Massey Implied Odds to Reach 8 Wins [Power Conference Teams] [Archive]

smilo

August 29th, 2019, 08:46 PM

I was trying to project preseason playoff odds probability, and I initially took a subjective approach, but judging some of the schedules was a little difficult, especially when I was looking at a team like Elon where there was not a single gimme game.

As my memory serves me, we've had a couple five loss teams makes it from the MVFC in these 12 game seasons, but generally most team's have the goal of meeting an eight win threshold (or having no more than four losses). I do have a higher threshold of 9 for the OVC, but I'm not sure that's necessarily the case for the top teams.

These odds are calculated using the Massey single game probabilities. The end result is that about 16.5 teams are projected to meet eight wins (plus auto bids for the Pioneer, Big South, Patriot and NEC). If one or two of those teams falling just short can monumentally increase their odds with an FBS scalp, this seems to be an appropriate threshold, except for the final team in the field. Without further ado, this is what Massey has to say about each team's probability of meeting this relevant criteria entering week 1:

Eastern Washington: 97.16%
UC-Davis: 76.40%
Weber State: 54.66%
Montana State: 50.00%
Montana: 18.20%
Cal Poly: 15.30% (7 wins / 11 game schedule)
Idaho: 7.67%
Idaho State: 6.38%
Northern Arizona: 5.28%
Portland State: 4.42%
Northern Colorado: 0.10%
Southern Utah: 0.06%
Sacramento State: 0.02%

James Madison: 89.59%
Villanova: 71.60%
Maine: 48.27%
Stony Brook: 44.65%
Towson: 27.23%
New Hampshire: 20.72% (7 wins / 11 game schedule)
Elon: 20.18% (7 wins / 11 game schedule)
Delaware: 19.61%
Rhode Island: 13.50%
Albany: 2.85%
Richmond: 2.16%
William & Mary: 0.69%

NDSU: 99.61%
SDSU: 85.85%
Illinois State: 40.76%
Youngstown State: 40.44%
Western Illinois: 35.38%
Northern Iowa: 24.34%
Indiana State: 21.88%
North Dakota: 14.81%
South Dakota: 9.06%
Southern Illinois: 2.35%
Missouri State: 1.25%

(OVC - 9 wins)
Jacksonville State: 43.27%
Southeastern Missouri State: 20.55%
Tennessee State: 7.42%
Austin Peay: 6.33%
Eastern Kentucky: 1.88%
Murray State: 1.48%
UT-Martin: 0.43%
Eastern Illinois: 0.27%
Tennessee Tech: 0%

Wofford: 81.49% (7 wins / 11 games)
Furman: 49.94%
Samford: 31.46%
Mercer: 29.12% (7 wins / 11 games)
The Citadel: 14.00%
ETSU: 6.37%
Chattanooga: 6.26%
Western Carolina: 0.83%
VMI: 0.06%

Nicholls State: 75.60%
Lamar: 51.48%
Incarnate Word: 41.58%
Sam Houston State: 25.11%
Central Arkansas: 20.57%
McNeese State: 13.66%
Abilene Christian: 13.42%
Southeastern Louisiana: 12.82%
Northwestern State: 4.59%
Stephen F. Austin: 0.27%
Houston Baptist: 0.03%

Thoughts? I may continue updating for some of the more relevant teams and thought this would be intriguing to track. Massey obviously loves the MVFC.

My subjective try as this was much more bullish on Montana State (70%), Northern Arizona (25%), Towson (60%), Illinois State (65%), Indiana State (55%), Youngstown State (65%), Eastern Kentucky (22%), Furman (70%), The Citadel (35%), Sam Houston State (60%), and Central Arkansas (65%), among many others. This is to be expected when I was targeted the numbers to sum to 2400% rather than the actual lower result. But I also think that Massey preseason has its limitations and is underrating a number of these teams.

On the contrary, I didn't expect nearly as much out of Lamar, Samford, Mercer, or Stony Brook to name a few. I can maybe see it for Lamar or Stony Brook given their schedules, but it's much harder to see it for the SoCon team, who I think are on the weaker end of their conference.

If anything looks odd, I'm happy to rerun! A lot of manual inputs here until I can figure out a more efficient way to do this.

Sader87

August 29th, 2019, 08:49 PM

I don't see the Ivy League :)

TheKingpin28

August 29th, 2019, 08:50 PM

I don't see the Ivy League :)

He said Power Conference, not Elitist Conference.

smilo

August 29th, 2019, 08:54 PM

I don't see the Ivy League :)

The Tigers have a special place in my heart, and it hurts that I can't list them. Even in such a superior conference, 100% chance that they reach the benchmark - book it!

Sader87

August 29th, 2019, 08:55 PM

Kind of funny when the Massey Ratings themselves have the Ivy League as 4th best league in FCS

smilo

September 2nd, 2019, 07:02 PM

Notable Movers Entering Week 2 (Change in Parentheses):

Weber State 40.62% (-14.04%)
Montana 37.4% (+19.20%)

Maine 56.17% (+7.90%)
Stony Brook 50.05% (+5.40%)
Towson 35.92% (+8.69%) - one of the most likely contenders for a 7-5 at-large, if it comes to it.
Elon 7.84% (-12.34%)

Illinois State 24.19% (-16.57%) - Surprised by this big change.
Western Illinois 5.96% (-29.42%)
South Dakota 1.65% (-7.41%)

Jacksonville State 16.96% (-26.31%)
Southeast Missouri State 35.50% (+14.95%)
Austin Peay 13.33% (+7.00%)

Wofford 45.56% (-35.93%)
Mercer - 42.01% (+12.89%)
Chattanooga 13.39% (+7.13%) - Surprised it's not more with both Wofford and JSU on the schedule! Seems severely understated given who they get at home/road in conference even with JMU OOC.
The Citadel 7.10% (-6.90%) - Still a big believer personally if they can rebound vs Elon!
Samford 5.31% (-26.15%)

Nicholls State 63.67% (-11.93%)
Central Arkansas 44.64% (+24.07%) - May only need seven with the second FBS, come playoff time
Southeastern Louisiana 40.40% (+27.58%) - Includes impact of cancellation of Bethune-Cookman game and now only need 7-4. If Bethune-Cookman were played, P(W>=8)=33.85%
Incarnate Word 21.76% (-19.82%)

The estimated number of teams meeting this criteria has dropped from 16.33 to 15.35, which means we have gone from 3.67 to 4.65 auto-bids from 5 loss teams (and, more likely, 4 loss OVC teams not named Tennessee State). In fairness, I did not re-calculate for teams less than 1% in Week 1 and that may represent nearly 10% of the change.

FUBeAR

September 2nd, 2019, 09:55 PM

Notable Movers Entering Week 2 (Change in Parentheses):

Weber State 40.62% (-14.04%)
Montana 37.4% (+19.20%)

Maine 56.17% (+7.90%)
Stony Brook 50.05% (+5.40%)
Towson 35.92% (+8.69%) - one of the most likely contenders for a 7-5 at-large, if it comes to it.
Elon 7.84% (-12.34%)

Illinois State 24.19% (-16.57%) - Surprised by this big change.
Western Illinois 5.96% (-29.42%)
South Dakota 1.65% (-7.41%)

Jacksonville State 16.96% (-26.31%)
Southeast Missouri State 35.50% (+14.95%)
Austin Peay 13.33% (+7.00%)

Wofford 45.56% (-35.93%)
Mercer - 42.01% (+12.89%)
Chattanooga 13.39% (+7.13%) - Surprised it's not more with both Wofford and JSU on the schedule! Seems severely understated given who they get at home/road in conference even with JMU OOC.
The Citadel 7.10% (-6.90%) - Still a big believer personally if they can rebound vs Elon!
Samford 5.31% (-26.15%)

Nicholls State 63.67% (-11.93%)
Central Arkansas 44.64% (+24.07%) - May only need seven with the second FCS, come playoff time
Southeastern Louisiana 40.40% (+27.58%) - Includes impact of cancellation of Bethune-Cookman game and now only need 7-4. If Bethune-Cookman were played, P(W>=8)=33.85%
Incarnate Word 21.76% (-19.82%)

The estimated number of teams meeting this criteria has dropped from 16.33 to 15.35, which means we have gone from 3.67 to 4.65 auto-bids from 5 loss teams (and, more likely, 4 loss OVC teams not named Tennessee State). In fairness, I did not re-calculate for teams less than 1% in Week 1 and that may represent nearly 10% of the change.
Massey hasn’t added Mercer’s recently scheduled game with Presbyterian this weekend. I assume Mercer will be heavily favored, which will get them to 8 ‘Massey wins’ @ 8-4 (projected losses to Furman, Citadel, Wofford, and North Carolina).

FUBeAR sees the Bears likely record @ 10-1-1, but he doesn’t have a website or a Cray computer.

smilo

September 2nd, 2019, 10:35 PM

Massey hasn’t added Mercer’s recently scheduled game with Presbyterian this weekend. I assume Mercer will be heavily favored, which will get them to 8 ‘Massey wins’ @ 8-4 (projected losses to Furman, Citadel, Wofford, and North Carolina).

FUBeAR sees the Bears likely record @ 10-1-1, but he doesn’t have a website or a Cray computer.

I ran the Presbyterian game with 98% win probability, but it doesn't have a major impact on the goal of having no more than four losses.

Furman rose slightly to 53.70% of reaching 8 wins, but I think that's severely understated. I think you have a better than even shot against Georgia State, and Chattanooga is only marginally more difficult. A little tough split on conference home/road games, but I am optimistic. Could be anywhere from 2 to 4 losses, but 2 seems much likelier, and I would take '2 or fewer' especially with a better than even odds payout. Hence my own subjective playoff probability is 80%.

I have seven other teams even more undervalued against Massey, but the 3 MVFC teams and 2 CAA teams are more easily explained by being the teams taking those coveted 5-loss at-large spots. As such, only UCA and UTC seem to be comparably undervalued imo. We will see if that remains true for the latter this week.

ST_Lawson

September 3rd, 2019, 08:10 AM

Notable Movers Entering Week 2 (Change in Parentheses):
...
Western Illinois 5.96% (-29.42%)
...

In the words of the great Tom Petty, "Yeah I'm free...free fallin'".

JMUNJ08

September 3rd, 2019, 09:57 AM

Very cool way to look at the numbers and see the week to week impact! Will be on the lookout for this each week to see how the projections go (even if its with the Massey numbers)

Gangtackle11

September 3rd, 2019, 10:02 AM

Curious to know Villanova’s movement given its win over an at the time Top 15 Colgate. Would think they have been a top % mover. xpeacex

smilo

September 3rd, 2019, 02:04 PM

Curious to know Villanova’s movement given its win over an at the time Top 15 Colgate. Would think they have been a top % mover. xpeacex

Undoubtedly yes, but being a Villanova fan and suffering so many disappointments, my excitement about the playoff bubble and necessary # of wins did not begin until Week 0 ended so this was made on Thursday of Week 1. The original probability is largely unchanged. Week 4 will be very exciting, especially with Towson surely needing a win! I don't love the schedule order against increasingly strong playoff contenders, but it doesn't matter if we take care of business including our annual end of season beatdown of little brother.

Really appreciate all the encouragement to continue this going forward. So great to have as many people geek about the 20th best team as much as I do

Outsider1

September 3rd, 2019, 02:28 PM

Undoubtedly yes, but being a Villanova fan and suffering so many disappointments, my excitement about the playoff bubble and necessary # of wins did not begin until Week 0 ended so this was made on Thursday of Week 1. The original probability is largely unchanged. Week 4 will be very exciting, especially with Towson surely needing a win! I don't love the schedule order against increasingly strong playoff contenders, but it doesn't matter if we take care of business including our annual end of season beatdown of little brother.

Really appreciate all the encouragement to continue this going forward. So great to have as many people geek about the 20th best team as much as I do

I think this will be great this as the season progresses. Good work.

smilo

September 9th, 2019, 10:39 PM

Big Sky - the five teams always believed to be in the hunt largely just strengthened their position. Massey's original perception on UC-Davis vis-a-vis the public looks pretty good. Bubble matchups will largely happen much later in the year. Solid shape for four bids, but a fifth could emerge as the frontrunner for the final spot if all five take care of business in games they should win, which has not happened in recent years.
#2 Eastern Washington 93.58%
#7 UC-Davis 62.87% (TOP DROP: -5.58%)
#12 Montana State 55.76% (+15.57%)
#8 Weber State 51.89% (+11.36%)
#10 Montana 43.37% (+5.97%)
#15 North Dakota 29.11% (TOP GAIN: +20.35%) - Not sure if I made a mistake the prior week or if losing to NDSU by so little is an accomplishment. Looks to be correct given where they were Week 1 to reach both 7 and 8 wins.
#25 Cal Poly 15.99% (-5.54%)
#36 Northern Arizona 7.90%
#24 Idaho 6.85%
#35 Portland State 5.78% (Would include two D2s)
#22 Idaho State 5.67%

Colonial - Two teams effectively eliminated themselves from serious playoff contention in Week 2. Bubbly teams with UNH on the schedule saw their odds pop up a bit. Elon remains on the fringes as a strong team but cannot slip up due to the 11 game schedule. Delaware - despite dropping in my own poll - boosted their odds the most by winning an effective coin flip in triple OT. We may be looking back on that OT at year-end. While Delaware's odds doubled, they remain an underdog to reach 8 wins, but they remain among the most likely 7 win playoff teams, especially if they hold off Stony Brook at home.
#5 James Madison 93.06%
#11 Villanova 75.73% (+4.47%)
#14 Maine 56.83%
#23 Stony Brook 46.68% (-3.37%)
#16 Towson 41.58% (+5.66%)
#19 Delaware 36.57% (TOP GAIN: +17.03%)
#34 Elon 9.89%
#42 New Hampshire 5.62% (TOP DROP: -15.49%)
#40 Rhode Island 3.09% (-8.78%)
#69 Albany 2.41%
#58 Richmond 1.73%
#53 William & Mary 0.73%

MVFC - Northern Iowa remains similarly positioned to Delaware in that they are almost certainly in at 7 wins despite being a slight underdog to reach the magical #8. The road games at Weber State and Illinois State will give them a couple of chances to quickly turn those odds around in a week's time. Youngstown is a slight underdog since they have road games against all the average teams off-the-bubble that can pull an upset. A lot of coin flips coming up - best not look past Duquesne (83%) which is boosting this probability big time. It's early with a lot of uncertainty ahead, but fans of both ISU-r and Youngstown could easily be looking at a play-in game a week before Thanksgiving.
#1 North Dakota State 99.99%
#3 South Dakota State 90.95% (+4.39%)
#13 Youngstown State 45.39% (TOP GAIN: +6.67%)
#9 Northern Iowa 33.06%
#17 Illinois State 22.55%
#29 Southern Illinois 2.38% (BACK FROM THE DEAD)
#43 Indiana State 2.12% (TOP DROP: -15.97%)
#41 Western Illinois 1.55% (-4.41%)
#33 South Dakota 1.42%

OVC (9 wins) - May be a bit unfair for me to ask for nine, but I think an 8 win team here is among the last two in behind a 7 game winner from the CAA/MVFC if it happens. Unfortunate to see Austin Peay drop so much after a strong performance, but they'll need to win the remaining OOC games as underdogs to get back in this if they want an at-large.
#38 Jacksonville State 26.87% (TOP GAIN +9.91%)
#31 Southeast Missouri State 25.67% (TOP DROP - 9.83%)
#65 Austin Peay 6.23% (-7.10%)
#77 Tennessee State 4.26%
#75 Eastern Kentucky 2.32%
#73 Murray State 2.00%
#57 UT-Martin 1.57%

Southern - A lot of tough losses for the conference this week result in everyone but Mercer going down. While Furman looks strong and while some of these teams have poor at-large odds, I wouldn't count out a surprise auto-bid from the bottom four to take one of those four spots. It's a little hard to see a seven win at-large team getting in given how the conference has not won out of conference, but it's nice to see The Citadel put up a fight against good competition. Likely a two-bid league.
#37 Furman 50.46% (-3.24%)
#46 Mercer 48.90% (TOP GAIN: +6.89%)
#50 Wofford 44.23%
#71 ETSU 5.35%
#62 Chattanooga 5.02% (TOP DROP: -8.37%)
#76 Samford 4.72%
#66 The Citadel 3.77% (-3.33%)

Southland - The only conference with eight teams that have double digit probabilities! Not too much movement but Central Arkansas winning a 67% probability OOC game is obviously a huge boon. And the Jax State win looks good again for SELA. There appears to be a strong possibility of three teams comfortably in the field, especially if the likes of Lamar and Incarnate Word become more-and-more like cupcakes in Massey for the real competitors. All just looking forward to conference play to create some separation at this point though Sam Houston could turn this into solid 3 bids to almost 3.5 if they beat North Dakota.
#18 Central Arkansas 66.00% (TOP GAIN: +21.36%)
#21 Nicholls State 62.06%
#32 Southeastern Louisiana 47.49% (+7.09%)
#39 Lamar 38.48% (TOP DROP: -13.56%)
#48 Sam Houston State 22.55%
#52 Incarnate Word 18.87%
#47 McNeese State 15.23%
#44 Abilene Christian 11.39%

nodak651

September 10th, 2019, 02:02 PM

UND jumped to #15 after the Drake win, and they weren't on your week 2 update. UND stayed at #15 after the loss to NDSU, so I think the % gain is from the change from week one.

smilo

September 16th, 2019, 11:02 PM

The forecast is now for 16.34 teams to reach the benchmarks, up a full spot from two weeks ago. Thank EWU for making room for some companions to also clear their necessary win totals and especially The Citadel for poaching one.

