Week 8 Playoff Prognostication

[Professor Chaos]

I thought with only 4 weeks to go in the regular season it was time to get some discussion going about prognosticating the playoffs now that we've got a pretty good idea of how the conferences are shaping. I've broken it down by conference and grouped teams together based on how good or not good I think their playoff chances are. The "Should be in" category is teams I think will be in unless they have an upset or two down the road. The "Work left to do" category is teams that have some margin for error but not a lot. I based my favored by on Massey's win percentage listed under each team at https://masseyratings.com/cf2021/fcs/ratings


MVFC
The top 3 look to be in if they don't take multiple upsets. Of those with work left to do UNI is sitting the best but Missouri St is in decent shape as well. South Dakota might have a rough go of it. Of the group that must win out only UND has a shot IMO. 5 seems the likeliest number of playoff teams from the MVFC.

Should be in (3):
NDSU (7-0, 4-0) - Favored in 3 of their remaining 4
SIU (6-1, 4-0) - Favored in 3 of their remaining 4
SDSU (5-2, 2-2) - Favored in all of their remaining 4

Work left to do (3):
South Dakota (5-3, 3-2) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 3
Missouri St (4-3, 3-2) - Favored in 2 of their reamining 4
UNI (4-3, 2-2) - Favored in all of their remaining 4

Must win out (4):
Indiana St (4-4, 2-3) - Favored in none of their remaining 3
UND (3-4, 1-3) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 4
Illinois St (3-4, 1-3) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 4
YSU (2-4, 1-3) - Favored in none of their remaining 4


Big Sky
The Big Sky looks like they'll get 5 easily unless some craziness happens down the streth. I think Weber St has a chance to make it even at 6-5 given how tough their schedule is but they could/should win out. The two that must win out are almost certainly not going to. I still think the Big Sky probably gets 6.

Should be in (5):
Montana St (7-1, 5-0) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 3
EWU (7-1, 4-1) - Favored in all of their remaining 3
UC Davis (7-1, 4-1) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 3
Sacramento St (5-2, 4-0) - Favored in 3 of their remaining 4
Montana (5-2, 2-2) - Favored in all of their remaining 4

Work left to do (1):
Weber St (3-4, 2-2) - Favored in all of their remaining 4

Must win out (2):
Northern Arizona (3-4, 2-2) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 4
Portland St (3-4, 2-2) - Favored in 1 of thir remaining 4


CAA
Only looks like 2 for sure in the CAA and those 2 could be wrecking crews for the group in the work left to do category. Rhode Island is sitting in the best shape of that group with a very winnable FBS game (UMass) that could really bolster their chances. It seems highly unlikely anyone in the group that must win out will get there. I'm going to say the CAA only gets 3 as of now.

Should be in (2):
Villanova (6-1, 4-0) - Favored in all of their remaining 4
JMU (6-1, 4-1) - Favored in all of their remaining 4

Work left to do (3):
William & Mary (5-2, 3-1) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 4
Elon (4-3, 3-1) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 4
Rhode Island (5-2, 3-2) - Favored in 2 of their last 4

Must win out (4):
New Hampshire (3-4, 2-2) - Favored in 2 of their last 4
Towson (3-4, 2-2) - Favored in 2 of their last 4
Delaware (3-4, 2-3) - Favored in 2 of their last 4
Maine (3-4, 2-3) - Favored in none of their last 4


SOCON
ETSU is the only SOCON team that can feel very comfortable. Chattanooga is probably sitting in the best shapen in the group of teams with work left to do but VMI also has a decent shot. Samford still has to play Florida so it's unlikely they'll hang around. I would guess 2 or 3 bids out of the SOCON depending on what happens elsewhere.

Should be in (1):
ETSU (7-1, 4-1) - Favored in all of their remaining 3

Work left to do (4):
Mercer (5-2, 4-1) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 3
VMI (5-2, 3-1) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 4
Chattanooga (4-3, 3-1) - Favored in all of their remaining 4
Furman (4-3, 2-2) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 4

Must win out (1):
Samford (3-4, 2-3) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 4


AQ7
Sam Houston should waltz in as the autobid. EKU will be an interesting team if they finish 8-3 (assuming that final loss is to SHSU). SFA has a decent shot to win out as well (ACU does not). I think it's definitely possible that the AQ7 swipes an at-large.

Should be in (1):
SHSU (6-0, 4-0) - Favored in all of the remaining 4

Work left to do (1):
EKU (5-2, 2-0) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 4

Must win out (2):
ACU (4-3, 1-2) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 4
SFA (3-3, 0-2) - Favored in 3 of their remaining 4


Southland
The autobid likely comes down to who wins the SLU@UIW matchup in a couple weeks but Nicholls could still make a mess of things. I'm not even sure McNeese makes it if they win out with that D2 loss but they'd have stacked up some impressive wins at the end of the season.

Should be in (1):
SLU (6-1, 4-0) - Favored in all of their remaining 4

Work left to do (1):
UIW (5-2, 3-1) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 4

Must win out (2):
McNeese (3-4, 2-2) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 4
Nicholls (3-4, 1-3) - Favored in 3 of their remaining 4


Others (likely autobid denoted by an *)
The bubble could tighten if KSU and UTM don't win their respective league autos as both would definitely get an at-large at 9-2 and could get one at 8-3 even. I'd say there's an outside chance that the Patriot League could get an at-large if Fordham gets the auto and Holy Cross wins out other than their game with Fordham. I think we could also see a SWAC team or two contend for an at-large as well but with so many unknowns around who will play in the SWAC title game at this point I didn't include any of them yet.

Should be in (2):
Big South - KSU* (6-1, 3-0) - Favored in all of their remaining 4
OVC - UTM* (6-1, 2-0) - Favored in all of their remaining 4

Work left to do (1):
Patriot - Holy Cross* (5-2, 2-0) - Favored in all of their remaining 4

Must win out (3):
Big South - Monmouth (4-3, 3-0) - Favored in 3 of their remaining 4
OVC - Tennessee St (4-3, 2-1) - Favored in none of their remaining 4
OVC - APSU (3-4, 1-1) - Favored in 3 of their remaining 4


So I'm going to say with 13 at-large up for grabs that the Big Sky gets 5, the MVFC gets 4, and CAA gets 2, and the SOCON gets 1. After that the last one could also go the SOCON, the AQ7, the SLC, or one of the leagues mentioned in the others group. If the bubble tightens that might knock the Big Sky down to 4 at-large or the CAA down all the way to 1. Of course the MVFC meat grinder could claim some victims as well which would soften the bubble up.

I'm not going to put together a projected field or bracket beyond this but I'd be interested to see one if anyone wanted to or has put one together. Otherwise, discuss away what you think I missed or messed up here.

[acbearkat]

If Incarnate Word finishes 7-4, they’re in because of the win over Texas State.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[katss07]

Aren’t the just 11 autobids?

[Professor Chaos]

If Incarnate Word finishes 7-4, they’re in because of the win over Texas State.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I don't think that's a given but you could be right. Their win over Prairie View A&M keeps looking better and better as well.


Aren’t the just 11 autobids?
Yes, 11 autos and 13 at-larges. One more auto and one fewer at-large than 2019.

EDIT: Doh! Just realized I put 13 autobids when I meant to say at-large at the end of my post. Fixed it now.

[Houndawg]

I thought with only 4 weeks to go in the regular season it was time to get some discussion going about prognosticating the playoffs now that we've got a pretty good idea of how the conferences are shaping. I've broken it down by conference and grouped teams together based on how good or not good I think their playoff chances are. The "Should be in" category is teams I think will be in unless they have an upset or two down the road. The "Work left to do" category is teams that have some margin for error but not a lot. I based my favored by on Massey's win percentage listed under each team at https://masseyratings.com/cf2021/fcs/ratings


MVFC
The top 3 look to be in if they don't take multiple upsets. Of those with work left to do UNI is sitting the best but Missouri St is in decent shape as well. South Dakota might have a rough go of it. Of the group that must win out only UND has a shot IMO. 5 seems the likeliest number of playoff teams from the MVFC.

Should be in (3):
NDSU (7-0, 4-0) - Favored in 3 of their remaining 4
SIU (6-1, 4-0) - Favored in 3 of their remaining 4
SDSU (5-2, 2-2) - Favored in all of their remaining 4

Work left to do (3):
South Dakota (5-3, 3-2) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 3
Missouri St (4-3, 3-2) - Favored in 2 of their reamining 4
UNI (4-3, 2-2) - Favored in all of their remaining 4

Must win out (4):
Indiana St (4-4, 2-3) - Favored in none of their remaining 3
UND (3-4, 1-3) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 4
Illinois St (3-4, 1-3) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 4
YSU (2-4, 1-3) - Favored in none of their remaining 4


Big Sky
The Big Sky looks like they'll get 5 easily unless some craziness happens down the streth. I think Weber St has a chance to make it even at 6-5 given how tough their schedule is but they could/should win out. The two that must win out are almost certainly not going to. I still think the Big Sky probably gets 6.

Should be in (5):
Montana St (7-1, 5-0) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 3
EWU (7-1, 4-1) - Favored in all of their remaining 3
UC Davis (7-1, 4-1) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 3
Sacramento St (5-2, 4-0) - Favored in 3 of their remaining 4
Montana (5-2, 2-2) - Favored in all of their remaining 4

Work left to do (1):
Weber St (3-4, 2-2) - Favored in all of their remaining 4

Must win out (2):
Northern Arizona (3-4, 2-2) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 4
Portland St (3-4, 2-2) - Favored in 1 of thir remaining 4


CAA
Only looks like 2 for sure in the CAA and those 2 could be wrecking crews for the group in the work left to do category. Rhode Island is sitting in the best shape of that group with a very winnable FBS game (UMass) that could really bolster their chances. It seems highly unlikely anyone in the group that must win out will get there. I'm going to say the CAA only gets 3 as of now.

Should be in (2):
Villanova (6-1, 4-0) - Favored in all of their remaining 4
JMU (6-1, 4-1) - Favored in all of their remaining 4

Work left to do (3):
William & Mary (5-2, 3-1) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 4
Elon (4-3, 3-1) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 4
Rhode Island (5-2, 3-2) - Favored in 2 of their last 4

Must win out (4):
New Hampshire (3-4, 2-2) - Favored in 2 of their last 4
Towson (3-4, 2-2) - Favored in 2 of their last 4
Delaware (3-4, 2-3) - Favored in 2 of their last 4
Maine (3-4, 2-3) - Favored in none of their last 4


SOCON
ETSU is the only SOCON team that can feel very comfortable. Chattanooga is probably sitting in the best shapen in the group of teams with work left to do but VMI also has a decent shot. Samford still has to play Florida so it's unlikely they'll hang around. I would guess 2 or 3 bids out of the SOCON depending on what happens elsewhere.

