SoCon 2023 Predictions and Power Rankings - Week 11 - CHAMP. WK Part 2 & PLAYOFF WK

[FUBeAR]

FUBeAR's Weekly Preview (Picks will be later in the week)



Away
Home
Time
Thoughts


https://soconsports.com/images/logos/East-Tenn-State.png?width=30ETSU (https://etsubucs.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_wcu.png?width=30WCU (https://catamountsports.com/)
1P
WCU looks to keep their Playoff, SoCon Championship, and even a possible Playoff Seed hopes alive in what could be a very tricky game for the Catamounts. ETSU seems to have found an Offense to complement their solid Defense, while WCU struggled mightily on the road to top Winless Wofford by the margin of a 4th quarter field goal, and has lost their last 2 at Home. These schools are only about 100 miles apart and this is a rivalry game. It should be quite a fracas.


https://soconsports.com/images/logos/VMI_spider_four_color-2015.png?width=30VMI (https://vmikeydets.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_furman.png?width=30Furman (http://www.furmanpaladins.com/)
1:30P

Chgd
from
1P
A rapidly improving, and now quite good, Keydet squad looks to lay siege to Travelers Rest and ruin the SoCon's & Furman's chances of getting a Top 2 Seed in the FCS Playoffs. A win by VMI would also keep SoCon Championship (though not AutoBid - Furman owns that outright) hopes alive for Chattanooga, Mercer, and WCU as all could finish @ 6-2. Chatt already has. A Furman win clinches the Paladins 1st outright SoCon Championship since 1990 and keeps Furman's hopes for a #1 or #2 Playoff Seed alive and well. Furman could very well engage in this battle against the Virginia Military Institute without the leadership of their STAR Field General, Lt. QB Tyler Huff. Understudy Carson Jones seems to have 'the right stuff' though as he calmly led the Paladins to a comeback victory over a Chattanooga Team that should not only be IN the Playoffs, but should probably be in the conversation for a Seed in the 6-8 range.


https://soconsports.com/images/2023/5/30/Terriers_StackedWHITE.png?width=30Wofford (http://woffordterriers.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_citadel.png?width=30CIT (http://www.citadelsports.com/)
2P
Is this the game of the day? 0-9 Teams squaring off in The Holy City to try to exorcise the demons that have derailed their seasons / football programs. With Wofford closing with SoCon Champion / 1st Place Furman, the odds say the Terriers must win this one or they will finish 0fer 2023. CIT has better odds traveling to ETSU, but the Bucs are coming on and they could quite possibly be playing next week with the confidence gained from an upset Win in Cullowhee. This could be the bellhops only and certainly best chance to avoid also going 0fer 2023. Bottom line - we do know that both of these Teams cannot lose this Saturday. This should be a fun watch. FUBeAR expect both Teams to GO HARD and BALL OUT....really.


https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_samford.png?width=30Samford (http://www.samfordsports.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_mercer.png?width=30Mercer (http://www.mercerbears.com/)
3P
Here we are again. Final game of the season for Mercer, a Team that has never received a berth in the FCS Playoffs AND has been very, very, very, very, very, very close to that elusive goal from their 1st year in 2013 when a win at Marist would have done the trick to the past 2 years when they have LITERALLY been inches away from reaching @ ETSU in '21 and @ Samford in '22. FUBeAR believes a win for Mercer and they are IN and a loss for Mercer and they are OUT. At least the Bears are home this time - the other 3 near misses were road losses. Like WCU and Chatt, Mercer also still has hopes for a SoCon Championship if they win this game and the Keydets and Terriers can both upset the Paladins. Samford doesn't have a shot at the SoCon Championship with 3 losses (WCU, Chatt, and FU) already, but the Bulldogs could somehow sneak into the At-Large Playoff conversation with wins over Mercer this week and UT-Martin next week. Besides the possibility of Playoffs, Samford would love nothing more than to spoil Mercer's Playoff chances. Michael Hier's injury at the end of the the Mercer game last year, as much as anything else (including having to play in the FargoDome) derailed Samford's Playoffs last year. And, the last time Samford came to Macon, they lost a WILD 45-42 night time thriller. The Bulldogs will be looking to avenge both of those affronts this week.




FUBeAR's SoCon Power Rankings
1) Furman - No change - This Team is built to win Football games. It's what they do.
2) Mercer - No change - Looked a little herky-jerky in a 'look-ahead' spot @ CIT, but a 3 score + road win is a 3 score + road WIN. Looking to finally punch that Playoff Golden Ticket they've been holding for 10 prior seasons.
3) Chattanooga - No change - Talent and Heart - this Mocs Team has an abundance of both. It would be a Sports FELONY to not include Chatt in the FCS Playoffs. BEAT BAMA!!!
4) Samford - No change - Rested and put in all kinds of stuff to defeat Mercer this week. This is an extremely talented Team that is finally playing loose and up to their potential.
5) VMI - SURGING now. FUBeAR noticed the week-to-week improvement occurring for VMI as their solid D held things together until their Offense jelled. You don't come from behind to win and put up 17 points in the 4th quarter if you aren't a WINNING Football Team.
6) WCU - Losing 2 at home and then struggling to stay in the game with a winless Team are, unfortunately, weighing down the Catamounts in the FUBeAR Power Rankings. They need to find their mojo - maybe the Cullowhee Little People in the Tunnels have it - and get back on track at home this week.
7) ETSU - Game squad. Finding things as each series and game passes. Tough late loss to VMI. Let's see how they travel to NC this week.
8) Wofford - Hanging with and often leading a Team that some had ranked, rightly so, as the #5 Team in FCS, for all 4 quarters does not appear to be the hallmark of a winless Team. The Terriers are getting close.
9) The Citadel - Plucky group that is still playing HARD every down. Have to respect this Team. As much as FUBeAR hates the bellhops, FUBeAR finds this CIT squad a bit lovable.

[bonarae]

Furman
WCU
Wofford - I'm afraid it could go either way
Mercer

[Sir William]

Furman over VMI
W Carolina over ETSU
Wofford over The Citadel
Mercer over Samford

Power Rankings

1) Furman
2) Mercer
3) Chattanooga
4) W Carolina
5) Samford
6) VMI
7) ETSU
8) Wofford
9) The Citadel

[FUBeAR]

Power Rankings

1) Furman
2) Mercer

https://www.azquotes.com/picture-quotes/quote-speech-is-power-speech-is-to-persuade-to-convert-to-compel-it-is-to-bring-another-out-ralph-waldo-emerson-57-54-53.jpg

[caribbeanhen]

Furman

[FUBeAR]

Furman
FUBeAR can respect this assessment. While incomplete, it is not inaccurate.

[ElCid]

FUBeAR can respect this assessment. While incomplete, it is not inaccurate.

Furman sucks. They have always sucked. They suck today. They will always suck. It's one of nature's laws.

[FUBeAR]

Furman sucks. They have always sucked. They suck today. They will always suck. It's one of nature's laws.
OTOH...

[kdinva]

I don't know the status of Furman's #1 QB, but VMI won in Johnson City with their #2 QB, and with the #1 and #3 receivers (Knox, VJ Johnson) out for the year.....

[caribbeanhen]

When did Rocco become the next Dexter Riley?

The Computer Wore Tennis Shoes (1969)

https://worldfilmgeek.files.wordpress.com/2019/11/thecomputerworetennisshoes-still.jpg?w=816

[FUBeAR]

I don't know the status of Furman's #1 QB, but VMI won in Johnson City with their #2 QB, and with the #1 and #3 receivers (Knox, VJ Johnson) out for the year.....
At this point in the season, the guy taking the field is the #1.

