Lack Of FBS Realignment Seems To Spell No FCS Jumps

[Lehigh Football Nation]

The following blog posting is from an avid follower of the FBS ranks, but his conclusion seems to be pretty clear that many of the existing conferences ain't going to be changing soon:

http://thenationalchampionshipissue.blogspot.com/2008/01/state-of-conference-realignment.html


The Big 5 – stable BCS conferences
With one small exception, these five conferences have a 0% chance of changing in the near future... If the Big 10 adds a school, it'll be Notre Dame. If Notre Dame joins a conference, it'll be the Big 10.

The Big East
Georgetown and Villanova play AA football, so should they just move up to division I-A? Nope. That would bring the whole conference down further with regards to football. Should they invite more powerhouse football schools to the conference? Can't - the Big East is already at 16 strong when it comes to basketball and other sports. They're not going to grow (and dilute) the conference as a whole just to strengthen the football side. Well, why don't they just invite or force Notre Dame to join for football too? Yeah right - Notre Dame football will never, ever join the Big East. Never. Okay, so why not add some schools for football only? Name one school that would join for football only that would be worth adding. There are none. Hmmm... so why don't some of the current Big East schools just join a different conference? One, because there are no spots available in better (BCS) conferences, and two, because all of them have solid basketball programs which benefit greatly by playing in the Big East. Miami, BC, and VT had an opportunity to move up football-wise and laterally basketball-wise, and they took it. Nobody else in the Big East is going to get that opportunity. Therefore the Big East is stuck.

Mountain West
They're not going to pick an up-and-comer from AA, they're going to go for an established, successful DI-A team. That school still has to be in the Rocky Mountains or close by, realistically. Get where I'm going with this? Boise State.

Reading this, there's basically a 0% chance in this writer's opinion that an FCS school will crack any of these seven conferences. When you start looking at the lesser conferences you start to see some names:


MAC
Gotta give the MAC credit - they know who they are and they've stuck with it. Made up mainly of good schools that are dwarfed in most ways (especially athletically) by flagship neighbors, they've found their niche and are happy in it. Sure they'd like to have more inclusion in the BCS, but they're not going to fight tooth and nail to become more elite.

As far as adding schools goes... I can't imagine any other school that's already DI-A. Western Kentucky? Maybe, if the Sun Belt thing doesn't work. Maybe one of the other Illinois schools that does well in AA football, or possibly Northern Iowa. I'd say the chance they add another school in the next 5-7 years is pretty good, if only because they're so welcoming.

Jumping from FCS elite to a conference that is "dwarfed in many ways by its neighbors"? That's one option.

Here's the other "wonderful" FBS options:


Musical Chairs – The 3 unstable, non-BCS conferences
Conference USA has had a rocky life, to say the least. It's been the same makeup for the last three years, so it doesn't look like things will be changing any time soon.

WAC - They're basically the western U.S. version of C-USA but without the stable number, having only 9 members. Could they add some schools to get their numbers & prosperity up? Possibly, but who? Honestly, it sorta makes more sense for Louisiana Tech to be in the Sun Belt, since they've only been in the WAC for seven years and are by far the furthest east geographically. But any school they could add is either in a better conference (Pac 10 or Mtn West) or decided to leave the WAC recently. So the WAC remains in limbo...

Sun Belt -And finally we get to the Sun Belt, the doorway to the Division I-A. The only current school in the conference that hasn't moved up from DI-AA in the last 15 years is LA-Lafayette. Will these schools ever move on to bigger, more established conferences? That's iffy, if only because there's not many places to move to....

Conclusions?


So after all that, where do we stand regarding conference realignment? Well first off, the mad rush to join a good conference that started in the mid 90's has tapered off in the last few years. We're probably never going to see another off-season where 10-12 schools switch conferences, mainly because things are settled and because there aren't any more chain-reaction spots. (For instance, when the ACC filled those spots with Miami & VA Tech, it set off a big chain reaction with the Big East "stealing" teams from C-USA, C-USA stealing teams from the WAC & MAC, and the WAC stealing teams from the Sun Belt.) The Mountain West might invite a top-tier team from another of the non-BCS conferences, and that might cause a mini-chain reaction, but not one that would involve that many teams or that many conferences. The game's already full at the top. So overall, we can expect the conferences to remain relatively unchanged for the foreseeable future. The only thing that could shake them up in such a major fashion again would be a drastic change to the structure of the BCS that throws the whole college football world into chaos. And while the BCS might be intimately familiar with chaos, we all know that the phrase "drastic change" isn't in its overseers vocabulary.

So there you have it - written from an FBS fan's perspective, NOT an FCS dreamer's perspective. If you move up, you're moving into, most likely, the MAC or Sun Belt. If you're going into the MAC, you're signing up for a conference that isn't aggressively pursuing the "big-time" bowls. If you're going into the Sun Belt, you're secretly hoping to get boomeranged into a good conference if the BCS breaks apart. But according to this guy, there's a near-zero chance of that happening.

