AGS Top 25 - How They Fared Week 10 2019

[superman7515]

Other than links for a few late games, everything is up to date. All of the scores are in though, so I'll update the rest tomorrow. As always, if you see any mistakes, let me know.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18XJt_Tca_d7z38mikEzY4emQl1lFLrh4PoQ-4GGcRc8/edit?usp=sharing

[BEAR]

Looks great! Thanks again!

[Professor Chaos]

Bit of advice: don't even look at where you had teams like Kennesaw St and Stony Brook last week when you decide where they belong (or don't belong) this week. Just look at who they've played and who they have (and haven't) beat.

On a semi-related note... can anyone explain to me what the hell is going on in the CAA after JMU???

[uofmman1122]

#5 loses to #4, but beat #6, who also just won. I could see a case to move Weber up to as high as #2, but what do you do with Sac and Montana?

I will say, if Thomson is out for any considerable length of time, I don't think Sac is the #5 team anymore. That said, they were getting taken to the woodshed well before he went out against Weber tonight.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

#5 loses to #4, but beat #6, who also just won. I could see a case to move Weber up to as high as #2, but what do you do with Sac and Montana?

I will say, if Thomson is out for any considerable length of time, I don't think Sac is the #5 team anymore. That said, they were getting taken to the woodshed well before he went out against Weber tonight.

For me it is pretty clear still in the top 8 or so. Sac still above us...but if KT out then next week we'll see and then they drop a bit. UNI had a better win than MT so UNI steps over two teams in my book. All those teams are pretty interchangeable right now though. Weber steps over one team at least I think but that is a tough sell in my head because I keep thinking SDSU might just be the best team in the nation, as might Weber, JMU, and obviously NDSU be.

I just wanted to step in and really clear that up for you uofmman1122. xlolx

[MTfan4life]

Bit of advice: don't even look at where you had teams like Kennesaw St and Stony Brook last week when you decide where they belong (or don't belong) this week. Just look at who they've played and who they have (and haven't) beat.

On a semi-related note... can anyone explain to me what the hell is going on in the CAA after JMU???

Parity. Stony Brook is just really bad at getting over the big game hangover. Villanova is doing their best 2018 Montana impression by seeing how many leads they can blow. New Hampshire is trying to see how little of offense they can muster while still winning. Towson can't beat a team that's good on offense. Richmond seemingly fielded an entirely new roster after September ended. (If they had recovered a Yale onside kick attempt, they'd be on a 5 game winning streak. They had been up 27-14 with 1:30 to play. They're still pretty much dead in the water with road games at JMU and Nova)

[jmu007]

Bit of advice: don't even look at where you had teams like Kennesaw St and Stony Brook last week when you decide where they belong (or don't belong) this week. Just look at who they've played and who they have (and haven't) beat.

On a semi-related note... can anyone explain to me what the hell is going on in the CAA after JMU???

CAA is in a rebuilding year in my opinion. So much turnover from top to bottom between coaching changes and new faces at key positions. I'm amazed JMU has handled it as well as they have to be honest.

In terms of the playoffs it really is a weird scenario. If you go by records and normal metrics, it looks like the CAA could be as low as 2 teams, but at the same time if I was putting money on just about any of the top 6 teams vs likely playoff teams from the rest of the field outside of NDSU, I wouldn't hesitate to take a most of those CAA teams on any given Saturday.

[Professor Chaos]

For me it is pretty clear still in the top 8 or so. Sac still above us...but if KT out then next week we'll see and then they drop a bit. UNI had a better win than MT so UNI steps over two teams in my book. All those teams are pretty interchangeable right now though. Weber steps over one team at least I think but that is a tough sell in my head because I keep thinking SDSU might just be the best team in the nation, as might Weber, JMU, and obviously NDSU be.

I just wanted to step in and really clear that up for you uofmman1122. xlolx
Yep, IMO the top 8 nationally have separated themselves from the rest of the pack and the top 3 Big Sky teams are all in that group.

Can't really ding Sac St for losing Thomsen yet since we don't know how long he'll be out.

[RootinFerDukes]

Can we please stop ranking KSU? There’s literally no argument to rank them.