Big Sky
#11 Montana State 76.15% (TOP GAIN: +20.39%) - as far as I can tell, this is largely the beneficiary of a Cal Poly drop, their eighth easiest game, along with a smaller drop from Montana.
#5 Eastern Washington 75.81% (TOP DROP: -17.77%)
#7 UC-Davis 61.03%
#10 Weber State 42.21% (-9.77%)
#13 Montana 35.58% (-7.79%)
#17 North Dakota 35.90% (+6.79%)
#22 Idaho 11.55% (+4.59%)
#37 Cal Poly 6.90 (-9.09%)
#42 Northern Arizona 6.52%
#38 Portland State 6.21% (Would include two D2s)
#27 Idaho State 5.66%
#40 Sacramento State 0.83% BACK FROM THE DEAD

Colonial - While the Towson/Maine game provided one of those classic playoff tilts we all were looking to see here, don't sleep on Elon! Villanova/Towson could move this quite a bit again next week but likely not as wildly without a blowout.
#5 James Madison 93.47%
#8 Towson 76.98% (TOP GAIN: 35.40%)
#14 Villanova 77.54%
#26 Stony Brook 41.47% (-5.21%)
#19 Delaware 33.97% (-2.60%)
#21 Maine 28.46% (TOP DROP -28.37%)
#24 Elon 20.08% (+10.19%)
#33 William & Mary 6.84% (+6.11%)
#43 Rhode Island 2.81%
#49 New Hampshire 2.50% (-3.12%)
#76 Albany 0.37%
#68 Richmond 0.17%

MVFC
#1 North Dakota State 100.00% LOCK
#2 South Dakota State 92.56%
#12 Youngstown State 61.44% (TOP GAIN: +16.05%)
#9 Northern Iowa 37.08% (+4.02%)
#18 Illinois State 28.95% (+6.40%)
#30 Southern Illinois 3.92%
#44 Indiana State 3.30%
#55 Western Illinois <0.1% (TOP DROP: -1.46%) ELIMINATED
#58 South Dakota <0.1% ELIMINATED

OVC (9 wins)
#25 Jacksonville State 64.62% (TOP GAIN: +37.75%)
#35 Southeast Missouri State 24.67%
#47 Austin Peay 23.35% (+17.12%)
#70 Murray State 1.21%
#78 Eastern Kentucky 0.68%
#63 UT-Martin 0.31%
#87 Tennessee State 0.29% (TOP DROP: -3.97%)

Southern- Last week's #2-4 all collapsed mightily this week, but we seemingly have a new 'clear' two frontrunners...for now. The Samford/Wofford game was less a tilt than cannibalization of third serious contender in favour of two teams equally buried in a deep hole. Mercer and Samford lay buried behind fellow bubble teams they lost to.
#34 Furman 56.33% (+5.87%)
#29 The Citadel 38.97% (TOP GAIN: +35.20%)
#54 Mercer 17.35% (TOP DROP: -31.55%) - immediately loses all gains from being a top gainer last week
#51 Samford 14.53% (+9.81%)
#60 Wofford 13.93% (-30.30%)
#49 Chattanooga 3.02%
#77 VMI 2.05% BACK FROM THE DEAD
#82 ETSU 0.32% (-5.03%)

Southland - The Jax State keeps looking better and better for the SLC hoping for four, but Sam Houston State could not convert. We still have a wide open race for a potential fourth but SHSU moves off the mark.
#15 Central Arkansas 72.85% (+6.85%)
#16 Nicholls State 67.06% (+5.00%)
#23 Southeastern Louisiana 59.14% (TOP GAIN: +11.64%)
#39 Lamar 32.37% (TOP DROP: -6.11%)
#36 McNeese State 22.78% (+7.55%)
#45 Sam Houston State 18.57% (-3.98%) - While the UND loss wasn't particularly needed to get to 8 wins, it doesn't bode well for a conference slate full of toss-ups.
#46 Incarnate Word 15.70% (-3.17%)
#41 Abilene Christian 7.44% (-3.95%)
#80 Houston Baptist 0.91% BACK FROM THE DEAD

The increasing likelihood of two bids for the OVC and five bids for the Big Sky is spelling trouble for the MVFC and CAA. UNI remains a likely candidate to fill the final spot if they top out at seven wins. The CAA - in particular, Maine, Delaware and Elon - have played themselves into a very precarious position with little room for error. All will have ample opportunities against the likes of Villanova/Stony Brook, and Sagarin is particularly low on Stony Brook.

Preferred Walk-On

September 16th, 2019, 11:24 PM

Kind of funny when the Massey Ratings themselves have the Ivy League as 4th best league in FCS

Almost laughable, really.

That said, I do think the top 1-2 Ivy teams could make some noise in the playoffs every so often. It's really a shame we will never know.

Professor

September 17th, 2019, 09:58 AM

Lol we have power conferences in FCS now lol

Professor Chaos

September 17th, 2019, 10:20 AM

Lol we have power conferences in FCS now lol
Well, the point of the thread is to give an idea of where the at-large playoff bids are going to come from and it's pretty unlikely any conference outside of these 6 gets any at-large playoff bids.

Power conferences is easier to write/say than "conferences who are probably going to get all the at-large playoff bids".

smilo

September 22nd, 2019, 08:52 PM

Entering Week 5, the forecast is up to 16.96 (+0.62!) to reach the benchmarks continuing our ascent. However, the OVC takes a small hit this week potentially opening up space for one of the big three.

The playoff picture is remarkably consistent showing on average four bids each for the Big Sky/CAA/MVFC, two for the SoCon, three for the Southland and two complete toss-ups that I tend to believe will go to eight win teams. The Big Sky is less of a frontrunner for one of those two slots than the prior week projections.

Big Sky - Many Big Sky teams were greatly impacted due to the unbalanced future schedules. Sac State and Idaho made some schedules more precarious and EWU (and apparently Montana State?) are no longer completely insurmountable for others. Adding another top 20 team to the schedules largely hurts on the conference on aggregate. *sigh*. It's also harder to see a 5 loss team from here with all the D2's forced on the calendar.
#14 Montana State 70.56% (-5.59%)
#6 UC-Davis 64.18% (+3.15%)
#10 Eastern Washington 41.41% (Back to Back TOP DROP: -34.40%)
#17 North Dakota 41.18% (+5.28%)
#11 Montana 39.20% (+3.62%)
#9 Weber State 38.14% (-4.07%)
#15 Idaho 34.97% (TOP GAIN: +23.53%)
#35 Cal Poly 6.89%
#44 Northern Arizona 3.23% (-3.29%)
#36 Portland State 6.02% (Would include two D2s)
#26 Idaho State 3.68%
#30 Sacramento State 1.88%

Colonial -IMO, Maine looks to have a pretty reasonable path to 8 wins even with a loss this week, even though Massey is pretty hard on them. The issue is that is requires two road wins against Elon/UNH/Liberty. Towson has a sneakily tough path that requires three victories over Delaware/Elon/@SBU/@W&M. Hard to say if one or the other is better positioned with seven wins (Maine has two FBS games but only Towson plays JMU.) Stony Brook at 7 wins would have virtually no resume to speak of. Delaware at 7 only be marginally more impressive.
#4 James Madison 95.83%
#8 Villanova 93.83% (TOP GAIN: +16.29%)
#12 Towson 60.12% (TOP DROP: -16.86%)
#24 Stony Brook 49.46% (+7.99%)
#19 Maine 44.36% (+15.90%)
#20 Delaware 32.58%
#28 Elon 18.35%
#45 New Hampshire 3.05%
#42 William & Mary 2.09% (-4.75%)
#70 Albany 0.98%
#53 Rhode Island 0.36%
#62 Richmond 0.10%

MVFC - Consolidation week for the three bubbly teams trying to stretch this to five.
#1 North Dakota State 100.00% LOCK
#2 South Dakota State 94.49%
#13 Youngstown State 67.08% (+5.64%)
#7 Northern Iowa 46.04% (TOP GAIN+8.96%)
#18 Illinois State 36.09% (+7.14%)
#32 Southern Illinois 3.74%
#41 Indiana State 3.58%

OVC (9 wins)
#25 Jacksonville State 69.06% (+4.44%)
#31 Southeast Missouri State 31.47% (TOP GAIN: +6.80%)
#58 Austin Peay 5.43% (TOP DROP: -17.92%)
#64 Tennessee Tech 2.45% BACK FROM THE DEAD
#67 Murray State 1.81%
#77 Eastern Kentucky 0.89%
#62 UT-Martin 0.23%
#99 Tennessee State <0.1% ELIMINATED

Southern - Mercer's loss reopens the gates for a couple of more traditional conference competitors to take an at-large, but given Samford's loss to Youngstown, it's hard to say if 8 will be enough - it would almost certainly require cannibalizing The Citadel and/or Youngstown being comfortably in. Meanwhile, Wofford has a fortunate schedule that gives it plenty of time to re-invent an offense before trying to unseat the top 2 in November, but with a conference loss and a bad OOC loss, the hole is deeper than this lets on.
#29 Furman 76.53% (TOP GAIN: +20.20%)
#33 The Citadel 41.34%
#43 Samford 27.61% (+13.08%)
#56 Wofford 18.88% (+4.95%)
#75 Mercer 5.83% (Back to Back TOP DROP: -11.52%)
#63 Chattanooga 1.61%
#78 ETSU 0.87%
#93 VMI <0.1% RE-ELIMINATED

Southland - Conference play shakes up quite a bit, but we finally have a frontrunner for the fourth spot! The Bearkat win was so big that the odds are significantly better than they were before the UND game!
#16 Nicholls State 76.00% (+8.94%)
#23 Southeastern Louisiana 74.72% (+15.59%)
#21 Central Arkansas 68.07% (-4.78%)
#39 Sam Houston State 39.83% (TOP GAIN: +21.26%)
#51 Lamar 19.43% (-12.94%)
#40 Abilene Christian 11.81% (+4.37%)
#46 McNeese State 9.26% (TOP DROP: -13.52%)
#65 Houston Baptist 5.85% (+4.94%)
#59 Incarnate Word 3.56% (-12.14%)

smilo

September 29th, 2019, 07:26 PM

We have our first week in decline of teams meeting the benchmark. OVC once again looking stronger along with the SoCon and Southland this week. That is mostly at the expense of the top-heavy Colonial. The conference with the most games to show us what is up will be the Big Sky.

Big Sky - HUGE Shake-up week! October has many more shake-ups to come, but the Griz should feel pretty comfortable regardless of the outcomes. The conference picked up a big OOC win in Weber over UNI, but Idaho slim shot got cannibalized. While UC-Davis is a good 7-win-and-in candidate, the odds of getting eight are slim. The fourth bid is likely to come down to EWU getting win #8 or UC-Davis in at 7. UND vs. Davis may also have enormous implications for which team can conceivably reach 7.
#4 Montana 82.64% (TOP GAIN: +43.44%)
#9 Montana State 77.37% (+6.81%)
#8 Weber State 54.86% (+16.72%)
#13 Eastern Washington 34.77% (-6.64%)
#17 North Dakota 32.48% (-8.70%)
#14 UC-Davis 22.92% (TOP DROP: -41.26%)
#29 Cal Poly 10.94% (+4.05%)
#19 Idaho State 7.76% (+4.08%)
#27 Idaho 5.39% (-29.58%)
#26 Sacramento State 3.18%
#41 Portland State 1.48% (Would include two D2s)
#44 Northern Arizona 1.19%

Colonial - As I mentioned last week, Maine has a reasonable path to the playoff - perhaps even more so now with the Elon blowout loss - but this does not look like a very good team and a blowout in a 50-50 game does not bode well in the computers. Conference odds technically declined slightly this week, but Delaware/Towson/Maine have a shot as a 7-win bid. About 33% chance of a 7-win 5th bid.
#7 Villanova 99.27% (+5.44%)
#3 James Madison 99.05% (+3.22%)
#12 Towson 56.48% (-3.64%)
#15 Stony Brook 63.67% (TOP GAIN: +14.21%)
#16 Delaware 32.58% (+9.38%)
#23 Maine 21.67% (TOP DROP: -22.69%)
#34 Elon 6.11% (-12.24%)
#35 New Hampshire 6.05%
#57 Albany 3.03%
#49 William & Mary 0.23% (-4.75%)
#48 Rhode Island <0.1% ELIMINATED
#86 Richmond 0.00% ELIMINATED

MVFC - Nowhere to go but down (until a bubble team upsets the top 2). Giving it a 67% chance of a 7-win team as the fourth bid. 5 bid longshot but we should know how realistic that is by the end of the month.
#1 North Dakota State 100.00% LOCK
#2 South Dakota State 95.33%
#11 Youngstown State 68.50%
#20 Illinois State 34.33%
#10 Northern Iowa 28.30% (TOP DROP: -17.74%)
#30 Southern Illinois 4.49%
#40 Indiana State 2.90%

OVC (9 wins) - With a likely messy auto-bid scenario, hard to see this being a one-bid league. Give 'em an at-large!
#32 Southeast Missouri State 36.92% (+5.45%)
#37 Jacksonville State 35.23% (TOP DROP: -33.83%)
#46 Austin Peay 21.04% (TOP GAIN: +15.61%)
#54 Tennessee Tech 8.93% (+6.48%)
#77 Eastern Kentucky 2.31%
#68 UT-Martin 0.84%
#84 Murray State <0.1% ELIMINATED

Southern - Samford takes full-advantage and could place themselves in position to steal the auto! Their at-large hopes remain murky if up against Youngstown. Cit is projected to take a bad loss down the stretch limiting this to 2 bids, but odds of three are reasonable if the top teams don't drop any to weaker teams.
#31 Furman 78.62%
#38 Samford 47.83% (TOP GAIN: +20.22%)
#55 Wofford 24.36% (+5.48%)
#39 The Citadel 23.75% (TOP DROP: -17.59%)
#67 Chattanooga 2.85%
#82 ETSU 0.56%
#85 Mercer 0.34% (-5.49%)

Southland - Sam Houston State suddenly looks like a legitimate threat! Is 8 enough over a Big Sky team that beat UND? Close call ahead! Odds are likely that one of the top four drops a game somewhere along the way.
#22 Southeastern Louisiana 78.43 (+3.71%)
#25 Nicholls State 77.23%
#18 Central Arkansas 76.75% (+8.68%)
#28 Sam Houston State 66.11% (TOP GAIN: +26.28%)
#60 Houston Baptist 12.78% (+6.93%)
#53 Incarnate Word 8.71% (+5.15%)
#44 Abilene Christian 2.52% (-9.29%)
#56 McNeese State 2.49% (-6.77%)
#78 Lamar 1.78% (TOP DROP: -17.65%)

Professor Chaos

September 29th, 2019, 07:56 PM

Could the SLC be a 4 bid league? Seems like they'll get at least 3. The SOCON and OVC's losses might be their gain.

smilo

September 29th, 2019, 08:39 PM

Inspired by an ESPN article ranking the top 10 games that will move the FBS playoff needle in October, I sought to identify any games that could conceivably move the playoff needle by 15% of more next month. That totaled 50 games! So I will take it week-by-week ranking the most playoff-influential games ahead.

For October 5, we have nine deeply impactful tilts and five games that could move the needle depending on the outcome.

1. UC-Davis (50%) @ North Dakota
As mentioned above, as true a 50-50 match-up between two teams praying to reach 7 wins as you could possibly find. Davis has the potential to go on a tear of November upsets, but neither can afford to lose this one without their odds dropping to longshot levels. Davis may need it more. Regardless, the loser will definitely need to steal one from the top 10 Bobcats at home.

2. Youngstown State (34%) @ Northern Iowa
The winner of this one will move close to lock territory by Columbus Day lock standards. The loser will remain in pretty good shape but will need to beat Illinois State (and in Youngstown's case, a few tricky traps).

3. Furman (52%) @ Samford
Neither team really "needs" this to reach 8 wins, but after last season, I think Furman fans will want this one a little more. Samford has a much less tricky path to 8 wins while Furman has a non-counter and three tricky more tricky games, which they may need to sweep. A loss would leave little room for error after a promising start. By winning this game and the auto-bid, Samford is looking to avoid a potential bubble that could include multiple OVC teams that handled TTU and a 7-win YSU.

4. Weber State (62%) @ Idaho
Idaho may be on the verge of moving to de facto elimination (<1% odds) with a loss, but Weber's chances are incredibly low for a top 10 team. A road loss will largely leave bubble teams celebrating. A road win and they will probably need just one more road win in these opportunities. Their 55% playoff odds could move up or down by 20%.

5. Central Arkansas (39%) @ Nicholls State
A win for Central Arkansas would nearly turn them into a lock. The game matters much more for the home team that we know so little about and that has a much more daunting path forward. Road games against the other contenders could single-handedly knock them out - not to mention the newer D1 trio)! But we may know just as little about SELA and SHSU.