[Dane96]

I disagree with his Big East points. People I talk to, at Big East member institutions, have said rumblings EXIST regarding lack of future basketball bids.

Syracuse has led the charge. If the BE doesnt average 7 bids over the next 5 years...I would expect change. The smaller schools without football, namely the Catholics---or with IAA football, simply don't have the ancillary revenue from football to help prop up facilities, funding, and recruiting for basketball.

You will see a smattering of the smaller schools in top ten-- currently there are three-- of the Big East standings that will have the opportunity to get a shot at the dance, but it wont be regular.

Most however, will be the football schools.

[OSBF]

That's exactly the pinch we are in. It would be a mistake of collosal proportion for us to leave the MVC for the MAC. MAC athletics are nowhere near the level of the MVC. Are we gonna trash everything that so many have worked so hard for so many years to live the "dream" of FBS football in the MAC???? God I hope not.

[GannonFan]

Once the BCS conferences got big enough to allow conference championship football games ($$$$) they weren't going to get any bigger. I'd argue that the Big East could, potentially, be different years down the road, but there's always going to be the push and pull of basketball that keeps them together, IMO. Hard to see them abadoning the very lucrative basketball side of the equation just to have a nice and tidy looking league - they can suffer the oddity of having a 16 team basketball league and a smaller football league because they get 8-9 teams into March Madness and they get the collective $$ from that. If anyone was to join the Big East anytime soon, it would be Memphis (who's been a respected basketball power for decades now and who has a somewhat decent football program), but I only see them being added if Notre Dame was ever to bolt to the Big Ten. I kinda agree with the writer, the BCS likes what they have and they aren't really keen to sharing it with anyone else.

[Dane96]

Here is the rub-- The majority of the top hoop schools will be the football/basketball playing schools. THEY HAVE MORE MONEY!

[Seahawks Fan]

I detect a negative Big East bias: "Miami, BC, and VT had an opportunity to move up football-wise and laterally basketball-wise, and they took it."

Not so sure the final Conference ratings support that. Sagarin doesn't. xnodx

[GannonFan]

Here is the rub-- The majority of the top hoop schools will be the football/basketball playing schools. THEY HAVE MORE MONEY!

But that's the thing, that's not entirely true. Georgetown, nova, Notre Dame (because football plays elsewhere), Marquette, DePaul, and to a lesser extent Providence have been good basketball schools going back to the 1970's and even earlier and they've been playing against schools that have the financial backing of football for decades and yet they continue to flourish and make NCAA tourney trips. Why is that going to change? Obviously St. John's and Seton Hall are mired in some serious mediocrity, but Rutgers has been right alongside them for an even longer period and even with Rutgers' football's emergence the b-ball program still needs tons of help. The conference isn't going to break up just because St. John's and Seton Hall are struggling.

What does it help those schools to move to a different conference? They will then struggle with scheduling and diminished prominence and since they are so dependent on basketball they wouldn't risk the golden ticket just so they can get away from the football schools (against whom they compete just fine now). And the football schools don't want to jettison the good basketball schools for the same reason.

It ain't perfect, but in a weird way, it works. They got 8 teams in in 2006 and they got 6 in last year. If the season ended today they could get upwards to 10 in. It's a very, very healthy basketball conference and there's no reason to upset the applecart.

[GannonFan]

I detect a negative Big East bias: "Miami, BC, and VT had an opportunity to move up football-wise and laterally basketball-wise, and they took it."

Not so sure the final Conference ratings support that. Sagarin doesn't. xnodx

I agree - it looked good when they did it but then Miami tanked, along with Florida St, and the ACC can't really claim to be a better football conference than the Big East because it just isn't true. Rutgers, UConn, and Cincinnati improving has certainly helped the football side of the equation.

[OL FU]

I detect a negative Big East bias: "Miami, BC, and VT had an opportunity to move up football-wise and laterally basketball-wise, and they took it."

Not so sure the final Conference ratings support that. Sagarin doesn't. xnodx

I don't think it is negative. At the time they moved, it was upward.

[nwFL Griz]

I agree - it looked good when they did it but then Miami tanked, along with Florida St, and the ACC can't really claim to be a better football conference than the Big East because it just isn't true. Rutgers, UConn, and Cincinnati improving has certainly helped the football side of the equation.

One year does not a trend make. The Big East had some success this year, but can it continue year after year? Probably not....especially when your biggest gun is West Virginia.

Sure Miami has been down the last couple of years, but Miami will always be able to recruit, as will Florida St, Virginia Tech, and even Clemson. And all those teams have the opportunity to be in the National Title hunt, based on name alone. The same can not be said for the Big East.

Like it or not, barring drastic changes, the ACC will continue to be a better gig than the Big East. I mean, head-to-head this past year, 4-4.

[TheValleyRaider]

I detect a negative Big East bias: "Miami, BC, and VT had an opportunity to move up football-wise and laterally basketball-wise, and they took it."

