WEEK 9 FCS PLAYOFF BRACKETOLOGY

[MUHAWKS]

Well this is all just for fun anyway, but this is laughable. I am a Monmouth guy and hence am a fan of the NEC and now Big South and in general the "mid major" FCS programs, but this guy is smoking crack!!

He has TWO Big South teams in AND TWO NEC teams!! Not to mention he has Albany in and NOT Stony Brook. Hey, I know it is just predictions and for fun but wow..

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fcs-football/bracketology

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

IMO, there's really only 2-3 teams that have a legit chance at a title. One could argue that it's really only one. With a 24 team playoff you simply need teams to fill out the bracket so who those field fillers are really doesn't matter.

[Redbird 4th & short]

So 6-2 Monmouth beats 1-7 Lafeyette by 3 and 1-7 Wagner by 2 .. their SOS ranks #75 and their avg FCS margin is a whopping 11 points per game ... seriously ??? They play at 7-1 KSU next week, KSU schedule ranks #110 per Massey, but at least their avg margin is 27 points per game.

They need a new computer .. Massey Composite as of right now (just 15 polls up as of sunday morning) is 38th.

[MUHAWKS]

IMO, there's really only 2-3 teams that have a legit chance at a title. One could argue that it's really only one. With a 24 team playoff you simply need teams to fill out the bracket so who those field fillers are really doesn't matter.


Hmmmm.. while I agree that realistically there are only a couple teams that can win the whole thing, I am not sure the rest of the field does not matter. For schools like Ours it is a big deal to get into the playoffs. And the chance to win a game or two and move on is exciting. The whole "anything can happen" dream type stuff is what sports are about. And even if I do think you are right in terms of who can legitimately win what is the point of not putting the most deserved teams in there? Anyway, not a big deal as I was just pointing out how this guy is thinking and how absurd it seems as of now..

[Redbird 4th & short]

IMO, there's really only 2-3 teams that have a legit chance at a title. One could argue that it's really only one. With a 24 team playoff you simply need teams to fill out the bracket so who those field fillers are really doesn't matter.
Couldn't disagree more Lehigh ... ask the other 22 or 23 schools' players, coaches, and fans what they think about getting their shot in playoffs. It all matters, regardless of who wins the Natty. FCS offers 24 teams a post season opportunity to extend their season ... typically, where there is the most controversy is in the top 8 seeds, and then the final 4-6 bubble teams. They can and should do better .. it matters to each and every affected team.

[MUHAWKS]

So 6-2 Monmouth beats 1-7 Lafeyette by 3 and 1-7 Wagner by 2 .. their SOS ranks #75 and their avg FCS margin is a whopping 11 points per game ... seriously ??? They play at 7-1 KSU next week, KSU schedule ranks #110 per Massey, but at least their avg margin is 27 points per game.

They need a new computer .. Massey Composite as of right now (just 15 polls up as of sunday morning) is 38th.

Well if MU beats Kennesaw and somehow does not slip up after that they will be the auto bid so what you say does not matter. I just hope you are saying the same thing about Kennesaw if we do beat them b/c they sure as hell will not deserve to get in as an at large.

[MUHAWKS]

So 6-2 Monmouth beats 1-7 Lafeyette by 3 and 1-7 Wagner by 2 .. their SOS ranks #75 and their avg FCS margin is a whopping 11 points per game ... seriously ??? They play at 7-1 KSU next week, KSU schedule ranks #110 per Massey, but at least their avg margin is 27 points per game.

They need a new computer .. Massey Composite as of right now (just 15 polls up as of sunday morning) is 38th.

Hey Redbird what do you mean just 15 polls up as of now?? There are 15 polls??? where?????? also, I see massey but do not see MU as 38th? can you pls advise me exactly where to look? And does Massey matter? Is it legit?

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Couldn't disagree more Lehigh ... ask the other 22 or 23 schools' players, coaches, and fans what they think about getting their shot in playoffs. It all matters, regardless of who wins the Natty. FCS offers 24 teams a post season opportunity to extend their season ... typically, where there is the most controversy is in the top 8 seeds, and then the final 4-6 bubble teams. They can and should do better .. it matters to each and every affected team.

I just don't like a 24 team playoff. Way too many participation trophies handed out to teams. This isn't basketball. With football there's a legit attrition factor that exists by having to play extra games against vastly inferior teams. I'm in favor of an 8-12 team playoff. Even if that means the PL rep only makes the playoffs once in a while.

[reeder]

If Monmouth ends up at 10-2 with losses to Kennesaw and Western Michigan, I think there’s a good argument for two teams from the Big South. Would obviously depends on how the other at large candidates look but I think it’s a good argument.

If CCSU runs the table, that would include defeating Duquesne and I don’t think an 8-3 Duquesne team gets in especially when one of the wins was against a division 2 team. However, if Duquesne runs the table (including defeating CCSU) and wins the NEC, they’d get the auto bid and then CCSU makes their case with a 10-2 record - I think they’d have a reasonable argument for an at large even.

Stony Brook will probably be favorite in each of their remaining games so they’re probably in a pretty good situation. Might come down to the last game of the season when they play Albany.

[MUHAWKS]

If Monmouth ends up at 10-2 with losses to Kennesaw and Western Michigan, I think there’s a good argument for two teams from the Big South. Would obviously depends on how the other at large candidates look but I think it’s a good argument.

If CCSU runs the table, that would include defeating Duquesne and I don’t think an 8-3 Duquesne team gets in especially when one of the wins was against a division 2 team. However, if Duquesne runs the table (including defeating CCSU) and wins the NEC, they’d get the auto bid and then CCSU makes their case with a 10-2 record - I think they’d have a reasonable argument for an at large even.

Stony Brook will probably be favorite in each of their remaining games so they’re probably in a pretty good situation. Might come down to the last game of the season when they play Albany.

I know what you meant but Monmouth cannot lose to Kennesaw and only have two losses- we lost to West Michigan and Montana already.. I assume you mean if MU beats KSU and Kennesaw only has two losses (FBS and MU) but then again if KSU loses to MU not sure how ANYONE on this board can say KSU deserves to get in since 2 wins are NON NCAA teams with ZERO "good" wins...If people think KSU should get in @ 10-2 losing to MU, not sure how they woulsdnt think MU should get in @ 9-3 if they play KSU tough.,., Makes no sense.. But we will see-- a lot should be ironed out this week...

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

IMO, there's really only 2-3 teams that have a legit chance at a title. One could argue that it's really only one. With a 24 team playoff you simply need teams to fill out the bracket so who those field fillers are really doesn't matter.

NDSU
JMU
SDSU

That is it for this year. Lots of pretenders.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Oh ya, Kennesaw will not win a game this playoff season.

Biggest overrated team in years besides Sammy a few years ago.

[Grizalltheway]

I just don't like a 24 team playoff. Way too many participation trophies handed out to teams. This isn't basketball. With football there's a legit attrition factor that exists by having to play extra games against vastly inferior teams. I'm in favor of an 8-12 team playoff. Even if that means the PL rep only makes the playoffs once in a while.
I get the argument that 24 teams is too many, but what "participation trophies" are being handed out? You get a chance to play another game, and if you lose it, you're done...

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

I get the argument that 24 teams is too many, but what "participation trophies" are being handed out? You get a chance to play another game, and if you lose it, you're done...

I would say the trophies are the "playoff participant" banners/signage that a lot of teams have.

[POD Knows]

NDSU
JMU
SDSU

That is it for this year. Lots of pretenders.Sac State? Weber State? I think SDSU struggles without their #1 QB, we will see how bad that injury was.

[Grizalltheway]

I would the trophies are the "playoff participant" banners/signage that a lot of teams have.
Are those being handed out by the NCAA?

[Lorne_Malvo]

Sac State? Weber State? I think SDSU struggles without their #1 QB, we will see how bad that injury was.

I heard a rumor that it was a injured MCL. I think he is back in time for the playoffs if the bunnies dont tank the next few games without him.

[F'N Hawks]

NDSU
JMU
SDSU

That is it for this year. Lots of pretenders.

Yes, but the only way to build a program is to make the playoffs and try to slowly advance further as you go on through the years.

Making the playoffs is a big deal for alot of programs.

[JayJ79]

I just don't like a 24 team playoff. Way too many participation trophies handed out to teams. This isn't basketball. With football there's a legit attrition factor that exists by having to play extra games against vastly inferior teams. I'm in favor of an 8-12 team playoff. Even if that means the PL rep only makes the playoffs once in a while.

get rid of the playoffs altogether! enough of this "proving it on the field" crap.
go back to the media selecting the "national champion" like the big boys did in the good old days. right Lehigh?

[/sarcasm]

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

get rid of the playoffs altogether! enough of this "proving it on the field" crap.
go back to the media selecting the "national champion" like the big boys did in the good old days. right Lehigh?

[/sarcasm]

I have no problem with a playoff but it shouldn't be more than 8-12 teams. I rather the 4 that FBS uses than the 24 in FCS. Just too much fluff/meaningless games.

[ElCid]

Hey Redbird what do you mean just 15 polls up as of now?? There are 15 polls??? where?????? also, I see massey but do not see MU as 38th? can you pls advise me exactly where to look? And does Massey matter? Is it legit?

Massey is a computer ranking and not a poll per se. The composite, which Massey puts up, is a "composite" of polls including other computer rankings (Sagarin, etc.), and actual human polls (Coaches, Stats, AGS, etc.). There are like 20-30 of these other ranking and computer polls. They trickle in all day Sunday to Monday. There are a lot of questionable computer ranking created. Some have some serious flaws. They might get evened out by all the others, but if you go check them out individually you would find some seriously jacked up rankings.

On the composite page, every poll has a link so you can go see them. Pure Massey, not the composite, is one of the most accurate predictors. Sagarin is not bad either, but a hair below Massey accuracy. For three years I tracked every FCS game and compared it to Massey and Sagarin predictions and Massey was about 2-3% better at 78% picking winners and losers. The scores are scary close sometimes as well. Not always, but enough to raise an eyebrow.

Massey https://www.masseyratings.com/cf2019/fcs/ratings

31185



Massey Composite https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm

You will notice the name of each rankings/poll above the actual poll...Massey is the first listed. Each name is an actual link to go to the source page. You will notice that there are only 12 up so far, as of the snapshot I took at 1PM Sunday.

31186

[Grizalltheway]

I have no problem with a playoff but it shouldn't be more than 8-12 teams. I rather the 4 that FBS uses than the 24 in FCS. Just too much fluff/meaningless games.
You don't have to watch if you find them to be meaningless. That doesn't mean that other people don't enjoy them.

[F'N Hawks]

You don't have to watch if you find them to be meaningless. That doesn't mean that other people don't enjoy them.

Agreed. If people don't like the first round matchups then start watching in the second round.

[NDSU1980]

Yes, but the only way to build a program is to make the playoffs and try to slowly advance further as you go on through the years.

Making the playoffs is a big deal for alot of programs.


If making the playoffs is a big deal, then that team is setting it's sights way too low. Besides, some teams manage to make the playoffs and then embarrass themselves with a loss. (at home too) I'm fully in favor of cutting the playoff field to 16.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Sac State? Weber State? I think SDSU struggles without their #1 QB, we will see how bad that injury was.


Not Weber. Their offense is not good enough to win the title. Sac State? No

[F'N Hawks]

If making the playoffs is a big deal, then that team is setting it's sights way too low. Besides, some teams manage to make the playoffs and then embarrass themselves with a loss. (at home too) I'm fully in favor of cutting the playoff field to 16.

Grow up, dude. Not everything has to NDSU/UND needledick ****.

No, making the playoffs isn't setting the bar low for teams that have never made the playoffs.

[UAalum72]

Not to mention he has Albany in and NOT Stony Brook. Hey, I know it is just predictions and for fun but wow.
.Why is this odd? Albany has one league loss, three overall, SBU two and three. Yesterday's Nova giveaway was Stony's first win over a team with a winning record. I haven't figured out the Seawolf love all year, except they made the playoffs last year (when they lost to Albany HTH) and people don't want to erase them

[mvfcfan]

I like the 24 team playoff. The only change I wouldn't mind seeing is neutral site games for the semifinals to create more of a Final 4 vibe.

[veinup]

I have no problem with a playoff but it shouldn't be more than 8-12 teams. I rather the 4 that FBS uses than the 24 in FCS. Just too much fluff/meaningless games.

i’d rather have more post season football than less. most football fans agree with me. FBS will expand its playoff soon enough.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

i’d rather have more post season football than less. most football fans agree with me. FBS will expand its playoff soon enough.

To me more is not better. I think the FCS/D2/D3 playoffs are extremely watered down. I also think there's way to many bowl games. I much rather Temple earn a legit bowl berth once or twice a decade rather than go some meaningless bowl each season.

[Bison56]

i’d rather have more post season football than less. most football fans agree with me. FBS will expand its playoff soon enough.

Definitely, no idea why people get bent out of shape about the amount of teams. Yes some aren't very good but no one said you have to watch them

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Definitely, no idea why people get bent out of shape about the amount of teams. Yes some aren't very good but no one said you have to watch them

It has nothing to do with watching them. It has to with the top 2 or 3 teams (really only serious contenders) having to play an additional game or two and risk losing players to injury.

[veinup]

It has nothing to do with watching them. It has to with the top 2 or 3 teams (really only serious contenders) having to play an additional game or two and risk losing players to injury.

so you’d suggest that the playoff system be built to protect two or three serious contenders..? i think the power in FCS is concentrated enough, no need to concentrate it any further. make the two or three serious contenders win some games.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

so you’d suggest that the playoff system be built to protect two or three serious contenders..? i think the power in FCS is concentrated enough, no need to concentrate it any further. make the two or three serious contenders win some games.

Absolutely! The playoffs should be to determine the best team. Nothing more, nothing less.

[nodak651]

But the top 8 already get a bye, so I dont see what his problem is? That brings it down to a 16 team field. I'd be fine with reducing the number of teams if there were no autobids I guess. But the best thing about fcs is teams can prove it on the field. No bs with good teams getting left out of the field.

[F'N Hawks]

It has nothing to do with watching them. It has to with the top 2 or 3 teams (really only serious contenders) having to play an additional game or two and risk losing players to injury.

The Top 8 don't play the first weekend anyway. ??

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

The Top 8 don't play the first weekend anyway. ??

I know. The second round games are usually the worst. That's when the teams that have no chance of winning the title get sent to the slaughter house.

I also don't think there should be automatic bids either. The only reason I bring this up is because I have no problem with the 2nd place team from the Big South or from the NEC getting in over the 4th place team from the MVFC, Big Sky or CAA. All those teams are irrelevant to the national title picture anyway. Those teams are just there to fill out the bracket.

[KPSUL]

Why is this odd? Albany has one league loss, three overall, SBU two and three. Yesterday's Nova giveaway was Stony's first win over a team with a winning record. I haven't figured out the Seawolf love all year, except they made the playoffs last year (when they lost to Albany HTH) and people don't want to erase them

I have no interest in viewing someone's guess about the playoff field this early. But in considering the CAA, it would be JMU and 3 Teams to be named later. And yes Albany has a good chance of being one of the 3. Unfortunately, I don't see any CAA team except JMU getting a seed - the end of the conference schedule will be mutually assured destruction.

[MUHAWKS]

Massey is a computer ranking and not a poll per se. The composite, which Massey puts up, is a "composite" of polls including other computer rankings (Sagarin, etc.), and actual human polls (Coaches, Stats, AGS, etc.). There are like 20-30 of these other ranking and computer polls. They trickle in all day Sunday to Monday. There are a lot of questionable computer ranking created. Some have some serious flaws. They might get evened out by all the others, but if you go check them out individually you would find some seriously jacked up rankings.