Should be in (1):
ETSU (7-1, 4-1) - Favored in all of their remaining 3

Work left to do (4):
Mercer (5-2, 4-1) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 3
VMI (5-2, 3-1) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 4
Chattanooga (4-3, 3-1) - Favored in all of their remaining 4
Furman (4-3, 2-2) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 4

Must win out (1):
Samford (3-4, 2-3) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 4


AQ7
Sam Houston should waltz in as the autobid. EKU will be an interesting team if they finish 8-3 (assuming that final loss is to SHSU). SFA has a decent shot to win out as well (ACU does not). I think it's definitely possible that the AQ7 swipes an at-large.

Should be in (1):
SHSU (6-0, 4-0) - Favored in all of the remaining 4

Work left to do (1):
EKU (5-2, 2-0) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 4

Must win out (2):
ACU (4-3, 1-2) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 4
SFA (3-3, 0-2) - Favored in 3 of their remaining 4


Southland
The autobid likely comes down to who wins the SLU@UIW matchup in a couple weeks but Nicholls could still make a mess of things. I'm not even sure McNeese makes it if they win out with that D2 loss but they'd have stacked up some impressive wins at the end of the season.

Should be in (1):
SLU (6-1, 4-0) - Favored in all of their remaining 4

Work left to do (1):
UIW (5-2, 3-1) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 4

Must win out (2):
McNeese (3-4, 2-2) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 4
Nicholls (3-4, 1-3) - Favored in 3 of their remaining 4


Others (likely autobid denoted by an *)
The bubble could tighten if KSU and UTM don't win their respective league autos as both would definitely get an at-large at 9-2 and could get one at 8-3 even. I'd say there's an outside chance that the Patriot League could get an at-large if Fordham gets the auto and Holy Cross wins out other than their game with Fordham. I think we could also see a SWAC team or two contend for an at-large as well but with so many unknowns around who will play in the SWAC title game at this point I didn't include any of them yet.

Should be in (2):
Big South - KSU* (6-1, 3-0) - Favored in all of their remaining 4
OVC - UTM* (6-1, 2-0) - Favored in all of their remaining 4

Work left to do (1):
Patriot - Holy Cross* (5-2, 2-0) - Favored in all of their remaining 4

Must win out (3):
Big South - Monmouth (4-3, 3-0) - Favored in 3 of their remaining 4
OVC - Tennessee St (4-3, 2-1) - Favored in none of their remaining 4
OVC - APSU (3-4, 1-1) - Favored in 3 of their remaining 4


So I'm going to say with 13 at-large up for grabs that the Big Sky gets 5, the MVFC gets 4, and CAA gets 2, and the SOCON gets 1. After that the last one could also go the SOCON, the AQ7, the SLC, or one of the leagues mentioned in the others group. If the bubble tightens that might knock the Big Sky down to 4 at-large or the CAA down all the way to 1. Of course the MVFC meat grinder could claim some victims as well which would soften the bubble up.

I'm not going to put together a projected field or bracket beyond this but I'd be interested to see one if anyone wanted to or has put one together. Otherwise, discuss away what you think I missed or messed up here.

MSU always gives us fits, wouldn't be surprised if we beat UNI and lose to MSU

[Chalupa Batman]

I thought with only 4 weeks to go in the regular season it was time to get some discussion going about prognosticating the playoffs now that we've got a pretty good idea of how the conferences are shaping. I've broken it down by conference and grouped teams together based on how good or not good I think their playoff chances are. The "Should be in" category is teams I think will be in unless they have an upset or two down the road. The "Work left to do" category is teams that have some margin for error but not a lot. I based my favored by on Massey's win percentage listed under each team at https://masseyratings.com/cf2021/fcs/ratings


CAA
Only looks like 2 for sure in the CAA and those 2 could be wrecking crews for the group in the work left to do category. Rhode Island is sitting in the best shape of that group with a very winnable FBS game (UMass) that could really bolster their chances. It seems highly unlikely anyone in the group that must win out will get there. I'm going to say the CAA only gets 3 as of now.

Should be in (2):
Villanova (6-1, 4-0) - Favored in all of their remaining 4
JMU (6-1, 4-1) - Favored in all of their remaining 4

Work left to do (3):
William & Mary (5-2, 3-1) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 4
Elon (4-3, 3-1) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 4
Rhode Island (5-2, 3-2) - Favored in 2 of their last 4

Must win out (4):
New Hampshire (3-4, 2-2) - Favored in 2 of their last 4
Towson (3-4, 2-2) - Favored in 2 of their last 4
Delaware (3-4, 2-3) - Favored in 2 of their last 4
Maine (3-4, 2-3) - Favored in none of their last 4


I'd say there's an outside chance that the Patriot League could get an at-large if Fordham gets the auto and Holy Cross wins out other than their game with Fordham.


I agree that any 3rd team out of the CAA needs to get to 7-4 for an at-large bid and the 4 teams that you list as "need to win out" won't. Assuming no one picks up W's over Villanova & JMU, Elon would be out because they still have to play both of them. William & Mary needs to sweep @Delaware and Richmond at home. Rhode Island needs to win 2 of it's final 4 games, Maine, @UMass, UNH, @Elon. It's possible that both W&M & URI get to 7-4, most likely that only URI gets to 7-4, or possible that neither get to 7-4. Bubble teams elsewhere will be watching W&M & URI closely.

I can certainly see Holy Cross getting an at large in the scenario you mentioned. They would be 8-3 and have a decent resume with wins over UConn & Monmouth, though the loss to Merrimack isn't good. Monmouth winning the Big South would really help that resume and bolster their chances for an at large bid. An unexpected stumble by a bubble team or three from the Big 3 conferences would also help them out.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Holy Cross likely will also have a win over a "good" Yale team. I think the Crusaders are in at 8-3 so long as the bubble is pretty "meh". Which I believe is likely.

Heck, as bad as a the PL is (has been), Fordham at 7-4 (7-2 vs FCS) will get at least a "glance"....

[MUHAWKS]

I think Monmouth is going to win out which in theory you would think would help HC/Fordham but in reality it may not b/c Kennesaw would 100% get at an at large that Monmouth would not have gotten.

[acbearkat]

South Dakota State is a team to watch. They could be slipping out of the playoff picture, as they've lost back to back home games to ranked opponents and are now 5-2. The Jackrabbits really need to win the games against North Dakota State and South Dakota, or win one of those games, even though they should beat Youngstown State this weekend fairly handily. The two games to watch in the Valley this week in terms of the playoff race are North Dakota/Missouri State and Southern Illinois/Northern Iowa. If Northern Iowa wins that game, I would feel really good about their chances of making the playoffs.

[Professor Chaos]

South Dakota State is a team to watch. They could be slipping out of the playoff picture, as they've lost back to back home games to ranked opponents and are now 5-2. The Jackrabbits really need to win the games against North Dakota State and South Dakota, or win one of those games, even though they should beat Youngstown State this weekend fairly handily. The two games to watch in the Valley this week in terms of the playoff race are North Dakota/Missouri State and Southern Illinois/Northern Iowa. If Northern Iowa wins that game, I would feel really good about their chances of making the playoffs.
I think SDSU is fine still. They can probably drop 2 of their last 4 and still make it in on the weight of their reputation and their win over Colorado St. If they do finish at 7-4 though they have a sub-D1 win that the committee could use as an excuse to ding them. Still, I think they're in at 7-4 regardless.

I think USD is in trouble. They're going to have to beat either SDSU at home or NDSU on the road to get to 7 wins. And their other game @WIU isn't a walk in the park either. I know WIU is 1-7 but they were a 2 point conversion away from beating SIU and they only lost to EWU by 6 n Macomb. It's just a weird place to play so USD needs to avoid tripping up there as well.

I do agree that the UND @ Missouri St game this Saturday is huge. If MSU drops that one they're in a lot of trouble given they'd have to win out and have tough games @SIU and vs UNI right after that. If UND wins that game they're probably going into SDSU in week 12 at 6-4 in a win-and-you're-in scenario.

I think UNI can lose this weekend to SIU but then they need to beat Missouri St in Springfield in a few weeks which is pretty much a coin flip at this point. I'm surprised that Massey gives UNI a 59% chance to beat SIU this week (predicted score of 27-24). SIU is coming off a bye and UNI may be in store for a let down, even against a rival, after their huge win last week.

[acbearkat]

I would have South Dakota State favored against North Dakota State especially if Cam Miller is the quarterback going forward. That South Dakota State defensive line was active against North Dakota State in the spring, and Miller didn't perform well against Sam Houston in the playoff game in Huntsville against that defensive line. The Jackrabbits just simply beat up North Dakota State in Fargo in the spring. Rhode Island to me, even at 7-4, is not a playoff team. Their 5-0 start was absolutely fraudulent, and they were boat raced this past weekend by Villanova, 44-0.

[kalm]

I thought with only 4 weeks to go in the regular season it was time to get some discussion going about prognosticating the playoffs now that we've got a pretty good idea of how the conferences are shaping. I've broken it down by conference and grouped teams together based on how good or not good I think their playoff chances are. The "Should be in" category is teams I think will be in unless they have an upset or two down the road. The "Work left to do" category is teams that have some margin for error but not a lot. I based my favored by on Massey's win percentage listed under each team at https://masseyratings.com/cf2021/fcs/ratings


MVFC
The top 3 look to be in if they don't take multiple upsets. Of those with work left to do UNI is sitting the best but Missouri St is in decent shape as well. South Dakota might have a rough go of it. Of the group that must win out only UND has a shot IMO. 5 seems the likeliest number of playoff teams from the MVFC.

