Week 12 Playoff Prognostication

[Professor Chaos]

One week until Selection Sunday and there's still plenty up in the air in terms of teams competing for playoff spots and playoff positioning. The autobids and at-large locks are starting to roll in but that bubble is still looking tough as we hit the final week of the regular season - I think there's going to be some very upset teams who feel they were snubbed come next Sunday. I attempted to handicap everyone's odds based primarily on the Massey projections for them to win/lose their remaining game. You can see all of Massey's updated numbers at https://masseyratings.com/cf2022/fcs/ratings. The numbers in brackets behind each team is Massey's expected remaining wins and losses and the percentage in parenthesis behind each remaining game is Massey's percentage that each team wins that respective game.


Big Sky
The Big Sky has 3 locks in Sac St, Montana St, and Weber St. Either Sac St or Montana St will be the autobid and both are probably locks to be seeded - each has a chance to either impress or fall a bit though with tough final games. Weber St is a lock and could be seeded if they win to get to 9-2 but they might need a result or two to go their way elsewhere to secure that seed I think. The other 3 are going to get tricky - I think both Montana or UC Davis would lock themselves in with a win next week but Montana could make it in even with a loss although they'd probably need a bit of help. Some of that help they might need is Idaho dropping a game since if both Idaho and Montana finish at 7-4 Idaho has the head-to-head win and probably the edge to get that selection if there's only room for one of them. It's crazy to think that with one game to play the Big Sky could still finish with anywhere from 3-6 bids depending on how things shake out. For now I have them with 5 assuming Montana and Idaho win while UC Davis loses their respective finales.

Locks
Sac St 10-0 (7-0) [0.68/0.32] - UC Davis (68%)
Montana St 9-1 (7-0) [0.44/0.56] - Montana (44%)
Weber St 8-2 (6-2) [0.88/0.12] - @NAU (88%)

Work left to do
Montana 7-3 (4-3) [0.56/0.44] - @Montana St (56%)

In the hunt
Idaho 6-4 (5-2) [0.85/0.15] - @Idaho St (85%)
UC Davis 6-4 (5-2) [0.32/0.68] - @Sac St (32%)


CAA
The CAA is starting to make some sense finally. Richmond and Elon joined W&M as playoff locks. The autobid will either be Richmond (if they beat W&M next week), W&M, or UNH (the latter two depending on conference game point differential if they tie). UNH and Delaware should both be locked in if they win next week which they're both favored to do but Massey doesn't see either as overwhelming favorites. URI made things tough on themselves with their loss to UNH today - they'll be 6th in the CAA pecking order at best and I just don't see there being room for 6 CAA teams. I see the CAA getting to 5 bids if things go to plan next week but it could be 3 or 4 as well if UNH and/or Delaware drop their final game and the bubble is as unforgiving as it looks like it'll be.

Locks
William & Mary 9-1 (6-1) [0.43/0.57] - @Richmond (43%)
Richmond 8-2 (6-1) [0.57/0.43] - William & Mary (57%)
Elon 8-3 (6-2)

Work left to do
New Hampshire 7-3 (6-1) [0.59/0.41] @Maine (59%)
Delaware 7-3 (4-3) [0.57/0.43] - @Nova (57%)

In the hunt
Rhode Island 6-4 (4-3) [0.62/0.38] - Albany (62%)


MVFC
The MVFC playoff contenders continue to dwindle and it's looking more and more like 3 bids is the ceiling while 2 bids is still very much a possibility. SDSU is locked in as the autobid and should be a top 2 seed. NDSU joined them as a lock but needs to win next week to get a seed IMO. UND is in the uneviable position of needing a win @NDSU to lock themselves in and if they lose I think they're in for a sweat given how tough the bubble is shaping up to be and if UND is sweating at 7-4 YSU is in worse shape given their head-to-head loss to UND. I think the Penguins need a bubble implosion (and a win) next week to have a shot while UND just needs a bit of help from other teams on the bubble if they finish 7-4. I'm going to say the MVFC only gets 3 in but another Big Sky, CAA, and SOCON team could definitely leave a 7-4 UND feeling snubbed.

Locks
AUTO: SDSU 10-1 (8-0)
NDSU 8-2 (6-1) [0.76/0.24] - UND (76%)

Work left to do
UND 7-3 (5-2) [0.24/0.76] - @NDSU (24%)

In the hunt
YSU 6-4 (4-3) [0.44/0.56] - SIU (44%)


SOCON
The SOCON got spicy this week with Samford and Furman picking up huge wins. Samford has the autobid locked up and I think they're a win away from potentially a top 4 seed. Furman is practically a lock but I couldn't put them there yet since if they lose at home to 3-7 Wofford next week with a sub-D1 win I think 8-3 for them might get tricky if the bubble stays as tough as it's looking. Of the two with work left to do Chattanooga is in a much better spot as a win @WCU should lock them in. I think Mercer needs to take matters into their owns hands and beat Samford next week if they want to avoid another potential snub. 7-4 with an 0-3 record against the top other top SOCON teams is going to put them on shaky footing given the strength of the bubble. I'm seeing at least 3 bids for the SOCON with 4 still a possibility but if Samford beats Mercer next week, as Massey predicts, I think Mercer drops just barely onto the wrong side of the bubble.

Locks
AUTO: Samford 9-1 (7-0) [0.52/0.48] - Mercer (52%)

Should be in
Furman 8-2 (6-1) [0.88/0.12] - Wofford (88%)

Work left to do
Chattanooga 7-3 (5-2) [0.71/0.29] - @WCU (71%)
Mercer 7-3 (5-2) [0.48/0.52] - @Samford (48%)


OVC and Southland
The Southland is pretty simple - UIW is locked in and should be seeded if they win their finale while SLU is the autobid (if they win) or out (if they lose). The OVC is another story since if both SEMO and UTM win (and they're both massively favored) the OVC auto will be determined by a coin flip and if UTM wins that flip the OVC could be a 2 bid league. UTM's only shot is the autobid in my opinion. As crazy as it may sound Northwestern St could still win the Southland auto if they beat UIW and Nicholls beats SLU but the SLC is a 2 bid league in that scenario as well.

Locks
Incarnate Word 9-1 (4-1) [0.83/0.17] - @NWSU (83%)

Should be in
SEMO 8-2 (4-0) [0.92/0.08] - Murray St (92%)

Work left to do
SLU 7-3 (4-1) [0.72/0.28] - @Nicholls (72%)

In the hunt
UT Martin 6-4 (4-0) [0.85/0.15] - EIU (85%)


Others
There will be 3 autos (Holy Cross and from the ASUN/WAC and Big South) from teams in this group so that will thin the at-large candidates considerably. Florida A&M is a new addition this week but I think, unlike last year, the bubble is going to be too tough for the SWAC to swipe an at large especially with FAMU's 59-3 obliteration at the hands of Jackson St. Holy Cross is locked in as the Patriot League auto and will be seeded if they win their finale - everyone else listed is playing for their playoff lives. The Big South will be simple as the winner of NC A&T @ Gardner-Webb will be the auto and the loser will be done. Fordham would make it really tough to leave them out if they finish 9-2 (like they should) with a razor thin loss to Holy Cross but, as I've mentioned a few times, the bubble is looking to be reallly tough this year and their SOS and quality wins are severely lacking. The WAC/ASUN autobid scenarios are a mess - ACU will be the WAC's candidate for the auto while the ASUN's would be UCA if they win or APSU/EKU/UCA (depending on tie breakers) if UCA's loses. I can't find the most recent ASUN/WAC Power Rankings that would decide the auto but I'd think ACU would be sitting pretty good regardless if they finish 8-3 even with a sub-D1 win. I'm going to guess no one in this group makes the field other than the three autos.


Locks
AUTO: Holy Cross 10-0 (5-0) [0.89/0.11] - @Georgetown (89%)

In the hunt
Fordham 8-2 (4-1) [0.74/0.26] - Colgate (26%)
ACU 7-3 (4-0) [0.58/0.42] - SFA (58%)
Austin Peay 7-3 (3-2) [0.00/1.00] - @Alabama (0%)
NC A&T 7-3 (4-0) [0.36/0.64] - @Gardner-Webb (36%)
EKU 6-4 (2-2) [0.62/0.38] - KSU (62%)
UCA 5-5 (3-1) [0.51/0.49] - Jax St (51%)
Gardner Webb 5-5 (4-0) [0.64/0.36] - NC A&T (64%)
Florida A&M 8-2 (6-1) [0.74/0.26] - BCU(74%)



The Field

So there's 13 at-large available - this is where I see them landing if things go to plan based on Massey odds this last week (which of course they won't) - the lists includes the autos so there's one additional team for each conference on top of the at-larges:
Big Sky: 4 - Sac St (11-0), Montana St (9-2), Weber St (9-2), Montana (8-3), Idaho (7-4)
CAA: 4 - Richmond (9-2), William & Mary (9-2), UNH (8-3), Elon (8-3), Delaware (8-3)
MVFC: 2 - SDSU (10-1), NDSU (9-2), UND (7-4)
SOCON: 2 - Samford (10-1), Furman (9-2), Chattanooga (8-3)
Southland: 1 - UIW (10-1), SLU (8-3)

The other 6 autos:
OVC: SEMO (9-2)
Patriot: Holy Cross (11-0)
ASUN/WAC: ACU (8-3)
Big South: Gardner-Webb (6-5)
NEC: St Francis (9-2)
Pioneer: Davidson (8-3)

The seeds as I see them:
1. Sac St (11-0)
2. SDSU (10-1)
3. NDSU (9-2)
4. Samford (10-1)
5. UIW (10-1)
6. Holy Cross (11-0)
7. Montana St (9-2)
8. Richmond (9-2)
First two out of the seeds: Weber St (9-2), William & Mary (9-2)

Last 4 in: Elon (8-3), Delaware (8-3), Idaho (7-4), UND (7-4)
First 4 out: Mercer (7-4), Fordham (9-2), Rhode Island (7-4), Austin Peay (7-4)

Others on the outside looking in amongst the teams I've listed above: UC Davis (6-5), YSU (6-5), UT-Martin (7-4), EKU (7-4), UCA (6-5), NC A&T (7-4), FAMU (9-2)

The bubble looks super tough this year - seems like most any other year I can recall a team like a 7-4 Mercer or 9-2 Fordham would be in but I don't see it happening this year although there's still plenty that can happen this last week.

What do you think? Feel free to throw out your projection - it's kind of a fun exercise IMO.

[Professor Chaos]

And for the hell of it since it's only one week away I'll throw a projected bracket out there.

Elon @ Furman to #1 Sac St
Gardner-Webb @ Chattanooga to #8 Richmond
ACU @ Montana to #5 UIW
SEMO @ SLU to #4 Samford
UNH @ UND to #3 NDSU
St Francis @ Delaware to #6 Holy Cross
Idaho @ Weber St to #7 Montana St
Davidson @ William & Mary to #2 SDSU

[Gil Dobie]

With so many teams to chose from this year, I'm not sure a 7-4 makes the cut for an At-Large. I can see 9-2 teams FAMU and Fordham getting in. Head-to-Head with teams in the field was important last year when it came to the final picks and seeds. That cost JMU last year. Should be an interesting last weekend.

[kab]

Some ifs
when MT State wins how far does Montana fall
When UND wins where does ndsu land

never trust a committee behind closed doors when $ are figured in

[WrenFGun]

I broke it down slightly differently, but I think we're largely in agreement here.

UTM on the coin flip is a real stress moment for some of these bubbles as they are not an at-large contender otherwise and I can't believe the NCAA/OVC allowed this to happen with only 7 teams in the OVC.

--

ASUN/WAC [1]: Abilene Christian University [AB]
--This looks like a one-bid situation regardless after EKU lost last weekend, but a win by ACU over SFA in the finale should give them the birth.

BSC [3]: Sacramento State [AB], Montana State, Weber State
--Chaos in the BSC as UC Davis may have knocked Idaho out of the playoffs [best they can do is 7-4 with a win over Montana]. If UC Davis loses to Sacramento State [@sac] and Montana loses to Montana State [@msu, Montana's starting QB is on crutches], the BSC might be a three bid league. Both Montana AND UC-Davis are likely in if they win on Saturday, and Idaho is a consideration at 7-4 with the win over Montana, so this could vacillate anywhere between 3 and 5 wins but given a tough bubble, three looks most likely right now.

Big South[1]: NCAT/Gardner Webb will decide the AB. NCAT is a potentially at-large candidate at 8-3 but it's unnecessary to consider it because to get to 8-3, they'll have won the Big South. Gardner Webb is not going to gain at-large consideration at 5-6 if they lose, nor will NCAT at 7-4.

CAA[3]: Richmond [AB], William & Mary, Elon
Richmond, W&M and Elon are all locks. UNH should beat Maine in the finale to give them a share of the CAA title. I'm less confident in Delaware going to Villanova and winning given how poorly they've played there, but it's certainly on the table.

MVFC[2]: SDSU[AB], NDSU
A lot of things happened in the MVFC this weekend. NDSU put the nail in SIU's chances, and Missouri State helped the bubble quite a bit by beating YSU 25-22. SDSU also ended ISU-r's season with a win there. There is really only one at-large candidate beyond these two now which I'll get to below [North Dakota].

NEC[1]: St. Francis[AB]

OVC[1]: SEMO
The OVC is an absolute ****show and I don't even know how the hell this happened. There are 7 teams in the OVC, and yet UT-Martin [should finish 7-4] doesn't play SEMO. That means a coin flip will decide the OVC. SEMO is likely 9-2 with good non-conference showings [and decent wins over SIU and Central Arkansas] and I think they're in either way.

Patriot[1]: Holy Cross[AB]
The entire bubble should be rooting for Colgate to beat Fordham in the finale.

Pioneer[1]: Dayton and Davidson play in the finale to decide the AB.

SOCON[2]: Samford[AB], Furman
Here's the other conference that saw some upheaval this weekend. Furman pounded Mercer, which means Mercer must travel to FCS undefeated Samford in the finale and win to make the playoffs. People aren't really talking about it, but Chattanooga has a difficultish game against now 5-5 Western Carolina on the road in a rivalry game to clinch a spot. IMO, Chattanooga loss and they're out, having lost 3 of 4 with their only win over the Citadel in a tight one.

Southland[1]: UIW
UIW is in regardless, but like Chattanooga, I think teams are jumping the gun on SELA. They will win the AB with a win over Nicholls, but it's @ Nicholls on a Thursday night, and I have personally watched them blow that game in the past.

--

For me, that is 17 bids accounted for, with an added note that UTM has a 50% chance of making the playoffs and stealing the autobid by virtue of winning a coin flip. For the sake of this exercise, I will assume UTM wins the coin flip and takes the 18th spot.

For the final 6 spots, lets look at teams LIKELY to win and in:

UNH[19] @ Maine -- It's a rivalry game, but Maine is 2-7. UNH should win this game.
Chattanooga [20] @ WCU -- Western Carolina is at home and 5-5, but Chattanooga should win this game.
SELA [21] @ Nicholls State -- SELA is certainly favored to win this game, but Nicholls is a decent team and has only one head scratching loss this year.
Delaware [22] @ Villanova -- Should Delaware be favored to win this game? Probably. Have they choked it away time and time again? Yes.

Not favored to win, but would be close to a lock if they win:

Mercer @ Samford -- Mercer has no good wins this season, but this would be a GREAT one.
UC Davis @ Sac State -- UC Davis has the toughest schedule in FCS. If they get to 7 DI wins, they're in, and depending on madness, could be a real candidate at 6 DI wins.
Montana @ Montana State -- Cole Johnson is on crutches for Montana. It's a must have.
North Dakota @ NDSU -- North Dakota wins this game and they're a lock at 8 DI wins.

--

If none of those upsets happen, we're looking at two spots remaining for bids (three if UTM loses coin flip). Here are how I'd consider the teams based on likely outcome:

1. North Dakota [7 DI wins, beat Northern Iowa, Youngstown State and potential playoff team Abilene Christian]
2. Fordham [9 DI wins, near FBS upset over a very good Ohio team, nearly beat undefeated Holy Cross]
3. Idaho [7 DI wins, two FBS losses, win over Montana, close one to Sac State]
4. Austin Peay [7 DI wins, two FBS losses, beat EKU]
5. Eastern Kentucky [7 DI wins, beat SEMO and an FBS team, lost to Austin Peay]
6. FAMU [9 DI wins, none of them good]

The real question here is where the "likely winners" slot in if they lose [so UNH, Chattanooga, Delaware and SELA]. SELA would have 7 DI wins and a great win over UIW, UNH would have two good wins over Rhode Island and Elon and two questionable losses to Maine and NCCU, but would finish two wins ahead of Delaware in the CAA if they also lost. I think Delaware and Chattanooga are both LOSE and OUT situations given they'd close their seasons 1-3.

