STATS poll, March 8th

[kdinva]

http://www.fcs.football/cfb/polls.asp?div=fcs




Rankings as of 3/8/2021


Rank
School
Votes
Prev


1
James Madison (http://www.fcs.football/cfb/teamstats.asp?report=teamhome&team=0196) (3-0)
981 (29)
1


2
Weber State (http://www.fcs.football/cfb/teamstats.asp?report=teamhome&team=0119) (1-0)
928 (2)
2


3
North Dakota (http://www.fcs.football/cfb/teamstats.asp?report=teamhome&team=0308) (3-0)
919 (9)
4


4
UNI (http://www.fcs.football/cfb/teamstats.asp?report=teamhome&team=0123) (2-1)
863
3


5
North Dakota State (http://www.fcs.football/cfb/teamstats.asp?report=teamhome&team=0309) (3-1)
778
6


6
Villanova (http://www.fcs.football/cfb/teamstats.asp?report=teamhome&team=0199) (1-0)
777
5


7
Nicholls (http://www.fcs.football/cfb/teamstats.asp?report=teamhome&team=0181) (3-0)
754
7


8
South Dakota State (http://www.fcs.football/cfb/teamstats.asp?report=teamhome&team=0312) (2-1)
752
8


9
Kennesaw State (http://www.fcs.football/cfb/teamstats.asp?report=teamhome&team=2610) (1-0)
653
9


10
Southern Illinois (http://www.fcs.football/cfb/teamstats.asp?report=teamhome&team=0124) (3-1)
652
11


10
Jacksonville State (http://www.fcs.football/cfb/teamstats.asp?report=teamhome&team=0247) (5-1)
652
10


12
Sam Houston (http://www.fcs.football/cfb/teamstats.asp?report=teamhome&team=0184) (1-0)
557
12


13
Albany (http://www.fcs.football/cfb/teamstats.asp?report=teamhome&team=0546) (1-0)
538
13


14
Chattanooga (http://www.fcs.football/cfb/teamstats.asp?report=teamhome&team=0177) (2-1)
402
18


15
Furman (http://www.fcs.football/cfb/teamstats.asp?report=teamhome&team=0174) (2-1)
351
17


16
Eastern Washington (http://www.fcs.football/cfb/teamstats.asp?report=teamhome&team=0113) (1-1)
317
22


17
New Hampshire (http://www.fcs.football/cfb/teamstats.asp?report=teamhome&team=0205) (0-1)
272
14


18
Southeastern Louisiana (http://www.fcs.football/cfb/teamstats.asp?report=teamhome&team=2234) (1-1)
239
23


19
Delaware (http://www.fcs.football/cfb/teamstats.asp?report=teamhome&team=0195) (1-0)
233
25


20
Wofford (http://www.fcs.football/cfb/teamstats.asp?report=teamhome&team=0267) (1-1)
222
20


21
South Dakota (http://www.fcs.football/cfb/teamstats.asp?report=teamhome&team=0311) (1-1)
185
20


22
Illinois State (http://www.fcs.football/cfb/teamstats.asp?report=teamhome&team=0121) (0-2)
148
15


23
UC Davis (http://www.fcs.football/cfb/teamstats.asp?report=teamhome&team=0263) (1-0)
140
NR


24
Monmouth (http://www.fcs.football/cfb/teamstats.asp?report=teamhome&team=0216) (0-0)
119
23


25
UIW (http://www.fcs.football/cfb/teamstats.asp?report=teamhome&team=2539) (2-0)
115
NR


Others: VMI (http://www.fcs.football/cfb/teamstats.asp?report=teamhome&team=0178) (89) , Idaho (http://www.fcs.football/cfb/teamstats.asp?report=teamhome&team=0114) (81) , Southeast Missouri State (http://www.fcs.football/cfb/teamstats.asp?report=teamhome&team=0155) (77) , Jackson State (http://www.fcs.football/cfb/teamstats.asp?report=teamhome&team=0190) (55) , Richmond (http://www.fcs.football/cfb/teamstats.asp?report=teamhome&team=0198) (36) , Gardner-Webb (http://www.fcs.football/cfb/teamstats.asp?report=teamhome&team=0351) (32) , San Diego (http://www.fcs.football/cfb/teamstats.asp?report=teamhome&team=0169) (15) , ETSU (http://www.fcs.football/cfb/teamstats.asp?report=teamhome&team=0173) (12) , Austin Peay (http://www.fcs.football/cfb/teamstats.asp?report=teamhome&team=0150) (10) , Dixie State (http://www.fcs.football/cfb/teamstats.asp?report=teamhome&team=2344) (10) , Murray State (http://www.fcs.football/cfb/teamstats.asp?report=teamhome&team=0154) (9) , Tarleton State (http://www.fcs.football/cfb/teamstats.asp?report=teamhome&team=0262) (9) , Elon (http://www.fcs.football/cfb/teamstats.asp?report=teamhome&team=0350) (3)

[Schism55]

UNI 4!! spots ahead of SDSU?? Cmon man....

