Michigan's Loss to App: BCS Rankings

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Can someone in the know answer me this:

Suppose Michigan goes 11-1 with the loss coming to App. How would that loss play out for them in the BCS computers? The reason I ask is that App State shouldn't have any common opponents with Michigan. Would App State simply be ranked as a loss to the #120th ranked team?

Does the AP poll come into play at all when it comes to picking out bowl games? If so, the fact that App can receive votes for the AP Top 25 has huge implications for who gets to go to what bowl, if so. For the sake of argument, let's say Michigan is ranked #5 at the end of the year while App goes 11-0 in the regular season and is ranked #24. If the BCS computer considers that loss worse than a loss to Temple, Michigan would have no shot to go to a bowl. However, if the computer is considering App State's new ranking in the Top 25... Michigan would.

Also, doesn't the final BCS rankings come out a little after the first round of games are played in the FCS Playoffs? That means App State could lose in the semifinals... but Michigan still would be in line for a bowl game, since it will have been determined already.

These aftershocks of the App upset are not only damned interesting, they are opening up all sorts of questions in the FBS world as well.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

OK, I looked at this further and I saw that Harris replaced the use of the AP rankings.

http://www.harrisinteractive.com/news/bcspoll.asp

And as of today, Harris does not allow the ranking of FCS teams in there. If I were a Michigan fan, I'd start the email campaign now to allow FCS teams on there...

More broadly, App State's win is going to cause a major, major headache to the BCS system in general. If Michigan does go 11-1 the barbarians will truly be at the gate to get some way to have this "loss" counted fairly in the rankings. Imagine if Michigan gets cut out of a BCS Bowl because of this and has to go instead to the Insight.Com bowl. There would be riots.

[proasu89]

OK, I looked at this further and I saw that Harris replaced the use of the AP rankings.

http://www.harrisinteractive.com/news/bcspoll.asp

And as of today, Harris does not allow the ranking of FCS teams in there. If I were a Michigan fan, I'd start the email campaign now to allow FCS teams on there...

More broadly, App State's win is going to cause a major, major headache to the BCS system in general. If Michigan does go 11-1 the barbarians will truly be at the gate to get some way to have this "loss" counted fairly in the rankings. Imagine if Michigan gets cut out of a BCS Bowl because of this and has to go instead to the Insight.Com bowl. There would be riots.

The good news is it's not our problemxpeacex xwhistlex

[BDKJMU]

OK, I looked at this further and I saw that Harris replaced the use of the AP rankings.

http://www.harrisinteractive.com/news/bcspoll.asp

And as of today, Harris does not allow the ranking of FCS teams in there. If I were a Michigan fan, I'd start the email campaign now to allow FCS teams on there...

More broadly, App State's win is going to cause a major, major headache to the BCS system in general. If Michigan does go 11-1 the barbarians will truly be at the gate to get some way to have this "loss" counted fairly in the rankings. Imagine if Michigan gets cut out of a BCS Bowl because of this and has to go instead to the Insight.Com bowl. There would be riots.

Its a waste of time to even speculate something thats not going to happen. Not to take anything away from ASU, but after now losing 3 straight (Ohio State, Rose Bowl to USC and now ASU) I reckon UM going 11-1 has about as much chance to happen as I have of being elected President. ASU exposed major weaknesses in a defense that lost I believe it was 7 starters from last yr. Still have to play Oregon and Notre Dame OOC, plus #14 Penn State, @ #5 Wis, #12 Ohio State. They will lose at least a couple more games, at least 1-2 in the Big Ten.

[BigApp]

should Michigan win the Big 10, they're automatically in a BCS bowl.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

should Michigan win the Big 10, they're automatically in a BCS bowl.

I understand that it may or may not be likely to happen. But even if they a) win the Big 10, or b) got 10-2 or 9-3, there could STILL be BCS issues, because Michigan could be killed in their computer rankings.

Point being, if Michigan does well, this is the "issue that won't die".

[Pard4Life]

Well if Michigan went 11-1 and there was a PLAYOFF... we likely would not be talking about this..

Either way 11-1 Michigan makes a major bowl by virture of being Big 10 Champion

[813Jag]

I don't think it's cut and dry that Michigan will win the Big 10. If they go 9-3 they won't make the BCS, especially if they lose to Wisconsin and Ohio State. If those two schools finish ahead of them there's no way they can get in. You can't have more than 2 schools from one conference in the BCS.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

But if they go 11-1, USC goes 12-0, and Oklahoma goes 10-2, who goes to the BCS Championship game? Does Michigan's loss the same as a loss to Temple, and Oklahoma's losses to Kansas State and somebody else count more? Even if Michigan wins the Big 10, the issue could very well be: Who deserves to go?

Let's say they finish 10-2 behind 12-0 Penn State. Penn State goes to the title game. But does 10-2 Michigan have enough BCS points to make a major bowl? Or do they go to the "Insight.com" bowl?

The computer problems don't go away if they win the Big 10. If they are within sniffing distance of ANY BCS Bowl, this will become a major issue.

[appfan2008]

a lot of wins need to happen on both sides for that too happen

[813Jag]

But if they go 11-1, USC goes 12-0, and Oklahoma goes 10-2, who goes to the BCS Championship game? Does Michigan's loss the same as a loss to Temple, and Oklahoma's losses to Kansas State and somebody else count more? Even if Michigan wins the Big 10, the issue could very well be: Who deserves to go?

Let's say they finish 10-2 behind 12-0 Penn State. Penn State goes to the title game. But does 10-2 Michigan have enough BCS points to make a major bowl? Or do they go to the "Insight.com" bowl?

The computer problems don't go away if they win the Big 10. If they are within sniffing distance of ANY BCS Bowl, this will become a major issue.
You're leaving out one point. The SEC champ will figure into the BCS championship. LSU has a good chance on tomorrow to get that signature non conference win that could propel them thru the season. Most of theire tough games are at home.