[Daytripper]

Bit of advice: don't even look at where you had teams like Kennesaw St and Stony Brook last week when you decide where they belong (or don't belong) this week. Just look at who they've played and who they have (and haven't) beat.

On a semi-related note... can anyone explain to me what the hell is going on in the CAA after JMU???

The same thing that is going on in the Southland after Central Arkanasas..

[HootyHoo]

Bit of advice: don't even look at where you had teams like Kennesaw St and Stony Brook last week when you decide where they belong (or don't belong) this week. Just look at who they've played and who they have (and haven't) beat.

On a semi-related note... can anyone explain to me what the hell is going on in the CAA after JMU???

yeah yeah yeah. Keep piling it on Professor. You know, for a guy who claims he doesn't care about Kennesaw. You sure have talked a lot of smack in the last 24 hours. Enjoy it while you can, the Owls will be back.

[Professor Chaos]

yeah yeah yeah. Keep piling it on Professor. You know, for a guy who claims he doesn't care about Kennesaw. You sure have talked a lot of smack in the last 24 hours. Enjoy it while you can, the Owls will be back.
How is that talking smack? Just reminding people that having some rule about only moving teams a certain amount of spots down (or up) in one week isn't a good way to vote.

As for my other comments on other threads you should be ready to take it after the **** you dished out.

I've never claimed to not care about Kennesaw either. Maybe you're confusing that with my sentiments on Ivy League teams.

[BEAR]

The same thing that is going on in the Southland after Central Arkanasas..

UCA still has SLU and UIW to play. But I will say at least we stop putting all our eggs in one WR's basket and are now actually using ALL our talent. What a difference it made against Lamar. Fans have been waiting for two years for a game like that! Solid play on both sides of the ball.

[van]

no telling how the next 3 weeks play out, but there sure are a lot of teams with 4 or more losses already, committee is gonna earn their pay picking 24, maybe draw straws for the last 4

[JacksFan40]

yeah yeah yeah. Keep piling it on Professor. You know, for a guy who claims he doesn't care about Kennesaw. You sure have talked a lot of smack in the last 24 hours. Enjoy it while you can, the Owls will be back.
Back to what? Back to getting embarrassed by Monmouth? You’re schedule is a joke. 2 NAIA wins? Really? Your best win is honestly Missouri State at this point. You could’ve had an FBS scalp but you lost to a terrible Kent State team.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Back to what? Back to getting embarrassed by Monmouth? You’re schedule is a joke. 2 NAIA wins? Really? Your best win is honestly Missouri State at this point. You could’ve had an FBS scalp but you lost to a terrible Kent State team.


If both of those teams make it in, they will get curb stomped. Neither deserve a top 8 seed. I actually hope one of them gets the 8th seed so they can come to Fargo and get pummeled....although they might not make it past the 1st round....xnodx

[smilo]

Kennesaw was around #41 for me. They can't possibly be remotely close to a bubble team

[JacksFan40]

If both of those teams make it in, they will get curb stomped. Neither deserve a top 8 seed. I actually hope one of them gets the 8th seed so they can come to Fargo and get pummeled....although they might not make it past the 1st round....xnodx
I’d say San Diego could curb stomp either one honestly. The Big South is atrocious.

[Reign of Terrier]

Thoughts on top 25:

1) Kennesaw should drop big.
2) this is an attrition battle, IMO if you're in one of the top 6 conferences and have 3 or less losses, you deserve ranking at this point
3) the CAA is a dumpster fire and doesn't deserve more than 3 bids, maybe 4 bids IMO
4) for the love of God don't drop Wofford for getting boat raced by clemson

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[TheKingpin28]

yeah yeah yeah. Keep piling it on Professor. You know, for a guy who claims he doesn't care about Kennesaw. You sure have talked a lot of smack in the last 24 hours. Enjoy it while you can, the Owls will be back.

Were you looking at a mirror when you typed this.

[Daytripper]

UCA still has SLU and UIW to play. But I will say at least we stop putting all our eggs in one WR's basket and are now actually using ALL our talent. What a difference it made against Lamar. Fans have been waiting for two years for a game like that! Solid play on both sides of the ball.

Please win both of those games!! That will help us immensely if we win out.