6. Wofford (61%) @ ETSU
A road win by favored Wofford will nearly double their 24% playoff chance (likely coming down to a coin flip to see if they can upset either Furman or The Citadel to end the year - thus bubble teams from other conference need not worry here).

7. Montana State (57%) @ Cal Poly
This game currently serves as the 'eighth win' on Montana State's schedule getting them into the playoffs if everything plays out as projected. If they drop this on the road, they still have two coin flips that barely tilt against them but would likely tilt even more strongly against them with new data. Best to get it done now. Cal Poly would drop to mid-single digit odds with a loss here but is still a longshot with a win.

8. Southeastern Louisiana (63%) @ McNeese State
The first of the trap road games against second-tier SLC competition that will likely knock out one of the top four. After a small scare against an in-state rival last week, keep this one in view. Are the Lions overrated by virtue of JSU's inconsistency? To be determined! A win here makes it tough to see a worse result than 7-4, but I won't ever call 7 wins and closing with three losses safe. A SELA win keeps them at much more likely than not.

9. Eastern Washington (66%) @ Sacramento State
Sacramento State has quite the impossible schedule so winning this still doesn't get them very close. However, a tough road loss for EWU would mean their only path to the playoffs goes through Missoula rather than just Pocatello and San Luis Obispo.

10. Tennessee Tech (14%) @ Southeast Missouri State
This is me interjecting over Massey because this is the start of a very tough three game stretch for SEMO. Two out of three likely gets them in, and they won't want to drop the easy one. Tennessee Tech does not need this at all - but beating any one of the OVC top 3 will put them squarely on the bubble thanks to Samford's recent performances. This and one more could make the safe.

11. James Madison (75%) @ Stony Brook
Very limited bubble impact. JMU is a near lock. Stony Brook will stay above 50% with a loss, but could move to nearly 85% with a home upset. A loss will force them to potentially cannibalize Delaware or Towson if they want in.

12. Idaho State (26%) @ Montana
Not expected to be close, but a loss almost end Idaho State's hopes (<2.5%) given a non-counter on the schedule. Montana has too many coin flips for one of their easier games to move their already strong odds too much more without a complete blowout.

13. North Dakota State (91%) @ Illinois State
Not a very high probability, but a win would move Illinois State to nearly 70%. The following week is much more critical for them, so they will need to avoid a UC-Davis-like letdown after hosting the Bison.

14. Elon (41%) @ New Hampshire
Two teams with 11 game schedules and no room for further error. The winner could conceivably move to double digit playoff odds, but the outcome is more likely to negatively impact CAA bubble teams that only have the winner on their schedule.

Possible I may have overlooked your team so feel free to comment.

smilo

September 29th, 2019, 08:54 PM

Could the SLC be a 4 bid league? Seems like they'll get at least 3. The SOCON and OVC's losses might be their gain.

Definitely possible, but I would really only feel good about UCA. As I mentioned below, we don't know very much about SELA, and the 11 game schedule is not ideal, and they could be kept out a la Youngstown (iirc) for an L3 streak. They will need JSU to be highly regarded, which remains to be seen if they will even seriously be on the bubble.

Sam Houston could conceivably be left out with eight wins in favor of a Big Sky team, and they could easily only have seven.

Of course, my pick for most overrated chances may be Nicholls State. Will cheer for them as a lovable loser in recent history, but little evidence that this remains a strong team to date. We will find out very quickly though!

There are probably too many question marks for four bids. One could argue that two bids is equally likely as four if ACU/UIW/HB or even McNeese steal a game or two. The 12 game schedule probably benefits the big three conferences (more seven win teams to accept). Only EWU has been scalped by a lower conference, and the only SLC beneficiary is a small second degree bubble benefit to Southeastern.

FUGameBreaker

October 2nd, 2019, 05:49 AM

Could the SLC be a 4 bid league? Seems like they'll get at least 3. The SOCON and OVC's losses might be their gain.

After last year's SLC performance in the postseason, highly doubt it

DFW HOYA

October 2nd, 2019, 07:50 AM

Patriot League teams that can reach eight wins:

Georgetown (3-1): Must win five of final 7 but still won't be considered for at-large
Fordham (2-3): Must win six of final 7
Holy Cross (1-3): Split with the Ivies and go undefeated in the PL
Lehigh (1-3); Must run the table
Bucknell (0-4); Must run the table
Colgate (0-5): Eliminated
Lafayette (0-5): Eliminated

Professor Chaos

October 2nd, 2019, 08:02 AM

After last year's SLC performance in the postseason, highly doubt it
I doubt that will have any bearing on the selection process this year. The selection committee has enough to take into consideration and worry about from this year than to bring last year's conference playoff performance into the picture.

BEAR

October 2nd, 2019, 08:34 AM

IF and I mean IF UCA wins this Saturday I see Massey ratings has their future schedule like this:

McNeese at home- 80% chance to win.
NWST on road- 86% chance to win
SHSU at home- 58% chance to win
Lamar on road- 70% chance to win
SLU at home- 59% chance to win
SFA at home- 86% chance to win
UIW on raod- 61% chance to win

So if you take the games UCA has 80+% chance to win and throw in one more win of the rest they will sit at 8 wins with an FBS win included. Plus victories over #17 Nicholls and hopefully either a ranked SHSU or ranked SLU. That should be good enough for a spot in the playoffs. Run the table and its a seed with our only loss to FBS #26 Hawaii...but I don't see that happening. xlolx

OMG...I just looked at our schedule and we only have two home games between August 29th and October 26th. Freakin unreal. xsmhx

FUGameBreaker

October 2nd, 2019, 09:15 AM

I doubt that will have any bearing on the selection process this year. The selection committee has enough to take into consideration and worry about from this year than to bring last year's conference playoff performance into the picture.

Maybe so, do you know who the head of the selection committee will be this year? Will it be the SLC commissioner again or someone different? That will probably play as big a role as anything because it darn sure did last year

Professor Chaos

October 2nd, 2019, 09:24 AM

Maybe so, do you know who the head of the selection committee will be this year? Will it be the SLC commissioner again or someone different? That will probably play as big a role as anything because it darn sure did last year
Greg Seitz - AD at Jacksonville State

FUGameBreaker

October 2nd, 2019, 09:28 AM

Greg Seitz - AD at Jacksonville State

Good xnodx

smilo

October 2nd, 2019, 09:41 AM

Greg Seitz - AD at Jacksonville State

Is he permitted to have a say in Jacksonville State discussion? For basketball - IIRC - you couldn't be in the room or had to be mum on discussions involving your school but not your conference.

JSU's expected and most likely outcome is 8-4 with 34% probability of exactly that record (likely 3rd/4th place place in the OVC). Hard to believe a team that far down the conference could be in the discussion but I suppose it's feasible with their OOC win!

FUGameBreaker

October 2nd, 2019, 09:43 AM

Is he permitted to have a say in Jacksonville State discussion? For basketball - IIRC - you couldn't be in the room or had to be mum on discussions involving your school but not your conference.

JSU's expected and most likely outcome is 8-4 with 34% probability of exactly that record (likely 3rd/4th place place in the OVC). Hard to believe a team that far down the conference could be in the discussion but I suppose it's feasible with their OOC win!

Lucky for them they don't have an FBS game this season

Professor Chaos

October 2nd, 2019, 09:49 AM

Is he permitted to have a say in Jacksonville State discussion? For basketball - IIRC - you couldn't be in the room or had to be mum on discussions involving your school but not your conference.

JSU's expected and most likely outcome is 8-4 with 34% probability of exactly that record (likely 3rd/4th place place in the OVC). Hard to believe a team that far down the conference could be in the discussion but I suppose it's feasible with their OOC win!
I believe the chairman has to abide by the rules of every other selection committee member (there's one from each conference who participates/has an autobid) and leave the room whenever his team or a team from his conference is discussed.

FUGameBreaker

October 2nd, 2019, 09:53 AM

I believe the chairman has to abide by the rules of every other selection committee member (there's one from each conference who participates/has an autobid) and leave the room whenever his team or a team from his conference is discussed.

Yet, we know there is much more to it than that

Professor Chaos

October 2nd, 2019, 10:01 AM

Yet, we know there is much more to it than that
You can concoct plenty of conspiracy theories if you want. It has seemed like JSU has gotten very generous seeds with their AD on the committee. There's been plenty of talk about how UNH always seemed to be on the right side of the coin flip when it came to at-large inclusion when their AD was on the committee.

I wouldn't doubt if it's just a passive bias where these guys develop friendships being on the same committee with each other where they spend a lot of time together in mid-November for 2-4 years in a row and they look favorably on their fellow committee member's school due to that friendship.

I'm sure they don't intentionally screw anyone over or give preferential treatment but they are inconsistent in what they give credit for to some schools and not to others and how they ding certain schools for resume blemishes but not others. I think it's just due to the natural biases we all have when forced to rank teams. I will say that those who rake the committee over the coals for over-regionalization have probably never tried to put together a mock bracket themselves using the constraints the committee has to abide by.

FUGameBreaker

October 2nd, 2019, 10:11 AM

Catbooster

October 2nd, 2019, 10:40 AM

After last year's SLC performance in the postseason, highly doubt it
I'm not sure their performance was worse than the CAA.

FUGameBreaker

October 2nd, 2019, 11:16 AM

I'm not sure their performance was worse than the CAA.

Maybe true
But still, 0-3 against scholarship football teams

MSUBobcat

October 2nd, 2019, 11:43 AM

Maybe true
But still, 0-3 against scholarship football teams

CAA had SIX teams and only one to win a game against another conference was seeded Maine who won 1 at home and 1 on the road before losing @ EWU. Total record vs other conferences, 2-5 (.286).
SLC had three teams and went 1-3 (.250).

For a supposed "power" conference, CAA **** their pants.

SoCon had 2 teams and went 1-2 (.333). Highly likely if Furman replaces UIW or Lamar, their playoff run ends in Bozeman or Cedar Falls anyway and SLC improves to .333 and SoCon drops to .250.

FUGameBreaker

October 2nd, 2019, 12:03 PM

Katfan

October 2nd, 2019, 12:32 PM

After last year's SLC performance in the postseason, highly doubt it
Would that limit the CAA to 1 bid?

smilo

October 2nd, 2019, 01:18 PM

CAA had SIX teams and only one to win a game against another conference was seeded Maine who won 1 at home and 1 on the road before losing @ EWU. Total record vs other conferences, 2-5 (.286).
SLC had three teams and went 1-3 (.250).

For a supposed "power" conference, CAA **** their pants.

SoCon had 2 teams and went 1-2 (.333). Highly likely if Furman replaces UIW or Lamar, their playoff run ends in Bozeman or Cedar Falls anyway and SLC improves to .333 and SoCon drops to .250.

In the past five years, the CAA has had Maine, Towson, UNH (x2), JMU, and Richmond (x2) make exceptionally unlikely runs including the only time someone was able to defeat NDSU.
The only circumstance of an un or underseeded SLC team making a deep run in recent history has involved Sam Houston State (x2).

Wouldn't doubt SHSU could do it again with their pedigree, but we'll wait-and-see on the others. The constant complaint is that the Colonial lost two true 50-50 games ON THE ROAD in one season (SEMO/SBU and JMU/Colgate), which is not particularly unexpected, and one team (Towson) absolutely dropped the ball physically and mentally. That was a statement on 2019 Towson not the Colonial after years of over-performance. The Elon team that ended the season did not belong in the playoff, but there were a lack of eligible teams. I couldn't even pretend to call that anything near a 50-50 game. (Same benefit goes to Lamar and Incarnate Word. At least Lamar showed up competitive.)

MSUBobcat

October 2nd, 2019, 02:20 PM

Nice try but nope, don't start count W/L's for games that never happened

We know you like to point out FU was not in the playoffs, so don't also count imaginary FU playoff games into your analysis lol

Only like to point it out every time you cry like a baby about the committee's decision last year, which is incessantly. When even your own fanbase wishes you'd shut up.....

Honest question, if Furman goes 6-6 this year and completely legitimately misses the playoffs, are you going to continue whining about 2018 all the way to the 2020 playoffs????

gofurman

October 2nd, 2019, 04:04 PM

You can concoct plenty of conspiracy theories if you want. It has seemed like JSU has gotten very generous seeds with their AD on the committee. There's been plenty of talk about how UNH always seemed to be on the right side of the coin flip when it came to at-large inclusion when their AD was on the committee.

I wouldn't doubt if it's just a passive bias where these guys develop friendships being on the same committee with each other where they spend a lot of time together in mid-November for 2-4 years in a row and they look favorably on their fellow committee member's school due to that friendship.

I'm sure they don't intentionally screw anyone over or give preferential treatment but they are inconsistent in what they give credit for to some schools and not to others and how they ding certain schools for resume blemishes but not others. I think it's just due to the natural biases we all have when forced to rank teams. I will say that those who rake the committee over the coals for over-regionalization have probably never tried to put together a mock bracket themselves using the constraints the committee has to abide by.

I put together an ACTUAL (was the one they used) basketball bracket that counted and purposefully LEFT MY SONS team out !!! And they probably belonged in ... That’s how it should be. Effing be objective. I got lots of nice emails from other teams on how they were shocked how objective I was. I researched in depth and did blind resumes. UNH can suck it. I don’t buy into this ‘we had beers together so help UNH and whichever conference went from a one bid league to three last year (southland I think?) and their guy was now the head of selection. He ought to avoid that ON PURPOSE. Heck, I know a Furman AD who tried to ‘hurt’ us constantly to avoid any impropriety. That’s how it should be. But it ain’t. UNH and the Lamar Incarnate Word was junk. And I do NOT advocate Furman in any way whatsoever here - take ISU or whomever. Just don’t give me this ****tty politics. It was so obvious last year and w UNH. Drop a southland and take ISU (not Furman)

ElCid

October 2nd, 2019, 04:25 PM

I put together an ACTUAL (was the one they used) basketball bracket that counted and purposefully LEFT MY SONS team out !!! And they probably belonged in ... That’s how it should be. Effing be objective. I got lots of nice emails from other teams on how they were shocked how objective I was. I researched in depth and did blind resumes. UNH can suck it. I don’t buy into this ‘we had beers together so help UNH and whichever conference went from a one bid league to three last year (southland I think?) and their guy was now the head of selection. He ought to avoid that ON PURPOSE. Heck, I know a Furman AD who tried to ‘hurt’ us constantly to avoid any impropriety. That’s how it should be. But it ain’t. UNH and the Lamar Incarnate Word was junk. And I do NOT advocate Furman in any way whatsoever here - take ISU or whomever. Just don’t give me this ****tty politics. It was so obvious last year and w UNH. Drop a southland and take ISU (not Furman)

Some people just don't care if the appearance of their decisions looks bad because it is all subjective and they can rationalize it away. With the human element involved you will always have some folks take advantage and some go out of their way to not take advantage. That is the primary reason that I like that there is an objective aspect to it, however small. That being, that conf champs get in regardless. That pisses some people off, but it takes power away from those who may abuse it.

gofurman

October 2nd, 2019, 07:27 PM

good point ElCid, some just don't care (not even talking about FCS just in general) that its somewhat transparent there was a bias. Its a shame.

smilo - i really appreciate this. you do a great job with this ! Thanks!

3. Furman (52%) @ Samford
Neither team really "needs" this to reach 8 wins, but after last season, I think Furman fans will want this one a little more. Samford has a much less tricky path to 8 wins while Furman has a non-counter and three tricky more tricky games, which they may need to sweep. A loss would leave little room for error after a promising start. By winning this game and the auto-bid, Samford is looking to avoid a potential bubble that could include multiple OVC teams that handled TTU and a 7-win YSU."

smilo I agree - on your write up here... Furman could lose this and that would be our first FCS loss so we would still be ok for the moment. If Furman loses it would be a loss to a Sam team that (circular logic but it is correct) has now beaten Wofford, prior top 25 Citadel, and top 15 Furman and that would probly leave us top 20 or whatever and we would just need to win most of our games on way out. Citadel will be tough but we have won both years w our new coach vs Citadel - he can stop option.. and that game is at Furman while this one, of course is at Samford. We would be favored in all the remaining games though Wofford on road is tough. Look at the great job our new coach Hendrix is doing. I think is worth repeating. And the difference of how we do v Samford xrolleyesx as opposed to Citadel ;)

CH at Furman is
3-0 v Mercer.
2-1 vs ETSU.
2-0 vs Western
2-0 vs VMI
2-0 vs Chatt
2-0 vs Cit

---
1-2 vs Wofford bc of playoff loss there. (that's the only other team where Hendrix has a losing record)
0-2 vs Samford

And that is with him starting with players who went 3-8 the year before he arrived !
so prior to his arrival we went 3 - 8 ... Then CH arrives:
2017 8-5 (from 8 losses to 8 wins with same guys who aren't even the right guys for his system!) - and made playoffs
2018 6-4 and SoCon champions
2019 ...

smilo

October 7th, 2019, 12:30 AM

We have back-to-back weeks of decline in teams meeting the benchmark, and it came with a big drop this week. Move over and make some room for 7-win teams from the Big Three. Thank you SELA, JSU, The Citadel, Samford - very kind! The FCS Podcast people are looking slightly more correct in their assessment of tons of at-larges for BSC/CAA/MVFC than in prior weeks though I think the data will still show they are slightly overstating it.

