QUESTION ON POLL RELEVANCY - CAA FOCUSED

[MUHAWKS]

It seems like this year there is tons of parity and come playoff selection time, I am wondering how much you guys think the polls matter? This especially holds true for The CAA where there seem to be as many as 7 and perhaps 8 teams vying for what realistically may only be 3 or 4 spots. It begs the question I think we have spoke of in the past. To wit, early over ranking may help teams too much and vice versa.

Although it is way too early to really delve into and things may sort themselves out, there is a chance they do not. What does everyone think about polls when it comes to this? Not if you think they matter but do we think the committee thinks they matter? If there are 2-3 teams from same conference with very similar profiles lets call them 7-4 or 8-3 with 2-3 good wins, no bad losses, all d-1 wins etc. are the polls used you think?

[JSUSoutherner]

I'll just save you some time.

Monmouth ain't making the playoffs.

[FUBeAR]

It seems like this year there is tons of parity and come playoff selection time, I am wondering how much you guys think the polls matter? This especially holds true for The CAA where there seem to be as many as 7 and perhaps 8 teams vying for what realistically may only be 3 or 4 spots. It begs the question I think we have spoke of in the past. To wit, early over ranking may help teams too much and vice versa.

Although it is way too early to really delve into and things may sort themselves out, there is a chance they do not.

* What does everyone think about polls when it comes to this?
* Not if you think they matter but do we think the committee thinks they matter?
* If there are 2-3 teams from same conference with very similar profiles lets call them 7-4 or 8-3 with 2-3 good wins, no bad losses, all d-1 wins etc. are the polls used you think?
* They suck
* Yes, absolutely
* Without question

[ElCid]

I think it's funny to think that there are 7 or 8 worthy CAA teams. 4 maybe 5 is more realistic. And 2 maybe 3 spots, at best. But it's early. Just looking at the season to date.

[MR. CHICKEN]

I'll just save you some time.

Monmouth ain't making the playoffs.


xlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolx xlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolx xlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolx xlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolx......................... ....xnodx

[POD Knows]

I'll just save you some time.

Monmouth ain't making the playoffs.
😀 Close the thread.

[KPSUL]

In discussing the parity that currently exists between a majority of CAA teams you touch on how it affects poll voters. There are probably more CAA teams either ranked, or on the receiving votes list than is warranted. At this juncture it is to difficult to make clear distinctions between teams and we tend to rank to many. The issue is the same in the other very large conference, Big Sky, and to a lesser extent in the SOCON. But this problem will likely resolve itself as more and more conference games are played - the issue becomes less of a problem as the season moves on.

Being ranked in the twenties at the end of the regular season does not ensure playoff selection unless the team is also a conference champ/auto-bid. It is not uncommon to see several conference champions who will be playoff participants that are not in the Top 25 at the end of the season.

Should polls matter? Yes. Even with their issues of objectively.

[MR. CHICKEN]

 Close the thread.


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[ElCid]

In discussing the parity that currently exists between a majority of CAA teams you touch on how it affects poll voters. There are probably more CAA teams either ranked, or on the receiving votes list than is warranted. At this juncture it is to difficult to make clear distinctions between teams and we tend to rank to many. The issue is the same in the other very large conference, Big Sky, and to a lesser extent in the SOCON. But this problem will likely resolve itself as more and more conference games are played - the issue becomes less of a problem as the season moves on.

Being ranked in the twenties at the end of the regular season does not ensure playoff selection unless the team is also a conference champ/auto-bid. It is not uncommon to see several conference champions who will be playoff participants that are not in the Top 25 at the end of the season.

Should polls matter? Yes. Even with their issues of objectively.

That's pretty accurate.

[KPSUL]

xlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolx xlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolx xlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolx xlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolx......................... ....xnodx

Whoaa, hold on. The MU Hawks seem to be getting stronger each week.

[MR. CHICKEN]

32568


....IT COMES DOWN....TA AQ's........BODY UH WORK.........SKED STRENGTH FO' BUBBLES.......IFIN' YA HAVE AN' UNCLE MARTY.....&....UH HORSESHOE NECKLACE....:D........BRAWK!

[Professor Chaos]

It seems like this year there is tons of parity and come playoff selection time, I am wondering how much you guys think the polls matter? This especially holds true for The CAA where there seem to be as many as 7 and perhaps 8 teams vying for what realistically may only be 3 or 4 spots. It begs the question I think we have spoke of in the past. To wit, early over ranking may help teams too much and vice versa.

Although it is way too early to really delve into and things may sort themselves out, there is a chance they do not. What does everyone think about polls when it comes to this? Not if you think they matter but do we think the committee thinks they matter? If there are 2-3 teams from same conference with very similar profiles lets call them 7-4 or 8-3 with 2-3 good wins, no bad losses, all d-1 wins etc. are the polls used you think?
Watch this video (assuming you can handle the most boring/choppy narration in the world), it goes into detail about how the at-large teams are selected:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8FECEd5QPiA

The official criteria says they use only the FCS Coaches Poll among external polls but it has very little bearing on the outcome of selected teams if you look at the data (the AGS and STATS Polls are usually closer to predicting the field even though the Coaches Poll gets released the day after the field is announced). The committee actually does a poll amongst themselves during the season, so they have their own rankings. They used to release the top 10 in that poll to the public during the season - I think one year they might've done it three times - but they haven't done that since 2019 I believe. I think the external polls have little to no direct bearing on the playoff at-large selection or the seeds but they can have varying degrees of indirect influence depending on how much of a conspiracy theorist you want to be.