[caribbeanhen]

Thoughts on top 25:

1) Kennesaw should drop big.
2) this is an attrition battle, IMO if you're in one of the top 6 conferences and have 3 or less losses, you deserve ranking at this point
3) the CAA is a dumpster fire and doesn't deserve more than 3 bids, maybe 4 bids IMO
4) for the love of God don't drop Wofford for getting boat raced by clemson

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

3 to 4? after JMU who?

[BEAR]

Please win both of those games!! That will help us immensely if we win out.

Believe me as fans winning out is all we want. xprayx

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

3 to 4? after JMU who?

Need field fillers. Politics and reputation will assure the CAA gets 4 bids.

[aceinthehole]

For me it is pretty clear still in the top 8 or so. Sac still above us...but if KT out then next week we'll see and then they drop a bit. UNI had a better win than MT so UNI steps over two teams in my book. All those teams are pretty interchangeable right now though. Weber steps over one team at least I think but that is a tough sell in my head because I keep thinking SDSU might just be the best team in the nation, as might Weber, JMU, and obviously NDSU be.

I just wanted to step in and really clear that up for you uofmman1122. xlolx

After the Top-8, it gets messy ...

[Reign of Terrier]

3 to 4? after JMU who?Nova and New Hampshire and that's it IMO.

You can convince me that one of Stony Brook or Towson, but if they shouldn't get priority over many bubble teams

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[Redbird 4th & short]

In a 12 game season such as this one in particular ... there are going to be many 5 loss teams legitimately on the bubble, many of which will and should get a bid. I just hope the committee takes a good hard look at a legitimate SOS (like Massey Composite) to figure out who has more quality wins and quality losses among all the 7-5 teams on the bubble. They failed last year many of the 6-4 teams .. ISUb and Furman had strongest resumes of the 6-4 teams and both were left out ... three others at 6-4 were given bids, plus a weak 6-3 ETSU also got a bid. Issue last year was hurricane weekend canceled several game and several teams had non D-I games.

Given how things stand today with 3 games left in season, we could easily see 5 teams with 7-5 records getting playoff bids.

[caribbeanhen]

Need field fillers. Politics and reputation will assure the CAA gets 4 bids.


yes, Twinkies and cupcakes :) provide us with needed fillers

[mainejeff]

Parity. Stony Brook is just really bad at getting over the big game hangover. Villanova is doing their best 2018 Montana impression by seeing how many leads they can blow. New Hampshire is trying to see how little of offense they can muster while still winning. Towson can't beat a team that's good on offense. Richmond seemingly fielded an entirely new roster after September ended. (If they had recovered a Yale onside kick attempt, they'd be on a 5 game winning streak. They had been up 27-14 with 1:30 to play. They're still pretty much dead in the water with road games at JMU and Nova)

And Maine got a new QB and got over some key injuries.

[Reign of Terrier]

In a 12 game season such as this one in particular ... there are going to be many 5 loss teams legitimately on the bubble, many of which will and should get a bid. I just hope the committee takes a good hard look at a legitimate SOS (like Massey Composite) to figure out who has more quality wins and quality losses among all the 7-5 teams on the bubble. They failed last year many of the 6-4 teams .. ISUb and Furman had strongest resumes of the 6-4 teams and both were left out ... three others at 6-4 were given bids, plus a weak 6-3 ETSU also got a bid. Issue last year was hurricane weekend canceled several game and several teams had non D-I games.

Given how things stand today with 3 games left in season, we could easily see 5 teams with 7-5 records getting playoff bids.ETSU had 7 D1 wins.

The real headscratcher was the Southland getting two in with only 6 D1 wins.

I know we give Furman people a hard time, but last year Furman had a better win than either Lamar or Incarnate Word, on the top of my head.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[Redbird 4th & short]

ETSU had 7 D1 wins.

The real headscratcher was the Southland getting two in with only 6 D1 wins.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

So even ETSU at 7-3 was a real head scratcher .. their best win was over Furman by 2 and Furman didn't make playoff; they only played 1 playoff team and lost by 13; and had 3 or 4 very weak wins padding that 7 win total. Ironically, I though Furman had a better 6-4 resume than 7-3 ETSU that beat them ... just very little in way of quality wins for ETSU last year.

If you put ETSU in MVFC last year, I think they are a 4-6 team at best.



