Week 11 Playoff Prognostication

[Professor Chaos]

One week until the playoff selections are announced so this will be my final playoff prognostication breakdown of the season as there won't be much time to speculate on the potential selections after next week's games before they're announced. I broke it down by conference listing the teams in order from where I think (using Massey as a guide) each team sits in terms of easiest path to the playoffs (or who's already in) to toughest path within their conference. You can see all of Massey's updated numbers at https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/fcs/ratings. The numbers in brackets behind each team is Massey's expected remaining wins and losses and the percentage in parenthesis behind each remaining game is Massey's percentage that each team wins that respective game. Using Massey percentages to project the remaining games I put together what I think would be the field at the bottom of this post if it all played out like it's supposed to (which we all know it won't).



Big Sky
Montana St joined Montana as a lock and both are almost certainly going to be seeded despite what happens in their matchup this week - I think Montana would be the #2 seed with a win while Montana St would probably be the #3 (behind Furman) if they win. Idaho may have played themselves out of the seeds with a loss @Weber St but they're still likely in the playoffs and, assuming they beat Idaho St this week, might still sneak out a seed. That UC Davis/Sac St game is interesting - Massey sees it as virtually a toss up so if UC Davis wins they've almost got to get in over Sac St but would that Stanford win be enough to get Sac St in at 7-4 (4-4)? I'd tend to think so but they would be in for a sweat. It looks like the Big Sky will get at least 4 in and possibly 5 if UC Davis wins this week - 2 of them should be seeded with a possibility of 3 seeds.

Locked in
Montana 9-1 (6-1) [0.43/0.57] - Montana St (43%)
Montana St 8-2 (6-1) [0.57/0.43] - @Montana (57%)

Likely in
Idaho 7-3 (5-2) [0.89/0.11] - Idaho St (89%)
Sac St 7-3 (4-3) [0.52/0.48] - @UC Davis (52%)

Work left to do
UC Davis 6-4 (4-3) [0.48/0.52] - Sac St (48%)


CAA
Three CAA teams locked themselves into the playoffs yesterday but there's a still a lot to be decided in terms of who amongst them is seeded first/higher. I think the winner of that Delaware/Nova game is likely looking at a #5-#7 seed. Nova winning would be a boost for Albany since their head-to-head win over Nova probably gets them the highest CAA seed (as long as they beat Monmouth) but I'm thinking they've got a strong shot at a seed regardless. I'm having a hard time seeing more than one playoff bid from the group in the "work left to do" category. I think the loser of Richmond/William & Mary is out and even if W&M wins I think the bubble is probably too tough for them to crack. Likewise, if URI beats Towson I think they're still on the wrong side of the bubble but a Richmond win might give them a bit more hope. I'm thinking 3 playoff bids is the number for the CAA unless Richmond beats W&M, then it's 4, with 1-2 seeds (probably in the #5-#8 range).

Locked in
Delaware 8-2 (6-1) [0.59/0.41] - Nova (59%)
Villanova 8-2 (6-1) [0.41/0.59] - @Delaware (41%)
Albany 8-3 (6-1) [0.61/0.39] - Monmouth (61%)

Work left to do
Richmond 7-3 (6-1) [0.42/0.58] - @W&M (42%)
William & Mary 6-4 (4-3) [0.58/0.42] - Richmond (58%)
Rhode Island 6-4 (4-3) [0.60/0.40] - @Towson (60%)


MVFC
The list of teams here didn't shrink but the number of bids they'll get may have with UNI's loss to Missouri St. SDSU is locked in and I'm thinking they've already locked up the #1 seed as well (although it's very unlikely they lose to Missouri St anyway). USD has gotten back-to-back huge wins and might be looking at a #4 seed if they beat WIU. NDSU picked up a monster win over SIU and I think they're probably in even if they lose at UNI next week but it would be a sweat - I think they could sneak into a #7 or #8 seed with a win. The rest is a mess... IMO the only simple thing is UNI - they're in if they beat beat NDSU (which means they would have wins over 2 or 3 fellow MVFC bubble teams) and out if they lose. Even the Illinois St @ UND game isn't simple - I think UND is in with a win but I wonder about Illinois St at 7-4 as that EIU loss could come back to bite them if both teams are on the bubble. SIU and YSU should get to 7-4 - both are probably in pretty good shape if they get there since SIU has wins over FBS NIU and Austin Peay and YSU has a convincing win over SIU (an NDSU win over UNI would help YSU's chances). I still think the MVFC gets 6 bids but the bubble tightened yesterday so 5 is still a possibility but 7 is now most likely out of the question. There might just be 2 seeds in this group with a chance at 3.

Locked in
SDSU 10-0 (7-0) [0.96/0.04] - Missouri St (96%)
USD 8-2 (6-1) [0.98/0.02] - @WIU (98%)

Likely in
NDSU 7-3 (4-3) [0.72/0.28] - @UNI (72%)

Work left do to
SIU 6-4 (3-4) [0.99/0.01] - Indiana St (99%)
UNI 6-4 (5-2) [0.28/0.72] - NDSU (28%)
YSU 6-4 (4-3) [0.86/0.14] - @Murray St (86%)
UND 6-4 (4-3) [0.62/0.38] - Illinois St (62%)
Illinois St 6-4 (4-3) [0.38/0.62] - @UND (38%)


SOCON
Mercer joined Furman amongst the locks in the SOCON (well done Bears for leaving the committee no outs this year to snub you with). Furman should be the #2 or #3 seed as long as they take care of business against Wofford. Western Carolina is probably in although in the unlikely event that they end their season with a bad loss to VMI they might not want to get too comfy. Chattanooga is going to be interesting - unless a meteor hits Bama's sideline next week they'll finish 7-4 with a good win over Mercer but a bad loss to UNA and nothing else of note on their resume (although Samford beating UTM could help them). I think they're going to be right in the middle of the bubble so who knows. It seems likely this league gets at least 3 bids and could get 4 with a little help.

Locked in
Furman 9-1 (7-0) [0.96/0.04] - @Wofford (96%)
Mercer 8-3 (6-2)

Likely in
Western Carolina 7-3 (5-2) [0.80/0.20] - @VMI (80%)

Work left to do
Chattanooga 7-3 (6-2) [0.00/1.00] - @Bama (~0%)


OVC/Big South
Things are finally starting to clear up in the OVC/Big South. Gardner-Webb is the autobid with a win over CSU and out if they lose (giving UTM the auto). UTM is likely in regardless if they beat Samford since they would get them to 9-2. EIU picked up a big win over Tennessee St yesterday but still seems destined for the bubble even at 8-3 - Illinois St winning @UND next Saturday would help EIU's chances I think but even with that it seems unlikely especially if UTM is already getting an at-large. This league has got a good chance of getting one at-large but two seems pretty unlikely.

Work left to do
UT Martin 8-2 (5-1) [0.54/0.46] - @Samford (54%)
EIU 7-3 (3-2) [0.85/0.15] - @RMU (85%)
Gardner-Webb 6-4 (4-1) [0.81/0.19] - CSU (81%)


Others
The autobids from the Patriot, SLC, and UAC will all come from teams in this group. In the Southland Nicholls has already locked up the autobid. In the Patriot a Lafayette win over Lehigh would secure the autobid and eliminate Holy Cross - Lafayette might have a shot at an at-large at 8-3 but that would be a bad loss to take the day before Selection Sunday. In the UAC the top two play each other with the winner getting the auto - UCA needs to win or they're out but APSU might have a shot if they lose although I think their convincing loss to SIU early in the season might doom them. UIW and NCCU are going to be polarizing for at-large consideration - UIW has a sub-D1 win and a forfeit win so they'll only have 7 actual D1 wins at most and none of those wins are all that impressive. NCCU could still be the MEAC's Celebration Bowl rep if Morgan St beats Howard next week but if not I don't think it's a given they're in at 9-2 (with sub-D1 win) either - they have a decent win over Elon but that's it and Massey rates them as the #53 team in the FCS right now with a finishing SOS of #99 so the computers won't like them. In short APSU (at 8-3), Lafayette (at 8-3), NCCU, and UIW all have a shot at an at-large but I don't think anyone from this group makes it outside of the autos.

Locked in
SLC Auto: Nicholls 5-4 (6-0) [0.41/0.59] - @SLU (45%)

Work left to do
Austin Peay 8-2 (5-0) [0.65/0.35] - UCA (65%)
Lafayette 8-2 (4-1) [1.18/0.82] - Fordham (46%), @Lehigh (73%)
North Carolina Central 8-2 (3-1) [0.91/0.09] - Delaware St (91%)
Incarnate Word 7-2 (5-1) [0.90/0.10] - @HCU (90%)
UCA 7-3 (4-1) [0.35/0.65] - @APSU (35%)
Holy Cross 6-4 (4-1) [0.93/0.07] - Georgetown (93%)


The Field

So there's 14 at-large available (1 more than last year with the Big South and OVC merging) - this is where I see them landing if things go to plan based on Massey odds over the final week (which of course they won't) - the lists includes the autos so there's one additional team for each conference on top of the at-larges:
Big Sky: 3 - Montana St (9-2), Montana (9-2), Idaho (8-3), Sac St (8-3)
CAA: 2 - Delaware (9-2), Albany (9-3), Villanova (8-3)
MVFC: 5 - SDSU (11-0), USD (9-2), NDSU (8-3), UND (7-4), YSU (7-4), SIU (7-4)
SOCON: 3 - Furman (10-1), Mercer (8-3), WCU (8-3), Chattanooga (7-4)
OVC/Big South: 1 - Gardner-Webb (7-4 - autobid), UTM (9-2)

The other 5 autos:
Patriot: Lafayette (9-2)
UAC: APSU (9-2)
SLC: Nicholls (5-5)
NEC: Duquesne (6-5)
Pioneer: Davidson (8-3)

NOTE: It doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of the playoffs but the NEC and Patriot autobids are messy - I don't believe Merrimack is postseason eligible so Duquesne should be the NEC auto even if they lose to Merrimack next Saturday. Drake is the Pioneer auto if they beat Butler but Massey projects them to lose and in that case I think Davidson would win the tie breaker due to them beating Butler and Drake losing to Butler.

The seeds
1. SDSU (11-0)
2. Furman (10-1)
3. Montana St (9-2)
4. USD (9-2)
5. Montana (9-2)
6. Delaware (9-2)
7. Albany (9-3)
8. Idaho (8-3)

Last 4 in: YSU (7-4), UTM (9-2), SIU (7-4), Chattanooga (7-4)
First 4 out: UIW (8-2), NCCU (9-2), EIU (8-3), William & Mary (7-4)

Others on the outside looking in amongst the teams I've listed above: Richmond (7-4), Rhode Island (7-4), UCA (7-4), Holy Cross (7-4), UC Davis (6-5), UNI (6-5), Illinois St (6-5)

I shuffled the seeds up a bit this week with Idaho's loss and I think I've been undervaluing Albany's seed chances (although not as badly as the Coaches Poll) which knocks a projected 8-3 NDSU out of the seeds. The bubble actually didn't turn out as tough as I thought it was going to be but I'm also not super convinced that the committee will see the shiny W-L records of UIW and NCCU as underwhelmingly as I did. There's some games next Saturday that could throw the bubble into pandemonium though like Sac St @ UC Davis, Richmond @ William & Mary, and NDSU @ UNI along with some others so these projections are guesses at best.

What do you think? Feel free to throw out your projection - it's kind of a fun exercise IMO.

[JacksFan40]

For the Pioneer I believe Drake has already clinched the auto-bid even if they lose to Butler. Davidson does have a win over Butler, but Drake has a win over Morehead who beat Davidson yesterday. I believe Drake’s win over St. Thomas is the deciding factor in a tie between Drake and Davidson.

[caribbeanhen]

For the Pioneer I believe Drake has already clinched the auto-bid even if they lose to Butler. Davidson does have a win over Butler, but Drake has a win over Morehead who beat Davidson yesterday. I believe Drake’s win over St. Thomas is the deciding factor in a tie between Drake and Davidson.

Pioneer
The Pioneer Football League automatic bid can be clinched if the following happens in Week 12:


Drake wins the auto-bid IF:

Drake def. Butler
Dayton def. Davidson


Davidson wins the auto-bid IF:

Butler def. Drake AND Davidson def. Dayton


https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2023-11-11/2023-fcs-playoffs-automatic-bid-tracker-and-aq-scenarios

[Paladin1aa]

Well thought out as usual. However, the corrupt committee is anyones guess. Their “standards” one year become lies the next. They are constantly an embarrassment as the NCAA.

You are spot on in the MVFC.

[FUBeAR]

FUBeAR nominates Professor Chaos for permanent Chair of the FCS Playoff Selection Committee and for another role, but FUBeAR will have to post about that in another forum.

OUTSTANDING WORK!

If he felt the Committee had your wisdom, prescience, and clarity of thought, FUBeAR would be able to sleep much easier in the next week.

[SpiderJPO]

No respect for Richmond as mentioned as an afterthought clearly thinking WM will win this week. If Richmond beats WM and ends in a three way tie for first in CAA at 7-1 and 8-3 overall they should be in playoffs. Currently on a five game winning streak after dominating Elon yesterday who last week beat everyone's favorite CAA darling in Deleware.

[SDFS]

Are saying 5 or 6 for MVFC?

MVFC: 5 - SDSU (11-0), USD (9-2), NDSU (8-3), UND (7-4), YSU (7-4), SIU (7-4)


Last 4 in: YSU (7-4), UTM (9-2), SIU (7-4), Chattanooga (7-4)

[Professor]

I think NCCU will get in @ 9-2

If Richmond wins , they are in as well

[Chalupa Batman]

Are saying 5 or 6 for MVFC?

MVFC: 5 - SDSU (11-0), USD (9-2), NDSU (8-3), UND (7-4), YSU (7-4), SIU (7-4)


Last 4 in: YSU (7-4), UTM (9-2), SIU (7-4), Chattanooga (7-4)

He’s saying 5 at larges, but he includes the auto bid when listing the teams from each conference he thinks will be in.

[Professor Chaos]

Are saying 5 or 6 for MVFC?

MVFC: 5 - SDSU (11-0), USD (9-2), NDSU (8-3), UND (7-4), YSU (7-4), SIU (7-4)


Last 4 in: YSU (7-4), UTM (9-2), SIU (7-4), Chattanooga (7-4)


He’s saying 5 at larges, but he includes the auto bid when listing the teams from each conference he thinks will be in.
Yep, I think UND is the 4th team (and first 7-4 team) in from the MVFC if the week 12 games play out like Massey projects so they're in without even being in my last 4 in (but probably would be the 5th to last team in if it plays out like that).

