Strength of Schedule

[WVAPPmountaineer]

SOS is something we hear with the NCAA (basketball as well) - Most people in the know feel SOS does help determine the seeds as well as the at-large bids - I have listed the top 25 (Sports Network) and following the team name is the Sagarin SOS --- Only listed those eligible for the play-offs
1. UNI 137
3. Montana 179
4. UMass 141
5. APP 120
6. McNeese 170
7. Wofford 151
8. JMU 164
9. SIU 166
10 Hofstra 186
11 NH 156
12 YSU 127
13 Nich St 159
14 Delaware 183
15 Del State 207
17 W. Ill 155
18 Richmond 163
19 Cal Poly 178
20 Mont St 148
21 EKU 169
24 Elon 128
25 Norfolk St 193
-----------
Others of Note
Villanova 136
UC Davis 140
Citadel 144
N. Arz 153
EWU 160
Georgia So. 180
San Diego 238

[AZGrizFan]

Here's the question I have: How much difference is there REALLY between an SOS of 175 and an SOS of 150 or 140? Let's look at Montana and NAU: 7 of the 11 games are against the same teams, therefore these teams should have the exact same impact on the calculated SOS for both Montana and NAU. NAU's OOC schedule consists of I-A Arizona (away), I-AA 2 x defending NC App State (away), and D-II Western New Mexico. Montana's, on the other hand, consists of I-A mid-major Albany (@ home), perennial GWFC cellar-dweller SUU (@ home), and D-II Fort Lewis. Assuming Ft Lewis & Western New Mexico are a wash, it comes down to the other games. Finally, NAU and Montana play each other. Is it correct to assume that Montana's SOS is improved by playing NAU, while NAU's is made worse by playing Montana (based on their SOS)?

In the end, despite the apparently vast gap in opponent talent, Montana's SOS is 179 and NAU's is 153. 26 spots. Big whoop.

I just don't see why there's all the hoopla. If you look at the SOS #'s, what you see is schools (UNI, App State, YSU, UMass) getting MASSIVE SOS credit for playing Iowa State, Michigan and Ohio State and Boston College. Everybody else is within 10-12 of each other.

My point is this: It's easy to make your SOS look terrific. Play ONE I-A game. Boy, your SOS looks good, but in reality there's not a lot of love given to ANY of the remaining teams on your schedule that are I-AA.

One final note:

Why was NDSU eliminated from your data? xconfusedx xconfusedx xconfusedx xconfusedx

[GannonFan]

Psssttt - Appy St still isn't going to get a seed before Wofford does, if they both win out from here. Stop being a homer! xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx

xhomerx

SOS means more in basketball when you play 30 games - when you only play 11 games, and when Wofford and Appy St play same majority of the schedule, SOS means much less.

[BigApp]

One final note:

Why was NDSU eliminated from your data? xconfusedx xconfusedx xconfusedx xconfusedx

read the final sentence in the post!

xrulesx

[AZGrizFan]

read the final sentence in the post!

xrulesx

OK...NDSU's SOS is 165 --- AND THEY PLAY TWO I-A schools!!! That just makes my point entirely....NDSU homers on here have bragged up their SOS and about how Montana plays NOBODY and doesn't deserve their ranking....yet thier SOS is 165 and Montana's is (GASP) 179!

[WVAPPmountaineer]

The SOS is not my opinion - just listing information and you guys can interpret as you see fit --- Have you ever heard ANY NCAA selection committee in ANY sport NOT mention strength of schedule?

[GannonFan]

The SOS is not my opinion - just listing information and you guys can interpret as you see fit --- Have you ever heard ANY NCAA selection committee in ANY sport NOT mention strength of schedule?

Like I said, it matters much more in basketball when you have so much more data to go on. And of course the NCAA uses it for football too, but that's more so for the glaring cases like San Diego, when almost an entire schedule can be judged as not worthy. When it comes to Appy St and Wofford, out of the 10 games they played against other teams, 6 of those games are identical in terms of strength (conference games), and you can go even two further since Coastal is pretty much even with Gardner-Webb and Lenoir Rhyne is pretty much even with Georgetown, Ky. So between Appy St and Wofford 8 of their 10 games are basically identical. So the 31 position difference between their two spots is currently based on comparison of Michigan/N. Arizona versus NC State/Ch Southern.

That's why SOS means even less in football - 31 position difference over simply 2 games. Not enough to really judge on, and especially not enough to change what happened in the 11th game when the two met head to head. xthumbsupx

[The Moody1]

Psssttt - Appy St still isn't going to get a seed before Wofford does, if they both win out from here. Stop being a homer! xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx

xhomerx




If both ASU and Wofford finish out the season at 10-1, ASU will be seeded higher than Wofford. Bank on it.