[Professor Chaos]

I never thought I'd ever (and I mean EVER) say this about the STATS poll but I think Jacksonville St might be underrated.

[kdinva]

Monmouth getting votes based on Nov. 2019......

[atthewbon]

I don't get how UNI is 4 and Furman is 15

[caribbeanhen]

Monmouth getting votes based on Nov. 2019......

Yup I think I’m guilty of the same they lost a lot of talent

[caribbeanhen]

UNI 4!! spots ahead of SDSU?? Cmon man....

And loses to Albany at home while Delaware beats Maine 37 nothing but still two spots ahead of Delaware

[FUBeAR]

http://www.fcs.football/cfb/polls.asp?div=fcs




Rankings as of 3/8/2021


Rank
School
Votes
Prev


20
Wofford (http://www.fcs.football/cfb/teamstats.asp?report=teamhome&team=0267) (1-1)
222
20



I thought the Teary-ers dropped their Football program. No?

[kdinva]

I thought the Teary-ers dropped their Football program. No?

That's gonna leave a mark.. xslapfightx

[coover]

Where is Cal Poly? They are undefeated and have not given up a point to their opponents!

[clenz]

UNI has a top 2 defense

Offense?

Well, not sure it's the offense of a top 5 and I'm not sure the defense offsets it enough to be top 5

[TheKingpin28]

I am just grateful there is no "Coaches" poll this year. Again, just another reason why the AGS poll should be the official one, (I know why it's not). The lack of effort from a good portion of these voters, STATS that is, is abysmal.

[skinny_uncle]

The Bison are ahead of the Salukis? Do these guys watch any games?

[TheKingpin28]

The Bison are ahead of the Salukis? Do these guys watch any games?

You don't remember how the game ended 14-38??? They just assumed NDSU was the home team in this score.

[jsualumnus]

I never thought I'd ever (and I mean EVER) say this about the STATS poll but I think Jacksonville St might be underrated.

I dunno.. Saturday’s game was sloppy. OVC might be pretty weak this year, as it is every year. Leave us at 10, don’t seed us, and maybe we’ll do well in the playoffs. Seed us and watch us burn out in the 1st round.

[POD Knows]

The Bison are ahead of the Salukis? Do these guys watch any games?Apparently not, they got Furman at 15, they lost to VMI. NDSU at 5 is a complete joke.

[Professor Chaos]

I dunno.. Saturday’s game was sloppy. OVC might be pretty weak this year, as it is every year. Leave us at 10, don’t seed us, and maybe we’ll do well in the playoffs. Seed us and watch us burn out in the 1st round.
I think a lot of games this spring are/will be sloppy. JSU put in some good work in the fall though which I think will help them even if the OVC as a whole disappoints this spring.

[Mocs123]

Polls are difficult sometimes. I didn't watch the NDSU game, but despite the solid win, I don't think SIU is a better football team than NDSU. Obviously they were on that particular Saturday, but not better overall.

[Professor Chaos]

Polls are difficult sometimes. I didn't watch the NDSU game, but despite the solid win, I don't think SIU is a better football team than NDSU. Obviously they were on that particular Saturday, but not better overall.
If that's the case it'll be proven out as the spring goes on and the polls can re-adjust accordingly. The problem with the STATS poll is so many voters are too rigid. Seems like too many of them have the mentality that teams can't move down unless they lose and can't move up unless teams in front of them lose. And when that does happen they seem to be hesitant to move any team too many spots up or down in one week which is amplifies the problem their rules about not moving teams down/up unless they or a team in front of them loses creates.

[Mocs123]

We'll that's true - teams that are not very good but ranked high in the first poll take way too long to drop out, and good teams that are not ranked at the beginning of the season find it very hard to move into the polls, particularly the top 10. I seem to remember a Wofford team in ~2010 that was ranked really high to start the season and stayed in the polls way too long as they weren't very good that year. VMI, the perennial doormat of the SoCon is currently 2-0 (with a win over Furman - who I think is pretty good) but they will have a hard time breaking into the polls even if they keep winning.

[HootyHoo]

Polls are difficult sometimes. I didn't watch the NDSU game, but despite the solid win, I don't think SIU is a better football team than NDSU. Obviously they were on that particular Saturday, but not better overall.