[MUHAWKS]

I'll just save you some time.

Monmouth ain't making the playoffs.

Well done! HAHAHA--

[MUHAWKS]

I think it's funny to think that there are 7 or 8 worthy CAA teams. 4 maybe 5 is more realistic. And 2 maybe 3 spots, at best. But it's early. Just looking at the season to date.

I do not think worthy really and I cannot change perception being reality. The reality is that if you are in The CAA and have 7-8 wins you are 100% vying for a spot.. I said 7-8 VYING-- W&N, Elon, UD, Richmond are 100% vying.. URI, Nova, Monmouth, UNH as well.. How it looks in 5 weeks who knows but its entirely possible that 2-3 teams are 8-3 with similar profiles and are left on the outside--

[MR. CHICKEN]

Whoaa, hold on. The MU Hawks seem to be getting stronger each week.

.......JOISY HAWKS....ARE IN DUH MIDDLE UH.....DEY'RE.....MUSH-PUPPY SKED........WHIFF BAD GUYS........LAYIN' IN WAIT.............BRAWK!

.......HENS TOO....HAVE HAD IT EASY...........THINGS 'BOUT TA GET DARK...................FO' SOME................xeekx...................AWK!


....AH WAS SAYIN' YES...TA FUNNY.....NOT YES....YER NOT GONNA..................DOODLE-DOO!

[MUHAWKS]

Whoaa, hold on. The MU Hawks seem to be getting stronger each week.

Regardless of my feelings, that was a hilarious comeback to me.. with that said I think we have a legit shot. Our offense is starting to gel and Our defense ay be finding an identity- we wont be great on D but we do not need to be.. I take every team seriously and do not think any games are automatic wins but we have a very good chance of having the URI and.or Delaware games matter very much in terms of getting in.. If we beat albany, SB, Towson and Maine that is 7-2-- split with URI/Del and its 8-3 with some good wins, and possibly no bad losses and close ones at that.. not saying this will happen but it is not like it is that far fetched..

[MSUBobcat]

Someone (Professor Chaos???) does an annual "scoreboard" of how the various polls do in regards to making the field and also correctly picking the seeds, if I'm not mistaken. Generally speaking... the polls, especially AGS, correctly pick the field after accounting for AQ's that are not in the top 24. So if you're not in the top 22-24, depending on strength of PFL, NEC and PL that year, there's a real good chance you're sitting on the outside looking in. Perhaps someone has that info available?

[KPSUL]

32568


....IT COMES DOWN....TA AQ's........BODY UH WORK.........SKED STRENGTH FO' BUBBLES.......IFIN' YA HAVE AN' UNCLE MARTY.....&....UH HORSESHOE NECKLACE....:D........BRAWK!

I was pretty disgusted with the URI AD last season. Chairman of the Selection Committee, only two CAA teams in. Rhody was 7-4 and hadn't made the playoff since the face mask was invented and he couldn't get'em in ???xconfusedxxconfusedxxbangxxbangx

[Professor Chaos]

Someone (Professor Chaos???) does an annual "scoreboard" of how the various polls do in regards to making the field and also correctly picking the seeds, if I'm not mistaken. Generally speaking... the polls, especially AGS, correctly pick the field after accounting for AQ's that are not in the top 24. So if you're not in the top 22-24, depending on strength of PFL, NEC and PL that year, there's a real good chance you're sitting on the outside looking in. Perhaps someone has that info available?
It's here: https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?216083-Which-poll-is-the-most-accurate-playoff-predictor

In terms of predicting the at-large teams and the seeds (in general) all three are pretty close but when it comes to predicting the seed lines AGS is clearly the best of the 3 and AGS also has significantly fewer "bad misses" which is when a seed or an at-large projection is more than 2 spots off.

What's even more impressive is that the AGS Poll is the only one of the three now that actually publishes output Sunday before the selection show. I believe up until 2019 STATS used to publish their poll on Sunday rather than Monday but, at least last fall, both STATS and the Coaches polls were released at their normal time on Monday a day after the bracket was announced.

[crusader11]

Is this thread another way to get posters to talk more about Monmouth?

Only busting chops, MU.

You’re right, a seven win team in the CAA automatically gets you in the conversation. Eight wins gets you right on the brink of an at-large.

[JSUSoutherner]

Is this thread another way to get posters to talk more about Monmouth?

Yes.

[MR. CHICKEN]

I was pretty disgusted with the URI AD last season. Chairman of the Selection Committee, only two CAA teams in. Rhody was 7-4 and hadn't made the playoff since the face mask was invented and he couldn't get'em in ???xconfusedxxconfusedxxbangxxbangx


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.......HE'S NEW....AN' HASN'T LEARNED....HOW TA LAUNDER MONEY.....$$$........BRAWK!