On the composite page, every poll has a link so you can go see them. Pure Massey, not the composite, is one of the most accurate predictors. Sagarin is not bad either, but a hair below Massey accuracy. For three years I tracked every FCS game and compared it to Massey and Sagarin predictions and Massey was about 2-3% better at 78% picking winners and losers. The scores are scary close sometimes as well. Not always, but enough to raise an eyebrow.

Massey https://www.masseyratings.com/cf2019/fcs/ratings

31185



Massey Composite https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm

You will notice the name of each rankings/poll above the actual poll...Massey is the first listed. Each name is an actual link to go to the source page. You will notice that there are only 12 up so far, as of the snapshot I took at 1PM Sunday.

31186

thanks a lot. Appreciate it.

[MUHAWKS]

Why is this odd? Albany has one league loss, three overall, SBU two and three. Yesterday's Nova giveaway was Stony's first win over a team with a winning record. I haven't figured out the Seawolf love all year, except they made the playoffs last year (when they lost to Albany HTH) and people don't want to erase them


Very valid point.

[MR. CHICKEN]

It has nothing to do with watching them. It has to with the top 2 or 3 teams (really only serious contenders) having to play an additional game or two and risk losing players to injury.


.....EVERAH WATCH....SELECTION SUNDAY?....PLAYERS EXPLODE....WHEN DEY'RE TEAM IS ANNOUNCED........DEY'VE....JES' COMPLETED...11 GAMES WHIFF THREAT UH INJURY......WHAT'S UH FEW MO'........AWK!

[JayJ79]

Absolutely! The playoffs should be to determine the best team. Nothing more, nothing less.


I much rather Temple earn a legit bowl berth once or twice a decade rather than go some meaningless bowl each season.
so according to your logic, the championship game is the only "legit" bowl, and everything else is meaningless.
Thus Temple will never ever get into a "legit" bowl.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

so according to your logic, the championship game is the only "legit" bowl, and everything else is meaningless.
Thus Temple will never ever get into a "legit" bowl.

There's probably 10-12 bowls that I believe are legitimate. But those are completely separate entities from than the playoff system. I highly, highly doubt the FBS playoffs will ever expand beyond 8 teams. I think 6 would be ideal with the top 2 getting byes....

I absolutely would rather Temple either go to a legit bowl or stay home. I said that in an earlier thread. Going to a meaningless bowl game with what is always a patchwork coaching staff accomplishes nothing.

I also don't believe 2013 Lafayette or 2017 Lehigh had any business being in the playoffs. No one should have been forced to play those garbage teams in a NCAA playoff game.

[Puddin Tane]

I like the playoffs, when else would we get to play, say NoIowa ( last year). They ain’t ever coming to Beaumont, we’ll never go up there. Wish we/they would, bit it is what it is.


Our area is so eat up with UT, aTm, and LSU...the more FCS exposure, the better.

[ngineer]

Sac State? Weber State? I think SDSU struggles without their #1 QB, we will see how bad that injury was.

Yes, I see these two as legitimate 'dark horse' contenders..any given Saturday.

[HootyHoo]

Oh ya, Kennesaw will not win a game this playoff season.

Biggest overrated team in years besides Sammy a few years ago.

Really? KSU always puts up a respectable showing in every game. Nobody enjoys playing Kennesaw State. The Owls haven't lost a game by more than 10 points since 2016, nobody blows us out. I assure you. We will beat Monmouth by 35 points, and advance to the quarterfinals where hopefully we play the Bison.

[TheKingpin28]

Really? KSU always puts up a respectable showing in every game. Nobody enjoys playing Kennesaw State. The Owls haven't lost a game by more than 10 points since 2016, nobody blows us out. I assure you. We will beat Monmouth by 35 points, and advance to the quarterfinals where hopefully we play the Bison.

Yes, cause beating 2nd year ETSU, Missouri S & T, North Greenville, Reinhardt, Point, Clark Atlanta X2, tUNA, was so hard. xcoffeex

Now, in ranked games, since 2016, you are 4-4. So what happens when you play a team with a pulse, your true colors show, and you are .500. I would love to have the Owls come up here so you can be the next Decembrist that gets **** on when they finally play a team that plays sound football.

Oh and BTW, you were losing 20-3 going into the 4th Q at HOME against SDSU.

[apaladin]

IF the SoCon gets 2 teams in they will be matched up in game 2. Always happens. Tale it to the bank.

[Gangtackle11]

Here is nobowls.com projections:

http://nobowls.com/

[JayJ79]

IF the SoCon gets 2 teams in they will be matched up in game 2. Always happens. Tale it to the bank.only when one of the teams gets a top 8 seed. And that's hardly exclusive to the SoCon. Happens with pretty much any conference that gets multiple teams in (other than maybe the CAA). if the unseeded team wins their first round game, they're likely to face the seeded team from their conference.

[MUHAWKS]

Really? KSU always puts up a respectable showing in every game. Nobody enjoys playing Kennesaw State. The Owls haven't lost a game by more than 10 points since 2016, nobody blows us out. I assure you. We will beat Monmouth by 35 points, and advance to the quarterfinals where hopefully we play the Bison.

You are out of your mind... You will beat us by 35?? What gives you that feeling? It def is not anything shown THIS YEAR where the 2 comparable games we both won by the exact same amount.Charleston Southern and Presbyterian High School. Of course nobody beats you by a lot and/or all games are close--- b/c ya'll run a triple option. I am not going to sit here and talk smack against a team that has smoked us two years in a row, that would be stupid, but believe me this years Monmouth team, if we play our "A" game, we will win by double digits. Only have to wait a few days to find out..But if the feeling around KSU is this will be a cakewalk, that makes me even more confident.

[Derby City Duke]

only when one of the teams gets a top 8 seed. And that's hardly exclusive to the SoCon. Happens with pretty much any conference that gets multiple teams in (other than maybe the CAA). if the unseeded team wins their first round game, they're likely to face the seeded team from their conference.

Since the field expanded to 24 teams in 2013, a CAA team has been bracketed to feed into another CAA team every year (provided the CAA team won its 1st game)

2013: UNH into Maine
2014: JMU* into Villanova
2015: UNH* into JMU
2016: UNH into JMU
2017: Stony Brook into JMU
2018: Delaware into JMU

*team lost 1st round game

[Noryan34]

How do the home team selection work for the first round.

Is every team notified they are in and to place bids and the 8 highest get home games?
Or do they pre-set match ups first and then the higher bid is the home team?

[clenz]

I like the playoffs, when else would we get to play, say NoIowa ( last year). They ain’t ever coming to Beaumont, we’ll never go up there. Wish we/they would, bit it is what it is.


Our area is so eat up with UT, aTm, and LSU...the more FCS exposure, the better.You act like uni doesn't play road games... Or go south

Uni had had H/H with SFA in the last decade. Played Nicholls. Played McNeese.

Other than teams UNI has shared a conference with the most played FCS teams in UNI history are

Drake 46
McNeese 11
YSU 11 - before they joined the Gateway
SFA - 10
Montana 7
EWU 7
Cal Poly 7
Idaho 6
SUU 5

Excluding the 30s-70s before what we know as the FCS was firmed Drake drops to 14.. and actually the real number is 3 after the true true FCS development is 85. Which also limits YSU quite a bit.

UNIs entire schedule for the last 15 years has been almost exclusively FBD and H/H games. I can think of maybe 4 buy games over that time.

Let's not act like UNI is the culprit for a potential series not existing.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

[Professor Chaos]

If today was Selection Sunday and the seeds matched my AGS poll ballot 7 of the 8 seeded teams would be located west of the Mississippi River. xwhistlex

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

If today was Selection Sunday and the seeds matched my AGS poll ballot 7 of the 8 seeded teams would be located west of the Mississippi River. xwhistlex

And rightfully so based on how things look today. Although, I still think 'Nova gets a seed if they finish 9-2.

[NY Crusader 2010]

I have to say I agree with Lehigh to a large extent regarding the size of the playoff field. Note that the FCS playoffs (unlike FBS) are governed by the NCAA. NCAA Tournament bylaws require the playoffs in any sport to have a total of at-large entries that are equal or greater than the number of automatic entries. This means that AT MINIMUM, the NCAA playoff field must have 20 teams for FCS football (10 auto, 10 at-large).

I do believe that we could do without teams 21-24 right now. In my opinion, teams seeded this low currently do not represent legitimate championship contenders. Perhaps someone can provide me with an example of why I'm wrong. So my answer to the question of playoff field size would be that we should stick to the NCAA requirement of 20. More top teams from the best conferences deserve the bye week. I'm sorry but there has been too much dumpster-diving over the last 6-8 years -- decent but not great second teams from the Patriot/Big South/NEC are now in the discussion if not in the field most years as well as 5-loss teams from power conferences.

What would be interesting is that if the Ivy, MEAC and SWAC all went all-in on the playoff party, you'd be looking at 13 auto-bids in addition to 13 at-large, so a minimum 26-team field. Plus the possibility of a re-branded FCS WAC.

[Gangtackle11]

And rightfully so based on how things look today. Although, I still think 'Nova gets a seed if they finish 9-2.

Nova plays 12 games this season. xpeacex

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Nova plays 12 games this season. xpeacex

10 D1 wins should be a lock. Even if 3 came against the PL. Better root for Lehigh xnodx

[Professor Chaos]

I have to say I agree with Lehigh to a large extent regarding the size of the playoff field. Note that the FCS playoffs (unlike FBS) are governed by the NCAA. NCAA Tournament bylaws require the playoffs in any sport to have a total of at-large entries that are equal or greater than the number of automatic entries. This means that AT MINIMUM, the NCAA playoff field must have 20 teams for FCS football (10 auto, 10 at-large).

I do believe that we could do without teams 21-24 right now. In my opinion, teams seeded this low currently do not represent legitimate championship contenders. Perhaps someone can provide me with an example of why I'm wrong. So my answer to the question of playoff field size would be that we should stick to the NCAA requirement of 20. More top teams from the best conferences deserve the bye week. I'm sorry but there has been too much dumpster-diving over the last 6-8 years -- decent but not great second teams from the Patriot/Big South/NEC are now in the discussion if not in the field most years as well as 5-loss teams from power conferences.

What would be interesting is that if the Ivy, MEAC and SWAC all went all-in on the playoff party, you'd be looking at 13 auto-bids in addition to 13 at-large, so a minimum 26-team field. Plus the possibility of a re-branded FCS WAC.
Warning: long rant incoming

This point about how the last few teams into the field shouldn't be allowed because they're not "legitimate title contenders" comes up every year and every year I have the same retort. If you want to only have a field of legitimate title contenders you should limit the field to 8 at most. The last time an unseeded team won the national title was Richmond in 2008 and that was when they only seeded 4 teams. Richmond was ranked in the top 8 in all the polls at the end of that regular season so they probably would've been seeded if they had 8 seeds like they do today. Since they expanded the field to 24 teams and started seeding 8 in 2013 the only unseeded team to even play in the championship game was YSU in 2016. The lowest seeded team to win a title in that time was JMU at #4 in 2016.

Now I don't think the playoffs should be contracted at all. A 24 team field is the right number IMO because it allows the committee to seed the top 8 (which should contain the legit title contenders) so at least amongst themselves they can play a true tournament where the higher seed hosts, the bracket is balanced, and those 8 teams get byes to avoid playing any horribly attended Thanksgiving weekend games. IMO a 24 team field with 8 seeds is superior to the previous iterations of the tournament that included a 20 team field with 5 seeds or a 16 team field with 4 seeds.

Now for the meat of my rant. The playoffs are more than just a mechanism to crown a champion. I use Incarnate Word as an example last year. Their football program is still in its infancy (I believe 2013 was the first season they had a team). They went 1-10 in 2017 but bounced back to take a share of the Southland title in 2018 (but didn't get the autobid). They were granted at at-large bid that wouldn't have been there with a 20 team field. The pride those players and coaches had to have felt to be playing postseason football last year isn't something to be taken lightly or discredited. Do you think they had legitimate national title aspirations? I doubt it but that doesn't mean they didn't play with just as much effort or more than a team that does. They went up to Bozeman and gave Montana St all they could handle in a highly entertaining opening round game. As a fan I'd rather have had that game played than never at all.

For some programs just making the playoffs is a monster deal, for some programs winning a game or two and making it to the quarterfinals is a monster deal. The notion that the playoffs are boring because the same team (or teams) win it or are in contention each year comes from people who don't watch playoff football. Just because a team's season didn't end in a national title doesn't make their season a forgettable failure. But there is something to be said for being given the opportunity to decide your fate on the field. The FCS is the highest level of college football where every single team (that wants to be or is in a conference that wants to be) will either win a national championship or lose it on the field and all that matters is winning or losing. If they win every game by a point they'll eventually win a national title. No one takes it from them except the guys lined up across from them between the white lines. That's closure most teams don't get at the FBS level.

I've watched my team play some great games late in the playoffs and I've watched my team play some great games early in the playoffs. I've watched my team win 30 of it's last 31 playoff games yet before every playoff game, as a fan, I still get a little pit in my stomach because it's the proverbial do or die scenario and you never truly know for sure whether or not you're watching this group take the field for the last time (unless it's in Frisco of course). It's a simple concept yet an indescribable feeling that, as a fan, you just can't get in a regular season game. I want more fans to be passionate about FCS football, I want more fans to have that same feeling before they watch their squad compete in that type of game where each team plays like there's no tomorrow because that's about as pure as sports competition gets.

There's no football like playoff football PERIOD

/rant

[HootyHoo]

You are out of your mind... You will beat us by 35?? What gives you that feeling? It def is not anything shown THIS YEAR where the 2 comparable games we both won by the exact same amount.Charleston Southern and Presbyterian High School. Of course nobody beats you by a lot and/or all games are close--- b/c ya'll run a triple option. I am not going to sit here and talk smack against a team that has smoked us two years in a row, that would be stupid, but believe me this years Monmouth team, if we play our "A" game, we will win by double digits. Only have to wait a few days to find out..But if the feeling around KSU is this will be a cakewalk, that makes me even more confident.

204-65
That is the aggregate score of the Kennesaw State vs monmouth series, 4 wins for the Owls. Spoiler Alert: It's about to be 5.

[Puddin Tane]

You act like uni doesn't play road games... Or go south

Uni had had H/H with SFA in the last decade. Played Nicholls. Played McNeese.

Other than teams UNI has shared a conference with the most played FCS teams in UNI history are

Drake 46
McNeese 11
YSU 11 - before they joined the Gateway
SFA - 10
Montana 7
EWU 7
Cal Poly 7
Idaho 6
SUU 5

Excluding the 30s-70s before what we know as the FCS was firmed Drake drops to 14.. and actually the real number is 3 after the true true FCS development is 85. Which also limits YSU quite a bit.

UNIs entire schedule for the last 15 years has been almost exclusively FBD and H/H games. I can think of maybe 4 buy games over that time.