Not so sure the final Conference ratings support that. Sagarin doesn't. xnodx

Remember though, at the time Miami and VT were the powers of Big East Football. West Virginia's big break was them leaving. Now, maybe WV would have made it a Big 3 on top, but the Canes and Hokies were consistent Top 20 programs. So not only did their subtraction hurt the Big East, but their addition, presumably, propped up the ACC to a better level.


One year does not a trend make. The Big East had some success this year, but can it continue year after year? Probably not....especially when your biggest gun is West Virginia.

Sure Miami has been down the last couple of years, but Miami will always be able to recruit, as will Florida St, Virginia Tech, and even Clemson. And all those teams have the opportunity to be in the National Title hunt, based on name alone. The same can not be said for the Big East.

Like it or not, barring drastic changes, the ACC will continue to be a better gig than the Big East. I mean, head-to-head this past year, 4-4.

There is certainly hope for the Big East. Louisville knows how to build strong programs, Syracuse will come back, and I have to think UConn can make some noise as they continue to put money into their program. The Big East is in the conversation for weakest BCS league, but they have ample opportunities to move up in the world as well.

Of course, changes happen in the ACC too. Watch out for North Carolina in a couple of years. Butch Davis can build a program, and he's got an attractive situation to sell to recruits (big-name school, nice campus, very dedicated alumni base).

[CollegeSportsInfo]

His overall assumptions about the BCS conferences are more-or-less what we've all been talking about on the boards. No BCS conference would consider an FCS upgrade. The MWC, WAC, CUSA, MAC, and Sunbelt are better testing grounds for an upgrade. Marshall left for the MAC and in time moved on to CUSA.

The dilemma that the Big East faces is geography. Face it, if the present CUSA or Sunbelt conference was made up of schools and programs such as the MWC and WAC, the Big East would have expanded. Meaning, if programs with strength like a BYU, Utah, CSU, UNLV, SDSU, Boise St., Fresno St., etc, were in the eastern region, they would be targets. Sadly, CUSA and sunbelt don't have that caliber of program for the Big East. This is why there is no rush to make a change...there aren't any good candidates.

Eyes are on UCF right now. With USF in the Big East, a successful run at UCF could mean an eventual BE invite. But it would take alot to happen including a major shakeup in the 16 team Big East.

The other thing to consider with a splitup...(2) 8 team conferences. It's doubtful that 7 of 8 teams in a FB BE would get basketball bids.

[Appinator]

Well I know it's always the far fetched idea, but I think this really lays down the logic of an entire group of universities to make that jump. Everyone likes to throw out the laundry list of "premier" FCS teams that could form this new conference, but I really think that it would be one of the most difficult tasks that would ever be taken action on in college sports.

This group would have to make sure not just one, but all of their members qualified for FBS scholarship and title XI requirements. They would have to ensure that each institution was financially stable enough to support itself as well.

Now if a small group of FCS who were FBS ready combined with a few schools who were tired of having to support these large travel costs associated with nation wide schedules, a new conference might be more readily formed. There are always ideas, but it will be interesting if there is any movement behind things like this.

[TheValleyRaider]

Well I know it's always the far fetched idea, but I think this really lays down the logic of an entire group of universities to make that jump. Everyone likes to throw out the laundry list of "premier" FCS teams that could form this new conference, but I really think that it would be one of the most difficult tasks that would ever be taken action on in college sports.

This group would have to make sure not just one, but all of their members qualified for FBS scholarship and title XI requirements. They would have to ensure that each institution was financially stable enough to support itself as well.

To say nothing of the fact that this new conference would have to decide both if it was going to be football-only (which in my mind seems very difficult to do period, and especially at the FBS level), and they'd have to secure an automatic bowl tie-in or two. We're very near the saturation point of bowl games, to the point where there aren't exactly lines of 6-win teams being kept out every year, so you're possibly talking about a current bowl game dropping one of it's other tie-ins (some of which are relative guarantees) for a tie with a conference that has a lot of unknowns (like travelling fans, TV support). Exceedingly difficult to do, in my estimation xtwocentsx

[OSBF]

Well I know it's always the far fetched idea, but I think this really lays down the logic of an entire group of universities to make that jump. Everyone likes to throw out the laundry list of "premier" FCS teams that could form this new conference, but I really think that it would be one of the most difficult tasks that would ever be taken action on in college sports.

This group would have to make sure not just one, but all of their members qualified for FBS scholarship and title XI requirements. They would have to ensure that each institution was financially stable enough to support itself as well.

Now if a small group of FCS who were FBS ready combined with a few schools who were tired of having to support these large travel costs associated with nation wide schedules, a new conference might be more readily formed. There are always ideas, but it will be interesting if there is any movement behind things like this.

You're describing the GFC minus InSU. Think the name change back to MVC was just for the heck of it???? There have been rumblins and grumblins for some time now that the name change was the first step in preparing the entire conf to make the FBS move at the same time. This is something that could work because schools wouldn't be forced to dump the MVC for a piece of crap conf like the MAC etc etc etc.