Should be in (3):
NDSU (7-0, 4-0) - Favored in 3 of their remaining 4
SIU (6-1, 4-0) - Favored in 3 of their remaining 4
SDSU (5-2, 2-2) - Favored in all of their remaining 4

Work left to do (3):
South Dakota (5-3, 3-2) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 3
Missouri St (4-3, 3-2) - Favored in 2 of their reamining 4
UNI (4-3, 2-2) - Favored in all of their remaining 4

Must win out (4):
Indiana St (4-4, 2-3) - Favored in none of their remaining 3
UND (3-4, 1-3) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 4
Illinois St (3-4, 1-3) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 4
YSU (2-4, 1-3) - Favored in none of their remaining 4


Big Sky
The Big Sky looks like they'll get 5 easily unless some craziness happens down the streth. I think Weber St has a chance to make it even at 6-5 given how tough their schedule is but they could/should win out. The two that must win out are almost certainly not going to. I still think the Big Sky probably gets 6.

Should be in (5):
Montana St (7-1, 5-0) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 3
EWU (7-1, 4-1) - Favored in all of their remaining 3
UC Davis (7-1, 4-1) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 3
Sacramento St (5-2, 4-0) - Favored in 3 of their remaining 4
Montana (5-2, 2-2) - Favored in all of their remaining 4

Work left to do (1):
Weber St (3-4, 2-2) - Favored in all of their remaining 4

Must win out (2):
Northern Arizona (3-4, 2-2) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 4
Portland St (3-4, 2-2) - Favored in 1 of thir remaining 4


CAA
Only looks like 2 for sure in the CAA and those 2 could be wrecking crews for the group in the work left to do category. Rhode Island is sitting in the best shape of that group with a very winnable FBS game (UMass) that could really bolster their chances. It seems highly unlikely anyone in the group that must win out will get there. I'm going to say the CAA only gets 3 as of now.

Should be in (2):
Villanova (6-1, 4-0) - Favored in all of their remaining 4
JMU (6-1, 4-1) - Favored in all of their remaining 4

Work left to do (3):
William & Mary (5-2, 3-1) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 4
Elon (4-3, 3-1) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 4
Rhode Island (5-2, 3-2) - Favored in 2 of their last 4

Must win out (4):
New Hampshire (3-4, 2-2) - Favored in 2 of their last 4
Towson (3-4, 2-2) - Favored in 2 of their last 4
Delaware (3-4, 2-3) - Favored in 2 of their last 4
Maine (3-4, 2-3) - Favored in none of their last 4


SOCON
ETSU is the only SOCON team that can feel very comfortable. Chattanooga is probably sitting in the best shapen in the group of teams with work left to do but VMI also has a decent shot. Samford still has to play Florida so it's unlikely they'll hang around. I would guess 2 or 3 bids out of the SOCON depending on what happens elsewhere.

Should be in (1):
ETSU (7-1, 4-1) - Favored in all of their remaining 3

Work left to do (4):
Mercer (5-2, 4-1) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 3
VMI (5-2, 3-1) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 4
Chattanooga (4-3, 3-1) - Favored in all of their remaining 4
Furman (4-3, 2-2) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 4

Must win out (1):
Samford (3-4, 2-3) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 4


AQ7
Sam Houston should waltz in as the autobid. EKU will be an interesting team if they finish 8-3 (assuming that final loss is to SHSU). SFA has a decent shot to win out as well (ACU does not). I think it's definitely possible that the AQ7 swipes an at-large.

Should be in (1):
SHSU (6-0, 4-0) - Favored in all of the remaining 4

Work left to do (1):
EKU (5-2, 2-0) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 4

Must win out (2):
ACU (4-3, 1-2) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 4
SFA (3-3, 0-2) - Favored in 3 of their remaining 4


Southland
The autobid likely comes down to who wins the SLU@UIW matchup in a couple weeks but Nicholls could still make a mess of things. I'm not even sure McNeese makes it if they win out with that D2 loss but they'd have stacked up some impressive wins at the end of the season.

Should be in (1):
SLU (6-1, 4-0) - Favored in all of their remaining 4

Work left to do (1):
UIW (5-2, 3-1) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 4

Must win out (2):
McNeese (3-4, 2-2) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 4
Nicholls (3-4, 1-3) - Favored in 3 of their remaining 4


Others (likely autobid denoted by an *)
The bubble could tighten if KSU and UTM don't win their respective league autos as both would definitely get an at-large at 9-2 and could get one at 8-3 even. I'd say there's an outside chance that the Patriot League could get an at-large if Fordham gets the auto and Holy Cross wins out other than their game with Fordham. I think we could also see a SWAC team or two contend for an at-large as well but with so many unknowns around who will play in the SWAC title game at this point I didn't include any of them yet.

Should be in (2):
Big South - KSU* (6-1, 3-0) - Favored in all of their remaining 4
OVC - UTM* (6-1, 2-0) - Favored in all of their remaining 4

Work left to do (1):
Patriot - Holy Cross* (5-2, 2-0) - Favored in all of their remaining 4

Must win out (3):
Big South - Monmouth (4-3, 3-0) - Favored in 3 of their remaining 4
OVC - Tennessee St (4-3, 2-1) - Favored in none of their remaining 4
OVC - APSU (3-4, 1-1) - Favored in 3 of their remaining 4


So I'm going to say with 13 at-large up for grabs that the Big Sky gets 5, the MVFC gets 4, and CAA gets 2, and the SOCON gets 1. After that the last one could also go the SOCON, the AQ7, the SLC, or one of the leagues mentioned in the others group. If the bubble tightens that might knock the Big Sky down to 4 at-large or the CAA down all the way to 1. Of course the MVFC meat grinder could claim some victims as well which would soften the bubble up.

I'm not going to put together a projected field or bracket beyond this but I'd be interested to see one if anyone wanted to or has put one together. Otherwise, discuss away what you think I missed or messed up here.

Terrific breakdown here, PC. Thanks for the efforting!

[Professor Chaos]

I would have South Dakota State favored against North Dakota State especially if Cam Miller is the quarterback going forward. That South Dakota State defensive line was active against North Dakota State in the spring, and Miller didn't perform well against Sam Houston in the playoff game in Huntsville against that defensive line. The Jackrabbits just simply beat up North Dakota State in Fargo in the spring. Rhode Island to me, even at 7-4, is not a playoff team. Their 5-0 start was absolutely fraudulent, and they were boat raced this past weekend by Villanova, 44-0.
I'd have SDSU favored against NDSU no matter which QB NDSU starts. I'm not confident at all in my Bison for that game right now and even with SDSU's recent struggles I think they're the favorite based on it being in Brookings. I'd probably favor the Bison if it were in Fargo.

Also, Cam Miller was a true freshman last spring... I'd hope he's improved a lot from the experience he got there and from his experience so far this fall. Hopefully we'll get to find out.

[acbearkat]

I personally think SFA is done in terms of a playoff bid. Jacksonville State has a chance because of the win over Florida State if they can win out, which with the way the Gamecocks have played is highly unlikely. I think John Grass is done after the season. Jacksonville State is just not any good this year, and easily could be winless. Could Jacksonville State go 4-7? I don't think that's out of the realm of possibilities. I don't think the Lamar game will be easy for them, as the Cardinals have improved since their 56-0 blowout loss at home to Abilene Christian. I know they haven't won any of their last three games, but they have looked better.

[Chalupa Batman]

I would have South Dakota State favored against North Dakota State especially if Cam Miller is the quarterback going forward. That South Dakota State defensive line was active against North Dakota State in the spring, and Miller didn't perform well against Sam Houston in the playoff game in Huntsville against that defensive line. The Jackrabbits just simply beat up North Dakota State in Fargo in the spring. Rhode Island to me, even at 7-4, is not a playoff team. Their 5-0 start was absolutely fraudulent, and they were boat raced this past weekend by Villanova, 44-0.

Cam is a much better option going forward. When teams blitz us QP2 can’t make them pay by hitting short & intermediate passes so teams just blitz us more. Cam is way more accurate with his arm, which will keep teams from run blitzing us so much and opening up the run game. SDSU/NDSU game at this point is pretty much a tossup.

Agree with Rhode Island. They SHOULDN’T be a playoff team at 7-4, but I’m pretty sure they would be.

[AgentL]

Great write up! Are you basing all your ‘favored to win’ on Massey Ratings?

[Professor Chaos]

Great write up! Are you basing all your ‘favored to win’ on Massey Ratings?
Yes. So not a perfect measure and they'll change depending on how teams perform next week and onward but a pretty good look at the remaining SoS for the teams in contention.

[Professor Chaos]

Projected field as of now based on the AGS Poll consensus.

Autobids:
AQ7 - Sam Houston (1)
MVFC - North Dakota St (2)
CAA - Villanova (4)
Big Sky - Montana St (5)
SLC - Southeastern Louisiana (7T)
SOCON - East Tennessee St (12)
Big South - Kennesaw St (13)
OVC - Tennessee-Martin (14)
Patriot - Holy Cross (32)
NEC - Bryant (NR)
Pioneer - Davidson (NR)

At-large:
1. Southern Illinois (3)
2. James Madison (6)
3. Eastern Washington (7T)
4. UC Davis (9)
5. South Dakota St (10)
6. Montana (11)
7. Northern Iowa (15)
8. Sacramento St (16)
9. Missouri St (17)
10. South Dakota (19)
11. VMI (20)
12. Incarnate Word (21)
13. Weber St (23)

First four out:
Chattanooga (25)
Eastern Kentucky (26)
William & Mary (27)
Mercer (28)

By conference:
Big Sky - 6
MVFC - 6
CAA - 2
SOCON - 2
Southland - 2
AQ7/Big South/OVC/Patriot/NEC/Pioneer - 1 each

[Houndawg]

I think SDSU is fine still. They can probably drop 2 of their last 4 and still make it in on the weight of their reputation and their win over Colorado St. If they do finish at 7-4 though they have a sub-D1 win that the committee could use as an excuse to ding them. Still, I think they're in at 7-4 regardless.

I think USD is in trouble. They're going to have to beat either SDSU at home or NDSU on the road to get to 7 wins. And their other game @WIU isn't a walk in the park either. I know WIU is 1-7 but they were a 2 point conversion away from beating SIU and they only lost to EWU by 6 n Macomb. It's just a weird place to play so USD needs to avoid tripping up there as well.

I do agree that the UND @ Missouri St game this Saturday is huge. If MSU drops that one they're in a lot of trouble given they'd have to win out and have tough games @SIU and vs UNI right after that. If UND wins that game they're probably going into SDSU in week 12 at 6-4 in a win-and-you're-in scenario.