Let's not act like UNI is the culprit for a potential series not existing.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

no, not what im saying. it just doesnt happen much. i wish we'd get more decent OOC games. i think since we brought back football, weve played 2 mvfc schools., sd and no iowa. instead, we schedule d2 or swac. its a logistics thing, i reckon.

you could say, Lamar doesnt go north....i dunno....fcs scheduling is tough...with the amount of teams in the southland, and the amount of teams in mo valley, just wish they play more often.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Warning: long rant incoming

This point about how the last few teams into the field shouldn't be allowed because they're not "legitimate title contenders" comes up every year and every year I have the same retort. If you want to only have a field of legitimate title contenders you should limit the field to 8 at most. The last time an unseeded team won the national title was Richmond in 2008 and that was when they only seeded 4 teams. Richmond was ranked in the top 8 in all the polls at the end of that regular season so they probably would've been seeded if they had 8 seeds like they do today. Since they expanded the field to 24 teams and started seeding 8 in 2013 the only unseeded team to even play in the championship game was YSU in 2016. The lowest seeded team to win a title in that time was JMU at #4 in 2016.

Now I don't think the playoffs should be contracted at all. A 24 team field is the right number IMO because it allows the committee to seed the top 8 (which should contain the legit title contenders) so at least amongst themselves they can play a true tournament where the higher seed hosts, the bracket is balanced, and those 8 teams get byes to avoid playing any horribly attended Thanksgiving weekend games. IMO a 24 team field with 8 seeds is superior to the previous iterations of the tournament that included a 20 team field with 5 seeds or a 16 team field with 4 seeds.

Now for the meat of my rant. The playoffs are more than just a mechanism to crown a champion. I use Incarnate Word as an example last year. Their football program is still in its infancy (I believe 2013 was the first season they had a team). They went 1-10 in 2017 but bounced back to take a share of the Southland title in 2018 (but didn't get the autobid). They were granted at at-large bid that wouldn't have been there with a 20 team field. The pride those players and coaches had to have felt to be playing postseason football last year isn't something to be taken lightly or discredited. Do you think they had legitimate national title aspirations? I doubt it but that doesn't mean they didn't play with just as much effort or more than a team that does. They went up to Bozeman and gave Montana St all they could handle in a highly entertaining opening round game. As a fan I'd rather have had that game played than never at all.

For some programs just making the playoffs is a monster deal, for some programs winning a game or two and making it to the quarterfinals is a monster deal. The notion that the playoffs are boring because the same team (or teams) win it or are in contention each year comes from people who don't watch playoff football. Just because a team's season didn't end in a national title doesn't make their season a forgettable failure. But there is something to be said for being given the opportunity to decide your fate on the field. The FCS is the highest level of college football where every single team (that wants to be or is in a conference that wants to be) will either win a national championship or lose it on the field and all that matters is winning or losing. If they win every game by a point they'll eventually win a national title. No one takes it from them except the guys lined up across from them between the white lines. That's closure most teams don't get at the FBS level.

I've watched my team play some great games late in the playoffs and I've watched my team play some great games early in the playoffs. I've watched my team win 30 of it's last 31 playoff games yet before every playoff game, as a fan, I still get a little pit in my stomach because it's the proverbial do or die scenario and you never truly know for sure whether or not you're watching this group take the field for the last time (unless it's in Frisco of course). It's a simple concept yet an indescribable feeling that, as a fan, you just can't get in a regular season game. I want more fans to be passionate about FCS football, I want more fans to have that same feeling before they watch their squad compete in that type of game where each team plays like there's no tomorrow because that's about as pure as sports competition gets.

There's no football like playoff football PERIOD

/rant

All those teams could have a shot at the playoffs. They simply would have to get better and earn their way in.

I'm a fan of a PL school and so is Crusader. We should fall into happy to be there and maybe win a game....or two category. With that said, I much rather win a game against a truly elite playoff team rather than one against another middling playoff team. The Richmond team in '98 that Lehigh beat was #3, WIU in '00 was #7 and Hofstra in '01 was #9. In 2011 they got a bye to the round of 16 where they beat #9 Towson (bye as well). Those are big time playoff wins. Colgate made it to the Title game in a 16 team field. They beat #5 Umass, #6 Western Illinois and #4 FAU to make it to the Chattanooga. No free passes.

[gofurman]

Couldn't disagree more Lehigh ... ask the other 22 or 23 schools' players, coaches, and fans what they think about getting their shot in playoffs. It all matters, regardless of who wins the Natty. FCS offers 24 teams a post season opportunity to extend their season ... typically, where there is the most controversy is in the top 8 seeds, and then the final 4-6 bubble teams. They can and should do better .. it matters to each and every affected team.

100% with you red bird. the coaches and players want to play in postseason even if they can’t win it all. Goals are 1. winning season. 2 make Playoffs. 3. Conference champion plus playoffs. Etc. it’s memories that last a lifetime. If people don’t think making playoffs matters to kids all you have to do is watch excitement or disappointment on TV when they show a team selected or not selected. Think about the TV show of NCAA basketball and how kids are so torn up if they aren’t selected. They WANT to be in the dance. And some of those (basketball) teams have NO chance at beating Duke or UVA or UK. But they get their shining moment and wacky things happen @ Maryland Baltimore County beating UVA who won a natty the next year.
I know a Furman football team that was so excited to get back to playoffs in 2017 and win SoCon in 2018

[mvfcfan]

Let's see. YSU, KSU, and NDSU all made runs in the playoffs when no one considered them serious contenders. In basketball Loyola, Wichita, VCU, and Butler all made runs when no one considered them contenders. Having 24 teams is not an issue. If you are truly better prove it on the field. Every FCS conference has a right to an automatic bid and the playoffs are done the right way.

[Professor Chaos]

All those teams could have a shot at the playoffs. They simply would have to get better and earn their way in.

I'm a fan of a PL school and so is Crusader. We should fall into happy to be there and maybe win a game....or two category. With that said, I much rather win a game against a truly elite playoff team rather than one against another middling playoff team. The Richmond team in '98 that Lehigh beat was #3, WIU in '00 was #7 and Hofstra in '01 was #9. In 2011 they got a bye to the round of 16 where they beat #9 Towson (bye as well). Those are big time playoff wins. Colgate made it to the Title game in a 16 team field. They beat #5 Umass, #6 Western Illinois and #4 FAU to make it to the Chattanooga. No free passes.
You still have to beat those same type of teams to make it deep in a 24 team field that you did to make it deep in a 16 or 20 team field. The thing is the last few at large teams usually aren't the (real or perceived) weakest teams in the field, it's usually a conference autobid or two. That wouldn't go away with a playoff field contracted to 20 (at least I sure hope they wouldn't even consider taking away autobids). So the pretenders get weeded out quickly on Thanksgiving weekend anyway. With the old 16 team format in 2017 some team would've just had to beat 5-6 Lehigh to make the quarterfinals... I'd rather give a team a soft playoff win like that to get to the round of 16 rather than the quarters.

In any case if the final few at-larges are so weak they won't make it out of Thanksgiving weekend anyway. The only figurative expense of putting them in the field is one of the other bottom 16 teams has to play an extra game and I've already pointed out that the champ is very unlikely to come from outside the top 8 anyway. This 24 team format makes the round of 16 games more interesting just because the teams challenging the seeds have to win a playoff just to get there.

The playoff contraction argument just has holes all over it IMO.

[Bison56]

.....EVERAH WATCH....SELECTION SUNDAY?....PLAYERS EXPLODE....WHEN DEY'RE TEAM IS ANNOUNCED........DEY'VE....JES' COMPLETED...11 GAMES WHIFF THREAT UH INJURY......WHAT'S UH FEW MO'........AWK!

Mr. Chicken nailed it, end discussion.

[MayorOfHenTown]

Here's my playoff bracket after Week 9. The first team listed is the home team in the first round.

Jacksonville State/Southern Illinois winner at 1 NDSU
Lehigh/Albany winner at 8 Northern Iowa
Furman/South Carolina State winner at 4 SDSU
Montana State/San Diego winner at 5 Sac State
Stony Brook/Elon winner at 2 JMU
Villanoa/CCSU winner at 7 Kennesaw State
Central Arkansas/SEMO winner at 3 Weber State
Illinois State/UND winner at 6 Montana

Last Four In: South Carolina State, Southern Illinois, UND, Elon

First Four Out: Incarnate Word, McNeese, The Citadel, Nicholls

[katss07]

Here's my playoff bracket after Week 9. The first team listed is the home team in the first round.

Jacksonville State/Southern Illinois winner at 1 NDSU
Lehigh/Albany winner at 8 Northern Iowa
Furman/South Carolina State winner at 4 SDSU
Montana State/San Diego winner at 5 Sac State
Stony Brook/Elon winner at 2 JMU
Villanoa/CCSU winner at 7 Kennesaw State
Central Arkansas/SEMO winner at 3 Weber State
Illinois State/UND winner at 6 Montana

Last Four In: South Carolina State, Southern Illinois, UND, Elon

First Four Out: Incarnate Word, McNeese, The Citadel, Nicholls
Hey man, good looking bracket. Why would UIW, McNeese or Nicholls be considered over SHSU, who has the head to head over all three and is currently tied at second in the SLC.

[MayorOfHenTown]

Hey man, good looking bracket. Why would UIW, McNeese or Nicholls be considered over SHSU, who has the head to head over all three and is currently tied at second in the SLC.

They could make it back in if the SLC gets even crazier, but here's why I left them out. A few weeks ago, I read in a Hero Sports Mailbag article that Southland teams would probably need to get 8 D1 wins to make the playoffs. Looking at SHSU's results, they have 4 D1 wins and a D2 win. So that would mean they would need to get 4 more D1 wins to make post season, but they only have 3 games left. Therefore, there is no way for them to get to 8 D1 wins.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Hey Redbird what do you mean just 15 polls up as of now?? There are 15 polls??? where?????? also, I see massey but do not see MU as 38th? can you pls advise me exactly where to look? And does Massey matter? Is it legit?

Sounds like you aren't familiar with Massey Composite ... Massey has their own propietary ranking system. But that is not all they do. They also are very willing to recognize that no single formula approach works best for all situations. And even more to point, subjective plling systems like Coaches Poll are more like representative democracies where coaches bias and limited regional familiarity, not too mention, they are just plain too busy (and lazy) to focus on national rankings during game weeks preparing for next game.

So Massey also collects a whole bunch of different ranking systems and polls and brings them altogether and published each of them and their composite averages and ranks the composite for each team based on all available polls. As of today, they have 31 different polls and their composite average ranking by end of each week the # of polls keeps growing, as well as by end of season when it is now up to 45 different polls .. most are computer driven results like Massey, Sagarin, etc, I think only a handful are subjective polls like Coaches Poll, STATS poll, AGS poll. In recent years AGS has consistently proven to be the most accurate subject poll .. largely due to all thr transparency and debate this AGS forum provides. But the Massey Composite of 45 polls is hard to ignore .. it at the very least is objective and represents tyhe average of a a lot of different methods. Plus it is easy to use for most part ... and again, very objective. I also use it for SOS when drilling down on specific teams.

Monmouth is still 38th after the poll count doubles to about 31 since I posted yesterday. it will keep adding more polls as they each publish throughout the week.

https://www.masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cf&sub=fcs

[Redbird 4th & short]

Well if MU beats Kennesaw and somehow does not slip up after that they will be the auto bid so what you say does not matter. I just hope you are saying the same thing about Kennesaw if we do beat them b/c they sure as hell will not deserve to get in as an at large.
well KSU FCS margin of win is 27 and Monmouth is just 11 .. but yes, if Monmouth wins at KSU, that will probably determine the autobid.

But as of now, you are 6-2 with 2 very weak wins against bad teams. Not a playoff resume at this point with your overal SOS.

[Redbird 4th & short]

I just don't like a 24 team playoff. Way too many participation trophies handed out to teams. This isn't basketball. With football there's a legit attrition factor that exists by having to play extra games against vastly inferior teams. I'm in favor of an 8-12 team playoff. Even if that means the PL rep only makes the playoffs once in a while.
I just think any sports league that lets just 25% of its field of teams into playoffs seems about right. Most sports leaugues allow higher %'s into post season .. so FCS is not a league I think over-saturates their playoffs .. other than certain autobids. Then there is just the simple idea that any top 25 team shoudl have a shot at post season ... aand it should not matter at all that NDSU has won 7 of 8 Nattys ... that should have zero consideration in this debate. Playoffs are about rewarding good teams with a post season chance to keep proving how good they are. 25% is hardly too many teams by conmparison to most leagues post seasons.

I also think the 8 playing games to the top 8 seeds is perfect format. Putting aside bad bids, I fully accept the budgeting reality of the home teams getting rewarded with home games even if they aren't the better team. $ and #s matter unfortunately .. it has to be affordable.

So I wouldn;t change a thing, other than forcing the committee to adopt an objective SOS consideration like the Massey Composite into their decision making.

[clenz]

Sounds like you aren't familiar with Massey Composite ... Massey has their own propietary ranking system. But that is not all they do. They also are very willing to recognize that no single formula approach works best for all situations. And even more to point, subjective plling systems like Coaches Poll are more like representative democracies where coaches bias and limited regional familiarity, not too mention, they are just plain too busy (and lazy) to focus on national rankings during game weeks preparing for next game.

So Massey also collects a whole bunch of different ranking systems and polls and brings them altogether and published each of them and their composite averages and ranks the composite for each team based on all available polls. As of today, they have 31 different polls and their composite average ranking by end of each week the # of polls keeps growing, as well as by end of season when it is now up to 45 different polls .. most are computer driven results like Massey, Sagarin, etc, I think only a handful are subjective polls like Coaches Poll, STATS poll, AGS poll. In recent years AGS has consistently proven to be the most accurate subject poll .. largely due to all thr transparency and debate this AGS forum provides. But the Massey Composite of 45 polls is hard to ignore .. it at the very least is objective and represents tyhe average of a a lot of different methods. Plus it is easy to use for most part ... and again, very objective. I also use it for SOS when drilling down on specific teams.

Monmouth is still 38th after the poll count doubles to about 31 since I posted yesterday. it will keep adding more polls as they each publish throughout the week.

https://www.masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cf&sub=fcs
I mostly enjoy computer rankings and see their value.

They are always interesting to watch.

UNI, for instance, seems to have been punished in a few different places for beating Missouri State - which is how they work because SoS takes a hit by playing MSU.

Meanwhile in more than a couple of them MSU is up 12-15 spots

[Daytripper]

Oh ya, Kennesaw will not win a game this playoff season.

Biggest overrated team in years besides Sammy a few years ago.

Yet Sammy won a lot of playoff games while being "overrated." What does that make the teams they beat?

[clenz]

Well if MU beats Kennesaw and somehow does not slip up after that they will be the auto bid so what you say does not matter. I just hope you are saying the same thing about Kennesaw if we do beat them b/c they sure as hell will not deserve to get in as an at large.
Neither of you deserve an at-large. The Big South literally never deserves and at-large.

I'm all for autobids for every conference. Beyond that? Hell no.

Then again, playing Monmouth is like having a first round bye anyway for schools like UNI.

[Redbird 4th & short]

I mostly enjoy computer rankings and see their value.

They are always interesting to watch.

UNI, for instance, seems to have been punished in a few different places for beating Missouri State - which is how they work because SoS takes a hit by playing MSU.

Meanwhile in more than a couple of them MSU is up 12-15 spots

I rely heavily on Massey Composite for first half of each season. By midseason, I think AGS has their sh-t together by far better than any other subjective poll. So I use those 2 sources. When I'm in a hurry, I'll default to using Massey (their own poll) for SOS (not for ranking) becaue they make it so easy compared to Massey Composite. but when I dig in I rely on Massey Composite. And I don't claim to watch other games .. and I doubt many people watch very many games outside their own team, and especially not outside their conference. So i always laugh when people argue, "you need to watch my team play before you judge my team" ... seriously now ??? I'm not Mel Kiper or Chris Berman ... so no, I don't need to watch other games ... there are way too many and I know for fact, I'm not that smart. So I trust the average of all the polls outside our conference for sure.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Yet Sammy won a lot of playoff games while being "overrated." What does that make the teams they beat?