[Appinator]

You're describing the GFC minus InSU. Think the name change back to MVC was just for the heck of it???? There have been rumblins and grumblins for some time now that the name change was the first step in preparing the entire conf to make the FBS move at the same time. This is something that could work because schools wouldn't be forced to dump the MVC for a piece of crap conf like the MAC etc etc etc.

Maybe for continuity sake? I really don't think the rest of the teams as a whole would be ready to compete consistently at the FBS level. That's why I think this is such a monumental undertaking if it is going to be done right. There are very few programs that are even at the point of looking at FBS play.

[OSBF]

Maybe for continuity sake? I really don't think the rest of the teams as a whole would be ready to compete consistently at the FBS level. That's why I think this is such a monumental undertaking if it is going to be done right. There are very few programs that are even at the point of looking at FBS play.


Perhaps, but we don't have any continuity now. WIU, YSU, NDSU, and SDSU are already football only members. I know it isn't popular with many valley folk, but I for one would love for the XDSU's be given full valley membership. WIU and YSU would need to work on the men's basketball side of things a little.

We went to SDSU for a women's NIT game last spring. Those facilities are on par with MVC, and some of the best fans you'll find anywhere.

[CollegeSportsInfo]

Well I know it's always the far fetched idea, but I think this really lays down the logic of an entire group of universities to make that jump. Everyone likes to throw out the laundry list of "premier" FCS teams that could form this new conference, but I really think that it would be one of the most difficult tasks that would ever be taken action on in college sports.

This group would have to make sure not just one, but all of their members qualified for FBS scholarship and title XI requirements. They would have to ensure that each institution was financially stable enough to support itself as well.

Now if a small group of FCS who were FBS ready combined with a few schools who were tired of having to support these large travel costs associated with nation wide schedules, a new conference might be more readily formed. There are always ideas, but it will be interesting if there is any movement behind things like this.

Just so many factors: TV contract (it HAS to be worth while to fund the upgrades), expecting NO BOWL GAMES since they wouldn't be given their own bowl, no having an AUTOBID for BASKETBALL. That's alot to risk.

[OSBF]

no having an AUTOBID for BASKETBALL. That's alot to risk.


That's the beauty of the MVC, has been consistently a 2-3 bid conf over the past several years, with another 2 NIT bids. Conf RPI consistently in the top 6-8 range.

[ERASU2113]

There's honestly too many factors to be able to justify a number of schools making the jump to FBS. It's really too risky to think about it unless you get things lined up before you make the jump.

The MVC could do it, just for the simple fact basketball has had strong showings in recent years. That could support football while it built itself up making it a viable conference with bowl ties.

[OSBF]

The MVC could do it, just for the simple fact basketball has had strong showings in recent years. That could support football while it built itself up making it a viable conference with bowl ties.

EXACTLY!!!!!!!

[BearsCountry]

Perhaps, but we don't have any continuity now. WIU, YSU, NDSU, and SDSU are already football only members. I know it isn't popular with many valley folk, but I for one would love for the XDSU's be given full valley membership. WIU and YSU would need to work on the men's basketball side of things a little.

We went to SDSU for a women's NIT game last spring. Those facilities are on par with MVC, and some of the best fans you'll find anywhere.

I have been on the Dakotas bandwagon for sometime. I think they would be great members for the MVC. I agree move the MVC fb schools add the XDSU's. I would say if the MVC was going to sponsor FBS footbal, the Shox would get on board more than likely. If InSt doesnt want to make the move, let them go to the OVC or Summit. Hopefully Evansville gets the hint and moves. Add Western Kentucky and Northern Illinois and lets roll.

MVC
Illinois State
Missouri State
North Dakota State
Northern Iowa
Northern Illinois
South Dakota State
Southern Illinois
Western Kentucky
Wichita State
*Creighton
*Bradley
*Drake

[Fresno St. Alum]

If there are no conference splits there is a way to get a few FCS's in. Here's how.

1.MAC has 13 Fb members the can add a member (full or FB only) it worked like that when Marshall was there.

2.MWC wants to add Boise St. puts them at 10

3.WAC would then go to 10. the list Montana & Montana St. or UC Davis & N.Texas (2 would get in)

4.(If N.Texas) Sun belt could add another Georgia So.

5.Big 10 is looking at (Notre Dame, Missouri, Rutgers, Syracuse). If they add one I say it would be Mizzou. ND doesn't like to share Fb money. If this happened Colorado St. could get in the Big 12. and that would open another spot in the MWC where they could take Houston or Fresno St. trickling down where WAC or C-USA take 1 and another FCS could have a spot in the Sun Belt. Or UTSA w/FB to the C-USA

A bunch of ifs but I've been following conference movement since 1991 and all I can say is that it always changes.

[ERASU2113]

I'll just be happy if ASU stays I-AA. I'd rather see them play FCS opponents then move up and be in C-USA or the Sun Belt.

Stay glorious in FCS than move up and be mediocre

[Fresno St. Alum]

If ASU was offered a spot in the C-USA they'd go, but the Sun Belt isn't good for anything but a stepping stone for another conference. That conference I made with the CAA/SoCon schools on the JMU thread would beat down most of the Belt & MAC

[ERASU2113]

Yea they most likely would make the jump to C-USA, which is what people have talked about for a number of years. Atleast since I've been here.

