Professor Chaos
October 24th, 2022, 10:31 AM
Only 4 weeks left in the regular season so I put together a list of teams in playoff contention (in my opinion) and handicapped their odds based primarily on the Massey projections for them to win/lose their remaining games. You can see all of Massey's updated numbers at https://masseyratings.com/cf2022/fcs/ratings. The numbers in brackets behind each team is Massey's expected remaining wins and losses and the percentage in parenthesis behind each remaining game is Massey's percentage that each team wins that respective game.
Big Sky
Massey has Sac St with the best probability at 10-1 and Montana St and Weber St at 9-2 so seems like they are all pretty safely in since 8 wins in the Big Sky should get you in. Montana is an interesting one - if they win the two they should win and lose the other two is 7-4 with no good wins enough to get them in? I'd say probably but they'd be at the mercy of the rest of the bubble. We'll find out whether Idaho is for real over the next 3 weeks here but I'd think if they can win 1 of these next 3 they'll find their way in. UC Davis probably needs to win out which is a tall order with their final 2 games. I'm going to say the Big Sky gets 5 this year but the bubble is looking tough so it could drop to 4 depending on what happens elsewhere.
Should be in
Montana St 7-1 (5-0) [2.13/0/87] - @NAU (77%), @Cal Poly (84%), Montana (52%)
Sac St 7-0 (4-0) [2.83/1.17] - Idaho (75%), @Weber St (51%), @PSU (84%), UC Davis (73%)
Weber St 6-1 (3-1) [2.93/1.07] - Montana (60%), Sac St (49%), Idaho St (97%), @NAU (87%)
Work left to do
Idaho 5-2 (4-0) [2.15/1.85] - @Sac St (25%), EWU (58%), UC Davis (51%), @Idaho St (81%)
Montana 5-2 (2-2) [2.53/1.47] - @Weber St (40%), Cal Poly (94%), EWU (71%), @Montana St (48%)
In the hunt
UC Davis 3-4 (2-2) [2.53/1.47] - Cal Poly (87%), Idaho St (90%), @Idaho (49%), @Sac St (27%)
CAA
This is a mess to try to figure out. About the only team I think can be feeling very comfortable is William @ Mary with a good shot to get to 8 wins by 11/5. Even though Delaware is 6-1 they've got a real tough finish to the season to navigate as does UNH - both are probably fine at 7-4 but need to get to 8 wins to get locked in. Massey likes Richmond more than I do but I see URI, Richmond, and Elon all finishing around that 7-4 mark making it super tough to sort them out. Nova could still play spoiler but their last two will be tough and they'll need to at least split them to have a chance. If Monmouth can upset Delaware in Newark they could crash the party at 7-4 as well. I'm gonna throw a dart and say the CAA gets 4 in right now but who those are outside of W&M and probably Delaware I have no idea.
Should be in
William & Mary 6-1 (3-1) [2.54/1.46] - URI (68%), @Hampton (86%), Nova (58%), @Richmond (41%)
Work left to do
Delaware 6-1 (3-1) [2.05/1.95] - @Elon (48%), Monmouth (64%), Richmond (48%), @Nova (45%)
New Hampshire 6-2 (5-0) [1.34/1.66] @Richmond (23%), URI (54%), @Maine (57%)
Rhode Island 5-2 (3-1) [2.09/1.91] - @W&M (32%), Maine (67%), @UNH (46%), Albany (65%)
Richmond 5-2 (3-1) [2.64/1.36] - @Maine (75%), UNH (77%), @Delaware (52%), William & Mary (59%)
Elon 5-3 (3-2) [2.08/0.92] - Delaware (52%), Albany (73%), @Hampton (84%)
In the hunt
Villanova 4-3 (2-2) [2.65/1.35] - Hampton (89%), @Towson (79%), @W&M (42%), Delaware (55%)
Monmouth 4-4 (2-3) [1.85/1.15] Towson (73%), @Delaware (36%), SBU (76%)
MVFC
It's an unusually weak year for the MVFC in terms of playoff teams. SDSU is the only one that can feel too comfortable. NDSU should be good shape but I don't know if I like them as much as Massey does in their final 4. Illinois St has two winnable games and two tough ones left but just need 2 to get in I think. SIU and UND look like they'll have a tricky path to 7 wins but doable. YSU doesn't have any super tough games left but they'll need to win 3 of 4 which might be a tall order. UNI will need to win out including a win over SDSU so seems unlikely. The bubble is looking pretty tough this year so I'm gonna say the MVFC is tracking towards 3 bids right now with 4 still a possibility.