I think UNI can lose this weekend to SIU but then they need to beat Missouri St in Springfield in a few weeks which is pretty much a coin flip at this point. I'm surprised that Massey gives UNI a 59% chance to beat SIU this week (predicted score of 27-24). SIU is coming off a bye and UNI may be in store for a let down, even against a rival, after their huge win last week.

We're missing two All-Ameicans (WR,CB), our starting Center, and two leading tacklers from the spring season for the past three weeks. If we got some of them healthy over the bye week we have a chance of pulling off the upset at the UNI dome.

[nevadagriz]

Would you seed Montana if they win out, beat a ranked MSU, finish 9-2 with a five game win streak? ( will not happen too many injuries and cats are just better this year)
Only losses to ranked EWU and Sac St

[uofmman1122]

Would you seed Montana if they win out, beat a ranked MSU, finish 9-2 with a five game win streak? ( will not happen too many injuries and cats are just better this year)
Only losses to ranked EWU and Sac St
It really depends on what the rest of the field looks like, but I don't see how we aren't at the very least considered for the 6-8 seed if we do indeed win out.

I share your skepticism on that actually happening, too, however. lol

[MSUBobcat]

Would you seed Montana if they win out, beat a ranked MSU, finish 9-2 with a five game win streak? ( will not happen too many injuries and cats are just better this year)
Only losses to ranked EWU and Sac St

As uofmman stated, it depends on the rest of the field, but I would think you need Davis to beat Sac in the Causeway Classic (very possible). If Sac goes 9-2 on a 8 game win streak, only losses to UNI and FBS Cal, with wins over a ranked UM and ranked Davis, AND the head-to-head, they'd get the 2nd Big Sky seed, IMO. Especially if UNI wins 3 of its last 4 games (no easy task, but doable).

If MSU loses to EWU in a couple weeks, and everything else goes chalk (including EWU beating Davis on the road), the Causeway Classic and the Brawl will create an interesting decision for the Selection Committee. Unless they give the winners of both games a 6-8 seed, which I suppose could be possible.

[BlackNGoldR3v0lut10n]

I
SOCON
ETSU is the only SOCON team that can feel very comfortable. Chattanooga is probably sitting in the best shapen in the group of teams with work left to do but VMI also has a decent shot. Samford still has to play Florida so it's unlikely they'll hang around. I would guess 2 or 3 bids out of the SOCON depending on what happens elsewhere.

Should be in (1):
ETSU (7-1, 4-1) - Favored in all of their remaining 3

Work left to do (4):
Mercer (5-2, 4-1) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 3
VMI (5-2, 3-1) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 4
Chattanooga (4-3, 3-1) - Favored in all of their remaining 4
Furman (4-3, 2-2) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 4

Must win out (1):
Samford (3-4, 2-3) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 4

I will speak to the SoCon side of the playoffs. We have four one conference loss teams remaining. VMI has wins against two of them (Chattanooga and Mercer) while Chattanooga beat ETSU. I like ETSU's chances of winning out and going to the playoffs but the team to watch is Chattanooga. If they and ETSU win out, Chattanooga scores the autobid and ETSU gets an at-large. Should VMI beat ETSU (assuming they beat Samford), you might as well pencil in VMI as the SoCon autobid winner.

Likely playoff teams are as follows:
ETSU - Biggest threats: VMI (Nov. 6), Mercer (Nov. 20)
VMI - Biggest threats: ETSU (Nov. 6), Furman (Nov. 13)
Mercer - Biggest threats: Chattanooga (Nov. 13), ETSU (Nov. 20)
Chattanooga - Biggest threats: Furman (Oct. 30), Mercer (Nov. 13) (FUBEAR you selling tickets to the Furman bandwagon this Saturday and the Mercer bandwagon on Nov. 13)
Furman - Biggest threats: Chattanooga (Oct. 30), VMI (Nov. 13)
Samford - stick a fork in them, they have losses against three of the above (ETSU, Chattanooga and Mercer)

[FUBeAR]

Projected field as of now based on the AGS Poll consensus.

Autobids:
AQ7 - Sam Houston (1)
MVFC - North Dakota St (2)
CAA - Villanova (4)
Big Sky - Montana St (5)
SLC - Southeastern Louisiana (7T)
SOCON - East Tennessee St (12)
Big South - Kennesaw St (13)
OVC - Tennessee-Martin (14)
Patriot - Holy Cross (32)
NEC - Bryant (NR)
Pioneer - Davidson (NR)

At-large:
1. Southern Illinois (3)
2. James Madison (6)
3. Eastern Washington (7T)
4. UC Davis (9)
5. South Dakota St (10)
6. Montana (11)
7. Northern Iowa (15)
8. Sacramento St (16)
9. Missouri St (17)
10. South Dakota (19)
11. VMI (20)
12. Incarnate Word (21)
13. Weber St (23)

First four out:
Chattanooga (25)
Eastern Kentucky (26)
William & Mary (27)
Mercer (28)

By conference:
Big Sky - 6
MVFC - 6
CAA - 2
SOCON - 2
Southland - 2
AQ7/Big South/OVC/Patriot/NEC/Pioneer - 1 each
Massey Ratings - not ‘Gospel’…just an easy tool to use for sake of discussion - projects that both South Dakota & Missouri State will finish with 6-5/4-4 records.

* Missouri State has the head-to-head win over South Dakota.

* One of Missouri State’s projected 6 wins is over transitioning, currently 0-7, Dixie State, who, BTW, has also ‘provided’ record-padding, largely non-competitive W’s for also-playoff-At-Large-bid-projected SacSt, WeberSt, UC-Davis, SDSU, and Montana

* All of South Dakota’s actual & projected W’s are / are projected to be over fully-qualified FCS Teams.

So…assuming Mr. Massey is correct…

1) do both Missouri State & South Dakota get in with 6-5/4-4 records & 1 of Missouri State’s W’s somewhat ‘less than?’

2) does Missouri State (only) get in because of their H2H W over South Dakota, despite their ‘less than’ W over DixieSt?

3) does South Dakota (only) get in because, despite the H2H loss, Missouri State’s ‘less than’ W over Dixie St means they are really 5-5 vs. South Dakota’s 6-5 vs. like-competition?

4) do neither get in because 6-5/4-4 just isn’t a Playoff-worthy resume, particularly with 1 of those Teams having a really ‘less than’ W on their resume?

[Daytripper]

I thought with only 4 weeks to go in the regular season it was time to get some discussion going about prognosticating the playoffs now that we've got a pretty good idea of how the conferences are shaping. I've broken it down by conference and grouped teams together based on how good or not good I think their playoff chances are. The "Should be in" category is teams I think will be in unless they have an upset or two down the road. The "Work left to do" category is teams that have some margin for error but not a lot. I based my favored by on Massey's win percentage listed under each team at https://masseyratings.com/cf2021/fcs/ratings


MVFC
The top 3 look to be in if they don't take multiple upsets. Of those with work left to do UNI is sitting the best but Missouri St is in decent shape as well. South Dakota might have a rough go of it. Of the group that must win out only UND has a shot IMO. 5 seems the likeliest number of playoff teams from the MVFC.

Should be in (3):
NDSU (7-0, 4-0) - Favored in 3 of their remaining 4
SIU (6-1, 4-0) - Favored in 3 of their remaining 4
SDSU (5-2, 2-2) - Favored in all of their remaining 4

Work left to do (3):
South Dakota (5-3, 3-2) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 3
Missouri St (4-3, 3-2) - Favored in 2 of their reamining 4
UNI (4-3, 2-2) - Favored in all of their remaining 4

Must win out (4):
Indiana St (4-4, 2-3) - Favored in none of their remaining 3
UND (3-4, 1-3) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 4
Illinois St (3-4, 1-3) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 4
YSU (2-4, 1-3) - Favored in none of their remaining 4


Big Sky
The Big Sky looks like they'll get 5 easily unless some craziness happens down the streth. I think Weber St has a chance to make it even at 6-5 given how tough their schedule is but they could/should win out. The two that must win out are almost certainly not going to. I still think the Big Sky probably gets 6.

Should be in (5):
Montana St (7-1, 5-0) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 3
EWU (7-1, 4-1) - Favored in all of their remaining 3
UC Davis (7-1, 4-1) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 3
Sacramento St (5-2, 4-0) - Favored in 3 of their remaining 4
Montana (5-2, 2-2) - Favored in all of their remaining 4

Work left to do (1):
Weber St (3-4, 2-2) - Favored in all of their remaining 4

Must win out (2):
Northern Arizona (3-4, 2-2) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 4
Portland St (3-4, 2-2) - Favored in 1 of thir remaining 4


CAA
Only looks like 2 for sure in the CAA and those 2 could be wrecking crews for the group in the work left to do category. Rhode Island is sitting in the best shape of that group with a very winnable FBS game (UMass) that could really bolster their chances. It seems highly unlikely anyone in the group that must win out will get there. I'm going to say the CAA only gets 3 as of now.

Should be in (2):
Villanova (6-1, 4-0) - Favored in all of their remaining 4
JMU (6-1, 4-1) - Favored in all of their remaining 4

Work left to do (3):
William & Mary (5-2, 3-1) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 4
Elon (4-3, 3-1) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 4
Rhode Island (5-2, 3-2) - Favored in 2 of their last 4

Must win out (4):
New Hampshire (3-4, 2-2) - Favored in 2 of their last 4
Towson (3-4, 2-2) - Favored in 2 of their last 4
Delaware (3-4, 2-3) - Favored in 2 of their last 4
Maine (3-4, 2-3) - Favored in none of their last 4


SOCON
ETSU is the only SOCON team that can feel very comfortable. Chattanooga is probably sitting in the best shapen in the group of teams with work left to do but VMI also has a decent shot. Samford still has to play Florida so it's unlikely they'll hang around. I would guess 2 or 3 bids out of the SOCON depending on what happens elsewhere.

Should be in (1):
ETSU (7-1, 4-1) - Favored in all of their remaining 3

Work left to do (4):
Mercer (5-2, 4-1) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 3
VMI (5-2, 3-1) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 4
Chattanooga (4-3, 3-1) - Favored in all of their remaining 4
Furman (4-3, 2-2) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 4

Must win out (1):
Samford (3-4, 2-3) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 4


AQ7
Sam Houston should waltz in as the autobid. EKU will be an interesting team if they finish 8-3 (assuming that final loss is to SHSU). SFA has a decent shot to win out as well (ACU does not). I think it's definitely possible that the AQ7 swipes an at-large.