Big Sky - HUGE Shake-up week AGAIN! Our #1 Bubble Watch game was the 50-50 game it was hyped up to be giving life to UND hope to be the 4th bid at 7-4 and knocking out their opponent. UC-Davis retains mild hope of being a 7-5 team with the OOC challenges but it will be tough to even get to that. EWU on the other hand has started carving their gravestones as both preseason favourites are rather unlikely to make it in the first week of October. Despite a great OOC win and strong resume, the 3rd pick from preseason is still far from safe though a winnowing bubble should inspire confidence.
#2 Montana 94.30% (+11.66%)
#9 Montana State 85.58% (+8.21%)
#7 Weber State 59.84% (+4.98%)
#12 North Dakota 52.77% (TOP GAIN: +20.29%)
#11 Sacramento State 20.23% (+17.05%)
#13 UC-Davis 7.27% (-15.65%)
#21 Eastern Washington 4.50% (TOP DROP: -30.27%)
#33 Cal Poly 4.03% (-6.91%)
#22 Idaho State 2.92% (-4.84%)
#37 Portland State 2.63% (Would include two D2s)
#38 Northern Arizona 2.08%
#31 Idaho 0.65% (-4.74%)

Colonial - Out lowest ranked Bubble Watch game has some implications for teams in the league who play UNH or Elon. While UNH is getting love from poll voters (I had them ranked preseason only to be disappointed early!), it is still difficult to see them getting to 7-4 (either cannibalizing or pulling a big upset). Wouldn't be surprised if they ruined it for someone (Maine?) to eek out a winning record though. The Holy Cross loss stings for the conference. Beyond UNH, it is the same story here, and the CAA looks as if it could be the beneficiary of multiple 7-win teams. Delaware is the frontunner though Towson is a contender if they too should fall short. Maine really needs the bubble to be very weak.
#8 Villanova 99.81%
#4 James Madison 99.72%
#19 Stony Brook 57.35% (TOP DROP: -6.32%)
#14 Towson 53.80% (-2.68%)
#16 Delaware 45.45% (+3.49%)
#28 Maine 17.62% (-4.05%)
#30 New Hampshire 14.62% (TOP GAIN: +8.57%)
#40 Elon 1.00% (TOP DROP: -5.11%)
#68 Albany 0.48% (-2.55%)
#59 William & Mary 0.07% ELIMINATED

MVFC - Psychologically, the good news for Illinois State is that it will just be one game they were going to lose anyway and the rest of the games are independent variables. This still has the feel of a four bid league. ISU-r could get stuck as the final team on the bubble, but they will need at least a road win next week. I previously cited UNI as the top 7-5 at-large candidate, but I think I will start referring to them as a likely 8-win team even if Massey is not at more likely-than-not quite yet.
#1 North Dakota State 100.00% LOCK
#3 South Dakota State 97.23%
#15 Youngstown State 57.41% (TOP DROP: -11.09%)
#10 Northern Iowa 44.88% (TOP GAIN: +16.58%)
#24 Illinois State 25.83% (-8.50%)
#36 Southern Illinois 2.83%
#34 South Dakota 0.52% BACK FROM THE DEAD
#57 Indiana State 0.15%

OVC (9 wins) - I ran the Jacksonville State final win total distribution last week, and I just didn't see them getting onto the bubble. They now have no good win with EWU being awful. It's getting harder to budget for an at-large here though it wouldn't be a complete surprise. TTU now owns the most important H2H OOC win if they want an at-large, and I think they are criminally underrated in Massey.
#32 Southeast Missouri State 38.90%
#39 Jacksonville State 30.55% (TOP DROP: -4.68%)
#52 Austin Peay 18.80%
#60 Tennessee Tech 8.38%
#44 UT-Martin 3.69% (+2.85%)
#81 Eastern Kentucky 0.25%
#84 Murray State 0.20% Back from the dead???

Southern - So much for Samford stealing the auto-bid. Like ISU-r, they could be well-positioned for an at-large if they shake this off and take care of business. Wofford becomes the frontrunner for spot #2 largely because The Citadel was their tipping point team though I believe a game at The Citadel (and frankly even beating UTC) is not something to be assumed so easily. Looks more like a one bid league.
#17 Furman 96.93% (+18.31%)
#43 Wofford 45.14% (TOP GAIN: +20.78%)
#45 Samford 18.97% (TOP DROP: -28.86%)
#54 Chattanooga 7.07% (+4.22%)
#64 The Citadel 1.00% (-22.75%)
#82 VMI 0.27% Back from the dead?
#79 ETSU <0.1% ELIMINATED
#91 Mercer 0.0% ELIMINATED

Southland - And as I answered last week, we already have our first upset of the Top 4. Nicholls really tried hard to punch their ticket and Sam Houston is the likeliest of all. While the Bears have quite the resume, they also have to navigate some landmines without unexpectedly falling victim twice.
#18 Nicholls State 72.42% (-4.81%) - yes, minus.
#26 Sam Houston State 66.11% (TOP GAIN: +26.28%)
#25 Central Arkansas 59.85% (-16.90%)
#35 Southeastern Louisiana 56.16 (TOP DROP: -22.27%)
#48 Incarnate Word 15.07% (+6.36%)
#47 McNeese State 7.54% (+5.05%)
#69 Houston Baptist 5.12% (-7.66%)
#67 Lamar 3.88%
#56 Abilene Christian 0.0% (-2.52%) ELIMINATED

I hope the Bubble Watch will be posted tomorrow.

Mocs123

October 7th, 2019, 06:19 AM

Is there any reason the SoCon list is missing VMI and Western Carolina? I mean after the loss to Gardner-Webb we want to forget they are there too, but they're still there. :)

Daytripper

October 7th, 2019, 06:28 AM

Could the SLC be a 4 bid league? Seems like they'll get at least 3. The SOCON and OVC's losses might be their gain.

I think it's possible. Nicholls looks like a lock. SELA also looks pretty good. They other two spots would be UCA and SHSU. UCA will need to bounce back this week from their beatdown at the hands of Nicholls. If they don't they could be in a free-fall. Sam is looking better every week. Their two losses are to an FBS (which they should have won) and a seemingly very good UND team. Following Lamar this week, The Bearkats face Nicholls and UCA in consecutive weeks. That will determine whether they are in the playoffs.

FUBeAR

October 7th, 2019, 06:38 AM

Is there any reason the SoCon list is missing VMI and Western Carolina? I mean after the loss to Gardner-Webb we want to forget they are there too, but they're still there. :)
I believe they are ‘removed’ after they are ‘eliminated’ in this calculation. VMI & WCU were previously ‘eliminated.’ So, Mercer & ETSU will not appear in the SoCon list next week.

BEAR

October 7th, 2019, 09:43 AM

I think it's possible. Nicholls looks like a lock. SELA also looks pretty good. They other two spots would be UCA and SHSU. UCA will need to bounce back this week from their beatdown at the hands of Nicholls. If they don't they could be in a free-fall. Sam is looking better every week. Their two losses are to an FBS (which they should have won) and a seemingly very good UND team. Following Lamar this week, The Bearkats face Nicholls and UCA in consecutive weeks. That will determine whether they are in the playoffs.

There are things going on behind the scenes that are destroying UCA from within. It's the reason you see them struggle with all the talent they have on the team. Changes have to happen NOW or even a winning season may be out of reach for the first time in decades.

Daytripper

October 7th, 2019, 10:26 AM

There are things going on behind the scenes that are destroying UCA from within. It's the reason you see them struggle with all the talent they have on the team. Changes have to happen NOW or even a winning season may be out of reach for the first time in decades.

Wow. That's too bad. When you say "changes" are you talking about HC or AD or something else?

BEAR

October 7th, 2019, 10:31 AM

Wow. That's too bad. When you say "changes" are you talking about HC or AD or something else?

Lets just say if the head coach doesn't make some changes soon he will lose players. If they end up staying after this year they may be suiting up but they will not be IN the game so to speak. I just don't understand how the pig curse could crawl it's way down to Conway. All us fans can do is watch. It's ugly and the other SLC teams will benefit from this unnecessary distraction. You'll see when you play us. Just watch the sidelines. Look at the players faces.

smilo

October 7th, 2019, 12:14 PM

Is there any reason the SoCon list is missing VMI and Western Carolina? I mean after the loss to Gardner-Webb we want to forget they are there too, but they're still there. :)

Thanks for the heads up! VMI's upset actually brought them to greater than 0.1% chance, so I added them with 0.27% :) Given that The Army is statistically a guaranteed loss, it will require beating Furman on the road (9%) and two bubble teams, but I am happy we can still hold out hope for the little guy!

I did have it correct in my spreadsheet but the process of updating a prior post at 1:30 AM caused me to overlook adding them back. XD

smilo

October 7th, 2019, 10:35 PM

The Bubble Watch winners from the top three games last week (UND/UNI/Furman) really moved the odds for both themselves and their opponents. Game #5 (Nicholls State) proved to be another important win for the favourite for the opposite reason I suspected whereas Weber's odds did not budge very much from winning Game #4.

You have to go all the way down to Games 8/9 (EWU/SLU) to find the upsets that these percentages indicate should, on average, be happening some of the time, and boy, did those move the picture!

Onward to October 12 Massey Bubble Watch! We have six super-critical games featuring nine bubble teams - some need the upset, some are fighting each other in play-in battles and Delaware and The Brook are fighting off tough but manageable opponents standing in the way of them and a firm 'In' position. We also have four games that have the potential to move the needle with the right outcome.

1. Southeast Missouri State (54%) @ Austin Peay
The division title may be at stake for Austin Peay while SEMO still wants to prove it deserves at-large consideration should the Gamecocks stand in their way. The winner isn't punching their ticket, but this will go a long way!

2. Illinois State (49%) @ Southern Illinois
Illinois State is near their last lifeline. Will the injuries force them to succumb to a Bubble Out team on the road and limit the MVFC to four true contenders? This would be a major blow. SIU still has a ways to go, but their hopes require a win too.

3. UNH (33%) @ Stony Brook
UNH snuck back into the playoff picture and is projected to win one of its next three games on average. Unfortunately, it will probably take two wins just to get to a 50-50 shot. Stony Brook will move back north of 60% with a win.

4. North Dakota (41%) @ Idaho State
North Dakota returns near the top of Bubble Watch as a ranked road underdog. A loss here means that the only serious path requires UND to win @Cal Poly and against Montana State, which Massey views as easier games (agree to disagree, data!) I'd call this Must Win for the Big Sky's fourth bid after they knocked Davis out of the picture!

5. Delaware (64%) @ Elon
Delaware's odds increased by six percentage points this week with Elon getting exposed. A win here will finally move Delaware north of 50% probability and allow them to move to the front of the at-large pool the following week when they host New Hampshire.

6. Sacramento State (35%) @ Montana State
Sac State moved the line NINE percentage points with a blowout upset last week! They are still pretty far off the bubble since it would be harder to draw up a tougher remaining conference schedule. This will let us know if they are worth watching going forward. Could supplant UND as the potential #4 team if they pull off the road upset instead.
---
7. Incarnate Word (25%) @ Southeastern Louisiana
SLU returns home looking to get back on track. A win won't move the needle much since the schedule is all about November though a loss would turn them into a bubble out team that will need a fantastic finish. Incarnate Word is similarly positioned to Sacramento State though they seem far more likely to see their faint chance disappear this week.

8. South Dakota State (75%) @ Youngstown State
This game is very unlikely to move the needle in a downward direction. If Youngstown fails here as most expect, their true toss-up game determining 'probable' fate will be in Carbondale next week.

9. Jacksonville State (77%) @ Eastern Illinois
Road games are road games and Jacksonville State is Jacksonville State. Every game below 95% for the next likely opportunity for them to be knocked out.

10. Northern Iowa (5%) @ North Dakota State
Lol at the odds. While UNI reaching 8 wins is technically up in the air and could become a certainty with a win, I feel comfortable enough about their at-large prospects that this is unimportant for Bubble Watch purposes. Very important for other purposes!

Edit: Since I made the list last week, McNeese-UCA is in the same class as UIW-SELA. UCA down to a 74 percent favorite.

smilo

October 13th, 2019, 11:36 PM

I am at a loss for words after last week. Heading into Week 5, we were up to 16.96 teams to meet the benchmarks. Last week, the playoff picture looked clear coming down to just a handful of games. And now, we are down to 15.09 teams to meet the benchmarks, and I have no clue how to fill the spots. That's why we play the games! 8-win OVC teams may be aplenty and the 7-win teams in the Big Sky will be jumping for joy. Will even that we enough?

Big Sky - Fewer teams projected to meet the benchmark this week (3.3). I'm sort of banking on not just a 4th team but a 5th team reaching 7-5, but it's really hard to find at this point. North Dakota would not be a part of that discussion with just 11 games (need to beat Montana State to meet benchmark). Portland State would definitely not be part that discussion with 2 D2s. Idaho State would probably not be a part of that discussion with the D2 win (chances mostly rely on beating Weber State). Unless one of those two supplant MSU/Weber and knock them into a 7-5 fifth place, the chances of a 7-5 team largely rely on UC-Davis which needs to beat two of Sac State/Weber/MSU to get there. EWU has to take care of serious business on the road, but they may actually be the most likely despite being the weakest team! Eight, and arguably nine (PSU), have a lot of reason to believe but more often than not, these teams still need eight wins.
#2 Montana 96.29%
#6 Sacramento State 58.33% (TOP GAIN: +38.10%)
#13 Montana State 58.18% (TOP DROP: -27.40%)
#8 Weber State 48.20% (-11.64%)
#19 North Dakota 30.09% (-22.68%)
#12 Idaho State 13.06% (+10.14%)
#23 Portland State 12.33% (+9.70%) (Would include two D2s)
#11 UC-Davis 7.68%
#21 Eastern Washington 2.80%
#33 Cal Poly 1.33% (-2.70%)
#41 Northern Arizona 1.19%
#36 Idaho 0.00% ELIMINATED

Colonial - No one hurt themselves more than the Colonial this week, and my prediction has dropped to include just three teams. There is hope for some teams like the Stony Brook if they can get to 7, but with one of the weakest schedules, they will need help from the Big Sky and OVC failing to get teams with 7 and 8 D1 wins, respectively. UNH needs to beat either Villanova or @ Delaware. Delaware can probably get in by beating either UNH or SBU (I tend to think injuries have taken a toll on Towson so assuming a win there.) Towson has a lot of permutations to get them to seven, but I question whether that is enough.
#4 James Madison 99.97%
#10 Villanova 99.16%
#18 New Hampshire 49.76% (Back-to-back TOP GAIN: +35.14%)
#27 Stony Brook 30.68%
#28 Elon 12.44% (+11.44%)
#43 Albany 11.13% (+10.65%) - what...
#30 Delaware 10.96% (-34.49%)
#31 Towson 9.85% (TOP DROP: -43.95%)
#52 Maine 0.45% (-17.17%)

MVFC - Illinois State has recovered quickly. Should feel relatively good about exactly five teams. Will continue to monitor for any upsets and 7-win sleepers.
#1 North Dakota State 100.00% LOCK
#3 South Dakota State 99.12%
#14 Illinois State 58.21% (TOP GAIN: +32.38%)
#17 Youngstown State 47.74% (Back-to-back TOP DROP: -9.67%)
#9 Northern Iowa 43.42%
#40 Southern Illinois 0.06% (-2.77%)
#25 South Dakota 1.68%
#55 Indiana State 0.21%

OVC (9 wins) - If TTU was criminally underrated last week....well, I will still consider there to be five very serious contenders but Massey sees four. The nine win benchmark is exceptionally high in hindsight given the actual results. While we are used to a dominant team and an at-large needing to beat the rest, there is much more parity this year. I am currently preparing for three bids right now making the below odds mostly garbage. With so few teams meeting the benchmarks, 8 wins from a power conference team will be enough.
#51 Austin Peay 35.55% (TOP GAIN: +16.75%)
#44 Jacksonville State 33.19% (+2.64%)
#32 UT-Martin 13.48% (+9.79%)
#32 Southeast Missouri State 11.39% (TOP DROP: -27.51%)
#79 Tennessee Tech 0.94% (-7.44%)
#71 Murray State 0.81%
#82 Eastern Kentucky 0.46%

Southern - It looks officially to be a 50-50 shot at a second bid requiring Wofford to run the table, which may be in doubt until the final day of the season. Disappointing year for the SoCon with so many at-large spots available to be claimed.
#15 Furman 97.37%
#47 Wofford 45.02%
#59 Chattanooga 6.60%
#68 VMI 2.15%
#63 The Citadel 1.09%
#62 Samford 0.00% (TOP DROP: -18.97%) ELIMINATED

Southland - SELA keeps losing so at least I was able to forecast something right. SHSU has joined them, but they can thank the Incarnate Word's odds jump for limiting how bad this was relative to the Colonial as well as UCA for avoiding one of their biggest traps. This remains solidly at 2.5 bids.
#20 Central Arkansas 72.99%
#22 Nicholls State 66.17% (-6.25%)
#35 Incarnate Word 40.78% (TOP GAIN: +25.71%)
#34 Sam Houston State 35.05% (TOP DROP: -41.87%)
#42 Southeastern Louisiana 21.15% (-35.01%)
#53 Lamar 16.98% (+13.10%)
#50 McNeese State 3.10% (-4.44%)
#67 Houston Baptist 2.38% (-2.74%)

Professor Chaos

October 14th, 2019, 07:26 AM

Suprising to see Weber St's percentage so low but it makes sense since their only remaining game against a sub-.500 team is against UC Davis who isn't your garden variety 3-4 team. They've got NAU, @UC Davis, @Sac St, UND, @Montana, Idaho St. You'd think they could win 4 of those but a 4-2 finish knocks them out of the seeds most likely.