I had Sammy in my top 5 programs until the last few years. i always thought they were legit good. But IMO the simply didn't play tough enough schedule to properly prepare for playoffs. Then they would usually get smoked agianst a truly good team who wasn't wowed by their offense .. moreso because they were just not prepared for a truly competitive game against someone who plays defense. But I never thought they were as "bad" as their 30+ point playoff losses .. they just didn't know how to handle the adversity.

[Daytripper]

I had Sammy in my top 5 programs until the last few years. i always thought they were legit good. But IMO the simply didn't play tough enough schedule to properly prepare for playoffs. Then they would usually get smoked agianst a truly good team who wasn't wowed by their offense .. moreso because they were just not prepared for a truly competitive game against someone who plays defense. But I never thought they were as "bad" as their 30+ point playoff losses .. they just didn't know how to handle the adversity.

Not arguing that we finished seasons ugly. Of course it was usually to the eventual national champion. I was just pointing out that the comparison NW NM was making was illegitimate because he was calling KSU out for not winning playoff games while highly ranked, i.e. overrated. The only team in FCS that has won more playoff games than SHSU in the last decade is NDSU. And I agree with you about the weak Southland of the past. Now SLC teams are just devouring each other.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Not arguing that we finished seasons ugly. Of course it was usually to the eventual national champion. I was just pointing out that the comparison NW NM was making was illegitimate because he was calling KSU out for not winning playoff games while highly ranked, i.e. overrated. The only team in FCS that has won more playoff games than SHSU in the last decade is NDSU. And I agree with you about the weak Southland of the past. Now SLC teams are just devouring each other.
I think KSU has very recenly proven to be legit top 20 and has nevr embarrassed themselves in playoffs of late anyway. But why they settled for such a weak OOC schedule this year, knowing their Big South SOS is always very weak, boggles my mind. No legit program in a bad conference should settle for so many weak OOC games ... even their FBS game was relatively weak .. and they lost. So while I think they probably deserve a bid ... they should not be rewarded or given benefit of doubt with their OOC schedule so weak. If they lose to Monmouth, they shouldn't get a bid.

Please play somebody if you think you are playoff caliber program !!!!

[KSUFAN]

I think KSU has very recenly proven to be legit top 20 and has nevr embarrassed themselves in playoffs of late anyway. But why they settled for such a weak OOC schedule this year, knowing their Big South SOS is always very weak, boggles my mind. No legit program in a bad conference should settle for so many weak OOC games ... even their FBS game was relatively weak .. and they lost. So while I think they probably deserve a bid ... they should not be rewarded or given benefit of doubt with their OOC schedule so weak. If they lose to Monmouth, they shouldn't get a bid.

Please play somebody if you think you are playoff caliber program !!!!

Redbird it has been said a lot on here. We know this year's OOC sucks! The original schedule had Furman and Dusquesne on it. Both were home games from home/home deal. Late in the game they backed out and KSU had to scramble. Not many FCS schools have openings this late and are willing to come play. That is the only reason Point and Rhinehardt were on the schedule. They had to be home games because of the season tickets already being sold at this point.

[MSUBobcat]

Mr. Chicken nailed it, end discussion.

This should have never been a discussion. The overwhelming majority of us like the number of teams. We like getting to watch our team for one or two more weeks. The players, especially seniors, definitely like getting to suit up one more time. Some of the first round host schools like the extra game to add to their coffers (I realize not all hosts can make a sizable profit on the Thanksgiving weekend). And the coaches like making the playoffs to aid in name recognition and recruiting, because it's definitely a better selling point to upper level recruits to say you made the playoffs last year and even won a game than to say you haven't made the playoffs in x years. This goes a long way toward becoming one of those true "contenders" down the road. Success begets success.

Lehigh and NY Crusader don't like the playoff setup. So be it. It's very difficult to change opinions so this is just a bunch of xdeadhorsex.

[Professor Chaos]

Redbird it has been said a lot on here. We know this year's OOC sucks! The original schedule had Furman and Dusquesne on it. Both were home games from home/home deal. Late in the game they backed out and KSU had to scramble. Not many FCS schools have openings this late and are willing to come play. That is the only reason Point and Rhinehardt were on the schedule. They had to be home games because of the season tickets already being sold at this point.
I think most everyone can sympathize with KSU there. Pretty much the only reason I rag on their SOS is you have a pretty vocal fellow KSU fan on this board that loves to point out how statistically dominant they've been this year.

[KSUFAN]

I think most everyone can sympathize with KSU there. Pretty much the only reason I rag on their SOS is you have a pretty vocal fellow KSU fan on this board that loves to point out how statistically dominant they've been this year.

I get it. I have to say you guys are relentless! It's all good!

[Redbird 4th & short]

Redbird it has been said a lot on here. We know this year's OOC sucks! The original schedule had Furman and Dusquesne on it. Both were home games from home/home deal. Late in the game they backed out and KSU had to scramble. Not many FCS schools have openings this late and are willing to come play. That is the only reason Point and Rhinehardt were on the schedule. They had to be home games because of the season tickets already being sold at this point.
oh, that would explain it .. and Furman was expected to be solid, though Duquense not so much but not a patsy either. Do you happen to know why Furman canceled and who they scheduled in your place ?

[clenz]

I think most everyone can sympathize with KSU there. Pretty much the only reason I rag on their SOS is you have a pretty vocal fellow KSU fan on this board that loves to point out how statistically dominant they've been this year.
I remember last week a KSU fan talking about how dominant they were over Missouri State and how they shut down the MSU run game showing how they could dominate MVFC LoSs

So now we can compare UNI and KSU

UNI gave up 6 points - after the game was a 4 TD game late in the 4th and starters were mostly pulled.
UNI gave up 16 yards rushing on 31 attempts.
Outside of that TD drive against reserves in a 4 score game UNI gave up 79 total yards on the game

KSU was trailing at half time
KSU gave up 24 points
KSU gave up nearly 400 yards of offense

KSU fans fought back on me that "we only gave up 93 yards rushing so we dominated them" when I said "KSU didn't look good and outside of 3 big scoring plays (which I admitted couldn't be taken off the board) MSU won that game"

KSU had scoring plays (not drives...plays) 75 yards 67 yards 85 yards. I guess those were the drives too. They were 1 play drives. 21 of KSU's 34 points came on MSU blowing defensive coverage. Half of KSU's yards came on those plays. They really really struggled to sustain a drive against MSU. Unless they hit a big play they had no ability to move the ball.


It's not that I don't watch KSU. I do - not every single play - but I watch quite a bit of football. When it comes to the eye test they really struggle IMO to look like anything other than the best Big South program.

[Reign of Terrier]

oh, that would explain it .. and Furman was expected to be solid, though Duquense not so much but not a patsy either. Do you happen to know why Furman canceled and who they scheduled in your place ?

I'm coming out of retirement for this post because it's a point of information no one has said on the message boards:

Furman cancelled because Virginia Tech moved the date of their already-scheduled game to where the Kennesaw State game would be (it was for ACC Network TV scheduling reasons). Obviously, Furman is going to keep the money game with VT over the KSU game, so it's my understanding that the FU-KSU game will be played in the future in the 2020s. Because Furman still wanted to play 12 games, but couldn't find an FCS game last minute, they scheduled Georgia State.

[KSUFAN]

oh, that would explain it .. and Furman was expected to be solid, though Duquense not so much but not a patsy either. Do you happen to know why Furman canceled and who they scheduled in your place ?

Not 100% sure. Heard something with FBS team they scheduled had to be moved around which put their only bye week the week KSU was to play. Believe ultimately dropped KSU and Point was put on their schedule due to scheduling availability. KSU was rescheduled for 2023

[BadlandsGrizFan]

Here is nobowls.com projections:

http://nobowls.com/

Much more accurate in my opinion.

[KSUFAN]

Not 100% sure. Heard something with FBS team they scheduled had to be moved around which put their only bye week the week KSU was to play. Believe ultimately dropped KSU and Point was put on their schedule due to scheduling availability. KSU was rescheduled for 2023


Here is link of Furman 2019 schedule announcement. They either added Charleston Southern or Point
https://fbschedules.com/furman-releases-2019-football-schedule/

[NY Crusader 2010]

Prof - you make some great points. I've been a rabid follower of I-AA / FCS football since 1994 so I agree with you that the more quality football teams get to enjoy postseason football the better.

Here's an idea: FCS BOWL GAMES to celebrate the squads that had good seasons but aren't potential title contenders. This idea actually came to my mind a few years back in 2014 or 2015 when, at the FBS level, the 6-win requirement had to be waived because there weren't enough eligible teams to fill the bowl slots. IIRC there were at least two bowl games that year featuring 5-7 P5 schools -- Minnesota was one. I remember thinking, "why not give the opportunity to a 7-or-8 win FCS team that got snubbed?" Plenty of those teams would have been able to compete with a 6-6 or 7-5 FBS. And the players and fans would be beyond jacked up. Much more so than a power conference team who probably only agreed to go because of a razor-thin locker room vote on whether or not to play the game. This got me to thinking, " Why NOT have bowl games in FCS to celebrate squads who had winning records but didn't make the playoff field?" Even though the games would be played at home sites, these games could have the potential to be a lot of fun for those involved. Imagine VMI finishing with 6 wins this year -- I'm sure they would be over the moon at the prospect of playing a postseason game.

[JacksFan40]

Prof - you make some great points. I've been a rabid follower of I-AA / FCS football since 1994 so I agree with you that the more quality football teams get to enjoy postseason football the better.

Here's an idea: FCS BOWL GAMES to celebrate the squads that had good seasons but aren't potential title contenders. This idea actually came to my mind a few years back in 2014 or 2015 when, at the FBS level, the 6-win requirement had to be waived because there weren't enough eligible teams to fill the bowl slots. IIRC there were at least two bowl games that year featuring 5-7 P5 schools -- Minnesota was one. I remember thinking, "why not give the opportunity to a 7-or-8 win FCS team that got snubbed?" Plenty of those teams would have been able to compete with a 6-6 or 7-5 FBS. And the players and fans would be beyond jacked up. Much more so than a power conference team who probably only agreed to go because of a razor-thin locker room vote on whether or not to play the game. This got me to thinking, " Why NOT have bowl games in FCS to celebrate squads who had winning records but didn't make the playoff field?" Even though the games would be played at home sites, these games could have the potential to be a lot of fun for those involved. Imagine VMI finishing with 6 wins this year -- I'm sure they would be over the moon at the prospect of playing a postseason game.
It’s not hard to make the playoffs as it is. Bowl games for non playoff teams would be participation trophies.

[Professor Chaos]

Prof - you make some great points. I've been a rabid follower of I-AA / FCS football since 1994 so I agree with you that the more quality football teams get to enjoy postseason football the better.

Here's an idea: FCS BOWL GAMES to celebrate the squads that had good seasons but aren't potential title contenders. This idea actually came to my mind a few years back in 2014 or 2015 when, at the FBS level, the 6-win requirement had to be waived because there weren't enough eligible teams to fill the bowl slots. IIRC there were at least two bowl games that year featuring 5-7 P5 schools -- Minnesota was one. I remember thinking, "why not give the opportunity to a 7-or-8 win FCS team that got snubbed?" Plenty of those teams would have been able to compete with a 6-6 or 7-5 FBS. And the players and fans would be beyond jacked up. Much more so than a power conference team who probably only agreed to go because of a razor-thin locker room vote on whether or not to play the game. This got me to thinking, " Why NOT have bowl games in FCS to celebrate squads who had winning records but didn't make the playoff field?" Even though the games would be played at home sites, these games could have the potential to be a lot of fun for those involved. Imagine VMI finishing with 6 wins this year -- I'm sure they would be over the moon at the prospect of playing a postseason game.
Hard pass for me. Maybe for others that's their cup of tea but I would much rather have my team get a shot at a title even if there's a .01% chance they have of winning it. I hate all the **** bowls they have these days in FBS-land. Like I said different strokes for different folks but I'd have little interest in watching my team postseason exhibition to close out the season.... at least in comparison to watching them in a playoff.

[Professor Chaos]

Here's my take if the playoffs started this week (autobid is the first team listed in each conference).

MVFC (5): North Dakota St, South Dakota St, Northern Iowa, Illinois St, Southern Illinois
CAA (4): James Madison, Stony Brook, Villanova, New Hampshire
Big Sky (4): Sacramento St, Weber St, Montana, Montana St
Southland (2): Central Arkansas, Sam Houston St
OVC (2): Austin Peay, Southeast Missouri St
Big South (2): Kennesaw St, Monmouth
SOCON (1): Furman
NEC (1): Central Connecticut St
Pioneer (1): San Diego
Patriot (1): Lehigh
Independent (1): North Dakota

Last 4 in: New Hampshire, Southeast Missouri St, Monmouth, Southern Illinois
First 4 out: Incarnate Word, Nicholls, Wofford, Albany


San Diego @ North Dakota at #1 North Dakota St
Southeast Missouri St @ Illinois St at #8 Northern Iowa
Sam Houston St @ Montana St at #5 Weber St
Central Connecticut St @ New Hampshire at #4 Sacramento St
Furman @ Kennesaw St at #3 South Dakota St
Lehigh @ Stony Brook at #6 Montana
Austin Peay @ Southern Illinois at #7 Central Arkansas
Monmouth @ Villanova at #2 James Madison

[Reign of Terrier]

God damn it, y'all have me posting here again. I wouldn't bet on a Big South or OVC team getting a second team in before the Socon. Since the field expanded to 22+ teams in 2010, the Southern Conference has only not gotten two+ teams once. That was 2014, when the second and third place teams didn't have 7 Division one wins.

In fact, if you play in any conference that has ever gotten an at-large bid in the last 10 years, sans the Patriot and MEAC (see 2015 Colgate beating Fordham and the <shrug emoji> that the celebration bowl has done to the MEAC since 2015) you have an 85% chance of getting into the playoffs if you reach 7 Division one wins. Since 2013, still roughly 85%. And yes, that includes 12 game seasons.

Point blank, I think we overestimated quality wins at this stage and put emphasis on things the committee does not, and underemphasize stuff that the committee does, namely politics and prior playoff performances:



There's evidence to suggest that the committee cares a lot about prior playoff performance. Monmouth being boatraced by UNI made them the first 7 D1 win Big South team the next year to miss the playoffs. In 2016 (I think) New hampshire beat only one team with a winning record all year and got in because they're New Hampshire and the committee knows them.
There's also evidence to suggest that the MVFC is really the only conference where getting ~D1 wins is a guarantee at the playoffs (what teams didn't make the playoffs with those wins, were made up numerically by 6 win teams with FBS wins; below's chart doesn't include the teams that made it in without 7 D1 wins)
A lot of times people will look to examples such as McNeese in 2017 and say that, outside of the CAA/MVFC/Big Sky, your record doesn't really matter if you don't have quality win. That fails to consider the fact that MSU was *4th* in the Southland that year. I think it's more accurate to say that the playoff committee will shamelessly plug 4+ in non-MVFC conferences if the bubble is sufficiently weak, but if the bubble is strong, your conference standing is more predictive.
If the bubble is sufficiently weak, anything can happen. I still don't know how Furman got passed for both Lamar and Incarnate Word last year. I still don't know how Samford got into the playoffs in 2016.