[Professor Chaos]

No respect for Richmond as mentioned as an afterthought clearly thinking WM will win this week. If Richmond beats WM and ends in a three way tie for first in CAA at 7-1 and 8-3 overall they should be in playoffs. Currently on a five game winning streak after dominating Elon yesterday who last week beat everyone's favorite CAA darling in Deleware.


I think NCCU will get in @ 9-2

If Richmond wins , they are in as well
Agreed that if Richmond wins they're in. I think they're in trouble if they lose to William & Mary as Massey projects.

NCCU is an enigma - a case can be made for them if you ignore their SOS and lack of quality wins and focus more on their W-L record. A case could be made against them if you ignore their W-L record and focus more on their SOS (or lack thereof) and lack of quality wins. Plus that loss to Howard looks really bad to me - they were destroyed when Howard hadn't beaten a D1 team that badly all season.

[FUBeAR]

Good info in here for all of us peeps…

https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/championships/sports/football/d1/2023-24D1MFB_PreChampManual.pdf

NCAA 2023 DIVISION I FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP
PRE-CHAMPIONSHIP 2023-24 MANUAL
Last Updated Sept. 27, 2023



*Also seems to indicate in this document that Merrimack IS Playoff eligible. Stonehill is not until 2026.

[F'N Hawks]

Not sure I would call beating SIU a “monster win”. 6-4 and they peaked early and haven’t looked very good since. It must mean UND win over NDSU was really monstrous lol

[Professor Chaos]

Not sure I would call beating SIU a “monster win”. 6-4 and they peaked early and haven’t looked very good since. It must mean UND win over NDSU was really monstrous lol
It was... don't you agree? I know all your players and coaches thought it was. That win would propel UND into the playoffs at 7-4 whereas had they lost to NDSU and beaten UNI (meaning UNI would be sitting at 5-5 right now) I think UND would be pretty iffy even if they beat Illinois St to get to 7-4.

I used similar logic for NDSU's win over SIU because that's a convincing win over a team that's almost certainly going to finish 7-4 and in the playoff discussion at the very least - and it vaults NDSU in front of YSU as well in the conference pecking order due to better OOC wins. That puts NDSU at #5 in the MVFC pecking order at worst even if they lose next week which puts them in the playoffs regardless. Again, this is all my opinion on how the MVFC shakes out if all these teams finish at 7-4 but I think that win put NDSU into the playoff field which is a big deal.

[F'N Hawks]

It was... don't you agree? I know all your players and coaches thought it was. That win would propel UND into the playoffs at 7-4 whereas had they lost to NDSU and beaten UNI (meaning UNI would be sitting at 5-5 right now) I think UND would be pretty iffy even if they beat Illinois St to get to 7-4.

I used similar logic for NDSU's win over SIU because that's a convincing win over a team that's almost certainly going to finish 7-4 and in the playoff discussion at the very least - and it vaults NDSU in front of YSU as well in the conference pecking order due to better OOC wins. That puts NDSU at #5 in the MVFC pecking order at worst even if they lose next week which puts them in the playoffs regardless. Again, this is all my opinion on how the MVFC shakes out if all these teams finish at 7-4 but I think that win put NDSU into the playoff field which is a big deal.

Fair enough, thank you for laying all this out every week!

[SDFS]

Yep, I think UND is the 4th team (and first 7-4 team) in from the MVFC if the week 12 games play out like Massey projects so they're in without even being in my last 4 in (but probably would be the 5th to last team in if it plays out like that).

OK, thanks for the clarification. Nice job with your stuff. Well thought out. The biggest issue with the playoffs this year is going to be the East / Western regional brackets. The MV and Big Sky are all over the top 15 in many computer ranking systems.

[WrenFGun]

Boy this is an absolutely brutal bubble. I think it's very likely that the committee doesn't take a non 8 WIN team outside of MVFC. In that case, I think Chattanooga is very unlikely to make the field, especially as a 4th team from the SOCON. Of course, Chattanooga got woofed last year in favor of UD, so maybe they get a favor.

The committee has HISTORICALLY given teams with high rankings and suspect computer #'s the benefit of the doubt. A good example of this is when Kennesaw State made it a few years ago after the run they'd had the previous year. I would be stunned if one of NC Central/UIW is not in this field, and would be mildly surprised if both aren't in, even if neither deserve it.

Holy Cross is a damn good team -- for their sake I'm hoping Lehigh pulls off the upset over Lafayette.

Richmond would finish the season 8-1 with a win over W&M and are a mortal lock to get in with a win. I think Rhode Island and William and Mary are already playing for bragging rights at this point. I'd believe the committee has decided to make planning easy on themselves though and will take the winner of Richmond/WM regardless of whether WM deserves it.

I think your initial bracket is spot on; I'd swap in Richmond for Chattanooga and call it a day; if Richmond loses, I'd expect UIW/NCCU to get a bigtime look.

[UNHWildcat18]

I see Richmond winning and getting an at large over chatty. I also see the MVFC losing one of the 2 7-4 at large spots to the IUW/NCCU debacle.

Hope Morgan State beats Howard though so the MEAC/SWAC sends no at larges...

[Professor Chaos]

If the playoffs started this week and we used the AGS Poll as a guide for the 14 at-large selections they would be (I just gave Montana and Delaware their conference's respective autobid even though it's still TBD - all those teams who could get those autobids are easily in anyway):

1. Montana St (4)
2. South Dakota (5)
3. Idaho (7)
4. Albany (8)
5. Villanova (9)
6. Sacramento St (10)
7. NDSU (11)
8. Chattanooga (12)
9. WCU (14)
10. UTM (15)
11. Mercer (16)
12. UND (17)
13. SIU (19T)
14. NCCU (19T)

On the outside looking in:
UNI (21)
YSU (22)
Incarnate Word (23)
Richmond (26)
Central Arkansas (27)


So based on these here are the big week 12 games for the playoff bubble:
UTM @ Samford - A Samford win would help all the bubble teams out and likely knock UTM out but seems UTM would be safely in with a win
Illinois St @ UND - An Illinois St win would probably soften the bubble since it knocks UND out and Illinois St is probably on the outside looking in even at 7-4
Morgan St @ Howard - A Morgan St win means NCCU goes to the Celebration Bowl (assuming they beat Delaware St) - a Howard win puts NCCU squarely on the bubble
NDSU @ UNI - UNI would play themselves in with a win tightening the bubble because I think NDSU would still be in whereas UNI is out with a loss
Richmond @ William & Mary - Richmond is currently at #26 in the AGS consensus needing to hop over 4 teams to get into the field - if they win they could end up with the CAA auto for all I know but I'd have to think they're in with a win - a William & Mary win softens the bubble since I don't think either have a particular strong case for an at-large at 7-4
Central Arkansas @ Austin Peay - A UCA wins gives them the auto and APSU would slot in as the 9th at-large now so they could fall a bit and still make it - the bubble wants APSU to win that game

So YSU and UIW would need some help to make the field if the AGS consensus mirrors the committee since neither is going to play a game this week that will move the needle in their favor towards getting an at-large bid. Of course the selection committee could always see things differently than the AGS consensus but they've been pretty close to each other over the years (see https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?216083-Which-poll-is-the-most-accurate-playoff-predictor).

[atthewbon]

I think AGS is too high on Chattanooga. I think there is a chance they get in but they will be squarely on the bubble without a win over Bama. I think it would be hard for them to get in over a 7-4 MVFC team

[Pards Rule]

Lafayette will play loser of Nova vs Delaware expecially if Nova loses? Or could we go to Austin Peay or UT Martin or Chatty?

[Chalupa Batman]

If the playoffs started this week and we used the AGS Poll as a guide for the 14 at-large selections they would be (I just gave Montana and Delaware their conference's respective autobid even though it's still TBD - all those teams who could get those autobids are easily in anyway):

1. Montana St (4)
2. South Dakota (5)
3. Idaho (7)
4. Albany (8)
5. Villanova (9)
6. Sacramento St (10)
7. NDSU (11)
8. Chattanooga (12)
9. WCU (14)
10. UTM (15)
11. Mercer (16)
12. UND (17)
13. SIU (19T)
14. NCCU (19T)

On the outside looking in:
UNI (21)
YSU (22)
Incarnate Word (23)
Richmond (26)
Central Arkansas (27)


Here's what I came up with for an at-the-moment bracket:


Not predicting home/away teams in first round, just matchups.

Sac State/UT Martin @ #1 South Dakota State
Youngstown State/Duquesne @ #8 Delaware

Northern Iowa/Drake @ #4 South Dakota
Western Carolina/Gardner-Webb @ #5 Montana State

North Dakota/Mercer @ #3 Montana
Lafayette/Villanova @ #6 Albany

Austin Peay/Chattanooga @ #2 Furman
North Dakota State/Nicholls @ #7 Idaho

Basically I took out the last two in from the AGS selected field (Southern Illinois & North Carolina Central) and put in the first two out (Youngstown State & Northern Iowa).

[Pards Rule]

Here's what I came up with for an at-the-moment bracket:


Not predicting home/away teams in first round, just matchups.

Sac State/UT Martin @ #1 South Dakota State
Youngstown State/Duquesne @ #8 Delaware

Northern Iowa/Drake @ #4 South Dakota
Western Carolina/Gardner-Webb @ #5 Montana State

North Dakota/Mercer @ #3 Montana
Lafayette/Villanova @ #6 Albany

Austin Peay/Chattanooga @ #2 Furman
North Dakota State/Nicholls @ #7 Idaho

Basically I took out the last two in from the AGS selected field (Southern Illinois & North Carolina Central) and put in the first two out (Youngstown State & Northern Iowa).
Thx CB!!

[Professor Chaos]

Here's what I came up with for an at-the-moment bracket:


Not predicting home/away teams in first round, just matchups.

Sac State/UT Martin @ #1 South Dakota State
Youngstown State/Duquesne @ #8 Delaware

Northern Iowa/Drake @ #4 South Dakota
Western Carolina/Gardner-Webb @ #5 Montana State

North Dakota/Mercer @ #3 Montana
Lafayette/Villanova @ #6 Albany

Austin Peay/Chattanooga @ #2 Furman
North Dakota State/Nicholls @ #7 Idaho

Basically I took out the last two in from the AGS selected field (Southern Illinois & North Carolina Central) and put in the first two out (Youngstown State & Northern Iowa).
I feel like if both NDSU and UND are unseeded that one of them gets fed into SDSU. UNI (if they make it) feeding into USD seems very plausible since they didn't play in the regular season.

16 seeds can't get here soon enough...

[B&G]

I haven't posted here in a long time and I don't follow things as closely as I used to once App State went FBS. Good to see the site still going strong. I'm popping in to pass along some info. I have ties to a source at Furman and a source at Mercer. They both independently told me they expect to be queued up to face off in the 2nd round. Both parties told me they had a feeling it would be G-Webb vs Mercer in Round 1. My Mercer source said they are going to go all-in to make sure they win the bid to host the 1st round regardless of the opposition. I think you can take that part as gospel for anyone making their predictions.

Good luck everyone.

[caribbeanhen]

Here's what I came up with for an at-the-moment bracket:


Not predicting home/away teams in first round, just matchups.

Sac State/UT Martin @ #1 South Dakota State
Youngstown State/Duquesne @ #8 Delaware

Northern Iowa/Drake @ #4 South Dakota
Western Carolina/Gardner-Webb @ #5 Montana State

North Dakota/Mercer @ #3 Montana
Lafayette/Villanova @ #6 Albany

Austin Peay/Chattanooga @ #2 Furman
North Dakota State/Nicholls @ #7 Idaho

Basically I took out the last two in from the AGS selected field (Southern Illinois & North Carolina Central) and put in the first two out (Youngstown State & Northern Iowa).

hopefully Delaware doesn’t have to play “Doo Cans” for the second time at home this year

Chalupa, Seed us but toss us some fresh chicken feed

[Chalupa Batman]

I feel like if both NDSU and UND are unseeded that one of them gets fed into SDSU. UNI (if they make it) feeding into USD seems very plausible since they didn't play in the regular season.

16 seeds can't get here soon enough...

I initially had North Dakota/Mercer going to SDSU, but then that puts 5 Valley teams on one side of the bracket and only 1 team on the other. I know technically that qualifies for splitting up the conference in the bracket but I wanted to make it 4 & 2 at least. Lafayette/Villanova going to Albany wasn't getting split up, nor was Austin Peay/Chattanooga going to Furman. And I already had NDSU/Nicholls going to Idaho so I just swapped the UND/Mercer & Sac State/UT Martin matchups. UNI/Drake going to South Dakota & Youngstown State/Duquesne going to Delaware make too much sense to me to split up those pods as well.


Edit: Though now I see I have UT Martin & Gardner-Webb on the same side of the bracket, so to split them up I think swapping WCU/Gardner-Webb & Austin Peay/Chattanooga makes sense. Which makes the bracket look like:

Sac State/UT Martin @ #1 South Dakota State
Youngstown State/Duquesne @ #8 Delaware

Northern Iowa/Drake @ #4 South Dakota
Austin Peay/Chattanooga @ #5 Montana State

North Dakota/Mercer @ #3 Montana
Lafayette/Villanova @ #6 Albany

Western Carolina/Gardner-Webb @ #2 Furman
North Dakota State/Nicholls @ #7 Idaho

[Chalupa Batman]

hopefully Delaware doesn’t have to play “Doo Cans” for the second time at home this year

Chalupa, Seed us but toss us some fresh chicken feed

I hear ya. But to ensure bus trips you're either getting Youngstown/Duquesne or Villanova/Lafayette. Neither Youngstown/Duquesne to Albany is a bus trip but Youngstown/Duquesne to Newark is so that's what you get.

[SteelSD]

hopefully Delaware doesn’t have to play “Doo Cans” for the second time at home this year

Chalupa, Seed us but toss us some fresh chicken feed
Don't see any way that Duquesne would beat YSU and the Guins would be a very tough out for Delaware. But at least the Delaware fans/team are very familiar with Brookings!

[caribbeanhen]

I hear ya. But to ensure bus trips you're either getting Youngstown/Duquesne or Villanova/Lafayette. Neither Youngstown/Duquesne to Albany is a bus trip but Youngstown/Duquesne to Newark is so that's what you get.