Date












Opponent


Result
PF
PA




Sat 10-20
at
Wofford (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=9126&s=300937)
19(9-4)
L (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=897156954)
17
30



Sat 09-22

Furman (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2800&s=300937)
22(6-4)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=897156483)
29
27



Sat 11-17

Samford (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=6987&s=300937)
25(6-5)
L (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=897157389)
27
38



Sat 11-24
at
Jacksonville St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=3606&s=300937)playoff
33(9-4)
L (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=912985103)
27
34



Sat 10-13
at
Citadel (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=1545&s=300937)
50(5-6)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=897156797)
26
23



Sat 09-29

Chattanooga (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7809&s=300937)
52(6-5)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=897156586)
17
14



Sat 11-03
at
Mercer (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=4649&s=300937)
56(5-6)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=897157156)
21
18



Sat 10-27

W Carolina (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8742&s=300937)
80(3-8)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=897157026)OT
45
43



Fri 09-14
at
VMI (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8450&s=300937)
103(1-10)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=897156406)
27
24



Sat 10-06

Gardner Webb (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2825&s=300937)
107(3-8)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=897156699)
45
0



Sat 09-08
at
Tennessee (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7801&s=300937)
(5-7)
L (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=881921867)
3
59



Sat 09-01

Mars Hill (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=4430&s=300937)
(4-6)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=898056325)
28
7

[mainejeff]

3 to 4? after JMU who?

Take a look at the remaining schedules and project.

UNH (4-1, 5-3) - at JMU, at Albany, Maine......projects to 6-4 heading into Maine game while Maine (2-3, 4-5) - at Elon, URI, at UNH.....projects to 6-5 heading into UNH game. Winner goes to playoffs.

Albany (3-2, 5-4) - at Delaware, UNH, at Stony Brook projects to 6-6. No playoff bid.

Villanova (3-3, 6-3) - Richmond, LIU, Delaware.....projects to 9-3. Playoff bid.

Stony Brook (2-3, 5-4) - Towson, at Delaware, Albany....projects to 7-5. Bubble.

Towson (2-3, 5-4) - at Stony Brook, at W&M, Elon....projects to 7-5. Bubble.

Delaware (2-3, 4-5) - Albany, Stony Brook, at Villanova....projects to 5-7. No playoff bid.

My prediction: JMU, Villanova, Towson, Maine/UNH winner.

[superman7515]

Everything is updated.

[Reign of Terrier]

So even ETSU at 7-3 was a real head scratcher .. their best win was over Furman by 2 and Furman didn't make playoff; they only played 1 playoff team and lost by 13; and had 3 or 4 very weak wins padding that 7 win total. Ironically, I though Furman had a better 6-4 resume than 7-3 ETSU that beat them ... just very little in way of quality wins for ETSU last year.

If you put ETSU in MVFC last year, I think they are a 4-6 team at best.



Date












Opponent


Result
PF
PA




Sat 10-20
at
Wofford (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=9126&s=300937)
19(9-4)
L (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=897156954)
17
30



Sat 09-22

Furman (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2800&s=300937)
22(6-4)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=897156483)
29
27



Sat 11-17

Samford (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=6987&s=300937)
25(6-5)
L (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=897157389)
27
38



Sat 11-24
at
Jacksonville St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=3606&s=300937)playoff
33(9-4)
L (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=912985103)
27
34



Sat 10-13
at
Citadel (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=1545&s=300937)
50(5-6)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=897156797)
26
23



Sat 09-29

Chattanooga (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7809&s=300937)
52(6-5)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=897156586)
17
14



Sat 11-03
at
Mercer (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=4649&s=300937)
56(5-6)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=897157156)
21
18



Sat 10-27

W Carolina (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8742&s=300937)
80(3-8)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=897157026)OT
45
43



Fri 09-14
at
VMI (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8450&s=300937)
103(1-10)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=897156406)
27
24



Sat 10-06

Gardner Webb (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2825&s=300937)
107(3-8)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=897156699)
45
0



Sat 09-08
at
Tennessee (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7801&s=300937)
(5-7)
L (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=881921867)
3
59



Sat 09-01

Mars Hill (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=4430&s=300937)
(4-6)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=898056325)
28
7






It's only a "headscratcher" because you obsess over the metric of "quality wins" in such a way that is obviously self-serving that it blinds you to how the committee works. In other words: you like quality wins defined by Massey because Massey will always say your team, so long as it can win 6 or 7, has more quality wins than 90% of the bubble teams by virtue of the patch on the front of their jersey.