Then why play any games at all?

[TheKingpin28]

If that's the case it'll be proven out as the spring goes on and the polls can re-adjust accordingly. The problem with the STATS poll is so many voters are too rigid. Seems like too many of them have the mentality that teams can't move down unless they lose and can't move up unless teams in front of them lose. And when that does happen they seem to be hesitant to move any team too many spots up or down in one week which is amplifies the problem their rules about not moving teams down/up unless they or a team in front of them loses creates.

I know for some of the people, if you call them out for slot voting, you'll get a tirade or a straight up block. If you are going to put together a crap list, and refuse to defend it, then why even vote?

[skinny_uncle]

Polls are difficult sometimes. I didn't watch the NDSU game, but despite the solid win, I don't think SIU is a better football team than NDSU. Obviously they were on that particular Saturday, but not better overall.
The Salukis did not just win that game, they dominated in almost every phase of the game.

[POD Knows]

The Salukis did not just win that game, they dominated in almost every phase of the game.They absolutely did, it was not a fluke, it was an ass kicking. They also have UNI ahead of SDSU in this poll, garbage effort on STATS part.

[nodak651]

If that's the case it'll be proven out as the spring goes on and the polls can re-adjust accordingly. The problem with the STATS poll is so many voters are too rigid. Seems like too many of them have the mentality that teams can't move down unless they lose and can't move up unless teams in front of them lose. And when that does happen they seem to be hesitant to move any team too many spots up or down in one week which is amplifies the problem their rules about not moving teams down/up unless they or a team in front of them loses creates.

This exactly. Early in the seasons, people don't want to put to much stock into "just one game" and they somehow give more credence to pre season rankings that don't take ANY games into account. The one exception that has been accepted and should continue to be is NDSU, until they lose their second game this weekendxsmiley_wix. SIU should still be ahead of them given how that game turned out, and because so few games have been played, but it doesn't mean that SIU has to be in front of NDSU for the rest of the season either. Polls that give more stock to forward looking projections than games that have already occurred are typically garbage, IMO, because the FCS isn't followed nearly close enough for projections to be accurate - there are huge surprises and let downs every year. Look at Sac and EWU last year as an example, and look at UND's projected SOS last year vs the end of season SOS. Also, tell me UND wouldn't be ranked #1 right now if we hadn't started the season unranked (not complaining, just a good example).

[Mocs123]

Then why play any games at all?

So if in fall of 2021 NDSU is 10-0 going into the last game of the season and loses to South Dakota (not SDSU) who is 3-7 what do you do?

A.) Knock NDSU down an appropriate amount (subjective) say to #10. Do not rank SD.
B.) Remove NDSU from your poll altogether - if they lost to SD they are not one of the best 25 teams in the country (despite the 10-1 record).
C.) Drop NDSU to #25 and rank SD #24 because they beat NDSU so despite their 4-7 record they deserve a top 25 ranking.
D.) Keep NDSU at #1 because they've won 27 (seemingly) National Championships in a row.

Despite the fact that NDSU lost to SD in this scenario, I don't think anyone would advocate that SD is the better team (thought they might have been the better team on that Saturday). Perhaps the Bison were just looking ahead to their potential clash with the mighty Owls in the playoffs?

[nodak651]

So if in fall of 2021 NDSU is 10-0 going into the last game of the season and loses to South Dakota (not SDSU) who is 3-7 what do you do?

A.) Knock NDSU down an appropriate amount (subjective) say to #10. Do not rank SD.
B.) Remove NDSU from your poll altogether - if they lost to SD they are not one of the best 25 teams in the country (despite the 10-1 record).
C.) Drop NDSU to #25 and rank SD #24 because they beat NDSU so despite their 4-7 record they deserve a top 25 ranking.
D.) Keep NDSU at #1 because they've won 27 (seemingly) National Championships in a row.

Despite the fact that NDSU lost to SD in this scenario, I don't think anyone would advocate that SD is the better team (thought they might have been the better team on that Saturday). Perhaps the Bison were just looking ahead to their potential clash with the mighty Owls in the playoffs?

Not an apples to apples comparison. Obviously once more games have been played there is more data to work with and individual games mean less as a % of total body of work.

SIU deserves credit due, if NDSU is the better team at the end of the year the rankings will reflect that, unless voters rank teams based on their gut instinct rather than actual results.

[MVFCBeat]

The answer to this is not doing polls until midway through the season. When you do a preseason poll based off nothing but opinion, and then so much of that poll's results are based off that preseason poll for the rest of the year, it really messes with your outcomes. This season, I think, is exacerbating that since there are so few games and there was so much unknown because of winter roster turnover. It made the preseason poll particularly difficult to put together. It is revealing a problem that is always there though.