I remember the CAA/SoCon conference and that would be a great conference that I could see doing some damage in years to come.

[ERASU2113]

If no FBS conferences split the only way for the FCS schools thinking about moving up is go Indy or have enough schools from the CAA and or the SoCon split and form an all sports conference where they would only lose their auto-bid for basketball for a year like when the WAC split in the late 90's.

UMass
JMU
Richmond
Delaware
App St.
Georgia So.
Furman
Chattanooga
Jacksonville St.
Charlotte (if they add football)

I know not all of these have interest in moving up now but if more leave they might. This conference I came up with is better than the Sun Belt & MAC. Troy, FAU, CMU, Bowling Green could hang but over this new one is better.

Texas St. too far southwest for this. pray for the Sun Belt to take them.

That would be a really good conference. A lot of dedicated and diehard fans at each school on that list. We can only dream can't we?

[Fresno St. Alum]

problem with a double jump, aka Socon to C-USA by skipping the Sun Belt (very rare). It would take a C-USA split forming SWC to get App in without going to the Belt first. Or a Big East split and the Private schools forming a 12 team conference along with the football schools having 12 opening a lot of spots(not likely to start that big)

[Fresno St. Alum]

That would be a really good conference. A lot of dedicated and diehard fans at each school on that list. We can only dream can't we?

Let me fix it I looked a little more into it.

Delaware
William & Mary
UMass
Old Dominion
James Madison
Georgia So.
Appalachian St.
Chattanooga
Jacksonville St.
Charlotte (w/FB)

what would make this a hard sell is I think they'd have to wait 5 years for an NCAA Tourney birth. I'm not sure there are enough CAA members in it to allow for a 1 year wait like when the MWC & WAC split.

[ERASU2113]

Let me fix it I looked a little more into it.

Delaware
William & Mary
UMass
Old Dominion
James Madison
Georgia So.
Appalachian St.
Chattanooga
Jacksonville St.
Charlotte (w/FB)

what would make this a hard sell is I think they'd have to wait 5 years for an NCAA Tourney birth. I'm not sure there are enough CAA members in it to allow for a 1 year wait like when the MWC & WAC split.

What if the schools stayed in their present conferences, IE: SoCon, A-10, Big East and so forth in B-Balll until that option came up?

Don't know if that is even logistically possible. Just a thought

[Fresno St. Alum]

not logical. 3 members for SoCon that won't play SoCon football(need replacements). 4 Full member CAA's not playing CAA football along with an affiliate member(still has enough members but would cause problems/hard feelings and the boot).

If it's only 1 school like Jacksonville St. who could work a deal with the OVC it's possible but Jac St. would eventually want all the way in the Belt (like UL-Monroe SLC/Belt)

[henfan]

Let me fix it I looked a little more into it.

Delaware
William & Mary
UMass
Old Dominion
James Madison
Georgia So.
Appalachian St.
Chattanooga
Jacksonville St.
Charlotte (w/FB)

what would make this a hard sell is I think they'd have to wait 5 years for an NCAA Tourney birth. I'm not sure there are enough CAA members in it to allow for a 1 year wait like when the MWC & WAC split.

I'm sure this is all well intentioned, just not very well thought out. You can throw any number of schools into a fantasy scenarios without any thought.

From UD's perspective this would not work at all. Outside of FB, this would be a step down for us across the board. Travel wise, it's a nightmare.

Much to FB fans' chagrin, the world does not revolve around FB. (What to do with our nationally competitive MLAX program, for example? Do these other schools even match up for Olympic sports? How about academically?)

UD, JMU, W&M and ODU all seem very pleased with their CAA affiliation. I'd imagine GA State does so as well. None of these schools are going anywhere anytime soon.

[Fresno St. Alum]

yes there are many flaws to it. It was just an idea based on football. Really though there should be different conferences for different sports(also won't happen but just saying) Gateway/MVC is the best we've got.

[Fresno St. Alum]

"Much to FB fans' chagrin, the world does not revolve around FB" henfan

Football and Basketball make up most of the money for athletics and almost all of the TV exposure

If you want a more realistic outlook on how things might go down look at this



If there are no conference splits there is a way to get a few FCS's in. Here's how.

1.MAC has 13 Fb members the can add a member (full or FB only) it worked like that when Marshall was there.

2.MWC wants to add Boise St. puts them at 10

3.WAC would then go to 10. the list Montana & Montana St. or UC Davis & N.Texas (2 would get in)

4.(If N.Texas) Sun belt could add another Georgia So.

5.Big 10 is looking at (Notre Dame, Missouri, Rutgers, Syracuse). If they add one I say it would be Mizzou. ND doesn't like to share Fb money. If this happened Colorado St. could get in the Big 12. and that would open another spot in the MWC where they could take Houston or Fresno St. trickling down where WAC or C-USA take 1 and another FCS could have a spot in the Sun Belt. Or UTSA w/FB to the C-USA

A bunch of ifs but I've been following conference movement since 1991 and all I can say is that it always changes.