If anyone cares about my data, here it is, since 2010 (I have a 2013 number, but it's a little confusing because the committee has been more lenient with 6 d1 wins since then, even though the overall probability hasn't changed:


Total
total
playoff teams
chance
average per year


Big Sky
34
28
82.35%
3.1


Big South
14
13
92.86%
1.4


CAA
45
37
82.22%
4.1


MVFC
33
30
90.91%
3.3


OVC
22
17
77.27%
1.9


Southern
25
22
88.00%
2.4


Southland
22
19
86.36%
2.1



195
166
85.13%
18.4



The higher number of bids for the Big sky and CAA, combined with the lower probability of getting in at 7 D1 wins suggests that the committee won't select the 4th or 5th place CAA/Big Sky over a comparable Southland/OVC/Southern school. They will give the MVFC the bid though. The Big South is the outlier right now because most of their at large teams in the past are no longer in conference.

What I would look for when conducting bracketology:
1) Just assume the MVFC gets 5 in
2) If the Citadel finishes 7-5, I would say they have a strong chance of getting in with P5 victory, so long as the 5 losses aren't to a team below .500. As far as I can tell, no 7-D1 win team with a P5 victory has been passed up for the playoffs (though fourth place big sky teams with G5 victories did)
3) Wofford has a strong chance of getting in at 7-4 because of prior performances.
4) FAMU is prohibited from post-season play. If A&T or SC State finish 8-3 or better (Presuming A&T beats Bethune Cookman), I have a hard time seeing the loser of their game being left out of the field, especially if Elon and Wofford continue winning. This will especially be the case if FAMU finishes undefeated in the MEAC. You may not like it, you may think it's undeserved, but it's a possibility and probability *especially if Wofford wins the Socon*.
5) If any conference gets hosed, it'll probably be the OVC
6) You may also hate it, but the Big South may steal a second bid, even if they don't deserve it in the eyes of many posters here.

In my personal, not-quite-falsifiable-at-this-point opinion, I think the CAA/Big sky will get 4 in at most. The nonsense that's happening at the bottom 2/3 of those leagues is indistinguishible from what's happening among the Southland/OVC/Southern. MVFC teams can feel comfy. Given history, the CAA/Big Sky do not. I would rather be the second or third place Southland/OVC/Southern than the fourth place Big sky/CAA team.

[mvfcfan]

I think the only way SIU makes it is if they beat NDSU their final game which probably isn't going to happen. Only way MVFC gets 5 is if YSU can finish 3-1 to end the season. I kind of doubt that happens too. I think is's a 3-4 bid league this year. ILST and UNI still have several tough games left and are not locks yet either.

[Professor Chaos]

I think the only way SIU makes it is if they beat NDSU their final game which probably isn't going to happen.
Depends a lot on the strength of the bubble but it's not shaping up to be particularly strong so I think a 7-5 SIU has a pretty good chance to make it in. They'd probably need wins against UT Martin and Youngstown St to hold up as quality wins throughout the rest of the year but they've got that ace in their pocket with the FBS win over UMass. I think most everyone here understands that UMass is probably not even a top 40 team in the FCS but I know the selection committee loves them some FBS wins. Add to that the fact that SIU would be 5-3 in the MVFC with no bad losses and I think they'd be on the better looking side of the bubble in that scenario.

[Redbird 4th & short]

God damn it, y'all have me posting here again. I wouldn't bet on a ... blah blah blah. They will give the MVFC the bid though. The Big South is the ... blah blah blah.

Yes !!! I have it in writing !!!

https://media.giphy.com/media/13yzdAlqgvnFpm/giphy.gif
(https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwijruvGyb_lAhXlYd8KHaxLC5IQjRx6BAgBEAQ&url=%2Furl%3Fsa%3Di%26source%3Dimages%26cd%3D%26ve d%3D%26url%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fgiphy.com%252Fgif s%252Freaction-winning-charlie-sheen-x0kMYoT7J31i8%26psig%3DAOvVaw0zrxnFCam9zjsyTe5Wbqf M%26ust%3D1572373404459573&psig=AOvVaw0zrxnFCam9zjsyTe5WbqfM&ust=1572373404459573)

[Reign of Terrier]

Yes !!! I have it in writing !!!

https://media.giphy.com/media/x0kMYoT7J31i8/giphy.gif
(https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwijruvGyb_lAhXlYd8KHaxLC5IQjRx6BAgBEAQ&url=%2Furl%3Fsa%3Di%26source%3Dimages%26cd%3D%26ve d%3D%26url%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fgiphy.com%252Fgif s%252Freaction-winning-charlie-sheen-x0kMYoT7J31i8%26psig%3DAOvVaw0zrxnFCam9zjsyTe5Wbqf M%26ust%3D1572373404459573&psig=AOvVaw0zrxnFCam9zjsyTe5WbqfM&ust=1572373404459573)

The only thing you've won is my pity

[Redbird 4th & short]

The only thing you've won is my pity

youre too quick for me .. I switched gifs because I found a much better one.

https://media.giphy.com/media/13yzdAlqgvnFpm/giphy.gif
(https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjCzM_oyb_lAhWiT98KHe1XCgkQjRx6BAgBEAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fgiphy.com%2Fgifs%2Fwin-13yzdAlqgvnFpm&psig=AOvVaw0zrxnFCam9zjsyTe5WbqfM&ust=1572373404459573)

[Daytripper]

Here's my take if the playoffs started this week (autobid is the first team listed in each conference).

MVFC (5): North Dakota St, South Dakota St, Northern Iowa, Illinois St, Southern Illinois
CAA (4): James Madison, Stony Brook, Villanova, New Hampshire
Big Sky (4): Sacramento St, Weber St, Montana, Montana St
Southland (2): Central Arkansas, Sam Houston St
OVC (2): Austin Peay, Southeast Missouri St
Big South (2): Kennesaw St, Monmouth
SOCON (1): Furman
NEC (1): Central Connecticut St
Pioneer (1): San Diego
Patriot (1): Lehigh
Independent (1): North Dakota

Last 4 in: New Hampshire, Southeast Missouri St, Monmouth, Southern Illinois
First 4 out: Incarnate Word, Nicholls, Wofford, Albany


San Diego @ North Dakota at #1 North Dakota St
Southeast Missouri St @ Illinois St at #8 Northern Iowa
Sam Houston St @ Montana St at #5 Weber St
Central Connecticut St @ New Hampshire at #4 Sacramento St
Furman @ Kennesaw St at #3 South Dakota St
Lehigh @ Stony Brook at #6 Montana
Austin Peay @ Southern Illinois at #7 Central Arkansas
Monmouth @ Villanova at #2 James Madison

Thanks for recognizing the strength of Sam Houston's playoff resume. While we aren't a shoe-in by any stretch, our four losses have been by a total of 19 points. That, and we have beaten one at-the-time fcs top ten (Nicholls) and one top 20 (UIW). If we can somehow win out and get right at QB, we might surprise a few people.

[bwbear]

Hard pass for me. Maybe for others that's their cup of tea but I would much rather have my team get a shot at a title even if there's a .01% chance they have of winning it. I hate all the **** bowls they have these days in FBS-land. Like I said different strokes for different folks but I'd have little interest in watching my team postseason exhibition to close out the season.... at least in comparison to watching them in a playoff.

Prof, I'm with you. I watch a lot of both levels of football (thanks EPSN Apple TV app for allowing 4 games on a single screen at a time), but the entire "bowl eligible" 6 win thing FBS has is dumb. Most of the bowls lose money, and I think some of the schools lose money going to bowl games.

I think FBS would be better off expanding to a 14 team playoff: Each conference winner and 4 at large bids with the top two seeds getting the first week bye. The 6 round 1 games are played at one of the school's home fields. Whether they bid on that, or base it on some other criteria, whatever. Starting with the round of 8 those are the only bowl games that come in and played at neutral bowl sites.

I'm good with FCS 24 team playoff. Yes, 18-20 of those teams probably have no shot at winning it all, but let that be decided on the field of play instead of in the minds of the fans/committee etc.

[Grizzlies82]

God damn it, y'all have me posting here again. I wouldn't bet on a Big South or OVC team getting a second team in before the Socon. Since the field expanded to 22+ teams in 2010, the Southern Conference has only not gotten two+ teams once. That was 2014, when the second and third place teams didn't have 7 Division one wins.

In fact, if you play in any conference that has ever gotten an at-large bid in the last 10 years, sans the Patriot and MEAC (see 2015 Colgate beating Fordham and the <shrug emoji> that the celebration bowl has done to the MEAC since 2015) you have an 85% chance of getting into the playoffs if you reach 7 Division one wins. Since 2013, still roughly 85%. And yes, that includes 12 game seasons.

Point blank, I think we overestimated quality wins at this stage and put emphasis on things the committee does not, and underemphasize stuff that the committee does, namely politics and prior playoff performances:



There's evidence to suggest that the committee cares a lot about prior playoff performance. Monmouth being boatraced by UNI made them the first 7 D1 win Big South team the next year to miss the playoffs. In 2016 (I think) New hampshire beat only one team with a winning record all year and got in because they're New Hampshire and the committee knows them.
There's also evidence to suggest that the MVFC is really the only conference where getting ~D1 wins is a guarantee at the playoffs (what teams didn't make the playoffs with those wins, were made up numerically by 6 win teams with FBS wins; below's chart doesn't include the teams that made it in without 7 D1 wins)
A lot of times people will look to examples such as McNeese in 2017 and say that, outside of the CAA/MVFC/Big Sky, your record doesn't really matter if you don't have quality win. That fails to consider the fact that MSU was *4th* in the Southland that year. I think it's more accurate to say that the playoff committee will shamelessly plug 4+ in non-MVFC conferences if the bubble is sufficiently weak, but if the bubble is strong, your conference standing is more predictive.
If the bubble is sufficiently weak, anything can happen. I still don't know how Furman got passed for both Lamar and Incarnate Word last year. I still don't know how Samford got into the playoffs in 2016.


If anyone cares about my data, here it is, since 2010 (I have a 2013 number, but it's a little confusing because the committee has been more lenient with 6 d1 wins since then, even though the overall probability hasn't changed:


Total
total
playoff teams
chance
average per year


Big Sky
34
28
82.35%
3.1


Big South
14
13
92.86%
1.4


CAA
45
37
82.22%
4.1


MVFC
33
30
90.91%
3.3


OVC
22
17
77.27%
1.9


Southern
25
22
88.00%
2.4


Southland
22
19
86.36%
2.1



195
166
85.13%
18.4



The higher number of bids for the Big sky and CAA, combined with the lower probability of getting in at 7 D1 wins suggests that the committee won't select the 4th or 5th place CAA/Big Sky over a comparable Southland/OVC/Southern school. They will give the MVFC the bid though. The Big South is the outlier right now because most of their at large teams in the past are no longer in conference.

What I would look for when conducting bracketology:
1) Just assume the MVFC gets 5 in
2) If the Citadel finishes 7-5, I would say they have a strong chance of getting in with P5 victory, so long as the 5 losses aren't to a team below .500. As far as I can tell, no 7-D1 win team with a P5 victory has been passed up for the playoffs (though fourth place big sky teams with G5 victories did)
3) Wofford has a strong chance of getting in at 7-4 because of prior performances.
4) FAMU is prohibited from post-season play. If A&T or SC State finish 8-3 or better (Presuming A&T beats Bethune Cookman), I have a hard time seeing the loser of their game being left out of the field, especially if Elon and Wofford continue winning. This will especially be the case if FAMU finishes undefeated in the MEAC. You may not like it, you may think it's undeserved, but it's a possibility and probability *especially if Wofford wins the Socon*.
5) If any conference gets hosed, it'll probably be the OVC
6) You may also hate it, but the Big South may steal a second bid, even if they don't deserve it in the eyes of many posters here.

In my personal, not-quite-falsifiable-at-this-point opinion, I think the CAA/Big sky will get 4 in at most. The nonsense that's happening at the bottom 2/3 of those leagues is indistinguishible from what's happening among the Southland/OVC/Southern. MVFC teams can feel comfy. Given history, the CAA/Big Sky do not. I would rather be the second or third place Southland/OVC/Southern than the fourth place Big sky/CAA team.


Impressive. Nice job on the data!

I've compiled no data but could have told you the 4th place MVFC is a better bet to get in the playoffs than most any other conferences number 2 team. Most years you'll hear posters exclaim how the 5 & 6 MVFC team is far better than the 8 & 3 team somewhere else. It seems No Dakota State winning that many championships magically enhanced the quality of every team in that conference, at least in the minds of their conference foes.

[Reign of Terrier]

Impressive. Nice job on the data!

I've compiled no data but could have told you the 4th place MVFC is a better bet to get in the playoffs than most any other conferences number 2 team. Most years you'll hear posters exclaim how the 5 & 6 MVFC team is far better than the 8 & 3 team somewhere else. It seems No Dakota State winning that many championships magically enhanced the quality of every team in that conference, at least in the minds of their conference foes.I am skeptical that the fifth best MVFC team is that much better, but given how the committee has acted in the past, I think it's almost a lock, looking at how the last month of the season plays. Sixth is also possible, but that's more uncharted territory.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[Grizzlies82]

I am skeptical that the fifth best MVFC team is that much better, but given how the committee has acted in the past, I think it's almost a lock, looking at how the last month of the season plays. Sixth is also possible, but that's more uncharted territory.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

:)
Six isn't impossible. However, I doubt they give the MVFC more than four of the eight seeds.

[NY Crusader 2010]

It’s not hard to make the playoffs as it is. Bowl games for non playoff teams would be participation trophies.

That's kind of the point. Let the clear also-rans have their own postseason party instead of further bloating the championship tournament. If you look at the brackets in Men's Basketball, Hockey, Baseball and Lacrosse, the worst at-large teams are much stronger relative to the field than the "last teams in" in a 24-team FCS field. At-large bids (beyond the NCAA requirement) should be for schools that have a punchers chance at competing for a national championship. I see no issue with "participation trophy" postseason bowl games -- heck they have them at the high school level for teams that don't make states/districts but had good seasons. No one has a problem with 18-14 Kentucky going to the NIT or 20-12 Santa Clara going to the CBI. Why should anyone have a problem with Richmond playing VMI a week after Thanksgiving on the football field this year?

[skinny_uncle]

Just for comparison.

http://nobowls.com/

[Reign of Terrier]

It’s not hard to make the playoffs as it is. Bowl games for non playoff teams would be participation trophies.

1) Bowls at this level are a no go because they would almost certainly be money-losers. The only way "bowls" would work is if regionally close teams (and I mean really close) played each other.

2) Having said that, bowl games are underrated. As a fan of a team that perennially gets stopped short while watching a single team seemingly monopolize the championships, it leaves a bad taste in my mouth when we exit the playoffs. All the progress and things to be proud of for the season seem all for not. The playoffs are a great for the James Madison's and North Dakota States, and for the underdog teams in one-bid leagues, but if you're in that weird second tier of the FCS (Wofford, Jacksonville State, the CAA that isn't JMU, the Big sky that isn't EWU) I can see why the playoffs are tiresome.

[Professor Chaos]

As a fan of a team that perennially gets stopped short while watching a single team seemingly monopolize the championships, it leaves a bad taste in my mouth when we exit the playoffs. All the progress and things to be proud of for the season seem all for not. The playoffs are a great for the James Madison's and North Dakota States, and for the underdog teams in one-bid leagues, but if you're in that weird second tier of the FCS (Wofford, Jacksonville State, the CAA that isn't JMU, the Big sky that isn't EWU) I can see why the playoffs are tiresome.
Did you feel the same way 10 years ago?

[MR. CHICKEN]

1) Bowls at this level are a no go because they would almost certainly be money-losers. The only way "bowls" would work is if regionally close teams (and I mean really close) played each other.