Why should being thought of as the best team in the preseason give you an advantage?

[Professor Chaos]

The answer to this is not doing polls until midway through the season. When you do a preseason poll based off nothing but opinion, and then so much of that poll's results are based off that preseason poll for the rest of the year, it really messes with your outcomes. This season, I think, is exacerbating that since there are so few games and there was so much unknown because of winter roster turnover. It made the preseason poll particularly difficult to put together. It is revealing a problem that is always there though.

Why should being thought of as the best team in the preseason give you an advantage?
It's an answer... I don't necessarily think it's the best answer. Whether you do the first poll before any games are played or wait until after half the season is played that first poll is bound to be a little rough. Having voted in the AGS Poll for 9 years now I find that my week 2 poll ballot is easier because of the work I did after week 1. Likewise with week 3 being easier because of week 2. If we did start holding off on doing an AGS Poll until midseason I'd still probably put together my own rankings after each week earlier in the season to make things easier on myself for when I do submit that first poll ballot (I update my personal rankings after each week of the playoffs even though we don't vote between the final regular season poll and the end of the playoffs).

I think the best answer is to learn to recognize your biases and be ready to correct them if they're proven wrong... a great way to do that is to put your personal rankings out there for the community to review and comment on. Use those comments to challenge and improve your thought process going forward. If you can do that you're perfectly capable of voting in the preseason and having a better set of rankings by the time week 7 rolls around than you would've had if you waited until week 7 to start. xtwocentsx

[MVFCBeat]

It's an answer... I don't necessarily think it's the best answer. Whether you do the first poll before any games are played or wait until after half the season is played that first poll is bound to be a little rough. Having voted in the AGS Poll for 9 years now I find that my week 2 poll ballot is easier because of the work I did after week 1. Likewise with week 3 being easier because of week 2. If we did start holding off on doing an AGS Poll until midseason I'd still probably put together my own rankings after each week earlier in the season to make things easier on myself for when I do submit that first poll ballot (I update my personal rankings after each week of the playoffs even though we don't vote between the final regular season poll and the end of the playoffs).

I think the best answer is to learn to recognize your biases and be ready to correct them if they're proven wrong... a great way to do that is to put your personal rankings out there for the community to review and comment on. Use those comments to challenge and improve your thought process going forward. If you can do that you're perfectly capable of voting in the preseason and having a better set of rankings by the time week 7 rolls around than you would've had if you waited until week 7 to start. xtwocentsx

I agree with all this, but I don't know if you are going to get that level of commitment from everyone. But I think the AGS poll is way better than the STATS poll because its done by fans who have done research and are into it. Its not just an obligation of a school employee or media member that has little interest beyond their home team. If you could get everyone to make the commitment you are making you'd be in good shape though.

[70MilesFromCanada]

Haven’t seen a mention of Sagarin rankings here. He is calculating them including spring FCS. Not sure if they work but here they are: SDSU-86, NDSU-88, UNI-91, UND-94, Weber-98, Montana-102, JMU-109 and SIU-110. 🤷

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I agree with all this, but I don't know if you are going to get that level of commitment from everyone. But I think the AGS poll is way better than the STATS poll because its done by fans who have done research and are into it. Its not just an obligation of a school employee or media member that has little interest beyond their home team. If you could get everyone to make the commitment you are making you'd be in good shape though.

As the guy that runs the AGS version I can tell you that the level commitment is very high on this poll. I would have to go look but in years past and I think this season the # of people that vote every week...and never miss is somewhere around 70-80%. Now the people that miss only 2 or 3 votes in a season probably puts us up over 80% on voters in total. Now those people also do varying things like post on the threads, discuss or ask why a poster would rank this team or that team etc. They also need to advocated for certain teams that look out of place when I vet their ballot. Nearly any poster I send an email to can act as a damn fine defense attorney when challenged on an apparent issue with not only a team but why they are in the order that they show up.

Professor pointed out many good reason but expounding on one of them is that I think the poll and the threads drives so much arguing/discussion each week that it really makes you look at some things you would never have had the chance too if the poll had not existed that week.

You made several good points in agreement with Prof as well but for so many years I have seen your original statement put out there and to be honest when I was less involved with it I fully agreed with that. But I can tell you that I was just flat wrong. You get a better product going over the outcomes and doing better next time and just as a reference would you rather judge UNI's talent as a team after only four games or would they be better after 11?