Carson Jones will be Furman's #1 QB this coming Saturday. Tyler Huff has a sprained shoulder and his status is "week-to-week"

Also - curious - from a brief interview FUBeAR saw with Coach Rocco, it seemed VMI had made a change (by choice) at QB for the ETSU game - going with Shannon over Ironside.

Looks like Ironside was pulled after this play early in the 4th Quarter vs. Chattanooga and has not taken a snap since...



2nd and 8 at UTC8
Ironside,Collin pass intercepted by Walker,Jordan at UTC00, Touchback.



No?

[FUBeAR]

So...FUBeAR keeps reading all of these Big Sky Fans and Big Sky FanBoys in the national FCS media talking about how much stronger the Big Sky Conference is than the SoCon and this is the reason why Montana, Idaho, and Montana State all should be Ranked/Seeded higher than Furman...even though Furman's current resume (FCS losses / Ranked Wins / etc.) is better than any of those 3, and (assuming wins over VMI and Wofford - no easy task!) will be better than any of those 3 when Playoff Seeds are determined.

Well - we all know that everyone hates using "transitive properties" / "transitive scores" to compare Teams that haven't played and we all know (though some refuse to admit) that Strength of Schedule calculations ALL have both bias flaws and circular logic flaws built into them. So....the best we can do is evaluate head-to-head matchups. Right?

Below is the entire history of SoCon vs. Big Sky Football - this is inclusive of Current Teams in either conference facing off against Teams from the other conference when both Teams were members of their respective conferences. None of these are very recent. So, one can make the argument that they are irrelevant. Well, unless one also accepts the arguments that subjective opinions, transitive results, and badly flawed strength of schedule calculations are also irrelevant, FUBeAR doesn't accept the lack of recency argument.

So...we are left with resumes...and Furman's resume is just better - despite all of the Fan & Media FanBoy claims.

Here's the COMPLETE history of Big Sky vs. SoCon matchups - pretty even, with a slight edge to the SoCon - except when Big Sky Teams travel to the SoCon. Then they get their butts kicked about 42-10....Y'all come on down! You ain't skeered, is you? We understand that NO BIG SKY FOOTBALL TEAM HAS EVER WON AN AWAY GAME AGAINST A SOCON FOOTBALL TEAM...but we're really hospitable otherwise.



Winner
Loser
Date
Season
Location
Score
Notes


Chattanooga
Weber State
11/26/2016
2016
Finley Stadium, Chattanooga, TN
45 - 14
1st Round of Playoffs


Wofford
Montana
11/24/2007
2007
Washington-Grizzly Stadium, Missoula, MT
23 - 22
1st Round of Playoffs


Montana State
Furman
11/25/2006
2006
Bobcat Stadium, Bozeman, MT
31 - 13
1st Round of Playoffs


Montana
Furman
12/21/2001
2001
Neutral - Finley Stadium, Chattanooga, TN
13 - 6
National Championship


Montana
ETSU
12/7/1996
1996
Washington-Grizzly Stadium, Missoula, MT
44 - 14
Playoff Quarterfinal


Furman
Northern Arizona
11/30/1996
1996
Walkup Skydome, Flagstaff, AZ
42 - 31
1st Round of Playoffs


Furman
Idaho
12/10/1988
1988
Paladin Stadium, Greenville, SC
38 - 7
Playoff Semifinal











SoCon Wins
SoCon Losses







4
3







SoCon Home Wins
SoCon Home Losses







2
0







SoCon Away Wins
SoCon Away Losses







2
2







SoCon Neutral Wins
SoCon Neutral Losses







0
1

[ElCid]

So...FUBeAR keeps reading all of these Big Sky Fans and Big Sky FanBoys in the national FCS media talking about how much stronger the Big Sky Conference is than the SoCon and this is the reason why Montana, Idaho, and Montana State all should be Ranked/Seeded higher than Furman...even though Furman's current resume (FCS losses / Ranked Wins / etc.) is better than any of those 3, and (assuming wins over VMI and Wofford - no easy task!) will be better than any of those 3 when Playoff Seeds are determined.

Well - we all know that everyone hates using "transitive properties" / "transitive scores" to compare Teams that haven't played and we all know (though some refuse to admit) that Strength of Schedule calculations ALL have both bias flaws and circular logic flaws built into them. So....the best we can do is evaluate head-to-head matchups. Right?

Below is the entire history of SoCon vs. Big Sky Football - this is inclusive of Current Teams in either conference facing off against Teams from the other conference when both Teams were members of their respective conferences. None of these are very recent. So, one can make the argument that they are irrelevant. Well, unless one also accepts the arguments that subjective opinions, transitive results, and badly flawed strength of schedule calculations are also irrelevant, FUBeAR doesn't accept the recency argument.

So...we are left with resumes...and Furman's resume is just better - despite all of the Fan & Media FanBoy claims.

Here's the COMPLETE history of Big Sky vs. SoCon matchups - pretty even, with a slight edge to the SoCon - except when Big Sky Teams travel to the SoCon. Then they get their butts kicked about 42-10....Y'all come on down! You ain't skeered, is you? We understand that NO BIG SKY FOOTBALL TEAM HAS EVER WON AN AWAY GAME AGAINST A SOCON FOOTBALL TEAM...but we're really hospitable otherwise.



Winner
Loser
Date
Season
Location
Score
Notes


Chattanooga
Weber State
11/26/2016
2016
Finley Stadium, Chattanooga, TN
45 - 14
1st Round of Playoffs


Wofford
Montana
11/24/2007
2007
Washington-Grizzly Stadium, Missoula, MT
23 - 22
1st Round of Playoffs


Montana State
Furman
11/25/2006
2006
Bobcat Stadium, Bozeman, MT
31 - 13
1st Round of Playoffs


Montana
Furman
12/21/2001
2001
Neutral - Finley Stadium, Chattanooga, TN
13 - 6
National Championship


Montana
ETSU
12/7/1996
1996
Washington-Grizzly Stadium, Missoula, MT
44 - 14
Playoff Quarterfinal


Furman
Northern Arizona
11/30/1996
1996
Walkup Skydome, Flagstaff, AZ
42 - 31
1st Round of Playoffs


Furman
Idaho
12/10/1988
1988
Paladin Stadium, Greenville, SC
38 - 7
Playoff Semifinal











SoCon Wins
SoCon Losses







4
3







SoCon Home Wins
SoCon Home Losses







2
0







SoCon Away Wins
SoCon Away Losses







2
2







SoCon Neutral Wins
SoCon Neutral Losses







0
1








Really? Recency may not matter exclusively, but games from 27 and 35 years ago mean ... absolutely nothing. Games from ten years are meaningless. I wouldn't even consider anything more than about 5 years when looking at conferences or teams. Not even that much sometimes. It just depends. Anything else is just posturing.

[caribbeanhen]

Really? Recency may not matter exclusively, but games from 27 and 35 years ago mean ... absolutely nothing. Games from ten years are meaningless. I wouldn't even consider anything more than about 5 years when looking at conferences or teams. Not even that much sometimes. It just depends. Anything else is just posturing.

The way FCS has been this year games from last week are suspect

Hopefully, and wouldn’t it be fun to see some Big Sky vs Southern in the playoffs

[caribbeanhen]

At this point in the season, the guy taking the field is the #1.

Carson Jones will be Furman's #1 QB this coming Saturday. Tyler Huff has a sprained shoulder and his status is "week-to-week"

Also - curious - from a brief interview FUBeAR saw with Coach Rocco, it seemed VMI had made a change (by choice) at QB for the ETSU game - going with Shannon over Ironside.