2) Having said that, bowl games are underrated. As a fan of a team that perennially gets stopped short while watching a single team seemingly monopolize the championships, it leaves a bad taste in my mouth when we exit the playoffs. All the progress and things to be proud of for the season seem all for not. The playoffs are a great for the James Madison's and North Dakota States, and for the underdog teams in one-bid leagues, but if you're in that weird second tier of the FCS (Wofford, Jacksonville State, the CAA that isn't JMU, the Big sky that isn't EWU) I can see why the playoffs are tiresome.


....DISAPPOINTIN'.....YAH......NOT TIRESOME.......BETTERAH READ SOME GOHENS THREADS......FO' OURAH PLAY-OFF DROUGHT....KEEPS PECKERHEADS UP @ NIGHT........BRAWK!

[NY Crusader 2010]

1) Bowls at this level are a no go because they would almost certainly be money-losers. The only way "bowls" would work is if regionally close teams (and I mean really close) played each other.

2) Having said that, bowl games are underrated. As a fan of a team that perennially gets stopped short while watching a single team seemingly monopolize the championships, it leaves a bad taste in my mouth when we exit the playoffs. All the progress and things to be proud of for the season seem all for not. The playoffs are a great for the James Madison's and North Dakota States, and for the underdog teams in one-bid leagues, but if you're in that weird second tier of the FCS (Wofford, Jacksonville State, the CAA that isn't JMU, the Big sky that isn't EWU) I can see why the playoffs are tiresome.

Money-losers compared to what? The cash cows that are the FCS regular season and playoff brackets?

I guess you could make the argument that the FCS playoffs are profitable for the colleges involved since the NCAA pays for all travel and lodging while the schools DO get a cut of the revenue. So there's that.

And yes, I think it would be in everyone's best interest for these "bowl" games to be highly regional (kind of like the playoffs already are to a very large extent).

I might add that there ARE bowl games at the Division III level involving teams that miss the NCAA tournament -- at least there were in 2009 when I last paid attention to the outcome of one (Hartwick-SUNY Brockport). And prior to securing auto-bids the NEC and Pioneer played each other in a bowl game. Last one I recall was Butler v. CCSU in maybe 2010.

[Reign of Terrier]

Did you feel the same way 10 years ago?

No. But that was before indefinite Bison domination and Wofford had only made the playoffs 3 times circa 2009. I stopped being pleased with just getting there in 2012.

We're in a unique phase in FCS history because a lot of the stalwart playoff teams aren't winning national titles like they used to, and there's less unpredictability at the top of the conferences. We went from being a subdivision where 8-15 teams may go on a run from 3-5 conferences to it being the same 3-5 teams (NDSU, JMU, SDSU, EWU, Sam Houston) + another team when accounting for variation and the bracket (Maine last year, YSU in 2016, etc).

I'll feel like Wofford's accomplished something if we get back to the semifinal, just because the quarterfinal has been barrier we can't get past, but I got more satisfaction from beating the Citadel/Furman (which were de facto socon championship games) or Montana in the first/second round of the playoffs than getting beat by only 7 at North Dakota State or UNI in 2012.

[Reign of Terrier]

Money-losers compared to what? The cash cows that are the FCS regular season and playoff brackets?

I guess you could make the argument that the FCS playoffs are profitable for the colleges involved since the NCAA pays for all travel and lodging while the schools DO get a cut of the revenue. So there's that.

And yes, I think it would be in everyone's best interest for these "bowl" games to be highly regional (kind of like the playoffs already are to a very large extent).

I might add that there ARE bowl games at the Division III level involving teams that miss the NCAA tournament -- at least there were in 2009 when I last attended one (Hartwick-SUNY Brockport). And prior to securing auto-bids the NEC and Pioneer played each other in a bowl game. Last one I recall was Butler v. CCSU in maybe 2010.

The NCAA subsidizes the FCS playoffs. Bowl games for FBS, if I'm not mistaken are not NCAA-sponsored (if that's the word?) events. They make their money with TV deals, but there is no NCAA-sanctioned FBS champion. the MEAC and SWAC can do a bowl game because there's a target audience (the Celebration bowl had better rating than the FCS championship last year, I think). There isn't really for third place teams in random FCS conferences.

[NY Crusader 2010]

NCAA subsidizes the FCS playoffs (although don't schools "bid" for home sites?), correct and you are right the FBS bowls make their money via naming rights, TV deals and sponsor-ships.

FCS "bowls" would not be a profit-generator, nor would any major corporation be swooping in to sponsor a bowl game between Monmouth and Georgetown. But if FCS football existed solely to turn a profit, wouldn't this level not exist period? And as I stated, somehow a bowl game came to fruition for our friends in the Pioneer and NEC as well as Division III. Oh, and high school.

[Professor Chaos]

No. But that was before indefinite Bison domination and Wofford had only made the playoffs 3 times circa 2009. I stopped being pleased with just getting there in 2012.

We're in a unique phase in FCS history because a lot of the stalwart playoff teams aren't winning national titles like they used to, and there's less unpredictability at the top of the conferences. We went from being a subdivision where 8-15 teams may go on a run from 3-5 conferences to it being the same 3-5 teams (NDSU, JMU, SDSU, EWU, Sam Houston) + another team when accounting for variation and the bracket (Maine last year, YSU in 2016, etc).

I'll feel like Wofford's accomplished something if we get back to the semifinal, just because the quarterfinal has been barrier we can't get past, but I got more satisfaction from beating the Citadel/Furman (which were de facto socon championship games) or Montana in the first/second round of the playoffs than getting beat by only 7 at North Dakota State or UNI in 2012.
What I'm getting at was Wofford wasn't winning titles 10 years ago either when you enjoyed the playoff experience more.

Winning a bowl game is easy. Winning 2 or 3 or 4 playoffs games gets exponentially harder with each game. I think it's too bad that you feel that seasons are wasted when they don't end in championships. It's tough for me to empathize but I still do remember NDSU's playoff run in 2010 that ended on a snowy red field in Cheney, Washington in the quarterfinals. My excitement level for Bison football was amped up tenfold after that season because that was such a fun and unexpected playoff run.

Maybe you're wired differently than me but if my team went on a 9 game win streak to finish as 9-2 conference champs and went on to play and beat another 9-2 conference champ in a bowl game I wouldn't find that nearly as fulfilling as going to the playoffs and watching them go on a run even if it ended in the quarters at the hands of a better team. I prefer closure... you play until you lose or your the last team standing. No thank you to getting a pat on the head for being XYZ Bowl "Champions" while 33 other champions get their pats and argue about who's trophy is best. I'll take 2019 quarterfinalist instead and look forward to seeing my team hopefully make a deeper run the next year.

[Ndrsports1132]

Totally agree with you. 24 teams is a good number... I'm not doing the research, but if you look back it seems that most (if not every year) a Top 8 team goes down to an unranked team..how is this possible if those 8 seeded teams are the only ones to have a chance to win? While I'm all for quality football, it's still a game and like this site says "any given saturday" let the boys/girls play, create some memories, yeah, there may only be 3-4 teams favored to win each year, but does that mean we squelch the dreams of others? Give them a shot...it's what this country was founded on....

[Reign of Terrier]

What I'm getting at was Wofford wasn't winning titles 10 years ago either when you enjoyed the playoff experience more.

Winning a bowl game is easy. Winning 2 or 3 or 4 playoffs games gets exponentially harder with each game. I think it's too bad that you feel that seasons are wasted when they don't end in championships. It's tough for me to empathize but I still do remember NDSU's playoff run in 2010 that ended on a snowy red field in Cheney, Washington in the quarterfinals. My excitement level for Bison football was amped up tenfold after that season because that was such a fun and unexpected playoff run.

Maybe you're wired differently than me but if my team went on a 9 game win streak to finish as 9-2 conference champs and went on to play and beat another 9-2 conference champ in a bowl game I wouldn't find that nearly as fulfilling as going to the playoffs and watching them go on a run even if it ended in the quarters at the hands of a better team. I prefer closure... you play until you lose or your the last team standing. No thank you to getting a pat on the head for being XYZ Bowl "Champions" while 33 other champions get their pats and argue about who's trophy is best. I'll take 2019 quarterfinalist instead and look forward to seeing my team hopefully make a deeper run the next year.See and this is why NDSU fans do not know how good they have it.

12 years ago, Wofford and 8-12 other teams had a legitimate shot at the national title. We beat App State in 2007. We lost to number 1 seed JMU in the first round in 2008, and Montana, the team we beat in 2007 made the title game.

There was easily more parity. Now, there's pretty much none outside of 5 programs.

Of course you felt elated after making the quarterfinals. Your team had never made the playoffs before at the FCS level. The Bison fan experience went from playoff newb to King almost literally overnight. There's not much of a valley.

But for the rest of us who aren't used to making long playoff runs, it's exhausting. It used to be that you win 3 games and you're in the title, now if you don't have a seed you can win 3 games and just then be considered a top 4 team. Heck, even the NFL only has a playoff where 3 games gets you to the league title at worst.

The playoffs are really fun if you're always winning them. But if you're not, they can be really stressful. My FBS football fans seem to enjoy the game more because their expectations aren't as high. Rank order standing doesn't really matter because outside of the top 4, teams just want to win their next one.


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[Professor Chaos]

See and this is why NDSU fans do not know how good they have it.

12 years ago, Wofford and 8-12 other teams had a legitimate shot at the national title. We beat App State in 2007. We lost to number 1 seed JMU in the first round in 2008, and Montana, the team we beat in 2007 made the title game.

There was easily more parity. Now, there's pretty much none outside of 5 programs.

Of course you felt elated after making the quarterfinals. Your team had never made the playoffs before at the FCS level. The Bison fan experience went from playoff newb to King almost literally overnight. There's not much of a valley.

But for the rest of us who aren't used to making long playoff runs, it's exhausting. It used to be that you win 3 games and you're in the title, now if you don't have a seed you can win 3 games and just then be considered a top 4 team. Heck, even the NFL only has a playoff where 3 games gets you to the league title at worst.

The playoffs are really fun if you're always winning them. But if you're not, they can be really stressful. My FBS football fans seem to enjoy the game more because their expectations aren't as high. Rank order standing doesn't really matter because outside of the top 4, teams just want to win their next one.


Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
I don't see playoff stress being a bad thing at all but maybe that's because I can't right now. Oh well, I guess that's a good problem to have.

[Reign of Terrier]

I don't see playoff stress being a bad thing at all but maybe that's because I can't right now. Oh well, I guess that's a good problem to have.That's because it's only a problem to those of us not used to winning national titles xlolx

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[Derby City Duke]

NCAA subsidizes the FCS playoffs (although don't schools "bid" for home sites?), correct and you are right the FBS bowls make their money via naming rights, TV deals and sponsor-ships.

FCS "bowls" would not be a profit-generator, nor would any major corporation be swooping in to sponsor a bowl game between Monmouth and Georgetown. But if FCS football existed solely to turn a profit, wouldn't this level not exist period? And as I stated, somehow a bowl game came to fruition for our friends in the Pioneer and NEC as well as Division III. Oh, and high school.

Schools interested in hosting 1st round games all submit bids to the NCAA -- there are floors to the bidding so the school may or may not make money on the 1st round games. Given that the first 8 games are on Thanksgiving weekend, attendance usually is down from season averages, put a further damper on possible profit.

This is an extract from the 2019-20 Pre-Championship Manual regarding selecting host sites for games:

Regarding first-round, second-round, quarterfinal and semifinal sites, in addition to the criteria listed in Bylaw 31.1.3.2.1, theNCAA Division I Football Championship Committee shall consider the following additional criteria when selecting playoff sites:

1. The committee will consider previous crowd-control measures and crowd behavior of the prospective host institution(regardless of seeding).

2. Prospective host institutions must submit the following minimum financial guarantees, which shall be 75% of theestimated net receipts as submitted on the proposed budget:

First round – $30,000
Second round – $40,000
Quarterfinals – $50,000
Semifinals – $60,000

3. If the minimum financial guarantees are met, the committee will award the playoff sites to the higher-seeded teams.

----------------

Supposing NDSU and JMU are seeded 1, 2. As I read this, each school would have to submit bids for 3 rounds, guaranteeing a minimum of $150,000 to the NCAA.

Hard for it to be a money-maker for schools

In 2014, JMU bid just over $200K to ensure hosting a 1st round game (trying to outbid Liberty and YSU); backlash for not bidding aggressively enough in 2011 and getting sent out to EKU for the 1st round was loud and long. (Side note: JMU beat EKU then got sent to Fargo where NDSU started their 22 game FCS playoff winning streak that was ended in 2016 by...JMU)

[BadlandsGrizFan]

1) Bowls at this level are a no go because they would almost certainly be money-losers. The only way "bowls" would work is if regionally close teams (and I mean really close) played each other.

2) Having said that, bowl games are underrated. As a fan of a team that perennially gets stopped short while watching a single team seemingly monopolize the championships, it leaves a bad taste in my mouth when we exit the playoffs. All the progress and things to be proud of for the season seem all for not. The playoffs are a great for the James Madison's and North Dakota States, and for the underdog teams in one-bid leagues, but if you're in that weird second tier of the FCS (Wofford, Jacksonville State, the CAA that isn't JMU, the Big sky that isn't EWU) I can see why the playoffs are tiresome.

So youve never been to Missoula I see.

[HootyHoo]

I think the Bison have been great for FCS football. They have risen the standards that other programs can strive to achieve. It's not impossible to beat them. James Madison has done it. In the long run, The Bison dynasty will birth new powerhouses who aren't afraid of ambition.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

I think the Bison have been great for FCS football. They have risen the standards that other programs can strive to achieve. It's not impossible to beat them. James Madison has done it. In the long run, The Bison dynasty will birth new powerhouses who aren't afraid of ambition.

It hasn't happened so far and we're basically 4-5 years into the NDSU dynasty. Simply not enough schools (like 98% of them) are willing emphasize FCS football to the level NDSU has. JMU is the only school that seems to be willing to challenge the Bison in an arms race.

[NY Crusader 2010]

It hasn't happened so far and we're basically 4-5 years into the NDSU dynasty. Simply not enough schools are willing emphasis FCS football to the level NDSU has. JMU is the only school that seems to be willing to challenge the Bison in an arms race.

The BIG TEN has not yet found a way to beat NDSU. Not an FCS problem. Their teams and fans have very much been a positive for our level.

[Reign of Terrier]

[/B][/I]

So youve never been to Missoula I see.Like it or not EWU has been the Big Sky flagship for the last decade

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[Bison Fan in NW MN]

It hasn't happened so far and we're basically 4-5 years into the NDSU dynasty. Simply not enough schools (like 98% of them) are willing emphasize FCS football to the level NDSU has. JMU is the only school that seems to be willing to challenge the Bison in an arms race.


SDSU is right there. They have a beautiful stadium and a very nice IPF right beside the stadium. No reason for SDSU not to be a top 5 team every year.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

SDSU is right there. They have a beautiful stadium and a very nice IPF right beside the stadium. No reason for SDSU not to be a top 5 team every year.

SDSU has a very good program but they've yet to make it to Frisco or really seriously challenge for a title. There's quite a few teams in SDSU's relm that have nice facilities and consistent success without getting over the hump.

[bwbear]

Are states without a flagship FBS team at an advantage for FCS success?

