably our worst playoff loss in a while)

[Pauly LB]

I agree. If it plays out that both McNeese and Cal Poly get into the playoffs, then they should be paired. I don't think Montana would be paired with Cal Poly first round as I seem to remember that the committee would not pair two teams that played in the regular season in the first round. I am not sure who Montana would play as they wouldn't pair them with a conference member first round either.

Actually this is NOT true as this is exactly what happened in 2005 when Cal Poly made their first (and only) playoff appearance. Cal Poly had lost to Montana 36 - 27 during the regular season in a non-conference game and then they beat Montana 35 - 21 in the first round of the playoffs.

I do think that the playoff committee likes to pair Montana with Cal Poly as they are a bit closer in proximity so there is less travel plus Cal Poly and Montana lately are a great matchup.

[mainejeff]

I think that one of the really interesting playoff chases to watch is the CAA at-large #3 (and possibly #4). Richmond, William & Mary, UNH, UMass, and Maine are the 5 teams vying for that spot(s). Here are their remaining schedules:

Richmond (5-3)

Georgetown
at Hofstra
Delaware
at William & Mary

William & Mary (4-2)

URI
at Towson
Northeastern
at JMU
Richmond

UNH (5-1)

Towson
Hofstra
at Villanova
UMass
at Maine

UMass (4-3)

Bryant
at URI
Maine
at UNH
Hofstra

Maine (4-3)

Northeastern
Iona
at URI
at UMass
UNH


Based on these schedules, here are my record predictions:

Richmond 9-3
William & Mary 7-4
UNH 7-4
UMass 8-4
Maine 9-3

If these predictions hold, I think both Richmond and Maine will join JMU and Villanova from the CAA in the playoffs.

[Ronbo]

Here's how Montana can get the auto bid. NAU needs to beat Weber State at home. Montana needs to beat NAU at home. Both look very doable. Three way tie for the Big Sky. 1st tie breaker doesn't work so 2nd tie breaker goes into effect. Season record. If Montana wins out they are 11-1 with the auto bid if Weber loses to NAU. If Weber wins at NAU I don't see how Montana can win the auto bid but we could still win out and go 11-1.

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

I think that one of the really interesting playoff chases to watch is the CAA at-large #3 (and possibly #4). Richmond, William & Mary, UNH, UMass, and Maine are the 5 teams vying for that spot(s). Here are their remaining schedules:

Richmond (5-3)

Georgetown
at Hofstra
Delaware
at William & Mary

William & Mary (4-2)

URI
at Towson
Northeastern
at JMU
Richmond

UNH (5-1)

Towson
Hofstra
at Villanova
UMass
at Maine

UMass (4-3)

Bryant
at URI
Maine
at UNH
Hofstra

Maine (4-3)

Northeastern
Iona
at URI
at UMass
UNH


Based on these schedules, here are my record predictions:

Richmond 9-3
William & Mary 7-4
UNH 7-4
UMass 8-4
Maine 9-3

If these predictions hold, I think both Richmond and Maine will join JMU and Villanova from the CAA in the playoffs.

xhomerx

[dbackjon]

I think that one of the really interesting playoff chases to watch is the CAA at-large #3 (and possibly #4). Richmond, William & Mary, UNH, UMass, and Maine are the 5 teams vying for that spot(s). Here are their remaining schedules:

Richmond (5-3)

Georgetown - win
at Hofstra - loss
Delaware - win
at William & Mary - loss

END UP 7-5 No playoffs

William & Mary (4-2)

URI - win
at Towson -win
Northeastern - win
at JMU - loss
Richmond - win

End up 9-3, playoffs

UNH (5-1)

Towson - win
Hofstra - win
at Villanova - loss
UMass - loss
at Maine -loss

7-4, no playoffs

UMass (4-3)

Bryant - win
at URI - win
Maine - win
at UNH - win
Hofstra - win

9-3 - playoffs

Maine (4-3)

Northeastern - win
Iona - cheap win
at URI - win
at UMass -loss
UNH - win

8-4, bubble team


Based on these schedules, here are my record predictions:

Richmond 9-3
William & Mary 7-4
UNH 7-4
UMass 8-4
Maine 9-3

If these predictions hold, I think both Richmond and Maine will join JMU and Villanova from the CAA in the playoffs.

JMU, Nova, UMass and Bill and Mary in. Maine will depend on how other teams finish - ie if there are three 9 win teams in the Big Sky, all get in, etc.

[dbackjon]

Here's how Montana can get the auto bid. NAU needs to beat Weber State at home. Montana needs to beat NAU at home. Both look very doable. Three way tie for the Big Sky. 1st tie breaker doesn't work so 2nd tie breaker goes into effect. Season record. If Montana wins out they are 11-1 with the auto bid if Weber loses to NAU. If Weber wins at NAU I don't see how Montana can win the auto bid but we could still win out and go 11-1.

That is a very realistic scenario.

NAU has the toughest road ahead - home games with Weber and MSU, road games at Montana and EWU.