Looks like Ironside was pulled after this play early in the 4th Quarter vs. Chattanooga and has not taken a snap since...



2nd and 8 at UTC8
Ironside,Collin pass intercepted by Walker,Jordan at UTC00, Touchback.



No?

Did you make it all the way through without dozing off?

[FUBeAR]

Really? Recency may not matter exclusively, but games from 27 and 35 years ago mean ... absolutely nothing. Games from ten years are meaningless. I wouldn't even consider anything more than about 5 years when looking at conferences or teams. Not even that much sometimes. It just depends. Anything else is just posturing.
Cool - you don't accept the historical head-to-head matchup argument as relevant. Fair enough.

Then, FUBeAR refuses to accept anyone's argument that subjective opinions, transitive results, and/or flawed strength of schedule calculations are relevant.

So .... we're left with comparing 'resumes' ...

Furman's resume is just better than any of the Big Sky contenders...given our rejection of our respective arguments.

/EndArgument

[FUBeAR]

wouldn’t it be fun to see some Big Sky vs Southern in the playoffs
Yes - seeing those games played outdoors in crisp southern late fall / early winter weather would be glorious.

[FU_Paladin08]

Furman over VMI
Mercer over Sammy
Western over ETSU
Woffy over Citadel


Rankings:
Furman
Mercer
Western
Chatty
Samford
VMI
ETSU
Woffy
Citadel

[ElCid]

Cool - you don't accept the historical head-to-head matchup argument as relevant. Fair enough.

Then, FUBeAR refuses to accept anyone's argument that subjective opinions, transitive results, and/or flawed strength of schedule calculations are relevant.

So .... we're left with comparing 'resumes' ...

Furman's resume is just better than any of the Big Sky contenders...given our rejection of our respective arguments.

/EndArgument


I don't think any of these are conclusive either. But taken as whole picture, limited transitive results and SOS are valid data points to consider. Transitive results going out to the third, fourth, etc degree obviously aren't. But common opponents certainly are in most cases. However, you still need to do due diligence by looking at home/away, off weeks, rivalries and series history, injuries, etc. when looking at common opponents. The Big Sky SOS is living off a couple FBS games that were close or won. FBS, like Lower division games throw a monkey wrench in SOS. Mainly because there are so few in comparison to FCS/FCS. Here is an example. If team A in any particular conference beats an FBS, especially a P5, and then gets thumped by Team B, a mediocre conference-mate, and then team C, a bad conference-mate, thumps team B, because they have one good game, you get all sorts of SOS inflation going on in a conference. And then people start saying, oh boy look at team C, they are actually good, so when Team A beats Team C, people start looking at it as a "good win" or at least something other than simply a win. It evens out as time passes, but once conf play happens, conference also become more shielded and it becomes a circular phenomena. An imperfect, but close, example of this could be the CAA last year and W&M, Elon, NH, etc. Not picking on them, but how did their playoffs go. So I'm not disagreeing with you, but qualifying your position. You still need to look at all data points.

[FUBeAR]

Rankings:
Furman
Mercer

https://www.azquotes.com/picture-quotes/quote-speech-is-power-speech-is-to-persuade-to-convert-to-compel-it-is-to-bring-another-out-ralph-waldo-emerson-57-54-53.jpg

[FUBeAR]

I don't think any of these are conclusive either. But taken as whole picture, limited transitive results and SOS are valid data points to consider. Transitive results going out to the third, fourth, etc degree obviously aren't. But common opponents certainly are in most cases. However, you still need to do due diligence by looking at home/away, off weeks, rivalries and series history, injuries, etc. when looking at common opponents. The Big Sky SOS is living off a couple FBS games that were close or won. FBS, like Lower division games throw a monkey wrench in SOS. Mainly because there are so few in comparison to FCS/FCS. Here is an example. If team A in any particular conference beats an FBS, especially a P5, and then gets thumped by Team B, a mediocre conference-mate, and then team C, a bad conference-mate, thumps team B, because they have one good game, you get all sorts of SOS inflation going on in a conference. And then people start saying, oh boy look at team C, they are actually good, so when Team A beats Team C, people start looking at it as a "good win" or at least something other than simply a win. It evens out as time passes, but once conf play happens, conference also become more shielded and it becomes a circular phenomena. An imperfect, but close, example of this could be the CAA last year and W&M, Elon, NH, etc. Not picking on them, but how did their playoffs go. So I'm not disagreeing with you, but qualifying your position. You still need to look at all data points.
So...in a lot of words, you are agreeing that SoS Calculations and Transitive Results are flawed. Not very hard to KNOW that Subjective ('my Dad can beat up your Dad') opinions are flawed.

So...sure we can look at all data points...but all FUBeAR hears / sees / reads is that the Big Sky Conference is so superior to the SoCon with nothing to validate that other than flawed SoS claims.

The FCS National Media has now created a Big Sky Merry-Go-Round 2-3-4 blockade by suddenly elevating Montana and Idaho ahead of Furman and not dropping Montana State below them when they lost to Idaho who had lost to Montana ... who lost to Northern Arizona, barely beat a D2 Team, and was highly unimpressive against a non-scholarship Team. So, with no upsets (by E Wash, IDSt, PortlandSt, or WeberSt), they won't drop the loser of the MTSt @ MT game below Furman either....and (assumptively) 10-0 in FCS Furman is hoping to hang on to the #5 Seed over South Dakota.

FCS 10-0 Samford, of the SoCon, was the #6 Seed last year. 10-1 Overall, with an SEC win, ETSU, of the SoCon, was the #7 Seed in 2021. There is no good reason to think the Playoff Selection Committee won't screw Furman this year. It seems the FCS National Media is putting the full court press on to ensure that they do.

[FUBeAR]

RIP Coach Torbush. He did an outstanding job bringing the Bucs back to life.

https://twitter.com/etsuathletics/status/1722011608766181864

[gofurman]

I don't know the status of Furman's #1 QB, but VMI won in Johnson City with their #2 QB, and with the #1 and #3 receivers (Knox, VJ Johnson) out for the year.....


Kdinva. Hi. yes we are without our starting 2nd team all conference QB. Huff. Number 6. Twice the offensive player of the week for the conference. So you will see our backup qb number 5 JONES.

*** so Knox and Johnson at WR are definitely out? Is that right

[Milktruck74]

I don't think any of these are conclusive either. But taken as whole picture, limited transitive results and SOS are valid data points to consider. Transitive results going out to the third, fourth, etc degree obviously aren't. But common opponents certainly are in most cases. However, you still need to do due diligence by looking at home/away, off weeks, rivalries and series history, injuries, etc. when looking at common opponents. The Big Sky SOS is living off a couple FBS games that were close or won. FBS, like Lower division games throw a monkey wrench in SOS. Mainly because there are so few in comparison to FCS/FCS. Here is an example. If team A in any particular conference beats an FBS, especially a P5, and then gets thumped by Team B, a mediocre conference-mate, and then team C, a bad conference-mate, thumps team B, because they have one good game, you get all sorts of SOS inflation going on in a conference. And then people start saying, oh boy look at team C, they are actually good, so when Team A beats Team C, people start looking at it as a "good win" or at least something other than simply a win. It evens out as time passes, but once conf play happens, conference also become more shielded and it becomes a circular phenomena. An imperfect, but close, example of this could be the CAA last year and W&M, Elon, NH, etc. Not picking on them, but how did their playoffs go. So I'm not disagreeing with you, but qualifying your position. You still need to look at all data points.