[GannonFan]

If both ASU and Wofford finish out the season at 10-1, ASU will be seeded higher than Wofford. Bank on it.


Another one!!!

xhomerx

When did Appy fans, at least the newer ones to the board, become such homers???? If Wofford and Appy St win out, Wofford will win the SoCon (Appy will finish 2nd), Wofford will win the autobid (Appy will not), and Wofford, on the strength of their head to head win over Appy St (in a game Wofford won by double digits), Wofford will get a higher seed than Appy St. Prepare yourself for that reality. xthumbsupx

[Syntax Error]

Here's Massey's SOS rank so far for FCS (which unlike Sag takes into account non-D-I teams):
1 Southern Utah
2 Massachusetts
3 Maine
4 Northeastern
5 Gardner Webb
6 W Carolina
7 Villanova
8 Furman
9 Rhode Island
10 CS Sacramento
11 MS Valley St
12 Towson
13 Appalachian St
14 S Carolina St
15 Elon
16 William & Mary
17 Sam Houston St
18 SF Austin
19 UC Davis
20 Wofford
21 Chattanooga
22 Northern Iowa
23 Portland St
24 Texas St
25 Weber St
26 E Kentucky
27 Dartmouth
28 N Colorado
29 S Dakota St
30 Indiana St
31 New Hampshire
32 James Madison
33 TX Southern
34 Northwestern LA
35 Illinois St
36 Citadel
37 Ark Pine Bluff
38 Richmond
39 Jackson St
40 Southern Univ
41 N Dakota St
42 Lehigh
43 Holy Cross
44 Youngstown St
45 E Washington
46 Tennessee St
47 Colgate
48 Idaho St
49 Missouri St
50 Albany NY
51 Florida A&M
52 Montana St
53 Grambling
54 Hofstra
55 Delaware
56 McNeese St
57 NC A&T
58 TN Martin
59 Cent Arkansas
60 W Illinois
61 SE Louisiana
62 Georgetown
63 Alcorn St
64 N Arizona
65 Nicholls St
66 Harvard
67 Coastal Car
68 SE Missouri St
69 Stony Brook
70 Norfolk St
71 Cornell
72 Yale
73 Bethune-Cookman
74 E Illinois
75 Alabama A&M
76 S Illinois
77 Alabama St
78 Ga Southern
79 Jacksonville St
80 Samford
81 Montana
82 Delaware St
83 Brown
84 Charleston So
85 Prairie View
86 Hampton
87 Murray St
88 Cal Poly SLO
89 Liberty
90 VMI
91 Fordham
92 Austin Peay
93 Bucknell
94 Howard
95 W Salem St
96 Drake
97 Monmouth NJ
98 Princeton
99 Morgan St
100 Jacksonville
101 Savannah St
102 Penn
103 St Francis PA
104 Dayton
105 Presbyterian
106 Robert Morris
107 Central Conn
108 Columbia
109 Tennessee Tech
110 Davidson
111 San Diego
112 Marist
113 Lafayette
114 Morehead St
115 Iona
116 Butler
117 NC Central
118 La Salle
119 Sacred Ht
120 Wagner
121 Valparaiso
122 Duquesne

[WVAPPmountaineer]

Where did I compare ASU and Wofford on this post??? - You others keep harping on that - compare some others like AZgriz did - discuss your own team and stop worrying about ASU and Wofford ---

[Black Saturday]

Another one!!!

xhomerx

When did Appy fans, at least the newer ones to the board, become such homers???? If Wofford and Appy St win out, Wofford will win the SoCon (Appy will finish 2nd), Wofford will win the autobid (Appy will not), and Wofford, on the strength of their head to head win over Appy St (in a game Wofford won by double digits), Wofford will get a higher seed than Appy St. Prepare yourself for that reality. xthumbsupx

Since the NCAA cares about how much revenue they get from games. Wake up dude. 10-1 APP is a #1 or #2 seed. Prepare yourself for that reality.xthumbsupx

[WVAPPmountaineer]

Here's Massey's SOS rank so far for FCS (which unlike Sag takes into account non-D-I teams):

I didn't quite understand your definition - does this SOS take into effect home or away - win or lose - where? -

[Syntax Error]

I didn't quite understand your definition - does this SOS take into effect home or away - win or lose - where? -Sagarin doesn't rate anything but D-I teams, Massey applies his rating over all the teams. There is a difference. As for what goes into his ratings check here: http://masseyratings.com/faq.htm
Schedule strength is here: http://masseyratings.com/theory/sched.htm

[WVAPPmountaineer]

Does anyone know what is the preferred SOS rating that is used by the NCAA? ---

[GoldandBlack]

Does anyone know what is the preferred SOS rating that is used by the NCAA? ---

http://discover.edventures.com/images/termlib/u/unfavorable_result/support.gif

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

While I appreciate all the time and work you put into this, keep in mind that much of the SOS rankings are misleading.