[youwouldno]

I've been saying that the FBS conferences were basically stable for a while now, so obviously I agree with the original piece. One big thing to keep in mind: academic institutions are, by their nature, risk-averse.

Obviously once the moratorium is over FCS programs could bolt for the SBC or independent status. But most aspiring FBS fans conjure up scenarios that lead to their schools being in an FBS conference other than the Sun Belt (though the MAC and C-USA are also very weak, they are at least marginally less putrid).

[Fresno St. Alum]

I don't think a FCS could go right into the C-USA unless the Big East took UCF & or Memphis right when someone like UTSA(w/FB), Charlotte(w/FB) or App St. move up. Which would seem hard to time. Sun Belt, MAC, WAC(if they go to 10 or Boise St. leaves) would be the only option.

Even Marshall (App St. like talent in the 90's) had to go to the MAC first

[Syntax Error]

So there you have it - written from an FBS fan's perspective, NOT an FCS dreamer's perspective. If you move up, you're moving into, most likely, the MAC or Sun Belt. If you're going into the MAC, you're signing up for a conference that isn't aggressively pursuing the "big-time" bowls. If you're going into the Sun Belt, you're secretly hoping to get boomeranged into a good conference if the BCS breaks apart. But according to this guy, there's a near-zero chance of that happening.And that is probably close to reality.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=bO4oI10tF5E

[yosef1969]

I agree that they are somewhat stable in the short term. However travel costs will continue to increase and the vast expanse covered by some conferences has left some conferences in danger.

Conferences like C-USA in particular, to a lesser extent the Big East and in some regards the ACC, may have to re-examine their geographic footprint. A conference that stretches from Wisconsin to Syracuse to South Florida could make less and less sense as travel costs continue to increase. Sure the Big East has money, but alot of the schools on the outlying areas of the footprint are not the wealthiest or most mature programs in the conference.

The 5 year wait for bball autobids is a legitimate consideration in creation of new conference but IMO there will be a significant shake up in the conference alignments in 5 to 10 years and the "super conference" of more than 12 teams will fall to the wayside.

The PAC 10, Big 12, SEC and Big Ten will not change other than ND moving into the Big 10. Each of these conferences has held true to its original footprint. That's why they are stable and why the others are vulnerable to varying degrees.

All it takes is for one conference to falter to send ripples throughout the entire division.

Honestly who would have thought 10-15 years ago the ACC and Big East would look as they do now. Conference alignments have never been "settled" so why would that change now?

[Keeper]

The moratorium covers Division I application only. Any FCS school
can still go for FBS at any time.

But please, no more teams into the BS.
I don't want any more crappy bowl games certified
with a larger field to choose from.

32 certified bowl games alone is one reason
the BS won't soon be reclassified as a smaller subdivision.
Only those schools with an adequate population base/TV market
should consider a foray into FBS.

[813Jag]

I don't think a FCS could go right into the C-USA unless the Big East took UCF & or Memphis right when someone like UTSA(w/FB), Charlotte(w/FB) or App St. move up. Which would seem hard to time. Sun Belt, MAC, WAC(if they go to 10 or Boise St. leaves) would be the only option.

Even Marshall (App St. like talent in the 90's) had to go to the MAC first
I don't really see UCF in the Big East, right now their football program is growing and they're improving their facilities. I think (only my opinion) USF would be a hardsell to allow UCF in. Also IMO USF still really doesn't belong in the Big East.

[Dane96]

1. Why does USF not belong in the Big East?
2. USF would not block UCF. In fact, they are encouraging it. They are seperated by a little over an hour...and they have already told the Big East they would not block the move. Two separate markets completely. Now in the PRO ranks...teams could not be supported in both Tampa and Orlando.

Much different with college. Enough South CarolinaFlorida/GA/Miss/Alabama talent to recruit from and large local fan base capacity.

UCF...is pretty much a go once the Big East figures out what the heck they want to do.

[spaceraider]

The moratorium covers Division I application only. Any FCS school can still go for FBS at any time.....

Wrong. xnonox

Get your information correct.

from a page on the ncaa site titled "Division I Membership Moratorium Frequently Asked Questions" (http://www1.ncaa.org/membership/governance/division_I/DI_Membership_Info/Joining_DI/DIMoratoriumFAQ):

Q. Is it permissible to reclassify membership from the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) to the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) during the moratorium?

A. No. Multidivision reclassification, which is prohibited during the moratorium, covers Division I FCS institutions seeking to reclassify to FBS status. It also covers NCAA Division II and NCAA Division III institutions seeking to reclassify a single men's or women's sport to Division I.

Actually, that FAQ page has a lot of useful information...

[813Jag]

1. Why does USF not belong in the Big East?
2. USF would not block UCF. In fact, they are encouraging it. They are seperated by a little over an hour...and they have already told the Big East they would not block the move. Two separate markets completely. Now in the PRO ranks...teams could not be supported in both Tampa and Orlando.