This this this.... Common opponent is probably the best predictor we have, but the team that plays a game played in week 2 is not the same team that plays in week 8. A prime example is Team A beating team B by 10 one week, Team B beating team C by 14 the following week....6 weeks later....one would expect team A to beat Team C by 3+ TDs..... Nope.... Team POWER C by 12!!!! Just saying, you have to play the games!!!

[ncspiderfan]

The way FCS has been this year games from last week are suspect

Hopefully, and wouldn’t it be fun to see some Big Sky vs Southern in the playoffs

Yes, and it might be interesting if some of the Big Sky teams get to fly east, not excuse making from the past, but interesting to watch.

[FUBeAR]

This this this.... Common opponent is probably the best predictor we have, but the team that plays a game played in week 2 is not the same team that plays in week 8. A prime example is Team A beating team B by 10 one week, Team B beating team C by 14 the following week....6 weeks later....one would expect team A to beat Team C by 3+ TDs..... Nope.... Team POWER C by 12!!!! Just saying, you have to play the games!!!

...and it follows that Team C losing to Team W by 2 in Week 6 would be followed in Week 9 by Team A (AKA Team M) losing to Team W by 14.... Nope.... Team M by 7 over Team W (while leading by 2 or 3 scores for half of the game)!!!! Just saying, you have to play the games!!!

...Then you have to evaluate Teams on their FULL body of work, which includes their Week 0 and Week 1 games, as well as their Week 6 and Week 9 games, of course.

...Which is to say...If Mercer beats Samford and Chatt loses to Alabama, Mercer's 8-3 / 8-2 vs. FCS Playoff Resume > Chatt's 7-4 / 7-3 vs. FCS Playoff Resume


That said ... BEAT BAMA!!!!

[FUBeAR]

Yes, and it might be interesting if some of the Big Sky teams get to fly east, not excuse making from the past, but interesting to watch.
With the near-lockstep narrative that the FCS National Media has created to influence the decisions of the Playoff Selection Committee, the only Big Sky Team that might have to leave their Home before the Semifinals is Sacramento State.

With the "2-3-4 Seed Big Sky Lockout Merry-Go-Round" they have created, Montana, Idaho, and Montana State (barring upsets by 4-5's Portland State, Weber State, Eastern Washington, or 3-6 Idaho State) are LOCKED IN as the 2, 3, and 4 Seed, and will not travel until the Semifinal or the Championship Game (for the #2 Seed).

And with SacState's attendance, if they are not gifted (at 8-3) a lower seed by the Committee, as is highly possible, they will be Home for Round 1 and then most likely to Idaho for Round 2.

So...Bozeman, MT is about as far East as we'll see any Big Sky Team have to 'travel'...unless they get to Frisco, TX.



As Coach Melvin Brooks once said, "It's good to be (subjectively considered and gifted the title of) the King!"


https://youtu.be/8z8SpgmF0sA?feature=shared

[wcugrad95]

Most people will simply look at 8 > 7 and move on. I know we are trying to make this about Mercer, WCU, and UTC, but I honestly think if MU and WCU get to 8 wins the comparison for Chatt would be all the 7-win teams from the “big” conferences. There is going to be a whole bunch of them, along with some teams like UIW (who’ll probably finish 8-2 but lost against any team with a pulse), Lafayette could lose this week and not be the auto and be on the bubble with 8 wins, TN State can get to 8-wins, etc. UTC will lose out to some of the 7-win teams from the Big Sky and MVFC for the crazy perception about those leagues, but against lots of other bubble teams the Mocs will have name recognition as well as spending 1/2 or more of the season in the top-25. So they could get the nod over a lot of other teams. I for one believe they deserve it, but it would come down to things like how many teams from any given conference does the committee want to hand out.

[FUBeAR]

Most people will simply look at 8 > 7 and move on. I know we are trying to make this about Mercer, WCU, and UTC, but I honestly think if MU and WCU get to 8 wins the comparison for Chatt would be all the 7-win teams from the “big” conferences. There is going to be a whole bunch of them, along with some teams like UIW (who’ll probably finish 8-2 but lost against any team with a pulse), Lafayette could lose this week and not be the auto and be on the bubble with 8 wins, TN State can get to 8-wins, etc. UTC will lose out to some of the 7-win teams from the Big Sky and MVFC for the crazy perception about those leagues, but against lots of other bubble teams the Mocs will have name recognition as well as spending 1/2 or more of the season in the top-25. So they could get the nod over a lot of other teams. I for one believe they deserve it, but it would come down to things like how many teams from any given conference does the committee want to hand out.
True...

But if we DO want to compare Mercer's Playoff Resume to Chattanooga's Playoff Resumes (assuming MU over SU and Bama over UTC), then Mercer's is just better.

Also - in his interview with Sam Herder, the Montana AD that is Chair of the Committee made sure to say that they'll put ALL of the Big Sky and MVFC Teams in the bracket if they are the best Teams ... which, of course, he thinks they are ... "Western Illinois, Murray State, and Northern Colorado would ALL BOAT-RACE Furman!!!" - sez the Big Sky / MVFC Fan Bloc .... So....whatever that means for the SoCon's # of At-Large Bids...is what it means. xconfusedx

[wcugrad95]

I won't argue that if Mercer gets to 8 wins they will not have the better resume - they would. Two of Chatt's losses would be to two teams Mercer beat (WCU and tUNA), and that would trump the head-to-head as the "body of work" in my opinion. But if Mercer loses to Samford and both are at 7-4, it would maybe switch and could hurt the SOCON's chances of getting at least 3 in. If that happened and WCU loses either of our last 2, we could go from arguing about 4 getting in to only 1 getting in. I expect we end up with 3.

As for the other stuff, I have said in multiple threads the SOS is bloated based on the perception of strength. I know the algorithms and computers are supposed to change over time and take care of that, but somebody had to create the computations. So the progam will still have biases baked-in that inflate the strength of certain teams/leagues when so many of those teams start off (and stay) ranked because they lose to each other that "has to be a good loss" in the committee's eyes (and the computer's 0s and 1s).

[ElCid]

I won't argue that if Mercer gets to 8 wins they will not have the better resume - they would. Two of Chatt's losses would be to two teams Mercer beat (WCU and tUNA), and that would trump the head-to-head as the "body of work" in my opinion. But if Mercer loses to Samford and both are at 7-4, it would maybe switch and could hurt the SOCON's chances of getting at least 3 in. If that happened and WCU loses either of our last 2, we could go from arguing about 4 getting in to only 1 getting in. I expect we end up with 3.

As for the other stuff, I have said in multiple threads the SOS is bloated based on the perception of strength. I know the algorithms and computers are supposed to change over time and take care of that, but somebody had to create the computations. So the progam will still have biases baked-in that inflate the strength of certain teams/leagues when so many of those teams start off (and stay) ranked because they lose to each other that "has to be a good loss" in the committee's eyes (and the computer's 0s and 1s).

And the biggest issue the SOCON has is that while the MVFC, the Big Sky, and even moreso, the CAA, all have conf sizes which allow playoff capable teams of avoiding other playoff capable teams in conf play. The SOCON doesn't have years where teams can skate. So a team in those other conferences, that might only play one or two other playoff capable teams and they win both or split them, gets a pass primarily due to association rather than unquestioned accomplishment. The order of this egregious scheduling strategy from worse to least is CAA, BS, MVFC. Obviously based on size. It really doesn't apply to anyone else since the recent "who is on first" conference merry go round began and most other conferences are rumps of their former selves. The SOCON never has this benefit and must face every conf team every year. In years of great parity, it really hurts our playoff chances. This year with more stratification, we might see a change. Still TBD.

