BigApp
August 30th, 2007, 12:31 AM
GreatAppSt gives you the Countdown. Each message board has it's own traditions. BigApp's much less ballyhoo'd tradition is to showcase 5 games or so around the country each week where an upset might be in the making. Here's the rules:
--I typically do NOT pick Southern Conference teams, and almost never pick conference games. To date, I have never picked an Appalachian game.
--The purpose is to look at the big picture when it comes down to what matters in FCS football, the playoffs. The games I'm looking at are teams with their sights set on the field of 16, OR may have an affect on the playoffs.
--Typically, games between Top 25 teams I leave alone because, well everybody else is talking/watching/writing about these games. Look a further down the rankings, you'll see what I mean...Also, we're looking at games that everyone else thinks is a blowout...or may have a juicy storyline...
--Since there are so many, I have to choose one, so the rankings I use are from The Sports Network.
--Nothing I write is meant to taking personally or as smack, so please do not take it as such.
--Since I started doing this on the Mountaineer Message Board in 2002, I've selected 165 games. 56 of those became straight up upsets (34%-not too bad), but when factoring in near misses (games decided by 8 points or less) that's another 36, raising it to 56%. I'm proud of that.
Here we go for 2007:
1) #3 Massachusetts vs #40 Holy Cross--We're all aware of the Minutemen. Good size, big program, lots of tradition. But what do we know of Holy Cross? Here's some tidbits to chew on: HC was only 7-4 last season, but averaged 384 yards per game in total Offense, and are looking to serious players in the Patriot League. This is a good place to make a first impression. HC returns 7 starters from the O, and 6 from the D (3 of 4 starters in the secondary-including preseason All-American Casey Gough). HC has a quality returning QB in Dominic Randolph who threw 19 TDs against only 6 INT's last season.
2) #20 South Dakota State @ #45 Western Illinois--SDSU returns 18 starters. the Jackrabbits are also picked to finish 4th in a 5-team conference. But, the Leathernecks, they return 7 defensive starters, including Buchanan award candidate Jerome Bennett. Even though WIU only returns 3 starters on Offense, one is 1400+ yard All-American RB Herb Donaldson. Oh, and I'd be remiss if I didn't mention WIU has won 30 consecutive home regular season non-conference wins...
3) #23 Coastal Carolina @ #38 Delaware St--Coastal was hit hard by personnel losses. The Hornets, however, return 15 starters, including the MEAC preseason Player of the Year in senior Shaheer McBride. DSU also returns 4 other MEAC 1st team All-Conference selections (3 defense).
4) #28 San Diego @ Azusa Pacific (0-1 NAIA) --No one was harder on USD last year than myself. And the 40th edition of this game is a perfect example of why. You've got a Torero program that is desperate for playoff credibility, yet gets upset when they can't get it. Here's another reason why you haven't gotten it: YOU'RE AN FCS TEAM TRAVELING TO AN NAIA TEAM!! Yes, USD has Johnson back, we've read all the clippings. They also have a new coach. Azusa returns 12 starters and 55 lettermen (SD returns 14 and 46) and will already have one game under their belt (they were hammered @ NAIA #17 MidAmerica Nazarene in Kansas). AP leads this series overall 21-18. USD CANNOT lose this game (or even have a close score) and retain credibility on this level.
5) Carson-Newman (1-0) @ Chattanooga --CN is ranked #15 in Division 2, and hardcore football fans are quick to note how good Ken Sparks' teams have been for decades. With a game under their belt (a 52-21 blasting of Virginia State), they return 17 starters (only 3 of which are seniors). Mocfans have GOT to be aware of how dangerous this game is.
Bonus:
UNC-Pembroke @ Davidson--DC's leading returning rusher is Chad Barnes who tallied 209 total yards last season. UNC-P has 51 redshirts and 15 transfers (including 6-2 TE Justin Hinson, who transferred from Appalachian) who've had nothing else to do for 2 years or so but dream of this game, their first as a Brave football team. A start-up scholarship D2 against a non-scholarship FCS team.