[Professor Chaos]

With so many teams to chose from this year, I'm not sure a 7-4 makes the cut for an At-Large. I can see 9-2 teams FAMU and Fordham getting in. Head-to-Head with teams in the field was important last year when it came to the final picks and seeds. That cost JMU last year. Should be an interesting last weekend.
FAMU's strength of schedule is historically bad - 106th out of 130 according to Massey (102nd out of 111 if you exclude the Pioneer and NEC teams). Their highest ranked opponent they've beaten by Massey is #73 Souther - for comparison they're ranked just above 2-8 Maine from the CAA. I don't think FAMU has a shot this... I didn't think they had a shot last year either though but this I'm even more skeptical since they at least had a close 7-6 loss to Jackson St last year not the 56 point blowout against JSU this year.

Fordham is a little better but they have the same problem - 75th ranked SOS with their best wins being over #59 Monmouth and #64 Albany. But those are both close wins so if you're going to give them credit for a close loss to Holy Cross you should ding them for close wins against Monmouth and Albany.

The committee is going to piss off someone but they've got to make the choice of shiny W/L and ugly SOS vs an uglier W/L record but a better SOS. We'll see but I think they'll give the nod to the SOS in the case of 7-4 teams from the Big Sky, CAA, and MVFC over the 9-2 teams from the Patriot League and SWAC.

[MR. CHICKEN]

Some ifs
when MT State wins how far does Montana fall
When UND wins where does ndsu land

never trust a committee behind closed doors when $ are figured in


IFIN' IT'S UH CAL POLY SCORE.......OFFAH DUH MAP........BRAWK!

ADVANTAGE.....DELAWARE.............AWK$

[Professor Chaos]

If none of those upsets happen, we're looking at two spots remaining for bids (three if UTM loses coin flip). Here are how I'd consider the teams based on likely outcome:

1. North Dakota [7 DI wins, beat Northern Iowa, Youngstown State and potential playoff team Abilene Christian]
2. Fordham [9 DI wins, near FBS upset over a very good Ohio team, nearly beat undefeated Holy Cross]
3. Idaho [7 DI wins, two FBS losses, win over Montana, close one to Sac State]
4. Austin Peay [7 DI wins, two FBS losses, beat EKU]
5. Eastern Kentucky [7 DI wins, beat SEMO and an FBS team, lost to Austin Peay]
6. FAMU [9 DI wins, none of them good]

The real question here is where the "likely winners" slot in if they lose [so UNH, Chattanooga, Delaware and SELA]. SELA would have 7 DI wins and a great win over UIW, UNH would have two good wins over Rhode Island and Elon and two questionable losses to Maine and NCCU, but would finish two wins ahead of Delaware in the CAA if they also lost. I think Delaware and Chattanooga are both LOSE and OUT situations given they'd close their seasons 1-3.
Good stuff... I like the way you laid it out at the end here in terms of teams vying for those last couple spots. I do think Mercer and Montana at 7-4 would be in that conversation as well sliding somewhere above teams like APSU, EKU, and FAMU in the list above.

I'd agree on Delaware most likely being out with a loss @Nova. Chattanooga I'm not so sure about but I'm guessing they'd need quite a bit of help to stay in at 7-4 (for starters Samford beating Mercer so Chatty wouldn't drop to #4 in the SOCON pecking order). UNH is probably similar to Chatty - could still make it with a loss but would need some help.

[Professor Chaos]

Some ifs
when MT State wins how far does Montana fall
When UND wins where does ndsu land

never trust a committee behind closed doors when $ are figured in
I think Montana would likely drop out of the field altogether and NDSU would likely drop out of the seeds but it would depend on what else happened

I think this notion that the committee is always trying to maximize dollars made in the tournament is a shortsighted one. There are examples either way (like when they matched up JMU with Delaware in the 2018 first round when both would've drawn big crowds relative to the norm on Thanksgiving weekend). The selection committee isn't the NCAA they're just a group of ADs from schools in the autobid conferences - they are forced to regionalize the first 2 rounds and the loophole that regular season rematches are only prohibited if it's both (not just one) team's first playoff game really leads to frustrating regionalization IMO but it is what it is and we don't sell enough tickets to these games collectively for it to change anytime soon.

[WrenFGun]

Good stuff... I like the way you laid it out at the end here in terms of teams vying for those last couple spots. I do think Mercer and Montana at 7-4 would be in that conversation as well sliding somewhere above teams like APSU, EKU, and FAMU in the list above.

I'd agree on Delaware most likely being out with a loss @Nova. Chattanooga I'm not so sure about but I'm guessing they'd need quite a bit of help to stay in at 7-4 (for starters Samford beating Mercer so Chatty wouldn't drop to #4 in the SOCON pecking order). UNH is probably similar to Chatty - could still make it with a loss but would need some help.

I think the problem with the committee for UNH is that if Delaware gets to 8-3, 5-3 in the CAA, they're still behind UNH, whether they finish 7-4, 6-2 or 8-3, 7-1. I don't know if it entirely matters one way or the other for the committee, but I think it plays a role. In both cases, I think UNH stands a much better chance at 7-4 if Delaware is also 7-4. Same with Chattanooga. If the committee thinks the SOCON is a three bid league regardless, then Chattanooga needs to be sure that Mercer loses to Furman.

The real problem with Montana at 7-4 is Idaho. If they're 7-4 they'll have to be the SECOND 7-4 BSC team picked given that Idaho went to Montana and pounded them. You're basically requiring the BSC to be a 5 bid league with two 7-4 teams and a really soft bubble for Montana to get in at 7-4.

I feel good about North Dakota's 7-4 chances because they're clearly the third team from the MVFC, a notoriously good and deep conference.

I don't see any reason for Mercer to be in the conversation at 7-4. They're the most overrated team in the country and their resume literally isn't even as good as Gardner Webb's. That all changes at 8-3 with a win over Samford [basically puts them in SELA territory, where they are riding the Incarnate Word win].

[Professor Chaos]

I think the problem with the committee for UNH is that if Delaware gets to 8-3, 5-3 in the CAA, they're still behind UNH, whether they finish 7-4, 6-2 or 8-3, 7-1. I don't know if it entirely matters one way or the other for the committee, but I think it plays a role. In both cases, I think UNH stands a much better chance at 7-4 if Delaware is also 7-4. Same with Chattanooga. If the committee thinks the SOCON is a three bid league regardless, then Chattanooga needs to be sure that Mercer loses to Furman.

The real problem with Montana at 7-4 is Idaho. If they're 7-4 they'll have to be the SECOND 7-4 BSC team picked given that Idaho went to Montana and pounded them. You're basically requiring the BSC to be a 5 bid league with two 7-4 teams and a really soft bubble for Montana to get in at 7-4.

I feel good about North Dakota's 7-4 chances because they're clearly the third team from the MVFC, a notoriously good and deep conference.

I don't see any reason for Mercer to be in the conversation at 7-4. They're the most overrated team in the country and their resume literally isn't even as good as Gardner Webb's. That all changes at 8-3 with a win over Samford [basically puts them in SELA territory, where they are riding the Incarnate Word win].
Agreed on all points except Mercer's standing at 7-4. To me they'd be about a carbon copy of Montana at 7-4 - all respectable losses but no good wins although they pounded pretty much everyone else they played including a 31 point win @Gardner-Webb for Mercer.

[WrenFGun]

Agreed on all points except Mercer's standing at 7-4. To me they'd be about a carbon copy of Montana at 7-4 - all respectable losses but no good wins although they pounded pretty much everyone else they played including a 31 point win @Gardner-Webb for Mercer.

A fair point. If GW wins the Big South, may give them a decent bit at 7-4. Still think they're behind quite a few other options, though. Like, realistically, the CAA isn't getting 6 teams in, but a 7 win Rhode Island team with a win over 8-3 Elon is probably a better resume than Mercer, no? They lost by 1 point to William and Mary, 3 points to UNH [both on the road] and beat Elon.

[NY Crusader 2010]

FAMU's strength of schedule is historically bad - 106th out of 130 according to Massey (102nd out of 111 if you exclude the Pioneer and NEC teams). Their highest ranked opponent they've beaten by Massey is #73 Souther - for comparison they're ranked just above 2-8 Maine from the CAA. I don't think FAMU has a shot this... I didn't think they had a shot last year either though but this I'm even more skeptical since they at least had a close 7-6 loss to Jackson St last year not the 56 point blowout against JSU this year.

Fordham is a little better but they have the same problem - 75th ranked SOS with their best wins being over #59 Monmouth and #64 Albany. But those are both close wins so if you're going to give them credit for a close loss to Holy Cross you should ding them for close wins against Monmouth and Albany.

The committee is going to piss off someone but they've got to make the choice of shiny W/L and ugly SOS vs an uglier W/L record but a better SOS. We'll see but I think they'll give the nod to the SOS in the case of 7-4 teams from the Big Sky, CAA, and MVFC over the 9-2 teams from the Patriot League and SWAC.

You also have to give them credit for the close loss against MAC East Champ Ohio.

[WrenFGun]

IMO the real big problem right now with the bubble is that there are conferences where everyone doesn't play everyone. The CAA, Big Sky and MVFC are all too big.

It is inexplicable to me what happened in the OVC, though. How can you have 7 conference members and not play everyone?

[NY Crusader 2010]

I think the problem with the committee for UNH is that if Delaware gets to 8-3, 5-3 in the CAA, they're still behind UNH, whether they finish 7-4, 6-2 or 8-3, 7-1. I don't know if it entirely matters one way or the other for the committee, but I think it plays a role. In both cases, I think UNH stands a much better chance at 7-4 if Delaware is also 7-4. Same with Chattanooga. If the committee thinks the SOCON is a three bid league regardless, then Chattanooga needs to be sure that Mercer loses to Furman.

The real problem with Montana at 7-4 is Idaho. If they're 7-4 they'll have to be the SECOND 7-4 BSC team picked given that Idaho went to Montana and pounded them. You're basically requiring the BSC to be a 5 bid league with two 7-4 teams and a really soft bubble for Montana to get in at 7-4.

I feel good about North Dakota's 7-4 chances because they're clearly the third team from the MVFC, a notoriously good and deep conference.

I don't see any reason for Mercer to be in the conversation at 7-4. They're the most overrated team in the country and their resume literally isn't even as good as Gardner Webb's. That all changes at 8-3 with a win over Samford [basically puts them in SELA territory, where they are riding the Incarnate Word win].

But Delaware and UNH didn't play the same schedule in conference, which will be a factor in at-large decision-making. UNH got to avoid William & Mary. Delaware also has an FBS win, while UNH was blown out in their FBS game. Of course, the one thing UNH does have over Delaware -- 'Cats beat Elon while the Hens didn't.

IMO, it's crystal clear for UNH -- beat Maine to go 8-3 and you're in. 7-4 and you're out as Maine would be a bad loss. I can't justify 7-4 UNH over a hypothetical 7-4 Delaware or 9-2 Fordham, sorry.

[Professor Chaos]

IMO the real big problem right now with the bubble is that there are conferences where everyone doesn't play everyone. The CAA, Big Sky and MVFC are all too big.

It is inexplicable to me what happened in the OVC, though. How can you have 7 conference members and not play everyone?
As I understand it Lindenwood was added to the OVC schedule late after all the other OVC schools had already scheduled 6 OOC games this season so instead of making them cancel/move one of those OOC games and play a full round robin they just added a game with Lindenwood in place of an existing conference game for all the other OVC teams (except Tennessee St) instead.

Why they chose to get rid of the UTM/SEMO matchup when they were picked #1 and #2 in the preseason is anyone's guess.

[WrenFGun]

But Delaware and UNH didn't play the same schedule in conference, which will be a factor in at-large decision-making. UNH got to avoid William & Mary. Delaware also has an FBS win, while UNH was blown out in their FBS game. Of course, the one thing UNH does have over Delaware -- 'Cats beat Elon while the Hens didn't.

IMO, it's crystal clear for UNH -- beat Maine to go 8-3 and you're in. 7-4 and you're out as Maine would be a bad loss. I can't justify 7-4 UNH over a hypothetical 7-4 Delaware or 9-2 Fordham, sorry.

I think if you look at the teams now, that Elon game is a real issue. We're talking about a 45 point spread between the two teams. Richmond beat UNH at home by 6 in a game where UNH had the ball three times in the final 8 minutes to storm back and win while Richmond went to UD and beat them. I don't think it's as clear cut as you make it when you consider UD would be losers of 3 of 4 to end the season.

Fordham has 0 quality wins. When you're giving credit to Fordham for almost beating Ohio, are you doing the same for the CAA, BSC and MVFC? That's where I think that argument sucks. It only comes into play for Fordham because there's no good wins to start the argument with. You're also ignoring that Fordham barely beat two bottom feeders in the CAA.

[lucchesicourt]

Do close losses count as demonstrating the quality of the team? If I so, for UC Davis no one has mentioned CLOSE losses to ranked teams in the top 6 SDSU by 2 points and by 5 to Weber St. Saying they had the strongest opponents doesn't say anything about close losses. They could be 20 point losses to the strongest teams, but they are not.

[WrenFGun]

Do close losses count as demonstrating the quality of the team? If I so, for UC Davis no one has mentioned CLOSE losses to ranked teams in the top 6 SDSU by 2 points and by 5 to Weber St. Saying they had the strongest opponents doesn't say anything about close losses. They could be 20 point losses to the strongest teams, but they are not.

UC Davis will be the best 6 win team in the country not dancing. They will be the best 7 win team in the country, but if they're at 7, they'll be dancing. No disagreement here. That schedule was preposterous.

[ElonFirefighter]

But Delaware and UNH didn't play the same schedule in conference, which will be a factor in at-large decision-making. UNH got to avoid William & Mary. Delaware also has an FBS win, while UNH was blown out in their FBS game. Of course, the one thing UNH does have over Delaware -- 'Cats beat Elon while the Hens didn't.

IMO, it's crystal clear for UNH -- beat Maine to go 8-3 and you're in. 7-4 and you're out as Maine would be a bad loss. I can't justify 7-4 UNH over a hypothetical 7-4 Delaware or 9-2 Fordham, sorry.

Not sure how deep they look at this but UNH had Elon at home while Delaware had to travel to Elon. Elon was dominate and undefeated at home. So while one team did beat us I don't know if you can just compare the games apples to apples

[lucchesicourt]

So, you are implying 7-4 teams in the Big Sky would be in? I think Montana played the softest schedule. So to avoid having 6 teams from the Big Sky who would you eliminate of the three 7-4 teams?

[WrenFGun]

So, you are implying 7-4 teams in the Big Sky would be in? I think Montana played the softest schedule. So to avoid having 6 teams from the Big Sky who would you eliminate of the three 7-4 teams?

What I am saying is that if UC Davis gets to 7-4, they're in. It doesn't really matter what conference they're in.

If Montana finishes the season 7-4, I don't see any realistic chance they get in unless the bubble softens tremendously. They would be behind a 7-4 Idaho team that beat them handily in that instance.

Given UC Davis SOS, it literally doesn't matter what conference they get in. There's no way you can keep them out after beating Sac State.

[WrenFGun]

So, you are implying 7-4 teams in the Big Sky would be in? I think Montana played the softest schedule. So to avoid having 6 teams from the Big Sky who would you eliminate of the three 7-4 teams?

To elaborate, my opinion is such that it depends A. how soft the bubble is and B. how the committee evaluates 7-4 teams vs. 9-2 teams like FAMU and Fordham. My current projection would have North Dakota [7-4] and Fordham [9-2] as the last two teams in, with Idaho [7-4], Austin Peay [7-4] and Eastern Kentucky [7-4] as the first three teams out. That assumes UTM wins the 50/50 coinflip to get in for the OVC, and that teams with winnable games [UNH, Delaware, SELA and Chattanooga] get to 8-3. More spots open up if one of those 4 teams lose or if UTM loses the coin flip. More spots get taken away if Mercer beats Samford, Montana beats Montana State or UC Davis upends Sac State.

[caribbeanhen]

A 7-4 Delaware is out and rightfully so

Fordham in over a broke back Montana team after they get busted up in the brawl

Fordham has a brand name All American QB ... Star power counts and besides, if Holy Cross is really a top 10 team than Fordham should be in

Who will be the first to make the never ending pleas for always day late dollar short Rhode Island?

Richmond any good? Top 10 good I say

[Gil Dobie]

The committee said last year, that some of the picks came down to record against teams in the field, and JMU was 0-1, I believe, giving JMU a 3 seed instead of a 1 or 2 seed.