For example, in Arkansas, it is all about the Razorbacks. And they suck. Minus the Petrino years, they've have struggled to get to a bowl game. But, because that are the "flagship" university in the state (but not the only FBS team), they get an overwhelming majority of the attention. Young boys grow up hearing about the Hogs. They see them on TV. If they become any type of a player, they want to go play for U of A. UCA had someone de-commit to go walk-on at UofA instead of taking a scholarship here. Why? Because they get that much attention.

We're not a talent rich state to begin with. But what talent does exist, all they hear about is UofA. UCA is gaining ground in the media due to our improvement at the FCS level, but it is always an "also ran" news story.

I'm not sure what North Dakota/South Dakota is like, but do you find your star high school players staying to play or are they going to any FBS offers they get? To me, recruiting is important. If you are keeping your in-state talent, you are at an advantage.

Just curious what those states are like compared to Arkansas' situation.

[Grizzlies82]

Are states without a flagship FBS team at an advantage for FCS success?

For example, in Arkansas, it is all about the Razorbacks. And they suck. Minus the Petrino years, they've have struggled to get to a bowl game. But, because that are the "flagship" university in the state (but not the only FBS team), they get an overwhelming majority of the attention. Young boys grow up hearing about the Hogs. They see them on TV. If they become any type of a player, they want to go play for U of A. UCA had someone de-commit to go walk-on at UofA instead of taking a scholarship here. Why? Because they get that much attention.

We're not a talent rich state to begin with. But what talent does exist, all they hear about is UofA. UCA is gaining ground in the media due to our improvement at the FCS level, but it is always an "also ran" news story.

I'm not sure what North Dakota/South Dakota is like, but do you find your star high school players staying to play or are they going to any FBS offers they get? To me, recruiting is important. If you are keeping your in-state talent, you are at an advantage.

Just curious what those states are like compared to Arkansas' situation.


bwbear, Can't speak for the Dakotas but imagine it is similar to the situation in Montana. Typically we lose the most elite athlete in the state to bigger programs. Just off the top of my head kids have gone off to the Univ of Washington, Oregon State, Boise St, Iowa, and Oklahoma.

The good news is most Montana high school kids are under the radar rarely getting attention from the bigger schools. Consequently Montana & MT State get some great football players who may deserve to be playing elsewhere. Though keep in mind we are a small state with a population barely over 1 million. So it is not a huge pool to recruit a full team, yet many of the Grizzlies and bobcats finest players have been home grown kids. Once in awhile a kid with questionable intelligence might sign on with another FCS school but thankfully most young men in Montana are smarter than that.

[ST_Lawson]

Are states without a flagship FBS team at an advantage for FCS success?

For example, in Arkansas, it is all about the Razorbacks. And they suck. Minus the Petrino years, they've have struggled to get to a bowl game. But, because that are the "flagship" university in the state (but not the only FBS team), they get an overwhelming majority of the attention. Young boys grow up hearing about the Hogs. They see them on TV. If they become any type of a player, they want to go play for U of A. UCA had someone de-commit to go walk-on at UofA instead of taking a scholarship here. Why? Because they get that much attention.

We're not a talent rich state to begin with. But what talent does exist, all they hear about is UofA. UCA is gaining ground in the media due to our improvement at the FCS level, but it is always an "also ran" news story.

I'm not sure what North Dakota/South Dakota is like, but do you find your star high school players staying to play or are they going to any FBS offers they get? To me, recruiting is important. If you are keeping your in-state talent, you are at an advantage.

Just curious what those states are like compared to Arkansas' situation.

Just did a quick check of the class of 2019 from Illinois, anyone with any stars according to Rivals. Of those 83 kids, here's the top schools:
Northern Illinois - 11
Western Michigan - 7
Illinois - 5
Iowa - 5
Air Force - 4
Cincinnati - 3
Eastern Michigan - 3
Kent State - 3
Northwestern - 3
Also, NDSU, SDSU, EIU, UT-Martin, and Howard each got 1 from the list.

Obviously the majority of our roster is from our state, like many FCS schools, but most of our local HS players are going Big 10 if they're good enough, mostly MAC West schools if they're a step down, and then to other FCS programs. We're not beating out any other DI schools for recruiting these days.
Illinois kids are, for the most part, growing up as Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, and Mizzou fans. Maybe NIU if they happened to be at the right age when NIU was really good, but mostly it's the Big 10 and other fairly close good teams.

The issue with Illinois is that the Chicago area gets a ton of recruiting attention from everyone. We pull a few from there, sure, but the kids we're looking at are more likely to walk-on with NIU or get picked up by NDSU or SDSU (NDSU has 11 Illinois kids on their roster this year...nearly all from the Chicago area).

[that guy]

Are states without a flagship FBS team at an advantage for FCS success?

For example, in Arkansas, it is all about the Razorbacks. And they suck. Minus the Petrino years, they've have struggled to get to a bowl game. But, because that are the "flagship" university in the state (but not the only FBS team), they get an overwhelming majority of the attention. Young boys grow up hearing about the Hogs. They see them on TV. If they become any type of a player, they want to go play for U of A. UCA had someone de-commit to go walk-on at UofA instead of taking a scholarship here. Why? Because they get that much attention.

We're not a talent rich state to begin with. But what talent does exist, all they hear about is UofA. UCA is gaining ground in the media due to our improvement at the FCS level, but it is always an "also ran" news story.

I'm not sure what North Dakota/South Dakota is like, but do you find your star high school players staying to play or are they going to any FBS offers they get? To me, recruiting is important. If you are keeping your in-state talent, you are at an advantage.

Just curious what those states are like compared to Arkansas' situation.
NDSU has turned nine man football in state players into all conference players. They have gotten the best in ND and have lost some of them to FBS. They do a good job of recruiting form ND to Florida.

[Sader87]

Just did a quick check of the class of 2019 from Illinois, anyone with any stars according to Rivals. Of those 83 kids, here's the top schools:
Northern Illinois - 11
Western Michigan - 7see
Illinois - 5
Iowa - 5
Air Force - 4
Cincinnati - 3
Eastern Michigan - 3
Kent State - 3
Northwestern - 3
Also, NDSU, SDSU, EIU, UT-Martin, and Howard each got 1 from the list.

Obviously the majority of our roster is from our state, like many FCS schools, but most of our local HS players are going Big 10 if they're good enough, mostly MAC West schools if they're a step down, and then to other FCS programs. We're not beating out any other DI schools for recruiting these days.
Illinois kids are, for the most part, growing up as Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, and Mizzou fans. Maybe NIU if they happened to be at the right age when NIU was really good, but mostly it's the Big 10 and other fairly close good teams.

The issue with Illinois is that the Chicago area gets a ton of recruiting attention from everyone. We pull a few from there, sure, but the kids we're looking at are more likely to walk-on with NIU or get picked up by NDSU or SDSU (NDSU has 11 Illinois kids on their roster this year...nearly all from the Chicago area).

Has to be tough on non-FBS Illinois schools....just Holy Cross alone has 8 guys from the Land of Lincoln on their roster. A few are key starters. One HC Illinois product was with the Chiefs last year, our best QB this Century was from Illinois too.

Multiply HC with other PL and Ivy schools and I'm sure a lot of FCS talent in Illinois has headed East over the years.

[uni88]

Are states without a flagship FBS team at an advantage for FCS success?

For example, in Arkansas, it is all about the Razorbacks. And they suck. Minus the Petrino years, they've have struggled to get to a bowl game. But, because that are the "flagship" university in the state (but not the only FBS team), they get an overwhelming majority of the attention. Young boys grow up hearing about the Hogs. They see them on TV. If they become any type of a player, they want to go play for U of A. UCA had someone de-commit to go walk-on at UofA instead of taking a scholarship here. Why? Because they get that much attention.

We're not a talent rich state to begin with. But what talent does exist, all they hear about is UofA. UCA is gaining ground in the media due to our improvement at the FCS level, but it is always an "also ran" news story.

I'm not sure what North Dakota/South Dakota is like, but do you find your star high school players staying to play or are they going to any FBS offers they get? To me, recruiting is important. If you are keeping your in-state talent, you are at an advantage.

Just curious what those states are like compared to Arkansas' situation.

I think so but I think it varies by state and isn't just about the players. They tend to be lower population states so they don't have as many top players but they don't have as much competition for the ones they do have. They also have a fanbase that isn't made up of just alumni and alumni families. If you're a plumber, factory worker or farmer in Iowa who never went to college or went to a non-D1 school, you're much more likely to be an Iowa or Iowa State fan than a UNI fan. In the Dakotas, Montana and Delaware that "casual fan" is more likely to be a fan of the FCS school so they're going to have an easier time raising funds, filling their stadium, selling their merchandise, etc. That energy and money helps with recruiting as well.

The FCS Attendance Averages Down Once Again in 2018 (https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?229740-FCS-Attendance-Averages-Down-Once-Again-in-2018&p=2776798&highlight=affinity#post2776798) thread had a good discussion on this.

[McNeese72]

Are states without a flagship FBS team at an advantage for FCS success?

For example, in Arkansas, it is all about the Razorbacks. And they suck. Minus the Petrino years, they've have struggled to get to a bowl game. But, because that are the "flagship" university in the state (but not the only FBS team), they get an overwhelming majority of the attention. Young boys grow up hearing about the Hogs. They see them on TV. If they become any type of a player, they want to go play for U of A. UCA had someone de-commit to go walk-on at UofA instead of taking a scholarship here. Why? Because they get that much attention.

We're not a talent rich state to begin with. But what talent does exist, all they hear about is UofA. UCA is gaining ground in the media due to our improvement at the FCS level, but it is always an "also ran" news story.

I'm not sure what North Dakota/South Dakota is like, but do you find your star high school players staying to play or are they going to any FBS offers they get? To me, recruiting is important. If you are keeping your in-state talent, you are at an advantage.

Just curious what those states are like compared to Arkansas' situation.

Try recruiting in Louisiana and Texas with all the FBS schools in both states like McNeese does.

Doc

[JayJ79]

mention of the Wofford at UNI playoff game just reminds me of the craziest play I've ever witnessed.

[I Bleed Purple]

Weber State has 3 FBS schools within a 75 mile radius or less than 90 minutes drive.

It's a disadvantage.

[Professor Chaos]

It hasn't happened so far and we're basically 4-5 years into the NDSU dynasty. Simply not enough schools (like 98% of them) are willing emphasize FCS football to the level NDSU has. JMU is the only school that seems to be willing to challenge the Bison in an arms race.
JMU spends nearly twice as much on football as NDSU does.

JMU ($10.1 in football expenses in 2017): http://cafidatabase.knightcommission.org/fcs/james-madison-university#!quicktabs-tab-institution_data-2

NDSU ($5.3M in football expenses in 2017): http://cafidatabase.knightcommission.org/fcs/north-dakota-state-university#!quicktabs-tab-institution_data-2

In fact if you look at that CAFI database there are plenty of FCS schools that spend more on football than NDSU does. Just a few that I found were Delaware, Montana, Montana St, Stony Brook, and Jacksonville St and I'm sure I could find more if I kept searching.

[WileECoyote06]

Weber State has 3 FBS schools within a 75 mile radius or less than 90 minutes drive.

It's a disadvantage.

I'll take your 3 FBS schools within a 90 minute drive and raise you four ACC schools, one AAC school and three FCS schools within a 90 minute drive.

xdrunkyx

[PaladinFan]

I'll take your 3 FBS schools within a 90 minute drive and raise you four ACC schools, one AAC school and three FCS schools within a 90 minute drive.

xdrunkyx

Oh, let's not even start this game. The fans of southern FCS schools are going to win that one in a walkaway.

[JayJ79]

JMU spends nearly twice as much on football as NDSU does.

JMU ($10.1 in football expenses in 2017): http://cafidatabase.knightcommission.org/fcs/james-madison-university#!quicktabs-tab-institution_data-2

NDSU ($5.3M in football expenses in 2017): http://cafidatabase.knightcommission.org/fcs/north-dakota-state-university#!quicktabs-tab-institution_data-2

In fact if you look at that CAFI database there are plenty of FCS schools that spend more on football than NDSU does. Just a few that I found were Delaware, Montana, Montana St, Stony Brook, and Jacksonville St and I'm sure I could find more if I kept searching.
First off, I think such financial reports should be taken with a grain of salt. I suspect there are various methods of accounting when it comes to the finances for colleges and their athletic departments that it is really difficult to do comparisons between programs with any degree of accuracy, especially when trying to compare spending for an individual sport.

Second, schools with higher tuition rates (and room/board/etc.) will report higher spending than schools with lower tuition/etc. rates. Does NDSU have lower tuition rates than the other schools mentioned?

Third, this isn't pro sports (at least not openly.... yet), where teams can entice better players with ridiculously high salaries. So the amount spent isn't as influential as it is with a pro team.

[mvfcfan]

People are forgetting that NDSU also has a recruiting advantage in Minnesota, not just North Dakota. The Goofers usually suck. So do you want to win titles in your career or suck for 3-4 years? Pretty easy choice especially with the media coverage NDSU gets anyways.

[Professor Chaos]

First off, I think such financial reports should be taken with a grain of salt. I suspect there are various methods of accounting when it comes to the finances for colleges and their athletic departments that it is really difficult to do comparisons between programs with any degree of accuracy, especially when trying to compare spending for an individual sport.

Second, schools with higher tuition rates (and room/board/etc.) will report higher spending than schools with lower tuition/etc. rates. Does NDSU have lower tuition rates than the other schools mentioned?

Third, this isn't pro sports (at least not openly.... yet), where teams can entice better players with ridiculously high salaries. So the amount spent isn't as influential as it is with a pro team.
In 2017 in-state tuition at JMU was $10,752 and out of state was $28,296. At NDSU in-state was $9,414 and out of state was $13,393. So it's significant for out of state recruits but say you had 50 of 63 schollies going to out of state guys that difference still only accounts for about $650K difference.

My point is LehighTUOwl about how NDSU has started an "arms race" that only JMU can keep up with is a fallacy. NDSU doesn't win because they spend the most money, they win because of the formula and culture within the program that they've built. It definitely can't be replicated just by spending money on it.


People are forgetting that NDSU also has a recruiting advantage in Minnesota, not just North Dakota. The Goofers usually suck. So do you want to win titles in your career or suck for 3-4 years? Pretty easy choice especially with the media coverage NDSU gets anyways.
Tim Brewsters inept leadership and local recruiting strategy at Minnesota from '07-'10 definitely had a direct positive correlation with NDSU's rise. They got some recruits out if the twin cities metro that absolutely should've been recruited, even if just as PWOs, at the UofM (the names probably won't mean much to non-NDSU fans but guys like Billy Turner, Marcus Williams, Grant Olson, and Zach Vraa). The Bison have also taken advantage of nearby states like Wisconsin and Nebraska that have nothing in between the B1G school in the state and D2/D3.

That said NDSU isn't the only school hitting those states along with the Minnesota twin cities area hard. All the Dakota schools and UNI hit it hard and make it competitive. But NDSU wins a lot more FCS vs FCS recruiting battles than they lose in those places which I'm sure is attributable to their ridiculous success on the field over the last few years.