Double Yuck

We’re playing Nova this Saturday

Might have to engage the Puerto Rican mafia and have some buses tires slashed 😆

[MSUBobcat]

hopefully Delaware doesn’t have to play “Doo Cans” for the second time at home this year

Chalupa, Seed us but toss us some fresh chicken feed

Duquesne wetting themselves against Stonehill opened the door for Merrimack to win the NEC AQ in their first, and last, year of eligibility. Massey has it as a coin flip slightly favoring the home team, Merrimack. Who's ready for a 6-5 (5-5 vs D-I) team in the playoffs!!!

[caribbeanhen]

The Selection committee is in desperate need of a FCS sugar daddy

His job primary job would be to trump those stupid bus trip games with cash to pay for as many chartered flights as necessary

Make the playoffs good again!

[wcugrad95]

If we want the best teams, we should not punish say the #9 team having to play possibly the #10 team in round 1 just because they are close to one another. I know they won't do anything regarding the bidding system either (because it gives the NCAA money), but that is pretty shady, too. Just rank them all and go #9 vs #24, #10 vs #23, #11 vs #22....

[Professor Chaos]

If we want the best teams, we should not punish say the #9 team having to play possibly the #10 team in round 1 just because they are close to one another. I know they won't do anything regarding the bidding system either (because it gives the NCAA money), but that is pretty shady, too. Just rank them all and go #9 vs #24, #10 vs #23, #11 vs #22....
This will hopefully be the last year we have to worry about that in the FCS playoffs: https://www.inforum.com/sports/bison-media-zone/mens-sports/ncaa-council-votes-against-seeding-16-fcs-playoff-teams-for-2023-season


“The good news is I think the support for those enhancements across all sports and most specifically seeding 16 for football is there,” she said. “It’s just a function of when.”

It appears “when” will happen in the fall of 2024. Viverito said she believes it will become official well before this time [written in June 2023] next year, perhaps approved by the Division I Board of Directors through its budget process.

[Pards Rule]

The Selection committee is in desperate need of a FCS sugar daddy

His job primary job would be to trump those stupid bus trip games with cash to pay for as many chartered flights as necessary

Make the playoffs good again!

Agreed! Lafayette has one in Jack Bourger who has a jet. He has flown team on occasion.

[Pards Rule]

I haven't posted here in a long time and I don't follow things as closely as I used to once App State went FBS. Good to see the site still going strong. I'm popping in to pass along some info. I have ties to a source at Furman and a source at Mercer. They both independently told me they expect to be queued up to face off in the 2nd round. Both parties told me they had a feeling it would be G-Webb vs Mercer in Round 1. My Mercer source said they are going to go all-in to make sure they win the bid to host the 1st round regardless of the opposition. I think you can take that part as gospel for anyone making their predictions.

Good luck everyone.

Welcome back. I wish I had seen that classic Lafayete-App State playoff game in 2005

[Sitting Bull]

The Selection committee is in desperate need of a FCS sugar daddy

His job primary job would be to trump those stupid bus trip games with cash to pay for as many chartered flights as necessary

Make the playoffs good again!

Given the opening round is Thanksgiving weekend, I think setting up the games by proximity makes sense. After the opening round, I think they already move them around.

[FUBeAR]

I haven't posted here in a long time and I don't follow things as closely as I used to once App State went FBS. Good to see the site still going strong. I'm popping in to pass along some info. I have ties to a source at Furman and a source at Mercer. They both independently told me they expect to be queued up to face off in the 2nd round. Both parties told me they had a feeling it would be G-Webb vs Mercer in Round 1. My Mercer source said they are going to go all-in to make sure they win the bid to host the 1st round regardless of the opposition. I think you can take that part as gospel for anyone making their predictions.

Good luck everyone.
FUBeAR can confirm he is hearing same from Mercer sources, but the talk about going to Furman in Round 2 seemed (to FUBeAR) to be more aspirational than (inside) knowledgeable. Mercer peeps are rightfully worried about making the field though they rightfully should not have to be.

FUBeAR’s Furman peeps certainly expect to face a SoCon Team in Round 2, but that seemed (to FUBeAR) to be more historical than (inside) knowledgeable. They also expressed displeasure (for the SoCon) with those prospects, as they should, with such BS. The Committee, surprisingly, didn’t pull that crap last year with only 2 SoCon Teams in the field, but with 3 or more, they probably will be back to their evil ways…and FUBeAR don’t wanna hear any crap about that comment from any fan of a Team from a Conference that has 4-6 Teams gifted with bids every year.

Finally, to support B&G’s comments. FUBeAR knows Mercer feels as if they filled the bag with their bid to host. They want a Playoff game in Maconga more than a junkie wants his next fix. If Mercer gets a bid, FUBeAR will be SHOCKED if they don’t host.

[wcugrad95]

On the flip-side of that, WCU no doubt will put in what we feel is a competitive bid to host a 1st round game, but I expect it to be short of what many other teams do. We are consistently around the top and often lead the SOCON in attendance (even when we were horrible) and have 8 D1 wins and 2 relatively close losses to other ranked teams, but we can probably only be competitive or beat bids from Gardner-Webb or Davidson, not sure about NCCU, and doubt we would outbid somebody like Richmond/William & Mary/Mercer - all teams (other than Mercer) that the Cats could find themselves playing against.

The other no doubt here is I would fully expect if WCU is in the field, whoever we play would be lined-up to play Furman in round 2. If that doesn't happen, Mercer would certainly be in that situation. So two 8-win teams from the SOCON will find themselves with a playoff path that leads either to Greenville for a re-match, or half-way (or more) across the country for the 2nd round making it hard for the SOCON to have more than 1 team in the quarters.

[MSUBobcat]

Given the opening round is Thanksgiving weekend, I think setting up the games by proximity makes sense. After the opening round, I think they already move them around.

They definitely funnel first round games to seeds that would be bus trips in the second round. Just look to last year: Holy Cross had the winner of Fordham-UNH (both bus trips), host institutions Weber State and SELA were sent to Montana State and Samford respectively, even Gardner-Webb (upset the host school EKU) ended up being a bus trip to W&M. There would have been more intentional bus trips in the 2nd round, but there were too many seeds "out west" to accommodate it: Sac State and UIW was always going to be a flight since none of the 1st round participants were within 400 miles. SDSU and NDSU only had one 1st rounder within the bus range (UND) and somehow they got sent to Weber, who, as mentioned, was sent on a bus trip to Bozeman. Given that at least 3 of the 8 HAD to be flights, the fact that 4 of the other 5 ended up being bus trips is way too coincidental.

[FU_Paladin08]

It’s likely we’ll see 3 teams from the CAA and 3 from the SoCon. I see no reason they shouldn’t be paired up against each other in round two instead of playing conference foes.

[UND.92]

If UNI beats NDSU and UND beats Illinois State, I would expect one of those three going through SDSU. Most likely NDSU or UND, as UNI would have beat both of them and would be considered a higher seed (even though they don't seed 9-24)

[Professor Chaos]

If UNI beats NDSU and UND beats Illinois State, I would expect one of those three going through SDSU. Most likely NDSU or UND, as UNI would have beat both of them and would be considered a higher seed (even though they don't seed 9-24)
I would hope if all 3 of those are unseeded UNI goes to USD since they didn't play each other in the regular season while NDSU and UND did and UNI is the closest of the 3 to Vermillion anyway. It does seem like a strong possibility that either UND or NDSU (if unseeded) gets fed into SDSU since there's no other potential playoff schools within bus distance of Brookings other than UNI and Drake (and I'm assuming the committee isn't going to expect Drake to be winning their first round game).

[MSUBobcat]

On the flip-side of that, WCU no doubt will put in what we feel is a competitive bid to host a 1st round game, but I expect it to be short of what many other teams do. We are consistently around the top and often lead the SOCON in attendance (even when we were horrible) and have 8 D1 wins and 2 relatively close losses to other ranked teams, but we can probably only be competitive or beat bids from Gardner-Webb or Davidson, not sure about NCCU, and doubt we would outbid somebody like Richmond/William & Mary/Mercer - all teams (other than Mercer) that the Cats could find themselves playing against.

The other no doubt here is I would fully expect if WCU is in the field, whoever we play would be lined-up to play Furman in round 2. If that doesn't happen, Mercer would certainly be in that situation. So two 8-win teams from the SOCON will find themselves with a playoff path that leads either to Greenville for a re-match, or half-way (or more) across the country for the 2nd round making it hard for the SOCON to have more than 1 team in the quarters.

There's really no other options. There's only 8 seeds and Furman is the only one that isn't "halfway across the country", depending on what you define that as (and who the seeds end up being). Delaware is the next closest to Cullowhee (617 mi) after Furman so by default, it's either Furman or a trip halfway across the country. Macon is even farther from Delaware (767 mi).

It's the same situation for 3 of the Big Sky teams. If one of Idaho, MSU and UM isn't seeded, you are almost guaranteed to have a Round 2 rematch against one of the other two that are seeded, and if not, it's still a trip halfway across the country (Brookings to Bozeman would be the shortest by far and that's 845 miles).

[MSUBobcat]

It’s likely we’ll see 3 teams from the CAA and 3 from the SoCon. I see no reason they shouldn’t be paired up against each other in round two instead of playing conference foes.

Regionalization... regionalization is the reason.

[MSUBobcat]

If UNI beats NDSU and UND beats Illinois State, I would expect one of those three going through SDSU. Most likely NDSU or UND, as UNI would have beat both of them and would be considered a higher seed (even though they don't seed 9-24)

Do we have our first Novembrist of the year? Either way, welcome to the board!

[Redbird 4th & short]

I think NCCU will get in @ 9-2

If Richmond wins , they are in as well

CAA is up to 15 teams ... lot of scheduling disparities .. for example, 7-3 Richmond (#5 CAA) and 6-4 W&M (#4 CAA) will play this week. While it looks real bad for my 6-4 ISUr Redbirds .. we're having a little dispute about bids and SOS on the Redbird forum. So I'll share my comments here regarding my 6-4 Redbirds vs the 7-3 Richmond and 6-4 W&M prospects:


Richmond (7-3, SOS #83) has yet to play any of the top 4 teams in CAA. They lost at home to 5-5 Hampton (Massey #69) by 17 and again at home to 4-5 Morgan St (Massey #75) by 7. Both worse than our EIU (7-3) loss by 3. They beat 0-10 Stony Brook (#108) by 1, and then 2-8 Maine (#79) at home by 11. Neither as good as most of our blowouts of weak teams by 30+ points.

W&M (6-4, SOS #63) has yet to play 3 of the top 4 teams in CAA. They lost to 8-3 Albany 24 to 8. Their best win is over 4-6 Monmouth (#51) by 3 at home. They lost to 4-6 Towson (#55) b.y 10 at home. They feasted on 6 teams ranked #62 or worse ... by margins in order of 10, 21, 8, 25, 17. ISUr has wins in lower half of schedule by 37, 37, 31, 41, 16.

Richmond (#5 CAA) will play at W&M (#4 CAA) this week. If Richmond loses as Massey projected, both teams will be 7-4, playing weaker schedules than we did AND with most wins by much lesser margins than ours. Both Richmond and W&M are on the bubble and at least one will likely get bids because they are in CAA.

I'm pretty sure our resume is as good or better than the #4 and #5 CAA teams. And right now, were the #8 team in MVFC. But they are on the bubble and we aren't ... and we may all be 7-4 when season ends, again with our being against tougher SOS (#41) and with more wins by greater margins and more quality losses by lesser margins.


Not saying we should be a playoff team ... but there are big SOS inequities on the bubble as currently perceived and projected.

[FUBeAR]

Did y'all know this?
https://twitter.com/jaredm1717/status/1724530394899292318

FUBeAR also saw....

Montana has played in 62 Playoff games. 74% of those have been at Home. The Griz are 1-15 (.062) in Away Playoff games.

Montana State has played in 25 Playoff games. About 54% (something like that) have been at Home. The Bobcats are 1-7 (.125) in Away Playoff games.

Combined 2-22 (.083) in Away Playoff Games. That seems statistically significant.

Also saw that Furman had played 38 Playoff games. About 58% have been at Home. The Paladins are 8-8 (.500) in Away Playoff games.


Those are amazing stats to FUBeAR and he now understands the MASSIVE effort by MT and MTSt peeps to steal the #2 Seed that Furman will have EARNED with a win this Saturday.

It's a shame the FCS Media / Pundits seem to be totally complicit in this effort - heck, they might even be leading it. It seems the relative size of a Team's (reachable) Fan Base might be high on their Playoff Seeding criteria list.

FUBeAR holds out hope that the Committee, this year, will just rely on On-the-Field Results in their deliberations. Seems kinda like the thing they are supposed to do, huh?

[Chalupa Batman]

If UNI beats NDSU and UND beats Illinois State, I would expect one of those three going through SDSU. Most likely NDSU or UND, as UNI would have beat both of them and would be considered a higher seed (even though they don't seed 9-24)

In this scenario UNI being bracketed to go to South Dakota makes sense to me since they didn't play in the regular season. Which leaves UND/NDSU probably going through Brookings like you said.

[JacksFan40]

Did y'all know this?
https://twitter.com/jaredm1717/status/1724530394899292318

FUBeAR also saw....

Montana has played in 62 Playoff games. 74% of those have been at Home. The Griz are 1-15 (.062) in Away Playoff games.

Montana State has played in 25 Playoff games. About 54% (something like that) have been at Home. The Bobcats are 1-7 (.125) in Away Playoff games.

Combined 2-22 (.083) in Away Playoff Games. That seems statistically significant.

Also saw that Furman had played 38 Playoff games. About 58% have been at Home. The Paladins are 8-8 (.500) in Away Playoff games.


Those are amazing stats to FUBeAR and he now understands the MASSIVE effort by MT and MTSt peeps to steal the #2 Seed that Furman will have EARNED with a win this Saturday.

It's a shame the FCS Media / Pundits seem to be totally complicit in this effort - heck, they might even be leading it. It seems the relative size of a Team's (reachable) Fan Base might be high on their Playoff Seeding criteria list.

FUBeAR holds out hope that the Committee, this year, will just rely on On-the-Field Results in their deliberations. Seems kinda like the thing they are supposed to do, huh?