[JacksFan40]

Don’t know if anyone mentioned this but Dayton is in the lead for the PFL auto-bid, not Davidson. Flyers are 6-1 in the PFL while Davidson fell to 5-2 after the loss to San Diego. They meet this coming week so that should determine who will get it. Butler is 5-2 in the PFL and will likely lose to St. Thomas this week so they’ll be out. Dayton @ Davidson will be the game to determine the PFL auto-bid, so keep an eye on that.

[JacksFan40]

A 7-4 Delaware is out and rightfully so

Fordham in over a broke back Montana team after they get busted up in the brawl

Fordham has a brand name All American QB ... Star power counts and besides, if Holy Cross is really a top 10 team than Fordham should be in

Who will be the first to make the never ending pleas for always day late dollar short Rhode Island?

Richmond any good? Top 10 good I say
Plus Fordham’s only other loss was a thriller against the top team in the MAC. They deserve to be in.

[Chalupa Batman]

Don’t know if anyone mentioned this but Dayton is in the lead for the PFL auto-bid, not Davidson. Flyers are 6-1 in the PFL while Davidson fell to 5-2 after the loss to San Diego. They meet this coming week so that should determine who will get it. Butler is 5-2 in the PFL and will likely lose to St. Thomas this week so they’ll be out. Dayton @ Davidson will be the game to determine the PFL auto-bid, so keep an eye on that.

Even if Butler wins next week I believe the winner of the Davidson/Dayton game would get the auto. If Davidson and Butler win, Davidson, Dayton and Butler would all have 2 conference losses but Davidson would have beaten both of the other two. If Dayton wins they have the best conference record outside of St. Thomas so then they’d get it obviously.

[MSUBobcat]

Do close losses count as demonstrating the quality of the team? If I so, for UC Davis no one has mentioned CLOSE losses to ranked teams in the top 6 SDSU by 2 points and by 5 to Weber St. Saying they had the strongest opponents doesn't say anything about close losses. They could be 20 point losses to the strongest teams, but they are not.

Watching the Idaho game last night, I said I'm glad we got Davis when we did. They seemed a bit demoralized after another close loss. They are firing on all cylinders now and that outcome would probably at a minimum be another close loss to a top 6 team.

[Gil Dobie]

If NCAT wins, and NDSU wins, they are1-1 against the field. If Mercer and Chatty win, Furman is 2-1 against the field and a seed, if they win.

[F'N Hawks]

Not sure how a 7-4 Montana team could possibly get in the playoffs with that resume. But weirder things have happened

[mvfcfan]

The only way I'm okay with FAMU making it, is if they get to play the Pioneer League auto bid, only because I'd like to see how that would go down.

If FAMU plays anyone else they'll lose by a lot like they did last season. I also see no reason rewarding someone from a conference that refuses to send their best team to the playoffs. If they view the Playoffs as the FCS version of the NIT, then they really should not get an invite, and I don't care what all of the SWAC fanboys say.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

SDSU
NDSU
UND

UND is in if they win or lose IMO.

YSU might get in at 7-4 but will need some help.

[BeamMeUp]

SDSU
NDSU
UND

UND is in if they win or lose IMO.

YSU might get in at 7-4 but will need some help.

Need a perfect storm to the tune of Trump's electoral college win over Hillary in 2016 for that to happen for YSU lol!

[ElCid]

But Delaware and UNH didn't play the same schedule in conference, which will be a factor in at-large decision-making. UNH got to avoid William & Mary. Delaware also has an FBS win, while UNH was blown out in their FBS game. Of course, the one thing UNH does have over Delaware -- 'Cats beat Elon while the Hens didn't.

IMO, it's crystal clear for UNH -- beat Maine to go 8-3 and you're in. 7-4 and you're out as Maine would be a bad loss. I can't justify 7-4 UNH over a hypothetical 7-4 Delaware or 9-2 Fordham, sorry.

Don't forget that UNH got taken to the woodshed by NC Central. So they got a bad, at least medium bad, loss. Central ain't horrible, but they ain't real good either.

[WrenFGun]

Don't forget that UNH got taken to the woodshed by NC Central. So they got a bad, at least medium bad, loss. Central ain't horrible, but they ain't real good either.

Doubt the committee will look too poorly on a loss to the MEAC champ, not that I think it was a good loss by any stretch.

[NY Crusader 2010]

Doubt the committee will look too poorly on a loss to the MEAC champ, not that I think it was a good loss by any stretch.

NC Central definitely not a "bad loss" in my book, given that they're an FCS conference champ. Don't think the committee will beat them up over it although not having that win in the coffers could hurt if you guys somehow don't take care of business against Maine. If you'd beaten Central, you could still lose to Maine and chances are be in at 8-3. Regardless, UNH controls its own destiny against a bottom tier CAA team this coming Saturday.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

NC Central definitely not a "bad loss" in my book, given that they're an FCS conference champ. Don't think the committee will beat them up over it although not having that win in the coffers could hurt if you guys somehow don't take care of business against Maine. If you'd beaten Central, you could still lose to Maine and chances are be in at 8-3. Regardless, UNH controls its own destiny against a bottom tier CAA team this coming Saturday.

It is a loss to a fringe Top 25 team that won their league, aka definitely not a bad loss. In fact, the complete opposite. If this metric was used to determine a 1 or 2 seed maybe I could see the scrutiny. However, when it comes to at-large candidates, this is not even close to the worst wart. Hell, I would use it as leverage...lol

[ElCid]

Doubt the committee will look too poorly on a loss to the MEAC champ, not that I think it was a good loss by any stretch.

Well, as I said, it's only a semi bad loss. But I guess I'm just using a bit of comparison to what was mentioned in another thread. That being Mercer's thrashing of a FCS Conf champ as not being that worthy. Again, as opposed to actually being beaten by a conf champ. That assumes G-W takes care of business next week, which I think they will. Just as a data point, NC Central is 55 in Massey and G-W is 42. Not definitive, but probably reasonable. I'm still not sure how UNH screwed the pooch at home in that game.

[NY Crusader 2010]

Well, as I said, it's only a semi bad loss. But I guess I'm just using a bit of comparison to what was mentioned in another thread. That being Mercer's thrashing of a FCS Conf champ as not being that worthy. Again, as opposed to actually being beaten by a conf champ. That assumes G-W takes care of business next week, which I think they will. Just as a data point, NC Central is 55 in Massey and G-W is 42. Not definitive, but probably reasonable. I'm still not sure how UNH screwed the pooch at home in that game.

I think UNH has just gradually improved as the year went on. Remember they barely squeaked by Monmouth to open the season. A game most Wildcat faithful agree they were lucky to win. Not to mention they got boat-raced by a bad MAC team early in the season as well.

[caribbeanhen]

Don't forget that UNH got taken to the woodshed by NC Central. So they got a bad, at least medium bad, loss. Central ain't horrible, but they ain't real good either.

Agree, back in the day the MEAC champ beating a upper half CAA team would have been a major upset but I guess back in the day is gone

[ElCid]

Agree, back in the day the MEAC champ beating a upper half CAA team would have been a major upset but I guess back in the day is gone

Well, as I said, they ain't horrible. Probably a better description would be inconsistent. They beat A&T (ok), and NH (better), but got thumped by Campbell bad and lost to SCSU.

[lionsrking2]

We certainly don’t plan on losing to Nicholls but I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion we are out if we do. We would have 7 DI wins, with a win over a 10-1 UIW and dominant road win over a potentially 9-2 Jacksonville State who’s playing with 72 scholarships. Yes, it would mean a bad loss to Nicholls and a close loss to Commerce without our starting QB, but not many at-large candidates can say they have a win over a top 10-1 top 8 seed and a 9-2 transitioning FCS-to-FBS.

[WileECoyote06]

It is a loss to a fringe Top 25 team that won their league, aka definitely not a bad loss. In fact, the complete opposite. If this metric was used to determine a 1 or 2 seed maybe I could see the scrutiny. However, when it comes to at-large candidates, this is not even close to the worst wart. Hell, I would use it as leverage...lol

Thank you. I wish others would recognize this.

If not for SCSU screwing the pooch, NCCU would be in the conversation for an at-large. Despite the ridiculous road loss at SCSU (two missed field goals and two recalled TDs); we have a road and a neutral win over two potential conferences champions. With a final win to finish 9-2; and perhaps an A&T Big South championship, we'd be in.

Massey has dinged us mainly due to playing VU-Lynchburg and WSSU.

Sidebar just to grind gears in here. . .FAMU is in the Top 40 of the Massey composite. xscanx

[ming01]

Latest Bracket based off how I think things end up. Read it and weep.

Seeds:
1 Sac State 11-0
2 SDSU 10-1
3 NDSU 9-2
4 Samford 10-1
5 Montana State 9-2
6 Richmond 9-2
7 Weber State 9-2
8 Holy Cross 11-0

Also thought about Furman.

Incarnate Word at ACU
@ 1 Sacramento State

St Francis at Delaware
@ 8 Holy Cross

Gardner Webb at Furman
@ 5 Montana State

UNH at William & Mary
@ 4 Samford

UND at Montana
@ 3 NDSU

Davidson at Elon
@ 6 Richmond

SELA at Idaho
@ 7 Weber State

SEMO at Chatty
@ 2 SDSU

[katss07]

Even if they win I don’t think Richmond is seeded. UIW will be, though.

[Chalupa Batman]

Even if they win I don’t think Richmond is seeded. UIW will be, though.

Richmond with only 1 FCS loss (on the road in double OT to 8 win playoff bound Elon) and wins over New Hampshire, Delaware, and William & Mary (likely all 3 playoff bound) to end the season would definitely be seeded.

[caribbeanhen]

Richmond with only 1 FCS loss (on the road in double OT to 8 win playoff bound Elon) and wins over New Hampshire, Delaware, and William & Mary (likely all 3 playoff bound) to end the season would definitely be seeded.

nope.. not even a top 25 team according to you a few weeks ago

[caribbeanhen]

Latest Bracket based off how I think things end up. Read it and weep.

Seeds:
1 Sac State 11-0
2 SDSU 10-1
3 NDSU 9-2
4 Samford 10-1
5 Montana State 9-2
6 Richmond 9-2
7 Weber State 9-2
8 Holy Cross 11-0

Also thought about Furman.

Incarnate Word at ACU
@ 1 Sacramento State

St Francis at Delaware
@ 8 Holy Cross

Gardner Webb at Furman
@ 5 Montana State

UNH at William & Mary
@ 4 Samford

UND at Montana
@ 3 NDSU

Davidson at Elon
@ 6 Richmond

SELA at Idaho
@ 7 Weber State

SEMO at Chatty
@ 2 SDSU

When FAMU gets selected who is getting bumped

[crusader11]

When FAMU gets selected who are the bumping

This board will lose its collective minds if an 8-win CAA, SoCon, Valley, or Sky team is left out in favor of FAMU whose best win would be (drumroll) 6-4 Southern.

[caribbeanhen]

This board will lose its collective minds if an 8-win CAA, SoCon, Valley, or Sky team is left out in favor of FAMU whose best win would be (drumroll) 6-4 Southern.

prepare yourself

[geaux_sioux]

When FAMU gets selected who are the bumping
UND obviously. The polls aren’t strong for us. It’ll be too easy.

[JacksFan40]

This board will lose its collective minds if an 8-win CAA, SoCon, Valley, or Sky team is left out in favor of FAMU whose best win would be (drumroll) 6-4 Southern.
I will be one of them if that happens, FAMU got trashed by a mid-tier SELA team last year, they aren't good.

[caribbeanhen]

UND obviously. The polls aren’t strong for us. It’ll be too easy.

You have to beat the Bison next week before you will even get the opportunity of being passed over

[geaux_sioux]

You have to beat the Bison next week before you will even get the opportunity of being passed over

7 wins and 2nd toughest schedule in the country should be a lock to get in.

[100%GRIZ]

Not sure how a 7-4 Montana team could possibly get in the playoffs with that resume. But weirder things have happened
My question to you is - will they allow the Griz QB to use crutches in the Brawl @ MSU? xeyebrowx

[caribbeanhen]

7 wins and 2nd toughest schedule in the country should be a lock to get in.

Lots of fans have locks but the committee holds all the keys

[Professor Chaos]

Merely for Ss & Gs this would be the AGS Poll consensus projected at-large field if the playoffs started this week:

1. Montana St (3)
2. NDSU (4)
3. UIW (5)
4. Furman (10)
5. Richmond (11)
6. Montana (12)
7. Elon (13)
8. Chattanooga (14)
9. UND (16)
10. Mercer (17)
11. UNH (19)
12. Idaho (20)
13. Delaware (21)

First 4 out:
1. UC Davis (23)
2. Fordham (24)
3. Rhode Island (25)
4. Austin Peay (27)

[ming01]

When FAMU gets selected who are the bumping

Montana if they lose. Idaho, if Montana wins.

[Chalupa Batman]

nope.. not even a top 25 team according to you a few weeks ago

I also said this to you at the time:


You may very well end up being right about them all along, we'll find out in the next three weeks. If they win the next three weeks they'll be shooting up my rankings very quickly.

That's why teams move around in the poll, as more games are played we have more evidence to better judge them.

[katss07]

Idaho should feel pretty safe if they take care of business against ISU, right? 7-2 v FCS with the H2H over Montana seems like a (near) lock for them. A Davis win would muddle things.

[Professor Chaos]

Idaho should feel pretty safe if they take care of business against ISU, right? 7-2 v FCS with the H2H over Montana seems like a (near) lock for them. A Davis win would muddle things.
UCD, Mercer, Montana, and UND are all teams they should be rooting against. I think they could handle one or two of those teams winning but if 3 or 4 of them do things might get sketchy. Delaware, UNH, and Chattanooga all need week 12 wins to get to 8 wins that aren't necessarily gimmes that could drop them out as well so that would be a factor.

Another thing they need to hope for is a UT-Martin loss... in the coin toss for the OVC autobid. That would knock somebody off the bubble since SEMO should be in regardless at 9-2.

[Professor Chaos]

I'm really not seeing it for FAMU this year - assuming the committee ignores last year's playoff result like they're supposed to the bubble is just so much tougher this year than it was last year. Last year the last few teams in (not counting FAMU) based on where they finished in AGS Poll consensus would've been 8-3 (with a sub-D1 win) SFA, 7-4 SIU (losers of 3 of their final 4 regular season games), and 6-5 UNI. I don't think any of those teams would be on right side of the at-large bubble this year. On top of all that FAMU had a 1 point loss to Jackson St as their only FCS loss last year whereas this year it was a 56 point destruction at the hands of JSU.

[NY Crusader 2010]

Thank you. I wish others would recognize this.

If not for SCSU screwing the pooch, NCCU would be in the conversation for an at-large. Despite the ridiculous road loss at SCSU (two missed field goals and two recalled TDs); we have a road and a neutral win over two potential conferences champions. With a final win to finish 9-2; and perhaps an A&T Big South championship, we'd be in.

Massey has dinged us mainly due to playing VU-Lynchburg and WSSU.

Sidebar just to grind gears in here. . .FAMU is in the Top 40 of the Massey composite. xscanx

Happy for you guys that SCSU did completely melt down because the Celebration Bowl will be 10x better with your offense going up against JSU vaunted defense that still has yet to yield 100 points for the season.

But, if SCSU had held serve and won their last three, you guys would be 1000x more worthy of an at-large spot than FAMU this year.

[taper]

I'm going to laugh for days if the Valley only gets in 2 but SDSU and NDSU meet in Frisco. Especially since that's very possible.

[SDFS]

Plus Fordham’s only other loss was a thriller against the top team in the MAC. They deserve to be in.

The marque wins for Fordham?

[Chalupa Batman]

Here's my crack at it. I strayed from PC's Massey projections and went with Montana State to win the Brawl and William & Mary to beat Richmond. Not projecting home/away teams in the first round just matchups.


Richmond (8-3)/St. Francis (9-2) @ #1 Sacramento State
Abilene Christian (8-3)/Weber State (9-2) @ #8 Incarnate Word (10-1)

Furman (9-2)/Gardner Webb (6-5) @ #4 William & Mary (10-1)
Elon (8-3)/Davidson (9-2) @ #5 Samford (10-1)

Idaho (7-4)/North Dakota (7-4) @ #2 South Dakota State
Fordham (9-2)/New Hampshire (8-3) @ #7 Holy Cross

Southeast Missouri State (9-2)/Chattanooga (8-3) @ #3 Montana State
Southeastern Louisiana (8-3)/Delaware @ #6 North Dakota State



My final 2 spots came down to 3 teams: North Dakota (7-4), Montana (7-4), and Fordham (9-2). I went with North Dakota over Montana because their SOS is slightly higher and all of the Grizzlies' wins have come against bad teams (4-6 Portland State is their best win), while North Dakota has at least beat some decent teams in Abilene Christian, Youngstown State, and Northern Iowa. I then went with Fordham partially based on the committee taking 9-win FAMU last year over 7 win teams Eastern Kentucky & Rhode Island, and partially because I just want to see the Rams in the playoffs this year.