[mainejeff]

JMU, Nova, UMass and Bill and Mary in. Maine will depend on how other teams finish - ie if there are three 9 win teams in the Big Sky, all get in, etc.

William & Mary is in with a 7-4 record and 2 losses in their final 2 games? Maine going 9-3 might be a stretch.....but if they do, they are in!

[UNHWildCats]

I think that one of the really interesting playoff chases to watch is the CAA at-large #3 (and possibly #4). Richmond, William & Mary, UNH, UMass, and Maine are the 5 teams vying for that spot(s). Here are their remaining schedules:

Richmond (5-3)

Georgetown
at Hofstra
Delaware
at William & Mary

William & Mary (4-2)

URI
at Towson
Northeastern
at JMU
Richmond

UNH (5-1)

Towson
Hofstra
at Villanova
UMass
at Maine

UMass (4-3)

Bryant
at URI
Maine
at UNH
Hofstra

Maine (4-3)

Northeastern
Iona
at URI
at UMass
UNH


Based on these schedules, here are my record predictions:

Richmond 9-3
William & Mary 7-4
UNH 7-4
UMass 8-4
Maine 9-3

If these predictions hold, I think both Richmond and Maine will join JMU and Villanova from the CAA in the playoffs.

I'll assume you're being very biased xlolx xlolx xlolx

[wkuhillhound]

This would have been the perfect season for the 24-team playoff format. With the CAA (JMU, Villanova, Richmond, New Hampshire), Big Sky (Weber State, Montana, Northern Arizona), and SoCon (Appalachian State, Elon, Wofford, Furman) looking real strong with at least 3 teams that could make the playoffs, it will be a shame that a 9-win team in any of these conference gets left out. I believe that the playoffs predictions are no clearer this week.

[Dukie95]

I think that one of the really interesting playoff chases to watch is the CAA at-large #3 (and possibly #4). Richmond, William & Mary, UNH, UMass, and Maine are the 5 teams vying for that spot(s). Here are their remaining schedules:

Richmond (5-3)

Georgetown
at Hofstra
Delaware
at William & Mary

William & Mary (4-2)

URI
at Towson
Northeastern
at JMU
Richmond

UNH (5-1)

Towson
Hofstra
at Villanova
UMass
at Maine

UMass (4-3)

Bryant
at URI
Maine
at UNH
Hofstra

Maine (4-3)

Northeastern
Iona
at URI
at UMass
UNH


Based on these schedules, here are my record predictions:

Richmond 9-3
William & Mary 7-4
UNH 7-4
UMass 8-4
Maine 9-3

If these predictions hold, I think both Richmond and Maine will join JMU and Villanova from the CAA in the playoffs.

I don't know about all that, but how big is that UR/W&M game now?

That could end up being a play-in game.

[LehighFan11]

JMU, Nova, UMass and Bill and Mary in. Maine will depend on how other teams finish - ie if there are three 9 win teams in the Big Sky, all get in, etc.

Umass? no

[PantherRob82]

Maine (4-3)

Northeastern
Iona
at URI
at UMass
UNH


Based on these schedules, here are my record predictions:

Richmond 9-3
William & Mary 7-4
UNH 7-4
UMass 8-4
Maine 9-3

If these predictions hold, I think both Richmond and Maine will join JMU and Villanova from the CAA in the playoffs.

I don't see Maine winning out.xconfusedx

[LehighFan11]

William & Mary is in with a 7-4 record and 2 losses in their final 2 games? Maine going 9-3 might be a stretch.....but if they do, they are in!

Not a chance in hell Maine goes 9-3.

[mainejeff]

I'll assume you're being very biased xlolx xlolx xlolx

Why do you say that? UMass and UNH are very beatable this season and Maine has improved......what is so "biased"???

[mainejeff]

I don't see Maine winning out.xconfusedx

The UMass game is the big one......that is the one that I went out on a limb for.

[mainejeff]

Not a chance in hell Maine goes 9-3.

Really?.....why do you say that? Have you seen Maine play this season?

[LehighFan11]

Has Maine ever won @ umass?

[mainejeff]

Has Maine ever won @ umass?

Very rarely. But do you think that UMass is unbeatable this season??? They are 4-3 just like Maine.

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

Why do you say that? UMass and UNH are very beatable this season and Maine has improved......what is so "biased"???

While UNH and Umass are beatable this year so is Maine.....

So calling for 5 wins in a row could be considered "Biased"

[LehighFan11]

Ok even if Maine goes 9-3, I don't see an at-large bid. That means their only good Wins would be @ Umass and UNH. So, unless UNH goes undefeated other than the Maine loss, I don't see an at-large bid. They did lose by 28 to Richmond.

[mainejeff]

While UNH and Umass are beatable this year so is Maine.....

So calling for 5 wins in a row could be considered "Biased"

Not when you take them game by game. What are your predictions for UNH???