Delaware also looks to be in trouble at 3-3 with their remaining schedule of UNH, Richmond, @Towson, Albany, Stony Brook, @Villanova. They'd do well to win 4 of those but 7-5 would be pretty shaky. I don't think any team outside of the MVFC has gotten an at-large with 5 losses.

cx500d

October 14th, 2019, 07:48 AM

MayorOfHenTown

October 14th, 2019, 08:36 AM

If Delaware keeps playing Kehoe they are doomed

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Unfortunately, you are correct. Kehoe is just too slow, whether it be his dropback or his progression through the play. He's just so slow in all aspects of the game. I really wish Delaware would have started redshirt freshman QB Anthony Paoletti instead of Kehoe in the Elon game. And DR needs to start putting RB Will Knight in for more touches. Knight averages 8.4 yards per carry, but only has 41 carries...THAT'S ONLY ABOUT 7 PER GAME! Like feed him coach!!

Hopefully Henderson can get healthy by Saturday, otherwise Delaware may be in trouble due to DR's lack of ability to adapt make changes quickly.

Gangtackle11

October 14th, 2019, 08:40 AM

Unfortunately, you are correct. Kehoe is just too slow, whether it be his dropback or his progression through the play. He's just so slow in all aspects of the game. I really wish Delaware would have started redshirt freshman QB Anthony Paoletti instead of Kehoe in the Elon game. And DR needs to start putting RB Will Knight in for more touches. Knight averages 8.4 yards per carry, but only has 41 carries...THAT'S ONLY ABOUT 7 PER GAME! Like feed him coach!!

Hopefully Henderson can get healthy by Saturday, otherwise Delaware may be in trouble due to DR's lack of ability to adapt make changes quickly.

I hope he is too, but after seeing that hit to his head & how long it took for him to get up it’s doubtful he plays for a bit. The kid’s safety is the only concern. xpeacex

caribbeanhen

October 14th, 2019, 10:19 AM

Unfortunately, you are correct. Kehoe is just too slow, whether it be his dropback or his progression through the play. He's just so slow in all aspects of the game. I really wish Delaware would have started redshirt freshman QB Anthony Paoletti instead of Kehoe in the Elon game. And DR needs to start putting RB Will Knight in for more touches. Knight averages 8.4 yards per carry, but only has 41 carries...THAT'S ONLY ABOUT 7 PER GAME! Like feed him coach!!

Hopefully Henderson can get healthy by Saturday, otherwise Delaware may be in trouble due to DR's lack of ability to adapt make changes quickly.

I think you mean you wish Delaware played Paoletti after Henderson got hurt, Kehoe didn't start that game and would never start another one if it was not for the injury to Henderson..... totally agree we should of seen another QB

MSUBobcat

October 14th, 2019, 10:45 AM

Bit surprised to see that MSU is only 58.18%. We have 2 weeks to prepare for a UND team that loses (badly) whenever the opposition runs for 200+ yards, and we average 247/game. Then we have a bad SUU at home, followed by a terrible Northern Colorado on the road. If we aren't at 8 wins after our next 3 games, something has gone horribly, horribly wrong. Then we travel to face a UC Davis team that IDK what to think of them anymore. Maybe a toss up on that. Finally, we host the Brawl. Clearly, UM seems like they should kick our ass all over the field, but in this game, records and stats seem to matter little. I'd put it at about 75-80% to hit 8 wins, maybe 58.18% to hit 9 wins. Chances to run the table maybe 10-20%.

Professor Chaos

October 14th, 2019, 11:00 AM

MSUBobcat

October 14th, 2019, 12:17 PM

Massey still really likes UND for some reason. Has them at #19 and Montana St at #13. Only gives Montana St a 3 point cushion and 57% probability to win when I think most of us would peg the Bobcats as bigger favorites than that.

Welp.... that explains the math. Not sure I agree with it, as I put it closer to 70% and SUU/UNC at around 85% each, but hey... no one is paying me for my rankings, so Massey's got that over me.

F'N Hawks

October 14th, 2019, 12:39 PM

UND loses badly....on the road. They are probably the worst road team in the country. Pretty obvious looking at their schedule and results thus far. They look completely different at home.

MSUBobcat

October 14th, 2019, 01:05 PM

F'N Hawks

October 14th, 2019, 01:19 PM

You still say home vs. road, I still say rushing teams vs. passing teams. Not counting Drake, cuz... why would ya, they lost to Truman State.... UND has 2 home victories by a combined SIX points, and one was on a very late FG. No way to say for sure, but I'd postulate that if both Sam and especially Davis focused a tiny bit more on the run, those games turn out different. Davis had the ball 9 minutes less than UND. A few extra rushes in the 2nd half and the Sioux barely get the ball back with any time after the go ahead TD/2 pt conversion. Both are valid hypotheses and won't be resolved this week either, unless UND wins on the road vs. Poly, which would throw a wrench in both theories with a ROAD win vs. a RUNNING team.

If you haven't watched UND on the road vs at home then you shouldn't speak to how they play. You are trying to break it down to simply running vs not running teams. My point is they look completely different at home - much faster, sure of themselves, confident. On Saturday they looked like they were a deer in headlights on defense the entire game. At home they haven't looked like that at all - they at least show life.

Also - Sammy ran the ball 50 times for 162 yards. To me that is focusing on the run when you cannot pass.

UAalum72

October 14th, 2019, 01:44 PM

#43 Albany 11.13% (+10.65%) - what...

That's how math works. This is only about getting to eight wins, not being selected as an at-large.

Last week Albany was at 0.48% (1 chance in 200) to win 5 of the last 6 games, but after beating Towson they only need to win 4 of the last 5. That's still only 1 chance in 9, but probably slightly favored at home in the next two, and not prohibitive dogs in the last three. Just got to play them out.

smilo

October 20th, 2019, 06:40 PM

Big Sky - The conference remains solidly as a 4.5 bid league even with uncertainty for Weber and Montana State. The sole serious candidate for the potential fifth bid appears to be (per the last page) a controversial candidate in North Dakota whose chances hinge on being a home favourite this week against higher-rated Montana State in a game the Bobcats do not need to win to get into the field. Sac State's meteoric rise has dealt a blow to UC-Davis' hopes by toughening the schedule that much more. We will know a lot about the Aggies' fate after this week's game against higher-rated Weber State, and then they would still need wins as a road underdog against Portland State to give themselves a 50-50 shot.
#4 Sacramento State 89.61% (Back-to-back TOP GAIN: +31.28%)
#5 Montana 84.36% (-11.93%)
#13 Montana State 61.45% (+3.27%)
#8 Weber State 56.63% (+8.43%)
#15 North Dakota 56.02% (+25.93%)
#17 Portland State 19.72% (+7.39%) (Would include two D2s)
#16 Eastern Washington 4.53%
#11 UC-Davis 4.48% (-3.20%)
#48 Northern Arizona 0.26%
#18 Idaho State 0.63% (TOP DROP: -12.43%)
#44 Cal Poly 0.00% ELIMINATED

Colonial - While it feels like a two bid league, someone is going to have to win the bubble games, so a third team will reach the benchmark, and almost certainly, a "good enough" 7-5 team will emerge as a fourth bid. My money remains on Delaware for the latter. The former might actually feel like Towson despite Massey's disagreement, but Albany would not surprise me. I really don't know aside from the number of bids.
#3 James Madison 100.0% LOCK
#10 Villanova 99.38%
#25 Stony Brook 25.52% (-5.16%)
#38 Albany 22.65% (TOP GAIN: +11.52%)
#21 New Hampshire 19.85% (TOP DROP: -29.91%)
#22 Delaware 19.48% (+8.52%)
#24 Towson 14.08%
#26 Elon 13.12%
#52 Maine 0.00% ELIMINATED

MVFC - I had predicted it for weeks - and then things felt different this year, but Youngstown's annual free fall has finally arrived. Sometimes you just can't predict when even if you know it is coming. Despite an amazing performance against SDSU momentarily tricking me, the MVFC has peaked and is now down to projection of 4.5 bids again thanks to YSU. We won't know exactly where their playoff chances stand for at least three weeks barring the unimaginable happening. SIU could still sneak in, but they will need to run the table of winnable games, the toughest of which is at South Dakota next week. A win could bring us closer to five solid bids.
#1 North Dakota State 100.00% LOCK
#2 South Dakota State 100.0% LOCK Correction: 99.52%
#12 Illinois State 71.29% (Back-to-back TOP GAIN: +13.08%)
#9 Northern Iowa 50.42%
#30 Youngstown State 12.27% (Back-to-back-to-back TOP DROP: -35.47%)
#33 Southern Illinois 0.46% - I intentionally did not say 'eliminated' last week despite reaching that territory, but they would be consider 'back from the dead'.
#55 Indiana State 0.07% ELIMINATED
#34 South Dakota 0.06% ELIMINATED

OVC (9 wins) - It's uncertain whether any team gets to nine wins still, but miraculously, the conference remains at 2.5 bids because of the futility of other leagues. APSU did not do themselves any favors in trying to claim an at-large, but they may not need it thanks to tiebreakers - so long at they beat UTM. The most interesting conference title race at the FCS level!
#39 Southeast Missouri State 27.06% (TOP GAIN: +15.67%)
#35 UT-Martin 16.21% (+2.73%)
#50 Jacksonville State 9.58% (-23.61%)
#66 Austin Peay 5.20% (TOP DROP: -30.35%)
#67 Eastern Kentucky 1.70%
#75 Tennessee Tech 1.29%
#81 Murray State 0.00% ELIMINATED

Southern - The Citadel helps the league inch closer to being a two bid league but isn't quite there yet and remains closer to 1.5. Wofford-The Citadel in the season finale has the potential to be a play-in game under the big assumption that both are able to take care of Chattanooga along with some other business. No sure things! Crazy that Samford has wins against both, but the losses to OOC 'bubble teams' look worse and worse, so I can't see any way they are in the picture at 7-5 (6-2) unless the bubble deteriorates much further.
#28 Furman 80.15% (TOP DROP: -17.22%)
#45 Wofford 47.40%
#43 The Citadel 14.88% (TOP GAIN: +13.79%)
#53 Chattanooga 9.35% (+2.75%)
#74 VMI 0.05% ELIMINATED

Southland - Nicholls' loss moves the conference closer to 2.5 than 3, which is here I said it was last week. But no one is a sure thing just yet. SHSU could punch it next week or alternatively, UCA can come extremely close to punching it.
#31 Sam Houston State 67.15% (TOP GAIN: +32.10%)
#19 Central Arkansas 65.50% (-7.49%)
#29 Nicholls State 38.82% (TOP DROP: -27.35%)
#36 Incarnate Word 35.10% (-5.68%)
#42 Southeastern Louisiana 25.45% (-4.30%)
#54 Lamar 5.87% (-11.11%)
#47 McNeese State 5.10%
#71 Houston Baptist 0.38%

In sum, those bid totals give you (a little more than) 19.5. Now have to leave half a bid free for #20 NC A&T and perhaps the #77 Campbell/#56 Monmouth winner (should they also beat #14 Kennesaw).

F'N Hawks

October 26th, 2019, 03:46 PM

If you haven't watched UND on the road vs at home then you shouldn't speak to how they play. You are trying to break it down to simply running vs not running teams. My point is they look completely different at home - much faster, sure of themselves, confident. On Saturday they looked like they were a deer in headlights on defense the entire game. At home they haven't looked like that at all - they at least show life.

Also - Sammy ran the ball 50 times for 162 yards. To me that is focusing on the run when you cannot pass.

Like I said, home vs. road. Completely different team.

MSU fans may want to revisit how powerful their rushing attack really is.

nodak651

October 28th, 2019, 01:22 PM

Patiently waiting for this to be updated. Appreciate your work, smilo!

MSUBobcat

October 28th, 2019, 01:43 PM

Like I said, home vs. road. Completely different team.

MSU fans may want to revisit how powerful their rushing attack really is.

Seriously, Clark? 219 yards on 39 carries for 5.6 ypc, net. 239 on 35 attempts for 6.8 ypc excluding the 4 sacks. If you think the rushing attack was the problem.... you really gotta watch more football. If Travis Jonsen doesn't whiff on that busted coverage long pass, he walks in for a TD. Who knows how the butterfly effect plays out the rest of the game, but I didn't get the impression that UND was the better team and many of us feel like we really let that one slip away. That's definitely a game we'd like to have back.

clenz

October 28th, 2019, 02:06 PM

Seriously, Clark? 219 yards on 39 carries for 5.6 ypc, net. 239 on 35 attempts for 6.8 ypc excluding the 4 sacks. If you think the rushing attack was the problem.... you really gotta watch more football. If Travis Jonsen doesn't whiff on that busted coverage long pass, he walks in for a TD. Who knows how the butterfly effect plays out the rest of the game, but I didn't get the impression that UND was the better team and many of us feel like we really let that one slip away. That's definitely a game we'd like to have back.
IIRC he was the same one that thought trying to win the LOS vs NDSU wasn't important and was overrated for UND to do well.....so....take it for what you want with him.

F'N Hawks

October 28th, 2019, 02:09 PM

IIRC he was the same one that thought trying to win the LOS vs NDSU wasn't important and was overrated for UND to do well.....so....take it for what you want with him.
That's certainly one way to frame what I said. How did UNI's powerful, MVFC DL do against the NDSU rushing game? Compare for us.

F'N Hawks

October 28th, 2019, 02:12 PM

Seriously, Clark? 219 yards on 39 carries for 5.6 ypc, net. 239 on 35 attempts for 6.8 ypc excluding the 4 sacks. If you think the rushing attack was the problem.... you really gotta watch more football. If Travis Jonsen doesn't whiff on that busted coverage long pass, he walks in for a TD. Who knows how the butterfly effect plays out the rest of the game, but I didn't get the impression that UND was the better team and many of us feel like we really let that one slip away. That's definitely a game we'd like to have back.

LOL.

MSU had 97 yards on two long runs. Then 33 carries for 122 yards against a bunch of freshman and sophomores that weigh 230 pounds. I would say you overvalue the Cats rushing ability.

clenz

October 28th, 2019, 02:17 PM

That's certainly one way to frame what I said. How did UNI's powerful, MVFC DL do against the NDSU rushing game? Compare for us.
Not great.

Did pretty damn good against Idaho State.

How'd your defense do in that game?

F'N Hawks

October 28th, 2019, 02:20 PM

Not great.

Did pretty damn good against Idaho State.

How'd your defense do in that game?

Not great at all.

clenz

October 28th, 2019, 02:23 PM

Not great at all.
So what you're saying is there can be outliers for a single game?

Got it

Now, when it starts to happen multiple times over a season is could be an issue. Right?

F'N Hawks

October 28th, 2019, 02:26 PM

So what you're saying is there can be outliers for a single game?

Got it

Now, when it starts to happen multiple times over a season is could be an issue. Right?

If it happens again on the road then yes. It doesn't happen at home, as I pointed out. He didn't believe that so it took playing the game and MSU scoring 10 points for me to prove my point.

It's a trend: just like every year when UNI plays NDSU and gives up 350+ rushing yards a game.

clenz

October 28th, 2019, 03:12 PM

If it happens again on the road then yes. It doesn't happen at home, as I pointed out. He didn't believe that so it took playing the game and MSU scoring 10 points for me to prove my point.

It's a trend: just like every year when UNI plays NDSU and gives up 350+ rushing yards a game.
Odd...because that didn't happen in
2018
2017
2016
2015 regular season
2015 post season
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008

AAMOF UNI has held NDSU to 170 or less in like 10 of the 13 games
Hell, UNI has hled NDSU to under 100 yards rushing like 3 times.
Extra hell - UNI has held NDSU to NEGATIVE 40 yards rushing in a game.

But...yeah...a trend.

Also since you wanted to talk about single plays...NDSU was under 300 until NDSU does what NDSU does better than anyone and making sure to add up yards and points late in the game when it's already over....

But...you know...a trend.

F'N Hawks

October 28th, 2019, 03:15 PM

Odd...because that didn't happen in
2018
2017
2016
2015 regular season
2015 post season
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008

AAMOF UNI has held NDSU to 170 or less in like 10 of the 13 games
Hell, UNI has hled NDSU to under 100 yards rushing like 3 times.
Extra hell - UNI has held NDSU to NEGATIVE 40 yards rushing in a game.

But...yeah...a trend.

Also since you wanted to talk about single plays...NDSU was under 300 until NDSU does what NDSU does better than anyone and making sure to add up yards and points late in the game when it's already over....

But...you know...a trend.

You're right, UNI stifled them all day to the tune of only 344 yards last year. Figured you'd bite on that.

clenz

October 28th, 2019, 03:22 PM

You're right, UNI stifled them all day to the tune of only 344 yards last year. Figured you'd bite on that.
Bite on what?

I used your criteria.

Redbird 4th & short

October 28th, 2019, 03:39 PM

So maybe we should just look at year to date rushing defense rankings .. all 8 games average .. wonder what that will tell us ?