[BEAR]

Here's an interactive map of all football playing schools in the NCAA. The South looks crowded. xlolx (not sure if it is up to date)

http://ncaasavant.com/apps/map.php?div=&conf=

[ST_Lawson]

Here's an interactive map of all football playing schools in the NCAA. The South looks crowded. xlolx (not sure if it is up to date)

http://ncaasavant.com/apps/map.php?div=&conf=

Up to date map from the NCAA: https://public.tableau.com/shared/Q2YWNG5BR
Includes all DI Football-playing schools (FBS and FCS)
In case you have trouble with the interactive map, here's a static image: https://i.imgur.com/MNfR6AK.png

Really though, it's practically a population density map: https://www.census.gov/dmd/www/pdf/512popdn.pdf
Relevant XKCD: https://xkcd.com/1138/

[BEAR]

Up to date map from the NCAA: https://public.tableau.com/shared/Q2YWNG5BR
Includes all DI Football-playing schools (FBS and FCS)
In case you have trouble with the interactive map, here's a static image: https://i.imgur.com/MNfR6AK.png

Really though, it's practically a population density map: https://www.census.gov/dmd/www/pdf/512popdn.pdf
Relevant XKCD: https://xkcd.com/1138/

Nice. thanks. That North-central-western area looks kinda sparse. xlolx I just hate it when we recruit and kids choose the SEC schools, then the top teir FBS, then the middle FBS, then the upper lower FBS before many of them look at an FCS. Plus all the FCS competition for players in our area. Ugh. We've been expanding our recruiting to Florida because while we've won a ton of games with our past recruiting of Texas and Louisiana, we've not gotten over that hump to win multiple playoff games or be in contention for a championship game. It's paying off for our depth at positions so maybe soon us fans can see some results in the post season.

[clenz]

Nice. thanks. That North-central-western area looks kinda sparse. xlolx I just hate it when we recruit and kids choose the SEC schools, then the top teir FBS, then the middle FBS, then the upper lower FBS before many of them look at an FCS. Plus all the FCS competition for players in our area. Ugh. We've been expanding our recruiting to Florida because while we've won a ton of games with our past recruiting of Texas and Louisiana, we've not gotten over that hump to win multiple playoff games or be in contention for a championship game. It's paying off for our depth at positions so maybe soon us fans can see some results in the post season.
Now you know why we hate regionalization so ****ing much come playoff time

We already know exactly who we will be forced to play in every round before it starts

MVFC unseeded team is going to NDSU and/or SDSU in round 2 after playing SLC in round 1 - especially if you are UNI, UND, WIU

No other others

[ST_Lawson]

Nice. thanks. That North-central-western area looks kinda sparse. xlolx I just hate it when we recruit and kids choose the SEC schools, then the top teir FBS, then the middle FBS, then the upper lower FBS before many of them look at an FCS. Plus all the FCS competition for players in our area. Ugh. We've been expanding our recruiting to Florida because while we've won a ton of games with our past recruiting of Texas and Louisiana, we've not gotten over that hump to win multiple playoff games or be in contention for a championship game. It's paying off for our depth at positions so maybe soon us fans can see some results in the post season.

Yeah, it seems like everyone has to find some kind of recruiting "niche"...a location that is somewhat under-recruited by some of the other FCS schools. Nobody at our level has the budget to recruit everywhere like the big FBS teams do, but finding a spot that doesn't get as much love from other FCS teams means that you can sometimes find overlooked kids. Kids who aren't quite P5 level but maybe get missed by most of the G5s and FCS teams.

We seemed to have some success with it for a few years with Arizona JUCO transfers (during the Bob Nielson @ WIU era, got some real solid defensive players...DBs and LBs mostly...and our best RB in the last decade, JC Baker). Lately though, it just seems like we've been trying to hit up our region and the nearby big cities (Chicago, Minneapolis, KC, STL, Indy)...obviously that doesn't appear to be working all that well for us.

[BEAR]

Yeah, it seems like everyone has to find some kind of recruiting "niche"...a location that is somewhat under-recruited by some of the other FCS schools. Nobody at our level has the budget to recruit everywhere like the big FBS teams do, but finding a spot that doesn't get as much love from other FCS teams means that you can sometimes find overlooked kids. Kids who aren't quite P5 level but maybe get missed by most of the G5s and FCS teams.

We seemed to have some success with it for a few years with Arizona JUCO transfers (during the Bob Nielson @ WIU era, got some real solid defensive players...DBs and LBs mostly...and our best RB in the last decade, JC Baker). Lately though, it just seems like we've been trying to hit up our region and the nearby big cities (Chicago, Minneapolis, KC, STL, Indy)...obviously that doesn't appear to be working all that well for us.

That's the thing. Money. UCA makes a couple hundred thousand in ticket sales every year if I recall. That doesn't go very far. Plus while we have increased our giving to athletics, alleged Bear fans are typically not big givers and tend to support the team in NW Arkansas first. It's just how it is. They have the nicest facilities, own the media, and are part of one of the best football conferences in the nation. WE can't compete with that. But I'm glad we're making a little progress.

[JacksFan40]

People are forgetting that NDSU also has a recruiting advantage in Minnesota, not just North Dakota. The Goofers usually suck. So do you want to win titles in your career or suck for 3-4 years? Pretty easy choice especially with the media coverage NDSU gets anyways.
NDSU also does a really good job at getting really good S.D. players, Spencer Waege, Costner Ching etc.
Even next years class includes top players from S.D. like Jesse Hastings and Gray Zabel.

[RabidRabbit]

Only FCS schools within 400 miles of NDSU have Dakota in their name. SDSU adds the two IA FCS teams, Drake and UNI. Other than those, 2nd round match ups do not warrant trying to bus rather than fly for the other MVFC teams. If any of the IL schools make the seeds, much more likely to route to those than to Dakotas in second round, if Dakota isn't in your name. SDSU has either gone to Fargo, or routes out through the Big Sky schools. Jacks have yet to host a semi final, but have played in the last two.

[Professor]

I think it should be 32 teams and everyone plays every week

[JayJ79]

I think it should be 32 teams and everyone plays every week
no reason to expand the playoffs unless there are more than 12 conferences who want to send their champions to the playoffs as AQs (and currently there are only 10, since the Ivy is afraid of postseason play, and the SWAC and MEAC are too preoccupied with their "celebration bowl" and "classics" to participate.

Though I wouldn't mind seeing a re-organization of conferences so that there were no more than 9 teams in each conference and they all played each of their 8 conference-mates every year. But I highly doubt that will ever happen.

[PaladinFan]

I think it should be 32 teams and everyone plays every week

I'm still firmly in the 16 team bracket. Drop some AQ bids from the weaker conferences. Seed the top 4. Finish before Christmas.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

I think it should be 32 teams and everyone plays every week


Another D3 tourney?

No way.

[JayJ79]

I'm still firmly in the 16 team bracket. Drop some AQ bids from the weaker conferences. Seed the top 4. Finish before Christmas.

no. This is an NCAA tournament. every qualifying conference (that chooses to participate) deserves an AQ spot.

[Professor Chaos]

no. This is an NCAA tournament. every qualifying conference (that chooses to participate) deserves an AQ spot.
Agreed. And I like the break between the semis and the finals over the holidays. Makes planning travel much easier... I never had to do it but I'd imagine it would be a zoo trying to get travel and accommodations taken care of in a week between the semis and finals. It would probably lead to less people being at the championship game.

[blackbeard]

I think it should be 32 teams and everyone plays every week

NO. FCS has is right with 24, that is just under 20% of the total number of FCS teams. Nothing meaningful added by passing out 8 more at large slots. Every conference that chooses to participate gets its champion in - that is something huge for the smaller conferences to play for. The top teams from these smaller conferences may not be great, but they are solid teams and certainly are often very competitive in their 1st round games with many first round wins in the last several years. No need to fix what isn't broken.

[clenz]

NO. FCS has is right with 24, that is just under 20% of the total number of FCS teams. Nothing meaningful added by passing out 8 more at large slots. Every conference that chooses to participate gets its champion in - that is something huge for the smaller conferences to play for. The top teams from these smaller conferences may not be great, but they are solid teams and certainly are often very competitive in their 1st round games with many first round wins in the last several years. No need to fix what isn't broken.
I don't know if I'd say many - but I haven't looked at the record.

I know I'm a "power conference" homer, but I'm one of the most outspoken when it comes to making sure the PFL, PL, NEC, Big South still deserve their AQ and that at least 20 (due to NCAA rules) is the correct number.

Now, a bid beyond the AQ? Different opinion from me on that one.

[Redbird 4th & short]

I think our current format is exactly perfect for FCS ... about 25% of the eligible teams make it .. 16 teams play into top 8 seeds. And unfortunate as it may be that playin games are based entirely on budgets (i.e. best bids), I accept that reality even though ideally, you would seed all 24 teams properly and better team hosts .. again, can't ignore economics of FCS.

One area I have harped on .. they just need to do a better job recognizing SOS more objectively. And ALL selections should be equally important to the committee .. just ask those bubble teams who rarely make playoffs how important that bid is to them. Also not a fan of autobids, but willing to accept that since they moved to 24 etam format .. but half get the point of giving every conference a shot. It's when the best team loses to 2nd best team, and they wind up with 2 bids that I hate the weak conference autobid.

To me, the entire point of working your ass off all offseason .. is to play the games and get a fair shot at postseason. I could care less that NDSU has won 7 Nattys in 8 years ... find the best 24 teams and reward them with postseason bid.

[blackbeard]

I don't know if I'd say many - but I haven't looked at the record.

I know I'm a "power conference" homer, but I'm one of the most outspoken when it comes to making sure the PFL, PL, NEC, Big South still deserve their AQ and that at least 20 (due to NCAA rules) is the correct number.

Now, a bid beyond the AQ? Different opinion from me on that one.

Yeah I misspoke, how about "several" instead of "many"

[WileECoyote06]

I'm still firmly in the 16 team bracket. Drop some AQ bids from the weaker conferences. Seed the top 4. Finish before Christmas.

Drop it down to 10. Autobids go to MVFC, Big Sky, CAA, and Southland. Then six at-large bids. #earnit

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Drop it down to 10. Autobids go to MVFC, Big Sky, CAA, and Southland. Then six at-large bids. #earnit

I agree! Although I don't think there needs to be AQ's. The power conference team will basically have AQ's by default and rightfully so. As for the smaller conferences? The PL flat out robbed two far more worthy teams at a playoff spot in 2013 and 2017. I don't think the league deserves a playoff spot this year. If Lehigh were to win the Patriot League I'd be perfectly happy with the season ending following the Lafayette game.

[Professor Chaos]

Really? KSU always puts up a respectable showing in every game. Nobody enjoys playing Kennesaw State. The Owls haven't lost a game by more than 10 points since 2016, nobody blows us out. I assure you. We will beat Monmouth by 35 points, and advance to the quarterfinals where hopefully we play the Bison.
This post is aging well....

[Schism55]

This post is aging well....
Yeah, Monmouth is manhandling Kennesaw.
That sound you hear in the distance is the playoff bubble bursting for a 5th MVFC/Big Sky team....

[Professor Chaos]

Yeah, Monmouth is manhandling Kennesaw.
That sound you hear in the distance is the playoff bubble bursting for a 5th MVFC/Big Sky team....
Well, there's still a long ways to go in that game but if Kennesaw doesn't pick it up I don't think they have any guarantees that 10-2 (8-2 vs D1) gives them an at-large especially if this margin holds up in the Monmouth game.

[Lorne_Malvo]

45-7 ouch

[putter]

1) Don't let the NCAA basketball committee see this thread. Almost all of our teams, outside of Villanova, would be left out of March Madness because they don't have a chance in hell of winning it all.
2) Need to do away with regionalization, its time has passed. NCAA needs to step up and negotiate better TV rights for the games to cover costs as there are millions of people nationwide that are fans of the FCS that would watch.
3) I like the field number. It increases fan engagement by having more schools in the playoffs and 20% of all teams, IMO, does not water it down as much as some think. Hopefully the fans get excited about a playoff birth and support their programs with attendance and giving to help make them better.

[mainejeff]

From the other thread.....my CAA analysis.

Remaining schedules and projections....

UNH (4-1, 5-3) - at JMU, at Albany, Maine......projects to 6-4 heading into Maine game while Maine (2-3, 4-5) - at Elon, URI, at UNH.....projects to 6-5 heading into UNH game. Winner goes to playoffs.

Albany (3-2, 5-4) - at Delaware, UNH, at Stony Brook projects to 6-6. No playoff bid.

Villanova (3-3, 6-3) - Richmond, LIU, Delaware.....projects to 9-3. Playoff bid.

Stony Brook (2-3, 5-4) - Towson, at Delaware, Albany....projects to 7-5. Bubble.

Towson (2-3, 5-4) - at Stony Brook, at W&M, Elon....projects to 7-5. Bubble.

Delaware (2-3, 4-5) - Albany, Stony Brook, at Villanova....projects to 5-7. No playoff bid.

My prediction: JMU, Villanova, Towson, Maine/UNH winner.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Still like Sac St .. they lost 36-17 to a very good Weber St team .. total yards and first downs were even. Sac St was done in by turnovers and field position. Rough estimate, Weber St had over 200 yards of field position advantage.

Sac St starting field position:

> 25 yd line .. 3 drives started at 26, 29, and 33
= 25 yd line .. 4 drives started at 25
< 25 yd line .. 6 drives started inside 25, including 3 inside the 10 ... 1 started at 2 and resulted in safety.

Weber St field position

> 25 yard line .. 9 drives started outside 25 yd line; 3 around 45 yd line and 3 more inside Sac 40 yd line
= 25 yard line .. 3 drives started at 25 yd line
< 25 yard line .. just 1 drive inside their own 25 yd line

Add up those differences, and it comes to about 220 yards I think. Give credit to Weber St for creearting that field position advantage, but those are near impossible holes to dig out of against a tough defense like that.

[Redbird 4th & short]

From the other thread.....my CAA analysis.

Remaining schedules and projections....

UNH (4-1, 5-3) - at JMU, at Albany, Maine......projects to 6-4 heading into Maine game while Maine (2-3, 4-5) - at Elon, URI, at UNH.....projects to 6-5 heading into UNH game. Winner goes to playoffs.

Albany (3-2, 5-4) - at Delaware, UNH, at Stony Brook projects to 6-6. No playoff bid.

Villanova (3-3, 6-3) - Richmond, LIU, Delaware.....projects to 9-3. Playoff bid.

Stony Brook (2-3, 5-4) - Towson, at Delaware, Albany....projects to 7-5. Bubble.

Towson (2-3, 5-4) - at Stony Brook, at W&M, Elon....projects to 7-5. Bubble.

Delaware (2-3, 4-5) - Albany, Stony Brook, at Villanova....projects to 5-7. No playoff bid.

My prediction: JMU, Villanova, Towson, Maine/UNH winner.

you guys play 9 conf games ??

[Derby City Duke]

you guys play 9 conf games ??

Just 8.

[Redbird 4th & short]

From the other thread.....my CAA analysis.

Remaining schedules and projections....

UNH (4-1, 5-3) - at JMU, at Albany, Maine......projects to 6-4 heading into Maine game while Maine (2-3, 4-5) - at Elon, URI, at UNH.....projects to 6-5 heading into UNH game. Winner goes to playoffs.

Albany (3-2, 5-4) - at Delaware, UNH, at Stony Brook projects to 6-6. No playoff bid.

Villanova (3-3, 6-3) - Richmond, LIU, Delaware.....projects to 9-3. Playoff bid.

Stony Brook (2-3, 5-4) - Towson, at Delaware, Albany....projects to 7-5. Bubble.

Towson (2-3, 5-4) - at Stony Brook, at W&M, Elon....projects to 7-5. Bubble.

Delaware (2-3, 4-5) - Albany, Stony Brook, at Villanova....projects to 5-7. No playoff bid.

My prediction: JMU, Villanova, Towson, Maine/UNH winner.

so what are all the above projected records reflecting if not 8 conf games.

[Redbird 4th & short]

so what are all the above projected records reflecting if not 8 conf games.
oh ... never mind