[mainejeff]

Ok even if Maine goes 9-3, I don't see an at-large bid. That means their only good Wins would be @ Umass and UNH. So, unless UNH goes undefeated other than the Maine loss, I don't see an at-large bid. They did lose by 28 to Richmond.

A CAA team with a 9-3 record WILL get an at-large berth. Bank on it. xthumbsupx

[dbackjon]

Umass? no


They have a favorable schedule...

[LehighFan11]

CAA is 3 bid this year IMO. Richmond/WM is shaping up as a play-in game. Maybe UNH wins @ nova, maybe WM wins @ JMU.

[PantherRob82]

The UMass game is the big one......that is the one that I went out on a limb for.

New Hampshire?

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

Not when you take them game by game. What are your predictions for UNH???

I'm far to superstitious to make any picks that far out.....
I don't even make picks by the week.

I would love for the UNH Umaine game to be for a playoff spot.
I'll be there, should I look for you?

[UNHWildCats]

UNH

Towson - win
Hofstra - win
Villanova - tossup
Umass - tossup
Maine - win

[PantherRob82]

I've seen Maine play. I can't see them at 9-3

[LehighFan11]

CAA doesn't look as strong as is normally is. JMU is the best in the country. Villanova and Richmond have both looked very strong. William & Mary and UNH are dangerous teams that could pull an upset late in the season. Wins vs. Delaware and Umass just aren't "big wins" this year. Depending on what happens out west and down south maybe a 4th CAA team gets in but I wouldn't bank on it.

[tribe_pride]

The UMass game is the big one......that is the one that I went out on a limb for.

How is the game v. UNH not a game where you are going out on a limb for also. They are 5-1 right now. Also, while I see Maine winning, Northeastern has been no pushover this year either. Played UNH close for most of the game, UMass to 4, GSU to 7 and Syracuse down 9.

I would be shocked to see Maine go 9-3. I see them as a 7-5 team this year with losses to UNH and Umass to go. Much better than predicted before the season.

If you reread a couple of your comments from yesterday's game, I would have thought you would have been happy if Maine could win a game.

[th0m]

I agree. If it plays out that both McNeese and Cal Poly get into the playoffs, then they should be paired. I don't think Montana would be paired with Cal Poly first round as I seem to remember that the committee would not pair two teams that played in the regular season in the first round. I am not sure who Montana would play as they wouldn't pair them with a conference member first round either.

While McNeese - Poly 'needs' to happen, I think it is far more likely that Cal Poly travels to or receives the Big Sky team not being Montana, with the other team being paired up with the SLC team.

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

A friendly reminder -- do this just to spur discussion and while you guys are going to rip me apart, I continue to be willing to give it a try. Pairings were very tough this week, especially since I have FIVE teams from out west (3 Big Sky, 1 Southland, 1 GWFC). I wanted a Cal Poly-Montana rematch, so I gave myself one. ;)

Auto-Bids
Big Sky: Northern Arizona
CAA: James Madison
MEAC: Hampton
MVFC: Southern Illinois
OVC: Tennessee-Martin
Patriot: Lafayette
SoCon: Wofford
SLC: McNeese State

At-Large
1) Montana (Big Sky)
2) Cal Poly (Great West)
3) New Hampshire (CAA)
4) Villanova (CAA)
5) Weber State (Big Sky)
6) Northern Iowa (MVFC)
7) Elon (SoCon)
8) Appalachian State (SoCon)

Hampton at (1) James Madison
Villanova at Northern Iowa

Weber State at New Hampshire
McNeese St ate (4) Northern Arizona

Lafayette at (3) Wofford
Elon at Southern Illinois

Tennessee-Martin at (2) Appalachian State
Cal Poly at Montana

The only way UNH would ever get a home game is if they were seeded.

[mainejeff]

New Hampshire?

This isn't the Ricky Santos UNH and the game is in Orono.....may actually mean something for a change! I was not real impressed seeing them play Northeastern yesterday. Maine on the other hand is schizo, but they do have a couple of RBs that can take over a game. If Maine's D shows up, they can be very difficult to beat.

[mainejeff]

I'm far to superstitious to make any picks that far out.....
I don't even make picks by the week.

I would love for the UNH Umaine game to be for a playoff spot.
I'll be there, should I look for you?

Nope.

[mainejeff]

I've seen Maine play. I can't see them at 9-3

Who did you see them play?

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

Nope.

Didn't think so

[mainejeff]

If you reread a couple of your comments from yesterday's game, I would have thought you would have been happy if Maine could win a game.

Yeah, that happens when your team goes up 13-0 after 3 minutes of play then falls apart. Still a gutsy grind out win on Maine's part. xthumbsupx

I think that some of you underestimate the style of play of playoff bound teams......the D and running games win folks. xthumbsupx That spells trouble for a couple of teams in the running for a playoff spot. ;)

[mainejeff]

Didn't think so

Can the attitude. Do you live in California? xrolleyesx

[blur2005]

I think that some of you underestimate the style of play of playoff bound teams......the D and running games win folks. xthumbsupx That spells trouble for a couple of teams in the running for a playoff spot. ;)
From JMU's perspective, sounds good. Mainly the running game part...defense, meh. xconfusedx

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

Can the attitude. Do you live in California? xrolleyesx


Just bustin' ya....