UND currently ranks 71st in rushing yards per play and 92nd in rushing yards per game. UNI ranks 10th in rushing yards per play and 26th in rushing yards per game. NDSU ranks 16th in rush yards per play (behind UNI) and 12th in rush yards per game. UNI has played the #2 SOS, while UND has played the #13 SOS

Not that anyone asked.. my ISUr ranks 17th in rush yards per play and 28th in rush yards per game.

here is link to data.

https://stats.ncaa.org/rankings/change_sport_year_div

F'N Hawks

October 28th, 2019, 03:44 PM

clenz

October 28th, 2019, 03:49 PM

MSUBobcat

October 28th, 2019, 03:49 PM

LOL.

MSU had 97 yards on two long runs. Then 33 carries for 122 yards against a bunch of freshman and sophomores that weigh 230 pounds. I would say you overvalue the Cats rushing ability.

So is it your postulate that teams with WEAK running offenses bust off long runs? Interesting... doesn't say much for UND's run defense, I suppose. Also, the other 33 CARRIES (not the sacks) went for 142 for an average of 4.3 ypc. If I'm averaging 4.3 ypc even AFTER taking out the long runs (for whatever crazy reason) I'm pretty okay with that performance. Especially when a full 1/3 of them came from with Jonsen and Anderson under center. They weren't even trying to fool UND and still ran for a solid clip. The rushing offense is NOT what cost us that game.

F'N Hawks

October 28th, 2019, 03:58 PM

So is it your postulate that teams with WEAK running offenses bust off long runs? Interesting... doesn't say much for UND's run defense, I suppose. Also, the other 33 CARRIES (not the sacks) went for 142 for an average of 4.3 ypc. If I'm averaging 4.3 ypc even AFTER taking out the long runs (for whatever crazy reason) I'm pretty okay with that performance. Especially when a full 1/3 of them came from with Jonsen and Anderson under center. They weren't even trying to fool UND and still ran for a solid clip. The rushing offense is NOT what cost us that game.
Did you not spend a full week telling everyone about how bad UNDs run defense is, with stats and everything?

Then, MSU gets held to less than their season average by that ****ty run D full of skinny freshmen and now you're bragging?

C'mon. I expected MSU to run all over UND but they really didn't and scored (edit) 12 ****ing points.

FWIW, UNDs run defense isn't very good but we don't need to fabricate what really happened. NDSU rushed for 266 yards and everyone acted like it was the rushing romp of the century. Turns out they do that to alot of teams, some worse than others.

Lorne_Malvo

October 28th, 2019, 05:37 PM

Its always so adorable when UND fans try to talk football.

MSUBobcat

October 28th, 2019, 05:41 PM

Did you not spend a full week telling everyone about how bad UNDs run defense is, with stats and everything?

Then, MSU gets held to less than their season average by that ****ty run D full of skinny freshmen and now you're bragging?

C'mon. I expected MSU to run all over UND but they really didn't and scored (edit) 12 ****ing points.

FWIW, UNDs run defense isn't very good but we don't need to fabricate what really happened. NDSU rushed for 266 yards and everyone acted like it was the rushing romp of the century. Turns out they do that to alot of teams, some worse than others.

Bruh... If you think I'm bragging about that pathetic display.....xrotatehx They didn't play a good game at all, yet still rushed for 239 yards. I was expecting 250+ so not real far off. I also expected to be able to throw for a meek 150 yards. With no real threat from the passing game, our #1 back Logan Jones out and Ifanse, our 1,000 yard rusher from last year, just not looking the same since being injured (he had 1 attempt for 0 against Sac State and 5 for 10 yards Saturday), we turned to a freshman of our own to carry the load. He hasn't played since WIU and had 14 carries for 40 yards on the SEASON.

I stand by my assertion that UND's run defense is terrible, MSU's run offense is fairly strong (albeit a tad banged up) and that it had very little to do with to do with Saturday's debacle. Our main issue is we'd be better off putting a scarecrow in at QB than Rovig. IDK if Casey Bauman deserves another shot, or if maybe it's time to throw Ruben Beltran out there, but having a guy average 3 yards per pass attempt isn't going to win many games even running for 300 yards. Maybe if we were playing rugby...

Bison Fan in NW MN

October 29th, 2019, 05:58 AM

Seriously, Clark? 219 yards on 39 carries for 5.6 ypc, net. 239 on 35 attempts for 6.8 ypc excluding the 4 sacks. If you think the rushing attack was the problem.... you really gotta watch more football. If Travis Jonsen doesn't whiff on that busted coverage long pass, he walks in for a TD. Who knows how the butterfly effect plays out the rest of the game, but I didn't get the impression that UND was the better team and many of us feel like we really let that one slip away. That's definitely a game we'd like to have back.

I'm no fan of UND but I watched the replay of the MSU/UND game and the Cats have a ton of issues. QB situation is a joke and still is not anywhere near solved. MSU is a total paper tiger. But if they somehow squeak into the playoffs I hope they get funneled thru Fargo again because the game will be a repeat of last year or even worse.

AmsterBison

October 29th, 2019, 11:35 AM

MSUBobcat

October 29th, 2019, 01:55 PM

I'm no fan of UND but I watched the replay of the MSU/UND game and the Cats have a ton of issues. QB situation is a joke and still is not anywhere near solved. MSU is a total paper tiger. But if they somehow squeak into the playoffs I hope they get funneled thru Fargo again because the game will be a repeat of last year or even worse.

I haven't defended our QB play in the least. Quite the opposite. Somewhere I posted that we'd be better off with a scarecrow under center. Our game management at the end of halves/games is also highly suspect. I also said the only reason UND or MSU should even be considered a top 20 team is because the entirety of the FCS outside of about 6 teams seem to not want to win consistently. This is a down year for FCS in general, from what I've seen so far. But losing that pillow fight still left a bad taste in my mouth.

Bison Fan in NW MN

October 29th, 2019, 01:57 PM

Winner of UND v Montana State to Fargo for the second round?

A 7-4 UND will certainly get consideration this year. UND looks to being playing a little better but they will get rolled by the Bison in a rematch.

Could Montana State buyout out a playoff game versus the Bison?

xdontknowx

xlolx

BEAR

October 29th, 2019, 01:57 PM

Where's Smilo's stats? xeyebrowx

MSUBobcat

October 29th, 2019, 01:57 PM

Winner of UND v Montana State to Fargo for the second round?

I'm not sure the rules on that. From Big Sky perspective, it was a conference game even though UND is technically playing as an independent. I'd like a redo in Bozeman tho.....

MSUBobcat

October 29th, 2019, 01:58 PM

A 7-4 UND will certainly get consideration this year. UND looks to being playing a little better but they will get rolled by the Bison in a rematch.

Could Montana State buyout out a playoff game versus the Bison?

xdontknowx

xlolx

Man... that joke was barely funny last year. Way to dust it off and put it back into circulation.....xrolleyesx

Bison Fan in NW MN

October 29th, 2019, 02:01 PM

Man... that joke was barely funny last year. Way to dust it off and put it back into circulation.....xrolleyesx

My comment was nothing. Some of the signs in our section for last year's playoff game were great!

If MSU makes it back to Fargo in the future, those kind of signs will be on full display again.

Professor Chaos

October 29th, 2019, 02:09 PM

Winner of UND v Montana State to Fargo for the second round?
Doubt it, UND and Montana St are not within bussing distance of each other and the committee is supposed to avoid first round regular season rematches (even if they're not intra-conference rematches) unless it saves a flight.

smilo

October 29th, 2019, 09:22 PM

Thank you for the lively discussion! UND is always a hot topic around here.

We have the MVFC gaining half a bid and the Southland as our big loser. Here is your update entering Week 10

Big Sky - I still have the conference at 4.5 bids, but it can move steadily towards 5 if things play out according to plan. Weber is now considered an effective lock with 90% probability to defeat UND to get its eighth win should they fail on the road against its top 10 peers. UND is nearly a lock with one small test against SUU, but we all know about UND at home :) Montana will have a chance to lock up their spot with a win at Portland State this week (64%), which xould leave the final question mark as Montana State. It is very possible MSU can make it should they drop the top 2 - but it would be worse than a coin flip. Fortunately its playoff odds are probably better than 50% because they have a shot to steal one of those two.
#4 Sacramento State 95.84% (+6.23%)
#6 Montana 92.44% (+8.08%)
#7 Weber State 91.37% (TOP GAIN: +34.74%)
#14 North Dakota 78.59% (+22.57%)
#17 Montana State 42.04% (TOP DROP: -19.43%)
#25 Portland State 5.15% (-14.57%) (Would include two D2s)
#44 Northern Arizona 0.59%
#20 Eastern Washington 0.00% (-4.53%) ELIMINATED (technically a very good chance to still go 7-5, but with a D2 win, it's very difficult to see a scenario)
#12 UC-Davis 0.00% (-4.48%) ELIMINATED - Could get in at 7-5 by knocking out Montana State AND knocking off the top dogs.
#37 Idaho State 0.00% ELIMINATED

Colonial - Towson and Delaware really did a lot to help my last prediction look great...NOT. Elon @ Towson could wind up deciding a bid IF they take care of games that they should. Albany @ Stony Brook could end up settling the other. UNH has a do-or-die hosting Villanova. So much to play out here. Still likely a four bid league.
#3 James Madison 100.0% LOCK
#11 Villanova 97.56%
#18 Stony Brook 53.63% (TOP GAIN: +28.11%)
#19 Elon 29.06% (+15.94%)
#35 Albany 26.49% (+3.84%)
#26 New Hampshire 19.24%
#27 Towson 9.02% (-5.06%)
#39 Delaware 1.94% (TOP DROP: -17.54%)
#49 Richmond 0.17% Back from the Dead
#53 Maine 0.00% ELIMINATED - leaving them here since they have two FBS losses and a reasonable schedule but still a major longshot

MVFC - Just as I said last week, the SIU win bumps this from 4.5 bids to a very strong 5. A win next week will virtually assure a 7-5 finish with wins over UMass, UTM and YSU. YSU still has a lot to prove, but they are in the win column, and the USD game looks slightly easier.
#1 North Dakota State 100.00% LOCK
#2 South Dakota State 99.69% (mis-labeled as a lock last week. It was 99.52%)
#10 Illinois State 78.57% (+7.28%)
#9 Northern Iowa 55.25% (+4.82%)
#21 Youngstown State 20.78% (TOP GAIN: +8.51%)
#15 Southern Illinois 3.16%

OVC (9 wins) - EKU is an at-large longshot, but it still controls its own destiny with a backloaded schedule. SEMO is virtually assured of a bid even if they lose to EKU with an otherwise easy finish and a big OOC victory. APSU needs to take 2/3 from @EKU (47%), UTM (49%) and @Murray (59%). UTM needs to beat both APSU (51%) and JSU (72%). JSU needs to take 2/3 from EKU (59%), @UTM (28%) and @TTU (69%). I still believe APSU will nearly punch their ticket this week to leave UTM as the 50-50 chance. Flat at 2.5 bids.
#29 Southeast Missouri State 47.04% (Back-back TOP GAIN: +19.98%)
#54 Austin Peay 12.23% (+7.03%)
#50 Jacksonville State 11.40%
#56 Eastern Kentucky 4.52% (+2.82%)
#31 UT-Martin 0.00% (TOP DROP: -16.21%) Eliminated
#81 Tennessee Tech 0.00% ELIMINATED

Southern - No change from last week. Marching towards Wofford-Cit! Though Wofford could spice things up yet if they beat Furman first. Exciting things happening in the Palmetto State! Pumping this up to 1.75 bids. More than reasonable chance this could end up with three, but then the question comes what to do with SC State. Furman really needs to win out.
#22 Furman 82.97% (+2.82%)
#42 Wofford 59.73% (TOP GAIN: +12.33%)
#41 The Citadel 19.63% (+4.75%)
#57 Chattanooga 3.50% (TOP DROP: -5.85%)
#70 VMI 0.10% Back from the Dead x2

Southland - Technically only down from about 2.7 bids to 2.3, but I really think this is going to be two. SHSU, UIW, and Nicholls all really hurt themselves last week, and I still don't believe in a potential 7-4 SLU whose odds increase due to Nicholls' failures. Very pleased to have called 2 bids for the SLC early in the year :) Sam Houston could nearly lock up bid #2 with a win @ACU. I still don't count out McNeese for the second/third bid and am paying very close attention to the UIW-Nicholls possible elimination game.
#16 Central Arkansas 89.52% (TOP GAIN: +24.02%)
#32 Southeastern Louisiana 50.19% (+24.74%)
#36 Sam Houston State 39.69% (-27.46%)
#51 Incarnate Word 25.37% (-9.73%)
#38 McNeese State 19.98% (+14.88)
#29 Nicholls State 8.52% (Back-to-back TOP DROP: -30.30%)
#62 Lamar 3.82%
#79 Houston Baptist 0.00% ELIMINATED

smilo

October 29th, 2019, 09:56 PM

31190

I don't know exactly what I will do with all this data at the end because I am no data visualization expert, but planning on making a few graphs out of it. Open to any suggestions y'all have. Big Sky seemed like a very cool one to start with. Hopefully they are prettier by season end.

BEAR

October 30th, 2019, 08:33 AM

#16 Central Arkansas 89.52% (TOP GAIN: +24.02%)

Sorry but again what does the #16 mean? xeyebrowx

Professor Chaos

October 30th, 2019, 08:49 AM

#16 Central Arkansas 89.52% (TOP GAIN: +24.02%)

Sorry but again what does the #16 mean? xeyebrowx
I believe that's their Massey rating.

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/fcs/ratings

BEAR

October 30th, 2019, 09:52 AM

I believe that's their Massey rating.

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/fcs/ratings

Gotcha. xthumbsupx

smilo

October 30th, 2019, 09:55 AM

F'N Hawks

October 30th, 2019, 10:28 AM

Something I just noticed is that the Big Sky Conference has the top 14 'Home Field Advantages' on Massey ranging from from 4.6 to 7.3 points. That's either some flawed formulas, some crazy anomaly, or some very painful flights.

#3 is a real thing. Flying to the west coast (UND) or flying to the midwest (everyone else) and losing/gaining up to 2 hours wears a bit as year goes on. Especially when Poly makes it a night game and a team like UND gets back at 4am Sunday. I believe some Big Sky coaches have bitched about Poly/Davis/Sac playing night games.

With that being said, I don't know why it would be that extreme as to be Top 14. .

smilo

November 6th, 2019, 12:45 AM

Kennesaw out there potentially stealing bids from....nobody because we are struggling to get even 23 teams. RIP to some CAA 7-5 team probably. Good thing the math planned for this.

Big Sky - No change from prior week 4.5 bid forecast except in pecking order at the top.
#3 Weber State 99.84% (Back-to-back TOP GAIN: +8.47%)
#5 Montana 98.34% (+5.90%)
#7 Sacramento State 84.74% (TOP DROP: -11.10%)
#19 North Dakota 73.22% (-5.37%)
#12 Montana State 46.83% (+4.81%)
---
#10 UC-Davis 0.00% (-4.48%) ELIMINATED - Could get in at 7-5 by knocking out Montana State AND Sacramento State.
#17 Eastern Washington 0.00% (-4.53%) ELIMINATED (technically a very good chance to still go 7-5, but with a D2 win, it's very difficult to see a scenario)
#32 Portland State 0.00% (-5.15%) ELIMINATED
#48 Northern Arizona 0.00% ELIMINATED

Colonial - I'm done predicting. All I can say is that the situation looks much worse with Stony Brook and Albany's odds taking a hit, Elon getting knocked out and Towson still needing to go perfect against solid competition. Even UNH, who should be the third bid, doesn't have an extremely favorable schedule so a ton of doubt remains. I won't comment on the dim prospect of a fourth bid because things will go topsy turvy again. At least there is no way Villanova can lose to Delaware, right? Right?
#2 James Madison 100.0% LOCK
#16 Villanova 91.01% (-6.55%)
#20 New Hampshire 39.62% (TOP GAIN: +20.38%)
#21 Towson 18.25% (+9.23%)
#28 Stony Brook 13.40% (TOP DROP: -40.23%)
#36 Albany 9.46% (-17.03%)
#31 Richmond 1.17%
---
#35 Maine 0.00% ELIMINATED - leaving them here since they have two FBS losses and a reasonable schedule to reach 7-5 but still a major longshot
#26 Elon 0.00% (-29.06%) ELIMINATED - 11 game schedule leaves them hopeless
#45 Delaware 0.00% ELIMINATED

MVFC - Very little has changed since the start of the year, and as projected we are now confidently barreling towards Illinois State-Youngstown. Youngstown @ South Dakota this week could destroy the slim possibility of six.
#1 North Dakota State 100.00% LOCK
#4 South Dakota State 99.78%
#8 Northern Iowa 97.02% (TOP GAIN: +41.78%)
#11 Illinois State 49.62% (TOP DROP: -28.65%)
#24 Youngstown State 23.45% (+2.67%)
#18 Southern Illinois 3.31%

OVC (9 wins) - The first two 'feel' like locks to go at least 8-4 and secure a spot. The other three will all have a shot to get a bid or two. UTM simply must win at Austin Peay (48%) this week. The other paths are quite long. Jacksonville State has a pair of 63% probability games including @TTU this week and will have to win both. EKU must unseat the division leaders on the road this week just to have a chance of a play-in battle with the 'Cocks.
#27 Southeast Missouri State 63.87% (+16.83%)
#50 Austin Peay 35.79% (TOP GAIN: +23.56%)
#34 UT-Martin 0.46% Back from the dead
---
#53 Jacksonville State 0.00% (TOP DROP: -11.40%) Eliminated
#63 Eastern Kentucky 0.00% (-4.52%) Eliminated

Southern - Pumping #FourBidSC very hard, but three from the SoCon is going to be very difficult. No change. If you can't tell from my other posts, I don't quite buy Wofford yet, and I think Furman can't feel comfortable with a loss.
#15 Furman 96.70% (TOP GAIN: +13.73%)
#42 Wofford 55.68% (TOP DROP: -4.05%)
#40 The Citadel 28.32% (+8.69%)
---
#56 Chattanooga 3.50% (-3.50%) ELIMINATED
#76 VMI 0.00 ELIMINATED

Southland - Settling back in at 2.5 bids. Mostly a question of if ANY of the candidates wind up proving themselves worthy even with just four losses.
#14 Central Arkansas 98.24%
#38 Southeastern Louisiana 54.02% (+3.83%)
#44 Sam Houston State 41.30%
#43 McNeese State 26.52% (+6.54%)
#41 Nicholls State 17.93% (TOP GAIN: +9.41%)
#57 Incarnate Word 5.78% (TOP DROP: -19.59%)
#49 Abilene Christian 0.24% Back from the dead
#70 Lamar 0.00% (-3.82%) ELIMINATED

SC State and Kennesaw State have made great strides in the other at-large bid category and now represent nearly a full bid between them, and it could arguably be slightly more than a full bid. While not as high on Kennesaw as I suspect the committee will be, this number reflects that they have a remaining game against Campbell that they will need to get past.