Elon/Davidson going to William & Mary & Furman/Gardner-Webb going to Samford would be more likely due to regionalization but I wanted to break up potential conference rematches in the 2nd round and those trips are still fairly close, though they do creep outside the 400 mile bus trip limit.

[ElCid]

Here's my crack at it. I strayed from PC's Massey projections and went with Montana State to win the Brawl and William & Mary to beat Richmond. Not projecting home/away teams in the first round just matchups.


Richmond (8-3)/St. Francis (9-2) @ #1 Sacramento State
Abilene Christian (8-3)/Weber State (9-2) @ #8 Incarnate Word (10-1)

Furman (9-2)/Gardner Webb (6-5) @ #4 William & Mary (10-1)
Elon (8-3)/Davidson (9-2) @ #5 Samford (10-1)

Idaho (7-4)/North Dakota (7-4) @ #2 South Dakota State
Fordham (9-2)/New Hampshire (8-3) @ #7 Holy Cross

Southeast Missouri State (9-2)/Chattanooga (8-3) @ #3 Montana State
Southeastern Louisiana (8-3)/Delaware @ #6 North Dakota State



My final 2 spots came down to 3 teams: North Dakota (7-4), Montana (7-4), and Fordham (9-2). I went with North Dakota over Montana because their SOS is slightly higher and all of the Grizzlies' wins have come against bad teams (4-6 Portland State is their best win), while North Dakota has at least beat some decent teams in Abilene Christian, Youngstown State, and Northern Iowa. I then went with Fordham partially based on the committee taking 9-win FAMU last year over 7 win teams Eastern Kentucky & Rhode Island, and partially because I just want to see the Rams in the playoffs this year.

Elon/Davidson going to William & Mary & Furman/Gardner-Webb going to Samford would be more likely due to regionalization but I wanted to break up potential conference rematches in the 2nd round and those trips are still fairly close, though they do creep outside the 400 mile bus trip limit.

That's probably the best I've seen. Going to piss off Mercer fans. Hah! What happens if Delaware blows it this week? Montana and Mercer have very similar resumes....if they both lose this week that is.

[NY Crusader 2010]

The marque wins for Fordham?

Best wins for Fordham would have to be Monmouth and Albany, nothing "marquee" about either. Whether or not Fordham gets in or not will basically be a function of which gets punished more: 1) Fordham's lack of top-shelf wins or 2) other at-large candidates' "bad losses", which Fordham has none.

Kind of a pick your poison type of situation.

[Chalupa Batman]

That's probably the best I've seen. Going to piss off Mercer fans. Hah! What happens if Delaware blows it this week? Montana and Mercer have very similar resumes....if they both lose this week that is.

Thanks! I didn't do Last 4 In/First 4 Out, but Mercer would probably be right behind Montana in the First 4 Out. Delaware would still probably be in due to their Navy win and also beating fellow bubble team Rhode Island by 21, but they'd be far from a lock. At first glance I'd say right behind North Dakota and in front of Furman as the last bubble teams getting in.

[ElCid]

Best wins for Fordham would have to be Monmouth and Albany, nothing "marquee" about either. Whether or not Fordham gets in or not will basically be a function of which gets punished more: 1) Fordham's lack of top-shelf wins or 2) other at-large candidates' "bad losses", which Fordham has none.

Kind of a pick your poison type of situation.

Just for the sake of argument, since others have done it, how about good loses? Both of Fordham's loses are "good." 7 point loss to a good Ohio team and a one point OT loss to likely seeded HC.

[WrenFGun]

7 wins and 2nd toughest schedule in the country should be a lock to get in.

Where are the good wins? Best win is what? Youngstown State?

[WrenFGun]

Idaho should feel pretty safe if they take care of business against ISU, right? 7-2 v FCS with the H2H over Montana seems like a (near) lock for them. A Davis win would muddle things.

Idaho's best win is over a Montana team that may not reach 8 DI wins and will miss the playoffs. It's a nice season and not a bad resume, but there are a lot of better ones.

[ElCid]

Thanks! I didn't do Last 4 In/First 4 Out, but Mercer would probably be right behind Montana in the First 4 Out. Delaware would still probably be in due to their Navy win and also beating fellow bubble team Rhode Island by 21, but they'd be far from a lock. At first glance I'd say right behind North Dakota and in front of Furman as the last bubble teams getting in.

Not so sure about Delaware. Losing to ALL top three of CAA and .500 Nova? And all they'd have is RI and a fairly bad, currently 3-6, Navy team? Hard sell.

[WrenFGun]

Not so sure about Delaware. Losing to ALL top three of CAA and .500 Nova? And all they'd have is RI and a fairly bad, currently 3-6, Navy team? Hard sell.

Delaware is out with a loss. 4 CAA losses, 1-3 to finish the season? No shot.

- - - Updated - - -


Delaware is out with a loss. 4 CAA losses, 1-3 to finish the season? No shot.

Will also go on record as saying I think a 4th CAA team may sneak in if both UNH/Delaware lose given the general quality of the conference.

[Chalupa Batman]

Not so sure about Delaware. Losing to ALL top three of CAA and .500 Nova? And all they'd have is RI and a fairly bad, currently 3-6, Navy team? Hard sell.

I gave it a quick look to answer your question. The Hens would have the worst loss of Delaware/Montana/Mercer but the two best wins also. But I think you would be right, those 2 wins came at the beginning of the year and ending the year losing 3 of 4 (along with that 1 bad loss in the final game) would be enough to knock them out and move the Grizzlies in.

[WrenFGun]

I gave it a quick look to answer your question. The Hens would have the worst loss of Delaware/Montana/Mercer but the two best wins also. But I think you would be right, those 2 wins came at the beginning of the year and ending the year losing 3 of 4 (along with that 1 bad loss in the final game) would be enough to knock them out and move the Grizzlies in.

Grizzlies don't have an argument at 7 di wins. They're behind Idaho, and should also be behind Austin Peay and EKU.

[nodak651]

Where are the good wins? Best win is what? Youngstown State?
Yes, mvfc should have exclusivley played meac, patriot, and nec teams like the CAA. CAA shouldn't be rewarded for their weak scheduling when the mvfc and big sky play eachother every year.

[katss07]

Idaho's best win is over a Montana team that may not reach 8 DI wins and will miss the playoffs. It's a nice season and not a bad resume, but there are a lot of better ones.
Enough teams in front of Idaho should drop a game this weekend for them to sneak in. Davis/Mercer/Montana/UND/EKU certainly won’t all win. Delaware and UNH could be on the outside looking in, too. I like Idaho’s chances. Bubble isn’t great.

[WrenFGun]

Enough teams in front of Idaho should drop a game this weekend for them to sneak in. Davis/Mercer/Montana/UND/EKU certainly won’t all win. Delaware and UNH could be on the outside looking in, too. I like Idaho’s chances. Bubble isn’t great.

To be clear, if all five of those teams lose I have Idaho as the first team out.

- - - Updated - - -


Yes, mvfc should have exclusivley played meac, patriot, and nec teams like the CAA. CAA shouldn't be rewarded for their weak scheduling when the mvfc and big sky play eachother every year.

You mean instead of crappy big south, ovc and Southland teams?

[Chalupa Batman]

Grizzlies don't have an argument at 7 di wins. They're behind Idaho, and should also be behind Austin Peay and EKU.

Yes the Grizzlies would be behind Idaho. Austin Peay's SOS is 62 compared to 19 for Montana, though the Governors SOS will get a sizeable boost after heading to Tuscaloosa this weekend. They also have a BAD loss to Central Arkansas that Montana doesn't have. To me that keeps them behind the Griz. Eastern Kentucky has a better argument, their SOS is 27 and have beaten SEMO & Bowling Green. But the committee will also take into consideration the way they struggled with Southern Utah (3 D1 wins) and North Alabama (0 D1 wins), needing a TD with 8 seconds left to avoid losing to UNA.

Bottom line in all of this is how important it is to not put yourself on the bubble. If you're on the bubble and you don't get picked, you have no one to blame but yourself. There's arguments for and against these teams and you may not like which arguments people put more weight on.

[WrenFGun]

Yes the Grizzlies would be behind Idaho. Austin Peay's SOS is 62 compared to 19 for Montana, though the Governors SOS will get a sizeable boost after heading to Tuscaloosa this weekend. They also have a BAD loss to Central Arkansas that Montana doesn't have. To me that keeps them behind the Griz. Eastern Kentucky has a better argument, their SOS is 27 and have beaten SEMO & Bowling Green. But the committee will also take into consideration the way they struggled with Southern Utah (3 D1 wins) and North Alabama (0 D1 wins), needing a TD with 8 seconds left to avoid losing to UNA.

Bottom line in all of this is how important it is to not put yourself on the bubble. If you're on the bubble and you don't get picked, you have no one to blame but yourself. There's arguments for and against these teams and you may not like which arguments people put more weight on.

I just disagree. EKU over Bowling Green and SEMO is so much better than anything Montana can offer. Same with Austin Peay over SEMO and EKU. I don't doubt Montana might have won those games too, but all we have is a series of games that told us Montana can't beat premium competition.

[WrenFGun]

I think the SOS argument is flawed. Is the bottom of the BSC better than the ASUN. Sure. But it really doesn't do much more than arbitrarily boost the numbers.

[Chalupa Batman]

I just disagree. EKU over Bowling Green and SEMO is so much better than anything Montana can offer. Same with Austin Peay over SEMO and EKU. I don't doubt Montana might have won those games too, but all we have is a series of games that told us Montana can't beat premium competition.

That's why there's a committee that will meet and hash these things out, because different people have different views. Not everyone is going to agree what they come up with either.

[Utgrizfan]

I just disagree. EKU over Bowling Green and SEMO is so much better than anything Montana can offer. Same with Austin Peay over SEMO and EKU. I don't doubt Montana might have won those games too, but all we have is a series of games that told us Montana can't beat premium competition.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I've heard the Committee takes injuries into account when appraising teams. We lost to 2 top seeded teams Sacramento State and Weber State by combined 10 points on the road with a backup quarterback (and some garbage officiating in the Sac State game).

It could be argued that the only loss we had at full strength was against a now #21 Idaho giving us 2 very close losses against the #2 and #7 ranked teams in the Country with a backup QB (especially if injuries are taken under consideration).

Regardless the Griz need to win this Saturday to put to rest any doubt and keep it out of the Committees hands. If the grizz lose though I still think we have a resume that puts us above other bubble teams. In terms of strength of schedule Montana has EKU beat and that would give them the nod over the Colonels in my personal opinion.

[UNHWildcat18]

Yes, mvfc should have exclusivley played meac, patriot, and nec teams like the CAA. CAA shouldn't be rewarded for their weak scheduling when the mvfc and big sky play eachother every year.

yeah cause playing drake and Duquesne really helped YSU and NDSU….. Sorry you guys are hundreds of miles away and are expensive for some of our schools to travel to

[caribbeanhen]

That's probably the best I've seen. Going to piss off Mercer fans. Hah! What happens if Delaware blows it this week? Montana and Mercer have very similar resumes....if they both lose this week that is.

Delaware fans are nervous even if they beat Villanova and if they lose to Nova again ....forget about it, it’s not even worth discussing as they would be out

[caribbeanhen]

I also said this to you at the time:



That's why teams move around in the poll, as more games are played we have more evidence to better judge them.

The thing that stood out about your post was you gloated that you had taken a good and hard look at Richmond and decided they were not worthy of being in your top 25, which was kind of shocking to me because you’re better than that. A good and hard look would include watching a game or even a hi light right?

I saw Richmond as the CAA favorite coming into the season, they lost at Elon in double OT and kind of dropped off the AGS radar so you have many accomplices on here...

[F'N Hawks]

When it comes to the bubble not all resumes are equal. Playing a P5, SDSU and NDSU every year certainly makes things tougher for the other MVFC teams, tougher than anybody else has to face.
Pretty much need to be 8-0 in the other games to stay off bubble.

[Chalupa Batman]

The thing that stood out about your post was you gloated that you had taken a good and hard look at Richmond and decided they were not worthy of being in your top 25, which was kind of shocking to me because you’re better than that. A good and hard look would include watching a game or even a hi light right?

I saw Richmond as the CAA favorite coming into the season, they lost at Elon in double OT and kind of dropped off the AGS radar so you have many accomplices on here...

At that time all they had was the close loss to Elon. They had also just come off struggling with Villanova and Maine 2 of the previous 3 games. Fortunately for them they've had a chance to prove themselves since and have taken full advantage of it, with another great opportunity coming this weekend.

[geaux_sioux]

Where are the good wins? Best win is what? Youngstown State?

YSU on the road. UNI and ACU at home.

[WestCoastAggie]

I just want Elon in Aggie (Truist) Stadium.

[caribbeanhen]

At that time all they had was the close loss to Elon. They had also just come off struggling with Villanova and Maine 2 of the previous 3 games. Fortunately for them they've had a chance to prove themselves since and have taken full advantage of it, with another great opportunity coming this weekend.

haha, They were already in every poll in the country except yours

You didn’t mention mighty St Francis, a playoff team even but I don’t really blame you

And again, if you actually inject some game watching instead of resume like final scores, you would know they didn’t really struggle with Villanova or Maine ...

[FUBeAR]

haha, They were already in every poll in the country except yours

You didn’t mention mighty St Francis, a playoff team even but I don’t really blame you

And again, if you actually inject some game watching instead of resume like final scores, you would know they didn’t really struggle with Villanova or Maine ...
Did they struggle with Gardner-Webb?

Before squeaking out a narrow 6 point win, until late in the 3rd quarter, at home, the E*Loan Formerly Fightin’ Former Christians were trailing the G-W Runnin’ Bulldogs; a Team that Mercer totally dominated from Kickoff to final whistle…routed ‘em by 5 scores.



Qtr
Time
Scoring Play
GWU
ELO


2nd
00:33
GWU - Luther,T.J. 33 yd pass from Fisher,Bailey (Billingsley,Jay kick) 3 plays, 37 yards, TOP 00:31
24
20


3rd
05:19
ELO - Bonner,Jordan 27 yd pass from McKay,Matthew (Davis,Skyler kick) 6 plays, 56 yards, TOP 03:17
24
27


4th
13:04
ELO - Davis,Skyler 41 yd field goal 7 plays, 42 yards, TOP 02:05
24
30





24
30

[caribbeanhen]

Did they struggle with Gardner-Webb?

Before squeaking out a narrow 6 point win, until late in the 3rd quarter, at home, the E*Loan Formerly Fightin’ Former Christians were trailing the G-W Runnin’ Bulldogs; a Team that Mercer totally dominated from Kickoff to final whistle…routed ‘em by 5 scores.



Qtr
Time
Scoring Play
GWU
ELO


2nd
00:33
GWU - Luther,T.J. 33 yd pass from Fisher,Bailey (Billingsley,Jay kick) 3 plays, 37 yards, TOP 00:31
24
20


3rd
05:19
ELO - Bonner,Jordan 27 yd pass from McKay,Matthew (Davis,Skyler kick) 6 plays, 56 yards, TOP 03:17
24
27


4th
13:04
ELO - Davis,Skyler 41 yd field goal 7 plays, 42 yards, TOP 02:05
24
30





24
30




Richmond hasn’t played Gardeners Webb yet Wilbur

[Chalupa Batman]

haha, They were already in every poll in the country except yours

You didn’t mention mighty St Francis, a playoff team even but I don’t really blame you

And again, if you actually inject some game watching instead of resume like final scores, you would know they didn’t really struggle with Villanova or Maine ...

Are you really going to try and say "mighty" St. Francis and expect me to keep a straight face?

I don't just look at the final score, I also look at team stats, box scores, drive charts, etc. Early in the 4th quarter Villanova had the ball inside Richmond's 20 yard line with a chance to take the lead. The Spiders held on 4th down and then finally put the game out of reach when they made a FG with 1:12 left. Against Maine they didn't struggle as much but it was still a one possession game in the 4th quarter, and I didn't realize that failing to put away the team that had just lost to Stony Brook the previous week was actually quite impressive.

Again, they've had additional chances to prove themselves and have taken advantage of it, and thus they have moved up in the rankings.



I must also say, how you keep harping on about the fact you think I had Richmond so wrong a couple weeks ago is really odd considering you also said this in our initial back-and-forth then:


I’ll tell you a secret, I haven’t watched hardly any Valley games this year and I’m sure my poll is a mess in spots ...

[FUBeAR]

Richmond hasn’t played Gardeners Webb yet Wilbur
Stop using those dang indefinite pronouns then! How’s anyone supposed to keep up with which of the 63 CAA Teams you’re talking about.