I have to laugh though. How do you, of all people, think your boy Jackie is going to coach 5 straight in the CAA with out having one stumble?

[mainejeff]

Just bustin' ya....

I have to laugh though. How do you, of all people, think your boy Jackie is going to coach 5 straight in the CAA with out having one stumble?

I honestly don't know......but I do know that Maine has 2 great freshmen RBs that get better every week and a QB with decent leadership skills. Who knew that injuries would help Maine turn the corner? xconfusedx xeekx

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

UNH

Towson - win
Hofstra - win
Villanova - tossup
Umass - tossup
Maine - win

The way Maine is playing, I wouldn't call it a win. Agree with the others.

[kirkblitz]

Coastal will get at large bid #8

[danefan]

Coastal will get at large bid #8

I hope you're kidding. No way Coast gets a bid with 2 losses in the Big South and a loss against Colgate (no matter how BS it was, its still a loss).

[LehighFan11]

Man if Maine and Coastal are getting at-large bid, maybe the PL can get an at-large after allxlolx xlolx

[danefan]

Man if Maine and Coastal are getting at-large bid, maybe the PL can get an at-large after allxlolx xlolx

Shoot - I think Albany's getting a seed.xlolx

[AlphaSigMD]

A friendly reminder -- do this just to spur discussion and while you guys are going to rip me apart, I continue to be willing to give it a try. Pairings were very tough this week, especially since I have FIVE teams from out west (3 Big Sky, 1 Southland, 1 GWFC). I wanted a Cal Poly-Montana rematch, so I gave myself one. ;)

Auto-Bids
Big Sky: Northern Arizona
CAA: James Madison
MEAC: Hampton
MVFC: Southern Illinois
OVC: Tennessee-Martin
Patriot: Lafayette
SoCon: Wofford
SLC: McNeese State

At-Large
1) Montana (Big Sky)
2) Cal Poly (Great West)
3) New Hampshire (CAA)
4) Villanova (CAA)
5) Weber State (Big Sky)
6) Northern Iowa (MVFC)
7) Elon (SoCon)
8) Appalachian State (SoCon)

Hampton at (1) James Madison
Villanova at Northern Iowa

Weber State at New Hampshire
McNeese St ate (4) Northern Arizona

Lafayette at (3) Wofford
Elon at Southern Illinois

Tennessee-Martin at (2) Appalachian State
Cal Poly at Montana


I don't get it...

How does App State lose the conference championship and still remain in the No. 2 overall Seed.

How does Wofford beat ASU (at home) in order to win the conference and then lose to someone else (late in the season) to fall below ASU in the overall standings and then still manage to keep the overall No. 3 seed?

Does this mean you are going out of a limb to say there will be a 3 way tie with ASU beating Elon, Wofford beating ASU and Elon Beating Wofford. At that point in time, I think it would be a coin toss tiebreaker...but either way, the seeding would still be unlikely.

[JMU Duke Dog]

There is still a lot of football left to be played but here is my guess whatever it is worth...

PLAYOFF TEAMS:

Big Sky
Montana (10-2)
Northern Arizona (9-2)
*Weber State (10-2) – #4 Seed

CAA
*James Madison (10-1) – #1 Seed
New Hampshire (9-2)
Villanova (9-2)
William & Mary (8-3)

MEAC
*South Carolina State (10-2)

Missouri Valley
*Northern Iowa (10-2) – #3 Seed
Western Illinois (8-3)

Ohio Valley
*Tennessee State (11-1)

Patriot
*Lafayette (10-1)

Southern
*Appalachian State (10-2) – #2 Seed
Elon (10-2)
Wofford (8-3)

Southland
*McNeese State (9-2)

*Denotes automatic bid recipient.


FIRST ROUND PLAYOFF MATCHUPS:

Elon (10-2) at #1 James Madison (10-1)
Villanova (9-2) at Lafayette (10-1)

New Hampshire (9-2) at #4 Weber State (10-2)
Western Illinois (8-3) at Montana (10-2)

Northern Arizona (9-2) at #3 Northern Iowa (10-2)
Tennessee State (11-1) at McNeese State (9-2)

William & Mary (8-3) at #2 Appalachian State (10-2)
Wofford (8-3) at South Carolina State (10-2)

[Chi Panther]

There is still a lot of football left to be played but here is my guess whatever it is worth...