Should be in (1):
SHSU (6-0, 4-0) - Favored in all of the remaining 4

Work left to do (1):
EKU (5-2, 2-0) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 4

Must win out (2):
ACU (4-3, 1-2) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 4
SFA (3-3, 0-2) - Favored in 3 of their remaining 4


Southland
The autobid likely comes down to who wins the SLU@UIW matchup in a couple weeks but Nicholls could still make a mess of things. I'm not even sure McNeese makes it if they win out with that D2 loss but they'd have stacked up some impressive wins at the end of the season.

Should be in (1):
SLU (6-1, 4-0) - Favored in all of their remaining 4

Work left to do (1):
UIW (5-2, 3-1) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 4

Must win out (2):
McNeese (3-4, 2-2) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 4
Nicholls (3-4, 1-3) - Favored in 3 of their remaining 4


Others (likely autobid denoted by an *)
The bubble could tighten if KSU and UTM don't win their respective league autos as both would definitely get an at-large at 9-2 and could get one at 8-3 even. I'd say there's an outside chance that the Patriot League could get an at-large if Fordham gets the auto and Holy Cross wins out other than their game with Fordham. I think we could also see a SWAC team or two contend for an at-large as well but with so many unknowns around who will play in the SWAC title game at this point I didn't include any of them yet.

Should be in (2):
Big South - KSU* (6-1, 3-0) - Favored in all of their remaining 4
OVC - UTM* (6-1, 2-0) - Favored in all of their remaining 4

Work left to do (1):
Patriot - Holy Cross* (5-2, 2-0) - Favored in all of their remaining 4

Must win out (3):
Big South - Monmouth (4-3, 3-0) - Favored in 3 of their remaining 4
OVC - Tennessee St (4-3, 2-1) - Favored in none of their remaining 4
OVC - APSU (3-4, 1-1) - Favored in 3 of their remaining 4


So I'm going to say with 13 at-large up for grabs that the Big Sky gets 5, the MVFC gets 4, and CAA gets 2, and the SOCON gets 1. After that the last one could also go the SOCON, the AQ7, the SLC, or one of the leagues mentioned in the others group. If the bubble tightens that might knock the Big Sky down to 4 at-large or the CAA down all the way to 1. Of course the MVFC meat grinder could claim some victims as well which would soften the bubble up.

I'm not going to put together a projected field or bracket beyond this but I'd be interested to see one if anyone wanted to or has put one together. Otherwise, discuss away what you think I missed or messed up here.

I just need to know WTF happened to Central Arkansas? Bear? Where are you?

[Professor Chaos]

Massey Ratings - not ‘Gospel’…just an easy tool to use for sake of discussion - projects that both South Dakota & Missouri State will finish with 6-5/4-4 records.

* Missouri State has the head-to-head win over South Dakota.

* One of Missouri State’s projected 6 wins is over transitioning, currently 0-7, Dixie State, who, BTW, has also ‘provided’ record-padding, largely non-competitive W’s for also-playoff-At-Large-bid-projected SacSt, WeberSt, UC-Davis, SDSU, and Montana

* All of South Dakota’s actual & projected W’s are / are projected to be over fully-qualified FCS Teams.

So…assuming Mr. Massey is correct…

1) do both Missouri State & South Dakota get in with 6-5/4-4 records & 1 of Missouri State’s W’s somewhat ‘less than?’

2) does Missouri State (only) get in because of their H2H W over South Dakota, despite their ‘less than’ W over DixieSt?

3) does South Dakota (only) get in because, despite the H2H loss, Missouri State’s ‘less than’ W over Dixie St means they are really 5-5 vs. South Dakota’s 6-5 vs. like-competition?

4) do neither get in because 6-5/4-4 just isn’t a Playoff-worthy resume, particularly with 1 of those Teams having a really ‘less than’ W on their resume?
I don't think either gets in at 6-5. I think the only 6-5 team that would have a shot would be Weber St just because their losses are all against tough teams (although that 5th loss would have to be an ugly one given their remaining schedule) and they have that win over EWU. Maybe UNI would have a shot at 6-5 with wins over SDSU and Sac St if their last two losses are SIU and @Missouri St but that's about the only 6-5 MVFC team I could see having an argument.

[uofmman1122]

I don't think either gets in at 6-5. I think the only 6-5 team that would have a shot would be Weber St just because their losses are all against tough teams (although that 5th loss would have to be an ugly one given their remaining schedule) and they have that win over EWU. Maybe UNI would have a shot at 6-5 with wins over SDSU and Sac St if their last two losses are SIU and @Missouri St but that's about the only 6-5 MVFC team I could see having an argument.
Weber plays weak teams to finish (Idaho St, Portland St, SUU, UNC). If they lose one more and fall to 6-5, they have 0 chance of making the playoffs.

[FUBeAR]

I don't think either gets in at 6-5. I think the only 6-5 team that would have a shot would be Weber St just because their losses are all against tough teams (although that 5th loss would have to be an ugly one given their remaining schedule) and they have that win over EWU. Maybe UNI would have a shot at 6-5 with wins over SDSU and Sac St if their last two losses are SIU and @Missouri St but that's about the only 6-5 MVFC team I could see having an argument.Fair enough. Appreciate your insight.

Now…Incarnate Word.

Massey projects 7-4/5-3 with 2 of those W’s over, currently, 0-7 Houston Baptist and 1 over 1-6 Northwestern St. They also have losses to 2-4 Youngstown & 3-4 McNeese. Looks like their ‘good wins’ are over Prairie View (Massey #65 FCS) and an FBS W over 2-5 G5 TxSt (would be FCS #18 per Massey).

Assuming Mr. Massey’s projections are correct for Word, is that a Playoff At-Large worthy resume?

Looks ‘on the bubble’ (at best) to FUBeAR, but FUBeAR is not very often Vulcan mind-melded with the thinking of the Playoff Selection Committee ,

[Professor Chaos]

Fair enough. Appreciate your insight.

Now…Incarnate Word.

Massey projects 7-4/5-3 with 2 of those W’s over, currently, 0-7 Houston Baptist and 1 over 1-6 Northwestern St. They also have losses to 2-4 Youngstown & 3-4 McNeese. Looks like their ‘good wins’ are over Prairie View (Massey #65 FCS) and an FBS W over 2-5 G5 TxSt (would be FCS #18 per Massey).

Assuming Mr. Massey’s projections are correct for Word, is that a Playoff At-Large worthy resume?

Looks ‘on the bubble’ (at best) to FUBeAR, but FUBeAR is not very often Vulcan mind-melded with the thinking of the Playoff Selection Committee ,
That's a good question... I think they'd need a good amount of help to get in at 7-4 since I'd guess they'll be on the wrong side of the coin if they're compared with most 7-4 teams from the Big Sky, MVFC, CAA, or SOCON.

I do wonder how the committee will judge that UIW loss to McNeese considering it was a one score loss on the road a month after they dominated McNeese in a shutout win at home? Never really had precedence for this scenario where conference teams play each other twice in the same regular season.

[Reign of Terrier]

Projected field as of now based on the AGS Poll consensus.

Autobids:
AQ7 - Sam Houston (1)
MVFC - North Dakota St (2)
CAA - Villanova (4)
Big Sky - Montana St (5)
SLC - Southeastern Louisiana (7T)
SOCON - East Tennessee St (12)
Big South - Kennesaw St (13)
OVC - Tennessee-Martin (14)
Patriot - Holy Cross (32)
NEC - Bryant (NR)
Pioneer - Davidson (NR)

At-large:
1. Southern Illinois (3)
2. James Madison (6)
3. Eastern Washington (7T)
4. UC Davis (9)
5. South Dakota St (10)
6. Montana (11)
7. Northern Iowa (15)
8. Sacramento St (16)
9. Missouri St (17)
10. South Dakota (19)
11. VMI (20)
12. Incarnate Word (21)
13. Weber St (23)

First four out:
Chattanooga (25)
Eastern Kentucky (26)
William & Mary (27)
Mercer (28)

By conference:
Big Sky - 6
MVFC - 6
CAA - 2
SOCON - 2
Southland - 2
AQ7/Big South/OVC/Patriot/NEC/Pioneer - 1 each

Maybe I'm just a naive naive socon homer, but I feel like there is something fundamentally broken with the playoff system if we have 2 conferences accounting for half of the field. Now, obviously, this is based on the AGS poll (it more than likely won't happen), but I just think that's obviously rigged if it happens.

[Reign of Terrier]

I will speak to the SoCon side of the playoffs. We have four one conference loss teams remaining. VMI has wins against two of them (Chattanooga and Mercer) while Chattanooga beat ETSU. I like ETSU's chances of winning out and going to the playoffs but the team to watch is Chattanooga. If they and ETSU win out, Chattanooga scores the autobid and ETSU gets an at-large. Should VMI beat ETSU (assuming they beat Samford), you might as well pencil in VMI as the SoCon autobid winner.

Likely playoff teams are as follows:
ETSU - Biggest threats: VMI (Nov. 6), Mercer (Nov. 20)
VMI - Biggest threats: ETSU (Nov. 6), Furman (Nov. 13)
Mercer - Biggest threats: Chattanooga (Nov. 13), ETSU (Nov. 20)
Chattanooga - Biggest threats: Furman (Oct. 30), Mercer (Nov. 13) (FUBEAR you selling tickets to the Furman bandwagon this Saturday and the Mercer bandwagon on Nov. 13)
Furman - Biggest threats: Chattanooga (Oct. 30), VMI (Nov. 13)
Samford - stick a fork in them, they have losses against three of the above (ETSU, Chattanooga and Mercer)

The way I see it: ETSU needs one win to get in the playoffs. They'll have 8 wins and an FBS quality win, including the 7 D1 wins. Even a lost to Western, they have one of the better resumes out there with that Vandy win, love it or hate it.

Mercer is solidly on the bubble if they finish 7-3, but will be in good shape if the two ahead of them are VMI and ETSU. The committee likes a little bit of internal logic (don't ask me to explain it), so if their two losses are to two teams that finish 8-3 or better, they won't count against them.

VMI can afford one more loss, but after that, the Citadel loss will hang around them. And that loss can't be to Samford or Western either. Of the teams in consideration in the Socon right now, they have the worst loss. I think in the early part of the season I was queuing up a four bid socon post (and then Conklin destroyed my enthusiasm) and one of the things that needs to fall into place is a somewhat logical rank-order to the league, top-to-bottom. If VMI somehow beats Furman and ETSU but loses to Samford and or Western (I wouldn't put it past them, given their inconsistency this year), that's probably the worst thing that can happen to the league in terms of playoff consideration, because an 8-3 VMI paradoxically looks weak, as do the teams that lost to them.