Maybe Furman should get a better SOS if they want to be seeded higher. Montana, MSU, and USD all had tougher schedules. If rankings were determined solely based on records with no analysis of SOS, then Liberty would be ranked ahead of Alabama.

[wcugrad95]

Again, you can say SOS adjusts over the season and gets better, but in reality it doesn't. If the teams you play are all ranked to start with and all stay ranked because the computers keep saying they are good, then your SOS stays very high even if you lose some games. Then the MVFC and Big Sky (and in the past, CAA) get lots of teams into the playoffs - often with 7-4 type records. Many of those teams get seeded because of the percieved SOS, play and win lots of home playoff games, and rinse and repeat the next year.

I am not trying to say there isn't very good football being played in these conferences. But it seems like a 7-win team from say the Big Sky or MVFC is automatically deemed better than a 7 or 8 win team from some other conference. Winning a bunch of conference games against other teams that have bloated SOS and rankings perpetuates all of this. SOCON teams get sent on the road and we do lose playoff games. But FUBeAR's stats show that when some of the best of the Big Sky get sent on the road, they lose, too.

Furman played who was on their schedule - that is all they can do. They have beaten every one of those FCS teams including 3 who will finish ranked at the end of the season - 2 of them should be 8-win teams (I guess technically UTC could win 8, too). If the Paladins played NAU either early or late in the season, they would figure out how to win that game. You can't just ignore bad losses, but that is especially true when you are comparing teams to somebody has a 0 in the loss column. 4 weeks or so ago 1/2 the people on here were saying Montana was garbage and shouldn't be ranked. I get teams get better, but IMO Furman should not be penalized for winning 10 FCS games and being the consensus #2 team for the past several weeks to get leapfrogged and potentially sent packing in the playoffs.

[TrooperCoats]

Maybe Furman should get a better SOS if they want to be seeded higher. Montana, MSU, and USD all had tougher schedules. If rankings were determined solely based on records with no analysis of SOS, then Liberty would be ranked ahead of Alabama.I don't mind Furman ahead of USD in the seeding. But I do have a gripe about either of the Montana schools being ahead of USD. To put the Montanas in front of either Furman or USD takes some mental gymnastics, especially if you truly can't use prior seasons or name recognition as one of your reasons.

[uofmman1122]

Again, you can say SOS adjusts over the season and gets better, but in reality it doesn't. If the teams you play are all ranked to start with and all stay ranked because the computers keep saying they are good, then your SOS stays very high even if you lose some games. Then the MVFC and Big Sky (and in the past, CAA) get lots of teams into the playoffs - often with 7-4 type records. Many of those teams get seeded because of the percieved SOS, play and win lots of home playoff games, and rinse and repeat the next year.

I am not trying to say there isn't very good football being played in these conferences. But it seems like a 7-win team from say the Big Sky or MVFC is automatically deemed better than a 7 or 8 win team from some other conference. Winning a bunch of conference games against other teams that have bloated SOS and rankings perpetuates all of this. SOCON teams get sent on the road and we do lose playoff games. But FUBeAR's stats show that when some of the best of the Big Sky get sent on the road, they lose, too.

Furman played who was on their schedule - that is all they can do. They have beaten every one of those FCS teams including 3 who will finish ranked at the end of the season - 2 of them should be 8-win teams (I guess technically UTC could win 8, too). If the Paladins played NAU either early or late in the season, they would figure out how to win that game. You can't just ignore bad losses, but that is especially true when you are comparing teams to somebody has a 0 in the loss column. 4 weeks or so ago 1/2 the people on here were saying Montana was garbage and shouldn't be ranked. I get teams get better, but IMO Furman should not be penalized for winning 10 FCS games and being the consensus #2 team for the past several weeks to get leapfrogged and potentially sent packing in the playoffs. If SDSU lost this coming Saturday, would we be saying they should drop to #2 or #3???
I could just as easily say that if Furman had to play @UC Davis, @Idaho, vs. Sac State, and vs. MSU, they'd lose multiple of those games. We'll never know.

We know how good those teams are, and if Montana beats all of them, that's a better resume than Furman's, even with the NAU loss.

Also, Montana's recent playoff road losses have almost exclusively been to some of the best teams that were highly ranked and went far in the playoffs.

2022 lost @ #3 national runner up NDSU
2021 lost @ #2 national runner up JMU
2019 lost @ #3 semifinalist Weber State
2015 lost @ #3 national champion NDSU
2014 lost @ #4 quarterfinalist Eastern Washington
2011 lost @ #1 national runner up SHSU
2008 won @ #1 semifinalist JMU
2002 lost @ #1 national runner up McNeese State
1999 lost @ national runner up YSU
1997 lost @ national runner up McNeese State

So in over 25 years, we've only lost to 2 teams on the road that didn't either win the NC or get 2nd.

Meanwhile, Furman's road playoff opponents in that same time look quite a bit different:

2022 lost @ #7 semifinalist UIW
2017 won @ #15 Elon in the first round, lost @ #7 Wofford in the 2nd round
2013 won @ #25 SCSU, lost @ #1 national champion NDSU
2006 lost @ #10 Montana State
2005 won @ #12 Richmond, lost @ #1 national champ ASU
2002 lost @ #4 semifinalist Villanova
2001 won @ #2 semifinalist Georgia Southern

So the only real differences in these two records seems to be that Montana pretty much only played elite teams on the road, and whenever Furman or Montana met one of these elite teams, they each only managed 1 win. Your narratives are built on a shaky foundation at best. xcoffeex

[Professor Chaos]

I don't mind Furman ahead of USD in the seeding. But I do have a gripe about either of the Montana schools being ahead of USD. To put the Montanas in front of either Furman or USD takes some mental gymnastics, especially if you truly can't use prior seasons or name recognition as one of your reasons.
I don't think so. It's pretty easy to make the argument that the top heavy Big Sky produces better wins for the Montana teams than MVFC where everyone is pretty average outside of SDSU and USD. It'll be pretty clear that the winner of the Montana/Montana St game will have a better win than anything USD can muster. Montana's win over Idaho could also be better than any win USD has. If NDSU loses to UNI then Montana and Montana St's wins over Sac St could be viewed as better than anything USD has. The only common opponent is SDSU for USD and Montana St and Montana St would destroy that argument.

Pretty much the only argument USD wins is the "good losses" argument and I don't think that's enough to get them over the winner of the Montana/Montana St game.

[FUBeAR]

I could just as easily say that if Furman had to play @UC Davis, @Idaho, vs. Sac State, and vs. MSU, they'd lose multiple of those games. We'll never know.

We know how good those teams are, and if Montana beats all of them, that's a better resume than Furman's, even with the NAU loss.

Also, Montana's recent playoff road losses have almost exclusively been to some of the best teams that were highly ranked and went far in the playoffs.

2022 lost @ #3 national runner up NDSU
2021 lost @ #2 national runner up JMU
2019 lost @ #3 semifinalist Weber State
2015 lost @ #3 national champion NDSU
2014 lost @ #4 quarterfinalist Eastern Washington
2011 lost @ #1 national runner up SHSU
2008 won @ #1 semifinalist JMU
2002 lost @ #1 national runner up McNeese State
1999 lost @ national runner up YSU
1997 lost @ national runner up McNeese State

So in over 25 years, we've only lost to 2 teams on the road that didn't either win the NC or get 2nd.

Meanwhile, Furman's road playoff opponents in that same time look quite a bit different:

2022 lost @ #7 semifinalist UIW
2017 won @ #15 Elon in the first round, lost @ #7 Wofford in the 2nd round
2013 won @ #25 SCSU, lost @ #1 national champion NDSU
2006 lost @ #10 Montana State
2005 won @ #12 Richmond, lost @ #1 national champ ASU
2002 lost @ #4 semifinalist Villanova
2001 won @ #2 semifinalist Georgia Southern

So the only real differences in these two records seems to be that Montana pretty much only played elite teams on the road, and whenever Furman or Montana met one of these elite teams, they each only managed 1 win.
"So, FUBeAR, actually, 1-15 is a BETTER record than 8-8. It's regulations."


https://youtu.be/j87wE6DyOQA?feature=shared

Dang it. If only we were playing in Germany... "Narrative" BWAH HA HA HA HA!!!! xlmaoxxlmaoxxlmaoxxlmaoxxlmaoxxlmaoxxlmaoxxlmaoxxl maoxxlmaoxxlmaoxxlmaoxxlmaoxxlmaoxxlmaox

[uofmman1122]

"So, FUBeAR, actually, 1-15 is a BETTER record than 8-8. It's regulations."


https://youtu.be/j87wE6DyOQA?feature=shared

Dang it. If only we were playing in Germany... "Narrative" BWAH HA HA HA HA!!!!
It's like talking to a child.

[FUBeAR]

It's like talking to a child.
Sure - a child that can do basic math.

1 Win and 15 Losses = a 0.0625 winning percentage or ... one can express that as Montana, historically, has a 93.75% chance of LOSING a Playoff game if it's played at their opponents' home stadiums

~94% chance of LOSING IF THE GRIZ HAVE TO TRAVEL ....

BY GOODNESS, It's certainly understandable why Griz peeps want to make up every story and twist every fact nine ways from Sunday to avoid having a Playoff Away game also.

The efforts are admirable, but they are really unnecessary, as FUBeAR has almost no doubt that the Committee will accede to the obviously known wishes of its Chair.

Fun to watch y'all twist and turn though -- gotta admit that.

[uofmman1122]

Sure - a child that can do basic math.

1 Win and 15 Losses = a 0.0625 winning percentage or ... one can express that as Montana, historically, has a 93.75% chance of LOSING a Playoff game if it's played at their opponents' home stadiums

~94% chance of LOSING IF THE GRIZ HAVE TO TRAVEL ....

BY GOODNESS, It's certainly understandable why Griz peeps want to make up every story and twist every fact nine ways from Sunday to avoid having a Playoff Away game also.

The efforts are admirable, but they are really unnecessary, as FUBeAR has almost no doubt that the Committee will accede to the obviously known wishes of its Chair.

Fun to watch y'all twist and turn though -- gotta admit that.
It's sad that "Almost all teams teams lose when they play strong teams on the road" and "Montana has only played strong teams on the road, while Furman has not" is too difficult for you to grasp.

Also, I very distinctly remember you getting on other people over using past playoff results as predictors of future playoff results, or is it only okay when you do it?

[FUBeAR]

It's sad that "Almost all teams teams lose when they play strong teams on the road" and "Montana has only played strong teams on the road, while Furman has not" is too difficult for you to grasp.

Also, I very distinctly remember you getting on other people over using past playoff results as predictors of future playoff results, or is it only okay when you do it?

You guys have such a hard time noticing or understanding differences in factual presentation and BLUSTER...

FUBeAR is not projecting ANYTHING ... the MATH, in a sense, projects it...FUBeAR just stated what the MATH says...and, even included the qualifier, "historically" to be certain that it was clear the FUBeAR was NOT expressing his opinion of future results.

And, FUBeAR can assure you that nothing you have stated is too difficult for him to grasp.

He just doesn't like putting his hands into a bunch of BS.

So, he ignores the 9 ways from Sunday that y'all characterize losing to a bad 4-6 Team, barely eking out a 1-score win over a D2 Team that is not even one of 16 Seeded Teams in the D2 Playoffs, and barely taking a 1 score lead into the 4th quarter against a non-scholarship (D3 equivalent) Team.

All those things happened and y'all just want EVERYONE to pretend that they didn't. FUBeAR prefers living in reality.

[MSUBobcat]

Did y'all know this?
https://twitter.com/jaredm1717/status/1724530394899292318

FUBeAR also saw....

Montana has played in 62 Playoff games. 74% of those have been at Home. The Griz are 1-15 (.062) in Away Playoff games.

Montana State has played in 25 Playoff games. About 54% (something like that) have been at Home. The Bobcats are 1-7 (.125) in Away Playoff games.

Combined 2-22 (.083) in Away Playoff Games. That seems statistically significant.

Also saw that Furman had played 38 Playoff games. About 58% have been at Home. The Paladins are 8-8 (.500) in Away Playoff games.


Those are amazing stats to FUBeAR and he now understands the MASSIVE effort by MT and MTSt peeps to steal the #2 Seed that Furman will have EARNED with a win this Saturday.

It's a shame the FCS Media / Pundits seem to be totally complicit in this effort - heck, they might even be leading it. It seems the relative size of a Team's (reachable) Fan Base might be high on their Playoff Seeding criteria list.

FUBeAR holds out hope that the Committee, this year, will just rely on On-the-Field Results in their deliberations. Seems kinda like the thing they are supposed to do, huh?


Care to add context to your narrative? Let's look at those road games for MSU in FCS playoffs, shall we?

2002 - McNeese, the #1 seed and eventual runner up to Western Kentucky
2003 - UNI. Truthfully, we eked into the playoffs by upsetting the Griz in the Brawl that year. We were 6-5 going into it and UM was ranked #4 and heavily favored.
2006 - App State, not just the #1 seed, but in the 2nd year of their 3 year dynasty
2011 - SHSU, the #1 seed and eventual runner up to the Bizuns
2018 - NDSU, the #1 seed and eventual champ
2019 - NDSU, the #1 seed and eventual champ
2021 - MSU beat SHSU, the #1 seed
2022 - SDSU, the #1 seed and eventual champ

Notice a trend? 8 games... 7 against the #1 seed, 4 of which were the national champs and 2 were runner up (we beat the other #1 we played) and a road loss by a team lucky to even make the playoffs. When you play the #1 seed in their house, you aren't expected to come away with a win. In fact, since 2001, the #1 seed is 49-9 at home (.845) and MSU owns one of those 9 road victories over the #1 seed. Most of those upsets happened in the aughts (03,04,05,07,08). Since 2009, there have only been 4 upsets: Montana State (8 seed), JMU (4 seed), Ill State (5 seed), and Nova (unranked).

We may have a bad road record, but it's because we continually get funneled to the #1 seed and few, if any, teams in those years would have fared any better.

[uofmman1122]

You guys have such a hard time noticing or understanding differences in factual presentation and BLUSTER...

FUBeAR is not projecting ANYTHING ... the MATH, in a sense, projects it...FUBeAR just stated what the MATH says...and, even included the qualifier, "historically" to be certain that it was clear the FUBeAR was NOT expressing his opinion of future results.

And, FUBeAR can assure you that nothing you have stated is too difficult for him to grasp.

He just doesn't like putting his hands into a bunch of BS.