PLAYOFF TEAMS:

Big Sky
Montana (10-2)
Northern Arizona (9-2)
*Weber State (10-2) – #4 Seed

CAA
*James Madison (10-1) – #1 Seed
New Hampshire (9-2)
Villanova (9-2)
William & Mary (8-3)

MEAC
*South Carolina State (10-2)

Missouri Valley
*Northern Iowa (10-2) – #3 Seed
Western Illinois (8-3)

Ohio Valley
*Tennessee State (11-1)

Patriot
*Lafayette (10-1)

Southern
*Appalachian State (10-2) – #2 Seed
Elon (10-2)
Wofford (8-3)

Southland
*McNeese State (9-2)

*Denotes automatic bid recipient.


FIRST ROUND PLAYOFF MATCHUPS:

Elon (10-2) at #1 James Madison (10-1)
Villanova (9-2) at Lafayette (10-1)

New Hampshire (9-2) at #4 Weber State (10-2)
Western Illinois (8-3) at Montana (10-2)

Northern Arizona (9-2) at #3 Northern Iowa (10-2)
Tennessee State (11-1) at McNeese State (9-2)

William & Mary (8-3) at #2 Appalachian State (10-2)
Wofford (8-3) at South Carolina State (10-2)

I think thats pretty good, but Cal Poly probably makes it...and if Tenn State only has 1 loss they probably get a seed over UNI.

[UNHWildCats]

I think thats pretty good, but Cal Poly probably makes it...and if Tenn State only has 1 loss they probably get a seed over UNI.
xeyebrowx



xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx

[Tribe4SF]

Haven't covered the whole thread, but if Villanova and Lafayette are both in, they will be paired in the first round.

[santosballnewhampshire]

hahahhahahahaha maine making the playoffs, thats funny

[roTSU50]

Playoff home game would be a wait see appraoch for TSU. We share with the Titans, so it would have to be arranged with them.

I hope we win out.

[Bogus Megapardus]

Haven't covered the whole thread, but if Villanova and Lafayette are both in, they will be paired in the first round.

I like that idea a lot. Pards will pull out the stops to get it to be played in Easton. Newly-renovated, television-friendly stadium and a picturesque backdrop.

Only problem - even the most compelling of plays generally evokes little more than a polite "golf clap" from the Fisher Field stands (except against Lehigh). Plenty of people come to the games; it would be nice if the Pard faithful displayed a little more enthusiasm at times. I say, bring up the Wildcats' fans for the short drive north, let them fill the stands - and give the Pardsville golf-clap crowd a little competition.

This game is a guaranteed sell-out, even with all the end-zone bleachers they can lay their hands on.

[mainejeff]

Man if Maine and Coastal are getting at-large bid, maybe the PL can get an at-large after allxlolx xlolx

Well if a Patriot member ends up with 6 CAA wins then I'd say that they deserve an at-large. xthumbsupx

[mainejeff]

Shoot - I think Albany's getting a seed.xlolx

Same thing.....Albany with 6 CAA wins deserves one. ;)

[mainejeff]

hahahhahahahaha maine making the playoffs, thats funny

hahahahahahaha.....UNH with no defense making the playoffs is even funnier. xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx

[Poly Pigskin]

There is still a lot of football left to be played but here is my guess whatever it is worth...



So you have Cal Poly losing to Wisconsin and who else?

[ThreadStopper]

There is still a lot of football left to be played but here is my guess whatever it is worth...

PLAYOFF TEAMS:

Big Sky
Montana (10-2)
Northern Arizona (9-2)
*Weber State (10-2) – #4 Seed

CAA
*James Madison (10-1) – #1 Seed
New Hampshire (9-2)
Villanova (9-2)
William & Mary (8-3)

MEAC
*South Carolina State (10-2)

Missouri Valley
*Northern Iowa (10-2) – #3 Seed
Western Illinois (8-3)

Ohio Valley
*Tennessee State (11-1)

Patriot
*Lafayette (10-1)

Southern
*Appalachian State (10-2) – #2 Seed
Elon (10-2)
Wofford (8-3)

Southland
*McNeese State (9-2)

*Denotes automatic bid recipient.


FIRST ROUND PLAYOFF MATCHUPS:

Elon (10-2) at #1 James Madison (10-1)
Villanova (9-2) at Lafayette (10-1)

New Hampshire (9-2) at #4 Weber State (10-2)
Western Illinois (8-3) at Montana (10-2)

Northern Arizona (9-2) at #3 Northern Iowa (10-2)
Tennessee State (11-1) at McNeese State (9-2)

William & Mary (8-3) at #2 Appalachian State (10-2)
Wofford (8-3) at South Carolina State (10-2)

How about Cal Poy at James Madison?

[LehighFan11]

How about Cal Poy at James Madison?

What a game. That would just be rude to JMU.

[Chi Panther]

Playoff home game would be a wait see appraoch for TSU. We share with the Titans, so it would have to be arranged with them.

I hope we win out.

Learn something every day.xrotatehx

[malibudude]

What a game. That would just be rude to JMU.

An at large from a small conference, way out west, surfboards in tote, whom apparently some posters do not even have in their projected field....it's a lock first round match,:)

[Bogus Megapardus]

Well if a Patriot member ends up with 6 CAA wins then I'd say that they deserve an at-large. xthumbsupx

And if a CAA member could muster six Ivy League wins, they'd deserve it as well.