Should be in
SDSU 7-1 (5-0) [2.50/0.50] - Indiana St (94%), @UNI (64%), Illinois St (92%)
Work left to do
NDSU 5-2 (3-1) [3.28/0.72] - Illinois St (92%), @WIU (92%), @SIU (65%), UND (78%)
Illinois St 5-2 (3-1) [1.55/2.45] - @NDSU (8%), YSU (58%), @SDSU (8%), WIU (81%)
SIU 5-3 (4-1) [1.50/1.50] - UNI (54%), NDSU (35%), @YSU (61%)
UND 4-3 (3-2) [2.24/1.76] - ACU (75%), @Indiana St (68%), USD (60%), @NDSU (22%)
In the hunt
YSU 4-3 (2-2) [1.70/2.30] - USD (48%), @Illinois St (42%), @Missouri St (40%), SIU (39%)
UNI 4-4 (3-2) [1.39/1.61] - @SIU (46), SDSU (36%), @USD (58%)
SOCON
Four SOCON teams already have 7 wins and they're the only teams with any playoff chances. I think UTC should be feeling more comfortable than Samford in that first group - if Samford drops one of these next 2 those last 2 are going to be tough and 7-4 might be an iffy spot losing 3 of your last 4. Mercer should be ok needing to win just one of those last 2 (assuming they beat VMI) to get to 8 wins but Furman probably needs to take one of these next 2 tough ones in order to avoid a sweat on Selection Sunday. I think the bubble will be tight enough where only 3 of these SOCON teams get in but if they get some help all 4 could certainly get in.
Should be in
Chattanooga 6-1 (4-0) [2.89/1.11] - @Furman (57%), @Citadel (89%), Samford (68%), @WCU (76%)
Samford 6-1 (4-0) [2.27/1.73] - @Citadel (69%), VMI (81%), @UTC (32%), Mercer (44%)
Work left to do
Mercer 6-2 (4-1) [2.03/0.97] - @VMI (84%), Furman (64%), @Samford (56%)
Furman 6-2 (4-1) [1.69/1.31] - UTC (43%), @Mercer (36%), Wofford (90%)
OVC and Southland
Lumping these two together even though they have separate autos (at least this year). Both UIW and SEMO have what seems to be pretty clear paths to 9 wins. SLU and UTM are a in a bit tougher of a spot. Both played 2 FBS games (losing both) so it'll be interesting to see how the committee treats they if they end up at 7-4 (7-2 vs FCS). I think all 4 of these teams get in. There's still a slight possibility that someone else from these two conferences snatches the auto but it's very unlikely any other OVC or SLC teams will be in playoff consideration.
Should be in
Incarnate Word 7-1 (2-1) [2.41/0.59] - @TAMU-CC (66%), HCU (92%), NWSU (83%)
SEMO 6-1 (2-0) [3.03/0.97] - EKU (61%), @TSU (73%), @EIU (78%), Murray St (90%)
Work left to do
SLU 4-3 (1-1) [3.24/0.76] - McNeese (75%), @Lamar (88%), NWSU (87%), @Nicholls (73%)
UT Martin 4-3 (3-0) [3.16/0.84] - @HCU (90%), KSU (70%), @TSU (72%), EIU (84%)
Others
There will probably be 3 autos (from the Patiot, ASUN/WAC, and Big South) from teams in this group so that will thin the at-large candidates considerably. Fordham probably has the best shot to get in outside of that since if they lose to Holy Cross but win out they'll be 9-2 with an FBS loss but with their best win only being Monmouth. I don't know how the WAC/ASUN auto works this year but if Austin Peay (minus their Alabama game) and SFA win out I'd assume one gets the auto and the other would probably be an at-large. The teams I listed "in the hunt" all are pretty longs shots IMO except that either Campbell or NC A&T will probably be the Big South auto. NC Central would be an intersting wild card - they're not in line for the Celebration Bowl as the MEAC champ right now but if they win out to get to 9-2 with wins over UNH and NC A&T (if those are both playoff teams) it would be tough to leave them out. Depending on what happens in the leagues listed above there may not be any spots for these teams so the bubble will play just as much of a role in their playoff fates as their own play will.
