TheValleyRaider
November 21st, 2007, 12:03 AM
After a long flight home from DFW, which involved a 3 hour delay in takeoff and a flight attendant with a kidney stone, I return home for the Thanksgiving holiday tired and relieved. I also returned to AGS to find the final Regular Season GPI posted on CSN. While I could easily have let this pass until tomorrow, it won't be a full bracketology breakdown, and figured I might as well get everything out of the way now.
The one real danger in using the GPI as a Bracketology tool at this moment is it's reactive nature. Specifically, the human polls. There is a tendency amongst human pollsters to rank teams selected for the playoffs that they may not otherwise have had ranked, which distorts the final number for certain teams and can affect their overall ranking. I don't have the time or inclination to figure out exactly how much this occurs, but it's something worth considering.
Disclaimers out of the way, let's consider the brackets!
Auto-Bids
Straightforward, all ties broken, even if by coin flip
Montana, Massachusetts, Northern Iowa, Delaware State, Eastern Kentucky, Fordham, Wofford, McNeese State
At-larges
Enter the 8+1
1-Southern Illinois
2-Appalachian State
3-Richmond
4-James Madison
5-Delaware
6-New Hampshire
7-Villanova
8-Eastern Washington
+1-Eastern Illinois
EIU comes in as the #1. I'd like to be able to say both UNH and 'Nova miss out, as I've been adament about the CAA getting no more than 4, if at all possible. Further conclusive proof that I am indeed not on the Committee, as the CAA picked up a 5th birth. Were I to make a change, it would be taking 'Nova over UNH given the Philly Wildcats' better conference record. Once again, I clearly do not make the decisions, and UNH gets the nod
Seeds
1-Northern Iowa
2-McNeese State
3-Montana
4-Southern Illinois
Just as I had them for the last week. If I were only guessing, I'd say the Pokes' FBS victory was the key tiebreaker. Didn't listen to a lot of the extensive selection show coverage, so if this was addressed, feel free to add on
Matchups and Home Games
Keeping the format from last week, the field will be constructed by matching with geography, then awarding home games based on bids.
First, the seeds
SIU-EIU was the most obvious choice here, and MSU-EWU made too much sense as the committee loves Big Sky-Southland matchups. Now, UNH is clearly not close to UNI, but not many teams are, and I'm guessing the committee simply reserved the last at-large team as the visitors to the UNI Dome. Wofford as Montana's visitor was the one that confused me a bit here. SoCon autobid to Big Sky autobid is a very interesting decision. I understand that someone has to get sent to Montana, as there's no one really close.
As for the other games:
Delaware-Delaware State
Massachusetts-Fordham
These were easy, and made too much sense. The choices of the CAA sides as hosts also seemed most likely to me without revealing the actual bids.
Appalachian State-James Madison
This looks good both on paper and geographically. Not that the committee considers storylines when setting the matchups, but you can't deny this one's got some real cache to it. ASU was the obvious choice for the home team.
Richmond-Eastern Kentucky
This is the one that really surprised me. If UNH was already slotted to go to UNI, and ASU-JMU is a set matchup, then EKU seems the most likely team to be sent out to Montana, matching up Richmond with Wofford. UR doesn't surprise me as a host, although I'm guessing the NCAA had two very good bids to look at here.
Brackets
I have little issue with the structure of the brackets, that is the matching of seed games and non-seed games. Delaware as the lowest rated home team made sense to go with UNI. UMass getting matched with SIU suggests to me that the Minutemen were the committee's #5 team, which doesn't surprise me much, and creates the potential #4-#5 quarterfinal game. With that, I'd also guess the committee saw Richmond and UMass as very similar, and so matched the possibly #6 Spiders with #3 Montana. That leaves ASU-JMU to battle in #2 McNeese's bracket.
And so there it is. Again, I might quibble over the selection of UNH over Villanova, and I'd take a real issue with Wofford going west vs. EKU. All that being said, it actually looks like the Committee did a good job in putting this together. Disagree if you will, but be sure to provide evidence in the process.