[mainejeff]

And if a CAA member could muster six Ivy League wins, they'd deserve it as well.

Why?xconfusedx

[URMite]

Ok even if Maine goes 9-3, I don't see an at-large bid. That means their only good Wins would be @ Umass and UNH. So, unless UNH goes undefeated other than the Maine loss, I don't see an at-large bid. They did lose by 28 to Richmond.

Although it would be hard to keep a 3 loss team from the (CAA, Socon, MVC, BSC) out, the OOC of Monmouth, Stony Brook, Iona doesn't make up for missing Nova and W&M. But only losing to Iowa, JMU, & UR is pretty good.

[Bogus Megapardus]

Why?xconfusedx


Because most Patriot OOC games are against Ivy League rivals (and vice-versa) but strong showings against Ivies seem to be disregarded by state-sponsored scholarship teams. You try dragging some of the behemoths at Penn and Yale and Harvard up and down the FieldTurf, and say it's a "weak conference."

[jlcharles]

I like that idea a lot. Pards will pull out the stops to get it to be played in Easton. Newly-renovated, television-friendly stadium and a picturesque backdrop.

Only problem - even the most compelling of plays generally evokes little more than a polite "golf clap" from the Fisher Field stands (except against Lehigh). Plenty of people come to the games; it would be nice if the Pard faithful displayed a little more enthusiasm at times. I say, bring up the Wildcats' fans for the short drive north, let them fill the stands - and give the Pardsville golf-clap crowd a little competition.

This game is a guaranteed sell-out, even with all the end-zone bleachers they can lay their hands on.

I would definitely make the drive. Never been to Lafayette, so I think it would be a great trip. Would be interesting to see who got the game at home in this situation. We had home playoff games before as probably the last team in in 2003, so who knows.

[Bogus Megapardus]

I would definitely make the drive. Never been to Lafayette, so I think it would be a great trip. Would be interesting to see who got the game at home in this situation. We had home playoff games before as probably the last team in in 2003, so who knows.

You'll like it. Parking can be a little tight, but it's manageable. It's really a compelling new atmosphere for a game. Be sure to save some time for a quick tour of the campus.

[theasushow]

picking 16 worthy teams in the easy part. its matching the teams up that is so difficult (due to the whole regionalization thing). We all know that there are going to be 1 or 2 teams that are going to be forced across country to play that opening round game. there is just no way of predicting which team(s) that might be.

[RazorEdge19]

picking 16 worthy teams in the easy part. its matching the teams up that is so difficult (due to the whole regionalization thing). We all know that there are going to be 1 or 2 teams that are going to be forced across country to play that opening round game. there is just no way of predicting which team(s) that might be.

If Wofford makes it...they're prolly a safe bet.

[uofmman1122]

What a game. That would just be rude to JMU.Pffft!

If that's the case, then I guess Wofford @ Montana was a knife in the back to Montana. xrolleyesx:p

[appfan2008]

looks good tt... right now the socon looks good for 3 teams with furman knocking on the door... everyone else is out of it...

[danefan]

Because most Patriot OOC games are against Ivy League rivals (and vice-versa) but strong showings against Ivies seem to be disregarded by state-sponsored scholarship teams. You try dragging some of the behemoths at Penn and Yale and Harvard up and down the FieldTurf, and say it's a "weak conference."

It may not be a weak conference, but its not a strong conference either. You are over inflating it because as a PL fan you have to. Its the same level as the PL. Saying the Ivy league is a strong conference is homerish. You have to say it is, or else you'll have to realize most of your OOC games (less Liberty) aren't great.

[Killsback]

There is still a lot of football left to be played but here is my guess whatever it is worth...

PLAYOFF TEAMS:

Big Sky
Montana (10-2)
Northern Arizona (9-2)
*Weber State (10-2) – #4 Seed

CAA
*James Madison (10-1) – #1 Seed
New Hampshire (9-2)
Villanova (9-2)
William & Mary (8-3)

MEAC
*South Carolina State (10-2)

Missouri Valley
*Northern Iowa (10-2) – #3 Seed
Western Illinois (8-3)

Ohio Valley
*Tennessee State (11-1)

Patriot
*Lafayette (10-1)

Southern
*Appalachian State (10-2) – #2 Seed
Elon (10-2)
Wofford (8-3)

Southland
*McNeese State (9-2)

*Denotes automatic bid recipient.