--I typically do NOT pick Southern Conference teams, and almost never pick conference games. To date, I have never picked an Appalachian game.
--The purpose is to look at the big picture when it comes down to what matters in FCS football, the playoffs. The games I'm looking at are teams with their sights set on the field of 16, OR may have an affect on the playoffs.
--Typically, games between Top 25 teams I leave alone because, well everybody else is talking/watching/writing about these games. Look a further down the rankings, you'll see what I mean...Also, we're looking at games that everyone else thinks is a blowout...or may have a juicy storyline...
--Since there are so many, I have to choose one, so the rankings I use are from The Sports Network.
--Nothing I write is meant to taking personally or as smack, so please do not take it as such.
--Since I started doing this on the Mountaineer Message Board in 2002, I've selected 165 games. 56 of those became straight up upsets (34%-not too bad), but when factoring in near misses (games decided by 8 points or less) that's another 36, raising it to 56%. I'm proud of that.
Here we go for 2007:
1) #3 Massachusetts vs #40 Holy Cross--We're all aware of the Minutemen. Good size, big program, lots of tradition. But what do we know of Holy Cross? Here's some tidbits to chew on: HC was only 7-4 last season, but averaged 384 yards per game in total Offense, and are looking to serious players in the Patriot League. This is a good place to make a first impression. HC returns 7 starters from the O, and 6 from the D (3 of 4 starters in the secondary-including preseason All-American Casey Gough). HC has a quality returning QB in Dominic Randolph who threw 19 TDs against only 6 INT's last season.
2) #20 South Dakota State @ #45 Western Illinois--SDSU returns 18 starters. the Jackrabbits are also picked to finish 4th in a 5-team conference. But, the Leathernecks, they return 7 defensive starters, including Buchanan award candidate Jerome Bennett. Even though WIU only returns 3 starters on Offense, one is 1400+ yard All-American RB Herb Donaldson. Oh, and I'd be remiss if I didn't mention WIU has won 30 consecutive home regular season non-conference wins...
3) #23 Coastal Carolina @ #38 Delaware St--Coastal was hit hard by personnel losses. The Hornets, however, return 15 starters, including the MEAC preseason Player of the Year in senior Shaheer McBride. DSU also returns 4 other MEAC 1st team All-Conference selections (3 defense).
4) #28 San Diego @ Azusa Pacific (0-1 NAIA) --No one was harder on USD last year than myself. And the 40th edition of this game is a perfect example of why. You've got a Torero program that is desperate for playoff credibility, yet gets upset when they can't get it. Here's another reason why you haven't gotten it: YOU'RE AN FCS TEAM TRAVELING TO AN NAIA TEAM!! Yes, USD has Johnson back, we've read all the clippings. They also have a new coach. Azusa returns 12 starters and 55 lettermen (SD returns 14 and 46) and will already have one game under their belt (they were hammered @ NAIA #17 MidAmerica Nazarene in Kansas). AP leads this series overall 21-18. USD CANNOT lose this game (or even have a close score) and retain credibility on this level.
5) Carson-Newman (1-0) @ Chattanooga --CN is ranked #15 in Division 2, and hardcore football fans are quick to note how good Ken Sparks' teams have been for decades. With a game under their belt (a 52-21 blasting of Virginia State), they return 17 starters (only 3 of which are seniors). Mocfans have GOT to be aware of how dangerous this game is.
Bonus:
UNC-Pembroke @ Davidson--DC's leading returning rusher is Chad Barnes who tallied 209 total yards last season. UNC-P has 51 redshirts and 15 transfers (including 6-2 TE Justin Hinson, who transferred from Appalachian) who've had nothing else to do for 2 years or so but dream of this game, their first as a Brave football team. A start-up scholarship D2 against a non-scholarship FCS team.