Should be in
Holy Cross 7-0 (3-0) [3.45/0.55] - Fordham (67%), Lehigh (97%), Bryant (89%), @Georgetown (92%)
Work left to do
Fordham 6-1 (3-0) [2.47/1.53] - @Holy Cross (33%), @Bucknell (76%), Lafayette (69%), Colgate (68%)
Austin Peay 5-2 (1-1) [2.02/1.98] - Jax St (63%), @UNA (73%), @KSU (66%), @Alabama (1%)
Stephen F Austin 5-3 (2-0) [1.75/1.25] - Utah Tech (75%), UCA (48%), @ACU (52%)
In the hunt
ACU 5-2 (2-0) [1.51/2.49] - @UND (25%), @Tarleton St (56%), @SHSU (20%), SFA (48%)
EKU 4-3 (1-1) [2.22/1.78] - @SEMO (39%), UCA (49%), @Jax St (43%), KSU (62%)
UCA 3-4 (2-0) [2.33/1/67] - UNA (73%), @EKU (51%), @SFA (52%), Jax St (57%)
Campbell 4-3 (2-0) [2.61/1.39] - @NC A&T (55%), @Bryant (66%), Gardner-Webb (51%), @Delaware St (89%)
NC Central 5-2 (1-1) [2.53/1.47] - @Delaware St (72%), Howard (70%), @Norfolk St (67%), @TTU (46%)
NC A&T 4-3 (2-0) [2.21/1.79] - Campbell (45%), Norfolk St (83%), CSU (62%), @Gardner-Webb (31%)
So there's 13 at-large available - this is where I think each league is at in terms of getting them (this excludes the auto so each of these leagues will have an additional playoff team):
Big Sky: 4
CAA: 3
MVFC: 2
SOCON: 2
OVC: 1
Southland: 1
The bubble looks tough this year but it usually seems to look tougher at this point in the season with 4 games left than it ends up being - each upset that happens in the last 4 weeks (which is bound to happen) softens it up so there's still plenty of opportunity for these projections to change a lot.
Next week I might put together a projected field and/or bracket but for now it's just a lot of guess-timating so I'm going to skip that this week. What do you think? See anything differently than me? Anyone I missed that you think will deserve consideration?
Big Sky
Massey has Sac St with the best probability at 10-1 and Montana St and Weber St at 9-2 so seems like they are all pretty safely in since 8 wins in the Big Sky should get you in. Montana is an interesting one - if they win the two they should win and lose the other two is 7-4 with no good wins enough to get them in? I'd say probably but they'd be at the mercy of the rest of the bubble. We'll find out whether Idaho is for real over the next 3 weeks here but I'd think if they can win 1 of these next 3 they'll find their way in. UC Davis probably needs to win out which is a tall order with their final 2 games. I'm going to say the Big Sky gets 5 this year but the bubble is looking tough so it could drop to 4 depending on what happens elsewhere.
Should be in
Montana St 7-1 (5-0) [2.13/0/87] - @NAU (77%), @Cal Poly (84%), Montana (52%)
Sac St 7-0 (4-0) [2.83/1.17] - Idaho (75%), @Weber St (51%), @PSU (84%), UC Davis (73%)
Weber St 6-1 (3-1) [2.93/1.07] - Montana (60%), Sac St (49%), Idaho St (97%), @NAU (87%)
Work left to do
Idaho 5-2 (4-0) [2.15/1.85] - @Sac St (25%), EWU (58%), UC Davis (51%), @Idaho St (81%)
Montana 5-2 (2-2) [2.53/1.47] - @Weber St (40%), Cal Poly (94%), EWU (71%), @Montana St (48%)
In the hunt
UC Davis 3-4 (2-2) [2.53/1.47] - Cal Poly (87%), Idaho St (90%), @Idaho (49%), @Sac St (27%)
CAA
This is a mess to try to figure out. About the only team I think can be feeling very comfortable is William @ Mary with a good shot to get to 8 wins by 11/5. Even though Delaware is 6-1 they've got a real tough finish to the season to navigate as does UNH - both are probably fine at 7-4 but need to get to 8 wins to get locked in. Massey likes Richmond more than I do but I see URI, Richmond, and Elon all finishing around that 7-4 mark making it super tough to sort them out. Nova could still play spoiler but their last two will be tough and they'll need to at least split them to have a chance. If Monmouth can upset Delaware in Newark they could crash the party at 7-4 as well. I'm gonna throw a dart and say the CAA gets 4 in right now but who those are outside of W&M and probably Delaware I have no idea.