So, he ignores the 9 ways from Sunday that y'all characterize losing to a bad 4-6 Team, barely eking out a 1-score win over a D2 Team that is not even one of 16 Seeded Teams in the D2 Playoffs, and barely taking a 1 score lead into the 4th quarter against a non-scholarship (D3 equivalent) Team.

All those things happened and y'all just want EVERYONE to pretend that they didn't. FUBeAR prefers living in reality.
You're the guy looking at ice cream sales vs. shark attacks and saying there's causation between them.

[caribbeanhen]

Delaware has been ousted from the playoffs by South Dakota State twice in the past few years, would love to see Delaware have the opportunity to play and beat a more typical FCS playoff team such as

Furman
Montana
Idaho
South Dakota
Sac St
Western Carolina
Northern Iowa
Mercer
North Dakota
Nicholls State

[FUBeAR]

We may have a bad road record, but it's because we continually get funneled to the #1 seed and few, if any, teams in those years would have fared any better.
Honestly - FUBeAR cannot stop laughing at this statement coming from a Big Sky fan. It's probably the funniest thing FUBeAR has seen in all of 2023.

You know you are talking to a SoCon fan...and you are seeking understanding from him about being funneled to the #1 Seed....LOL....and you'll be the 1st one chanting the Big Sky mantra of "when was the last time...." to SoCon fans. That's hilarious. Go look at where SoCon dreams have gone to die in recent years and then get back to FUBeAR.

Y'all are some entertaining sons of guns though - It's some funny-a$$ ish that gets typed into y'all's keyboards.

[MSUBobcat]

It's like talking to a child.

I see you did the same analysis for the Griz as I did for the Bobcats.

And, it's not talking to a child. It's a troll.

https://i.postimg.cc/3Nr5BJb6/Bait.webp

I'd say don't feed the troll, but what else are we going to do heading into Selection Sunday?
https://postimg.cc/5XNwnnGq
https://postimg.cc/5XNwnnGq

[FUBeAR]

You're the guy looking at ice cream sales vs. shark attacks and saying there's causation between them.
When that facts say 1-15, probably the best thing to do is to change the subject...that's just what FUBeAR would recommend. You do you.

[uofmman1122]

Delaware has been ousted from the playoffs by South Dakota State twice in the past few years, would love to see Delaware have the opportunity to play and beat a more typical FCS playoff team such as

Furman
Montana
Idaho
South Dakota
Sac St
Western Carolina
Northern Iowa
Mercer
North Dakota
Nicholls State
We would love to see you guys again in Missoula. I was too young to remember the last time, but heard it was brutal. xthumbsupx

[FUBeAR]

I see you did the same analysis for the Griz as I did for the Bobcats.

And, it's not talking to a child. It's a troll.

https://i.postimg.cc/3Nr5BJb6/Bait.webp

I'd say don't feed the troll, but what else are we going to do heading into Selection Sunday?
https://postimg.cc/5XNwnnGq
https://postimg.cc/5XNwnnGq
When you hate the 1-7 facts, attacking the messenger is not a bad plan. Good effort.

[uofmman1122]

When that facts say 1-15, probably the best thing to do is to change the subject...that's just what FUBeAR would recommend. You do you.
That you don't get what I'm talking about kind of proves my point lol

[FUBeAR]

That you don't get what I'm talking about kind of proves my point lol
Self-delusion is also a good strategy when one is faced with 1-15 facts.

[uofmman1122]

Self-delusion is also a good strategy when one is faced with 1-15 facts.
Furman is 1-6 on the road in the playoffs against teams that don't suck.

The Griz have been too good to ever have to play bad teams on the road.

Tough to know what we'd do against crap teams because unlike Furman, we've never been that bad.

[FUBeAR]

The Griz...on the road...Tough to know what we'd do...Math & History say there is a 94% chance that Montana would lose. Does that help?

[uofmman1122]

Math & History say there is a 94% chance that Montana would lose. Does that help?
Listen, I know you're upset that your team doesn't have the resume strong enough to lock down the #2 seed, but don't worry.

If we're talking about math and history, it's unlikely Furman would make the semifinals either way.

[MSUBobcat]

Honestly - FUBeAR cannot stop laughing at this statement coming from a Big Sky fan. It's probably the funniest thing FUBeAR has seen in all of 2023.

You know you are talking to a SoCon fan...and you are seeking understanding from him about being funneled to the #1 Seed....LOL....and you'll be the 1st one chanting the Big Sky mantra of "when was the last time...." to SoCon fans. That's hilarious. Go look at where SoCon dreams have gone to die in recent years and then get back to FUBeAR.

Y'all are some entertaining sons of guns though - It's some funny-a$$ ish that gets typed into y'all's keyboards.

I'm also laughing at the stupidity of your argument. Since 2001, Furple has been funneled to the #1 seed (checks notes)... ONCE?!?! One ****ing time in 9 appearances!?! And you're comparing that to us playing the #1 on the road in 7 of our 8 appearance over the same period? GTFOH xlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolx xlolxxlolxxlolxxlolx

Since you like math:

Record vs unseeded teams since 2001 - Furman 3-3 (.500); MSU 0-1 (.000)
Record vs seeds 2-8 - Furman 1-3 (.250); MSU... wouldn't know, only play the #1 seeds
Record vs #1 seed - Furman 0-1 (.000); MSU 1-6 (.143)

[Catbooster]

For a little more context (FUBear likes context with the numbers when it suits him):

Care to add context to your narrative? Let's look at those road games for MSU in FCS playoffs, shall we?

3 coaches ago, our current player would have probably been a few years away from being born to 4 years old (assuming 18-21 yrs old when playing).

2002 - McNeese, the #1 seed and eventual runner up to Western Kentucky
2003 - UNI. Truthfully, we eked into the playoffs by upsetting the Griz in the Brawl that year. We were 6-5 going into it and UM was ranked #4 and heavily favored.
2006 - App State, not just the #1 seed, but in the 2nd year of their 3 year dynasty

2 coaches ago, current players were probably 6-11 years old (assuming 18-23 years old due to Covid years, not sure if we have any players that old?).

2011 - SHSU, the #1 seed and eventual runner up to the Bizuns

New AD, more capable at fundraising - added nutritionist, fueling station, new athletic center (new locker rooms, training and rehab center, etc.) more emphasis on athletic trainers (weight coach, etc.) over the following years.

Previous coaching staff and likely some of the same players in their first year or two of college (5 years ago - I'm fairly sure a few still playing due to the Covid years).

2018 - NDSU, the #1 seed and eventual champ
Previous coaching staff, some of the same players:

2019 - NDSU, the #1 seed and eventual champ

Current coaching staff and, partially, team:

2021 - MSU beat SHSU, the #1 seed
Current coaching staff and larger portion of the same team:

2022 - SDSU, the #1 seed and eventual champ

Notice a trend? 8 games... 7 against the #1 seed, 4 of which were the national champs and 2 were runner up (we beat the other #1 we played) and a road loss by a team lucky to even make the playoffs. When you play the #1 seed in their house, you aren't expected to come away with a win. In fact, since 2001, the #1 seed is 49-9 at home (.845) and MSU owns one of those 9 road victories over the #1 seed. Most of those upsets happened in the aughts (03,04,05,07,08). Since 2009, there have only been 4 upsets: Montana State (8 seed), JMU (4 seed), Ill State (5 seed), and Nova (unranked).

We may have a bad road record, but it's because we continually get funneled to the #1 seed and few, if any, teams in those years would have fared any better.
IMO, only the last few could arguably have any relevance (slight as it may be) to this year's playoffs. The rest are history and I'm not sure there is any argument that they are relevant to this year's playoffs.
With this coaching staff: 1-1 with the loss being to the eventual national champs
With the previous coaching staff and some of the same players: 1-3 with all of the losses to the eventual national champ.

Even within this year teams have changed. If you've paid any attention to the Griz this year, you know that they are a different team now than they were a month or two ago - significant changes in schemes, QB, etc.

[FUBeAR]

I'm also laughing at the stupidity of your argument. Since 2001, Furple has been funneled to the #1 seed (checks notes)... ONCE?!?! One ****ing time in 9 appearances!?! And you're comparing that to us playing the #1 on the road in 7 of our 8 appearance over the same period? GTFOH xlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolx xlolxxlolxxlolxxlolx

Since you like math:

Record vs unseeded teams since 2001 - Furman 3-3 (.500); MSU 0-1 (.000)
Record vs seeds 2-8 - Furman 1-3 (.250); MSU... wouldn't know, only play the #1 seeds
Record vs #1 seed - Furman 0-1 (.000); MSU 1-6 (.143)
Whatever - on a Conf Call - couldn't check the exact records - but here's some exact records ... 1-7 is still 1-7 and 1-15 is still 1-15

Furman, ETSU, and Samford have all gone into the DEATH DOME and lost to the Bison in recent years and Woffy and GaSou in the past.....so, maybe they were the 2 seed or don't fit whatever slice/dice you've done to come up with some additional BS, FBDGAS.

Regardless - you ain't gettin' no "AWWWW....Poor baby" for having to play tough road games from a SoCon fan....

[FUBeAR]

For a little more context (FUBear likes context with the numbers when it suits him):


3 coaches ago, our current player would have probably been a few years away from being born to 4 years old (assuming 18-21 yrs old when playing).


2 coaches ago, current players were probably 6-11 years old (assuming 18-23 years old due to Covid years, not sure if we have any players that old?).


New AD, more capable at fundraising - added nutritionist, fueling station, new athletic center (new locker rooms, training and rehab center, etc.) more emphasis on athletic trainers (weight coach, etc.) over the following years.

Previous coaching staff and likely some of the same players in their first year or two of college (5 years ago - I'm fairly sure a few still playing due to the Covid years).

Previous coaching staff, some of the same players:


Current coaching staff and, partially, team:

Current coaching staff and larger portion of the same team:

IMO, only the last few could arguably have any relevance (slight as it may be) to this year's playoffs. The rest are history and I'm not sure there is any argument that they are relevant to this year's playoffs.
With this coaching staff: 1-1 with the loss being to the eventual national champs
With the previous coaching staff and some of the same players: 1-3 with all of the losses to the eventual national champ.

Even within this year teams have changed. If you've paid any attention to the Griz this year, you know that they are a different team now than they were a month or two ago - significant changes in schemes, QB, etc.
WOW - That looks like it took a lot of work.

Are you saying that the Bobcats Road Playoff Record is NOT 1-7?

[caribbeanhen]

We would love to see you guys again in Missoula. I was too young to remember the last time, but heard it was brutal. xthumbsupx

You don’t remember 30 years ago… it’s good too see some young people on AGS

[uofmman1122]

You don’t remember 30 years ago… it’s good too see some young people on AGS
I was 5, give me a break lol

[caribbeanhen]

“Count me as a fan who doesn’t fear Furman. I would love to get a shot at Furman even in Greenville in the semis or even the quarters. The Southern Conference is even worse than the CAA. Come to think of it, I am okay with eventually heading to Missoula too. Montana’s non conference schedule was pathetic and they had a lot of close games in the Big Sky and lost to a 4-6 Northern Arizona. But getting ahead of myself. Just beat Villanova Saturday.”

sighted on Gohens today

[uofmman1122]

“Count me as a fan who doesn’t fear Furman. I would love to get a shot at Furman even in Greenville in the semis or even the quarters. The Southern Conference is even worse than the CAA. Come to think of it, I am okay with eventually heading to Missoula too. Montana’s non conference schedule was pathetic and they had a lot of close games in the Big Sky and lost to a 4-6 Northern Arizona. But getting ahead of myself. Just beat Villanova Saturday.”

sighted on Gohens today
If every team we play from here on out prepares for us like we're the team we had Pre-ISU, I will be the happiest Griz fan of all time.

[FUBeAR]

“Count me as a fan who doesn’t fear Furman. I would love to get a shot at Furman even in Greenville in the semis or even the quarters. The Southern Conference is even worse than the CAA. Come to think of it, I am okay with eventually heading to Missoula too. Montana’s non conference schedule was pathetic and they had a lot of close games in the Big Sky and lost to a 4-6 Northern Arizona. But getting ahead of myself. Just beat Villanova Saturday.”

sighted on Gohens today
Come on down and bring the rest of those yardbirds witchu. Y'all just may end up sprawled all akimbo as the best 2022 CAA Team did...

https://images.sidearmdev.com/resize?url=https%3a%2f%2fdxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront. net%2fsidearm.nextgen.sites%2ffurmanpaladins.com%2 fimages%2f2022%2f11%2f27%2fHuff_TD_ImGzD.jpg&width=1416&type=jpeg

[caribbeanhen]

Also sighted on Gohens

“Furman has been without their starting QB Tyler Huff, a military reservists by the way, the past few game due shoulder injury. Freshman Carson Jones has come in and played very well. They are solid, not spectacular but very solid

Montana has turned the corner once Clifton McDaniel from Spring, Texas took over at QB, he can run the football and Montana is a much better football team right now then the early season Montana

Would love too The Hens play either”

[FUBeAR]

Also sighted on Gohens

“Furman has been without their starting QB Tyler Huff, a military reservists by the way, the past few game due shoulder injury. Freshman Carson Jones has come in and played very well. They are solid, not spectacular but very solid

Montana has turned the corner once Clifton McDaniel from Spring, Texas took over at QB, he can run the football and Montana is a much better football team right now then the early season Montana

Would love too The Hens play either”Please ensure that person never comes to AGS - way too honest and objective. Just wouldn’t fit in here.

[MSUBobcat]

Whatever - on a Conf Call - couldn't check the exact records - but here's some exact records ... 1-7 is still 1-7 and 1-15 is still 1-15

Furman, ETSU, and Samford have all gone into the DEATH DOME and lost to the Bison in recent years and Woffy and GaSou in the past.....so, maybe they were the 2 seed or don't fit whatever slice/dice you've done to come up with some additional BS, FBDGAS.

Regardless - you ain't gettin' no "AWWWW....Poor baby" for having to play tough road games from a SoCon fan....