Houndawg

November 6th, 2019, 07:30 AM

Professor Chaos

November 6th, 2019, 07:35 AM

Reign of Terrier

November 6th, 2019, 07:49 AM

Reign of Terrier

November 6th, 2019, 07:51 AM

Professor Chaos

November 6th, 2019, 08:18 AM

Also, this would require more work so this is just a suggestion: If you play in the Big Sky, Big South, CAA, MVFC, OVC, Southern, or Southland, you have an 85% chance in the last decade of making the field if you have 7, let alone 8 division one wins. The bubble is going to be weak and that's something to look at.
Not in a 12 game season. 2013 and 2014 both had 24 team fields in 12 games seasons and the only at-large with 7 wins selected in either of those years was Indiana St in 2014 and the MVFC was maybe the strongest that year as it has ever been (went something like 25-3 out of conference against FCS teams that year including the playoffs). I do think this year might be different with a fair number of bubble teams like UND, SELA, and Wofford only playing 11 games but I would guess no more than 2 or 3 teams at most make it in with only 7 wins and that'll likely include some 7-5 teams in that group like Southern Illinois or UC Davis.

clenz

November 6th, 2019, 08:19 AM

Solid work.

Worth mentioning for MVFC/Youngstown State fans, I think the only team to reach 7 D1 wins and not reach the playoffs in the last decade was Youngstown State (like, 3 times). They are the weakest link, even if they get to 7-5.
YSU, and I've railed them for years, is the ultimate beat up the little sisters of the FCS (NEC, PFL) in the OOC to run up this amazing record, get ranked highly and ride the "name" and high early ranking to try to make a case come playoff time after going 3-5 or 4-4 in MVFC play while going "BUT WE PLAY NDSU SDSU AND UNI!!!!!"...which I hate to sound like RoT with that one, but it's true.

Thankfully the committee sees that and hasn't rewarding them, and I really wish MVFC fans would stop trying to make a case for them, especially this year.

As RoT will point out "they didn't beat the big three" with a loss to UNI SDSU and UNI. They don't beat the good teams.

On top of that they lost by 25 to SIU.

The only win to this point is WIU

The 3 they have left are @ USD, @ ISUb and v ISUr.

I maybe see a path to finishing 4-4 in MVFC play beating USD and ISUb. However, I've got a feeling team morale isn't high right now with the Penguin team. Their best/only hope of beating USD (who I realize just lost to hapless WIU) is hoping that the WIU loss crippled USD's team spirit.

YSU does not deserve a bid this year. Stop the conversation with ISUr and SIU, and I'll be honest I've watched enough ISUr to not really believe they are actually a playoff team either

smilo

November 6th, 2019, 08:27 AM

I think you have UND's percentage for 7 wins rather than 8 wins. They're 5-3 now and need to win out to get to 8 wins so with their road game at Weber this week giving them a single digit percentage chance to win (I would guess) I'd think their percent chance to win out would be a lot lower than 73%.

This is by design. For UNH, SLU, Elon, UND, and I think Wofford, this is calculating the probability of four or fewer losses. More than likely to be enough compared to most 7-5 teams.

Professor Chaos

November 6th, 2019, 08:28 AM

F'N Hawks

November 6th, 2019, 08:48 AM

This is by design. For UNH, SLU, Elon, UND, and I think Wofford, this is calculating the probability of four or fewer losses. More than likely to be enough compared to most 7-5 teams.

UND's actual calculated percent chance of getting to 8 wins is 0.000001%. Now, if SARS breaks out in Ogden today then I up that to 0.01% chance.

Reign of Terrier

November 6th, 2019, 09:20 AM

Not in a 12 game season. 2013 and 2014 both had 24 team fields in 12 games seasons and the only at-large with 7 wins selected in either of those years was Indiana St in 2014 and the MVFC was maybe the strongest that year as it has ever been (went something like 25-3 out of conference against FCS teams that year including the playoffs). I do think this year might be different with a fair number of bubble teams like UND, SELA, and Wofford only playing 11 games but I would guess no more than 2 or 3 teams at most make it in with only 7 wins and that'll likely include some 7-5 teams in that group like Southern Illinois or UC Davis.

The numbers I'm referring to are for *all* teams with 7 D1 wins, regardless if they play 12 games or not. It's a lot harder to get to that number than people think. Lots of teams who schedule 12 games also schedule an extra FBS team or a D2 team. Here's a brief rundown of the teams that didn't make it; I haven't checked if they played 12 games or not, but I can do that later:

Big Sky:
2017: EWU, Sac State, Montana (4-6th place)
2015: North Dakota (fourth place)
2014: Cal Poly (4th place)
2012: Northern Arizona (fourth place)

Big South:
2010 Liberty, 2013 Charleston Southern (played 13 games, had 8 D1 wins, beat a top 10 Coastal, finished 10-3, but didn't get in <glares at KSU>), 2018 Monmouth (see UNI boatrace the year before with no impressive win)

CAA: aw ****, not listing them, basically every 5th and 6th place team since 2012, but also tied-for-fourth Towson was left out

MVFC: 2011 Illinois State (third place in the Valley, before its meteoric rise); 2012-2014 Youngstown State, which finished 6th, 3rd, and tied for fifth; and then 2015-2018, the inverse happened in 3 teams without 7 D1 wins got in

OVC: 2012 EKU, UTM (who beat Memphis???), and Tennessee State;
2013 UTM
2018 EKU

(note: OVC has the worst chance at below 80% while all other conferences on this list are above 80%; I think that could change this year)

Southern:
2012: fourth place Citadel
2013: Chattanooga (co-champ, I think got hosed) and ineligible Georgia Southern
2017: fourth place Western Carolina (played 12 games compared to everyone else at 11 and it was a strong bubble that year)

Southland:
2015: third place UCA (no OOC wins)
2016: Third place SELA (no OOC wins)
2017: fourth place McNeese (only 1 OOC win and no big win in conference)
2018: IW and Lamar got in because the committee is a capricious God.

BEAR

November 6th, 2019, 09:37 AM

Reign of Terrier

November 6th, 2019, 10:00 AM

Southland - Settling back in at 2.5 bids. Mostly a question of if ANY of the candidates wind up proving themselves worthy even with just four losses.
#14 Central Arkansas 98.24%
#38 Southeastern Louisiana 54.02% (+3.83%)
#44 Sam Houston State 41.30%
#43 McNeese State 26.52% (+6.54%)
#41 Nicholls State 17.93% (TOP GAIN: +9.41%)
#57 Incarnate Word 5.78% (TOP DROP: -19.59%)
#49 Abilene Christian 0.24% Back from the dead
#70 Lamar 0.00% (-3.82%) ELIMINATED

UCA 7-2 only has to win ONE of it's last 3 games to get to 8 wins.

McNeese- 6-4. Has 6 division I wins. Has 2 games left at Nicholls (ouch) and at Lamar. Could reach 8 wins with two victories. But they had 9 a couple of years ago and didn't get in.
Nicholls. Has 5 division I wins. Has 3 division I games left. HBU, McNeese, and SLU. Must win out to get to 8 wins.
UIW- Has 5 division I wins. Has 3 division I games left. SFA, New Mexico State (FBS) and UCA. Must win out to get to 8 wins.
SLU- 5-3 has to win out ALL of its games to get to 8 wins. They play UCA this weekend. Lose and there is 0% chance they get to 8 wins. They also have ACU And Nicholls to play. OUch. The earlier Bethune-Cookman game was cancelled leaving them only 11 games.

SHSU- 4-4. Only has 4 division I wins. Only 3 games left = 7 possible division I wins. They play ACU this weekend. But there is no way to reach 8 wins.
ACU 4-4. Same as SHSU

Lamar- Only has 3 division I wins. Only 3 games left. No way to reach 8 division I wins.

It's worth remembering that that McNeese team had a lot of things working against them that year. I'm seeing a lot of people trot them out as an example of "no quality wins, no bid"

But in reality, they're a better example of a team that 1) Didn't finish high enough in conference standing and 2) didn't have a big win.

No way the SLC gets 4 this year, and they barely got 3 in the year of McNeese's exclusion and their bubble is not nearly as strong. Based on what you've presented, my money is probably on UCA and Nicholls getting in. SHSU is on the bubble at 7-4 because brand. SELA gets in if they win out, but I don't see a path otherwise.

Incarnate Word almost certainly won't get in with a loss to Northwestern State, only having 7 D1 wins in 12 games AND their forecast conference standing. McNeese is a loss away from elimination for similar reasons as UIW. Lamar and ACU have no chance.

TL;DR: if you have less than 3 losses in the southland you have a shot, but more than that and you're screwed

BEAR

November 6th, 2019, 10:17 AM

It's worth remembering that that McNeese team had a lot of things working against them that year. I'm seeing a lot of people trot them out as an example of "no quality wins, no bid"

But in reality, they're a better example of a team that 1) Didn't finish high enough in conference standing and 2) didn't have a big win.

No way the SLC gets 4 this year, and they barely got 3 in the year of McNeese's exclusion and their bubble is not nearly as strong. Based on what you've presented, my money is probably on UCA and Nicholls getting in. SHSU is on the bubble at 7-4 because brand. SELA gets in if they win out, but I don't see a path otherwise.

Incarnate Word almost certainly won't get in with a loss to Northwestern State, only having 7 D1 wins in 12 games AND their forecast conference standing. McNeese is a loss away from elimination for similar reasons as UIW. Lamar and ACU have no chance.

TL;DR: if you have less than 3 losses in the southland you have a shot, but more than that and you're screwed

SLU plays UCA this weekend. It could be over for them with a loss. Even a win there and they still have ACU and Nicholls. Ugh. Tough path.
SHSU only has 4 division I wins and are 4-2 in conference. IF they lose ANY of their 3 remaining games they are done but I think they are done because 7 division I wins might be borderline or first four out.
Nicholls has 2 tough games out of their last 3 left but they are ALL at home. Man they are close.
UIW is just left with the toughest schedule to finish the season with an FBS, UCA, and an SFA team that wants to ruin someone's post season hopes.

SLC may be a two team bid league. If SLU and SHSU lose this weekend they are both DONE. Nicholls may catch SLU (if done) not caring about the last game of the season so the Colonels may get in...maybe...

If not, the SLC feasted on itself right out of the playoffs!

smilo

November 6th, 2019, 11:32 AM

The numbers I'm referring to are for *all* teams with 7 D1 wins, regardless if they play 12 games or not. It's a lot harder to get to that number than people think. Lots of teams who schedule 12 games also schedule an extra FBS team or a D2 team. Here's a brief rundown of the teams that didn't make it; I haven't checked if they played 12 games or not, but I can do that later:

Sorry if this is I am explaining things you already understand since you are a long time fan, but this is not about individual teams playing 12 games in a season. Most seasons only have room for 11 games for everybody. Certain calendar years (like 2019) have an extra week that allow for a 12th game, which makes a huge difference in number of wins considered good enough for the bubble in. We won't have ANY 12 game season again until 2024 (maybe some weird exception for playing Hawaii).

The only cited seasons that are of comparable length are 2013 and 2014 as I recall. So we should only evaluate the 7 win conversion rate during these two years, which may be closer to 10% (quick count is 1 for 11 with three teams with better records excluded). As I have documented each week, I do think we will have about three 7-5 teams (plus UND and maybe SLU or UNH), but I am trying to calculate how long until teams are 'safe'. At the end of the day, we may barely get enough teams with eight wins. Could have between 0 and 3 teams getting in at 7-5.

In 2013:
Delaware, W&M, and SIU (all power conference 7-5) plus UTM and UCA (mid-tier 7-5) all did not get in while on SHSU (7-4) did. Only SHSU would meet the criteria. Chatty would have met my lock criteria at 8-4, but the Big South stole a bid.

In 2014:
One out of six 7-5 teams in a power conference got in. 8-4 Lamar and Idaho State were both excluded in favor of 7-5 Indiana State

The current bubble is forecast to be weaker than both of these years so more 7-5 teams will potentially get in, but history doesn't support this.

Reign of Terrier

November 6th, 2019, 11:50 AM

Sorry if this is I am explaining things you already understand since you are a long time fan, but this is not about individual teams playing 12 games in a season. Most seasons only have room for 11 games for everybody. Certain calendar years (like 2019) have an extra week that allow for a 12th game, which makes a huge difference in number of wins considered good enough for the bubble in. We won't have ANY 12 game season again until 2024 (maybe some weird exception for playing Hawaii).

The only cited seasons that are of comparable length are 2013 and 2014 as I recall.

Edit: we need to compare 7-FCS-win teams and come up with a probability to better predict. 8 is a lock in most conferences, but 7 is more ambiguous and we need direct comparison.

Yes, but the thing is with those 12 game seasons, lots of programs use them for revenue-building purposes (FBS games or hosting a D2 program). So even though many teams opt to play 12 games, if you discard FBS losses and sub-D1 wins, it's practically the same resumes. Let's look at those two years among the top 7 conferences, for point of reference:

Big Sky:
2013: All 4 teams with 7 D1 wins made it into the playoffs
2014: 3 of 4 did (4th place Cal Poly left out)
Total: 7 of 8, which is about 88%

Big South
2013: 1 of 2 Left out: Charleston Southern, who was 10-3 but had only 8 D1 wins
2014: 2 of 2
Total: 3 of 4= 75%

CAA
2013: 3 of 5 (the 6th place team, William and Mary had 7 wins but the 5th place team ahead of them did not)
2014: 4 of 5 (5th place William and Mary again)
Total: 7 of 10, 70%

MVFC:
2013: 2 of 3 (Youngstown State)
2014: 5 of 6 (Youngstown State)
Total: 7 of 9=~77%

OVC:
2013: 3 of 4 (only 2013 UTM Martin who lost to the top 3)
2014: 2 of 2
total: 5/6=83%

Southern:
2013= 2 of 3 (not counting Georgia Southern, who was ineligible)
2014= 1 of 1 (the conference was a dumpster that year)
total: 3 of 4= 75%

Southland:
2013: 3 of 3
2014: 3 of 3 (I don't think this is predictive because FWIW)
Total=6 of 6 (100%)

So overall, in 2013-2014 there were 51 teams in those two years who had 7 D1 wins. 38 got playoff bids. That's about a 75% chance.

Reign of Terrier

November 6th, 2019, 11:57 AM

In 2013:
Delaware, W&M, and SIU (all power conference 7-5) plus UTM and UCA (mid-tier 7-5) all did not get in while on SHSU (7-4) did. Only SHSU would meet the criteria. Chatty would have met my lock criteria at 8-4, but the Big South stole a bid.

In 2014:
One out of six 7-5 teams in a power conference got in. 8-4 Lamar and Idaho State were both excluded in favor of 7-5 Indiana State

The current bubble is forecast to be weaker than both of these years so more 7-5 teams will potentially get in, but history doesn't support this.

Neither Lamar or Idaho State had 7 D1 wins in 2014. Southern Illinois also didn't have 7 D1 wins that year. Delaware and William and Mary didn't get in because they finished behind Villanova which didn't have 7 division one wins and there's just no way the committee puts them in.

You're right that we have to compare 7 win records and I think there are some good explanations (SHSU was coming off two big playoff runs).

I think Chattanooga is the only one who got robbed.

So again, 7 D1 wins +conference standing is a good predictor IMO

McNeese72

November 6th, 2019, 12:18 PM

Reign of Terrier

November 6th, 2019, 01:11 PM

Nope, in 2017 McNeese went 9-2 with 8 Div I wins and didn't make the playoffs.