My posting during the remainder of the week may be light, as I now have the standard familial duties to uphold, being home for Thanksgiving and all. It appears the Bracketology was enjoyed by at least a few of you, and if nothing else seems to have sparked a few lively discussions in these last few weeks. I intend to return again next year, hopefully stronger still, and perhaps an earlier start (by a week). Thanks to all for your support, criticism and comments xpeacex
Good luck to the 16 deserving playoff participants xthumbsupx
and a Happy Thanksgiving to all of AGS :)
The one real danger in using the GPI as a Bracketology tool at this moment is it's reactive nature. Specifically, the human polls. There is a tendency amongst human pollsters to rank teams selected for the playoffs that they may not otherwise have had ranked, which distorts the final number for certain teams and can affect their overall ranking. I don't have the time or inclination to figure out exactly how much this occurs, but it's something worth considering.
Disclaimers out of the way, let's consider the brackets!
Auto-Bids
Straightforward, all ties broken, even if by coin flip
Montana, Massachusetts, Northern Iowa, Delaware State, Eastern Kentucky, Fordham, Wofford, McNeese State
At-larges
Enter the 8+1
1-Southern Illinois
2-Appalachian State
3-Richmond
4-James Madison
5-Delaware
6-New Hampshire
7-Villanova
8-Eastern Washington
+1-Eastern Illinois
EIU comes in as the #1. I'd like to be able to say both UNH and 'Nova miss out, as I've been adament about the CAA getting no more than 4, if at all possible. Further conclusive proof that I am indeed not on the Committee, as the CAA picked up a 5th birth. Were I to make a change, it would be taking 'Nova over UNH given the Philly Wildcats' better conference record. Once again, I clearly do not make the decisions, and UNH gets the nod
Seeds
1-Northern Iowa
2-McNeese State
3-Montana
4-Southern Illinois
Just as I had them for the last week. If I were only guessing, I'd say the Pokes' FBS victory was the key tiebreaker. Didn't listen to a lot of the extensive selection show coverage, so if this was addressed, feel free to add on
Matchups and Home Games
Keeping the format from last week, the field will be constructed by matching with geography, then awarding home games based on bids.
First, the seeds
SIU-EIU was the most obvious choice here, and MSU-EWU made too much sense as the committee loves Big Sky-Southland matchups. Now, UNH is clearly not close to UNI, but not many teams are, and I'm guessing the committee simply reserved the last at-large team as the visitors to the UNI Dome. Wofford as Montana's visitor was the one that confused me a bit here. SoCon autobid to Big Sky autobid is a very interesting decision. I understand that someone has to get sent to Montana, as there's no one really close.
As for the other games:
Delaware-Delaware State
Massachusetts-Fordham
These were easy, and made too much sense. The choices of the CAA sides as hosts also seemed most likely to me without revealing the actual bids.
Appalachian State-James Madison
This looks good both on paper and geographically. Not that the committee considers storylines when setting the matchups, but you can't deny this one's got some real cache to it. ASU was the obvious choice for the home team.
Richmond-Eastern Kentucky
This is the one that really surprised me. If UNH was already slotted to go to UNI, and ASU-JMU is a set matchup, then EKU seems the most likely team to be sent out to Montana, matching up Richmond with Wofford. UR doesn't surprise me as a host, although I'm guessing the NCAA had two very good bids to look at here.
Brackets
I have little issue with the structure of the brackets, that is the matching of seed games and non-seed games. Delaware as the lowest rated home team made sense to go with UNI. UMass getting matched with SIU suggests to me that the Minutemen were the committee's #5 team, which doesn't surprise me much, and creates the potential #4-#5 quarterfinal game. With that, I'd also guess the committee saw Richmond and UMass as very similar, and so matched the possibly #6 Spiders with #3 Montana. That leaves ASU-JMU to battle in #2 McNeese's bracket.
And so there it is. Again, I might quibble over the selection of UNH over Villanova, and I'd take a real issue with Wofford going west vs. EKU. All that being said, it actually looks like the Committee did a good job in putting this together. Disagree if you will, but be sure to provide evidence in the process.
My posting during the remainder of the week may be light, as I now have the standard familial duties to uphold, being home for Thanksgiving and all. It appears the Bracketology was enjoyed by at least a few of you, and if nothing else seems to have sparked a few lively discussions in these last few weeks. I intend to return again next year, hopefully stronger still, and perhaps an earlier start (by a week). Thanks to all for your support, criticism and comments xpeacex
Good luck to the 16 deserving playoff participants xthumbsupx
and a Happy Thanksgiving to all of AGS :)