Don’t matter…if the Runnin’ Bulldogs had run to Richmond, they woulda stomped the Spiders, since e*Loan did and the Formerly Fightin’ Former Christians stole a win from G-W. That’s what FUBeAR meant to say.

[KPSUL]

And for the hell of it since it's only one week away I'll throw a projected bracket out there.

Elon @ Furman to #1 Sac St
Gardner-Webb @ Chattanooga to #8 Richmond
ACU @ Montana to #5 UIW
SEMO @ SLU to #4 Samford
UNH @ UND to #3 NDSU
St Francis @ Delaware to #6 Holy Cross
Idaho @ Weber St to #7 Montana St
Davidson @ William & Mary to #2 SDSU

Jeez, thanks alot for that projection, back to back trips to North Dakota.

If that was for sure, I'd cheer for U Maine this Saturday and just wait for next year!

[kab]

At least both stadiums are indoor but think you would need only one trip

[uofmman1122]

And for the hell of it since it's only one week away I'll throw a projected bracket out there.

Elon @ Furman to #1 Sac St
Gardner-Webb @ Chattanooga to #8 Richmond
ACU @ Montana to #5 UIW
SEMO @ SLU to #4 Samford
UNH @ UND to #3 NDSU
St Francis @ Delaware to #6 Holy Cross
Idaho @ Weber St to #7 Montana St
Davidson @ William & Mary to #2 SDSU
Would absolutely love this bracket as a Griz fan. :D

[caribbeanhen]

Are you really going to try and say "mighty" St. Francis and expect me to keep a straight face? :

of course not

I’m the humor champ you know

[caribbeanhen]

Stop using those dang indefinite pronouns then! How’s anyone supposed to keep up with which of the 63 CAA Teams you’re talking about.

Don’t matter…if the Runnin’ Bulldogs had run to Richmond, they woulda stomped the Spiders, since e*Loan did and the Formerly Fightin’ Former Christians stole a win from G-W. That’s what FUBeAR meant to say.

because FuBeAR just ain’t anyone

[KPSUL]

At least both stadiums are indoor but think you would need only one trip

OK, send North Dakota to New Hampshire so we'd only need one trip to play NDSU. Actually, if the Committee is convoluted enough to schedule that bracket, I'd say it would be at least 50/50 that UNH would have outbid UND for the home game. Better yet, UND could just win Saturday and prevent NDSU from being seeded at all.

[taper]

OK, send North Dakota to New Hampshire so we'd only need one trip to play NDSU. Actually, if the Committee is convoluted enough to schedule that bracket, I'd say it would be at least 50/50 that UNH would have outbid UND for the home game. Better yet, UND could just win Saturday and prevent NDSU from being seeded at all.
Non-seeded teams go by bids. Do you think you can outbid UND? It really is as simple as that.

[Professor Chaos]

Jeez, thanks alot for that projection, back to back trips to North Dakota.

If that was for sure, I'd cheer for U Maine this Saturday and just wait for next year!
If NDSU beats UND on Saturday and UND still makes the playoffs there's a good chance that whoever matches up with them in the first round would be making two potential trips to the Dakotas in two weeks since UND does have the ability to bid pretty aggressively for a first round playoff game and would very likely be podded with either NDSU or SDSU given they're probably the only first round playoff team within bus distance (400 miles) of those two schools.

[KPSUL]

Non-seeded teams go by bids. Do you think you can outbid UND? It really is as simple as that.

Didn't I just answer that in the post you quoted?

[WrenFGun]

Would the committee put NDSU in a position to play ND twice in 3 weeks? I know the answer is yes because they did it to Maine a few years back with UNH, but it's always a bummer.

[Professor Chaos]

Would the committee put NDSU in a position to play ND twice in 3 weeks? I know the answer is yes because they did it to Maine a few years back with UNH, but it's always a bummer.
They did it last year with South Dakota and NDSU but SIU beat USD in the first round so it didn't happen anyway.

[lucchesicourt]

And if UC Davis beats Sac then that is 3 teams at 7-4. Who is in and who is out?

[Professor Chaos]

And if UC Davis beats Sac then that is 3 teams at 7-4. Who is in and who is out?
UC Davis should be in over any other 7-4 team in the country IMO (and probably would be in over a good chunk of 8-3 teams) with a win over Sac St. The playoffs start this Saturday for the Aggies.

[ElonFirefighter]

The NCAA committee put two SoCon teams in the same super regional a few year back, which is against the rules. It was funny to see the selection show air then all of a sudden all the brackets disappear. I know its a different sport put just goes to show how they place teams with no bearing to who they play or their conference

[FUBeAR]

FAMU “cements” their place in the FCS Playoffs with a big win over 2-8 Bethune Cookman this week. Rattlers expecting to host a 1st round game…

https://twitter.com/alisonposey14/status/1592326364795138048

[UNHWildcat18]

FAMU “cements” their place in the FCS Playoffs with a big win over 2-8 Bethune Cookman this week. Rattlers expecting to host a 1st round game…

https://twitter.com/alisonposey14/status/1592326364795138048

I think it was Jay Walker complaining a few years back when a MEAC/SWAC team didn't get the at large after going 9-2, fast forward to 2021 he talked about how much damage the rattlers were going to do. Went on to lose the first round to SLU 38-14.

The NCAA fix is in, they win and they are in.. regardless of if they lost 59-3 to the only top 50 team they played.

[NY Crusader 2010]

STATS ranking has Florida A&M at 16...but of course that same rating set has Holy Cross at #3, Princeton #12 Yale at #14 and Harvard #25. So, yea not buying that ranking.

They are #24 in the coaches poll. The biggest question is who would they be getting in ahead of as an at-large when you break down the bracketology.

[caribbeanhen]

Should start a who are the Rattlers playing in the first round pool or even a poll

[FUBeAR]

I think it was Jay Walker complaining a few years back when a MEAC/SWAC team didn't get the at large after going 9-2, fast forward to 2021 he talked about how much damage the rattlers were going to do. Went on to lose the first round to SLU 38-14.

The NCAA fix is in, they win and they are in.. regardless of if they lost 59-3 to the only top 50 team they played.
Looks that way…looks like the fix is in for FAMU to host a 1st round game also…

https://www.tallahassee.com/story/sports/college/famu/2022/11/14/famu-football-ncaa-rattlers-swac-playoffs-tallahassee-florida-classic-bethune-cookman-daytona-orl-fl/10665070002/

Monday is the deadline and the university is working with the City of Tallahassee, Visit Tallahassee, and the Sports Bureau Commission to solidify the bid.

"We met as an administration last week and Dr. (Larry) Robinson (https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/local/famu-news/2022/11/04/famu-president-larry-robinson-announces-immediate-plans-restructure-his-leadership-team/8267399001/) is leading the charge to get bids submitted and Interim AD Michael Smith (https://www.tallahassee.com/story/sports/college/famu/2022/08/24/famu-ad-michael-smith-proud-progress-and-investments-rattlers-athletics-williesimmons/7888632001/) has all hands on deck to make sure that everything is done properly. We all understand how important that will be for the city, university, and football program. Everyone that will be integral in us successfully hosting a playoff game has been contacted..." - FAMU coach Willie Simmons (https://www.tallahassee.com/story/sports/college/famu/2022/11/09/famu-football-willie-simmons-address-south-florida-usf-coach-vacancy-swac-hbcu-ncaa-tampa-tlh-fla/8313556001/)

That ain’t no ‘might be’ or ‘could be.’ That’s a “WILL BE.”

BTW & FWIW - FAMU is ranked #53 by Massey and their best win is over #73 Southern. The AVERAGE Massey ranking of their defeated FCS opponents, assuming they defeat B-C, is 103. The Rattlers also defeated a D2 opponent.

[crusader11]

What alternate reality are we living in?

The field hasn't been set and these guys are already talking about bids for a home game?

If the committee puts FAMU into the field, then they can't talk about at-large criteria...it all goes down the toilet.

[MR. CHICKEN]

STATS ranking has Florida A&M at 16...but of course that same rating set has Holy Cross at #3, Princeton #12 Yale at #14 and Harvard #25. So, yea not buying that ranking.

They are #24 in the coaches poll. The biggest question is who would they be getting in ahead of as an at-large when you break down the bracketology.


32664


.......DELAWARE/MONTANA...........BRAWK?

......COMMITTEE WANTS AN ALL INCLUSIVE TOURNEY LADS........AWK!

[caribbeanhen]

32664


.......DELAWARE/MONTANA...........BRAWK?

......COMMITTEE WANTS AN ALL INCLUSIVE TOURNEY LADS........AWK!

this

[UNHWildcat18]

Looks that way…looks like the fix is in for FAMU to host a 1st round game also…

https://www.tallahassee.com/story/sports/college/famu/2022/11/14/famu-football-ncaa-rattlers-swac-playoffs-tallahassee-florida-classic-bethune-cookman-daytona-orl-fl/10665070002/

Monday is the deadline and the university is working with the City of Tallahassee, Visit Tallahassee, and the Sports Bureau Commission to solidify the bid.

"We met as an administration last week and Dr. (Larry) Robinson (https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/local/famu-news/2022/11/04/famu-president-larry-robinson-announces-immediate-plans-restructure-his-leadership-team/8267399001/) is leading the charge to get bids submitted and Interim AD Michael Smith (https://www.tallahassee.com/story/sports/college/famu/2022/08/24/famu-ad-michael-smith-proud-progress-and-investments-rattlers-athletics-williesimmons/7888632001/) has all hands on deck to make sure that everything is done properly. We all understand how important that will be for the city, university, and football program. Everyone that will be integral in us successfully hosting a playoff game has been contacted..." - FAMU coach Willie Simmons (https://www.tallahassee.com/story/sports/college/famu/2022/11/09/famu-football-willie-simmons-address-south-florida-usf-coach-vacancy-swac-hbcu-ncaa-tampa-tlh-fla/8313556001/)

That ain’t no ‘might be’ or ‘could be.’ That’s a “WILL BE.”

BTW & FWIW - FAMU is ranked #53 by Massey and their best win is over #73 Southern. The AVERAGE Massey ranking of their defeated FCS opponents, assuming they defeat B-C, is 103. The Rattlers also defeated a D2 opponent.

Insanity, I mean is there any other reasoning other than "inclusion"?

[crusader11]

https://twitter.com/abc27/status/1592646124573179906

This is really strange. It's almost as if it's a foregone conclusion that if they win this weekend, they're in.

I mean, look at the title of the article!!

Has the NCAA told FAMU something?

I'm incredibly perplexed.

[taper]

What alternate reality are we living in?

The field hasn't been set and these guys are already talking about bids for a home game?

If the committee puts FAMU into the field, then they can't talk about at-large criteria...it all goes down the toilet.
You have to submit bids well before selection starts. If you think you have any chance at all of getting in you should bid.

[Sitting Bull]

Here's my crack at it. I strayed from PC's Massey projections and went with Montana State to win the Brawl and William & Mary to beat Richmond. Not projecting home/away teams in the first round just matchups.


Richmond (8-3)/St. Francis (9-2) @ #1 Sacramento State
Abilene Christian (8-3)/Weber State (9-2) @ #8 Incarnate Word (10-1)

Furman (9-2)/Gardner Webb (6-5) @ #4 William & Mary (10-1)
Elon (8-3)/Davidson (9-2) @ #5 Samford (10-1)

Idaho (7-4)/North Dakota (7-4) @ #2 South Dakota State
Fordham (9-2)/New Hampshire (8-3) @ #7 Holy Cross

Southeast Missouri State (9-2)/Chattanooga (8-3) @ #3 Montana State
Southeastern Louisiana (8-3)/Delaware @ #6 North Dakota State



My final 2 spots came down to 3 teams: North Dakota (7-4), Montana (7-4), and Fordham (9-2). I went with North Dakota over Montana because their SOS is slightly higher and all of the Grizzlies' wins have come against bad teams (4-6 Portland State is their best win), while North Dakota has at least beat some decent teams in Abilene Christian, Youngstown State, and Northern Iowa. I then went with Fordham partially based on the committee taking 9-win FAMU last year over 7 win teams Eastern Kentucky & Rhode Island, and partially because I just want to see the Rams in the playoffs this year.

Elon/Davidson going to William & Mary & Furman/Gardner-Webb going to Samford would be more likely due to regionalization but I wanted to break up potential conference rematches in the 2nd round and those trips are still fairly close, though they do creep outside the 400 mile bus trip limit.

Not sure if it’s attempted or not but I sure hope the committee avoids a repeat of conference games prior to any potential match- up in the semifinals. We’ve done it too often at W&M, once with Delaware and another with Richmond. I wouldn’t mind if we had a match-up with UNH prior to the semis but it makes too much sense for UNH to be linked with HC in early round possibilities.

Most projections I’ve seen have W&M in brackets with So Con which would be terrific.

[crusader11]

head coach Willie Simmons confirming today that they have been contacted by the NCAA as a team that has a strong chance of making the playoffs.

Pulled the above from this article: https://www.wtxl.com/sports/college-sports/famu/florida-a-m-puts-in-bid-to-host-potential-first-round-fcs-playoff-game

This is a damn travesty. A joke. The NCAA / committee has zero credibility. If they go through with this, nothing they should do in the future as it relates to selecting at-large bids for the field should be taken seriously.

[crusader11]

You have to submit bids well before selection starts. If you think you have any chance at all of getting in you should bid.

Ah yes, you're right.

[FUBeAR]

https://twitter.com/abc27/status/1592646124573179906

This is really strange. It's almost as if it's a foregone conclusion that if they win this weekend, they're in.

I mean, look at the title of the article!!

Has the NCAA told FAMU something?

I'm incredibly perplexed.
Yep - from the article…


”According to a news release from FAMU Tuesday, it has submitted a bid to the NCAA to host an FCS first round playoff game Saturday, Nov. 26. FAMU notes the bid is contingent on the Rattlers defeating the Bethune-Cookman University Wildcats (https://www.wtxl.com/sports/college-sports/famu/florida-a-m-puts-in-bid-to-host-potential-first-round-fcs-playoff-game)…” (link goes to article which states… “To lock in their playoff spot, FAMU has to beat Bethune-Cookman…”)


FAMU Wins & FAMU IN / FAMU Wins & FAMU Hosts

[crusader11]

FAMU Wins & FAMU IN / FAMU Wins & FAMU Hosts

And bye bye either Idaho, UC Davis, Mercer, Fordham, North Dakota, UNH, or Delaware.

[Professor Chaos]

This makes my head hurt... I'd hope the quotes from FAMU's coach and these articles are just trying to draw their desired conclusions from the committee doing their due diligence on everyone. It would completely blow my mind if they've made any guarantees to FAMU. What happens if some or all of these happen? UC Davis beats Sac St, Montana beats Montana St, UND beats NDSU, and/or Mercer beats Samford along with teams like UNH, Delaware, Chattanooga, and Furman winning the games they're supposed to win??? Not to mention UTM winning the OVC coin flip - there's no way FAMU can be guaranteed of anything.

[crusader11]

As I recall, last season FAMU seemed to have a legitimate shot to get in as one of the final at-larges. The bubble wasn't very strong.

You could have argued 7-4 URI or 7-3 Mercer (only 6 D1 wins though) or 7-4 Eastern Kentucky would have been better selections, but it wasn't outrageous for FAMU to get a bid (7-6 loss to Jackson St and a somewhat competitive game against South Florida).

This year, just don't see it.

[MSUBobcat]

of course not

I’m the humor champ you know


https://youtu.be/FRy8LJ6JRiQ

[Professor Chaos]

As I recall, last season FAMU seemed to have a legitimate shot to get in as one of the final at-larges. The bubble wasn't very strong.

You could have argued 7-4 URI or 7-3 Mercer (only 6 D1 wins though) or 7-4 Eastern Kentucky would have been better selections, but it wasn't outrageous for FAMU to get a bid (7-6 loss to Jackson St and a somewhat competitive game against South Florida).

This year, just don't see it.
Agreed, although IIRC FAMU wasn't even in the last 2 or 3 in that the committee provided to the selection show. Based on the poll consensus FAMU would've been the first team out according to the AGS Poll (we would've had Mercer in instead) and would've been the 2nd to last team in and 3rd to last team in according to the STATS and Coaches Polls, respectively. However, both the STATS and Coaches Polls didn't release until the day after the selection show last year so who's to say what impact FAMU's selection had on the voters in those polls who submitted ballots after the selection show aired???

[atthewbon]

https://twitter.com/abc27/status/1592646124573179906

This is really strange. It's almost as if it's a foregone conclusion that if they win this weekend, they're in.

I mean, look at the title of the article!!

Has the NCAA told FAMU something?

I'm incredibly perplexed.