FIRST ROUND PLAYOFF MATCHUPS:

Elon (10-2) at #1 James Madison (10-1)
Villanova (9-2) at Lafayette (10-1)

New Hampshire (9-2) at #4 Weber State (10-2)
Western Illinois (8-3) at Montana (10-2)

Northern Arizona (9-2) at #3 Northern Iowa (10-2)
Tennessee State (11-1) at McNeese State (9-2)

William & Mary (8-3) at #2 Appalachian State (10-2)
Wofford (8-3) at South Carolina State (10-2)

Can't believe you leave SIU out of the playoffs. They along with Montana have the longest current playoff streak going and they are tied for first in the MVFC, have already beaten UNI and have WIU at home. If SIU can win out they should get a seed.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

Because most Patriot OOC games are against Ivy League rivals (and vice-versa) but strong showings against Ivies seem to be disregarded by state-sponsored scholarship teams. You try dragging some of the behemoths at Penn and Yale and Harvard up and down the FieldTurf, and say it's a "weak conference."

Since the Ivy refuses to play many games against schools outside the Patriot League, we sure don't get many opportunities to truly ascertain the quality of the Ivy League teams. I grew up during the era when the Ivy was a true national player so I really do try to give them the benefit of the doubt. But in the few head-to-head match-ups with outside schools, the results just don't back up your view that the Ivy is a strong conference. The Patriot OOC games aren't doing so either.

And hearing that Dartmouth won't renew the contract for the series with UNH and reading that Princeton and Harvard are going to schedule San Diego sure makes me feel like the Ivy is retreating and not interested in maintaining the level of excellence that they have over the decades on the gridiron.

I won't say the Ivy is weak because I have way too much respect for them. But there is no way I can say they are a strong conference. JMHO, but getting six wins against Ivy teams is much easier than getting six wins against CAA teams.

[WrenFGun]

I was doing some research, and there are some big games left, especially for teams from big conferences. I'm of the opinion that the loser of the Weber State/NAU game will likely miss the playoffs. I also think Hampton can knock SC State into bad shape with a win, and that Jax. State can put UT-Martin in awful shape with a win.

[FanOfAllThatIsJMU]

guy from nobowls.com has his scenario up. and on the JMU board at least i think there has been a misconception, if you read his disclaimer of how he picked the field, for the auto-bids its whoever is atop the standings that week. He isn't predicting who will actually win the conference. Hence why he has Elon as the auto (and going to JMU) from SoCon and App seeded. Those things should be cleared up in the next few weeks with our SoCon friends playing each other and the 'Nova JMU game this weekend.

[Pitz]

guy from nobowls.com has his scenario up. and on the JMU board at least i think there has been a misconception, if you read his disclaimer of how he picked the field, for the auto-bids its whoever is atop the standings that week. He isn't predicting who will actually win the conference. Hence why he has Elon as the auto (and going to JMU) from SoCon and App seeded. Those things should be cleared up in the next few weeks with our SoCon friends playing each other and the 'Nova JMU game this weekend.

W&M still quietly sneaking into the picture...

[89Hen]

Auto-Bids
Big Sky: Northern Arizona
CAA: James Madison
MEAC: Hampton
MVFC: Southern Illinois
OVC: Tennessee-Martin
Patriot: Lafayette
SoCon: Wofford
SLC: McNeese State

At-Large
1) Montana (Big Sky)
2) Cal Poly (Great West)
3) New Hampshire (CAA)
4) Villanova (CAA)
5) Weber State (Big Sky)
6) Northern Iowa (MVFC)
7) Elon (SoCon)
8) Appalachian State (SoCon)
I was trying to do pairings using your 16 and I came to the conclusion that it will be tough for the Committee to give the Big Sky two at-large bids with CalPoly in the field. UM/NAU/Weber can't play each other and you know CP will get one of them. That leaves two cross country games. xeyebrowx

[dbackjon]

I was trying to do pairings using your 16 and I came to the conclusion that it will be tough for the Committee to give the Big Sky two at-large bids with CalPoly in the field. UM/NAU/Weber can't play each other and you know CP will get one of them. That leaves two cross country games. xeyebrowx


and hopefully that will not play any roll in the selection. If NAU/WSU/UM/CalPoly are deserving, they should go, regardless of travel.

[OhioHen]

Haven't covered the whole thread, but if Villanova and Lafayette are both in, they will be paired in the first round.

Neither school typically gets the crowd that the NCAA likes. If not seeded, both are likely to travel for a first round game. Lafayette has a better chance to host if they meet (assuming no seed for Villanova) but I would still expect to see both on the road rather than meeting each other.

[89Hen]

and hopefully that will not play any roll in the selection. If NAU/WSU/UM/CalPoly are deserving, they should go, regardless of travel.
Agreed, but I had a hell of a time trying to do pairings using TT's teams. I kept ending up with a team that had nowhere to go. You have to figure that AppSt, Montana and UNI are going to host with or without a seed. Throw in that a smaller venue could be seeded Wofford, three western teams that can't be paired against each other... this could be a messy selection day.

[WrenFGun]

I was trying to make my projections, and game to roughly the same conclusion as Nobowls.com came to, and that is that it is too hard to decipher between worthwhile teams. Still too many to decide between, but hopefully that will work itself out.

[Pard94]

Neither school typically gets the crowd that the NCAA likes. If not seeded, both are likely to travel for a first round game. Lafayette has a better chance to host if they meet (assuming no seed for Villanova) but I would still expect to see both on the road rather than meeting each other.