[kdinva]

And the biggest issue the SOCON has is that while the MVFC, the Big Sky, and even moreso, the CAA, all have conf sizes which allow playoff capable teams of avoiding other playoff capable teams in conf play. The SOCON doesn't have years where teams can skate. So a team in those other conferences, that might only play one or two other playoff capable teams and they win both or split them, gets a pass primarily due to association rather than unquestioned accomplishment. The order of this egregious scheduling strategy from worse to least is CAA, BS, MVFC. Obviously based on size. It really doesn't apply to anyone else since the recent "who is on first" conference merry go round began and most other conferences are rumps of their former selves. The SOCON never has this benefit and must face every conf team every year. In years of great parity, it really hurts our playoff chances. This year with more stratification, we might see a change. Still TBD.

This, nine or eight team conferences are by far the best for determining "who is the champ"......

[Sir William]

And the biggest issue the SOCON has is that while the MVFC, the Big Sky, and even moreso, the CAA, all have conf sizes which allow playoff capable teams of avoiding other playoff capable teams in conf play. The SOCON doesn't have years where teams can skate. So a team in those other conferences, that might only play one or two other playoff capable teams and they win both or split them, gets a pass primarily due to association rather than unquestioned accomplishment. The order of this egregious scheduling strategy from worse to least is CAA, BS, MVFC. Obviously based on size. It really doesn't apply to anyone else since the recent "who is on first" conference merry go round began and most other conferences are rumps of their former selves. The SOCON never has this benefit and must face every conf team every year. In years of great parity, it really hurts our playoff chances. This year with more stratification, we might see a change. Still TBD.

Well said.

[atthewbon]

I think Chattanooga is going to be in a really tough place, assuming they don't beat Bama. The loss to North Alabama is really going to hurt as a lot of could be bubble teams have beaten them. Mercer, UT Martin, Tarleton State, Central Arkansas, and Austin Peay all beat UNA and all could end up on the bubble. Mercer dropping their last game could help because they'd have the same record and the head to head over Mercer. I'd be interested to hear who you think would have a better resume out of the hypothetical 7-4 Chattanooga and Mercer.

[Mocs123]

Well we all know who FUBeAR thinks has the better resume! I'm biased too, so it might be best left to some fans of schools other than the Mocs and Bears. I'd point you to the head to head between the two and the games against Furman, where the Paladins beat the Bears soundly, but Chattanooga took Furman to the wire before dropping the game by 3. I'm sure FUBeAR would point you to the UNA games and WCU games.

[FUBeAR]

Well we all know who FUBeAR thinks has the better resume! I'm biased too, so it might be best left to some fans of schools other than the Mocs and Bears. I'd point you to the head to head between the two and the games against Furman, where the Paladins beat the Bears soundly, but Chattanooga took Furman to the wire before dropping the game by 3. I'm sure FUBeAR would point you to the UNA games and WCU games.FUBeAR could also point to the Mercer AT Furman game, that was many weeks ago, that was a 3 point game @ 17-14 (sound familiar?) heading almost into the 4th Quarter and Furman wasn’t missing the services of their most important Offensive and Defensive Players for most of the game.

BUT - he won’t do that because your assumption was incorrect. If Mercer loses to Samford, Chatt has the better Playoff Resume as compared to Mercer’s. Also, if Mercer loses to Samford, FUBeAR thinks the Bears have 0 chance of making the Playoffs BUT - if they beat Samford, they really should be in the conversation for a Seed - with a Top 10 Win and Losses to only FBS #9, FCS #2, and an unfortunate ‘bad’ loss to FCS #19. They won’t be in the conversation for a Seed, but they should be.

But, hey, FUBeAR heard one National FCS Pundit say that he gives Montana a “mulligan” for their loss to 3-6 NAU. Maybe Mercer can apply for a mulligan for their loss to 7-3 UTC.

[wcugrad95]

I always hate to do it, but I agree (at least to some points) of FUBeAR's post. That is why I said a loss by Mercer to Samford could basically flip the script/comparison. At 8-3, Mercer WILL be in and their resume is better with two wins over teams UTC lost to. If Mercer loses to Samford, they are probably out regardless but in the direct comparison Mercer would have the head-to-head loss, a loss to a team UTC beat by 23 points (although the Mocs had 2 defensive scores so maybe the game was closer than that), and a bigger loss to Furman (with Huff the whole game, but the committee will not look that deep).

Chattanooga is the only SOCON team IMO that can get a decent look at 7-4. Not agreeing with it, but WCU or Mercer at 7-4 won't get any kind of serious consideration (espcially Western). Chatty probably will because of their showing and close loss to Furman late in the season. I have used injuries and turnovers as excuses for WCU's losses, but in the end none of that matters much in the decisions and only results do.

Fair or not, going forward I expect most 7-4 SOCON teams will get left out unless we see some teams get deep runs. But that is hard to do when we A) often play each other in the first 2 rounds and B) we always get sent on a rough road trip no matter how worthy our champ is (see recent 10-1 teams that FUBeAR called out that couldn't get a quarterfinal or semifinal home game).

Oh and C) when our league only gets 2 in compared to other leagues getting 5 or 6 in, who do you expect to have more teams make it deeper into the playoffs? Then that turns around and drives the percieved "strength" of those leagues even further.

[kdinva]

......But, hey, FUBeAR heard one National FCS Pundit say that he gives Montana a “mulligan” for their loss to 3-6 NAU. Maybe Mercer can apply for a mulligan for their loss to 7-3 UTC.

xnodxxrolleyesx

[FU_Paladin08]

Of course this year the BS and MVFC top teams did end up having to play each other and they all get a big pat on the back for what the SoCon does every year. In other news…when looking over the Montana schedule they will only get to 8 D1 wins if they lose to MSU. That with a bad loss (NAU), good loss (MSU), and a pretty dismal OOC schedule wouldn’t normally warrant a top seed. Then looking at MSU we have weak OOC wins, 2 good losses (SDSU & Idaho) and 9 D1 wins. Idaho has the best schedule and losses, 9 D1 wins including a FBS (bottom dweller but better than other OOC wins from Big Sky), plus they were preseason ranked in line with Furman. All that said I will accept only Idaho to be seeded in front of Furman. Won’t like it, but I can at least wrap my head around some of the logic.

[Chalupa Batman]

Of course this year the BS and MVFC top teams did end up having to play each other and they all get a big pat on the back for what the SoCon does every year. In other news…when looking over the Montana schedule they will only get to 8 D1 wins if they lose to MSU. That with a bad loss (NAU), good loss (MSU), and a pretty dismal OOC schedule wouldn’t normally warrant a top seed. Then looking at MSU we have weak OOC wins, 2 good losses (SDSU & Idaho) and 9 D1 wins. Idaho has the best schedule and losses, 9 D1 wins including a FBS (bottom dweller but better than other OOC wins from Big Sky), plus they were preseason ranked in line with Furman. All that said I will accept only Idaho to be seeded in front of Furman. Won’t like it, but I can at least wrap my head around some of the logic.

I could see Idaho being ahead of Furman too, though it would be very close between the two of them. If Montana wins out I think it's a given they'll be the two seed. If MSU wins out they shouldn't jump ahead of Furman with 2 FCS losses but who knows if that's the way the committee sees it.

[FUBeAR]

If Montana wins out I think it's a given they'll be the two seed.
WHY?

Doesn't seem to be so cut & dried to FUBeAR ... unless you're talking about Furman earning the #2 Seed.

All FUBeAR sees is that Montana has had the opportunity to play and defeat some Teams that were ranked higher than the Teams Furman had the opportunity to play and defeat. Good for the Griz...BUT they really had nothing to do with who they were scheduled to play in the Big Sky (all ranked wins have been in conference) and their OOC schedule was tissue-paper weak...and they certainly didn't have anything to do with who Furman was scheduled to play.