Doc

I didn't know that McNeese played in the MVFC, otherwise the original post is correct

Reign of Terrier

November 6th, 2019, 01:21 PM

If you don't play in the MVFC, losing 5 games will almost certainly be a deal-breaker.

Teams from the Big Sky, Big South, CAA, MVFC, OVC, Socon, and Southland that endured 5 losses in the regular season since 2010:
2010 Coastal Carolina (autobid)
2013 Furman (Autobid)
2014 Indiana State (don't know how they got in tbh)
2015 Western Illinois (two top 10 wins)
2016 Illinois State (win over P5 Northwestern)
2018 UNI (I'm not really sure what the argument was for them?)

Part of the reason I'm high on the Citadel getting in at 7-5 is because they are very comparable to 2016 Illinois State (some mediocre losses, but a good P5 win).

I think any forecast that has a team in with 5 losses should justify it on the grounds of 1) top 10 wins and or 2) P5 wins, because it looks very unlikely that a non-autobid 5-loss team gets in.

By my count, the only 7-5 team (for a 12 game schedule) to get in without an autobid was Indiana State

van

November 6th, 2019, 02:03 PM

I think any forecast that has a team in with 5 losses should justify it on the grounds of 1) top 10 wins and or 2) P5 wins, because it looks very unlikely that a non-autobid 5-loss team gets in.
how likely is it there will be 10 non-autobid teams with only 4 loses? food for thought

Reign of Terrier

November 6th, 2019, 02:54 PM

how likely is it there will be 10 non-autobid teams with only 4 loses? food for thought

Right now I count 15 with less than 4 right now and a realistic shot at the playoffs
Assuming these are the Autobids:
Weber, Monmouth, JMU, NDSU, CCSU, AP, Patriot, San Diego, Furman, UCA

Less than 4 losses with 3 games left:
Sac State
Montana
Montana State
Kennesaw
UNH
Nova
North Dakota
SC State
SDSU
UNI
Illinois State
SEMO
Wofford
SELA
Nicholls

Also, even though I've been saying that the MVFC gets 5 in ad nauseum, the more I think it's at least possible that one of Southern Illinois/Illinois State gets left out at 7-5. Yes, yes, I know they're in the Valley. But one would be 5th place with comparable resumes to other teams. There's lots of examples of 4th and 5th place teams being left out of the field, even with FBS wins. Not saying it for sure happens, but it's possible. Really, the CAA getting 3 7-win teams that were outside of the top 3 last year was sort of remarkable and they all ate it, so I wouldn't be surprised if the committee is less generous in general to any one conference. I could see it going either way with the 5th place MVFC team

Professor Chaos

November 6th, 2019, 03:37 PM

Right now I count 15 with less than 4 right now and a realistic shot at the playoffs
Assuming these are the Autobids:
Weber, Monmouth, JMU, NDSU, CCSU, AP, Patriot, San Diego, Furman, UCA

Less than 4 losses with 3 games left:
Sac State
Montana
Montana State
Kennesaw
UNH
Nova
North Dakota
SC State
SDSU
UNI
Illinois State
SEMO
Wofford
SELA
Nicholls

Also, even though I've been saying that the MVFC gets 5 in ad nauseum, the more I think it's at least possible that one of Southern Illinois/Illinois State gets left out at 7-5. Yes, yes, I know they're in the Valley. But one would be 5th place with comparable resumes to other teams. There's lots of examples of 4th and 5th place teams being left out of the field, even with FBS wins. Not saying it for sure happens, but it's possible. Really, the CAA getting 3 7-win teams that were outside of the top 3 last year was sort of remarkable and they all ate it, so I wouldn't be surprised if the committee is less generous in general to any one conference. I could see it going either way with the 5th place MVFC team
Illinois St should and will get left out at if they finish 7-5. SIU at 7-5 would have a more worthy resume than most teams on that list if they only had 4 losses IMO. I doubt the committee will care too much about who's in Xth place in each conference though. They only look at (at least they're supposed to only look at) overall win/loss record and strength of schedule. So, especially in a conference with unbalanced schedules like the Big Sky or CAA, it's not a foregone conclusion that all teams in front of a particular team will need to get at-large bids before that team does.

clenz

November 6th, 2019, 03:58 PM

Reign of Terrier

November 6th, 2019, 04:16 PM

Well UNI finished 3rd in the MVFC at 5-3 in conference.

OOC losses in Missoula and FBS Iowa.

I get the record wasn't good...but....5-3 3rd place MVFC team isn't getting let out.Yeah, I didn't think it was a bad reason, just didn't know what it was

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

Catbooster

November 6th, 2019, 05:00 PM

Big Sky - No change from prior week 4.5 bid forecast except in pecking order at the top.
#3 Weber State 99.84% (Back-to-back TOP GAIN: +8.47%)
#5 Montana 98.34% (+5.90%)
#7 Sacramento State 84.74% (TOP DROP: -11.10%)
#19 North Dakota 73.22% (-5.37%)
#12 Montana State 46.83% (+4.81%)
---
#10 UC-Davis 0.00% (-4.48%) ELIMINATED - Could get in at 7-5 by knocking out Montana State AND Sacramento State.
#17 Eastern Washington 0.00% (-4.53%) ELIMINATED (technically a very good chance to still go 7-5, but with a D2 win, it's very difficult to see a scenario)
#32 Portland State 0.00% (-5.15%) ELIMINATED
#48 Northern Arizona 0.00% ELIMINATED

Now that there are only 3 games left it is starting to get clearer for the Big Sky (but AGS):

Weber 7-2/5-0 (2 FBS losses) remaining games: vs UND, @UM, vs ISU
I expect they will be favored in all 3 games. Should finish 10-2/8-0

Sac State 6-3/4-1 (2 FBS losses, NAIA win) @NAU, @ISU, vs UC Davis
Should be favored in all 3 games, should finish 9-3/7-1
But then again, we don't know how badly Kevin Thomson is hurt xchinscratchx

UM 7-2/4-1 (FBS loss) vs Idaho, vs Weber, @MSU
Probably favored in all but the Weber game, although Cat/Griz can be hard to predict Odds probably say they finish 9-3/6-2
But we all know the Cats will win that last game. Right? So really 8-4/5-3 xthumbsupx

MSU 6-3/3-2 (FBS loss) @UNC, @UC Davis, vs UM
Probably favored in the first 2 games Odds say finish at 8-4/5-3
But remember, we agreed that the Cats will beat the Griz. So really 9-3/6-2 xcoffeex

No one else in the Big Sky can reach 8 DI wins.

Edit to add: I might as well add UND here, since they're still quasi-Big Sky this year:
UND 5-3 finish with @Weber, vs UNC, vs SUU Should be favored in the last 2 games. Probably finish 7-4, so don't make the 8 games we're shooting for here.

Grizalltheway

November 6th, 2019, 05:13 PM

Now that there are only 3 games left it is starting to get clearer for the Big Sky (but AGS):

Weber 7-2/5-0 (2 FBS losses) remaining games: vs UND, @UM, vs ISU
I expect they will be favored in all 3 games. Should finish 10-2/8-0

Sac State 6-3/4-1 (2 FBS losses, NAIA win) @NAU, @ISU, vs UC Davis
Should be favored in all 3 games, should finish 9-3/7-1
But then again, we don't know how badly Kevin Thomson is hurt xchinscratchx

UM 7-2/4-1 (FBS loss) vs Idaho, vs Weber, @MSU
Probably favored in all but the Weber game, although Cat/Griz can be hard to predict Odds probably say they finish 9-3/6-2
But we all know the Cats will win that last game. Right? So really 8-4/5-3 xthumbsupx

MSU 6-3/3-2 (FBS loss) @UNC, @UC Davis, vs UM
Probably favored in the first 2 games Odds say finish at 8-4/5-3
But remember, we agreed that the Cats will beat the Griz. So really 9-3/6-2 xcoffeex

No one else in the Big Sky can reach 8 DI wins.

Edit to add: I might as well add UND here, since they're still quasi-Big Sky this year:
UND 5-3 finish with @Weber, vs UNC, vs SUU Should be favored in the last 2 games. Probably finish 7-4, so don't make the 8 games we're shooting for here.

Unless Aaron Rodgers makes a guest appearance at QB, you're toast. xcoffeex

Catbooster

November 6th, 2019, 05:40 PM

Unless Aaron Rodgers makes a guest appearance at QB, you're toast. xcoffeex
Maybe Bryce Sterk and Troy Andersen will make a few guest appearances in your backfield. xnodx

RabidRabbit

November 6th, 2019, 05:58 PM

Grizzlies82

November 6th, 2019, 06:27 PM

Has a losing MVFC record team ever made the play-offs? I know that 4-4 MVFC record teams make it, especially if have quality (other play-off participants or FBS) wins, but if can't even win enough to get to 4-4, why select if all wins are over <63 scholarship teams (NEC, Pioneer), or teams always at bottom of conference standings? IMHO, agree with Clenz, if IL St or YSU can't get a winning record in conference, they have no more business in the play-offs than WIU.

Don't mean to be rude but nobody outside the MVFC gives a damn where a team ends up in your conference. When it comes to playoff inclusion or seeding a team's overall record is all that really matters.

A 4-4 conference record combined with 3 solid non-conference wins will look pretty good. Typically it will be viewed better than, or comparable to, a MVFC 6-2 record with two or three non-conference losses.

smilo

November 10th, 2019, 04:14 PM

While we saw many serious-ish teams eliminated this week (Jax State, UT-Martin, YSU, SBU), this was actually out single biggest week in teams forecast to meet the criteria. 17.73 (+1.99!). Leaves only about two spots for five loss teams/Kennesaw, which may continue to decline

Big Sky - No change from prior week 4.5 bid forecast. Montana State @ UC-Davis could definitely change up the pecking order and make the final week meaningful for everybody.
#4 Weber State 100.00% LOCK
#5 Montana 100.00% LOCK
#6 Sacramento State 91.30% (+6.56%)
#17 North Dakota 76.50% (+3.28%)
#12 Montana State 60.35% (TOP GAIN: +13.52%)
---
#11 UC-Davis 0.00% ELIMINATED - Could get in at 7-5 by knocking out Montana State AND Sacramento State ~17% probability.

Colonial - As I mentioned elsewhere, UNH/Albany is an elimination game setting up for a potential play-in game for a longshot fourth bid between UNH and Maine (obviously 7-5 Stony Brook is much less appealing than 7-5 Maine so the SUNY War won't be a play-in.) The possibility of a fourth bid relies on the precarious assumption that Towson wins both games, which is still considered less likely than not. Somewhat likely that the Battle for Brice-Cowell Musket winner steals Towson's spot rather than, say, Kennesaw's.
#2 James Madison 100.00% LOCK
#15 Villanova 100.00% (+8.99%) LOCK
#16 Towson 42.16% (TOP GAIN: +23.91%)
#32 Albany 29.70% (+20.24%)
#26 New Hampshire 21.15% (TOP DROP: -18.47%)
---
#20 Maine 0.00% ELIMINATED - leaving them here since they have two FBS losses and a reasonable schedule to reach 7-5 but still a major longshot
---
#31 Richmond 0.00% ELIMINATED
#45 Stony Brook 0.00% (-13.40%) ELIMINATED

MVFC - Six bid MVFC confirmed destroyed. Five feels all but certain, and this is the source of the first five loss bid (leaving Maine/UC-Davis hopes hanging on my a thread)
#1 North Dakota State 100.00% LOCK
#9 Illinois State 99.38% (TOP GAIN: +49.46%)
#7 Northern Iowa 98.66%
#8 South Dakota State 93.40% (-6.38%)
#18 Southern Illinois 4.35%
#42 Youngstown State 0.00% (TOP DROP: -23.45) ELIMINATED

OVC (9 wins) - And now it feels like we know the (exactly) two bids. Even if APSU loses to Murray, I think they would still be barely in the field. I guess Tennessee Tech has a reasonable shot to be 8-4 too, but it doesn't feel like they have a path with no marquee wins, so I won't add them back.
#22 Southeast Missouri State 79.21% (+15.34%)
#40 Austin Peay 69.92% (TOP GAIN: +34.13%)
#34 UT-Martin 0.00% ELIMINATED

Southern - Furman still has the possibility of being the next Chattanooga (being left out at 8-4) should they lose to Wofford so I hesitate to call this a lock given the conference's overall struggles. Exactly where we were a week ago at about 1.5 bids though Wofford feels to be in better position.
#19 Furman 100.00% (+3.30%)
#31 Wofford 69.92% (TOP GAIN: +14.24%)
#41 The Citadel 24.91% (TOP DROP: -3.41%)

Southland - What a roller coaster! We are back up to almost certainly three known bids if no one slips up in an easy win, and McNeese feels very much alive if they can KO Nicholls next week.
#21 Central Arkansas 93.54% (-4.70%)
#23 Southeastern Louisiana 90.48% (+36.46%)
#30 Sam Houston State 81.90% (TOP GAIN: +40.60%)
#39 McNeese State 28.88%
#33 Nicholls State 17.36%
#64 Incarnate Word 0.00% (TOP DROP: -5.78%) ELIMINATED
#53 Abilene Christian 0.00% ELIMINATED

The above gives bid allocations give us about 23 bids including a half bid for Big Sky #5 and SoCon #2. If both of those team make it (increasing it to a whole bid), that would leave McNeese, Maine/UNH/Albany, and Kennesaw State (if they don't win the Big South) out of the field though if they win out. I feel more certain that MEAC #2 with 3+ losses will not be invited, and UC-Davis feels more likely to throw a wrench into this.

smilo

November 20th, 2019, 07:15 PM

You don't really need me for calculations this week but here's the remaining picture. Our beginning of season criteria came pretty close! Furman at 8 wins remains a big point of debate, but if the original criteria were adjusted to also mark 7 win MVFC teams as a successful outcome, we could have been forecasting the full field this entire time!

I tend to think Albany at 8 wins maaaaaaaaay be up for debate but not too bad for something so simplistic. In my mind, Furman, Albany, 7-5 Maine and Kennesaw are up for two spots unless Nicholls pulls the upset (or if North Dakota gets upset!) The guidelines would say the first two are in, but I think Maine should be ahead of Albany as I have stated elsewhere (H2H, schedule, new QB/coaching succeeding late). May special circumstances prevail! Hope the inclusion of my subjective forecast doesn't bother anyone.

Big Sky - To protect myself, I am assigning EWU a 1% subjective bid probability, but all rests with North Dakota which very nearly controls its own destiny.
#5 Weber State 100.00% LOCK
#3 Montana 100.00% LOCK
#4 Sacramento State 100.00% (+8.70%) LOCK
#10 Montana State 100.00% (Back-to-back TOP GAIN: +39.65%) LOCK
#20 North Dakota 82.00% (+5.50%) - subjective bid probability 75%.

Colonial
#2 James Madison 100.00% LOCK
#13 Villanova 100.00% LOCK
#12 Towson 72.00% (+29.84%)
#19 Albany 61.00% (TOP GAIN: +31.30%) - subjective bid probability 45%
---
#18 Maine 0.00% ELIMINATED - 54.00% of 7-5 - subjective bid probability of 40%.
---
#28 New Hampshire 21.15% (Back-to-back TOP DROP: -21.15%) ELIMINATED

MVFC
#1 North Dakota State 100.00% LOCK
#6 South Dakota State 100.00% (TOP GAIN: +6.60%) LOCK
#11 Illinois State 100.00% LOCK
#8 Northern Iowa 98.00%
#15 Southern Illinois 5.00% - subjective bid probability 90%

OVC (9 wins)
#33 Austin Peay 94.00% (Back-to-back TOP GAIN: +24.08%)
#23 Southeast Missouri State 92.00% (+12.79%)
---
#36 UT-Martin 0.00% ELIMINATED - 1.00% chance of 8-4 with FBS win

Southern - Furman still has the possibility of being the next Chattanooga (being left out at 8-4) should they lose to Wofford so I hesitate to call this a lock given the conference's overall struggles. Exactly where we were a week ago at about 1.5 bids though Wofford feels to be in better position.
#24 Wofford 69.92% (Back-to-back TOP GAIN: +30.08%) LOCK
#26 Furman 100.00% SOFT LOCK - subjective probability 75%
---
#43 The Citadel 0.00% (Back-to-back TOP DROP: -24.91%) ELIMINATED - 36.00% of 7-5 with FBS P5 win - subjective bid probability 10%
#42 Chattanooga ELIMINATED - 72.00% of 7-5 - subjective bid probability 5%

Southland- Sam Houston State with the loss of the year! They had a softer final two games than even North Dakota though North Dakota would effectively tie them if they fail in their last game.
#22 Southeastern Louisiana 100.00% (TOP GAIN: +9.52%) LOCK (Others may call soft lock. 96% subjective bid probability)
#25 Central Arkansas 100.00% (+6.46%) LOCK
#37 Nicholls State 25.00% (+9.52%)
---
#52 Sam Houston State 0.00% (TOP DROP: -81.90%) ELIMINATED
#48 McNeese State 0.00% (-28.88%) ELIMINATED

I assigned a 60 percent subjective bid probability to Kennesaw State. There's a lot of uncertainty there that the 'average' outcome of four other games can't easily predict for the final bid, and there is no telling how the committee will treat this. Unfortunately, the use of the coaches poll in the selection room probably means this percentage is significantly understated.