Meanwhile, it's pretty obvious why the committee put ETSU in: They had 7 Division One wins and they were tied for their conference championship in a conference whose playoff participants had at least one playoff game about 2/3 of the time (14 of 21 times) since 2010 (3 of those were Samford and one of those was the Citadel being beaten by Wofford). And since App/GSU left? 8 or 12, with 3 of those one and dones being Samford and the other that Citadel team.

It's pretty obvious why they'd get in. Extremely obvious even. That ETSU team went 6-2 in the Socon last year, and they're a better team this year in my opinion (better run game, better defense), and they're sitting at 0-6. Football is a game of chance and opportunity. There are no platonic teams sitting out in some ether who are abstractly good or bad, only to be realized every saturday. There's just the teams that have to show up every Saturday. People who are obsessed with Massey Ratings don't understand that Massey Ratings don't quantify or value that, but the playoff committee does, as do normal people.

The problem with abstracting from computer rankings is that, a team that close to the margin will even themselves out (see their record this year). Because we live in the real world and reward people for their actual accomplishments, we rightfully reward the conference champion who wins games barely than the mid-tier team who loses games barely.

[Son of Eli]

How about ranking Yale in the top 25 this week? They are 6-1 with a win on the road against Richmond which is now 4-1 in the CAA and in 2nd place.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Yep, IMO the top 8 nationally have separated themselves from the rest of the pack and the top 3 Big Sky teams are all in that group.

Can't really ding Sac St for losing Thomsen yet since we don't know how long he'll be out.

That is my thinking on it too and why I said need to wait one week to pass that judgment with how good they will be going forward.

[caribbeanhen]

How about ranking Yale in the top 25 this week? They are 6-1 with a win on the road against Richmond which is now 4-1 in the CAA and in 2nd place.

done deal

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Can we please stop ranking KSU? There’s literally no argument to rank them.

Yeah at this point I am on board that it is a tough sell as to why tjeu wpi;d be ranked anywhere in the T20 at best with the resume they have but there are still people ranking them and in fact leaving Monmouth out and that is just a damn travesty if you are a voter and doing that in my opinion. Some voters did them have ranked very high last week...like top 3 or 4 and that is just really unbelievable if you are looking at things but until this week it was hard to question it since they had a good record against bad teams but as I said now it just doesn't seem arguable.

If you are a voter then you need to look at a couple of things like the teams they have played, the strength of those teams, and not just a record here. If you don't you are being a bit lazy I think.

If you have KSU you damn sure ought to have Monmouth on your ballot is the main takeaway here for me.

[Schism55]

Take a look at the remaining schedules and project.

UNH (4-1, 5-3) - at JMU, at Albany, Maine......projects to 6-4 heading into Maine game while Maine (2-3, 4-5) - at Elon, URI, at UNH.....projects to 6-5 heading into UNH game. Winner goes to playoffs.

Albany (3-2, 5-4) - at Delaware, UNH, at Stony Brook projects to 6-6. No playoff bid.

Villanova (3-3, 6-3) - Richmond, LIU, Delaware.....projects to 9-3. Playoff bid.

Stony Brook (2-3, 5-4) - Towson, at Delaware, Albany....projects to 7-5. Bubble.

Towson (2-3, 5-4) - at Stony Brook, at W&M, Elon....projects to 7-5. Bubble.

Delaware (2-3, 4-5) - Albany, Stony Brook, at Villanova....projects to 5-7. No playoff bid.

My prediction: JMU, Villanova, Towson, Maine/UNH winner.
Umm have you seen Nova the last 3 weeks?!? That team is in absolute freefall, zero confidence they get that turned around.

[KPSUL]

You can't make a conclusion that the overall quality of a conference is down based on the fact that almost every intraconference game is very competitive. A more logical conclusion is that the overall quality of the conference teams is higher - but even that is stretching the available data a bit. What you can say for certain is that there are no clearly inferior teams in the conference. To me, that's a positive trend and it makes for a much more interesting season. I seems to be happening throughout most of FCS football this season to include the CAA, SLC, OVC and at least half of the Big Sky. It might also be true that we have greater parity between conferences, with a few notable exceptions, although that's harder to conclude since there are so few interconference matchups and a large number of those games are scheduled as intentional mismatches. With more parity and better competition in the sub-division it is clearly more difficult week to week to select a top-25, but to me, that's a fair price to pay for more close and hard fought football games to watch throughout the season.