As part of that roll of OOC tissue paper, Montana also played a D2 and a Non-Schollie...not very impressively either. Those games are part of their resume and cannot be ignored. Wins, sure...but not 'good wins'...not at all.

Both Teams beat every ranked Team they had the opportunity to play and Montana LOST to a 3-6 FCS Team. That cannot be overlooked!!!

Furman's resume is FAR BETTER than Montana's NOW and it will still be significantly better than Montana's on 11/18, assuming both win out.

It's all laid out for you (and the Playoff Selection Committee) below...in beautiful Purple and something resembling Maroon.




CURRENT



2. Furman
Resume Category
3. Montana


8-1
Record
8-1


8-0
FCS Record
7-1


None
Non-D1 Wins
1 (17-10 over D2 7-2 Ferris State)


None
Non-Scholarship Wins
1 (35-20 over 5-2 (vs D1's) Non-Scholarship Butler)


8
D1 Wins
7


8
D1 Scholarship Wins
6


0
FCS Losses
1 (3-6 NAU)


0
FBS Wins
0


3 (#21, #8, #14)
Then-Ranked Wins
3 (#20, #3, #7)


3 (#23, #17, #19)
Now-Ranked Wins
2 (#4, #9)


50th
Massey SOS
44th


7-1-3
Resume Categories:
Better-Worse-Tied
1-7-3


xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx



PROJECTED



2. Furman
Resume Category
3. Montana


10-1
Record
10-1


10-0
FCS Record
9-1


None
Non-D1 Wins
1 (17-10 over D2 7-2 Ferris State)


None
Non-Scholarship Wins
1 (5-2 v. D1 Butler)


10
D1 Wins
9


10
D1 Scholarship Wins
8


0
FCS Losses
1 (3-6 NAU)


0
FBS Wins
0


3 (#21, #8, #14)
Then-Ranked Wins
4 (#20, #3, #7, #5)


3 (#23, #17, #19)
Now-Ranked Wins
3 (#4, #9, #>5)


67th
Massey SOS
29th


6-2-3
Resume Categories:
Better-Worse-Tied
2-6-3




....AND...if anyone wants to say how important and accurate Massey's SoS Calculation is...FUBeAR gives them the following skewed up and screwed up data...



Team
Record
Massey FCS Rank
AGS Rank
STATS Rank
Coaches Rank


Furman (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/2800) Southern (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/14064)
8-1
11
2
2
2


UC Davis (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/8200) Big Sky (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/10668)
5-4
19
>34 Unranked
>33 Unranked
>35 Unranked


Weber St (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/8636) Big Sky (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/10668)
4-5
20
>34 Unranked
>33 Unranked
>35 Unranked


E Washington (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/2383) Big Sky (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/10668)
4-5
23
>34 Unranked
>33 Unranked
>35 Unranked


Chattanooga (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/7809) Southern (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/14064)
7-3
28
16
19
17


Mercer (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/4649) Southern (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/14064)
7-3
30
18
23
27


W Carolina (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/8742) Southern (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/14064)
6-3
33
21
17
21

[The Cats]

Do you people enjoy trolling Fubear?

Well you're driving the rest of us crazy doing it. He is NOT going to let you have the last word, it's in his DNA. even if he has to stay up day and night to post rebuttals, he'll do it.

Please, for the sake of our sanity, leave him alone, and maybe the SoCon Predictions and power ranking thread can return to that, rather than a defend the honor of Furman and Mercer thread.

[kdinva]

https://richmond.com/sports/college/dean-of-states-di-coaches-danny-rocco-says-sign-stealing-an-absolute-part-of-the/article_a6b3920e-7f09-11ee-9ea6-fbc3f3a41565.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share

interesting talk by Coach Rocco on sign stealing.....

[FUBeAR]

https://richmond.com/sports/college/dean-of-states-di-coaches-danny-rocco-says-sign-stealing-an-absolute-part-of-the/article_a6b3920e-7f09-11ee-9ea6-fbc3f3a41565.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share

interesting talk by Coach Rocco on sign stealing.....Heard Chatt’s Coach Wright comment on this recently as well. Said Jim Harbaugh shouldn’t have a job. Was quite definitive with his feelings on the matter.

[PaladinNation]

FYI…
https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/1722684916515676289

[FUBeAR]

FYI…
https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/1722684916515676289

Huff was selected from a list of 46 nominations (41 individuals and five programs) as the 2023 recipient by a nine-person committee made up of FWAA members and Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl officials.

WOW!!!

[Chalupa Batman]

Doesn't seem to be so cut & dried to FUBeAR


It’s not cut and dried to me either. I wasn’t saying that Montana SHOULD be the #2 seed if they win out, I was saying I think it’s a given the committee would seed them #2. I think Furman would still have a good argument for the #2 seed.


FYI…
https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/1722684916515676289

Congratulations to that young man! I'm hoping his shoulder injury isn't too serious and he's good to go for the playoffs.

[FUBeAR]

It’s not cut and dried to me either. I wasn’t saying that Montana SHOULD be the #2 seed if they win out, I was saying I think it’s a given the committee would seed them #2. I think Furman would still have a good argument for the #2 seed.



Congratulations to that young man! I'm hoping his shoulder injury isn't too serious and he's good to go for the playoffs.
Thanks - His (most likely) Grade 1 A/C Sprain will be good to go for the Playoffs

If not, based on FUBeAR's observation of the way he plays, he'll just gnaw off the offending right arm up past the shoulder and chunk it left handed from Travelers Rest to Frisco.

[FUBeAR]

FUBeAR's Weekly SoCon Picks & Power Rankings



Away
Home
Time
It will soon be revealed that…


https://soconsports.com/images/logos/East-Tenn-State.png?width=30ETSU (https://etsubucs.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_wcu.png?width=30WCU (https://catamountsports.com/)
1P
ETSU is starting to put some things together on Offense. They RAN THE DANG BALL against VMI. And, as challenging as it looks at times, Riddle the Younger is getting better with every snap. The Bucs D is good. #5 Arnold is certainly All SoCon, if not All-American. BUT, the LandPirates tend to walk themselves off the plank with penalties on both sides of the ball and turnovers. The Catamounts, after being beaten by better Teams, Furman & Mercer, and their near-debacle in SparkleCity, are now ‘over’ their own hype and have (perhaps temporarily) stopped trying to sell to the world that Kerwin Bell invented Football Offense. They know who they are now and they know what they need to do now, at home this week. WCU is a more talented Football Team than ETSU at this time and they will leverage that talent to win this Football game.

Final Score: WCU 31 - ETSU 24


https://soconsports.com/images/logos/VMI_spider_four_color-2015.png?width=30VMI (https://vmikeydets.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_furman.png?width=30Furman (http://www.furmanpaladins.com/)
1:30P

Chgd
from
1P
FUBeAR was a little surprised to see ETSU shredding VMI’s run D running outside zone over and over again last week. Furman’s Dom Roberto and Furman’s OL are pretty good at running IZ and mixing in some OZ with some of the other RB’s. FUBeAR suspects we’re going to see a lot of this until the Roos put almost all their pouches in the box and then Carson Jones is going to get some opportunities to show how he was about an 80% dart thrower in HS. FUBeAR knows the Keydets will put up a valiant fight and they may put up some yards, as they did on Chatt, but FUBeAR doesn’t see much leniency coming from this Paladin Defense. It’s a fight early, but Furman pulls away, fairly comfortably, in the 2nd half and clinches the Paladins 1st outright SoCon title since 1990.