Didn't ask for a "poor baby" cuz to be the best, you have to beat the best. And no slicin' or dicin' needed. I didn't cut it off at the #1 seed arbitrarily... that's literally who ended our season 7 of the 8 times. The years that the #1 beat us on their field.... NO ONE beat them on their field throughout the entire playoffs. There's a difference in losing to a team that makes the chipper and losing to, say... an unseeded 7-4 team that lost to a D-II team during the regular season, as the 2006 Furple team did. xsmiley_wix

With that, I'll have to leave you to twist into a pretzel trying to show that because other SoCon teams also playing (and losing to) a #1 seed once in a while (hasn't happened since 2015 when Chatty lost to #1 Jax St., FYI - seriously... how has the SoCon avoided the playing #1 seed for nearly a decade???) somehow means that MSU losing to the #1 is utterly unacceptable and definitely not expected.

[Preferred Walk-On]

FUBeAR, I'm sure you (or maybe Redbird 4th & short) have probably posted it somewhere, so my apologies, but what is the CAA's and MVFC's road record in the playoffs? If we are just doing specific teams, I understand. What is NDSU's, USD's, SDSU's, UNI's, UND's, Delaware's, and Villanova's (MVFC's and CAA's "top?" teams) road records? Or just pick a couple (with a meaningful number of games), for simplicity. Just wondering if any are close to or better than .500 (even if no other context is provided)?

I maintain that the reason teams host games is because they are the usually the best/better (at least in that season), ergo their records in the playoffs at home will be the best. Teams that do not host are usually not the best/better (again, at least in that season), and their losing on the road has to do as much (maybe more) with that than it simply being a road game. That said, I do think Furman should get the #2 seed if they win this weekend. However, I will admit that I too have a little doubt in the Paladins, and I wouldn't mind seeing a #7 seeded NDSU (need a lot of help, but possible, and assuming they win their 2nd round game...at home) traveling to Greenville...may the better team win.

Best of luck this weekend...and with the committee.

[MSUBobcat]

Come on down and bring the rest of those yardbirds witchu. Y'all just may end up sprawled all akimbo as the best 2022 CAA Team did...

Maybe stick with spinning your "stats". History, even as recent as a year ago, obviously isn't your thing. Elon was the FOURTH best CAA team last year. W&M was co-champ with UNH and was seeded, while Elon was... not. Y'all beat them by what again??? 25? Nice! Not quite as nice as the drubbing MSU gave the #5 W&M, 55-7, however.

Anyway, just got some last minute weekend trip details wrapped up, so I gotta get off the site. Y'all have fun!

[FUBeAR]

Maybe stick with spinning your "stats". History, even as recent as a year ago, obviously isn't your thing. Elon was the FOURTH best CAA team last year. W&M was co-champ with UNH and was seeded, while Elon was... not. Y'all beat them by what again??? 25? Nice! Not quite as nice as the drubbing MSU gave the #5 W&M, 55-7, however.

Anyway, just got some last minute weekend trip details wrapped up, so I gotta get off the site. Y'all have fun!
Obviously, y'all can read...but you just don't pay attention (need that in Mr. Chicken voice)....

You are quoting standings or something to get Elon as the "FOURTH best CAA team." FUBeAR believes Elon was the BEST CAA Team, as stated, because the Formerly Fightin' Former Christians had the best winning % (3-1 (.750)) against the other 4 CAA Playoff Teams. Because the other Teams beat StonyMouth A&T don't matter to FUBeAR when he's knowin' which of 'em is the BEST.

And...that also proves how much BS Seeding by the Committee - ELON proved ON THE FIELD they were better than W&M...

Seriously - y'all should stop frettin' - the Committee is gonna Committee and tee things up beautifully for the Big Lie Conference!

[Catbooster]

WOW - That looks like it took a lot of work.

Are you saying that the Bobcats Road Playoff Record is NOT 1-7?
Not much work. I had to google when the Kramer/Ash transition was and then had to subtract a few years from 23. It took me more time to get the formatting right to split up the other post than anything. Thanks for the concern though.

I'll trust your research for what the Bobcat FCS/D-IAA road playoff record is, so yeah, it's 1-7. Did I make a typo in that post? I don't remember saying that it wasn't. I simply pointed out a few reasons I don't think it's relevant other than as historical trivia.

[atthewbon]

FUBeAR, I'm sure you (or maybe Redbird 4th & short) have probably posted it somewhere, so my apologies, but what is the CAA's and MVFC's road record in the playoffs? If we are just doing specific teams, I understand. What is NDSU's, USD's, SDSU's, UNI's, UND's, Delaware's, and Villanova's (MVFC's and CAA's "top?" teams) road records? Or just pick a couple (with a meaningful number of games), for simplicity. Just wondering if any are close to or better than .500 (even if no other context is provided)?

I maintain that the reason teams host games is because they are the usually the best/better (at least in that season), ergo their records in the playoffs at home will be the best. Teams that do not host are usually not the best/better (again, at least in that season), and their losing on the road has to do as much (maybe more) with that than it simply being a road game. That said, I do think Furman should get the #2 seed if they win this weekend. However, I will admit that I too have a little doubt in the Paladins, and I wouldn't mind seeing a #7 seeded NDSU (need a lot of help, but possible, and assuming they win their 2nd round game...at home) traveling to Greenville...may the better team win.

Best of luck this weekend...and with the committee.

I think SDSU is 5-9 in the FCS playoffs on the road. They are 3-2 on the road in the playoffs in the last five playoffs.

[atthewbon]

There is a big difference between first round road games against the 15th ranked team in the FCS vs a semifinal game against the eventual champion.

[FUBeAR]

FUBeAR, I'm sure you (or maybe Redbird 4th & short) have probably posted it somewhere, so my apologies, but what is the CAA's and MVFC's road record in the playoffs? If we are just doing specific teams, I understand. What is NDSU's, USD's, SDSU's, UNI's, UND's, Delaware's, and Villanova's (MVFC's and CAA's "top?" teams) road records? Or just pick a couple (with a meaningful number of games), for simplicity. Just wondering if any are close to or better than .500 (even if no other context is provided)?

I maintain that the reason teams host games is because they are the usually the best/better (at least in that season), ergo their records in the playoffs at home will be the best. Teams that do not host are usually not the best/better (again, at least in that season), and their losing on the road has to do as much (maybe more) with that than it simply being a road game. That said, I do think Furman should get the #2 seed if they win this weekend. However, I will admit that I too have a little doubt in the Paladins, and I wouldn't mind seeing a #7 seeded NDSU (need a lot of help, but possible, and assuming they win their 2nd round game...at home) traveling to Greenville...may the better team win.

Best of luck this weekend...and with the committee.See - another voice of reason and objectivity...like FUBeAR. Prof. doesn't really belong around here, but FUBeAR is sure glad he is!!!

Anyway - yeah - I've got all that data for the 10 years of 24 Team / 8 Seeds Playoffs ... but I'd have to find the file and slice/dice it - don't feel like doing that now ... and probably won't - that's more pre-season kind effort (for FUBeAR)

And FUBeAR knows you are not wrong with your thinking about Home Team = Better Team driving those results....but FUBeAR recalls looking into that...in 2 way - Round 1 - Home Teams still won like 80% or so....when the Avg for College Football Home Teams was in the 60's...and then in later rounds, it pushed up to somewhere in the 90%'s....that's more than 'better' ... can't say how much more...but 30% above norm...even allowing for some amount of 'better' doesn't 'splain it all. FUBeAR contends there is a BIG HFA in the Playoffs ... and even bigger for Teams that play their home games outdoors in December abutting Santa's Winter Chalet and/or inside a Jet Engine Housing with the engine running at MAX capacity.

To your final point - Greenville & Furman would LOVE to host a horde of Bizuns fans in December. It is really a cool City/Town - BUT...they will mark up the normally $400/night hotels to $800/night once y'all start lockin' 'em down. Get in early if it happens - You'll love anything in the Riverplace Area downtown....and FUBeAR would love to see the contest of NDSU @ FU, outside of that Jet Engine Housing, and instead, outside on a beautiful crisp, sunny 50 degree mid-December day at the foot of Paris Mountain!!!

LET'S DO IT!!!!

[uofmman1122]

There is a big difference between first round road games against the 15th ranked team in the FCS vs a semifinal game against the eventual champion.
Nah man, get that nuance out of here. Anything more complicated than basic math is just too much for me to underst-...I mean, nonsense!

[FUBeAR]

Not much work. I had to google when the Kramer/Ash transition was and then had to subtract a few years from 23. It took me more time to get the formatting right to split up the other post than anything. Thanks for the concern though.

I'll trust your research for what the Bobcat FCS/D-IAA road playoff record is, so yeah, it's 1-7. Did I make a typo in that post? I don't remember saying that it wasn't. I simply pointed out a few reasons I don't think it's relevant other than as historical trivia.
Sorry - FUBeAR will be less tergiversating...

FUBeAR's smarta$$ point was - ain't none of y'all wanna hear anything about the reason why SoCon hasn't blah blah blah since blah blah blah ... so FUBeAR finds it humorous watching y'all twist yourselves (and the facts) into knots to try to explain 1-7 and 1-15.

Or 2, maybe 3, FCS Losses...

Or the whole Loss to 4-6, near-loss to meh D2, barely a win over non-schollie (D3 Equivalent)....

It's funny. FUBeAR has been quite entertained!!!

[acbearkat]

You don’t remember 30 years ago… it’s good too see some young people on AGS

I don't remember anything 30 years ago. I'm 32.

[SteelSD]

See - another voice of reason and objectivity...like FUBeAR. Prof. doesn't really belong around here, but FUBeAR is sure glad he is!!!

Anyway - yeah - I've got all that data for the 10 years of 24 Team / 8 Seeds Playoffs ... but I'd have to find the file and slice/dice it - don't feel like doing that now ... and probably won't - that's more pre-season kind effort (for FUBeAR)

And FUBeAR knows you are not wrong with your thinking about Home Team = Better Team driving those results....but FUBeAR recalls looking into that...in 2 way - Round 1 - Home Teams still won like 80% or so....when the Avg for College Football Home Teams was in the 60's...and then in later rounds, it pushed up to somewhere in the 90%'s....that's more than 'better' ... can't say how much more...but 30% above norm...even allowing for some amount of 'better' doesn't 'splain it all. FUBeAR contends there is a BIG HFA in the Playoffs ... and even bigger for Teams that play their home games outdoors in December abutting Santa's Winter Chalet and/or inside a Jet Engine Housing with the engine running at MAX capacity.

To your final point - Greenville & Furman would LOVE to host a horde of Bizuns fans in December. It is really a cool City/Town - BUT...they will mark up the normally $400/night hotels to $800/night once y'all start lockin' 'em down. Get in early if it happens - You'll love anything in the Riverplace Area downtown....and FUBeAR would love to see the contest of NDSU @ FU, outside of that Jet Engine Housing, and instead, outside on a beautiful crisp, sunny 50 degree mid-December day at the foot of Paris Mountain!!!

LET'S DO IT!!!!
https://tse2.mm.bing.net/th/id/OIP.Up7Bc2-dZobXCsg2BAtEWgHaEK?rs=1&pid=ImgDetMain

Here's some Greenville accommodations that could be had cheaper for the Bison horde. And look, a concrete block 'davenport' is included!

[FUBeAR]

https://tse2.mm.bing.net/th/id/OIP.Up7Bc2-dZobXCsg2BAtEWgHaEK?rs=1&pid=ImgDetMain

Here's some Greenville accommodations that could be had cheaper for the Bison horde. And look, a concrete block 'davenport' is included!LOL - Takin' you off "Ignore" status for that.

Think you gigged 3, maybe 4 different fan bases, 2 cities, and Mrs. FUBeAR with 1 post. Not even sure if you realized all of the slicing you did, but THAT's SOME OUTSTANDING WORK!!!

[TrooperCoats]

I don't think so. It's pretty easy to make the argument that the top heavy Big Sky produces better wins for the Montana teams than MVFC where everyone is pretty average outside of SDSU and USD. It'll be pretty clear that the winner of the Montana/Montana St game will have a better win than anything USD can muster. Montana's win over Idaho could also be better than any win USD has. If NDSU loses to UNI then Montana and Montana St's wins over Sac St could be viewed as better than anything USD has. The only common opponent is SDSU for USD and Montana St and Montana St would destroy that argument.

Pretty much the only argument USD wins is the "good losses" argument and I don't think that's enough to get them over the winner of the Montana/Montana St game.
I think that analysis is what I mean? USD has better SOS, more ranked wins, more Top 10 wins (2 on the road), fewer FCS losses, and finished with 1 loss in the strongest conference. To ignore that and go to what-ifs feels like saying the basics don't count as much.
That said, I think your post is how the committee will view it. And I think the single best win among the 3 teams is USD @ #2 NDSU (who will finish with a seed).

[acbearkat]

https://tse2.mm.bing.net/th/id/OIP.Up7Bc2-dZobXCsg2BAtEWgHaEK?rs=1&pid=ImgDetMain

Here's some Greenville accommodations that could be had cheaper for the Bison horde. And look, a concrete block 'davenport' is included!

xlolx

[caribbeanhen]

I don't remember anything 30 years ago. I'm 32.

start saving for retirement ace

[Professor Chaos]

I think that analysis is what I mean? USD has better SOS, more ranked wins, more Top 10 wins (2 on the road), fewer FCS losses, and finished with 1 loss in the strongest conference. To ignore that and go to what-ifs feels like saying the basics don't count as much.
That said, I think your post is how the committee will view it. And I think the single best win among the 3 teams is USD @ #2 NDSU (who will finish with a seed).
I don't think where a team was when you beat them should mean much if the team is no longer at that ranking. We all thought Eastern Washington beating Southeastern Louisiana was an impressive win in week 3 when the Lions were ranked about #15 - turns out it wasn't nearly that impressive. IMO whichever Montana schools wins this Saturday will have a more impressive win in that game than USD's win over NDSU (I don't think it's a given that NDSU is seeded if they win either).

As far as SOS goes Montana St will finish with a better SOS than USD after their game this week (according to Massey) and Montana won't be that far behind (#31 compared to #19 for USD). I don't think USD will or should get credit for playing in the MVFC directly but indirectly it will help them because they will have wins over as many as 4 playoff teams.

I just don't think USD is that clear cut above the winner of the Montana/Montana St game and I think the argument is a lot easier to make for the winner of that game over USD than you do.

[TrooperCoats]

I don't think where a team was when you beat them should mean much if the team is no longer at that ranking. We all thought Eastern Washington beating Southeastern Louisiana was an impressive win in week 3 when the Lions were ranked about #15 - turns out it wasn't nearly that impressive. IMO whichever Montana schools wins this Saturday will have a more impressive win in that game than USD's win over NDSU (I don't think it's a given that NDSU is seeded if they win either).