I'm guessing its just the person running the social media page and author who don't fully understand how the fcs playoffs and bid process work. I wouldn't be surprised if FAMU gets in at 9-2 but I doubt they are guaranteed with a win. Any team with a chance to make the playoff is given the chance to put a bid in, it does not guarantee anything.

[MSUBobcat]

I'm guessing its just the person running the social media page and author who don't fully understand how the fcs playoffs and bid process work. I wouldn't be surprised if FAMU gets in at 9-2 but I doubt they are guaranteed with a win. Any team with a chance to make the playoff is given the chance to put a bid in, it does not guarantee anything.

This is the most likely explanation. I have a really hard time believing that the committee has told anyone, Sac, SDSU, et al, that they are guaranteed to be in, with a win. If that did, in fact, happen, the committee has ZERO credibility.

[crusader11]

I'm guessing its just the person running the social media page and author who don't fully understand how the fcs playoffs and bid process work. I wouldn't be surprised if FAMU gets in at 9-2 but I doubt they are guaranteed with a win. Any team with a chance to make the playoff is given the chance to put a bid in, it does not guarantee anything.

This is probably it.

For someone who isn't familiar with how this all works, it's easy to make the inference that submitting a bid for a home game must mean that they're going to be in the playoffs.

[caribbeanhen]

This is probably it.

For someone who isn't familiar with how this all works, it's easy to make the inference that submitting a bid for a home game must mean that they're going to be in the playoffs.

I think they’re telegraphing exactly how it works in 2022

prepare yourself (again)

[Gil Dobie]

Agreed, although IIRC FAMU wasn't even in the last 2 or 3 in that the committee provided to the selection show. Based on the poll consensus FAMU would've been the first team out according to the AGS Poll (we would've had Mercer in instead) and would've been the 2nd to last team in and 3rd to last team in according to the STATS and Coaches Polls, respectively. However, both the STATS and Coaches Polls didn't release until the day after the selection show last year so who's to say what impact FAMU's selection had on the voters in those polls who submitted ballots after the selection show aired???

I can see FAMU pointing to the UNH loss to MEAC NCCU, that lost to SC State, that lost to FAMU. I know it's a stretch, but I've seen stranger things happen at the bubble area of the bracket.

[kab]

97 hours and counting until the selections are made and the real bitching starts

[FUBeAR]

I can see FAMU pointing to the UNH loss to MEAC NCCU, that lost to SC State, that lost to FAMU. I know it's a stretch, but I've seen stranger things happen at the bubble area of the bracket.

This is the most likely explanation. I have a really hard time believing that the committee has told anyone, Sac, SDSU, et al, that they are guaranteed to be in, with a win. If that did, in fact, happen, the committee has ZERO credibility.
OK … maybe, but what do we (the real experts) think?

IF FAMU beats B-C, at 9-2 … ranked #53 by Massey, with their best win over #73 Southern, with an AVERAGE Massey ranking of 103 for their defeated FCS opponents (assuming they defeat B-C), and with 1 of their wins over a D2 opponent…

Is FAMU Playoff-worthy or nah? (show your work)

[WileECoyote06]

I think it was Jay Walker complaining a few years back when a MEAC/SWAC team didn't get the at large after going 9-2, fast forward to 2021 he talked about how much damage the rattlers were going to do. Went on to lose the first round to SLU 38-14.

The NCAA fix is in, they win and they are in.. regardless of if they lost 59-3 to the only top 50 team they played.

It was 2015. BCU didn't get the at-large but had 8 FCS wins, and 1 FCS loss. They had an OOC win over ranked SWAC West champion Grambling State; and their only FCS loss was in the MEAC circle-of-death on the road to A&T. BCU had come off two years of FBS upsets. I think their D2 game kept them out.

The SRS caps Margin of Victory at 21 points, so in the eyes of the computer the blowout would be 24-3 at a neutral site. xdontknowx

[WileECoyote06]

I can see FAMU pointing to the UNH loss to MEAC NCCU, that lost to SC State, that lost to FAMU. I know it's a stretch, but I've seen stranger things happen at the bubble area of the bracket.

That's kinda how D2 playoff selection operates. Especially when teams have similar win totals. Also, let's not forget winning streaks and how they can play into the subjective evaluations of teams. FAMU is on a eight game streak. Alas, I think that the D2 game will weigh down the Rattler's SOS though.

[caribbeanhen]

That's kinda how D2 playoff selection operates. Especially when teams have similar win totals. Also, let's not forget winning streaks and how they can play into the subjective evaluations of teams. FAMU is on a eight game streak. Alas, I think that the D2 game will weigh down the Rattler's SOS though.

Would you rather see your team in the playoffs or the Celebration Bowl?

[WileECoyote06]

Would you rather see your team in the playoffs or the Celebration Bowl?

Celebration Bowl and it's not even close. My rooms are booked already and I bought tickets just in case I can't get some from the school's allotment.

[caribbeanhen]

Celebration Bowl and it's not even close. My rooms are booked already and I bought tickets just in case I can't get some from the school's allotment.

That’s what I thought, but I also thought I remember reading a post from you that kind of muddied the waters on that

[wapiti]

Celebration Bowl and it's not even close. My rooms are booked already and I bought tickets just in case I can't get some from the school's allotment.


and NC Central is more likely to win a post season game in the celebration bowl than in the playoffs.

[ElCid]

I'm guessing its just the person running the social media page and author who don't fully understand how the fcs playoffs and bid process work. I wouldn't be surprised if FAMU gets in at 9-2 but I doubt they are guaranteed with a win. Any team with a chance to make the playoff is given the chance to put a bid in, it does not guarantee anything.

Exactly. It's just posturing. Maybe to set up a "we aren't getting a fair shake argument." But probably just trying to set themselves up in people's minds. I'm sure the committee will not use this as a reason to say, "gee maybe we should include them." Not likely to affect them. But one never knows.

[WileECoyote06]

That’s what I thought, but I also thought I remember reading a post from you that kind of muddied the waters on that

The Celebration Bowl was alway sold to MEAC fans as a way to increase post-season access. If NCCU was eligible for the playoffs, then I'd be happy to follow my team to Elon, Greensboro, Boiling Springs, Richmond or wherever.

In my opinion, since FCS is a weird piece-meal division made up of so many disparate institutions that have vastly different missions, enrollments, prestige, and levels of athletic investment; the Celebration Bowl was/is a great option for the MEAC and SWAC until things settle. In my "misguided to laughable" opinion, this is all James Madison's fault. xdrunkyx

[WileECoyote06]

and NC Central is more likely to win a post season game in the celebration bowl than in the playoffs.

Maybe we get matched up with Davidson or Saint Francis. . I'd take us in either matchup. xlolx

[FUBeAR]

Maybe we get matched up with Davidson or Saint Francis. . I'd take us in either matchup. xlolx
Seems like a matchup of the MEAC Champs with ANY Team from the CAA would be a slam dunk win also.

Your guys already stomped the presumptive CAA Champion by 3 scores, didn’t you?

[caribbeanhen]

Maybe we get matched up with Davidson or Saint Francis. . I'd take us in either matchup. xlolx

or New Hampshire

[Professor Chaos]

That's kinda how D2 playoff selection operates. Especially when teams have similar win totals. Also, let's not forget winning streaks and how they can play into the subjective evaluations of teams. FAMU is on a eight game streak. Alas, I think that the D2 game will weigh down the Rattler's SOS though.
It's not just that D2 game IMO. The SWAC does them no favors with multiple SOS anchors like UAPB, MVSU, and the team they're playing this week BCU. On top of that they're not blowing these teams out like you'd expect an at-large playoff team to do. Their margin in that D2 game was 10 points. They've had 3 wins by less than one score and 3 more by less than two scores. In fact their net points on the season is only +14 when you factor in their blowout losses to JSU and UNC. In other words they're averaging about 1.5 points more than they're giving up per game.... against a schedule that is in the bottom 10% of FCS in strength even including those games against JSU and UNC.

I think a lot of people are using last year's FAMU squad as the barometer but I recall there being quite a bit of discussion around South Carolina St in 2019 being worthy of an at-large and they were left out at 8-3 despite having an actual quality win over Wofford who was the SOCON AQ that year. I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that the committee will evaluate FAMU differently than others because they're an HBCU.

[Professor Chaos]

One final note on that - historically the AGS Poll consensus has been pretty darn good at projecting the at-large teams getting 106 of 115 (92%) correct since 2013. FAMU last fall was one of the 9 we missed on but they were the first team out in the consensus. In fact of those 9 misses only one (Nicholls in 2017) was further out than the first two teams out in the consensus. Right now FAMU is tied for 35th in the AGS Poll consensus with a single point - 14 spots (7 of which occupied by at-large eligible teams) and 289 points behind Delaware who, as of now, is projected as the 13th at-large playoff team in the AGS Poll consensus. A win over BCU isn't going to move that needle and I don't think the bubble could get close to going as nuclear as it would need to in order to knock off the plethora of teams in front of FAMU right now.

[atthewbon]

Whether deserving or not, I think 9-2 FAMU gets in before every 7-4 team besides for maybe a couple Big Sky/MVFC teams and SELA(2 fbs losses), even then I think they have a real good shot over say a 7-4 Montana, UND, or Youngstown who wouldn't have a super high quality win. While I doubt there is any guarantee they make it I think they have a shot. The sub D1 win and margin of victory for Jackson st over FAMU definitely hurts compared to last year but they would have 9 straight wins going into the playoff which I think help their chances. With a win I think they are squarely on the bubble but will probably need some help like so many other teams.

[Chalupa Batman]

Whether deserving or not, I think 9-2 FAMU gets in before every 7-4 team besides for maybe a couple Big Sky/MVFC teams and SELA(2 fbs losses), even then I think they have a real good shot over say a 7-4 Montana, UND, or Youngstown who wouldn't have a super high quality win. While I doubt there is any guarantee they make it I think they have a shot. The sub D1 win and margin of victory for Jackson st over FAMU definitely hurts compared to last year but they would have 9 straight wins going into the playoff which I think help their chances. With a win I think they are squarely on the bubble but will probably need some help like so many other teams.

If FAMU is in consideration for an at-large bid simply because they have 9 wins than Fordham should be a lock for a bid.

[uofmman1122]

Stolen from eGriz, but Sam Herder had the chair of the committee on his podcast and asked about selection criteria. Some highlights:

https://herosports.com/fcs-podcast-playoff-committee-chair-jermaine-truax-bzbz/

Lot of good info and criteria includes:
- win loss record
- simple rating system
- strength of schedule
- coaches poll
- stats poll
- availability of players at time of win/loss
- regional advisory committee
- FBS win vs loss
- is there such a thing as a good loss….yes, he mentions taking Sac St to overtime specifically and how that is considered
- ranked wins (does it count as a quality win if you beat a ranked team who then eventually falls out of rankings)
- regionalization
- seeding

So have a listen and sharpen your pitchforks lmao

[atthewbon]

If FAMU is in consideration for an at-large bid simply because they have 9 wins than Fordham should be a lock for a bid.

I don't disagree but I think the committee will put both on the bubble but have Fordham over FAMU

[jacksfan29!]

Stolen from eGriz, but Sam Herder had the chair of the committee on his podcast and asked about selection criteria. Some highlights:

https://herosports.com/fcs-podcast-playoff-committee-chair-jermaine-truax-bzbz/

Lot of good info and criteria includes:
- win loss record
- simple rating system
- strength of schedule
- coaches poll
- stats poll
- availability of players at time of win/loss
- regional advisory committee
- FBS win vs loss
- is there such a thing as a good loss….yes, he mentions taking Sac St to overtime specifically and how that is considered
- ranked wins (does it count as a quality win if you beat a ranked team who then eventually falls out of rankings)
- regionalization
- seeding

So have a listen and sharpen your pitchforks lmao

So they intend to take into account that SDSU has gone through 7linebackers including the team leader and had a top NFL prospect miss half the season, cool,#1 seed ensured. What an inane approach, doubt it used. Adding that line item seems designed by the interviewer to pacify the Griz faithful over their QB missing two games.

[uofmman1122]

So they intend to take into account that SDSU has gone through 7linebackers including the team leader and had a top NFL prospect miss half the season, cool,#1 seed ensured. What an inane approach, doubt it used. Adding that line item seems designed by the interviewer to pacify the Griz faithful over their QB missing two games.
You obviously aren't familiar with Sam Herder's relationship with Griz fans. lmao

[Gil Dobie]

Stolen from eGriz, but Sam Herder had the chair of the committee on his podcast and asked about selection criteria. Some highlights:

https://herosports.com/fcs-podcast-playoff-committee-chair-jermaine-truax-bzbz/

Lot of good info and criteria includes:
- win loss record
- simple rating system
- strength of schedule
- coaches poll
- stats poll
- availability of players at time of win/loss
- regional advisory committee
- FBS win vs loss
- is there such a thing as a good loss….yes, he mentions taking Sac St to overtime specifically and how that is considered
- ranked wins (does it count as a quality win if you beat a ranked team who then eventually falls out of rankings)
- regionalization
- seeding

So have a listen and sharpen your pitchforks lmao

Couple items on that list that could open the door for FAMU for the Committee, including that darn Coaches Poll.

[caribbeanhen]

Couple items on that list that could open the door for FAMU for the Committee, including that darn Coaches Poll.

That door is swinging gate wide open

atmosphere was also mentioned I think

[Professor Chaos]

Couple items on that list that could open the door for FAMU for the Committee, including that darn Coaches Poll.
It's weird how even though the selection committee chair calls out the STATS and Coaches Polls as official tools their selections for seeds and at-large teams have more closely mirrored the AGS Poll over the years. ;)

I'm not saying they use the AGS Poll I'm just saying they share a vital commonality with the AGS Poll voters and that's a forum to discuss teams relative to each other before and after voting allowing them to recognize and compensate for their biases.

[FUBeAR]

Couple items on that list that could open the door for FAMU for the Committee, including that darn Coaches Poll.
FUBeAR listened to the podcast.

What FUBeAR heard Chairman Jermaine Truax, Bucknell’s AD…

https://images.sidearmdev.com/resize?url=https://s3.amazonaws.com/bucknellbison.com/images/2018/8/27/JTruaxHS.jpg&width=300&height=&type=jpeg&gravity=&quality=
(love that Mercer Orange necktie xsmiley_wix)

…say (between the lines) was…

1) The Committee Chair well knows what has been published regarding the Committee’s process. He is able to speak fluently about every aspect of that process without ‘boxing in’ himself or the Committee Members in any way.

2) The Committee will use whatever information they want to use and they aren’t going to put any structure around how each individual Committee uses whatever information they want to use to arrive at their decisions as to what Teams they are going to support for Seeds / At-Large bids

3) Combining 1 & 2, while each Committee Member may feel they are being objective, it is ultimately a subjectively selected field headed by subjectively selected seeds.

4) Holy Cross, AutoBid from the Conference represented by the Chairman, is a lock for a seed

5) Fordham, Runner-Up from the Conference represented by the Chairman, is a lock for an At-Large because they had a ‘good loss’ to Holy Cross. Fordham is ranked #40 by Massey. Their best win is over Massey’s 59th ranked Team. Assuming Fordham beats 3-7 / Massey #92 Colgate, the AVERAGE Massey rank of Fordham’s defeated opponents is #95. [FUBeAR is not sure who would deserve an At-Large bid less, Fordham or FAMU. Tough call…which is prolly why both of them will get in.]

It’s good to be the Chair!

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/ImprobableDeterminedCommabutterfly-max-1mb.gif

[WrenFGun]

The committee should explain why I'm rooting so hard for W&M to beat Richmond in a close one so that UNH has at least a chance to win the CAA so I don't have to sweat this out the next day. It's the same reason as a bubble team I'm rooting against everyone else on the bubble -- I do think someone is getting screwed this year. The writing is on the wall. We could have a true Whoofed situation.

The example I draw is when Kennesaw State inexplicably made the field back in 2019, and they weren't even one of the last teams in; SIU got woofed.

[ElCid]

Stolen from eGriz, but Sam Herder had the chair of the committee on his podcast and asked about selection criteria. Some highlights:

https://herosports.com/fcs-podcast-playoff-committee-chair-jermaine-truax-bzbz/

Lot of good info and criteria includes:
- win loss record
- simple rating system
- strength of schedule
- coaches poll
- stats poll
- availability of players at time of win/loss
- regional advisory committee
- FBS win vs loss
- is there such a thing as a good loss….yes, he mentions taking Sac St to overtime specifically and how that is considered
- ranked wins (does it count as a quality win if you beat a ranked team who then eventually falls out of rankings)
- regionalization
- seeding

So have a listen and sharpen your pitchforks lmao

It's really unconscionable that the AGS isn't a factor.