First of all, not all games have been played yet (unless you accounted for future games, which I don't believe is possible and/or accurate, especially in the on again, off again CAA schedules). Those who started out with a tougher stretch of conference opponents will appear unreasonably high and vice versa.

Likewise, those schools who do poorly in conference show up higher in SOS because they are playing the tough conference opponents. Montana does not play Montana, UMass cannot play UMass, etc.

Also, these "scores" are a simple ranking, meaning you don't know to what degree 1 is from 2 in scale, etc. all the way down to the weakest schedule. So to compare 150 with 175 really means nothing, as it is does not reflect the degree of difficulty or lack thereof.

A nice little tool to think about, but I don't really buy it.

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

Since the NCAA cares about how much revenue they get from games. Wake up dude. 10-1 APP is a #1 or #2 seed. Prepare yourself for that reality.xthumbsupx

Actually, historically records and conference standings mean the most in terms of seeding. Most recent example is Hampton. Furman has been seeded before, so while you have a point, I still wouldn't count on the seed until it is announced.

[ALPHAGRIZ1]

I didn't read any of this thread but our SOS has to be at the bottom.

[GoldandBlack]

I didn't read any of this thread but our SOS has to be at the bottom.

Actually, out of the top 25, Delaware, Hofstra, Delaware State and Norfolk State have lower SOSs than the Griz.

[WVAPPmountaineer]

A nice little tool to think about, but I don't really buy it.


Not asking anyone to buy this - it is the current Sagarin rankings - At some point SOS comes into play whether I like it or not or whether we think it fair - My point is there is something else the committee will look at other than just the record - What do you think are other "tools" they will use? --- Don't we all look ahead and "predict" in these boards?

[Biff]

Both the Massey and Sagarin factor into the GPI

http://www.collegesportingnews.com/section_front.asp?arttypeid=983

Not sure how important a factor the GPI is in determining who makes the playoff's.

[touchdown]

Here is the link to NCAA SOS
http://web1.ncaa.org/d1mfb/2007/Internet/toughest%20schedule/iaa_9games_cumm.pdf

Looks like San diego's schedule is tougher then Montana, Nichols state, Cal Poly and McNeese. I guess it is all based on what format you want to use, just thought this was interesting!

[blueballs]

If both ASU and Wofford finish out the season at 10-1, ASU will be seeded higher than Wofford. Bank on it.

No way... Wofford will have the auto bid and a win in hand. ASU may well get a seed, but it won't be at Wofford's expense.

[GoldandBlack]

No way... Wofford will have the auto bid and a win in hand. ASU may well get a seed, but it won't be at Wofford's expense.

Eh- it'll be what it'll be. Too much football left to even be worried about it yet. Right now, I'm worried about Elon on Saturday.

I'm just happy it's football season, and I'm not having to pretend I like baseball and NASCAR just to pass some time.xthumbsupx

[Ronin]

Sports Network poll is crap with the media and sports information directors voting. These guys should be voting on the best buffet, not on which football team is better.

I'll take Sagarin along with winning conference to determine seeding and who's in.

[SoCon48]

Another one!!!

xhomerx

When did Appy fans, at least the newer ones to the board, become such homers???? If Wofford and Appy St win out, Wofford will win the SoCon (Appy will finish 2nd), Wofford will win the autobid (Appy will not), and Wofford, on the strength of their head to head win over Appy St (in a game Wofford won by double digits), Wofford will get a higher seed than Appy St. Prepare yourself for that reality. xthumbsupx

Weren't you one of the ones who predicted Michigan to beat "Appy" by an astronomical score?

[SoCon48]

Eh- it'll be what it'll be. Too much football left to even be worried about it yet. Right now, I'm worried about Elon on Saturday.
I'm just happy it's football season, and I'm not having to pretend I like baseball and NASCAR just to pass some time.xthumbsupx


That's wise. If you don't get to Riddle often, he'll shred you to pieces.

[tralfangar]

I look forward to (actually dread) the ensuing meltdown if somehow we lose to Georgia Southern/Citadel/Furman...

Point being, there is still a ton of football left to be played. We can argue about deserving a seed once we have won some more games.