Chattanooga and Furman need to win out, as 7-4 on the bubble wouldn't look great for them. Furman would probably be a stronger 7-4 team than Chattanooga because of their OOC win. Again, it all depends on the rank-order. A logical rank order where a third or fourth place team has a quality W and 7-8 wins looks good on the conference.

IMO it's more likely that the Socon has 4 7 win teams they hey have 3 8-win teams. In a just world, I think the socon would get 3 in no matter what, but to solidify it, they'll need 3 8 win teams. Weirdly enough, if they have that many 8 win teams and a team sitting at 7-4, if that 7-4 team is Furman or Chattanooga, I think they could sneak in. Remember, in 2016, the socon had a similar scenario between 10-1 citadel, 8-3 Wofford, 8-3 Chattanooga, and Samford snuck in (they shouldn't have) at 6-5 because Samford had a good win against Wofford and maybe another playoff team OOC (Can't remember who, not effort posting today)

Either way, when the Big sky or MVFC sneak in a crazy amount of teams, it's because many conferences don't have many teams that eclipse that 8 win mark (whether it's bolstered by an NAIA win or not). They key for abundant Socon schools is to "leave no doubt." Mercer is the wild card here. They really screwed themselves over (in terms of at large consideration) with only having 10 games scheduled. Furman got kind of ripped off in 2018, but they only won 6 games total (and lost 4, more importantly).

Had mercer played another FCS team and could hypothetically finish 8-3 or 9-2, I would say that they are almost certainly in, if they won their next two. Again, that's a lot of ifs.

There is a scenario where the socon gets 4 in. I don't know how likely it is (other than baseline "unlikely") because it's really messy right now. If Mercer played 11 games and VMI didn't lose to the Citadel, I'd say the top 3 + Furman/Chatt winner were "probable" but that's not the reality we live.

[Professor Chaos]

Some good details from Craig Haley on how the SWAC teams stand in terms of at-large consideration:

https://twitter.com/CraigHaley/status/1453064383047815168

[Professor]

FAMU needs a lot of help

[Milktruck74]

The way I see it: ETSU needs one win to get in the playoffs. They'll have 8 wins and an FBS quality win, including the 7 D1 wins. Even a lost to Western, they have one of the better resumes out there with that Vandy win, love it or hate it.

Mercer is solidly on the bubble if they finish 7-3, but will be in good shape if the two ahead of them are VMI and ETSU. The committee likes a little bit of internal logic (don't ask me to explain it), so if their two losses are to two teams that finish 8-3 or better, they won't count against them.

VMI can afford one more loss, but after that, the Citadel loss will hang around them. And that loss can't be to Samford or Western either. Of the teams in consideration in the Socon right now, they have the worst loss. I think in the early part of the season I was queuing up a four bid socon post (and then Conklin destroyed my enthusiasm) and one of the things that needs to fall into place is a somewhat logical rank-order to the league, top-to-bottom. If VMI somehow beats Furman and ETSU but loses to Samford and or Western (I wouldn't put it past them, given their inconsistency this year), that's probably the worst thing that can happen to the league in terms of playoff consideration, because an 8-3 VMI paradoxically looks weak, as do the teams that lost to them.

Chattanooga and Furman need to win out, as 7-4 on the bubble wouldn't look great for them. Furman would probably be a stronger 7-4 team than Chattanooga because of their OOC win. Again, it all depends on the rank-order. A logical rank order where a third or fourth place team has a quality W and 7-8 wins looks good on the conference.

IMO it's more likely that the Socon has 4 7 win teams they hey have 3 8-win teams. In a just world, I think the socon would get 3 in no matter what, but to solidify it, they'll need 3 8 win teams. Weirdly enough, if they have that many 8 win teams and a team sitting at 7-4, if that 7-4 team is Furman or Chattanooga, I think they could sneak in. Remember, in 2016, the socon had a similar scenario between 10-1 citadel, 8-3 Wofford, 8-3 Chattanooga, and Samford snuck in (they shouldn't have) at 6-5 because Samford had a good win against Wofford and maybe another playoff team OOC (Can't remember who, not effort posting today)

Either way, when the Big sky or MVFC sneak in a crazy amount of teams, it's because many conferences don't have many teams that eclipse that 8 win mark (whether it's bolstered by an NAIA win or not). They key for abundant Socon schools is to "leave no doubt." Mercer is the wild card here. They really screwed themselves over (in terms of at large consideration) with only having 10 games scheduled. Furman got kind of ripped off in 2018, but they only won 6 games total (and lost 4, more importantly).

Had mercer played another FCS team and could hypothetically finish 8-3 or 9-2, I would say that they are almost certainly in, if they won their next two. Again, that's a lot of ifs.

There is a scenario where the socon gets 4 in. I don't know how likely it is (other than baseline "unlikely") because it's really messy right now. If Mercer played 11 games and VMI didn't lose to the Citadel, I'd say the top 3 + Furman/Chatt winner were "probable" but that's not the reality we live.

As discussed above, Massey Predictor is basically a good starting point which must be expanded upon...However as time goes on and Massey acquires more data, the predictor tool does gain accuracy.... So, if this is all based on Massey, Chattanooga is in the driver's seat for the Auto bid in the SoCon. But it is the SoCon and anybody can beat anybody on any day. But pulling from Massey, as far as the one loss teams go, Both UTC and ETSU are expected to win out (but UTC has the tie breaker head to head). VMI is expected to finish 2-2 in their remaining 4 games...however if they were to Win out, they would have the W over the Mountain Pirates and the head to head tiebreaker over the Mocs.

I know what I'd prefer to happen, but again...SoCon!!! My mind's most likely scenario is a 8-3 (7-1 SoCon Champ) Mocs team gets the Auto Bid, a 10-1 (7-1 SoCon Runner Up) Bucs team gets the at-large, and a really good VMI team goes 8-3(6-2) and gets left out. but again, SoCon!!!

[Panther88]

Some good details from Craig Haley on how the SWAC teams stand in terms of at-large consideration:

https://twitter.com/CraigHaley/status/1453064383047815168

That remarkable loss to IWU sort of sealed the deal, imho. Granted, it was an early game but still, a loss is a loss.

And that specific loss is VERY unacceptable.

[Bisonator]

Doubt the Big Sky gets 6 and unlikely the MVFC gets 6 either. There will be some upsets yet.

[Chalupa Batman]

Doubt the Big Sky gets 6 and unlikely the MVFC gets 6 either. There will be some upsets yet.

That all depends on Weber, if they win out to get to 7-4 they would be in (and they'll be solid favorites in their remaining games). They have 5 that are practically locks already with EWU, MSU, Sac. St., UC Davis, & Montana.

[Panther88]

Can you imagine an fbs playoff system which doesn't include the strong SEC conference?

That is what the fcs playoffs is missing by not including any SWAC school in its playoff system.

#good-luck-with-that

[Professor Chaos]

http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/tbt.gif

[Panther88]

http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/tbt.gif

https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/57dad930f5e231f8a020addd/1475002070986-F199KPJP37LMXVE7OX38/image-asset.gif?format=750w

[Panther88]

Which 3-8 or 4-7 MVFC or Big Sky team will make the fall 2021 fcs playoffs? xlolx

That is the ONLY question which needs to be answered. What a sham.

[acbearkat]

Which 3-8 or 4-7 MVFC or Big Sky team will make the fall 2021 fcs playoffs? xlolx

That is the ONLY question which needs to be answered. What a sham.

The answer is none.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[MSUBobcat]

http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/tbt.gif

xoutofrepx

[Panther88]

The answer is none.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Au contraire, Weber St.

[Reign of Terrier]

The answer is none.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

no no no no you see, it just means more in those conferences. The answer is all of them.

[MSUBobcat]

Au contraire, Weber St.

Well, BBQ is going to finish 7-4 not 4-7. But you already knew that. Accuracy doesn't help with your trolling tho....

[Panther88]

Well, BBQ is going to finish 7-4 not 4-7. But you already knew that. Accuracy doesn't help with your trolling tho....

Can I have the #s for the next quick pick since you're so firm on the future, Future Record Teller? xconfusedx

WS is 3-3 right now and ranked in the top 25. Duh. ::insert retarded smiley here for "it" ::

[Preferred Walk-On]

Can you imagine an fbs playoff system which doesn't include the strong MAC conference?

That is what the fcs playoffs is missing by not including any SWAC school in its playoff system.

#good-luck-with-that

FIFY. Ah, I'm just ****ing with you...or am I? xdontknowx

[MSUBobcat]

Which 3-8 or 4-7 MVFC or Big Sky team will make the fall 2021 fcs playoffs? xlolx

That is the ONLY question which needs to be answered. What a sham.


Can I have the #s for the next quick pick since you're so firm on the future, Future Record Teller? xconfusedx

WS is 3-3 right now and ranked in the top 25. Duh. ::insert retarded smiley here for "it" ::

xlolxxlolxxlolx

[Panther88]

xlolxxlolxxlolx

Don't let the truth distract you, Canada south. " xlolx xlolx xlolx "

Looking forward to seeing all 17 of you Thxgvg w/e on espn+14 lol.

[Katfan]

Can you imagine an fbs playoff system which doesn't include the strong SEC conference?

That is what the fcs playoffs is missing by not including any SWAC school in its playoff system.

#good-luck-with-that
good joke!

[Bisonoline]

Can you imagine an fbs playoff system which doesn't include the strong SEC conference?

That is what the fcs playoffs is missing by not including any SWAC school in its playoff system.

#good-luck-with-that

https://i.imgur.com/gJUHjAi.gif

[FUBeAR]

Well, BBQ is going to finish 7-4 not 4-7. But you already knew that. Accuracy doesn't help with your trolling tho....
At 7-4, Weber will have 1 good win sitting in the middle of a box of a half dozen Fluffy cream filled (currently, 9-35…on the average, a bunch of (currently) 1-6 Teams) cupcakes. They’ll probably be ‘in the conversation’ for a seed, but they’ll have no more business in the Playoffs than (currently 2-5) Citadel does with their ‘1 good win.’

[Panther88]

good joke!