Final Score: Furman 24 - VMI 10


https://soconsports.com/images/2023/5/30/Terriers_StackedWHITE.png?width=30Wofford (http://woffordterriers.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_citadel.png?width=30CIT (http://www.citadelsports.com/)
2P
This game is going to be so much fun to watch. Both of these Teams want a win so bad and both of these Teams have not wavered. Both squads have fought hard and played all out throughout all 18 of their combined losses. There’s no quit in either group and both Teams are much better now than they were in Week 1. FUBeAR thinks their Coaches & Staffs have done an outstanding job in very, very challenging circumstances. In almost every game these 2 Teams have played against each other in prior years, FUBeAR has wished there were somehow they both could lose. He wishes they both could win this one. But they can’t. CIT’s HFA is BIG, but Wofford is just a bit further down the rebuilding track and FUBeAR thinks that will give the Terriers their 1st (and last, for this season) win.

Final Score: Wofford 23 - The Citadel 20


https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_samford.png?width=30Samford (http://www.samfordsports.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_mercer.png?width=30Mercer (http://www.mercerbears.com/)
3P
Obviously, this is a HUGE game for Mercer. For the 3rd year in a row, Mercer enters their final regular season game with it being, essentially, a Play-IN game. By mere (cumulative) inches, the Bears lost the 1st in Johnson City and the 2nd in Homewood. This one takes place in Maconga. That has to make a difference. Mercer has a 0.672 winning percentage in Five Star Stadium and that has to matter. Since badly faltering on Offense vs. Chatt, as FUBeAR speculated might happen, the Bears changed/fixed some things and have averaged 38 PPG since. Meanwhile, the Bears are only giving up 20 PPG in SoCon games and have the SoCon’s #1 Total Defense. Everything ‘sets up’ well for Mercer to win this game, BUT Samford being off last week made it weird. Seems like the Bullpups kinda went off-the-grid and Coach Hatcher went into his Hatch Attack lab and brewed up some kinda new & improved Bear spray. Samford had been playing very well before their open date and they seemed to be returning to the Top 10 Team form that they are. FUBeAR has seen Mercer start games in the past (VMI ‘21 / Chatt ‘22) like they couldn’t give away the game fast enough. He fears this happening this Saturday and Samford being up 35-0 in the 1st quarter…BUT…if that doesn’t happen, Mercer is going to find a way to get it done at home as they have against Samford in their last 2 Maconga Matchups in 2021 (45-42) and 2019 (36-33).

Final Score: Mercer 38 - Samford 35




FUBeAR's SoCon Power Rankings
1) Furman - No change - This Team is built to win Football games. It's what they do.
2) Mercer - No change - Looked a little herky-jerky in a 'look-ahead' spot @ CIT, but a 3 score + road win is a 3 score + road WIN. Looking to finally punch that Playoff Golden Ticket they've been holding for 10 prior seasons.
3) Chattanooga - No change - Talent and Heart - this Mocs Team has an abundance of both. It would be a Sports FELONY to not include Chatt in the FCS Playoffs. BEAT BAMA!!!
4) Samford - No change - Rested and put in all kinds of stuff to defeat Mercer this week. This is an extremely talented Team that is finally playing loose and up to their potential.
5) VMI - SURGING now. FUBeAR noticed the week-to-week improvement occurring for VMI as their solid D held things together until their Offense jelled. You don't come from behind to win and put up 17 points in the 4th quarter if you aren't a WINNING Football Team.
6) WCU - Losing 2 at home and then struggling to stay in the game with a winless Team are, unfortunately, weighing down the Catamounts in the FUBeAR Power Rankings. They need to find their mojo - maybe the Cullowhee Little People in the Tunnels have it - and get back on track at home this week.
7) ETSU - Game squad. Finding things as each series and game passes. Tough late loss to VMI. Let's see how they travel to NC this week.
8) Wofford - Hanging with and often leading a Team that some had ranked, rightly so, as the #5 Team in FCS, for all 4 quarters does not appear to be the hallmark of a winless Team. The Terriers are getting close.
9) The Citadel - Plucky group that is still playing HARD every down. Have to respect this Team. As much as FUBeAR hates the bellhops, FUBeAR finds this CIT squad a bit lovable.[/QUOTE]

[kdinva]

Congrats to soon to be Lt. Huff,


FYI…
https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/1722684916515676289

[kdinva]

Mercer 34; Samford 27
WCU 35; ETSU 20
Wofford 24; Citadel 17
Furman 27, VMI 17

[FUBeAR]

Congrats to soon to be Lt. Huff,
Just to clarify…

“Huff was commissioned from Presbyterian College into the U. S. Army Reserves on May 13, 2022.”

…FUBeAR is no military expert, but it seems Lt. Huff has been Lt. Huff for about 1.5 years already. No?

[ElCid]

Just to clarify…

“Huff was commissioned from Presbyterian College into the U. S. Army Reserves on May 13, 2022.”

…FUBeAR is no military expert, but it seems Lt. Huff has been Lt. Huff for about 1.5 years already. No?

Probably meant to say 1st Lt. Promoted from 2nd Lt. Just speculating.

[caribbeanhen]

Just to clarify…

“Huff was commissioned from Presbyterian College into the U. S. Army Reserves on May 13, 2022.”

…FUBeAR is no military expert, but it seems Lt. Huff has been Lt. Huff for about 1.5 years already. No?

weekend warrior

yawn

[FUBeAR]

weekend warrior

yawn
Though your mouth will be gaping, it won't be yawns...as you watch this Saturday Warrior eviscerate the Wish-they-were-Purple Chickens in Greenville in the Playoffs...IF those FowlFeasants even make the Playoffs and IF the PeriwinklePoultry somehow find a way to defeat the NEC Champion in the 1st round.

[caribbeanhen]

Though your mouth will be gaping, it won't be yawns...as you watch this Saturday Warrior eviscerate the Wish-they-were-Purple Chickens in Greenville in the Playoffs...IF those FowlFeasants even make the Playoffs and IF the PeriwinklePoultry somehow find a way to defeat the NEC Champion in the 1st round.

xcoffeex

[The Cats]

ETSU (2-7, 1-5 SoCon) at Western Carolina (6-3, 4-2 SoCon)
VMI (4-5, 3-3 SoCon) at Furman (8-1, 6-0 SoCon)
Wofford (0-9, 0-6 SoCon) at The Citadel (0-9, 0-6 SoCon)
Samford (5-4, 4-3 SoCon) at Mercer (7-3, 5-2 SoCon)


Power Ranking
1. (1) Furman (-1, 6-0 SoCon)
Next: VMI (4-5, 3-3 SoCon)

2. (3) Mercer (7-3, 5-2 SoCon)
Next: Samford (5-4, 4-3 SoCon)

3. (4) Western Carolina (6-3, 4-2SoCon)
Next: ETSU (2-7, 1-5 SoCon)

4. (3) Chattanooga (7-3, 6-2 SoCon)
Next: Bye

5. (5) Samford (5-4, 4-3 SoCon)
Next: at Mercer (7-3, 5-2 SoCon)

6. (7) VMI (4-5, 3-3 SoCon)
Next: at Furman (8-1, 6-0 SoCon)

7. (6) ETSU (2-7, 1-5 SoCon)
Next: at Western Carolina (6-3, 4-2SoCon)

8. (8) The Citadel (0-9, 0-6 SoCon)
Next: Wofford (0-9, 0-6 SoCon)

9. (9) Wofford (0-9, 0-6 SoCon)
Next: at The Citadel (0-9, 0-6 SoCon)

[OrangeAndBlack]

Unfortunately, there's rain forecast for the Mercer/Samford showdown. That's going to thin out the crowd quite a bit I'd imagine. FUBear, what's your analysis of the rain impact on Samford and Mercer, respectively?