[APP91]

Another one!!!

xhomerx

When did Appy fans, at least the newer ones to the board, become such homers???? If Wofford and Appy St win out, Wofford will win the SoCon (Appy will finish 2nd), Wofford will win the autobid (Appy will not), and Wofford, on the strength of their head to head win over Appy St (in a game Wofford won by double digits), Wofford will get a higher seed than Appy St. Prepare yourself for that reality. xthumbsupx


A Fan that's a Homer.
nah, can't be
SAY IT AIN'T SO!!xlolx

[phillyAPP]

I look forward to (actually dread) the ensuing meltdown if somehow we lose to Georgia Southern/Citadel/Furman...

Point being, there is still a ton of football left to be played. We can argue about deserving a seed once we have won some more games.

SOS only matters if everything else is even and even then, I don't believe it matters because who knows what happens behind the closed doors.

I agree 100% with traganger------- If's don't count

Money helps decide who gets home games to NCAA.

Wofford may decide to spend some $$$$$ this playoff season and get a home game. Either way I hope we finish playing strong football.

[Saint3333]

Psssttt - Appy St still isn't going to get a seed before Wofford does, if they both win out from here. Stop being a homer!

If both win out, IMO both will be seeded.

[GannonFan]

If both win out, IMO both will be seeded.


Quite possible, I agree. Just need to see what happens with the undefeated teams and whether they stay undefeated. I don't think Wofford or Appy St would be seeded ahead of an undefeated Montana (even with the schedule), McNeese St (they do have an FBS win - a weak one, but FBS nonetheless), or an undefeated UNI (again they have an FBS win). If those 3 teams stay undefeated 3 of the seeds will go to them (all 3 would be conference champions as well as being undefeated) and only one seed will be left for Wofford/Appy St.

[Saint3333]

I usually pull for McNeese and UNI as I've always respected their history and until 2005 I felt their pain for being one of the top programs never to win it all. However as an ASU fan it helps ASU if one or both lose this weekend. If McNeese beats NSU they will go undefeated, UNI still has a couple tough games.

Montana is a strange one, if they continue to struggle it would be disappointing if they got a seed over a 10-1 UMass, JMU, Wofford, ASU, or UNI. However 11-0 in an autobid conference and the $$$ that Montana brings in will be hard keep out.

The next five weeks are going to be great watching it all unfold.

[appfan2008]

i am amazed that asu is listed so high in sos even with our incredibly tough schedule including lenoir ryhne and gardner webb

[terrierbob]

SOS only matters if everything else is even and even then, I don't believe it matters because who knows what happens behind the closed doors.

I agree 100% with traganger------- If's don't count

Money helps decide who gets home games to NCAA.

Wofford may decide to spend some $$$$$ this playoff season and get a home game. Either way I hope we finish playing strong football.


How much $$$ are we talking about?

[JALMOND]

I was a strong proponent of SOS until last year when Portland State reached the seven DI wins playing the toughest schedule in the country (three FBS bowl bound teams and the Big Sky conference slate) and did not get an invitation to the playoffs. SOS should not be relied upon too heavily. All it is is just a "fluff" stat and does not mean diddly-poo.

[WVAPPmountaineer]

SOS should not be relied upon too heavily. All it is is just a "fluff" stat and does not mean diddly-poo.

Yes and No - I agree that it shouldn't be relied on too heavily but it's not fluff - would you take an 11-0 San Diego team over 2nd/3rd place finishers in the major conferences who have quality wins against a quality schedule? That is an extreme I know - however all of us that have followed any NCAA sport's post season selection process have heard the words "Strength of Schedule"

[Keeper]

S-O-S ?? xconfusedx

[AZGrizFan]

I usually pull for McNeese and UNI as I've always respected their history and until 2005 I felt their pain for being one of the top programs never to win it all. However as an ASU fan it helps ASU if one or both lose this weekend. If McNeese beats NSU they will go undefeated, UNI still has a couple tough games.

Montana is a strange one, if they continue to struggle it would be disappointing if they got a seed over a 10-1 UMass, JMU, Wofford, ASU, or UNI. However 11-0 in an autobid conference and the $$$ that Montana brings in will be hard keep out.

The next five weeks are going to be great watching it all unfold.

Well saint, if they continue to struggle, it'll be a moot point since the odds of them going 11-0 playing like the currently are playing are somewhere between slim and none. To go 11-0, Montana will have to SIGNIFICANTLY upgrade their level of play to get by NAU (in Flag), PSU, and MSU (in Bozo). IF (and it's a BIG if) they accomplish that feat and through some miracle DO go 11-0, then they absolutely deserve a seed. If not, well then, all bets are off....

[TheValleyRaider]

Money only matters for the at-larges. Potential seeds only have to be willing to bid the minimum, and then they'll have a home game as long as they're the higher seed. Seeds are given on merit, so if the choice really is Wofford or App. State for the last seed, and they're both 10-1, Wofford's it. App. State will probably get a home game, even if they get in at 9-2, 8-3. That's where the $$$ plays into it