FCS_pwns_FBS
July 21st, 2020, 01:50 PM
Something the data heads here might enjoy.
So I've been wanting to put together my own computer ranking system for both FCS and FBS for a while and now and just recently got good enough at programming to get individual FCS game data aggregated from the web in a way that it can be used.
One thing I want to try and to incorporate is how well teams do things beyond just moving the ball and stopping the team moving the ball. Basically, things getting turnovers from the other team and minimizing their own turnovers, minimizing penalties, and playing good special teams.
To try and measure this for each team, I use what's called Wins Above Expectation. Basically, you figure out the expected number of games a team could be expected to win based purely on yardage differentials (and yards per play differential) in each game versus how many games that team actually won.
Here's a graph showing the wins above expectation for each FCS and and their average yardage differential per game.
https://i.imgur.com/cf5VtRL.jpg
Now some of wins above expectations is luck. Some teams will be all right on turnovers and special teams and still be a game and a half below your expected wins. South Dakota State is one team I suspect might have a low WAE because of bad luck because they seem to be overall average with special teams and turnovers and penalties. But when you look at the teams with the worst wins above expectation you can usually look at stats and get an explanation.
Take the two teams with the worst WAE as an example.
Prairie View A&M: Most penalized team in the FCS, bad on net punting, field goal percentage not one of the better ones in FCS, and turnover margin isn't in the cellar but is in the lower half of the FCS.
Wagner: Bad turnover margin, bad punting, bad field goal unit.
On the other hand, looking at the team with the two best WAEs:
Weber State: #4 turnover margin in FCS, #5 in net punting, is top 20 in field goal percentage, #36 in fewest penalties.
Central Arkansas: Good punting, arguably one of the top field goal units in the FCS, decent on penalties and turnovers.
Shouldn't be all that surprising that in Weber's win over the Griz in the playoffs was one where the Griz had better yardage but just made more mistakes, and that the wildcats were able to stay in the game with a good San Diego State team that also out-gained them by a good bit.
So I've been wanting to put together my own computer ranking system for both FCS and FBS for a while and now and just recently got good enough at programming to get individual FCS game data aggregated from the web in a way that it can be used.
One thing I want to try and to incorporate is how well teams do things beyond just moving the ball and stopping the team moving the ball. Basically, things getting turnovers from the other team and minimizing their own turnovers, minimizing penalties, and playing good special teams.
To try and measure this for each team, I use what's called Wins Above Expectation. Basically, you figure out the expected number of games a team could be expected to win based purely on yardage differentials (and yards per play differential) in each game versus how many games that team actually won.
Here's a graph showing the wins above expectation for each FCS and and their average yardage differential per game.
https://i.imgur.com/cf5VtRL.jpg
Now some of wins above expectations is luck. Some teams will be all right on turnovers and special teams and still be a game and a half below your expected wins. South Dakota State is one team I suspect might have a low WAE because of bad luck because they seem to be overall average with special teams and turnovers and penalties. But when you look at the teams with the worst wins above expectation you can usually look at stats and get an explanation.
Take the two teams with the worst WAE as an example.
Prairie View A&M: Most penalized team in the FCS, bad on net punting, field goal percentage not one of the better ones in FCS, and turnover margin isn't in the cellar but is in the lower half of the FCS.
Wagner: Bad turnover margin, bad punting, bad field goal unit.
On the other hand, looking at the team with the two best WAEs:
Weber State: #4 turnover margin in FCS, #5 in net punting, is top 20 in field goal percentage, #36 in fewest penalties.
Central Arkansas: Good punting, arguably one of the top field goal units in the FCS, decent on penalties and turnovers.
Shouldn't be all that surprising that in Weber's win over the Griz in the playoffs was one where the Griz had better yardage but just made more mistakes, and that the wildcats were able to stay in the game with a good San Diego State team that also out-gained them by a good bit.