As far as SOS goes Montana St will finish with a better SOS than USD after their game this week (according to Massey) and Montana won't be that far behind (#31 compared to #19 for USD). I don't think USD will or should get credit for playing in the MVFC directly but indirectly it will help them because they will have wins over as many as 4 playoff teams.

I just don't think USD is that clear cut above the winner of the Montana/Montana St game and I think the argument is a lot easier to make for the winner of that game over USD than you do.
Works for me. Are we allowed to agree to disagree? Or do we need 4 more pages of nonsense - maybe about UNI disrespect, temps in western ND, or records of road underdogs?

[FUBeAR]

I don't think where a team was when you beat them should mean much if the team is no longer at that ranking. We all thought Eastern Washington beating Southeastern Louisiana was an impressive win in week 3 when the Lions were ranked about #15 - turns out it wasn't nearly that impressive. IMO whichever Montana schools wins this Saturday will have a more impressive win in that game than USD's win over NDSU (I don't think it's a given that NDSU is seeded if they win either).

As far as SOS goes Montana St will finish with a better SOS than USD after their game this week (according to Massey) and Montana won't be that far behind (#31 compared to #19 for USD). I don't think USD will or should get credit for playing in the MVFC directly but indirectly it will help them because they will have wins over as many as 4 playoff teams.

I just don't think USD is that clear cut above the winner of the Montana/Montana St game and I think the argument is a lot easier to make for the winner of that game over USD than you do.
FUBeAR agrees with you. Actually, FUBeAR thinks there's value in recording/knowing both and weighting the "Ranked Now" significantly more heavily unless there are major extenuating circumstances - Team A beats Team B, who is ranked #1 and Team B then cancels their season for some reason, so is no longer ranked...might be one extreme example.

But, in his interview with Sam Herder, Montana's AD, the Committee Chair, CLEARLY said that a "Ranked Win" means 'ranked then' vs. 'ranked now' ...So, at the time of the outcome, whatever the Team was ranked THEN is what the Committee considers.

Now...after he said that, he did seem to walk it back a little bit, but I can't remember the exact words, just that he seemed to be doing a wee bit of dancing after he had so strongly come down on the 'ranked then' side.

Here ya go - https://herosports.com/fcs-podcast-playoff-committee-chair-kent-haslam-bzbz/

It's 45+ minutes long and FUBeAR don't feel like listening to it again, so he can't give you a time stamp on those comments.

Heck, FUBeAR is already FUMING at that dude for what he's almost certainly gonna do to Furman and to Mercer too between now and Sunday afternoon.

Why he hate FUBeAR so much?
https://www.courier-journal.com/gcdn/-mm-/6f7c038f8f0953ef839357dd297b808b5aae4591/c=0-196-3552-2194/local/-/media/2017/06/15/USATODAY/usatsports/rod-smart-he-hate-me.jpg?width=660&height=372&fit=crop&format=pjpg&auto=webp

[Grizzlies82]

We would love to see you guys again in Missoula. I was too young to remember the last time, but heard it was brutal. xthumbsupx

That playoff game with Delaware was epic! It was a hell of a game which ended up 48 to 46 or something like that.

It would be good to have them back in Missoula and send them home with a loss. Maybe President Biden would come up for it? We promise we won't make him walk up any stairs, ramps only for the big guy.

[MR. CHICKEN]

That playoff game with Delaware was epic! It was a hell of a game which ended up 48 to 46 or something like that.

It would be good to have them back in Missoula and send them home with a loss. Maybe President Biden would come up for it? We promise we won't make him walk up any stairs, ramps only for the big guy.


49-48.........YER KICKER MISSED DUH X-TRA POINT........AWK!

[ElCid]

I don't think where a team was when you beat them should mean much if the team is no longer at that ranking. We all thought Eastern Washington beating Southeastern Louisiana was an impressive win in week 3 when the Lions were ranked about #15 - turns out it wasn't nearly that impressive. IMO whichever Montana schools wins this Saturday will have a more impressive win in that game than USD's win over NDSU (I don't think it's a given that NDSU is seeded if they win either).

As far as SOS goes Montana St will finish with a better SOS than USD after their game this week (according to Massey) and Montana won't be that far behind (#31 compared to #19 for USD). I don't think USD will or should get credit for playing in the MVFC directly but indirectly it will help them because they will have wins over as many as 4 playoff teams.

I just don't think USD is that clear cut above the winner of the Montana/Montana St game and I think the argument is a lot easier to make for the winner of that game over USD than you do.

Depends. What if #5 beats #1. Then #3 beats former number 1. Then #8 beats same former number 1. Former number one ends up at #10 as a result, or lower. "PART" of the reason former #1 slips is BECAUSE #5 beat them. At the time they were #1, right or wrong. Arm chair QBing to say they never deserved it to begin with is a little fishy. What if they had already beaten 4 other top 25 teams. They may have had the best resume up to that point. That's why I say it depends. I think "now" ranked should probably trump "then" ranking in most cases, but not "completely" and not always. The case for UIW is a good example of a team that should be looked at with "now" glasses. There are a couple others that need to be looked at with both "then and now" consideration. So yeah, it depends. Plus there are always injuries. I know it's a matter of depth, but a team that defeats another who has lost a couple key players should maybe not get the same reverence than a team who beat earlier did, when they were healthy, if that makes sense.

Just some random thoughts.

[caribbeanhen]

I hear ya. But to ensure bus trips you're either getting Youngstown/Duquesne or Villanova/Lafayette. Neither Youngstown/Duquesne to Albany is a bus trip but Youngstown/Duquesne to Newark is so that's what you get.

Regular-season non-conference rematches should be avoided in the first round.

Again no Doo Cans at Delaware please and if Delaware beats Nova they won’t have to worry about it

[FUBeAR]

Depends. What if #5 beats #1. Then #3 beats former number 1. Then #8 beats same former number 1. Former number one ends up at #10 as a result, or lower. "PART" of the reason former #1 slips is BECAUSE #5 beat them. At the time they were #1, right or wrong. Arm chair QBing to say they never deserved it to begin with is a little fishy. What if they had already beaten 4 other top 25 teams. They may have had the best resume up to that point. That's why I say it depends. I think "now" ranked should probably trump "then" ranking in most cases, but not "completely" and not always. The case for UIW is a good example of a team that should be looked at with "now" glasses. There are a couple others that need to be looked at with both "then and now" consideration. So yeah, it depends. Plus there are always injuries. I know it's a matter of depth, but a team that defeats another who has lost a couple key players should maybe not get the same reverence than a team who beat earlier did, when they were healthy, if that makes sense.

Just some random thoughts.
EXACTLY!

FUBeAR often wonders why the rest of the world, such as Playoff Selection Committee Chairs, ain't as smart as ElCid and FUBeAR. It's a poser, ain't it?

[Chalupa Batman]

Regular-season non-conference rematches should be avoided in the first round.

Again no Doo Cans at Delaware please and if Delaware beats Nova they won’t have to worry about it

Youngstown/Duquesne & Villanova/Lafayette are the 1st round matchups and neither is a rematch of a regular season game. It is fair game for you to be playing Duquesne or Villanova in the 2nd round (your first game if your seeded).

[caribbeanhen]

Youngstown/Duquesne & Villanova/Lafayette are the 1st round matchups and neither is a rematch of a regular season game. It is fair game for you to be playing Duquesne or Villanova in the 2nd round (your first game if you’re seeded).

Right but if Delaware were to lose to Nova who do you think the Hens get in Rd 1?

[Chalupa Batman]

Right but if Delaware were to lose to Nova who do you think the Hens get in Rd 1?

Ah okay. Would probably just swap you and the Wildcats. Villanova is a seed and you get Lafayette, with the winner going to Albany.

[caribbeanhen]

EXACTLY!

FUBeAR often wonders why the rest of the world, such as Playoff Selection Committee Chairs, ain't as smart as ElCid and FUBeAR. It's a poser, ain't it?

I think it was about 10 years ago maybe even more when I called El Cid the smartest on AGS when he was able to answer a cute little mathematical question I always asked people just to see where they stood. He not only answered it but basically schooled me. I gotta lot of blank stares from college boys on the question and it’s really not that hard …. Mind boggling how kids have gotten away from math (as well as recognizing aging rock stars)

[FUBeAR]

Ah okay. Would probably just swap you and the Wildcats. Villanova is a seed and you get Lafayette, with the winner going to Albany.
So...there may be a CAA Team actually IN the Playoffs?

https://media.tenor.com/lTG6ien94fsAAAAM/neil-patrick-harris-shudder.gif

[Gil Dobie]

Honestly - FUBeAR cannot stop laughing at this statement coming from a Big Sky fan. It's probably the funniest thing FUBeAR has seen in all of 2023.

You know you are talking to a SoCon fan...and you are seeking understanding from him about being funneled to the #1 Seed....LOL....and you'll be the 1st one chanting the Big Sky mantra of "when was the last time...." to SoCon fans. That's hilarious. Go look at where SoCon dreams have gone to die in recent years and then get back to FUBeAR.

Y'all are some entertaining sons of guns though - It's some funny-a$$ ish that gets typed into y'all's keyboards.

Gil Dobie is still laughing at FUBeAR's feeble attempt to say South Carolina was a Top 25 team, now sitting at 4-6. 1 win was against FUBeARs favorite team.

[FUBeAR]

Gil Dobie is still laughing at FUBeAR's feeble attempt to say South Carolina was a Top 25 team, now sitting at 4-6. 1 win was against FUBeARs favorite team.
FUBeAR doesn’t do “feeble attempts” to do anything. Link to your outlandish, false claim?

https://media.tenor.com/jmIR2HYxmAYAAAAC/throw-challenge.gif

[Professor Chaos]

The only way to resolve this is with a duel!

https://c.tenor.com/sxUf6u3WlvUAAAAC/duel-challenge.gif

[The Yo Show]

With Furman losing today, I'm thinking that Furman is definitely not the #2 seed

[Professor Chaos]

With Furman losing today, I'm thinking that Furman is definitely not the #2 seed
Not anymore and that's a really bad loss to a 2-9 team. WCU's loss probably knocks them out of the playoffs devaluing one of Furman's better wins as well. It's Armageddon in the SOCON today.

That said Furman is probably still seeded but outside of the top 4 for sure.

[JacksFan40]

Not anymore and that's a really bad loss to a 2-9 team. WCU's loss probably knocks them out of the playoffs devaluing one of Furman's better wins as well. It's Armageddon in the SOCON today.

That said Furman is probably still seeded but outside of the top 4 for sure.
I’d be surprised if they’re seeded. I don’t know if the committee was going to treat them favorably to begin with, but a loss to one of the worst teams in the FCS should knock them out of the top 8.

WCU is most definitely out of the playoffs altogether.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

UT-Martin is also losing to Samford. Holy Cross might wiggle their way in....

[F'N Hawks]

Nobody wants to make the playoffs haha

[The Yo Show]

WCU losing was good for YSU.

[NY Crusader 2010]

UT-Martin is also losing to Samford. Holy Cross might wiggle their way in....

Need some help from W&M and we're not getting it there.

Also, Morgan State just forced Howard to punt and gets the ball back down 14-7 and 9 min left. Watching that one now on ESPN+.

[OrangeAndBlack]

Does this mean only Furman and Mercer from the SoCon? Maybe UTC sneaks into the field with WCU falling out?

[FUBeAR]

With Furman losing today, I'm thinking that Furman is definitely not the #2 seed
As astute observation. Furman didn’t earn the #2 Seed on the field today, where Seeds should be earned, when they could have earned it, so the Paladins most certainly do not deserve the #2 Seed.

- - - Updated - - -


Not anymore and that's a really bad loss to a 2-9 team. WCU's loss probably knocks them out of the playoffs devaluing one of Furman's better wins as well. It's Armageddon in the SOCON today.
….but Samford!

[OrangeAndBlack]

As astute observation. Furman didn’t earn the #2 Seed on the field today, where Seeds should be earned, when they could have earned it, so the Paladins most certainly do not deserve the #2 Seed.

- - - Updated - - -


….but Samford!

Samford beating UT Martin 27-17 has saved the SoCon today.

[JacksFan40]

With the Cats getting blown out by the Griz, Delaware getting blown out by Villanova, and the Furman debacle, as I wrong in thinking Albany has a genuine shot at the 4?

[Bisonator]

Going to be a lot of seed discussion after today. Wow what a crazy day!

[FUBeAR]

Going to be a lot of seed discussion after today. Wow what a crazy day!
FUBeAR will abstain from these Seed discussions…as long as that’s OK with everyone.

[Chalupa Batman]

FUBeAR will abstain from these Seed discussions…as long as that’s OK with everyone.

I was looking forward to an extensive breakdown of how losing to Wofford wasn’t as bad as losing to NAU.


In all seriousness though, I thought Furman was greatly underrated by many Griz/Bobcat fans (not necessarily here but elsewhere) and was hoping to see the Paladins get one of them at your place. Winning on the road at either of their stadiums is going to be at all order.

[Dane96]

With the Cats getting blown out by the Griz, Delaware getting blown out by Villanova, and the Furman debacle, as I wrong in thinking Albany has a genuine shot at the 4?

I have been pretty conservative on my thoughts about this UA team however, it's defense is lights out. I believe we are legitimately a 6-8 team...not sure about 4. Unfortunately, as folks see in the rankings with the Coach Poll having us obscenely low, I think you will see 'Nova pip us for a high bid even with the blowout loss at Albany. I think 'Nova gets a 5, Albany gets an 8...either way facing the Jacks though I would have preferred it be a semi-final matchup.

[Utgrizfan]

#1: SDSU
#2 Montana

After that it's anyone's guess

[JacksFan40]

#1: SDSU
#2 Montana

After that it's anyone's guess
Coyotes are a pretty solid lock for 3 I would think.

[Utgrizfan]

Coyotes are a pretty solid lock for 3 I would think.

Yeah I could see that for sure

[Professor Chaos]

I think Albany is the #4. Villanova's dominant win over Delaware helps them and Montana St getting trucked by Montana knocks them down as well.

[Utgrizfan]

I think Albany is the #4. Villanova's dominant win over Delaware helps them and Montana St getting trucked by Montana knocks them down as well.

Also depending on what happens with Idaho tonight (ISU could upset them) could be a completely different seeding then most predicted.

[smilo]

Albany-Villanova rematch for the right to get decked by the Jackrabbits?!