Like the initial w/e and subsequent w/e of "fcs playoffs" played in front of 219 total fans, including the trainers and hydration personnel of the opposing team.

I'll start my lmao exercises earlier because the inevitable is just around the corner.

xlolx

[Professor Chaos]

At 7-4, Weber will have 1 good win sitting in the middle of a box of a half dozen Fluffy cream filled (currently, 9-35…on the average, a bunch of (currently) 1-6 Teams) cupcakes. They’ll probably be ‘in the conversation’ for a seed, but they’ll have no more business in the Playoffs than (currently 2-5) Citadel does with their ‘1 good win.’
Strength of schedule and having no bad losses matters. At 7-4 their only losses would be to JMU, UC Davis, Montana St, and Utah. So 3 likely playoff teams and a Pac-12 team. The Citadel already lost to Chuck South and Western Carolina (definitely not playoff teams). At 7-4, and riding a 5 game win streak, Weber would be practically a lock IMO with that one quality win.

[JSUSoutherner]

Can you imagine an fbs playoff system which doesn't include the strong SEC conference?

That is what the fcs playoffs is missing by not including any SWAC school in its playoff system.

#good-luck-with-that
The only reason the SEC looks so good is because they don't have to play against Coach Prime. xnodx

[FUBeAR]

Strength of schedule and having no bad losses matters. At 7-4 their only losses would be to JMU, UC Davis, Montana St, and Utah. So 3 likely playoff teams and a Pac-12 team. The Citadel already lost to Chuck South and Western Carolina (definitely not playoff teams). At 7-4, and riding a 5 game win streak, Weber would be practically a lock IMO with that one quality win.Following that logic, the Playoff Committee needs to give a long look at 0-7 Dixie State then. They’ve lost games to ranked, likely playoff Teams even better than Weber has. 5 of their losses to AGS Top 25 Teams. Think they should get a seed? Probably so…if only they were eligible for the Playoffs this year.

[MSUBobcat]

Following that logic, the Playoff Committee needs to give a long look at 0-7 Dixie State then. They’ve lost games to ranked, likely playoff Teams even better than Weber has. 5 of their losses to AGS Top 25 Teams. Think they should get a seed? Probably so…if only they were eligible for the Playoffs this year.

xrotatehx

[Chalupa Batman]

Following that logic, the Playoff Committee needs to give a long look at 0-7 Dixie State then. They’ve lost games to ranked, likely playoff Teams even better than Weber has. 5 of their losses to AGS Top 25 Teams. Think they should get a seed? Probably so…if only they were eligible for the Playoffs this year.

I’m not even sure what point you’re trying to make, but the one you are making is “I’m only arguing for the sake of arguing.”

[Reign of Terrier]

Strength of schedule and having no bad losses matters. At 7-4 their only losses would be to JMU, UC Davis, Montana St, and Utah. So 3 likely playoff teams and a Pac-12 team. The Citadel already lost to Chuck South and Western Carolina (definitely not playoff teams). At 7-4, and riding a 5 game win streak, Weber would be practically a lock IMO with that one quality win.


Following that logic, the Playoff Committee needs to give a long look at 0-7 Dixie State then. They’ve lost games to ranked, likely playoff Teams even better than Weber has. 5 of their losses to AGS Top 25 Teams. Think they should get a seed? Probably so…if only they were eligible for the Playoffs this year.

When people say "strength of schedule" what they really mean is "participation trophy."

For me, bad losses matter, strength of schedule matters, but also how well you do with your actual record. Because quite frankly, if you have like 3-5 "quality losses," you still have 3-5 losses. It's unfalsifiable to say you're a bad team, your schedule prohibits. It's like Vanderbilt one year going 4-8 but 1-8 in the SEC, but all of those losses coming to ranked teams by a single score, and the single good win against a top 25 opponent. Is Vanderbilt elite? Obviously not. Should they get bowl consideration over other teams with better records (6-6 or so) in other conferences?

I would say no. But if you think "quality losses" for some reason should be discounted, and that quality wins are also important, and the aggregate performance doesn't matter, they totally should.

It used to be that the playoffs were really easy to predict because it was hard to find more than 16 teams that had the requisite D1 wins (7ish), no bad losses, and a quality win. Top of my head: Wofford in 2006 lost to Coastal, Furman, and App (all playoff teams), and was a redzone turnover from tying South Carolina, with a two point conversion being a possible win. Did we make the playoffs that year? No. We had lots of quality losses (including a 7 point loss on the road against the defending champs), had a 5 win streak to end the year, much of which was by double digits. Did we make the playoffs? No. Was it controversial? Also no.

Now with 24 teams, the requisite wins are lower, which means there's too many solid resumes for 24. And so people ditch the records and advocate for "quality wins" and "quality losses" which sounds really sophisticated, but are actually just thinly-veiled appeals to conference affiliation.

[MSUBobcat]

Like the initial w/e and subsequent w/e of "fcs playoffs" played in front of 219 total fans, including the trainers and hydration personnel of the opposing team.

I'll start my lmao exercises earlier because the inevitable is just around the corner.

xlolx

All these years and I still can't figure out why you give so many ****s about attendance. xdontknowx FWIW... MSU does quite well in that area, behind only 2 SWAC schools in 2019, Jackson State and Alabama St., so you might want to work on your aim.

[FUBeAR]

xrotatehx

I’m not even sure what point you’re trying to make, but the one you are making is “I’m only arguing for the sake of arguing.”
https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/1061/1924/products/See_No_Evil_Monkey_Emoji_grande.png
https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/1061/1924/products/Hear_No_Evil_Monkey_Emoji_large.png

[Professor Chaos]

When people say "strength of schedule" what they really mean is "participation trophy."

For me, bad losses matter, strength of schedule matters, but also how well you do with your actual record. Because quite frankly, if you have like 3-5 "quality losses," you still have 3-5 losses. It's unfalsifiable to say you're a bad team, your schedule prohibits. It's like Vanderbilt one year going 4-8 but 1-8 in the SEC, but all of those losses coming to ranked teams by a single score, and the single good win against a top 25 opponent. Is Vanderbilt elite? Obviously not. Should they get bowl consideration over other teams with better records (6-6 or so) in other conferences?

I would say no. But if you think "quality losses" for some reason should be discounted, and that quality wins are also important, and the aggregate performance doesn't matter, they totally should.

It used to be that the playoffs were really easy to predict because it was hard to find more than 16 teams that had the requisite D1 wins (7ish), no bad losses, and a quality win. Top of my head: Wofford in 2006 lost to Coastal, Furman, and App (all playoff teams), and was a redzone turnover from tying South Carolina, with a two point conversion being a possible win. Did we make the playoffs that year? No. We had lots of quality losses (including a 7 point loss on the road against the defending champs), had a 5 win streak to end the year, much of which was by double digits. Did we make the playoffs? No. Was it controversial? Also no.

Now with 24 teams, the requisite wins are lower, which means there's too many solid resumes for 24. And so people ditch the records and advocate for "quality wins" and "quality losses" which sounds really sophisticated, but are actually just thinly-veiled appeals to conference affiliation.
Quality losses don't matter so much as a lack of bad losses do. Quality wins matter as do a lack of quality wins. Strength of schedule or lack thereof matters. Winning percentage matters. It all has to be taken into account. Weber St, at 7-4, would have the requisite win % in a conference as strong as the Big Sky for at-large consideration. Then you add in their top 10 SoS, the fact they have 0 bad losses, and one fantastic win (as it looks right now) vs EWU that paints the picture of a pretty well locked in at-large resume to me.

[MSUBobcat]

Quality losses don't matter so much as a lack of bad losses do. Quality wins matter as do a lack of quality wins. Strength of schedule or lack thereof matters. Winner percentage matters. It all has to be taken into account. Weber St, at 7-4, would have the requisite win % in a conference as strong as the Big Sky for at-large consideration. Then you add in their top 10 SoS, the fact they have 0 bad losses, and one fantastic win (as it looks right now) vs EWU that paints the picture of a pretty well locked in at-large resume to me.

I think Weber is up for consideration but if there's anyone even comparable, the selection committee will opt for one of the other options over a 6th Big Sky team. Right or wrong (i.e. Weber may be favored, possibly heavily, over the team that gets in over them), but the optics of having 25% of the field coming from any one conference just doesn't look good. Just my xtwocentsx

[Professor Chaos]

I think Weber is up for consideration but if there's anyone even comparable, the selection committee will opt for one of the other options over a 6th Big Sky team. Right or wrong (i.e. Weber may be favored, possibly heavily, over the team that gets in over them), but the optics of having 25% of the field coming from any one conference just doesn't look good. Just my xtwocentsx
The CAA got 6 in 2018 including a 6-4 Elon. I don't think the committee is too set on limiting numbers from a particular conference.

In fact that 2018 Elon team is an interesting case study. They finished 6-4 (4-3 - their conference game with W&M was cancelled) with an FBS loss and 3 losses to fellow CAA playoff teams. They had one really good win (@JMU) but they also had the benefit of a dominating win over a fellow bubble team (Furman). Pretty similar to the resume a 7-4 Weber St would have this year.

[MSUBobcat]

The CAA got 6 in 2018 including a 6-4 Elon. I don't think the committee is too set on limiting numbers from a particular conference.

In fact that 2018 Elon team is an interesting case study. They finished 6-4 (4-3 - their conference game with W&M was cancelled) with an FBS loss and 3 losses to fellow CAA playoff teams. They had one really good win (@JMU) but they also had the benefit of a dominating win over a fellow bubble team (Furman). Pretty similar to the resume a 7-4 Weber St would have this year.

PC, you're a goddamn encyclopedia of FCS knowledge!! Looking into that example may show why BBQ won't get the invite. Elon went on to lose in the first round to Wofford by 2 scores. Obviously this WSU team is not that Elon team. Personally, I think Weber would be a DAMN scary "last team in" that would give many playoff teams all they want and them some, especially in that first round.

[Chalupa Batman]

I think Weber is up for consideration but if there's anyone even comparable, the selection committee will opt for one of the other options over a 6th Big Sky team. Right or wrong (i.e. Weber may be favored, possibly heavily, over the team that gets in over them), but the optics of having 25% of the field coming from any one conference just doesn't look good. Just my xtwocentsx

It really depends on how large the bubble is. Right now it looks like 8 at-larges are pretty much claimed with 4 Big Sky teams, (loser of EWU/MSU, UC Davis, Montana, Sac State) 3 MVFC teams (SDSU, NDSU/SIU, & UNI-Missouri State winner), and 1 CAA team (JMU). That leaves 5 more at-larges up for grabs.