Should be in
William & Mary 6-1 (3-1) [2.54/1.46] - URI (68%), @Hampton (86%), Nova (58%), @Richmond (41%)
Work left to do
Delaware 6-1 (3-1) [2.05/1.95] - @Elon (48%), Monmouth (64%), Richmond (48%), @Nova (45%)
New Hampshire 6-2 (5-0) [1.34/1.66] @Richmond (23%), URI (54%), @Maine (57%)
Rhode Island 5-2 (3-1) [2.09/1.91] - @W&M (32%), Maine (67%), @UNH (46%), Albany (65%)
Richmond 5-2 (3-1) [2.64/1.36] - @Maine (75%), UNH (77%), @Delaware (52%), William & Mary (59%)
Elon 5-3 (3-2) [2.08/0.92] - Delaware (52%), Albany (73%), @Hampton (84%)
In the hunt
Villanova 4-3 (2-2) [2.65/1.35] - Hampton (89%), @Towson (79%), @W&M (42%), Delaware (55%)
Monmouth 4-4 (2-3) [1.85/1.15] Towson (73%), @Delaware (36%), SBU (76%)
MVFC
It's an unusually weak year for the MVFC in terms of playoff teams. SDSU is the only one that can feel too comfortable. NDSU should be good shape but I don't know if I like them as much as Massey does in their final 4. Illinois St has two winnable games and two tough ones left but just need 2 to get in I think. SIU and UND look like they'll have a tricky path to 7 wins but doable. YSU doesn't have any super tough games left but they'll need to win 3 of 4 which might be a tall order. UNI will need to win out including a win over SDSU so seems unlikely. The bubble is looking pretty tough this year so I'm gonna say the MVFC is tracking towards 3 bids right now with 4 still a possibility.
Should be in
SDSU 7-1 (5-0) [2.50/0.50] - Indiana St (94%), @UNI (64%), Illinois St (92%)
Work left to do
NDSU 5-2 (3-1) [3.28/0.72] - Illinois St (92%), @WIU (92%), @SIU (65%), UND (78%)
Illinois St 5-2 (3-1) [1.55/2.45] - @NDSU (8%), YSU (58%), @SDSU (8%), WIU (81%)
SIU 5-3 (4-1) [1.50/1.50] - UNI (54%), NDSU (35%), @YSU (61%)
UND 4-3 (3-2) [2.24/1.76] - ACU (75%), @Indiana St (68%), USD (60%), @NDSU (22%)
In the hunt
YSU 4-3 (2-2) [1.70/2.30] - USD (48%), @Illinois St (42%), @Missouri St (40%), SIU (39%)
UNI 4-4 (3-2) [1.39/1.61] - @SIU (46), SDSU (36%), @USD (58%)
SOCON
Four SOCON teams already have 7 wins and they're the only teams with any playoff chances. I think UTC should be feeling more comfortable than Samford in that first group - if Samford drops one of these next 2 those last 2 are going to be tough and 7-4 might be an iffy spot losing 3 of your last 4. Mercer should be ok needing to win just one of those last 2 (assuming they beat VMI) to get to 8 wins but Furman probably needs to take one of these next 2 tough ones in order to avoid a sweat on Selection Sunday. I think the bubble will be tight enough where only 3 of these SOCON teams get in but if they get some help all 4 could certainly get in.
Should be in
Chattanooga 6-1 (4-0) [2.89/1.11] - @Furman (57%), @Citadel (89%), Samford (68%), @WCU (76%)
Samford 6-1 (4-0) [2.27/1.73] - @Citadel (69%), VMI (81%), @UTC (32%), Mercer (44%)
Work left to do
Mercer 6-2 (4-1) [2.03/0.97] - @VMI (84%), Furman (64%), @Samford (56%)
Furman 6-2 (4-1) [1.69/1.31] - UTC (43%), @Mercer (36%), Wofford (90%)
OVC and Southland
Lumping these two together even though they have separate autos (at least this year). Both UIW and SEMO have what seems to be pretty clear paths to 9 wins. SLU and UTM are a in a bit tougher of a spot. Both played 2 FBS games (losing both) so it'll be interesting to see how the committee treats they if they end up at 7-4 (7-2 vs FCS). I think all 4 of these teams get in. There's still a slight possibility that someone else from these two conferences snatches the auto but it's very unlikely any other OVC or SLC teams will be in playoff consideration.