Much different with college. Enough South CarolinaFlorida/GA/Miss/Alabama talent to recruit from and large local fan base capacity.

UCF...is pretty much a go once the Big East figures out what the heck they want to do.
I guess they changed their stance since they never wanted to play UCF in football. The only reason they played was because of an agreement with CUSA. After this year the only way USF and UCF will play is if they are in the same conference.

USF doesn't belong in the Big East because they're still not ready. Football climbed faster than anyone thought. But once football is over what do they offer?

Have you seen the Sun Dome? How about their baseball facilities? USF is and probably will always be a commuter school.

Tampa doesn't support USF. This town is Gators first, USF still didn't get major pub here even when they were ranked #2.

[Dane96]

I have been to the Sun Dome- shyte hole. However it holds nearly 12,000 people...and is fine by Big East standards. Baseball is getting new facilities...and a host of new dorms are being built. I am sure you are aware of this because you live there, but USF is trying to change the commuter status and it is working with a lot of people moving out of the area further North of North Tampa there is a ton of land up for sale...ton. Look for USF to gobble it up.

I do agree that it is still UF first (my best friend is from Tampa....and his buddies and he are all UF grads). However, in time...the status will change. I really think Tampa will take to them. Remember, they are only DI in football for something like 10 years?!

My only problem is the name...but at the time...they were the southern most Florida state school.

[BearsCountry]

Look at VA Tech as a school that turned things around in its athletic department bc of football success. USF has that same type of potential. Let football become the boss and that money will funnell down to the other sports.

[813Jag]

I have been to the Sun Dome- shyte hole. However it holds nearly 12,000 people...and is fine by Big East standards. Baseball is getting new facilities...and a host of new dorms are being built. I am sure you are aware of this because you live there, but USF is trying to change the commuter status and it is working with a lot of people moving out of the area further North of North Tampa there is a ton of land up for sale...ton. Look for USF to gobble it up.

I do agree that it is still UF first (my best friend is from Tampa....and his buddies and he are all UF grads). However, in time...the status will change. I really think Tampa will take to them. Remember, they are only DI in football for something like 10 years?!

My only problem is the name...but at the time...they were the southern most Florida state school.
They are making improvements but it's going to take alot of work to get the city behind them. My worked attended and worked at USF, so I follow them pretty closely. (I also live almost right next to the school)

My statement may sound pessimistic but I just feel that a couple more years of growing would help. I'm not a USF fan but it pains me to open the Tribune and read about that basketball team. I try to attend as many games as I can, I just wish the city would support more. I mean I saw a Rutgers billboard on I-4. xnonono2x

They are lucky to draw 4,000 people to a game and most times lots of those people are fans of the other team. They had a game against WVU at the Forum and the crowd wasn't great even with free tickets. There's not alot of promotion of the programs.

Anyway if you're ever in the area shoot me a message. We can have a couple of beers. xthumbsupx

[Dane96]

Definitely. I was just there for Gasparilla...always a fun time laughing at rednecks!

[813Jag]

Definitely. I was just there for Gasparilla...always a fun time laughing at rednecks!
That's a year round activity. xlolx

[CollegeSportsInfo]

With all the talk of MVC sponsoring football and upgrading in this thread, I'd rather see the non-football schools leave to form a new conference.

If you were to get 8 schools together from a group such as St. Louis, Xavier, Dayton, Butler, Creighton, Drake, Bradley, Evansville, Duquesne, Detroit, Valpo, Loyola...you'd have one hell of a basketball conference.

[Dane96]

Hmmmm...last I looked Duquense had a good football team.

[Dane96]

As did Dayton.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

With all the talk of MVC sponsoring football and upgrading in this thread, I'd rather see the non-football schools leave to form a new conference.

If you were to get 8 schools together from a group such as St. Louis, Xavier, Dayton, Butler, Creighton, Drake, Bradley, Evansville, Duquesne, Detroit, Valpo, Loyola...you'd have one hell of a basketball conference.

Those are four Pioneer teams, one who's probably joining up sooner rather than later (Detroit), add one NEC team that until this year was non-scholly (Duquesne)... and Virginia, you have a league that sponsors FCS non-scholly football. You might even convince an Evansville, Bradley or Creighton to come out of retirement and join up.

Move Morehead State to the OVC in football, San Diego to the Great West, and all of a suddent you allow Jacksonville, Campbell, Kennesaw State (future), Belmont (future), Davidson, Marist and Iona to for the Atlantic Sun non-scholarship conference.

Hmmm... xeyebrowx

[Fear The Beard]

That would be a really good conference. A lot of dedicated and diehard fans at each school on that list. We can only dream can't we?

I think you should consider ECU and Marshall. Chattanooga and Charlotte just might not work out.

[mathman]

I detect a negative Big East bias: "Miami, BC, and VT had an opportunity to move up football-wise and laterally basketball-wise, and they took it."