It’s possible that Rhode Island & William & Mary both get to 7-4 from the CAA, or 1 of them does or neither of them does. South Dakota & the UNI-Missouri State loser are both staring down the barrel of a 6-5 record, leaving the Valley with only has 4 teams at 7 or more wins. One or both of those could get to 7-4 as well. If Fordham beats Holy Cross and wins the Patriot, Holy Cross has a fairly good resume with an FBS win and the Monmouth win. Eastern Kentucky would probably need to win 3 of their last 4 games to get to 8-3 and be considered, but that’s not out of the realm of possibility. How many of Mercer, Furman, VMI, & Chattanooga get to 7-4 or better? Incarnate Word will likely end up on the bubble at 8-3 as well. Elon is another team that could be on the bubble too at 7-4 (which would mean a win down the stretch over Villanova or JMU).

That's up to 12 other teams besides Weber State that could be on the bubble. A large number of bubble teams at 7-4 may find Weber on the outside looking in, but they would almost be a lock to be selected over any of the above teams that finish 6-5 (or 7-4 in the case of EKU, UIW, & HC).

[FUBeAR]

The CAA got 6 in 2018 including a 6-4 Elon. I don't think the committee is too set on limiting numbers from a particular conference.

In fact that 2018 Elon team is an interesting case study. They finished 6-4 (4-3 - their conference game with W&M was cancelled) with an FBS loss and 3 losses to fellow CAA playoff teams. They had one really good win (@JMU) but they also had the benefit of a dominating win over a fellow bubble team (Furman). Pretty similar to the resume a 7-4 Weber St would have this year.
How did that 6th CAA Team do in the Playoffs?….

I just deleted the rest of my elaborate, fact-packed response with several phrases in all caps…and will just add…

EXCELLENT TROLLING! You almost got me.


GO SYCAMORES!!

[FUBeAR]

PC, you're a goddamn encyclopedia of FCS knowledge!! Looking into that example may show why BBQ won't get the invite. Elon went on to lose in the first round to Wofford by 2 scores. Obviously this WSU team is not that Elon team. Personally, I think Weber would be a DAMN scary "last team in" that would give many playoff teams all they want and them some, especially in that first round.LOL - you guys are working together now, huh?

Not gonna do it. Covid killed off the 2018 Playoff Selection memory cells in FUBeAR’s brain…

GO OPEN DATE! BEAT THE BOBCATS!!

[Professor Chaos]

PC, you're a goddamn encyclopedia of FCS knowledge!! Looking into that example may show why BBQ won't get the invite. Elon went on to lose in the first round to Wofford by 2 scores. Obviously this WSU team is not that Elon team. Personally, I think Weber would be a DAMN scary "last team in" that would give many playoff teams all they want and them some, especially in that first round.


How did that 6th CAA Team do in the Playoffs?….

I just deleted the rest of my elaborate, fact-packed response with several phrases in all caps…and will just add…

EXCELLENT TROLLING! You almost got me.


GO SYCAMORES!!
Maybe it has an indirect influence but I don't think the committee has the time or inclination to look through the historical playoff performance of the 2nd/3rd/Xth place team in any particular conference when they decide who's in and who's out. I'd say they have their hands full looking at metrics from the current season like SoS, good wins, bad losses, common opponents, etc.

[Hammerhead]

Patterson didn't do to well against pressure either and he didn't move around much in the backfield except to take off and run. Cam was a true freshman in the spring and the playbook seemed to be bigger when Cam went into the game compared to what we ran with Quincy at QB.


I would have South Dakota State favored against North Dakota State especially if Cam Miller is the quarterback going forward. That South Dakota State defensive line was active against North Dakota State in the spring, and Miller didn't perform well against Sam Houston in the playoff game in Huntsville against that defensive line. The Jackrabbits just simply beat up North Dakota State in Fargo in the spring. Rhode Island to me, even at 7-4, is not a playoff team. Their 5-0 start was absolutely fraudulent, and they were boat raced this past weekend by Villanova, 44-0.

[Panther88]

All these years and I still can't figure out why you give so many ****s about attendance. xdontknowx FWIW... MSU does quite well in that area, behind only 2 SWAC schools in 2019, Jackson State and Alabama St., so you might want to work on your aim.
Guy, your school is an anomaly from normal america. Yours is a one-trick pony in a one-trick small, densely populated state w/ no semblance of a metropolitan area or D-1 FBS school or pro sports team garnering media attention.

It's natural for everyone there to cruise their John Deere to football games and inflate your attendance #s.

Do you guys even have an airport not named regional and not requiring a crop duster w/in a 200 mile radius of your campus? 😂 xlolx

[MSUBobcat]

Guy, your school is an anomaly from normal america. Yours is a one-trick pony in a one-trick small, densely populated state w/ no semblance of a metropolitan area or D-1 FBS school or pro sports team garnering media attention.

It's natural for everyone there to cruise their John Deere to football games and inflate your attendance #s.

Do you guys even have an airport not named regional and not requiring a crop duster w/in a 200 mile radius of your campus?  xlolx

That the best you got? We choose to live here BECAUSE there's no metropolitan area. Please, don't come here. Thanks.

[JSUSoutherner]

It's natural for everyone there to cruise their John Deere to football games and inflate your attendance #s.

Do you guys even have an airport not named regional and not requiring a crop duster w/in a 200 mile radius of your campus?  xlolx

And you are from where?

[acbearkat]

That the best you got? We choose to live here BECAUSE there's no metropolitan area. Please, don't come here. Thanks.

He’s clearly trolling.


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[Milktruck74]

That the best you got? We choose to live here BECAUSE there's no metropolitan area. Please, don't come here. Thanks.

Aren't most of the SWAC schools Ag schools??? Just wondering???

[MSUBobcat]

He’s clearly trolling.


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Oh, I'm aware. I LOVE it when people talk trash about Montana. Our state nickname is "The Last Best Place" and literally millions upon millions of people come here every year to visit. Keep your traffic jams and concrete jungles. We're quite happy where we are and try to keep it secret as much as possible (not working very well tho).

[nevadagriz]

So the Swac is now equal to the SEC??? WTF The top 5 in the MVFC and BIGSKY would go undefeated in the SWAC! I would love to see Montana have a Home and Home with PRIME TIME

[Houndawg]

That the best you got? We choose to live here BECAUSE there's no metropolitan area. Please, don't come here. Thanks.

Go easy on him. You don't often get a chance to look down on someone when you're from Iowa

[Houndawg]

Oh, I'm aware. I LOVE it when people talk trash about Montana. Our state nickname is "The Last Best Place" and literally millions upon millions of people come here every year to visit. Keep your traffic jams and concrete jungles. We're quite happy where we are and try to keep it secret as much as possible (not working very well tho).

Most of you moved in from California.xcoffeex

[Panther88]

That the best you got? We choose to live here BECAUSE there's no metropolitan area. Please, don't come here. Thanks.

Nah, that's not the best and my honesty is viewed as trolling? I seriously care less about that or the ritalin induced bearkat's opine as well. :D

I stand by my truth. 321 humans at a round I "fcs playoff" game is forthcoming and I wouldn't be shocked to see an at-large gifted to a team w/ a losing record. We simply cannot wait to poke fun and loaooo. Don't let us down. xlolx

[Puddin Tane]

So the Swac is now equal to the SEC??? WTF The top 5 in the MVFC and BIGSKY would go undefeated in the SWAC! I would love to see Montana have a Home and Home with PRIME TIME

not saying much. Theyve played one team with a winning record and got curb stomped.

Almost wish we played em this year, we need a win. But, trouble follows em.

we play em next year. Hope they behave. Last time, they got to fighting and got pepper sprayed by their own security. Fricking classic.

[Catbooster]

Guy, your school is an anomaly from normal america. Yours is a one-trick pony in a one-trick small, densely populated state w/ no semblance of a metropolitan area or D-1 FBS school or pro sports team garnering media attention.

It's natural for everyone there to cruise their John Deere to football games and inflate your attendance #s.

Do you guys even have an airport not named regional and not requiring a crop duster w/in a 200 mile radius of your campus?  xlolx
A small state? Not really. A densely populated state? I've never heard it referred to that way. Those are the opposite of the usual stereotypes for Montana. You may want to read a little about US geography.

Our local airport is an International airport, but I'm not sure how that relates to W/L records and schedule strength of FCS football teams. Why do you try to turn a discussion about those topics into an uninformed attempt to put down where someone chooses to live? Pretty weak debate skills.

[Katfan]

That the best you got? We choose to live here BECAUSE there's no metropolitan area. Please, don't come here. Thanks.
Thats all they got because they suck at football. Wait, their band is legit!

[Panther88]

Thats all they got because they suck at football. Wait, their band is legit!

Nah, we suck because we handed that trash team in prison-ville a gift on a silver platter the last time we played your overrated team when it was ranked #4. *gasp!*

We have one blemish on our record this year gifting the trash incarnates while experimenting (not caring about OOC victories coupled w/ experimental playcalling, again).

The truth hurts to the core, I'm factually certain. And tell that lil' hee-haw HS band to look more professional for a home game vs wearing varying array of tee-shirts/shorts on gameday. "deeeeep in da' hearrrrrt of texasssss...." Trash.

Taking turns on each other over here. Amazing. lol

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A small state? Not really. A densely populated state? I've never heard it referred to that way. Those are the opposite of the usual stereotypes for Montana. You may want to read a little about US geography.

Our local airport is an International airport, but I'm not sure how that relates to W/L records and schedule strength of FCS football teams. Why do you try to turn a discussion about those topics into an uninformed attempt to put down where someone chooses to live? Pretty weak debate skills.

Int'l airport... montana.

xlolx *logging off* xlolx

[Bison56]

A small state? Not really. A densely populated state? I've never heard it referred to that way. Those are the opposite of the usual stereotypes for Montana. You may want to read a little about US geography.

Our local airport is an International airport, but I'm not sure how that relates to W/L records and schedule strength of FCS football teams. Why do you try to turn a discussion about those topics into an uninformed attempt to put down where someone chooses to live? Pretty weak debate skills.

What else is he going to talk about, SWAC football?xcoffeex
He should ask to get a refund on his education if he thinks Montana is small and densely populated.