[Professor Chaos]

After first saying the potential coin flip for the OVC AQ would not be broadcast and the results would be relayed accordingly and then saying that they "likely" will provide a recording of the coin flip after the fact the OVC now says they will live stream the coin flip on Twitter on the @OVCSports feed.

https://twitter.com/CraigHaley/status/1593274756370931713

[FUBeAR]

After first saying the potential coin flip for the OVC AQ would not be broadcast and the results would be relayed accordingly and then saying that they "likely" will provide a recording of the coin flip after the fact the OVC now says they will live stream the coin flip on Twitter on the @OVCSports feed.

https://twitter.com/CraigHaley/status/1593274756370931713
FUBeAR heard the OVC has hired these guys to conduct the CoinFlip and produce/direct the Twitter LiveStream. It’s all good SkyHawks. Y’all are in.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GsLopdvhFpk

[Ncagalum]

Correct me if I'm wrong but I've heard the Committee takes injuries into account when appraising teams. We lost to 2 top seeded teams Sacramento State and Weber State by combined 10 points on the road with a backup quarterback (and some garbage officiating in the Sac State game).

It could be argued that the only loss we had at full strength was against a now #21 Idaho giving us 2 very close losses against the #2 and #7 ranked teams in the Country with a backup QB (especially if injuries are taken under consideration).

Regardless the Griz need to win this Saturday to put to rest any doubt and keep it out of the Committees hands. If the grizz lose though I still think we have a resume that puts us above other bubble teams. In terms of strength of schedule Montana has EKU beat and that would give them the nod over the Colonels in my personal opinion.

Every team could argue injuries - it’s part of football. Taking into account hypotheticals is sort of like Halloween (if ifs and buts were candy and nuts ….)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[uofmman1122]

Every team could argue injuries - it’s part of football. Taking into account hypotheticals is sort of like Halloween (if ifs and buts were candy and nuts ….)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
And injuries will be considered for every team? Why is the assumption that this is going to be a consideration for only like 3 teams?

I also just don't get this prevailing idea around here that some subjective criteria are okay to consider, but others aren't.

[lionsrking2]

Every team could argue injuries - it’s part of football. Taking into account hypotheticals is sort of like Halloween (if ifs and buts were candy and nuts ….)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This is correct. We lost both starting tackles, starting right guard, starting tight end, both starting DEs and two backups, and a starting DT within the first three weeks of the season. And lost to Texas A&M-Commerce without our starting QB. Everybody has injuries—some more than others. Some have the depth to overcome, many do not. But nobody feels sorry for you.

[crusader11]

Posted this over on the Holy Cross message board (so it has a 'Sader spin to it), but figured others would find this interesting as we contemplate the seeds....

While I think that 11-0 (11 D1 wins, one of which is an FBS team and another over a top 25 FCS team) should definitely be good enough for a seed, I'm putting myself in the committee's shoes and trying to both poke holes in our resume and elevate other teams ahead of us in the top 8.

Is there a scenario in which we are playing in the first weekend? If so, here are the teams that will / could be placed ahead of us --

Sacramento St (10-0)
Montana St (9-1)
Weber St (8-2)
Richmond (8-2)
W&M (9-1)
South Dakota St (10-1)
North Dakota St (8-2)
Samford (9-1)
Furman (8-2)
Incarnate Word (9-1)

The way I see it, it's 11 teams for 8 spots. Here's who we know will be seeded regardless of this weekend's results:

Sacramento St (10-0)
South Dakota St (10-1)
Montana St (9-1)

Now, it's 8 teams for 5 spots.

NDSU plays at home against UND (a good team), but will likely win. They are a seed.

Now, it's 7 teams for 4 spots.

Samford plays at home against Mercer (another good team). This will be a tough one, especially as Mercer is playing for their playoff lives, but if Samford wins, they could be a top four seed. Even with a loss, at 9-2, they might be a seed. Let's put them in.

Now, it's 6 teams for 3 spots.

Richmond and W&M play each other this weekend. If Richmond wins, both are 9-2 and there's an outside chance both could be seeded. HC fans definitely want W&M to win. Regardless, one of these teams is going to be a seed, so for the purposes of this exercise we will slide one in.

Now, it's 5 teams for 2 spots.

Furman (8-2)
Incarnate Word (9-1)
Weber St (8-2)
Holy Cross (10-0)
Richmond or W&M

Assuming Furman beats Wofford, they're 9-2 with losses to Clemson and top five Samford.
Assuming Weber beats Northern Arizona, they're 9-2 with losses to likely seeds Sac St and Montana St, but a blowout win over Utah St.
Assuming Incarnate Word beats Northwestern St, they're 10-1 with FBS win over Nevada, but a conference loss to fringe playoff team SE Louisiana.

Basically, I'm not sure it's as cut and dry as we might think that a win against Georgetown and a perfect 11-0 regular season is automatically going to give us a seed.

[uofmman1122]

Genuinely curious, has there ever been an undefeated team from any conference that didn't get a seed since the expansion?

Maybe there weren't any scenarios exactly like HC's right now, but I would be shocked if they didn't at least get #8 just out of principle. lol

If they don't, that says a lot about what the committee thinks of the conferences and SOS, and I might be pretty worried if I were a Fordham fan.

[crusader11]

Genuinely curious, has there ever been an undefeated team from any conference that didn't get a seed since the expansion?


It's never happened.

[uofmman1122]

It's never happened.
That's what I thought. I would honestly be shocked if HC didn't get a seed at 11-0.

[Chalupa Batman]

I think Holy Cross can feel pretty confident in getting a seed if they beat Georgetown. The Merrimack win is decent, the Yale & Harvard wins are both solid, the FBS win over Buffalo is good, and the Fordham win is good too. That OOC schedule is good enough I'd be surprised if the Crusaders didn't get at least a 7 or 8 seed, maybe even a 6.

[crusader11]

Yes, think HC is safe...but just was looking at things closer and don't believe it to be a guarantee.

If it's all chalk the final week (and W&M beats Richmond), my guess is that Richmond, Furman, and UIW are the ones left out.

[kab]

If a coin flip causes a good team to be left out of the playoffs the committee needs to be fired

[MSUBobcat]

If a coin flip causes a good team to be left out of the playoffs the committee needs to be fired

The committee didn't come up with the coin flip rule. We can thank the OVC for that bull****. What makes it even more egregious is the 2 teams that will be tied for first didn't even play each other. If UT-Martin wins the coin flip and gets the autobid, they are absolutely stealing a bid from a better team.

[uofmman1122]

The committee didn't come up with the coin flip rule. We can thank the OVC for that bull****. What makes it even more egregious is the 2 teams that will be tied for first didn't even play each other. If UT-Martin wins the coin flip and gets the autobid, they are absolutely stealing a bid from a better team.
People complain about the Big Sky's Sagarin tiebreaker, but it's so much better than this nonsense.

[WileECoyote06]

Yes, think HC is safe...but just was looking at things closer and don't believe it to be a guarantee.

If it's all chalk the final week (and W&M beats Richmond), my guess is that Richmond, Furman, and UIW are the ones left out.

Holy Cross will be the #4 seed. You heard it here first. xdrunkyx

[NY Crusader 2010]

Genuinely curious, has there ever been an undefeated team from any conference that didn't get a seed since the expansion?

Maybe there weren't any scenarios exactly like HC's right now, but I would be shocked if they didn't at least get #8 just out of principle. lol

If they don't, that says a lot about what the committee thinks of the conferences and SOS, and I might be pretty worried if I were a Fordham fan.

Colgate had a similar season to us in 2018, and they got a seed. 10-1 overall, 10-0 v. FCS

Only difference was that instead of a decent FBS win they had a close FBS loss against an Army team that was probably slightly better than the Buffalo team we beat this year. Colgate was absolutely more dominant in league play in 2018 compared to how we fared so far this year. Their only competitive game in the PL was Bob Chesney's first game as Holy Cross head coach up in Hamilton to open the season. 'Gate was up 24-0 in the third quarter and beat us 24-17.

[uofmman1122]

Colgate had a similar season to us in 2018, and they got a seed. 10-1 overall, 10-0 v. FCS

Only difference was that instead of a decent FBS win they had a close FBS loss against an Army team that was probably slightly better than the Buffalo team we beat this year. Colgate was absolutely more dominant in league play in 2018 compared to how we fared so far this year. Their only competitive game in the PL was Bob Chesney's first game as Holy Cross head coach up in Hamilton to open the season. 'Gate was up 24-0 in the third quarter and beat us 24-17.
Yeah, that makes sense.

I think you could maybe make an argument that Holy Cross isn't a top 8 team based on their performance this season relative to some other teams in the conversation, but I still think they're a lock for a seed. I'm very much the driver of the "records alone aren't everything" bus on here, but 11-0 has to mean something​. lol

[Professor Chaos]

This is correct. We lost both starting tackles, starting right guard, starting tight end, both starting DEs and two backups, and a starting DT within the first three weeks of the season. And lost to Texas A&M-Commerce without our starting QB. Everybody has injuries—some more than others. Some have the depth to overcome, many do not. But nobody feels sorry for you.
I've heard this mentioned by you a few times that you didn't have your starting QB for the A&M-Commerce game and I'm confused by it looking at SLU's game-by-game box scores. Sawyer had the majority of SLU's pass attempts in wins against UIW and JSU and he had all the pass attempts against Commerce. Johnson played against UIW but had only 3 pass attempts and 3 rush attempts. I have a hard time buying that him missing the Commerce game had such a big effect when SLU beat UIW primarily with Sawyer at QB.

[NY Crusader 2010]

Yeah, that makes sense.

I think you could maybe make an argument that Holy Cross isn't a top 8 team based on their performance this season relative to some other teams in the conversation, but I still think they're a lock for a seed. I'm very much the driver of the "records alone aren't everything" bus on here, but 11-0 has to mean something​. lol

In "real life", my objective opinion of Holy Cross right now is that we're probably somewhere in the ballpark of Top 12 - Top 15 or so in the country at this moment. From what I've seen, especially recently, I have a hard time believing that we're actually one of the 8 best teams in the country. But as far as seeding goes, if we beat the last place team in our league on Saturday we'll be 11-0 with an FBS win (probably a bowl team no less), a likely top 20 win if Fordham wins, likely a win against an Ivy co-champ (or even two) and possibly a win against the NEC champ (Merrimack not eligible for auto-bid though). So, yea we'll have earned the seed if we go 11-0, regardless of how it ultimately shakes out in December. We could lost 31-3 to Delaware in 2 1/2 weeks and I'll still stand by the fact that the seed was earned.

Assuming we're seeded, I'm guessing somewhere between #6 and #8. Don't see us meriting a higher seed than that.

[BeamMeUp]

Go Youngstown State Penguins!

[caribbeanhen]

In "real life", my objective opinion of Holy Cross right now is that we're probably somewhere in the ballpark of Top 12 - Top 15 or so in the country at this moment. From what I've seen, especially recently, I have a hard time believing that we're actually one of the 8 best teams in the country. But as far as seeding goes, if we beat the last place team in our league on Saturday we'll be 11-0 with an FBS win (probably a bowl team no less), a likely top 20 win if Fordham wins, likely a win against an Ivy co-champ (or even two) and possibly a win against the NEC champ (Merrimack not eligible for auto-bid though). So, yea we'll have earned the seed if we go 11-0, regardless of how it ultimately shakes out in December. We could lost 31-3 to Delaware in 2 1/2 weeks and I'll still stand by the fact that the seed was earned.

Assuming we're seeded, I'm guessing somewhere between #6 and #8. Don't see us meriting a higher seed than that.

if Delaware gets the opportunity to play Holy Cross it will be a lot closer than 31-3 ... toss up game

[NY Crusader 2010]

if Delaware gets the opportunity to play Holy Cross it will be a lot closer than 31-3 ... toss up game

I'd expect a much closer game too. Probably Hens -3.5 in Worcester. Was throwing out a hypothetical. Because you know if we do end up getting shut down by a good team in an unfavorable matchup (i.e. a team that can torch our secondary like Fordham did, and who can also put a stop to our running game), people on here will be chirping about how we were so overrated and never should've gotten a seed and how the Patriot League stinks and how our Ivy League wins really didn't mean anything because the Ivy to some on here might as well be the Pioneer League, and how the FCS playoff system should get rid of auto-bids for the lesser conferences, etc. etc.

[katss07]

I've heard this mentioned by you a few times that you didn't have your starting QB for the A&M-Commerce game and I'm confused by it looking at SLU's game-by-game box scores. Sawyer had the majority of SLU's pass attempts in wins against UIW and JSU and he had all the pass attempts against Commerce. Johnson played against UIW but had only 3 pass attempts and 3 rush attempts. I have a hard time buying that him missing the Commerce game had such a big effect when SLU beat UIW primarily with Sawyer at QB.
And he’s got 17 of their 22 attempts tonight.

[Chalupa Batman]

I'd expect a much closer game too. Probably Hens -3.5 in Worcester. Was throwing out a hypothetical. Because you know if we do end up getting shut down by a good team in an unfavorable matchup (i.e. a team that can torch our secondary like Fordham did, and who can also put a stop to our running game), people on here will be chirping about how we were so overrated and never should've gotten a seed and how the Patriot League stinks and how our Ivy League wins really didn't mean anything because the Ivy to some on here might as well be the Pioneer League, and how the FCS playoff system should get rid of auto-bids for the lesser conferences, etc. etc.

I think the only teams that are unfavorable matchups for Holy Cross are the current top 3 (SDSU, Sac State, Montana State), and NDSU & Weber if they’re clicking. But on the right day HC can hang with NDSU & Weber. Every other team would be in a dogfight with the Crusaders.

[McCowboys]

Add Southeastern Louisiana Lions as the autobid from the Southland Conference.
This should secure two bids for the SLC.

[LionUp]

I've heard this mentioned by you a few times that you didn't have your starting QB for the A&M-Commerce game and I'm confused by it looking at SLU's game-by-game box scores. Sawyer had the majority of SLU's pass attempts in wins against UIW and JSU and he had all the pass attempts against Commerce. Johnson played against UIW but had only 3 pass attempts and 3 rush attempts. I have a hard time buying that him missing the Commerce game had such a big effect when SLU beat UIW primarily with Sawyer at QB.

Wasn’t the QB that cost us against Commerce, it was just plain out bad execution and not being coached up for a good effort by Commerce.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[atthewbon]

I'm guessing its just the person running the social media page and author who don't fully understand how the fcs playoffs and bid process work. I wouldn't be surprised if FAMU gets in at 9-2 but I doubt they are guaranteed with a win. Any team with a chance to make the playoff is given the chance to put a bid in, it does not guarantee anything.

https://www.wctv.tv/2022/11/18/miranda-investigating-famu-footballs-odds-making-fcs-playoffs-second-straight-year/

The local CBS station seems to have a better idea of FAMU's chances. I agree with Sam Herder I think they have a shot but will need some help.

[lionsrking2]

I've heard this mentioned by you a few times that you didn't have your starting QB for the A&M-Commerce game and I'm confused by it looking at SLU's game-by-game box scores. Sawyer had the majority of SLU's pass attempts in wins against UIW and JSU and he had all the pass attempts against Commerce. Johnson played against UIW but had only 3 pass attempts and 3 rush attempts. I have a hard time buying that him missing the Commerce game had such a big effect when SLU beat UIW primarily with Sawyer at QB.

The running threat of Cephus Johnson wasn't available against Commerce which could/would have made a huge difference in that game the way they were playing us defensively. We lost by three and bogged down several times in plus territory because we didn't have the QB run option available. Cephus got hurt in the UIW game. Eli came in and played lights out, but comparing the two games is apples and oranges. If we wouldn't have had Cephus at Jacksonville State we probably don't win that game. Each week is different depending on the opponent and not having both available hinders our offense.

[FUBeAR]

https://www.wctv.tv/2022/11/18/miranda-investigating-famu-footballs-odds-making-fcs-playoffs-second-straight-year/

The local CBS station seems to have a better idea of FAMU's chances. I agree with Sam Herder I think they have a shot but will need some help.”Investigating” seems to be an odd word choice for the 1st word in their headline. Doesn’t it?

Almost seems like there might be some wrong-doing involved that needs journalistic exposure if, say, the Rattlers don’t get a bid.

[Professor Chaos]

https://www.wctv.tv/2022/11/18/miranda-investigating-famu-footballs-odds-making-fcs-playoffs-second-straight-year/

The local CBS station seems to have a better idea of FAMU's chances. I agree with Sam Herder I think they have a shot but will need some help.
"Need some help" is an understatement I think. WrenFGun broke down the list of games with bubble implications really well on the first page of this thread:



For the final 6 spots, lets look at teams LIKELY to win and in:

UNH[19] @ Maine -- It's a rivalry game, but Maine is 2-7. UNH should win this game.
Chattanooga [20] @ WCU -- Western Carolina is at home and 5-5, but Chattanooga should win this game.
SLU already won this one - SELA [21] @ Nicholls State -- SELA is certainly favored to win this game, but Nicholls is a decent team and has only one head scratching loss this year.
Delaware [22] @ Villanova -- Should Delaware be favored to win this game? Probably. Have they choked it away time and time again? Yes.