Not so sure the final Conference ratings support that. Sagarin doesn't. xnodx
I agree. It was:

Big East
Miami
Virginia Tech
Boston College
Pittsburgh
Syracuse
Rutgers
Temple*
West Virginia

* kicked out

ACC
Florida State
Virginia
Clemson
North Carolina
North Carolina State
Wake Forest
Duke
Georgia Tech
Maryland

I think the Big East paired up well against the ACC (order given not implying pairings). So to me it was a lateral move football-wise as well. What gave the ACC leverage was that the ACC was a better fit for Miami in terms of geography. After that, the ACC seemed more lucrative so the other teams followed. The ACC wanted Syracuse but the government of Virginia was able to twist Virginia's arm to back Virginia Tech's inclusion (Virginia didn't want them) So to make expansion happen, the ACC had to take Virginia Tech.

Funny how now in football, Miami's fortune's have gone bad and Virginia Tech and Boston College are making the ACC look good. And the Big East has more or less recovered from the defections.

I understand Villanova's and Georgetown's positions on not moving up, but really...there are FBS and even FCS teams who'd just kill to be in their positions in the Big East. I think Nova and Gtown are just wasting this opportunity.

[Fresno St. Alum]

Nova is, G'town doesn't have it

[Hoyadestroya85]

i honestly think that we play at a higher level than the lower schools in the big east..
Gtown is ***** in football

[Cocky]

JSU's consultants findings are due next week. The early reports are telling the BOT and Pres we have some areas of concern. Not sure if it has a direct yes or no on moving.
The other interesting bit is the conference choices are Sun Belt and talks have supposely occurred about starting a new conference. The Anniston Star has a article but you have to pay to see it. If I can find the article free I will link it.

[Cocky]

Here is the link.
http://www.gojaxstate.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=16403#16403

[Fresno St. Alum]

Question is why would WKU leave the Belt for a new conference? New conference could get a bowl game in football but there would probably be a 5 year wait on a b-ball auto-bid. WKU usually has a good b-ball team, don't think they'd do that.

App St. & Georgia So. would work. Texas St., UTSA(w/fb), Lamar(w/fb) would work if you want to string the conf out that far. Also might want to talk Charlotte(w/fb) & Chattanooga into this. That would give you 8. A lot of ifs though. JMU & UMass wouldn't work in this conf.

[Fresno St. Alum]

here's a map. at least Lamar is on the east end of Texas, the other 2 are on the south central end.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/6/60/Cbd1.PNG

[Fresno St. Alum]

I like bearcountry's plan as the easiest switch over. Not saying it would ever happen.

MVC
S.Illinois
N.Iowa
Illinois St.
Missouri St.
Indiana St.
N.Dakota St.
S.Dakota St.
Youngstown St.
Drake(PFL for fb)
Wichita St.(no fb)
Creighton(no fb)
Bradley(no fb)

Evansville replaces YSU in the Horizon. Also was a former member of that conference.

W.Illinois either goes to the OVC or stays in the Summit & joins the 5 GWFC schools.

[Appinator]

Opened up the Sunday Charlotte Observer and found this article:

http://www.charlotte.com/niners/story/464640.html

This is clearly written by someone who is wide-eyed about the whole football creation process. One of my favorite quotes from a consultant that they hired:

"Leagues in (FBS) are always looking for schools to join. It won't be a problem for (Charlotte)."

I know it won't be as easy as they think, but Charlotte is in a unique position with their TV market. The article goes over the likely conference affiliations, which is pretty comprehensive. They seemed to reach out to the conference offices for comment, one of which being from the Southern:

"(Charlotte) could hang out for a few years as an independent," said Southern Conference commissioner John Iamarino, who added that his league wouldn't consider Charlotte as an interim member. "It would be a challenge with scheduling, but that would probably be the least disruptive way."

Pretty much saying, if your going to treat us like a stepping-stone, we'll just treat you the same way.

By the way, it's my 100th post, pretty stoked.

[DFW HOYA]

i honestly think that we play at a higher level than the lower schools in the big east..
Gtown is ***** in football

Thank you for your lack of contribution to this thread.

So, if Richmond can schedule Georgetown without leading to an alumni revolt on playing a Patriot League team, why won't Andy Talley do the same?? xeyebrowx

[Keeper]

Thanx Spaceraider for the correction.
I was looking for that.

At least there is no moratorium against speculation and rumors.
Only 7 months to kickoff........{sigh}

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Here is the link.
http://www.gojaxstate.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=16403#16403

Too bad the Anniston Star is subscription-only.

Sounds like the report was pretty fair in its assessments, and (if the columnists' hunches are true) that they would proceed with caution and build up infrastructure and marketing first. For Jax State I can appreciate their frustration since Troy, your biggest rival, jumped to FBS, but although some folks seem to think Troy is a success at the FBS level, I happen to think otherwise.

And Troy doesn't seem to be leaving the Sun Belt any time soon, either - the point of the original blog posting.

[Fresno St. Alum]

Troy not leaving the sun belt but they are a real good team in the sun belt. face it not everyone can get into the C-USA, the sun belt needs more schools with Troy & FAU type talent. The sun belt just needs to try and get better as a whole