[nevadagriz]

How many times has the #5 team lost this year?? is it 3?
Is the #5 ranking jinxed?

[Professor Chaos]

How many times has the #5 team lost this year?? is it 3?
Is the #5 ranking jinxed?
For the AGS poll 7 times now.

1) UC Davis lost to Cal in week 1
2) Maine lost to Towson in week 3
3) Towson lost to Nova in week 4
4) UNI lost to Weber St in week 5
5) Nova lost to JMU in week 7
6) Montana lost to Sac St in week 8
7) Sac St lost to Weber St in week 10

So #5 ranked teams (from the AGS poll) are 3-7 now on the year. That ain't good.

[MSUBobcat]

For the AGS poll 7 times now.

1) UC Davis lost to Cal in week 1
2) Maine lost to Towson in week 3
3) Towson lost to Nova in week 4
4) UNI lost to Weber St in week 5
5) Nova lost to JMU in week 7
6) Montana lost to Sac St in week 8
7) Sac St lost to Weber St in week 10

So #5 ranked teams (from the AGS poll) are 3-7 now on the year. That ain't good.

Weber should play more #5's. 2-0 now.

[I Bleed Purple]

Weber should play more #5's. 2-0 now.
A chance with Montana

[uofmman1122]

A chance with Montana
I doubt we'll be #5. Sac should still be ahead of us, and UNI and possibly even UCA might jump us, as well.

[cx500d]

I doubt we'll be #5. Sac should still be ahead of us, and UNI and possibly even UCA might jump us, as well.
Yeah, it’s hard to move the griz above ballSac given they beat you pretty handily a couple weeks ago.

[RootinFerDukes]

3 to 4? after JMU who?

The teams that finish in the top 4 in the CAA standings? I know. Crazy concept.

[Lorne_Malvo]

Yeah, it’s hard to move the griz above ballSac given they beat you pretty handily a couple weeks ago.

Sac beat Griz
Weber beat Sac
If Griz beat Weber:

Griz > Weber > Sac

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Sac beat Griz
Weber beat Sac
If Griz beat Weber:

Griz > Weber > Sac

If the Griz beat Weber it means our Oline has come a long way in a few short weeks, which it appears that way but can't tell unless we are playing a team like Weber but if that happens then what you have there might be a possibility at that point in the season. Our Oline really does appear to be getting better each week.

[caribbeanhen]

The teams that finish in the top 4 in the CAA standings? I know. Crazy concept.

name those teams, crazy I know

[Reign of Terrier]

The teams that finish in the top 4 in the CAA standings? I know. Crazy concept.

I will almost guarantee you that the fourth place team in the CAA will be indistinguishable from most of the other bubble teams. The CAA got 6 in last year and shat the bed. They have done nothing to differentiate themselves or demonstrate that they wouldn't **** the bed again. I say give it to JMU, Nova, and New Hampshire and that's it.

[cx500d]

I will almost guarantee you that the fourth place team in the CAA will be indistinguishable from most of the other bubble teams. The CAA got 6 in last year and shat the bed. They have done nothing to differentiate themselves or demonstrate that they wouldn't **** the bed again. I say give it to JMU, Nova, and New Hampshire and that's it.

Well New Hampshire has an autobid, so there should be another such as Richmond

[CommishBigSmooth]

name those teams, crazy I know

And you could say that in almost every league with parity, unbalanced schedules in larger conferences (Big Sky/CAA in particular), etc. This year is as much of a cluster than I can ever remember.

[uofmman1122]

Sac beat Griz
Weber beat Sac
If Griz beat Weber:

Griz > Weber > Sac
I see no lies here, it's science. xreadx

[I Bleed Purple]

Weber would have been the only team to have their win on the road...

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Weber would have been the only team to have their win on the road...

True, and road wins mean a lot to me in what a team is but not sure if it would make much difference in seeding if that is what we are talking about.