Not favored to win, but would be close to a lock if they win:


Mercer @ Samford -- Mercer has no good wins this season, but this would be a GREAT one.
UC Davis @ Sac State -- UC Davis has the toughest schedule in FCS. If they get to 7 DI wins, they're in, and depending on madness, could be a real candidate at 6 DI wins.
Montana @ Montana State -- Cole Johnson is on crutches for Montana. It's a must have.
North Dakota @ NDSU -- North Dakota wins this game and they're a lock at 8 DI wins.

--

If none of those upsets happen, we're looking at two spots remaining for bids (three if UTM loses coin flip). Here are how I'd consider the teams based on likely outcome:

1. North Dakota [7 DI wins, beat Northern Iowa, Youngstown State and potential playoff team Abilene Christian]
2. Fordham [9 DI wins, near FBS upset over a very good Ohio team, nearly beat undefeated Holy Cross]
3. Idaho [7 DI wins, two FBS losses, win over Montana, close one to Sac State]
4. Austin Peay [7 DI wins, two FBS losses, beat EKU]
5. Eastern Kentucky [7 DI wins, beat SEMO and an FBS team, lost to Austin Peay]
6. FAMU [9 DI wins, none of them good]

The real question here is where the "likely winners" slot in if they lose [so UNH, Chattanooga, Delaware and SELA]. SELA would have 7 DI wins and a great win over UIW, UNH would have two good wins over Rhode Island and Elon and two questionable losses to Maine and NCCU, but would finish two wins ahead of Delaware in the CAA if they also lost. I think Delaware and Chattanooga are both LOSE and OUT situations given they'd close their seasons 1-3.
So with SLU's win there's 5 spots left for all those teams (4 if UTM wins the OVC coin toss). FAMU would need a boatload of help IMO.

[UNHWildcat18]

"Need some help" is an understatement I think. WrenFGun broke down the list of games with bubble implications really well on the first page of this thread:


So with SLU's win there's 5 spots left for all those teams (4 if UTM wins the OVC coin toss). FAMU would need a boatload of help IMO.


Ah sweet innocent Professor Chaos......FAMU is already a shoe in. It's the other 7 teams looking at the 4 spots....

[lionsrking2]

"Need some help" is an understatement I think. WrenFGun broke down the list of games with bubble implications really well on the first page of this thread:


So with SLU's win there's 5 spots left for all those teams (4 if UTM wins the OVC coin toss). FAMU would need a boatload of help IMO.

The boatload of help is the committee. They can do whatever they want. They did last year.

[ming01]

Dont see FAMU getting in this year. Much larger bubble. Just because it happened last year, doesnt mean it will this year.

[lionsrking2]

Wasn’t the QB that cost us against Commerce, it was just plain out bad execution and not being coached up for a good effort by Commerce.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Didn't say the QB position cost us, but not having Cephus was a big hindrance in that game. It limited what we could do offensively vs a defensive style that dictated the QB run option, especially when Eli's accuracy was off that day. It was a 3-point game as it was and we didn't score twice when we drove it in plus territory.

[Gil Dobie]

The boatload of help is the committee. They can do whatever they want.

Exactly.

[FUBeAR]

The boatload of help is the committee. They can do whatever they want. They did last year.
Yep - all they need to do is provide that taller box, y’know.

[Anthony215]

So if GW knocks off A&T does FAMU get a at large bid as the HBCU representative? Or does the committee look at their JSU loss as the big one which keeps them out regardless?

[Professor Chaos]

Ah sweet innocent Professor Chaos......FAMU is already a shoe in. It's the other 7 teams looking at the 4 spots....


The boatload of help is the committee. They can do whatever they want. They did last year.
I think you guys are putting way too much stock into what they did last year. I mentioned it earlier but in 2019 they had an 8-3 South Carolina St team out of the MEAC with a decent resume and left them out. Being an HBCU team on the bubble doesn't (and shouldn't) necessarily get you special treatment.

[atthewbon]

"Need some help" is an understatement I think. WrenFGun broke down the list of games with bubble implications really well on the first page of this thread:


So with SLU's win there's 5 spots left for all those teams (4 if UTM wins the OVC coin toss). FAMU would need a boatload of help IMO.

Yea I don't think its likely but I think FAMU would get in over 7-4 Eastern Kentucky or Austin Peay and then with one or two upsets (pending coin flip) from the top group or Idaho, it may be enough, assuming there aren't any upsets in the second group. Not likely but not crazy either. Montana losing would be interesting at 7-4, with their best win being Portland st, I don't think they should make it over FAMU or any of the other teams from the bottom list, but it wouldn't shock me.

[caribbeanhen]

Celebration Bowl and it's not even close. My rooms are booked already and I bought tickets just in case I can't get some from the school's allotment.

FCS Playoffs: The History & Possibilities Of Neutral-Site Bowl GamesThe early days of what is now the FCS Playoffs combined bowl games with a tournament format. Would it work in a modern context?Nov 16, 2022 by Kyle Kensing



(https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.flofootball.com%2Farti cles%2F8888618-fcs-playoffs-the-history-possibilities-of-neutral-site-bowl-games&text=FCS%20Playoffs%3A%20The%20History%20%26%20Pos sibilities%20Of%20Neutral-Site%20Bowl%20Games)


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https://d2779tscntxxsw.cloudfront.net/637681ffd504c.png?width=650&quality=80

[caribbeanhen]

Coyote06

that picture up there is from the 1969 Boardwalk Bowl

Delaware vs NC Central

you could have your cake and eat it to with a little creativity

winner of Celebration Bowl advances in FCS playoffs....

[FUBeAR]

So if GW knocks off A&T does FAMU get a at large bid as the HBCU representative? Or does the committee look at their JSU loss as the big one which keeps them out regardless?
Big South / Soon-to-be CAA HBCU NC A&T @ 7-4 (with a lower division win over Edward Waters) does not get an At-Large bid.

SWAC HBCU FAMU is IN @ 9-2 (with a lower division win over Albany state) w/win over Bethune-Cookman, regardless of outcome of NC A&T @ Gardner-Webb game. Score of Jackson State game is relatively insignificant and very low strength of schedule is largely irrelevant.

[FUBeAR]

Coyote06

that picture up there is from the 1969 Boardwalk Bowl

Delaware vs NC Central

you could have your cake and eat it to with a little creativity

winner of Celebration Bowl advances in FCS playoffs....LOVE IT!!

Hmmm??….Could the Celebration Bowl become more inclusive - perhaps expanding to include OVC and CAA Teams as those are/will be the Conference ‘homes’ of HBCU’s Tennessee State and NC A&T/Hampton, respectively?

So those 4 Conferences (Pod1) Top 4 Teams (1/Conf) Playoff to get to the Celebration Bowl in Atlanta
Pod2 - 3 Conferences - SoCon, Southland, PFL - Top 4 (1/Conf +1 AtLarge) Playoff to get to the Elvis Bowl in Memphis
Pod3 - 3 Conferences - Big Sky, MVFC, WAC/ASUN - Top 4 Playoff to get to the Wheat Bowl in Denver
Pos 4 - 3 Conferences - Ivy, NEC, PL - Top 4 Playoff to get to the Empire Bowl in the Meadowlands

16 Teams -13 Champions / 3 AtLarge
1st round campus sites by ‘bid’ - week after T’Giving week
2nd round “Bowl” sites
Semis & Championship Game all in Orlando over a 9 day period (max)

Beautiful!

[lionsrking2]

I think you guys are putting way too much stock into what they did last year. I mentioned it earlier but in 2019 they had an 8-3 South Carolina St team out of the MEAC with a decent resume and left them out. Being an HBCU team on the bubble doesn't (and shouldn't) necessarily get you special treatment.
I have no clue what’s going to happen, other than the committee will do what they want, and at 9-2 and precedent from last year, FAMU is alive and well for consideration. I agree they shouldn’t be but I for one won’t surprised when we are matched up with them again.

[ysubigred]

Well crap.. playoffs are upon us.

Looking at the projected field we see the usual weak sisterer of the poor.

If 1FCS wants a respectfull playoffs, need to stop these auto bids and get the best 24 teams and seed them according to a criteria set by the NCAA. Let each conference reward their Champs. Maybe these conferences will toughen up the schedule.

Nothing against Dayton they did play the Guins.. but they'd finish behind WIU in the MVFC.

Going to be fun watching the Bizon get another ring..


Sent from my SM-G990U using Tapatalk

[Gil Dobie]

I think you guys are putting way too much stock into what they did last year. I mentioned it earlier but in 2019 they had an 8-3 South Carolina St team out of the MEAC with a decent resume and left them out. Being an HBCU team on the bubble doesn't (and shouldn't) necessarily get you special treatment.

It's not just last year. Teams have made the cut with a good-looking W-L records over teams with stronger SOS, but a few less wins. I won't be surprised if FAMU is in, and I won't be surprised if they are not in. There are members of the committee that do not see things the way most of us on AGS see things.

[caribbeanhen]

LOVE IT!!

Hmmm??….Could the Celebration Bowl become more inclusive - perhaps expanding to include OVC and CAA Teams as those are/will be the Conference ‘homes’ of HBCU’s Tennessee State and NC A&T/Hampton, respectively?

So those 4 Conferences (Pod1) Top 4 Teams (1/Conf) Playoff to get to the Celebration Bowl in Atlanta
Pod2 - 3 Conferences - SoCon, Southland, PFL - Top 4 (1/Conf +1 AtLarge) Playoff to get to the Elvis Bowl in Memphis
Pod3 - 3 Conferences - Big Sky, MVFC, WAC/ASUN - Top 4 Playoff to get to the Wheat Bowl in Denver
Pos 4 - 3 Conferences - Ivy, NEC, PL - Top 4 Playoff to get to the Empire Bowl in the Meadowlands

16 Teams -13 Champions / 3 AtLarge
1st round campus sites by ‘bid’ - week after T’Giving week
2nd round “Bowl” sites
Semis & Championship Game all in Orlando over a 9 day period (max)

Beautiful!

I’m liking the creativity here!

[Professor Chaos]

It's not just last year. Teams have made the cut with a good-looking W-L records over teams with stronger SOS, but a few less wins. I won't be surprised if FAMU is in, and I won't be surprised if they are not in. There are members of the committee that do not see things the way most of us on AGS see things.
Yes in years like last year where teams like 6-5 UNI were getting in. It looks likely that there will be enough 8+ win teams in the Big Sky, CAA, MVFC, and SOCON that there will be two at-large spots at most available for 7 win teams from the stronger conferences or 8+ win teams from the weaker conferences (not including SEMO).

[Gil Dobie]

Yes in years like last year where teams like 6-5 UNI were getting in. It looks likely that there will be enough 8+ win teams in the Big Sky, CAA, MVFC, and SOCON that there will be two at-large spots at most available for 7 win teams from the stronger conferences or 8+ win teams from the weaker conferences (not including SEMO).

It's politics man, you have more faith in the committee than I do.

[ElCid]

Well crap.. playoffs are upon us.

Looking at the projected field we see the usual weak sisterer of the poor.

If 1FCS wants a respectfull playoffs, need to stop these auto bids and get the best 24 teams and seed them according to a criteria set by the NCAA. Let each conference reward their Champs. Maybe these conferences will toughen up the schedule.

Nothing against Dayton they did play the Guins.. but they'd finish behind WIU in the MVFC.

Going to be fun watching the Bizon get another ring..


Sent from my SM-G990U using Tapatalk

Eh, I'm on record as liking the conf auto bids. You win your conf, you get a shot. Now, runner ups of weaker conferences, with extremely weak SOSs?........ They shouldn't be given a huge amount of consideration. Every season is different though. A couple examples this year are I think Fordham should be given a look. FAMU should be given a look. Doesn't mean either get in. Have to look at the SOSs. But I really dislike the idea of excluding entire conferences. Same could then be said for BB tournament. And it would be wholly subjective rather than maintaining at least one clearcut objective criteria. That being, including the conf champs.

[NY Crusader 2010]

Well crap.. playoffs are upon us.

Looking at the projected field we see the usual weak sisterer of the poor.

If 1FCS wants a respectfull playoffs, need to stop these auto bids and get the best 24 teams and seed them according to a criteria set by the NCAA. Let each conference reward their Champs. Maybe these conferences will toughen up the schedule.

Nothing against Dayton they did play the Guins.. but they'd finish behind WIU in the MVFC.

Going to be fun watching the Bizon get another ring..


Sent from my SM-G990U using Tapatalk

Well, auto-bids will always be a thing unless somehow the FCS postseason tournament goes outside the NCAA umbrella, like FBS. Any NCAA tournament provides specific criteria when it comes to what a conference needs to be granted an auto-bid (ex. minimum number of teams, minimum # of all-sports members, etc.) And every NCAA postseason tournament MUST include at least as many at-large participants as auto-bids. So if 10 conferences have auto-bids, the tournament field must be a minimum of 20 teams for example.

[ysubigred]

Well, auto-bids will always be a thing unless somehow the FCS postseason tournament goes outside the NCAA umbrella, like FBS. Any NCAA tournament provides specific criteria when it comes to what a conference needs to be granted an auto-bid (ex. minimum number of teams, minimum # of all-sports members, etc.) And every NCAA postseason tournament MUST include at least as many at-large participants as auto-bids. So if 10 conferences have auto-bids, the tournament field must be a minimum of 20 teams for example.Good analysis NY.. I believe the NCAA needs restructuring in football. BCS has it's gaps and so does FCS. Since there's so many conference auto bids.. maybe FCS takes the best 4 teams for a playoff the rest of the teams 6 Ws and up pair up for bowl games? Almost puked typing that but something got to give with this 24 team field.

Or fix these gaps by bringing back all the BCS teams with no fans or hopes to win a NC to FCS. Same for FCS, move the weaker teams down..

Just thoughts..

Sent from my SM-G990U using Tapatalk

[lionsrking2]

Good analysis NY.. I believe the NCAA needs restructuring in football. BCS has it's gaps and so does FCS. Since there's so many conference auto bids.. maybe FCS takes the best 4 teams for a playoff the rest of the teams 6 Ws and up pair up for bowl games? Almost puked typing that but something got to give with this 24 team field.

Or fix these gaps by bringing back all the BCS teams with no fans or hopes to win a NC to FCS. Same for FCS, move the weaker teams down..

Just thoughts..

Sent from my SM-G990U using Tapatalk

It's fine like it is. I would expand to 32 but it's fine the way it is.

[ElCid]

Well, auto-bids will always be a thing unless somehow the FCS postseason tournament goes outside the NCAA umbrella, like FBS. Any NCAA tournament provides specific criteria when it comes to what a conference needs to be granted an auto-bid (ex. minimum number of teams, minimum # of all-sports members, etc.) And every NCAA postseason tournament MUST include at least as many at-large participants as auto-bids. So if 10 conferences have auto-bids, the tournament field must be a minimum of 20 teams for example.

I've asked this before. What makes you think that rules can't be changed? They made the rule, they can change it. I bet if the FCS schools went to them to get a new rule just for the FCS playoffs they could change it as easily as they made the rule. I personally don't like more. Less is better. Save just a few extra spots for those conference champ close calls. Coming in third, or fourth in your conference already says you can't even beat the teams in your own conf. Why demonstrate this again in the playoffs?

[taper]

Well, auto-bids will always be a thing unless somehow the FCS postseason tournament goes outside the NCAA umbrella, like FBS. Any NCAA tournament provides specific criteria when it comes to what a conference needs to be granted an auto-bid (ex. minimum number of teams, minimum # of all-sports members, etc.) And every NCAA postseason tournament MUST include at least as many at-large participants as auto-bids. So if 10 conferences have auto-bids, the tournament field must be a minimum of 20 teams for example.
Will people please stop repeating this lie about at larges? Simply not true. The rule does not exist. Lacrosse has more autos than at large, so there's your proof.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

I have 3 wishes for tomorrow's playoff selection show....

Holy Cross is a seed, Fordham receives an at-large, Youngstown State receives an at-large...

I think the trifecta is possible...probable? maybe....

[BeamMeUp]

I have 3 wishes for tomorrow's playoff selection show....

Holy Cross is a seed, Fordham receives an at-large, Youngstown State receives an at-large...

I think the trifecta is possible...probable? maybe....
Yes... Go Penguins!

[Chalupa Batman]

Eastern Kentucky should be getting the WAC/Sun autobid, right?