Should be in
Incarnate Word 7-1 (2-1) [2.41/0.59] - @TAMU-CC (66%), HCU (92%), NWSU (83%)
SEMO 6-1 (2-0) [3.03/0.97] - EKU (61%), @TSU (73%), @EIU (78%), Murray St (90%)
Work left to do
SLU 4-3 (1-1) [3.24/0.76] - McNeese (75%), @Lamar (88%), NWSU (87%), @Nicholls (73%)
UT Martin 4-3 (3-0) [3.16/0.84] - @HCU (90%), KSU (70%), @TSU (72%), EIU (84%)
Others
There will probably be 3 autos (from the Patiot, ASUN/WAC, and Big South) from teams in this group so that will thin the at-large candidates considerably. Fordham probably has the best shot to get in outside of that since if they lose to Holy Cross but win out they'll be 9-2 with an FBS loss but with their best win only being Monmouth. I don't know how the WAC/ASUN auto works this year but if Austin Peay (minus their Alabama game) and SFA win out I'd assume one gets the auto and the other would probably be an at-large. The teams I listed "in the hunt" all are pretty longs shots IMO except that either Campbell or NC A&T will probably be the Big South auto. NC Central would be an intersting wild card - they're not in line for the Celebration Bowl as the MEAC champ right now but if they win out to get to 9-2 with wins over UNH and NC A&T (if those are both playoff teams) it would be tough to leave them out. Depending on what happens in the leagues listed above there may not be any spots for these teams so the bubble will play just as much of a role in their playoff fates as their own play will.
Should be in
Holy Cross 7-0 (3-0) [3.45/0.55] - Fordham (67%), Lehigh (97%), Bryant (89%), @Georgetown (92%)
Work left to do
Fordham 6-1 (3-0) [2.47/1.53] - @Holy Cross (33%), @Bucknell (76%), Lafayette (69%), Colgate (68%)
Austin Peay 5-2 (1-1) [2.02/1.98] - Jax St (63%), @UNA (73%), @KSU (66%), @Alabama (1%)
Stephen F Austin 5-3 (2-0) [1.75/1.25] - Utah Tech (75%), UCA (48%), @ACU (52%)
In the hunt
ACU 5-2 (2-0) [1.51/2.49] - @UND (25%), @Tarleton St (56%), @SHSU (20%), SFA (48%)
EKU 4-3 (1-1) [2.22/1.78] - @SEMO (39%), UCA (49%), @Jax St (43%), KSU (62%)
UCA 3-4 (2-0) [2.33/1/67] - UNA (73%), @EKU (51%), @SFA (52%), Jax St (57%)
Campbell 4-3 (2-0) [2.61/1.39] - @NC A&T (55%), @Bryant (66%), Gardner-Webb (51%), @Delaware St (89%)
NC Central 5-2 (1-1) [2.53/1.47] - @Delaware St (72%), Howard (70%), @Norfolk St (67%), @TTU (46%)
NC A&T 4-3 (2-0) [2.21/1.79] - Campbell (45%), Norfolk St (83%), CSU (62%), @Gardner-Webb (31%)
So there's 13 at-large available - this is where I think each league is at in terms of getting them (this excludes the auto so each of these leagues will have an additional playoff team):
Big Sky: 4
CAA: 3
MVFC: 2
SOCON: 2
OVC: 1
Southland: 1
The bubble looks tough this year but it usually seems to look tougher at this point in the season with 4 games left than it ends up being - each upset that happens in the last 4 weeks (which is bound to happen) softens it up so there's still plenty of opportunity for these projections to change a lot.
Next week I might put together a projected field and/or bracket but for now it's just a lot of guess-timating so I'm going to skip that this week. What do you think? See anything differently than me? Anyone I missed that you think will deserve consideration?