Give me all the home teams...

ETSU at WCU

VMI at FURMAN

Wofford at THE CITADEL

Samford at MERCER

[FUBeAR]

Unfortunately, there's rain forecast for the Mercer/Samford showdown. That's going to thin out the crowd quite a bit I'd imagine. FUBear, what's your analysis of the rain impact on Samford and Mercer, respectively?

Samford at MERCER
* The crowd is going to be massive.
* The only impact the weather will have on the game is that, with the cloudy skies, the late afternoon sun will not be in Mercer’s Devron Harper’s eyes before he catches & returns for TD’s both the opening Kickoff AND Samford’s Punt after their 1st series goes 3 & out…if the Bears don’t get their 4th Pick6 in 4 games in that 1st series.

https://i.postimg.cc/3JRfdg5M/IMG-0949.jpg

[ElCid]

Hey, we may suck in Football this year, but our girls volleyball just won the SOCON regular season outright and the #1 tournament seed. So we got that going for us.

The home teams all look like winners this week...oh yeah, except us. Woffy has always played well in Chucktown.

[FUBeAR]

Hey, we may suck in Football this year, but our girls volleyball just won the SOCON regular season outright and the #1 tournament seed. So we got that going for us.

The home teams all look like winners this week...oh yeah, except us. Woffy has always played well in Chucktown.
The Citadel always has been, is, and always will be a Girls Volleyball school in FUBeAR’s eyes. xthumbsupx


Congrats to the Team!!

[gofurman]

weekend warrior

yawn

I get it but he just won an award that to me is worth way more than a pure athletic award! The military award. All props to Huff. 40+ other nominees and he won. My father and uncle are both full colonels and thought this was outstanding

[kdinva]

weekend warrior

yawn

the only time any CAA team has anything to do military-wise is OOC contests @ USNA or @ USMA

[OrangeAndBlack]

* The crowd is going to be massive.
* The only impact the weather will have on the game is that, with the cloudy skies, the late afternoon sun will not be in Mercer’s Devron Harper’s eyes before he catches & returns for TD’s both the opening Kickoff AND Samford’s Punt after their 1st series goes 3 & out…if the Bears don’t get their 4th Pick6 in 4 games in that 1st series.

https://i.postimg.cc/3JRfdg5M/IMG-0949.jpg

The rain is coming down at gametime! Good news, Mercer leads 6-0. Bad news, they've fumbled 3 times and had a bad snap for a missed XP.

[wcugrad95]

WCU held ETSU to 215 total yards (Western had 687). Western also had 35 first downs. I had to double-check that number.

[OrangeAndBlack]

Incredible game by Mercer to move to 8-3 (6-2). They really got over the hump today, and so many guys gutted it out. Ty James came right back in the game with a hurt ankle. Tough!!

[wcugrad95]

Big win for the Mercer program - should definitely be in the field.

[caribbeanhen]

Sac St overrated and over ranked

[wcugrad95]

Sac St overrated and over ranked


I agree caribbeanhen :)

Maybe Idaho, too!

[caribbeanhen]

I agree caribbeanhen :)

Maybe Idaho, too!

I want to see the Big Sky out of the comfort bubble

let’s get some SoConf Big Sky match ups

[FUBeAR]

Sac St overrated and over ranked
You spelled Big Sky wrong

[FUBeAR]

I want to see the Big Sky out of the comfort bubble

let’s get some SoConf Big Sky match ups
Outside of the Arctic Circle…after the SoCon Team has had a week off, then a scrimmage with a cupcake, while the Big Sky Team has had no week off and had to go on the road 2 weeks already and play Teams worthy of Top 15 ranking. Then, we can fairly assess these matchups!

[FUBeAR]

I agree caribbeanhen :)

Maybe Idaho, too!
Exactly - MTSt BOAT-RACES MT next week and proves the Bobcats are the ONLY Big Sky Team worthy of a seed as they prove Idaho was just their Northern Arizona / Weber State.

[kdinva]

Still can't figure out how VMI laid eggs in Macon and Greenville......not that Mercer and Furman are not top 15 teams.....I just hope Rocco and the Seniors will give WCU all they want next saturday....

[BlackNGoldR3v0lut10n]

WCU held ETSU to 215 total yards (Western had 687). Western also had 35 first downs. I had to double-check that number.

And Somewhere in Heaven, Carl Torbush is shaking his head. Tell me ETSU turned into a bunch of quitters without telling me ETSU turned into a bunch of quitters.

[The Cats]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F-s4fEMWIAA3WM_?format=jpg&name=large

[walliver]

Hey, we may suck in Football this year, but our girls volleyball just won the SOCON regular season outright and the #1 tournament seed. So we got that going for us.

The home teams all look like winners this week...oh yeah, except us. Woffy has always played well in Chucktown.

This has long been a series where the visiting team seems to have an advantage.

[gofurman]

Congrats to Woff this week. Citadel. May end up winless. Furman coming to Woff. Next week

- - - Updated - - -

Congrats to Woff this week. Citadel. May end up winless. Furman coming to Woff. Next week

[ElCid]

Congrats to Woff this week. Citadel. May end up winless. Furman coming to Woff. Next week.

Yup. Very sad. Could be our first winless season in the last 105 years. Not since 1918 during WWI have we not won at least one game in a season. In modern times I don't think we have ever had less than two wins.

The Bulldogs faithful are bewildered. Our new coach could be expected to struggle a bit, but it seems like there have been some seriously questionable coaching decisions in many games. Players don't seem prepared. The play calling has been atrocious at times. Many of the assistant coaches have been populated by those who have a record of being losers in their previous positions. Not sure if he just took what he could get given the short time he had to put it together, but it doesn't seem like he got very successful ones. We will see if he sticks with them or tries to get ones who have actually had success. In any event, I'll put the blame of this historic winless season on the coaches.

[OrangeAndBlack]

I have to acknowledge that FUBear was right about his power rankings all year long. He stood his ground!

[FUBeAR]

I have to acknowledge that FUBear was right about his power rankings all year long. He stood his ground!
Thank you. FUBeAR's gotta admit that he wavered more than a little bit after Week 7, but the legacy of Coach T. Petty's (RIP) teachings just wouldn't allow it to go beyond that.


https://youtu.be/nvlTJrNJ5lA?feature=shared

[The Cats]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F-wd2aAWAAAl3n5?format=jpg&name=large

[BearDownMU]

Is there anyway you could repost that WCU graphic. But make it larger? xcoffeex

[The Cats]

xthumbsupx
Is there anyway you could repost that WCU graphic. But make it larger?

Sure, what size would you like? Anything for a Fubear buddy... xthumbsupx

[BlackNGoldR3v0lut10n]

Yup. Very sad. Could be our first winless season in the last 105 years. Not since 1918 during WWI have we not won at least one game in a season. In modern times I don't think we have ever had less than two wins.

The Bulldogs faithful are bewildered. Our new coach could be expected to struggle a bit, but it seems like there have been some seriously questionable coaching decisions in many games. Players don't seem prepared. The play calling has been atrocious at times. Many of the assistant coaches have been populated by those who have a record of being losers in their previous positions. Not sure if he just took what he could get given the short time he had to put it together, but it doesn't seem like he got very successful ones. We will see if he sticks with them or tries to get ones who have actually had success. In any event, I'll put the blame of this historic winless season on the coaches.

Billy Ray Valentine called. He said he bets you a dollar your team wins tomorrow.