Villanova at Lafayette would almost certainly be standing room only. Lafayette folks would treat it like a second Lehigh game and I am sure Villanova fans would easily travel hour and 20 minutes to watch the game.

And I would drop to my knees and thank god for the opportunity to beat Villanova at Fisher Stadium. That victory would almost be as sweet to me as a NC. Please God...can you make that happen?

[MacThor]

guy from nobowls.com has his scenario up.

That bracket for UR looks awfully familiar. Home game, @Spartanburg, @Boone.................

[Bogus Megapardus]

Villanova at Lafayette would almost certainly be standing room only. Lafayette folks would treat it like a second Lehigh game and I am sure Villanova fans would easily travel hour and 20 minutes to watch the game.

And I would drop to my knees and thank god for the opportunity to beat Villanova at Fisher Stadium. That victory would almost be as sweet to me as a NC. Please God...can you make that happen?

This would be a guaranteed sellout, including endzone. A packed Fisher Field looks great on television.

As to the comparisons to the crowd at Liberty - it's necessary to keep in mind that Liberty's games typically draw attendance equal to about half of its student population. Lafayette typically has attendance of three or four times its student population. Given its size, Lafayette draws very well.

[Tribe4SF]

Neither school typically gets the crowd that the NCAA likes. If not seeded, both are likely to travel for a first round game. Lafayette has a better chance to host if they meet (assuming no seed for Villanova) but I would still expect to see both on the road rather than meeting each other.

First round pairings are made with geography as the prime criteria. If they're both in, they will play each other. Both also draw as well as most FCS schools. The only consideration of bids is after the matches are set to determine the host school.

[AZGrizFan]

That is a very realistic scenario.

NAU has the toughest road ahead - home games with Weber and MSU, road games at Montana and EWU.

I expect NAU to go 1-3 during their last 4. xcoolx xcoolx xcoolx (L, W, L, L)

[Screamin_Eagle174]

An 11-1 Montana gets a seed. Hell, a 10-2 Montana has a good chance of getting a seed. xnodx

Besides, Weber could lose to EWU or NAU and still win the auto, even if Montana wins out, and would have a lower record.

NAU @ UM and WSU vs. NAU are going to (most likely) be the championship games. Unless some other teams throw a wrench in there somewhere. WSU did not look as stellar vs. UNC.

*cough cough* EWU *cough cough*

[jcmanson]

As to the comparisons to the crowd at Liberty - it's necessary to keep in mind that Liberty's games typically draw attendance equal to about half of its student population.

Liberty's student body = 11,000
Average attendance = 14,000

[FargoBison]

Here is my attempt....

Big Sky- Weber State
CAA-JMU
MEAC-Hampton
MVFC-UNI
OVC-TSU
Patriot-Lafayette
SoCon-Elon
SLC-McNeese

At Large
Montana
App State
Wofford
NAU
SIU
UNH
NOVA
Cal Poly

Seeds
JMU
App State
Elon
UNI

JMU vs Hampton
Nova vs Lafayette

App State vs UNH
Wofford vs SIU

Elon vs TSU
Cal Poly vs Weber State

UNI vs NAU
Montana vs McNeese

Last Team in:NAU
Last teams out:WIU, Richmond, Furman, W&M, Jacksonville State

[Screamin_Eagle174]

I expect NAU to go 1-3 during their last 4. xcoolx xcoolx xcoolx (L, W, L, L)

They need to go 2-2: Beat Weber, beat Montana, lose to both MSU and EWU. EWU needs to win out, creating a 4-way for first in the conference. Both EWU and NAU would have 2 wins over the other co-champs, so EWU would get the auto with the heads up win over NAU! xlolx xnodx

That's what's going to happen boys, hold on! xthumbsupx

[dbackjon]

I expect NAU to go 1-3 during their last 4. xcoolx xcoolx xcoolx (L, W, L, L)

You think we will beat Montana?


NAU Schedule: Weber, @ MT, MSU, @EWU


I am thinking 2-2, which puts us at 8-3.

[stevdock]

They need to go 2-2: Beat Weber, beat Montana, lose to both MSU and EWU. EWU needs to win out, creating a 4-way for first in the conference. Both EWU and NAU would have 2 wins over the other co-champs, so EWU would get the auto with the heads up win over NAU! xlolx xnodx

That's what's going to happen boys, hold on! xthumbsupx

Somebody on Bisonville figured out that we have a shot of doing this too. I can't remember all the scenarios that need to happen for it, but technically it is still possible. And if I remember right that's not even counting on ISU or MSU to win a game. Not gonna happen but it's nice to know we aren't mathematically eliminated yet.xthumbsupx

[Grizzaholic]

You think we will beat Montana?


NAU Schedule: Weber, @ MT, MSU, @EWU


I am thinking 2-2, which puts us at 8-3.

It is a real possibility. Personally I do not think it will happen, but then again it is the BSC.