Wish we got a chance to take them at home though 🙁

[JacksFan40]

Also depending on what happens with Idaho tonight (ISU could upset them) could be a completely different seeding than most predicted.
I would give Albany the edge over Idaho for the 4, but assuming the Vandals win I’d imagine that’s the 4/5 right there.

[SDFS]

FYI - the dominance of the Dakota schools this year in the MVFC: All Schools Combined 8 losses are to each other or FBS schools.



Team
P5
G5
FCS
Non FCS
Non Dakota
Dakota
Overall


SDSU


2-0
1-0
5-0
3-0
11-0


USD
0-1

2-0

5-0
2-1
9-2


NDSU


3-0

5-0
0-3
8-3


UND

0-1
2-0

4-1
1-2
7-4


Total
0-1
0-1
9-0
1-0
19-1
6-6
25-9




NOTE: I am assuming NDSU win over UNI - with NDSU winning 21-3 early in the 2nd Q.

[fencer24]

Assuming Idaho wins tonight (Not a lock) and NDSU wins, is it going to be 1 - SDSU, 2 - Grizzlies, 3 USD, 4 - ? Idaho or Nova or Albany?
I think Idaho controls their placement based on the size of their win. Could be 4, could be 7, but the Cats aren't going to be higher than 8

[Chalupa Batman]

Also depending on what happens with Idaho tonight (ISU could upset them) could be a completely different seeding then most predicted.


Assuming Idaho wins tonight (Not a lock) and NDSU wins, is it going to be 1 - SDSU, 2 - Grizzlies, 3 USD, 4 - ? Idaho or Nova or Albany?
I think Idaho controls their placement based on the size of their win. Could be 4, could be 7, but the Cats aren't going to be higher than 8

I saw somewhere that Gevani McCoy isn't playing tonight, so an Idaho win is far from a sure thing.

[atthewbon]

I think if Idaho wins it should probably end up
1. SDSU
2. Montana
3. USD
4. Albany
5. Villanova
6. Furman
7. Idaho
8. Montana State

NDSU and Austin Peay would have arguments as well. Idk how much the committee punishes Furman for that loss, it wouldn't completely shock me if they drop out of the seeds all together. If they punish them a lot and Idaho looses I think NDSU and Austin Peay are the last two seeds.

[taper]

FYI - the dominance of the Dakota schools this year in the MVFC: All Schools Combined 8 losses are to each other or FBS schools.



Team
P5
G5
FCS
Non FCS
Non Dakota
Dakota
Overall


SDSU


2-0
1-0
5-0
3-0
11-0


USD
0-1

2-0

5-0
2-1
9-2


NDSU


3-0

5-0
0-3
8-3


UND

0-1
2-0

4-1
1-2
7-4


Total
0-1
0-1
9-0
1-0
19-1
6-6
25-9




NOTE: I am assuming NDSU win over UNI - with NDSU winning 21-3 early in the 2nd Q.


Are you forgetting that shutout UNI pitched to you?

[Professor Chaos]

WCU and UTM out. Richmond and UC Davis in. Sac St and Chattanooga on the bubble with UIW and NCCU knocking on the door. UNI could still snipe a bid if they can come back against NDSU but that might take away a bid from an MVFC team like SIU. Thinking all other 7-4 MVFC teams are safely in.

[Chalupa Batman]

Assuming the NDSU/UNI score holds, I got 7 locks for at-large bids at this point: Montana State, Idaho, South Dakota, North Dakota State, Albany, Delaware, and Mercer.

After that it's wide open.

[JacksFan40]

I think if Idaho wins it should probably end up
1. SDSU
2. Montana
3. USD
4. Albany
5. Villanova
6. Furman
7. Idaho
8. Montana State

NDSU and Austin Peay would have arguments as well. Idk how much the committee punishes Furman for that loss, it wouldn't completely shock me if they drop out of the seeds all together. If they punish them a lot and Idaho looses I think NDSU and Austin Peay are the last two seeds.
I agree with 1-5, but I’d have 6-8 be Idaho, NDSU, and Furman in that order with how things played out today. Montana State’s best win was by far Sac State and that no longer looks very good. I don’t like their odds of being seeded.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Assuming the NDSU/UNI score holds, I got 7 locks for at-large bids at this point: Montana State, Idaho, South Dakota, North Dakota State, Albany, Delaware, and Mercer.

After that it's wide open.

Keep an eye on Lafayette. PL was "pretty good" this year and the Leopards resume is "solid". They would make a reasonable 8 seed imo....

[SDFS]

Are you forgetting that shutout UNI pitched to you? No, there were a total of 9 losses. The Non Dakota and Dakota columns are the MVFC conference games and I have that at 19-1 and 6-6.

[Dane96]

Assuming the NDSU/UNI score holds, I got 7 locks for at-large bids at this point: Montana State, Idaho, South Dakota, North Dakota State, Albany, Delaware, and Mercer.

After that it's wide open.

Delaware? They have two losses. I presume you mean 'Nova?!

[Chalupa Batman]

Delaware? They have two losses. I presume you mean 'Nova?!I was listing locks for the at-large bids. My understanding is Villanova wins the tiebreaker for the autobid.

[Gil Dobie]

I think the committee looks at wins vs teams in the field for seeds and bubble teams.

[Professor Chaos]

Who's ready for a 4-7 North Alabama to make the playoffs after they beat Florida St???

[mvfcfan]

My picks:

The 10 Auto Bids

Safe (8 - not in order):
MT State
S Dakota
Idaho
Delaware
Sac State
NDSU
Albany
N Dakota

Bubble Teams (not in order):
WCU- OUT
SIU- IN
CHATT- OUT
UTM- OUT
UIW- IN
MERCER- IN
UNI- OUT
YSU- IN
UC DAV- IN
RICH- IN
HC- OUT

Multi-bid Leagues:
MVFC 6
B SKY 5
CAA 4
SOCON 2
SLC 2

[HensRock]

Delaware probably gets an At-Large, but they don't deserve it. UD has not beaten any good teams. Weakest UD schedule EVER in my memory. 8-3, but I wonder if the committee looks under the kimono...

I hope Albany and Villanova go far and represent the CAA well.
Richmond too, if they make it.

[Christiank22]

48-20 NDSU with the lead, 12 min left in the 4th


Edit: wrong thread lol. Ignore

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[caribbeanhen]

Albany-Villanova rematch for the right to get decked by the Jackrabbits?!

Wish we got a chance to take them at home though 

Just not right

[mvfcfan]

My picks:

The 10 Auto Bids

Safe (8 - not in order):
MT State
S Dakota
Idaho
Delaware
Sac State
NDSU
Albany
N Dakota

Bubble Teams (not in order):
WCU- OUT
SIU- IN
CHATT- OUT
UTM- OUT
UIW- IN
MERCER- IN
UNI- OUT
YSU- IN
UC DAV- IN
RICH- IN
HC- OUT

Multi-bid Leagues:
MVFC 6
B SKY 5
CAA 4
SOCON 2
SLC 2

I'll go ahead and take a wild guess on the top 8.

1 SDSU
2 MONTANA
3 S DAKOTA
4 IDAHO
5 VILLANOVA
6 MT STATE
7 NDSU
8 FURMAN

[Professor Chaos]

My picks:

The 10 Auto Bids

Safe (8 - not in order):
MT State
S Dakota
Idaho
Delaware
Sac State
NDSU
Albany
N Dakota

Bubble Teams (not in order):
WCU- OUT
SIU- IN
CHATT- OUT
UTM- OUT
UIW- IN
MERCER- IN
UNI- OUT
YSU- IN
UC DAV- IN
RICH- IN
HC- OUT

Multi-bid Leagues:
MVFC 6
B SKY 5
CAA 4
SOCON 2
SLC 2
Pretty good but you missed NC Central. I think they could knock out Sac St or UIW. I definitely don't think Sac St is safe at 7-4. That Stanford win will get them some good equity but enough to make up for a 4-4 conference record and no substantial wins outside of that?

[Gil Dobie]

Pretty good but you missed NC Central. I think they could knock out Sac St or UIW. I definitely don't think Sac St is safe at 7-4. That Stanford win will get them some good equity but enough to make up for a 4-4 conference record and no substantial wins outside of that?

Sac St has a win against the field.

[mvfcfan]

Pretty good but you missed NC Central. I think they could knock out Sac St or UIW. I definitely don't think Sac St is safe at 7-4. That Stanford win will get them some good equity but enough to make up for a 4-4 conference record and no substantial wins outside of that?

Valid points. You're probably right about NC Central sneaking in, even though in my view the MEAC and SWAC shouldn't ever get a team in the field unless they want to send their best. I seen their record of 9-2 and just assumed they were going to be in the Celebration Bowl. Unfortunately if they do make it they'll probably just lose like every other MEAC/SWAC team does when they make it.

Sac State probably isn't safe either. If they do make it, it will be because of the Stanford and Nicholls wins. Bad part for Sac State is that those wins were at the beginning of the season.

[ysubigred]

Who's ready for a 4-7 North Alabama to make the playoffs after they beat Florida St???It's not looking good now.. but what would SDSU do against FSU!?

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[Christiank22]

It's not looking good now.. but what would SDSU do against FSU!?

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Lose by a wide margin lol

[ysubigred]

Lose by a wide margin lolI wouldn't bet a paycheck on that.. the ACC is overrated.. Hell, Louisville is a top 10 team, lol.

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[Professor Chaos]

Sac St has a win against the field.
Meh... from a weak conference. UND (over Drake), SDSU (over Drake), and Delaware (over Duquesne) have similar wins over weak conference champs.

[Grizzlies82]

I'll go ahead and take a wild guess on the top 8.

1 SDSU
2 MONTANA
3 S DAKOTA
4 IDAHO
5 VILLANOVA
6 MT STATE
7 NDSU
8 FURMAN


I'd guess Furman is ahead of both MT State and NDSU. One of those two will end up the #8 seed, and the other won't be seeded at all.

[JacksFan40]

Lose by a wide margin lol
FSU isn’t Georgia, Alabama, or Ohio State. It’d be 20 at most.

[Gil Dobie]

Meh... from a weak conference. UND (over Drake), SDSU (over Drake), and Delaware (over Duquesne) have similar wins over weak conference champs.

The computers have Nichols rated a lot higher than Drake or Duquesne. Sac St is rated a lot higher than NCCU, and SOS has Sac St playing a much more difficult schedule. ICW is still higher than NCCU, but close enough where they could get bumped.

[Christiank22]

I'd guess Furman is ahead of both MT State and NDSU. One of those two will end up the #8 seed, and the other won't be not seeded at all.

Who takes their place?

[Professor Chaos]

The computers have Nichols rated a lot higher than Drake or Duquesne. Sac St is rated a lot higher than NCCU, and SOS has Sac St playing a much more difficult schedule. ICW is still higher than NCCU, but close enough where they could get bumped.
I'd agree that Sac St should be in over NCCU I just don't think they're safely in - losing to UC Davis is a double whammy for them since it's put them on the bubble and knocked them below UC Davis.

[Chalupa Batman]

This is what I came up with. Not forecasting home/away teams in the first round just matchups.

Western Carolina/Austin Peay @ #1 South Dakota State
Mercer/North Carolina Central @ #8 North Dakota State

Delaware/Lafayette @ #4 Albany
Montana State/Drake @ #5 Idaho

North Dakota/Nicholls @ #3 South Dakota
Youngstown State/Duquesne @ #6 Villanova

Southern Illinois/Chattanooga @ #2 Montana
Richmond/Gardner-Webb @ #7 Furman


Figuring out the bubble this year is TOUGH! My last 4 in were Southern Illinois, Western Carolina, Chattanooga, & North Carolina Central. First 4 out were UC Davis, Sac State, UT Martin, & Incarnate Word.

[atthewbon]

I agree with 1-5, but I’d have 6-8 be Idaho, NDSU, and Furman in that order with how things played out today. Montana State’s best win was by far Sac State and that no longer looks very good. I don’t like their odds of being seeded.

Agreed I feel pretty good about 1-5. But 6-8 will be interesting. Idaho is also making a statement right now that could help boost their case.


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[ElCid]

I think if Idaho wins it should probably end up
1. SDSU
2. Montana
3. USD
4. Albany
5. Villanova
6. Furman
7. Idaho
8. Montana State

NDSU and Austin Peay would have arguments as well. Idk how much the committee punishes Furman for that loss, it wouldn't completely shock me if they drop out of the seeds all together. If they punish them a lot and Idaho looses I think NDSU and Austin Peay are the last two seeds.

Furman will be a seed. What number TBD. Conf rivalry games are always a crap shoot. Furman and Wofford are like 25 miles apart and have met like 90 plus times. Still a bad loss. But still good enough for 6-8 considering the rest of the season. Austin Peay has been quietly creeping up, and has a good argument. I have a feeling either Mont St or Idaho might be left out.

[atthewbon]

Furman will be a seed. What number TBD. Conf rivalry games are always a crap shoot. Furman and Wofford are like 25 miles apart and have met like 90 plus times. Still a bad loss. But still good enough for 6-8 considering the rest of the season. Austin Peay has been quietly creeping up, and has a good argument. I have a feeling either Mont St or Idaho might be left out.

I definitely think Furman should be and probably will be a seed, but it also would shock me if they are left out of the seeds. I think Montana State is much more likely to be left out than Idaho. The big problem for Austin Peay is the loss to SIU who NDSU beat, neither game was super close. It was week one, and Austin Peay has 9 straight wins, and their only other loss is to Tennessee.

[Utgrizfan]

Weirdly enough both NDSU and Montana State have eriely similar resumes:

-Both have a blowout loss to a rival (UND and Montana)

-Both lost a close game against a ranked opponent (USD and Idaho)

-Both lost to SDSU but MSU almost beat the Jackrabbits

Honestly I could see both of them getting a seed or neither of them getting a seed.

[Grizzlies82]

Who takes their place?

So Dakota State, Univ. of Montana, So Dakota. After those first 3 seeds it's hard to say.

My hunches are: Any 9-2, and 9-3 Albany, will trump any of the 8-3. Idaho will get the best seed of the 8-3 teams.

So then #4, 5, 6, and 7 (in no particular order) is Villanova, Furman, Albany, and Idaho.

That leave No Dakota St, Montana St, and whomever else hoping for that final #8 seed. The cats may have the advantage as the three teams they lost to are all among the top 7 playoff teams. That is my take on it.