[nodak651]

Haven’t seen a mention of Sagarin rankings here. He is calculating them including spring FCS. Not sure if they work but here they are: SDSU-86, NDSU-88, UNI-91, UND-94, Weber-98, Montana-102, JMU-109 and SIU-110. 路

Assuming data from last year is still part of the equation, right? How many games back does he look at?

[UAalum72]

Assuming data from last year is still part of the equation, right? How many games back does he look at?
In normal years, previous season-ending data is used in diminishing amounts until all teams are “connected”, usually 4 or 5 games.

[MVFCBeat]

As the guy that runs the AGS version I can tell you that the level commitment is very high on this poll. I would have to go look but in years past and I think this season the # of people that vote every week...and never miss is somewhere around 70-80%. Now the people that miss only 2 or 3 votes in a season probably puts us up over 80% on voters in total. Now those people also do varying things like post on the threads, discuss or ask why a poster would rank this team or that team etc. They also need to advocated for certain teams that look out of place when I vet their ballot. Nearly any poster I send an email to can act as a damn fine defense attorney when challenged on an apparent issue with not only a team but why they are in the order that they show up.

Professor pointed out many good reason but expounding on one of them is that I think the poll and the threads drives so much arguing/discussion each week that it really makes you look at some things you would never have had the chance too if the poll had not existed that week.

You made several good points in agreement with Prof as well but for so many years I have seen your original statement put out there and to be honest when I was less involved with it I fully agreed with that. But I can tell you that I was just flat wrong. You get a better product going over the outcomes and doing better next time and just as a reference would you rather judge UNI's talent as a team after only four games or would they be better after 11?

I don't understand the question you are asking. Can you elaborate? I'd rather UNI be judged for the first time halfway through the season than they be judged for the first time before the season starts. Plugging teams in at #1 without any data to back it up gives them an advantage all year long. ISU and USD in the STATS poll is an example. Illinois State started at #7 and fell to 15 after losing at home to USD. USD was unranked and moved up to #20 after they won. SIU remained behind NDSU after trashing the Bison in game #2 because they started much lower. Results like that just make the poll seem laughable and worthless. If it were to start after, say, next week's games I think it would be more accurate than it will be as is because there would be no preconceived notions on where teams should be. That's why, at least IMO, there are no preseason FBS playoffs rankings.

I agree that if you take the time you'll get a more accurate result regardless. That is why the AGS poll is better, IMO.

In the end, do these polls impact playoff picks/seeding at all? I doubt it, and if not, it really doesn't matter anyway.

[nodak651]

To get better Stats Poll results, craig hailey should stop publicly posting his athalon power rankings.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I don't understand the question you are asking. Can you elaborate? I'd rather UNI be judged for the first time halfway through the season than they be judged for the first time before the season starts. Plugging teams in at #1 without any data to back it up gives them an advantage all year long. ISU and USD in the STATS poll is an example. Illinois State started at #7 and fell to 15 after losing at home to USD. USD was unranked and moved up to #20 after they won. SIU remained behind NDSU after trashing the Bison in game #2 because they started much lower. Results like that just make the poll seem laughable and worthless. If it were to start after, say, next week's games I think it would be more accurate than it will be as is because there would be no preconceived notions on where teams should be. That's why, at least IMO, there are no preseason FBS playoffs rankings.

I agree that if you take the time you'll get a more accurate result regardless. That is why the AGS poll is better, IMO.

In the end, do these polls impact playoff picks/seeding at all? I doubt it, and if not, it really doesn't matter anyway.

I am talking about a poster going through the motions of voting week after week and getting in "reps" being akin to a team getting in reps...you get better results (if paying attention) when you have the discussions, do the work etc.

I'm not saying it happens in all polls. Some voters can lay back and get lazy, I am sure. But that isn't happening in the AGS Poll that I can see.

As far as a team being #1 and having an advantage...if voters just move teams around based on some basic slot voting type of thing then maybe it can happen for a few weeks but no matter what the play of the field quickly shows where a team should be and even though in some polls they may take a minute or two to figure it out...they usually do by the end of the season. Delaying the vote, giving them zero feedback until later in the season sure would not seem to help that.

Polls really don't matter to selections. They just don't get used too much as the poll committee has far more information and resources than anyone voting in any poll has.

I do know that during the regular season a member of the selection crew does get the AGS Poll sent to him among others each week. So they look at things but you can't really say they use them with any certainty...any of the polls.

Nevertheless, less reps and starting later on poll voting would probably not help results. Having others look at the work and critique what is being done forces most people to try and do a better job. I know that to be true at least in the AGS Poll and I think it works that way at a bit slower rate on other polls as well.

[MVFCBeat]

Well the #4 team in the country, according to STATS, is out of the playoff hunt midway through the season lol.