[Redbird 4th & short]

It's only a "headscratcher" because you obsess over the metric of "quality wins" in such a way that is obviously self-serving that it blinds you to how the committee works. In other words: you like quality wins defined by Massey because Massey will always say your team, so long as it can win 6 or 7, has more quality wins than 90% of the bubble teams by virtue of the patch on the front of their jersey.

Meanwhile, it's pretty obvious why the committee put ETSU in: They had 7 Division One wins and they were tied for their conference championship in a conference whose playoff participants had at least one playoff game about 2/3 of the time (14 of 21 times) since 2010 (3 of those were Samford and one of those was the Citadel being beaten by Wofford). And since App/GSU left? 8 or 12, with 3 of those one and dones being Samford and the other that Citadel team.

It's pretty obvious why they'd get in. Extremely obvious even. That ETSU team went 6-2 in the Socon last year, and they're a better team this year in my opinion (better run game, better defense), and they're sitting at 0-6. Football is a game of chance and opportunity. There are no platonic teams sitting out in some ether who are abstractly good or bad, only to be realized every saturday. There's just the teams that have to show up every Saturday. People who are obsessed with Massey Ratings don't understand that Massey Ratings don't quantify or value that, but the playoff committee does, as do normal people.

The problem with abstracting from computer rankings is that, a team that close to the margin will even themselves out (see their record this year). Because we live in the real world and reward people for their actual accomplishments, we rightfully reward the conference champion who wins games barely than the mid-tier team who loses games barely.

http://giphygifs.s3.amazonaws.com/media/Fjr6v88OPk7U4/giphy.gif
(https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjA59-LpM_lAhXug-AKHWiFAMoQjRx6BAgBEAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fgiphy.com%2Fgifs%2Feye-roll-bitch-please-Fjr6v88OPk7U4&psig=AOvVaw1ixOh0M3whlFV6YXjrj7rS&ust=1572913106690017)

[Bisonoline]

http://giphygifs.s3.amazonaws.com/media/Fjr6v88OPk7U4/giphy.gif
(https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjA59-LpM_lAhXug-AKHWiFAMoQjRx6BAgBEAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fgiphy.com%2Fgifs%2Feye-roll-bitch-please-Fjr6v88OPk7U4&psig=AOvVaw1ixOh0M3whlFV6YXjrj7rS&ust=1572913106690017)

xthumbsupx

[MacThor]

Take a look at the remaining schedules and project.

UNH (4-1, 5-3) - at JMU, at Albany, Maine......projects to 6-4 heading into Maine game while Maine (2-3, 4-5) - at Elon, URI, at UNH.....projects to 6-5 heading into UNH game. Winner goes to playoffs.

Albany (3-2, 5-4) - at Delaware, UNH, at Stony Brook projects to 6-6. No playoff bid.

Villanova (3-3, 6-3) - Richmond, LIU, Delaware.....projects to 9-3. Playoff bid.

Stony Brook (2-3, 5-4) - Towson, at Delaware, Albany....projects to 7-5. Bubble.

Towson (2-3, 5-4) - at Stony Brook, at W&M, Elon....projects to 7-5. Bubble.

Delaware (2-3, 4-5) - Albany, Stony Brook, at Villanova....projects to 5-7. No playoff bid.

My prediction: JMU, Villanova, Towson, Maine/UNH winner.

If the CAA has proved one thing this year, it's that projections are worthless in conference games.

Richmond is 4-1, 5-4. They are tied with UNH for 2nd and in better shape than a few of the teams you listed (with head-to-head wins against 4 of them).
The Fordham loss is inexcusable, as is the Yale collapse, frankly. But they look like an entirely different team. I was at the Yale game and after 3 quarters remember thinking this is the best they've looked in the past 3 seasons (even with Lauletta in '07). They looked even better against Stony Brook.
They can beat 'Nova, and should be favored against W&M.

The only teams in the CAA that control their own destiny are JMU, UNH, and UR.

[Redbird 4th & short]

xthumbsupx

there were so many gif's to choose from, but she was hottest on page 1

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Less than 15 minutes left to vote if you have not then get on it.

[Grizalltheway]

there were so many gif's to choose from, but she was hottest on page 1
If only she had been able to lay off the H.